This thesis was inspired by the question of how the state addresses irregular challenges for its survival and reputation. It used an example of the confrontation between illegal armed groups (IAGs) operating in the North Caucasus and the Russian state in 2007-2014. Investigation started by asking to what extent do repressive and reconciliatory counter tactics decrease the level of violence produced by illegal armed groups? The thesis was situated in-between of deterrence and backlash theories to examine (in)effectiveness of repressive and reconciliatory policies. It accounted for (in)effectiveness by investigating whether the policy decreases or increases the level of insurgency-related violence; namely, whether it causes deterrence or backlash, in the case of repression or, alternatively, whether it causes conformity or backlash in the case of reconciliation. The thesis operationalised its main variables by disaggregating the strategy into separate repressive and reconciliatory tactics. It considered, on the one hand, three types of IAGs tactics: armed assault, bombings (suicide bombing, vehicle bomb, bomb placement, bomb tossing, firing, fake bomb) and hostage taking. One the other hand, the state tactics were divided into four categories: repressive indiscriminate (regime of counterterrorist operation, clash, and shelling), repressive discriminate (special operation, shooting, arrest, seizure, and detection), reconciliatory indiscriminate (involvement of civil society through dialogue, and socio-economic development), and reconciliatory discriminate (amnesty and reintegration). The thesis expected targeted repressive operations to suppress active IAGs members, whereas socio-economic incentives to contribute to maintaining the success of violent repressive operations. To test these hypotheses, the thesis relied on large empirical data, specially collected from the open sources, including 3270 episodes of IAG-initiated violence and 6114 governmental repressive actions. Data for reconciliatory efforts was taken from official statistics. The thesis used a generalized linear negative binomial and a generalized additive negative binomial model to assess the relationship between governmental policies and the level of violence. The thesis found that discriminate violence does indeed decrease attacks. However, it causes an immediate strong backlash effect at first, and only with considerable time and magnitude of repression eventually leads to the reduction of violence. The more discriminate repression is applied the less backlash it causes. Unlike repression, reconciliatory tactics produce a decrease in attacks. Thus, the thesis found partial support for both deterrence and backlash models. It, however, showed that deterrence effect overcomes initial backlash reaction.

En 2015, deux lois relatives au renseignement entrent en vigueur simultanément au Canada et en France. Ces deux lois soulignent respectivement les failles des cadres juridiques canadien et français quant à la collecte et à l’analyse des renseignements. Malgré les différences indéniables existant entre les deux pays tant dans la forme d’organisation que dans les pratiques institutionnelles, les manquements relevés sont relativement similaires et soulignent un affaiblissement des principes de l’État de droit au nom de la sécurité et plus particulièrement de la lutte antiterroriste. Les services de renseignement, disposant de pouvoirs plus importants, sont aujourd’hui amenés à contourner les mécanismes en vigueur sur le plan national destinés à protéger les droits fondamentaux des citoyens. Plus encore, dès lors qu’il s’agit d’un partage du renseignement au-delà des frontières, cette liberté, associée à l’absence de réglementation internationale dans ce domaine, conduit les actions des services de renseignement à de graves violations des droits humains. Le présent mémoire a pour but d’étudier l’équilibre entre sécurité et droits humains dans le cadre de la lutte antiterroriste. Plus précisément, il s'agira de relever les défis existants dans les valeurs de l'État de droit, et ce, eu égard à la collecte et au partage des renseignements. / In 2015, two laws related to intelligence were simultaneously adopted in Canada and France. Both of these laws highlight major faults in Canadian and French legal frameworks regarding the collection and sharing of intelligence. Despite undeniable differences between both countries with regards to organizational frameworks and institutional practices, their legal breaches are relatively similar and emphasise a weakening of the rule of law’s principles in the name of the security and counterterrorism. Intelligence services have greater powers than ever before and are more inclined to bypass national mechanisms designed to protect citizens’ fundamental rights. Moreover, when it comes to the sharing of information, these powers, combined with the lack of intelligence norms on an international scale, lead to numerous human rights violations. This dissertation focuses on the balance between security and human rights in light of counterterrorism. We will outline the existing challenges faced by the principles of the rule of law in relation to the collection and sharing of intelligence.

The thesis deals with transnational islamist terrorism and with the policy of the European Union (EU) and the United States (U.S.) in countering the threat. It is assumed that it is the EU's policy that is more relevant given the recent evolution of the threat. The assumption is subsequently tested throughout the paper. In the opening part, the focus is on the international, or transnational, islamist terrorism, in particular its root causes, ideological background and organizational forms. Second chapter is devoted to the EU's counterterrorism policy, first from the institutional point of view, as that has obvious implications for the formulation and implementation of policy. Then, the prevailing perceptions of terrorism, basic tenets of strategy and some concrete measures are analyzed. The chapter dealing with the U.S. policy is structured analogously, even if the institutional aspects are omitted due to the obvious absence of EU-specific problems. Chapter four provides a comparison of both actors' policies, followed up by the fifth, final, chapter, with some concluding remarks. Most importantly, the initial assumption is assessed as valid, i.e., the European Union counterterrorism policy is found to be more relevant than that of the United States.

This diploma thesis deals with the influence of changing nature of the terrorist threat on the foreign policy of the United States during the presidency of Barack Obama in the region of Middle East, together with the impact of changes in this foreign policy on the cooperation and relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia. The changing nature of the terrorist threat is analyzed primarily on the example of Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant and analyzed are also the circumstances of its rise, the events of the Arab Spring. The course of these events is shown in the cases of countries important for the current U.S. foreign policy in the region, therefore in the cases of Egypt, Syria, Saudi Arabia and Yemen and the U.S. foreign policy is analyzed in relation with its reaction on these events. Shown is the shift in this foreign policy, tied with the changes in the counterterrorism policy due to the changes in the nature of the terrorist threat. Resulting foreign policy is analyzed using the Foreign Policy Analysis and its models, which helps to explain the apparent rift in the Obama administration in relation to Middle East. The last chapter focuses primarily on the cooperation of the United States with Saudi Arabia and the Saudi relation with terrorism. Shown are Saudi counterterrorism...

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This study examines the motivation factors that make some individuals (terrorists) confidential informants. The study is based on the assumptions of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs and Herzberg’s motivation-hygiene theories. Accordingly, main assumption of the present study is that some individuals with unsatisfied needs in religion-abusing terrorist (RAT) networks choose to become confidential informants to satisfy their predominant needs. The main hypothesis for the purpose of this study is “The individuals’ decision-making processes to cooperate with law enforcement intelligence (LEI) as a confidential informant is affected by some motivation factors during recruitment process.” The present study tests 27 hypotheses in order to answer two main research questions. To meet its objectives the present study uses quantitative research methodology, constructs a cross-sectional research design, and employs secondary data analysis to test the hypotheses of the research questions. A dataset was formed based on official records of Turkish National Police by including all confidential informants within eight different RAT networks in Turkey. First, individual effect of each motivation factor on being a confidential informant is tested and discussed in detail. Then two group specific multivariate models for being an informant in Al-Qaeda and Turkish-Hezbollah are illustrated, compared and contrasted. Both bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses not only revealed the extent of individual effects of motivations among RAT groups, but also helped us to build fitting multivariate models that explain the probability of being informants in certain RAT networks. By doing so, the present study aims to make contributions to the literature and practice on this relatively unexplored phenomenon. Findings indicate that while some motivation factors are common among all RAT networks, the strength and direction of their effects vary among different RAT networks.

強制外交（coercive diplomacy）的概念在一九七０年代由學者Alexander L. George首度提出，主張強制外交應屬於防守型的危機管理（defensive crisis management），亦有別於一般所謂的嚇阻（deterrence）與壓制（compellence）等策略。施行強制外交時，相關決策者透過威脅使用武力，或使用有限度的武力，以勸說對手停止或放棄現正從事的行動，並防止危機情勢的升高，及避免戰爭的發生。冷戰期間，美、蘇兩國的領導人對於該一策略的運用極為廣泛與普遍，甘迺迪政府對於古巴飛彈危機的處理便是著名的案例。冷戰結束，國際關係進入所謂的後冷戰時期，面對區域衝突、人道危機和恐怖主義威脅等問題，強制外交更常被相關決策者和國際組織所施行、採用，亦多次在國際間重大的衝突與危機處理過程中扮演著關鍵的角色，並展現其重要性和多元化的一面。因此，鑑於強制外交對於後冷戰時期之國際危機處理和衝突解決的重要性和必要性，本研究旨在透過強制外交相關理論的介紹與整理，以及後冷戰時期強制外交相關個案的研究分析，總結歷史的經驗與教訓，深入探討其施行現況與成效，並提出具體之研究發現與政策建議。期盼所得之研究成果能使吾人對於該策略有更深一層的認識與了解。 關鍵詞：強制外交、壓制、危機管理、後冷戰時期、區域衝突、人道干涉、反恐行動 / In the 1970s, Alexander L. George first introduced and defined the concept of coercive diplomacy. According to George, he claims that coercive diplomacy is a strategy of defensive crisis management. Besides, coercive diplomacy is also different from the strategy of deterrence or compellence. When policymakers and political elites decide to manipulate coercive diplomacy, they should employ threats and / or limited force to persuade opponents to call off or undo adverse actions, which are thought aggressive. Furthermore, the purpose of using coercive diplomacy is to prevent crisis situation from escalating or causing wars. During the Cold War era, leaders of United States and Soviet Union used this strategy intensively. The Cuban missile crisis in 1962 can also be thought as a famous case of successful coercive diplomacy. When international relations enters into the post-Cold War era, coercive diplomacy still plays as important role in crisis management and conflict resolution. Policymakers of countries and international organizations, like the United Nations and the NATO, prefer to use coercive diplomacy to deal with regional conflicts, humanitarian intervention, and counterterrorism. Coercive diplomacy also demonstrates its necessity and significance of solving these problems. In order to give us a comprehensive understanding of coercive diplomacy, this thesis focuses on theories of coercive diplomacy and case studies, especially the experiences after the Cold War. Then, in final chapter of this thesis, the author generalizes lessons and experiences come from the cases analyzed and studied. In addition, the author also tries to make conclusions about the efficacy of coercive diplomacy and thus tries to offer some guidelines for policymakers. Keywords: coercive diplomacy, compellence, crisis management, post-Cold War era, regional conflicts, humanitarian intervention, counterterrorism

Thesis (Master of Military Studies)-Marine Corps Command and Staff College, 2008. / Title from title page of PDF document (viewed on: Feb 8, 2010). Includes bibliographical references.

This dissertation is an Investigation into the Tuareg involvement in violent conflict in the Sahara and the Sahel of North Africa from a sociological psychological perspective of unmet human needs. The research begins by establishing the structure and texture of the sociological, psychological, and emotional life patterns of their existence when not involved in violent conflict. This is followed by an examination of the pathology of Tuareg social structures that are engaged in intra and inter communal violence as perpetrators, victims, and bystanders. The first part of the research establishes normal conditions of the sociological life cycle and highlights natural areas of conflict that arise from exposure to rapid and/or external changes to their physical and social environment. The second part establishes parameters of expected damage from trauma, extended conflict, and failure to adapt to rapid environmental, social and political changes. The research methodology relies on a case study format that uses collaborative ethnography and phenomenological inquiry to answer the research questions and validate propositions made from existing literature and pre]existing research. The research questions focus on aspects of the sociological structure and failing psychological and emotional needs that are relevant to the subjectfs involvement in violent conflict. The research propositions are in part shaped from existing knowledge of tribal sociological structures that are related to the Tuareg by ethnicity, environment, and shared psycho]cultural attributes. The expected contribution of this research is the development of an alternative praxis for tribal engagement and village stability operations conducted by the United States Special Operations Command.

The paper deals with the use of unmanned aircraft of the American national security policy. It examines the history of unmanned aviation, its military use, and cost- efficiency. It then examines the main obstacles and problems with their use in national security that this technology meets and will meet in the future after a higher level of autonomy is developed. These problems involve legal issues, international and domestic American law, the issue of civilian casualties, the role of the media, and public opinion. The final chapter focuses on the problems of technical, strategic and operational issues. In this section the research paper comes to the first conclusion which claims that the introduction of more autonomous systems to war will radically change its structure and, consequently, standard procedures and strategies. Case studies are included to illustrate how successful the drone strategy is applied in the five countries where the United States leads a war on terror. The research using the theory of the revolution in military affairs concludes that these UAVs pose the greatest challenge in history and it goes well beyond military matters. UAVs in national security affect the understanding of the basic principles of war in relation to the concepts of warrior ethos and just war.