Nesta dissertação estudou-se o modelo GARMA para modelar séries temporais de dados de contagem com as distribuições condicionais de Poisson, binomial e binomial negativa. A principal finalidade foi analisar no contexto clássico e bayesiano, o desempenho e a qualidade do ajuste dos modelos de interesse, bem como o desempenho dos percentis de cobertura dos intervalos de confiança dos parâmetros para os modelos adotados. Para atingir tal finalidade considerou-se a análise dos estimadores pontuais bayesianos e foram analisados intervalos de credibilidade. Neste estudo é proposta uma distribuição a priori conjugada para os parâmetros dos modelos e busca-se a distribuição a posteriori, a qual associada a certas funções de perda permite encontrar estimativas bayesianas para os parâmetros. Na abordagem clássica foram calculados estimadores de máxima verossimilhança, usandose o método de score de Fisher e verificou-se por meio de simulação a consistência dos mesmos. Com os estudos desenvolvidos pode-se observar que, tanto a inferência clássica quanto a inferência bayesiana para os parâmetros dos modelos em questão, apresentou boas propriedades analisadas por meio das propriedades dos estimadores pontuais. A última etapa do trabalho consiste na análise de um conjunto de dados reais, sendo uma série real correspondente ao número de internações por causa da dengue em Campina Grande. Estes resultados mostram que tanto o estudo clássico, quanto o bayesiano, são capazes de descrever bem o comportamento da série / In this work, it was studied the GARMA model to model time series count data with Poisson, binomial and negative binomial discrete conditional distributions. The main goal is to analyze, in the bayesian and classic context, the performance and the quality of fit of the corresponding models, as well as the coverage percentages performance to these models. To achieve this purpose we considered the analysis of Bayesian estimators and credible intervals were analyzed. To the Bayesian study it was proposed a priori distribution joined to the models parameters and sought a posteriori distribution, which one associate with to certain loss functions allows finding out Bayesian estimates to the parameters. In the classical approach, it was calculated the maximum likelihood estimators using the method of Fisher scoring, whose interest was to verify, by simulation, the consistence. With the studies developed we can notice that, both classical and inference Bayesian inference for the parameters of those models, presented good properties analysed through the properties of the punctual estimators. The last stage of the work consisted of the analysis of one real data set, being a real serie corresponding to the admission number because of dengue in the city of Campina Grande. These results show that both the classic and the Bayesian studies are able to describe well the behavior of the serie

The subject of this thesis is evaluation of company performance and based on acquired information formulation of suggestions for improvement. The theoretical part describes classic and modern indicators for measurment of company performance. In the practical parts there are an analysis of company performance and the results are compare with competitive and average in industry. Last part of this thesis is dedicated to suggestions for an improvment.

The manufacture, laminate design, and modeling of a part with complex geometry are explored. The ultimate goal of the research is to produce a model that accurately predicts part stiffness. This is validated with experimental results of composite parts, which refine material properties for use in a final prototype part model. The secondary goal of this project is to explore manufacturing methods for improved manufacturability of the complex part. The manufacturing portion of the thesis and feedback into material model has incorporated a senior project team to perform research on manufacturing and create composite part to be used for experimental testing. The senior project was designed, led, and managed by the author with support from the committee chair. Finite element modeling was refined using data from coupon 3-point bend testing to improve estimates on material properties. These properties were fed into a prototype part model which predicted deflection of composite parts with different layups and materials. The results of the model were compared to experimental results from prototype part testing and 3rd party analysis. The results showed that an accurate mid-plane shell element model could be used to accurately predict deflection for 2 of 3 experimental parts. There are recommendations in the thesis to further validate the models and experimental testing.

This master’s thesis tries to show the differences between usual obsolete indoor wiring and clas-sic indoor wiring used these days and also between this „classic“ indoor wiring and „intelligent wiring“. There is insisted on selection and optimalization of the adequate system for a concrete building and there is made a question of specifications of the user or the customer, his preferen-ces (financial, space, family etc.), disadvantages and advantages of the current system. Whereas it’s impossible to satisfy all the users in these problems by reason of diversity of the buildings (it can be a lot of variants of family houses or small apartments), the systems in this thesis are ap-plied only on the most frequent types of houses. Quite lot of firms deal in this country with indo-or wiring, the most known are ABB, ELKO EP and Moeller. Each of these firms offers different alternatives of systems. From the simplest, basic alternative, to most sophisticated „intelligent“ systems, which can care about almost everything, what is common with electrical energy. These different systems, their review, advantages and disadvantages are also presented in this work. Preliminary there is analysed the whole issue from the historical view and there is briefly explai-ned, what the system wiring is. In the next chapter there is a complex description of the actual state of known firms and systems on the present-day market in our country and in the world. The-re is also summarised the basic structure and the overall comparison of the most frequently used bus systems. In the next two chapters there are presented the main objectives of this work and the methods and procedures, how to achieve these objectives. The central part of this work is the next to last chapter, in which there are presented the different model variants of the project, applied to the real residential building - middle-sized family house. That is realized on the basis of the spe-cified requirements on the designed system. Before that there was performed the complex design of the situation scheme of all usual electrical appliances and lighting system in the house. In the end the whole work is in summary analysed, mainly in term of costs of each variant of the pro-ject. By virtue of this can the reader make a better view about the whole financial problem of the system wiring, that means, how much he has to invest in his concrete wiring. In the end of the work there is attached the detailed documentation to all alternatives of the project, such as dra-wings (complex horizontal plans) and costs budget of all used items and the wiring material.

Thesis is concerned with a comparison of the classic branches of Volksbank and of the new sales points located in shopping centres - so called Volksbank Shops. The thesis compares the sales points, their employees and offered products. The productivity of the sales points is compared using the number of clients, accounts, and loans. In this way the creditworthiness of clients is compared. The conclusion of the thesis contains improvements suggestions for the bank and for its clients.

This research aims to contribute to the knowledge gap about opposition and support parties’ competitive behaviour in minority situations where no party have a majority in the parliament. Two Swedish parties - the Centre Party and the Left Party - will be examined to answer the two overarching research questions. Namely, 1) how does the competitive behaviour of parties vary in relation to a party’s role as a support party or opposition party? And 2) does the result support the cartel party thesis or the model of classic opposition? The competitive behaviour was measured in regards to counter proposals, standpoints and reservations on the governmental propositions. This was done through a quantitative content analysis of committee reports during four terms of office. The results indicate that both parties were more competitive during their time in opposition compared to in support status. This supports the model of classic opposition and rejects the cartel party thesis.

IN ENGLISH This thesis has the character of theoretical studies on the topic paraphrase a classic work of art and its subsequent didactic applications for that grade school. It solves the problems of paraphrasing in the visual arts. It characterizes the aspects related to the topic, such as analysis and structure of a work of art. It focuses on the theory of shape as the basic building blocks of artwork and associated topics, which are: quotes, interpretation, image transformations and alterations. Art work is a continuation of a previous bachelor thesis, which dealt with the issue of land. It deals with the transformation of the original image resulting from the help of manipulation of individual shapes in the image, replacing the existing design to a new one. They are created in the form of the photographs from the area of pre-defined landscape Didactic section applies subject paraphrase the selected school and verifies and theoretical knowledge in practice. It depicts the topic paraphrase as a whole. The objective is to try and understand the basic principles that apply to paraphrase.

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L’industrie osseuse dans la région maya demeure peu comprise à cause de la mauvaise préservation des os. Les fouilles de la structure J-2 et de la place adjacente au site d’Ucanal, situé dans la province de Petén au Guatemala, ont permis de mettre au jour un dépôt daté Classique récent (700-810 DNÈ) contenant des déchets de production osseux. La concentration de déchets produits à Ucanal est l’une des plus élevées de l’aire maya, précédée seulement du dépôt L4-3 à Dos Pilas au Guatemala. Les débris regroupent une quantité importante de restes humains (~20%) mélangés aux restes d’animaux. Le travail des os humains dans la région maya est peu documenté et est principalement connue à travers les représentations artistiques ainsi que par les objets finis découverts dans les tombes de l’élite. Ce mémoire examine les restes humains retrouvés dans le dépôt de déchets de production d’Ucanal. Dans un premier temps, l’analyse des processus de réduction, utilisant le principe de chaîne opératoire, a documenté peu de différences entre le traitement des os humains et des os de mammifères non humains. Dans un second temps, l’organisation de la production semble indiquer que l’élite prenait part au travail de l’os puisque l’ensemble des stades de production ont été retrouvés au sein de leur résidence. Finalement, les isotopes de strontium et d’oxygène montrent que les individus, dont les os ont possiblement été transformés en outils, présentaient des valeurs locales impliquant qu’ils n’aient pas été originaires d’une région suffisamment éloignée du site contrairement à ce qui pourrait être attendu de captifs ou d’étrangers. / The ancient bone industry in the Maya region is currently not well understood due to the poor preservation of bones in the area. The excavations conducted of Structure J-2 and the plaza nearby at the site of Ucanal in Petén, Guatemala unearthed a large deposit dated to the Late Classic period (700-810 AD) containing primarily bone production debris. The number of bone fragments from the production debris deposit at Ucanal is among the highest recorded in the Maya area, second only to the L4-3 deposit found at Dos Pilas, Guatemala. The bone debris included a large quantity of worked human bones (ca. 20%) that were mixed with animal bones. The crafting of bone objects from human remains in the Maya area is poorly documented and primarily identified through artistic representations and finished objects found in elite tombs. This thesis specifically examined the human remains found in the bone production deposit from Ucanal. Firstly, analysis of the production process, using the principle of la chaîne opératoire, documented only small differences between the treatment of human bone and non-human mammal bone. Secondly, analyses of the organization of production indicated that bone working occurred within an elite residence where all stages of production were undertaken in the same context. Finally, strontium and oxygen isotope analyses of human teeth from the deposit revealed that the individuals whose bones may have been worked into tools possessed isotopic values local to the region, suggesting that they were not born at significant distances from the site as one might expect for war captives or foreigners.

The neo-classic movement in Italy, which gained momentum in the early 1920's, was rooted in an instrumental style patterned after that of the Baroque era. The term "new classicism," proposed by Ferruccio Busoni in 1920, represented a reaction against the extreme chromaticism and large performance forces of the late nineteenth century. The pianistcomposer Alfredo Casella, after earlier periods in which he was influenced by such diverse composers as Mahler, Debussy, and Schoenberg, soon became the chief spokesman for the neoclassic movement in Italy. Casella considered the Sinfonia, Arioso and Toccata his most important work for the piano, because of its size and musical content. It is notable for its usage of thematic transformation, much of which is based on the interval of a fourth or fifth. This study includes a formal outline of each movement, showing sectional divisions and tonal regions, as well as illustrations of thematic transformation and intervallic patterns. Also discussed are the work's neoclassic style characteristics, including counterpoint, pandiatonicism, modality, and linear cadential treatment.