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Quantificação dos efeitos das barreiras não-tarifárias sobre as exportações brasileiras de carne bovina. / Quantification of non-tariff barriers effects on brazilian beef exports.Silvia Helena Galvao de Miranda 14 September 2001 (has links)
Este estudo teve como meta propor uma metodologia que permitisse avaliar, quantitativamente, os impactos de barreiras não-tarifárias (BNTs), em especial as técnicas e sanitárias, sobre os volumes e preços das vendas externas de carne bovina brasileira. O período de análise compreendeu desde o mês de janeiro de 1992 a dezembro de 2000, tendo-se considerado dois mercados especificamente: o dos cortes especiais de traseiro e dianteiro destinados à União Européia e o do corned beef para os EUA. Os dados básicos utilizados foram cedidos pela Associação Brasileira de Indústrias Exportadoras de Carnes Industrializadas (ABIEC). A hipótese deste trabalho foi a de que as questões técnicas/sanitárias interferem nas vendas externas de carnes bovinas do Brasil. Essa interferência dá-se sobre os volumes transacionados, os preços de negociação ou sobre ambos. Para a consecução do objetivo exposto foi, inicialmente, realizado um levantamento dos métodos já utilizados para mensurar efeitos de barreiras comerciais. Não foi encontrado um instrumental específico que atendesse à proposta deste trabalho. Assim, optou-se por construir um modelo reduzido para vendas externas desses produtos. Foram estimadas regressões visando identificar a influência das principais variáveis de oferta e demanda domésticas e da demanda internacional. A partir desses modelos, foi conduzida uma análise do comportamento dos resíduos, para identificação de outliers que pudessem refletir impactos de eventos de natureza sanitária ou de outros com caráter exógeno, não captados pelas variáveis explicativas. Uma vez constatados resíduos anormais, associados a eventos de interesse para este estudo, foram ajustados modelos de intervenção, de forma a permitir obter estimativas desses impactos diretamente sobre as séries de preços e volumes e estabelecer o padrão de influência da intervenção. Para a seleção das variáveis explicativas e dos eventos de interesse elaborou-se uma descrição detalhada sobre o mercado exportador do produto e seus fatores determinantes, domésticos e externos. Além da revisão de literatura, foram aplicados questionários e realizadas entrevistas junto ao setor exportador dessas carnes. Verificou-se que grande parte das variações nos volumes e preços das vendas externas foram explicadas pelas variáveis representativas dos fundamentos do mercado, como taxa de câmbio, preço do boi gordo, renda do Brasil, preços de países concorrentes, entre outras. Foram obtidos coeficientes de determinação elevados tanto para os modelos para cortes especiais quanto para os de corned beef. Para o volume e preços de exportação do corned beef destinado aos EUA também mostraram-se significativos os coeficientes dos preços médios de exportação brasileira desse produto para a UE. A maior parte da variação naqueles preços foi explicada por variáveis da demanda externa. No caso do modelo de intervenção para preços dos cortes especiais, a intervenção em março de 1995 mostrou-se significativa, com efeito de reduzir os preços, durante três meses. Este efeito pode estar relacionado à proibição das importações européias de carne de São Paulo e Minas Gerais naquele período. De modo geral, as intervenções relacionadas a eventos sanitários não se mostraram significativas ou não apresentaram resultados conclusivos. Possivelmente, a utilização de dados regionalizados para Circuitos Pecuários poderia gerar resultados mais claros sobre os impactos desses eventos. / This research aimed to develop a methodology to evaluate quantitatively non-tariff barriers impacts, mainly technical and sanitary, on the quantities and prices of Brazilian beef foreign sales. The analysis was implemented for the period from January/1992 to December/2000, considering two specific markets: European Union market for special beef cuts (chilled or frozen.) and the United States market for corned beef. Export basic data were provided by Associação Brasileira de Indústrias Exportadoras de Carnes Industrializadas (ABIEC). This studys hypothesis was that technical/sanitary issues influence the Brazilian beef exports. The impact is expected either on transaction volumes, prices or both. In order to reach the objective the methods already employed to measure trade barriers effects were reviewed. No specific instrument to apply to this study proposition was found. Then, a reduced form model was built to explain the products external sales. Regressions were estimated in order to identify the influence of main domestic supply and demand variables as well as international demand factors. The residuals of those models were analyzed to indentify the outliers that could reflect impacts of sanitary and other exogenous events, not measured by the explanatory variables. Since abnormal residuals were found, that could be related to relevant events. Intervention models were adjusted to permit to obtain impact estimates directly on prices and quantities series and stablish the intervention influence pattern. A detailed description on beef export market and its determinants, both internal and external was presented. Besides the literature review, questionnaires were applied to beef exporting industries. Results show that a great part of external sales volume and price variations were due to market fundamental variables, like exchange rate, cattle price, Brazil income, prices of competitive countries and others. High determination coefficients were observed both for special cuts and corned beef models. Coefficients for average prices of Brazilian corned beef exports to European Union were significant to explain prices and volumes of corned beef exports to USA. Most of those prices variations were due to external demand variables. In the intervention model analysis for special cuts, the 1995 March point was significant, indicating a reduction effect on those product prices, for three months. This effect can be related to the embargo of European imports to the São Paulo and Minas Gerais States beef exports, during that period. In general, interventions results related to sanitary events were not significant or conclusive. Possibly, data regionalization for Cattle Circuits could generate clear results on those events impacts.
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CREATIVE ECONOMY AS STRATEGY OF LIVING WITH SEMIARID OF CEARÃ STATE: THE CASE OF HANDECRAFT BOBBIN LACE. / Economia criativa como estratÃgia de convivÃncia com o semiÃrido cearense: o caso do artesanato renda de bilroJoÃo Luis Josino Soares 15 February 2013 (has links)
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico / Through the case of tenants from Apiques community, the settlement in the city of MaceiÃ, Itapipoca-CearÃ, this study aims to analyze the economic and cultural aspects of bobbin lace made by rural women as a strategic way of living in the semiarid. In a qualitative and quantitative approach, it was used a data collected during primary origin experiences carried along to tenants and employees by applying a round of conversation workshop, interviews and pre-designed forms to achieve the proposed objectives of this study. The craftswomen perform agricultural work in the rainy season periods and focus not on land that combine time in their daily household chores and bobbin lace, is being performed in two ways: individually and collective group of women lace makers. Regarding the production cycle in the community, it has been directly related to climate variations, such the distribution of the handicraft a disability is perceived, the dependence of middlemen who are the current sales channels, but not provide much gain on the sale of the handicraft. Another factor is the lack of knowledge by consumer market, which is generated by the distance of the main tourist centers and the informality that the activity has to the community. Despite lower annual earnings, this economic activity demonstrates profitability, proving profitability for craftswomen that develop this work. The bobbin lace retains characteristics of its origin where women sit to the pad to produce each piece by hand. It is necessary to identify new market channels and create a local entity able to maintain higher production levels and bargaining power, as well as the stimulation of specific capabilities of management, leadership and market studies. Therefore, with the spread of the Creative Economy emerges a new economic thinking activity taking into consideration the cultural richness basis on the sites in Brazil. / Por intermÃdio do caso das rendeiras da comunidade Apiques, no assentamento Maceià â MunicÃpio de Itapipoca-Cearà â este estudo tem o objetivo de analisar aspectos culturais e econÃmicos da renda de bilro, trabalho realizado por mulheres camponesas como forma estratÃgica de convivÃncia com o semiÃrido. Em uma abordagem qualitativa e quantitativa, foram utilizados dados de origem primÃria coletados durante vivÃncias realizadas juntamente Ãs rendeiras e empregadas com a aplicaÃÃo de oficina em formato de roda de conversa, formulÃrios e entrevistas previamente elaborados para atingir aos objetivos propostos deste estudo. As artesÃs desempenham trabalhos agrÃrios nos perÃodos em que concentram a quadra chuvosa e nÃo agrÃrios, em que aliam em seu cotidiano as atividades domÃsticas e a renda de bilro, esta sendo desempenhada de duas formas: individualmente e por grupo de mulheres rendeiras. No que concerne ao ciclo produtivo da renda na comunidade, tem-se que a produÃÃo està diretamente relacionada Ãs variaÃÃes climÃticas do local. Quanto à distribuiÃÃo das peÃas, existe uma deficiÃncia, caso este percebido na dependÃncia de atravessadores, que sÃo os canais de venda atuais, mas nÃo proporcionam tanto ganho na venda das peÃas. Outro fator à o nÃo conhecimento do mercado consumidor, fato este ensejado pela distÃncia dos principais centros turÃsticos e a informalidade que a atividade tem para a comunidade. Apesar de ganhos anuais baixos, a atividade demonstra rentabilidade econÃmica, comprovando lucratividade para as rendeiras que a desenvolvem. A renda de bilro mantÃm caracterÃsticas de sua origem em que mulheres se sentam à almofada para produzir artesanalmente cada peÃa. Fazem-se necessÃrias a identificaÃÃo de novos canais de comercializaÃÃo e a criaÃÃo de uma entidade local que seja capaz de manter maior volume produtivo e poder de negociaÃÃo, bem como o estÃmulo de capacitaÃÃes especÃficas da gestÃo, lideranÃa e estudos de mercado. Portanto, com a difusÃo da Economia Criativa, surge um novo pensamento econÃmico das atividades, levando em consideraÃÃo a base na riqueza cultural das localidades no Brasil.
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Direito à cidade : respostas do Estado em torno da moradia e sua função socialAlmeida, Ana Flávia Alves de Oliveira 17 June 2016 (has links)
Brazilian urbanization, due to late industrialization, was defined by capital dominance and its impact on the working class, restraining it from being a part of urban land, resulting in the social-spatial segregation still seen nowadays. The difficulties in access to the city, especially the rights to housing and its dilemmas related to a social-spatial segregation caused by the state‘s inefficiency in taking action, regarding the theme, are discussed in this study. The general objective was to theoretically analyze 'the right to the city' in Brazil in relation to the right to housing and its social function. In a specific way, it aimed to reflect on the process of commercialization of urban spaces and how it interferes with the right to housing in Brazil; it also evaluates Brazilian housing legislation regarding the principles of the social function of ownership and identify which are the State‘s actions referring to the right of housing and urban land after the publication of law 10.257/2001. Methodologically the qualitative approach of exploratory nature was used, gathering a biographic (various publications) and documental (decrees, laws and governmental programs available online) research. The data was collected through marking and analyzing the researched material using the content analysis technique. The referential adopted in this research is dialectical and historical materialism, mediating quantitative and qualitative data. As main conclusions of the study, the results show a confirmation of the listed hypotheses proving that the process of urbanization performed by Brazilian governments strengthen the cutting capitalist real estate, which keeps discarding the most impoverished out of the right to housing and reproducing the historical social-spatial segregation in Brazil. Another important result is that even after the City‘s Statute approval, which promotes an enlargement of a legal framework in relation to a city‘s social function and property, it is noticeable that the housing policies developed by the state are not being granted or respected. Its actions are, essentially, geared towards financing the housing policies which attend the market and not specifically the social needs of who has an income of up to 3 minimum wages, where the majority of Brazilian housing shortage is concentrated. / A urbanização brasileira, provocada pela industrialização tardia, foi marcada pelo domínio do capital e os seus rebatimentos na classe trabalhadora, impedindo que esta se apropriasse da parcela de solo urbano e provocando a segregação socioespacial que se observa até a contemporaneidade. As dificuldades no acesso ao direito à cidade, com foco no direito de morar e os dilemas pertinentes à segregação socioespacial provocados pela ineficiência das respostas do Estado, são problematizadas neste estudo. Seu objetivo geral foi analisar teoricamente o direito à cidade, no Brasil, no que se refere ao direito à moradia e sua função social. De modo específico, teve como objetivo refletir sobre a mercantilização dos espaços urbanos e como estes interferem no direito à moradia no Brasil; avaliar a legislação habitacional brasileira considerando-se o princípio da função social da propriedade e identificar quais são as respostas do Estado referentes ao direito à moradia e à terra urbanizada no período posterior à promulgação da Lei 10.257/2001. Metodologicamente, adotou-se a abordagem qualitativa de natureza exploratória, englobando a pesquisa bibliográfica (publicações de diversas naturezas) e documental (decretos, leis e programas governamentais disponíveis em meio eletrônico). Os dados foram coletados por meio de fichamentos do material pesquisado e analisados por meio da técnica de análise de conteúdo. O referencial adotado na presente pesquisa é o materialismo histórico dialético, contemplando a articulação de dados quantitativos e qualitativos. Os resultados evidenciaram a confirmação das hipóteses elencadas comprovando que a urbanização promovida pelos governos brasileiros fortalece o mercado imobiliário de corte capitalista, que continua alijando os segmentos mais pauperizados do direito à moradia e reproduzindo a segregação socioespacial historicamente existente no Brasil. Outro resultado importante é que mesmo após a promulgação do Estatuto da Cidade a função social da cidade e propriedade não é garantida ou respeitada nas políticas habitacionais desenvolvidas pelo Estado. Suas respostas estão voltadas, predominantemente para o financiamento de políticas habitacionais que atendem as necessidades de mercado e não especificamente a demanda social da população com renda de 0 até 3 salários mínimos – faixa em que se concentra o maior déficit habitacional brasileiro.
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Comercialização como estratégia de reprodução camponesa no Alto Sertão sergipanoBarreto, Ivan Siqueira 19 February 2014 (has links)
In Brazil, the contemporary peasant stemmed from a chapter of resistance to conservative proposals, passing through the slavery period, through the frustrating Law of Lands (1850), through the Getúlio Vargas´ developmental government, until the current engagement in the period of agribusiness predation of human and natural resources. This research had the backcountry peasants as subjects in focus to understand one of their reproduction strategies in their |territory|, which is the commercialization. The settlements of Curralinho with 30 families, Dom José Brandão with 41 families and Flor da Serra with 41 families were examined. All of them located on the territory of Sergipe´s high-hinterland, in the county of Poço Redondo. The study´s range proved to be pertinent by understanding that the local problems correspond and reproduce a global and structural field dynamics in the Sergipe´s hinterland. The peasant, person who has not had as historical heritage, an active participation in markets, has accumulated through time certain challenges for his/her insertion. Therefore, the study´s objective is to analyze how the peasant commercialization contributes to the social reproduction of the settled peasants in the county of Poço Redondo. As well, it is also the study´s objective to analyze how the territory is defined and relates to other sectors in society, developing itself through the commercialization that, concretely, we divide into direct sales, indirect sales, and with the institutional markets, by means of state´s public policies. For that, two methodological steps with different amplitudes were used: the first one was a more general look into the participative methodologies, reunions, group dynamics and participative diagnosis; the second one was developed in thirty selected questionnaires. / No Brasil, o camponês contemporâneo procedeu de um capítulo de resistência às propostas conservadoras, passando pelo período da escravidão à frustrante Lei de Terras (1850); pelo governo desenvolvimentista de Getúlio Vargas até à atual participação pelo período do agronegócio predatório dos recursos humanos e naturais. Esta pesquisa teve o camponês sertanejo como sujeito contemporâneo, enquanto foco para entender uma das suas estratégias de reprodução no seu território, que é a comercialização. Foram examinados os assentamentos de Curralinho, com 50 famílias; Dom José Brandão, com 41 famílias; e Flor da Serra, com 41 famílias. Todos localizados no território do Alto Sertão sergipano no município de Poço Redondo. A abrangência do estudo mostrou-se pertinente ao entender-se que os problemas locais correspondem e reproduzem uma dinâmica global e estrutural do campo no sertão sergipano. O camponês, sujeito que não teve enquanto herança histórica a habilidade com a participação ativa nos mercados, acumulou ao longo do tempo certo desafios para sua inserção. Portanto, o objetivo do estudo é analisar como a comercialização camponesa contribui para a reprodução social dos camponeses assentados no município de Poço Redondo. Assim como a maneira como se define o território e se relacionam com os outros setores da sociedade, desenvolvendo-se através da comercialização que, concretamente, dividimos em vendas diretas, vendas indiretas e com os mercados institucionais, através das políticas públicas do estado. Para isso duas etapas metodológicas com amplitude diferentes foram utilizadas: a primeira, um olhar mais geral através das metodologias participativas em reuniões, dinâmicas grupais e diagnósticos participativos; a segunda através de trinta entrevistas selecionadas e induzidas.
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Změny programového schématu kanálu ČT 2 po novele zákona o České televizi z roku 2011 / Changes to the program schedule of the channel ČT 2 after the amendement to the Czech Television Act of 2011Petruška, Daniel January 2021 (has links)
The diploma thesis on the topic Changes in the programming scheme of the ČT 2 channel after the amendment to the Czech Television Act of 2011 examines whether this television channel was commercialized after the law changed the rules for placing advertisements and advertising messages on public service television channels. The ČT 2 channel was conceived as an alternative channel intended for a more demanding audience. From the logic of its focus, such a channel does not aim at high viewership. Nevertheless, the amendment to the law designated it for the sale of advertising time as the only full-format channel of Czech Television. The search provided a wealth of information regarding television broadcasting by law and the effects it has on public service television. Czech Television was included in the media system as a public service television. The work deals with the technique and principles of creating a television program and its individual components, which undoubtedly have an impact on the resulting media product, which is the program scheme of the channel. Professional publications of Czech and world media experts enabled the author to create his own definition of terms, the description of which clearly does not agree with the professional public. It is mainly about defining a program that...
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Föreningskultur, Kommersialiseringen & 51-procentsregeln / Leading organizations and elite football clubs' perspectives on Swedish football's club culture and club structureArkelius, Linus, Petersson, Sebastian January 2021 (has links)
Svensk fotboll har en starkt rotad föreningskultur som bygger på ideellt engagemang,amatörmässiga ideal och demokrati. Under lång tid har dock fotbollen i stort genomgått enkommersialiseringsprocess där elitfotbollen allt mer styrs som företag och ekonomi blir alltviktigare. Detta har skapat en debatt kring 51-procentsregeln som hindrar privata investerare från attköpa upp svenska klubbar. Supportrarna värnar om denna regeln och under tidigt 10-tal var fråganom en avreglering uppe i Riksidrottsförbundets stämma men supportrarna protesterande och regelnblev kvar.Supportrarnas åsikt i frågan framkommer därmed tydligt vilket leder oss in på vårt syfte. Vi vill tareda på hur ledande organisationer inom svensk fotboll och svenska elitfotbollsklubbar ser på densvenska föreningskulturen och den svenska föreningsstrukturen, samt vad de anser att de finns förkonsekvenser med att ha kvar respektive häva 51-procentsregeln. För att genomföra studien har detgjorts totalt sju stycken intervjuer, med fem klubbchefer i svenska elitfotbollsklubbar och envardera med representanter från Riksidrottsförbundet och Svensk Elitfotboll.Studien har gett oss tydliga svar på vad dessa respondenter har för åsikter kring den svenskaföreningskulturen och 51-procentsregeln men även kring den svenska fotbollsstrukturen. Detframkommer i studien kritik till den svenska strukturen och även hanteringen av pandemin ochflertalet respondenter kräver förändringar. Studien hoppas kunna bidra med att vara ett underlag försådana eventuella förändringar samt hoppas vi, kunna öka förståelsen för olika aktörers perspektiv ihögst aktuella frågor. / Swedish football has a strongly rooted club culture based on non-profit involvement, amateurishideals and democracy. During a long time, however, football has largely undergone acommercialization process in which elite football is increasingly controlled as a company and theeconomy is becoming increasingly important. This has created a debate about the 50+1 rule thatprevents private investors from buying Swedish clubs. The supporters care about this rule andduring the early 10s the question of a deregulation was up in the Swedish Sports Confederationsmeeting but the supporters protested and the rule remained.The supporters' opinion on the issue is thus clear, which leads us into our purpose. We want to findout how leading organizations in Swedish football and Swedish elite football clubs view theSwedish club culture and club structure, as well as what consequences they believe exist ofretaining and removing the 50+1 rule, respectively. To conduct the study, a total of seven interviewswere conducted, with five club managers in Swedish elite football clubs and one each withrepresentatives from the Swedish Sports Confederation and Swedish Elite football.The study has given us clear answers to what opinions these respondents have about the Swedishclub culture and the 50+1 rule, but also about the Swedish football structure. The study revealscriticism of the Swedish structure and also how the pandemic has been handled and mostrespondents demands changes in the structure. The study hopes to be able to contribute as a basisfor such possible changes and we hope, to be able to increase the understanding of different actors'perspectives on highly current issues.
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Market participation of smallholder sunflower farmers in North-West province, South AfricaAbafe, Ejovi Akpojevwe January 2021 (has links)
In South Africa and other parts of sub-Saharan Africa, market participation of smallholder farmers are rapidly being advocated as a means to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Agenda’s (SDGs): zero hunger and no poverty. Yet little is known about market participation in the sunflower industry. The study therefore, examine market participation of smallholder sunflower farmers in Ngaka Modiri Molema District Municipality, North West Province, South Africa. A quantitative research approach was developed to address the research objectives, and a proportional stratified random sampling technique was used to select 177 sunflower producing households. Respondents information were captured using semi-structured questionnaires, data were then entered and coded using statistical software computer programs (MS Excel, SPSS, and Stata). Socio-economic characteristics, level of market participation, and factors influencing households market participation within the district were analyzed using descriptive statistics, household commercialization index, and probit regression model. Overall, the result indicates that respondents exhibited high level of commercialization (90.1 % market participants). While, the result of the probit regression model shows that eight (8) of the regressors were statistically significant. Variables such as age (Coef = 0.103, p<0.01), gender (Coef = 1.267, p<0.05), market outlet (Coef = 1.351, p<0.01), access to information (Coef = 1.298, p<0.05), and quantity sold in tons (Coef = 0.015, p<0.010) were found to have positive and statistically significant influence, while household size (Coef = -0.409, p<0.01), market distance (Coef = 0.618, p<0.010) and land tenure system (Coef = -1.541, p<0.05) were found to have a negative but statistically significant impact on market participation among respondents. The pseudo R2 of the probit model is 0.5199, indicating that the model matches the dataset and the regressors accurately explains 51.99 % of the variation. The overall goodness of fit measures of the probit model was determined using postestimation test for predictive margin. With a high significant chi-square value of (p<0.0001), the result correctly predicted a 90 % likelihood of respondents to participate in the market. The findings suggests that rural-based initiatives and intervention programs be developed to boost households' access to finance, grants, and diversified markets for effective market competitiveness, while there is a greater need for proper awareness, supports, and partnerships focused on promoting women and youth participation in the sunflower sector across the district. / Agriculture and Animal Health / M. Sci. (Agriculture)
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Studie proveditelnosti, jako součást marketingového řízení stavebního projektu / Feasibility study, as part of the marketing management of construction projectLhota, Jiří January 2014 (has links)
This work is focused on marketing planning in feasibility study. The aim of this work is to describe the connection between marketing planning and feasibility study. Based on theoretical knowledge, the marketing plan will be included in feasibility study and applied on model of investment intention.
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The Evolution of Gentility in Eighteenth-Century England and Colonial VirginiaNitcholas, Mark C. 08 1900 (has links)
This study analyzes the impact of eighteenth-century commercialization on the evolution of the English and southern American landed classes with regard to three genteel leadership qualities--education, vocation, and personal characteristics. A simultaneous comparison provides a clearer view of how each adapted, or failed to adapt, to the social and economic change of the period. The analysis demonstrates that the English gentry did not lose a class struggle with the commercial ranks as much as they were overwhelmed by economic changes they could not understand. The southern landed class established an economy based on production of cash crops and thus adapted better to a commercial economy. The work addresses the development of class-consciousness in England and the origins of Virginia's landed class.
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[en] DYNAMIC DECISION MODEL TO FOSTER RENEWABLE SOURCES IN BRAZIL / [pt] MODELO DECISÓRIO DINÂMICO PARA INCENTIVAR AS FONTES RENOVÁVEIS NO BRASILADERSON CAMPOS PASSOS 01 April 2016 (has links)
[pt] Este trabalho apresenta um framework de investimento dinâmico para
carteiras de energia, baseados em opções reais, que visa maximizar o valor,
corrigido pelo risco, do investimento conjunto em projetos de geração de
energia com fontes renováveis. Diferente de outros modelos semelhantes,
várias classes de incerteza são levadas em consideração simultaneamente e
os valores de projeto são calculados por um modelo de otimização híbrido robusto
e estocástico. O framework de investimento é adequado para qualquer
mercado que permita a negociação bilateral, conforme feita no Ambiente de
Contratação Livre, e é construído na visão da empresa de geração, ou comercializadora
de energia, que pretende investir em uma carteira de geração.
Utilizando este framework é possível definir o quanto investir em cada fonte
renovável, quanto vender da carteira de energia e o melhor momento para
investir. Além disso, com essa modelagem é calculado o prêmio do investimento
simultâneo em fontes renováveis complementares. Ele estende os
modelos de decisão estáticos, já abordados na literatura, para um contexto
dinâmico, ou seja, considerando a decisão ótima de investimento no tempo.
Isso é feito utilizando a abordagem numérica desenvolvida por Bastian-Pinto
[9], para descrever cenários de variáveis estocásticas que se comportam como
um processo de reversão à média (típico dos preços de energia). Ao final são
mostrados estudos de caso realistas que demonstram o valor do framework.
Este modelo aprimora as decisões da indústria de energia, contribui para
aumentar a competitividade das fontes renováveis e reduz a necessidade de
subsídios para o investimento. Com isso, impulsiona a penetração das fontes
renováveis no mercado brasileiro de energia elétrica. / [en] This dissertation presents a dynamic framework for renewable energy portfolios,
based on real options, that maximize the risk-averse investment value.
Differently from similar models, several classes of uncertainty are taken into
account simultaneously and the project values are calculated by means of
a hybrid robust and stochastic optimization model. The investment framework
is suitable for any market that allows bilateral trading (as in the
Brazilian free contracting environment) and is designed for a generation
company or energy trading company, that intends to invest in a renewablesource
portfolio. Using this framework it is possible to define how much to
buy or build from each renewable source, how much to sell from the energy
portfolio, and the best moment to invest. Additionally, the premium for investing
simultaneously in several complementary renewable sources is also
determined. The section responsible for supporting the dynamic investment
timing decision uses the binomial lattice proposed by Bastian-Pinto et al
[9], to describe mean reverting processes. This framework improves industry
practices, contributes to increase renewables competitiveness and proposes
an arragement that reduces the need for subsidies. As a consequence, this
model contributes to foster the penetration of renewable sources in Brazilian
electricity market.
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