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Выпускная квалификационная работа (магистерская диссертация) посвящена исследованию кредитных рисков в коммерческом банке. Предметом исследования является деятельность коммерческих банков в условиях кредитных рисков в Российской Федерации и проблемы их развития. Основной целью магистерской диссертации является углубленный анализ кредитных рисков в коммерческом банке, а также исследование современных проблем развития данного финансового института и путей их решения. В заключении изложены основные выводы, полученные в работе, и проведено соотнесение достигнутых результатов с целями и задачами работы, поставленными во введении. / Graduation work (master's thesis) is devoted to the study of credit risks in a commercial bank. The subject of the study is the activities of commercial banks in the context of credit risks in the Russian Federation and the problems of their development. The main goal of the master's thesis is an in-depth analysis of credit risks in a commercial bank, as well as a study of modern development problems of this financial institution and ways to solve them.In the conclusion, the main conclusions obtained in the work are presented, and the results achieved are compared with the goals and objectives of the work set out in the introduction.

資本適足率（capital adequacy ratio，即實業界所稱之BIS比率）為金融界評估商銀風險之重要指標，在反映資本結構以至於倒閉風險的意義上，相較於財務分析常用的權益值對總資產比率，BIS比率應是一個更精確的指標。本研究先藉資本市場銀行股長天期窗口超額報酬率反映投資人所要求報酬中之風險貼水，探討投資人是否可以引用資本適足率衡量國內商銀的倒閉風險與流動性風險。此外，本研究亦針對壞帳費用與票券買賣損益兩項富裁量空間之科目，分析國內商業銀行策略性操縱帳面盈餘與資本問題。最後，就現行我國資本適足率規定之缺失，作進一步之檢討，並檢測調整部份風險性資產之風險權數後，對資本適足率解釋投資人所要求必要報酬間關係之影響。 實證結果發現，不論是商銀呈報金融主管機關之資本適足率，或是就銀行所發布資料，儘可能比照公訂資本適足率核算辦法所自行設算、不含資產負債表外風險性資產所計算之比值，甚至自行設算、僅考慮自有資本中之第一類資本（Tier 1 Capital）估算值，均與商銀股市超額報酬有顯著之負血關係，顯示資本適足率對投資人而言，屬攸關資訊，能幫助評估銀行倒閉風險，進而決定其所要求之必要報酬率。又國內商銀中，民營銀行股超額報酬對資本適足率之迴歸係數，較公營銀行更具負向關係，而民國八十一年後新成立之銀行對資本適足率之迴歸係數，亦較八十一年前成立之舊銀行更具負向關係，而景氣較蕭條時，資本適足率與報酬間之關係並未較繁榮期敏感。 在盈餘與資本調控部份，或因使用不同調控工具之成本差異，致使商業銀行在帳面資本不足時，傾向于增加提列壞帳費用；另一方面，銀行似乎為了損益平穩化之目的，而以多實現或少實現票券買賣損益作為調控當期盈餘之工具，此兩項潛在之盈餘調控工具，彼此間有著相互替代代，惟因實現票券買賣損益之成本因時而異，國內商業銀行引用此兩項工具相互替補的程度實隨資本市場榮枯而改變。在估算國內商銀壞帳費用不可裁量部份時，本研究發現以上期壞帳、本期逾催收款、應收匯兌承兌款及無擔保放款餘額估計壞帳，比過動國外文獻所採變數組更恰當。 / This thesis empirically examines the explanatory power of capital adequacy ratio (BIS ratio) to Taiwan's commercial bank long-windowed returns minus risk-free rates (hereafter excess return), investigating whether the ratio serves to measure the level of risk of these banks equity securities. Findings indicate the followings: (1) ceteris paribus, long-windowed bank returns negatively correlate with each and every measure of BIS ratio in this study. These results are consistent with the notion that capital adequacy ratio conveys relevant information regarding the bank shareholders risk; (2) required rate of security returns appears to be more (less) sensitive to the BIS ratio for banks founded after (prior to) 1992 and for non-state-owned (state-owned) commercial banks; (3) there is not corroborative evidence that macro-economic variables have incremental explanatory power to the regression coefficient for the BIS ratio. Further, by identifying and examining the potential discretionary components of Taiwan's commercial bank loan loss provisions (LLPs) and securities gains and losses (RSGs), this study aims at exploring these banks' accruals management practices. Robust against various sensitivity tests, empirical findings support the notion that commercial banks strategically increase their LLPs to avoid unfavorable capital adequacy ratios. On the other hand, this study finds these banks smooth reported earnings via RSGs. Moreover, our evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that LLPs and RSGs serve as substitutes for each other in commercial bank accruals management. However, the extent these banks exercise discretion via either measure varies with domestic capital market performance. For tests in this study, the specification of simultaneous equations outperforms the competing ordinary least square regression models. This study also provides an innovative design for estimating bank loan loss provisions. As compared with competing designs, our model, which relates commercial bank LLPs to non-performing assets, unsecured loans, accrued acceptances and prior-period loan loss provisions, produce a more efficient predictor for Taiwan's commercial bank LLPs.

The final qualifying work (master's thesis) is devoted to the study of consumer lending in the Russian Federation, its problems and development prospects. The subject of the research is economic relations arising in the process of organizing consumer lending. The main purpose of the master's thesis is to analyze consumer lending in the current economic situation in the Russian Federation, identifying the main problems and development prospects. In conclusion, the proposed main methods aimed at the efficiency of growth in consumer lending of the Bank and calculated the economic efficiency of the proposed measures. / Выпускная квалификационная работа (магистерская диссертация) посвящена исследованию потребительского кредитования в Российской Федерации, его проблемам и перспективам развития. Предметом исследования выступают экономические отношения, возникающие в процессе организации потребительского кредитования. Основной целью магистерской диссертации является анализ потребительского кредитования в условиях современной экономической ситуации в Российской Федерации, выявление основных проблем и перспектив развития. В заключении предложены основные методы, направленные на эффективность роста потребительского кредитования Банка и рассчитана экономическая эффективность предложенных мер.

Föränderlig, ofullständig eller osäkerhet kring informationen från företagslåntagare kan skapa betydande utmaningar med kreditrisker för bankerna. På grund av detta ser banker de små och medelstora företagen (SMF) som högre risk. Tidigare forskning tyder på att följder av informationsasymmetri är att banker försvårar företagens tillgång till finansiering. Utifrån detta är syftet med denna studie att beskriva och analysera hur de svenska storbankerna hanterar kreditriskerna vid utlåning till SMF, samt vilka likheter och skillnader det finns mellan bankerna. Med användningen av en kvalitativ datainsamlingsmetod genomfördes semistrukturerade intervjuer med relevanta bankanställda på SEB, Handelsbanken och Swedbank från vilket en tydlig empiri kunde sammanställas. Detta analyserades sedan utifrån teorin om negativt urval och minskad kapitalkostnad samt signaleringsteorin.  Studien fann att de svenska storbankernas strategier för kreditriskhanteringen vid utlåning till SMF utgår från liknande delar. Detta för att både kunna identifiera, förebygga och åtgärda eller minska påverkan från kreditrisker. Skillnaderna mellan bankernas strategier i kreditriskhantering ses i hur de genomför vissa processer och vad de främst fokuserar på vid utlåningen till SMF. Dessa skillnader ses inom vilka externa källor storbankerna använder för informationsinsamling, vilka som har ansvaret för beslutet om kreditvärdighet och om banken använder standardiserade lånevillkor eller inte. / Changing, incomplete or uncertain information from corporate borrowers can create significant credit risk challenges for banks. Because of this, banks see the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as higher risk. Previous research suggests that consequences of information asymmetry are that banks make it more difficult for companies to access financing. Based on this, the purpose of this study is to describe and analyze how the major Swedish banks manage credit risks when lending to SMEs, as well as what similarities and differences exist between the banks. Using a qualitative data collection method, semi-structured interviews were conducted with relevant bank employees at SEB, Handelsbanken and Swedbank from which a clear empirical record could be compiled. This was analyzed based on the theory of adverse selection and reduced cost of capital, as well as the signalling theory.  The study found that the major Swedish banks strategies for credit risk management when lending to SMEs are based on similar elements. This is to be able to both identify, prevent and remedy or reduce the impact from credit risks. The differences between the banks strategies in credit risk management are seen in how they carry out certain processes and what they mainly focus on when lending to SMEs. These differences are seen in which external sources the big banks are using for information gathering, who is responsible for the decision on creditworthiness and whether the bank uses standardized loan terms or not.

為了符合國際清算銀行在 2006 年通過的新巴賽爾資本協定，且有鑑於近年 來整體經濟環境欠佳，銀行業者面對外部的規定以及內部的需求，積極地尋求 信用風險模型的建置方法，希望將整個融資的評等過程系統化以提高對信用風 險的控管。 本研究希望利用 92 至94 年未上市上櫃中小企業之營造業的資料，依循新 巴賽爾資本協定之規定並配合資料採礦的技術，擬出一套信用風險模型建置與 評估的標準流程，其中包含企業違約機率模型以及信用評等系統的建置，前者 能預測出授信戶的違約情形以及違約機率；後者則是能利用前者的分析結果將 授信戶分成數個不同的等級，藉此區別授信戶是否屬於具有高度風險的違約授 信戶，期待能提供銀行業者作為因應新巴賽爾協定中內部評等法的建置，以及 中小企業的融資業務上內部風險管理的需求一個參考的依據。 研究結果共選出 5 個變數作為企業違約機率模型建立之依據，訓練資料以 及原始資料的AUC 分別為0.799 以及0.773，表示模型能有效的預測違約機率 並判別出違約授信戶以及非違約授信戶。接著，經過回顧測試與係數拔靴測試， 證實本研究的模型具有一定的穩定性。另外，透過信用評等系統將所有授信戶 分為8 個評等等級，並藉由等級同質性檢定以及敏感度分析的測試，可以驗證 出本研究之評等系統具有將不同違約程度的授信戶正確歸類之能力。最後，經 由轉移矩陣可以發現，整體而言，營造業在2003 年到2005 年間的表現有逐漸 好轉的趨勢，與營造業實際發展情形相互比較之下，也確實得到相互吻合的結 論。 / In order to conform to the New Basel Capital Accord passing in 2006 by the Bank for International Settlements and due to the slump faced by economies globally and the rise in the number of defaulters in the recent years, the banking industry has aggressively looked for ways to establish the reliable credit risk model that can accommodate required regulations set forth by the Accord as well as the internal banking procedure demands. The banking industry attempts to standardize the process of evaluating credit rating in regards to capital risk in the loan business to enhance the control of credit risks. The attempt of this research is to perform the process of the establishment and evaluation of the credit risk model which includes the default risk model of companies and the credit rating system within the framework of the New Basel Capital Accord using the statistical tool known as data mining. The data adopted in this study is taken from the construction industry of the SMEs from 2003 to 2005. The default risk model assesses the probability whether a company is at risk of being defaulted. In addition the credit rating system assigns credit scores to a company in question based on the application result from the default risk model to differentiate those who have high risk of being defaulted. More importantly this research provides banking industry of varying degrees of complexity to monitor its risk assessment as well as becoming a reference basis of the loan business in the SMEs. Based on the result of this study, five variables are selected as the default probability model basis. The AUC for the training data is 0.799 and for the raw data is 0.773 which represents the accuracy and reliability of the model in predicting the probability of default risk and determining the likelihood of the companies to default. After series of testing, our model stability plays a key role in determining whether the algorithm produces an optimal model in this study. The credit rating system formulates credit scores of the companies into 8 credit ratings. Applying homogeneity test and sensitive analysis, this study is able to verify the validity and accuracy of the rating system to correctly classify different levels of credit risk that could have jeopardized the companies to default. Finally, through the transformation matrix, there has been an improvement trend of performance in the construction industry from 2003 to 2005 which coincides with the result of this study.

近年來，信用卡市場快速地成長，發卡銀行亦大量地發卡，然而目前國內 發卡銀行在整個信用卡信用風險管理上，大都採行人類專家經驗判斷的方 式進行。發卡銀行隨著持卡人數快速地增加，其信用資料亦呈等比例急速 上升，若仍採用人工處理方式，除了會大幅增加工作負荷外，其授信品質 也不易控制。因此，本研究擬引進資訊技術來解決大量信用卡信用資料之 信用管理問題。 首先，我們探討信用卡信用管理業務，並根據其作業 流程來建構一信用卡信用管理自動化的架構，此架構包括徵信驗證系統、 審核系統、預警系統、高風險客戶管理系統、及催收系統等五個系統，其 目的在於輔助授信管理之業務、減少授管人員的工作負荷、以有效控制授 信品質、及降低授信的風險。 其次，本研究針對上述信用卡信用管理 自動化中的預警系統，利用範例學習法來建立信用卡信用風險預警範例學 習系統，且實際以一家發卡銀行的信用資料來建立並驗證四個預警模式， 期能事先讓系統自動查核信用不良之客戶。此四類預警模式為: (一)提前 預警模式(二)群體決策預警模式(三)追蹤管理預警模式(四)例外管理預警 模式 最後，我們亦提出一些未來研究之課題，期能進一步發展本研究 之信用卡信用管理自動化系統及預警模式，以推廣應用至各發卡機構。

Background: Managing credit risks is an integral part of the banking sector and is crucial for banks’ success. Effective risk management ensures stable and profitable operations, addressing challenges like information asymmetry between lenders and borrowers. To combat these challenges, banks are shifting from manual methods to automated processes in credit assessment and credit risk management.Purpose: The purpose of the study was to investigate how the use of AI has contributed to credit risk management and the handling of risk assessments within Swedish banks. Additionally, the study explored the factors driving the use of AI in this area.  Methodology: An abductive research approach was employed within the framework of a qualitative research method. Four banks were included in the study: two major banks and two niche banks. Semi structured interviews provided the primary data for the study, while secondary data, such as articles and literature, were used to support and explain the findings during the analysis and discussion.  Theory: The study was based on two models and the theory of information asymmetry. The first model focuses on the credit assessment process, while the second addresses critical success factors for the implementation of AI. The theory of information asymmetry consists of moral hazard and adverse selection. Conclusions: The study’s conclusion indicated that AI has contributed to increased efficiency and precision in credit risk management. Furthermore, AI supports addressing information asymmetry by automating data collection, analysis, and fraud detection. The study concludes that effective AI usage necessitates a balanced combination of management support, strategic vision, organizational culture, and structure.

Магистерская диссертация посвящена исследованию оценки кредитоспособности заемщика с учетом нейрокогнитивных факторов. В современных финансовых институтах традиционные методы оценки кредитоспособности основываются преимущественно на анализе финансовых показателей и кредитной истории заемщика. Однако, развитие нейроэкономики и когнитивных наук открывает новые возможности для улучшения этих методик. Автором предложена методика оценки кредитоспособности, включающая нейрокогнитивные параметры. В качестве базы данных для проведения исследования использовались как традиционные финансовые показатели заемщиков, так и результаты нейрокогнитивных тестов. / The dissertаtion is devoted to the study of borrower's creditworthiness assessment taking into account neurocognitive factors. In modern financial institutions traditional methods of creditworthiness assessment are based mainly on the analysis of financial indicators and borrower's credit history. However, the development of neuroeconomics and cognitive sciences opens new opportunities to improve these techniques. The methodological part of the diploma is devoted to the development and testing of a creditworthiness assessment model that includes neurocognitive parameters. Both traditional financial indicators of borrowers and the results of neurocognitive tests are used as a database for the study.