Uma característica dominante do sistema financeiro contemporâneo é a intrincada rede de conexões entre instituições financeiras, destacando-se a rede de empréstimos do mercado interbancário, através da qual é feita a transferência de recursos líquidos de bancos com superavit de liquidez para bancos deficitários. Ao mesmo tempo em que o mercado interbancário é responsável pela alocação eficiente de liquidez, a estrutura das exposições interbancárias pode ser considerada fator de risco sistêmico por ser fonte de contágio em caso de crise financeira. A insolvência de um banco pode se propagar na rede levando à insolvência de um grande subconjunto conectado de bancos. Estudos empíricos tem evidenciado que algumas redes interbancárias apresentam características de redes livres de escala. O presente trabalho explora as características de contágio financeiro em redes cuja distribuição de links se aproxima a uma lei de potência, através de um modelo deliberadamente simplificado que define a estrutura patrimonial dos bancos a partir de informações de conectividade da rede. Variando os parâmetros de formação das redes obtemos distribuições com diferentes concentrações de dívidas e de direitos, criando três perfis principais, que foram analisados quanto a sua resistência ao contágio. Testamos também o efeito da variação da conectividade em conjunto com a variação da concentração dos links. Os resultados encontrados sugerem que redes mais conectadas e com alta concentração de direitos (com nodos caracterizados por serem grandes credores do sistema) apresentam maior resistência ao contágio. Avaliando alguns índices topológicos de risco sistêmico sugeridos na literatura, pudemos verificar sua capacidade de explicar o impacto da quebra de um nodo sobre o sistema. Embora fique evidente a relação positiva entre os índices e o valor do impacto para os casos de maior magnitude de perdas, a relação é mais fraca para os menores valores de impacto, sugerindo um poder menor de previsão em redes mais resistentes. / One of the most striking characteristics of modern financial systems is its complex interdependence, standing out the network of bilateral exposures in interbank market, through which institutions with surplus liquidity can lend to those with liquidity shortage. While the interbank market is responsible for efficient liquidity allocation, it also introduce the possibility for systemic risk via financial contagion. Insolvency of one bank can propagate through interlinkages leading to insolvency of other banks. Empirical studies have shown that some interbank networks have features of scalefree networks. This work explores the characteristics of financial contagion in networks whose links distributions approaches a power law, using a deliberately simplified model that defines banks balance sheets from information of network connectivity. Varying the parameters of the network creation we obtained links distributions with different concentrations of debts and rights, creating three main network types, which were analyzed for their resilience to contagion. We also tested the effect of a variation in connectivity in conjunction with variation in concentration of links. The results suggest that more connected networks with high concentration of rights (featuring nodes that are large creditors of the system) present greater resilience to contagion. Evaluating some topological indices of systemic risk suggested in the literature, we could verify its ability to explain the impact on the system caused by the failure of a node. While it is clear the positive relationship between the indexes and the impact value for cases of greater magnitude of losses, the relationship is weaker for smaller values of impact, suggesting a lower predictive power in more resilient networks.

This dissertation examines the challenges of organizing in times of global displacement in three different studies. The papers are based on an ethnographic case study of an international aid organization and its operations in Rwanda. Each paper investigates a distinct aspect of responding to one of society's most pressing global problems, gradually unpacking how current organizational responses form a key part of the problem. The first paper explores the challenges of representing multi-sectoral contexts, as global crisis and grand challenges cut across multiple different sectors and domains. Drawing on pragmatist ideas, the paper conceptualizes multi-sectoral contexts by focusing on practical effects that differ in terms of visibility, comparability and timeliness. It further advances the idea of useful, rather than truthful, representation of complex contexts. The second paper examines the shift to participation and downward accountability in refugee crises. It outlines how downward accountability realizes its moral responsibility in an acute crisis, but betrays it over time as displacement prolongs. We conceptualize the dynamics of downward accountability as inclusive as well as exclusive, suggesting that participatory practices of downward accountability might reinforce refugees as marginalized others as displacement prolongs. The third paper follows this more critical stance by examining how the predominant solution to refugee crises, encampment, enacts and intensifies displacement over time. Contributing to the notion of wicked problems, this paper specifies the underlying practices of such problems' inherent intractability, referring to temporal and spatial containment. The paper however also sheds light on dynamics of temporal and spatial diffusion that assist in de-intensifying global wicked problems. The dissertation concludes with two overarching contributions that sketch opportunities for future research and reflects on the impact and implications of research on today's global social challenges.

Os recursos hídricos subterrâneos abastecem milhões de pessoas no mundo e constituem a principal reserva hídrica disponível para os seres humanos, contudo sua gestão é precária. A eminência de uma crise hídrica redirecionou os holofotes para os aquíferos transfronteiriços, o que demonstrou sua vulnerabilidade aos riscos e a necessidade de inseri-los nas políticas hídricas nacionais e internacionais. Gradualmente, o sistema internacional busca formas de incluir esses recursos e promover a sua governança e gestão. Esse foi o caso do Aquífero Guarani, alvo de diversos projetos de cooperação que convergiram no único acordo para a gestão conjunta de um aquífero transfronteiriço na América. O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar como o direito internacional e a ordem ambiental internacional trataram a temática das águas subterrâneas e dos aquíferos transfronteiriços e quais são as suas estratégias para combater os riscos que ameaçam esses recursos, com foco no caso do aquífero Guarani. A metodologia utilizada foi a análise qualitativa de documentos internacionais e da bibliografia, e a realização de entrevistas com especialistas sobre o tema. O direito internacional das águas doces, voltado quase que exclusivamente para os cursos de água internacionais, se desdobra para incluir os aquíferos, o que se reflete em várias tentativas da comunidade epistêmica jurídica e na edição da Resolução da Assembleia Geral das Nações Unidas nº 63/124 o direito internacional dos aquíferos transfronteiriços. Paralelamente, o sistema internacional, representado por um grupo específico de organizações internacionais busca traçar diretrizes objetivas e universais para esses recursos, tendo elegido a gestão integrada e a boa governança das águas como a melhor forma de protegê-los. Esses conceitos convidam a um aprofundamento da cooperação e a constituição de marcos jurídicos conjuntos, que podem contribuir para a elaboração de algum tipo de política de uso e proteção. Porém não questionam o cerne do problema que é a racionalidade econômica dominante. A cooperação internacional estabelecida entre Argentina, Brasil, Paraguai e Uruguai para o Aquífero Guarani e a assinatura de seu respectivo acordo são fruto desse contexto internacional que tem promovido à temática das águas subterrâneas. O modelo de cooperação adotado no Guarani vai replicar a ordem ambiental e o direito internacional das águas doces e expor seus avanços, limitações e contradições. / Groundwater resources supply millions of people worldwide and constitute the main water reserve available for mankind, but its management is precarious. The eminence of a water crisis redirected the spotlights to transboundary aquifers, which made evident their vulnerability to the risks and the need to insert them in the national and international water policies. Gradually, the international system seeks ways of including these resources and promoting their governance and management. This was the case of the Guarani Aquifer, the target of several cooperation projects that led to the only agreement for the joint management of a transboundary aquifer in America. The aim of this study is to analyze how international law and the environmental order treated the groundwaters and transboundary aquifers and what are their strategies to avoid the risks that threaten these resources, focused on the case of the Guarani Aquifer. The methodology used is the qualitative analysis of international documents and the bibliography on the theme. International water law, directed almost exclusively to surface water resources, makes efforts to include the aquifers, which is reflected in several attempts from the legal epistemic community and the edition of UN Resolution 63/124 the international law of transboundary aquifers. Parallel to this, the international system, represented by a specific group of international organizations, aims at drafting objective and universal guidelines for these resources, having elected the integrated water resources management and good water governance as the best way to protect them. These concepts are an invitation to dive deeper into the cooperation and constitution of joint legal landmarks, which can contribute, at least, to formatting some type of use and protection policy. Nevertheless, they do not question the core problem, which is the dominating economic rationale. The international cooperation established between Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay for the Guarani Aquifer and the signature of the respective agreement are the result of this international context that has promoted the groundwater theme. The cooperation model adopted for the Guarani will replicate the international environmental order and international water law and expose their advances, limitations and contradictions.

Cette thèse étudie les talk-shows, ces émissions sociopolitiques « dialogiques » qui ont marqué la scène médiatique et politique durant les dernières années du règne de Moubarak, jusqu’à la nouvelle donne politique post-juillet 2013. La question principale qui a guidé cette recherche était : dans quelle mesure les talk-shows ont-ils constitué une arène de parole dissidente ? La thèse démontre, à travers l’étude du processus qui a permis l’émergence de ces émissions, de leurs acteurs et de leurs modalités de fonctionnement, que ce dispositif s’est inscrit dans un espace public dessiné par des dynamiques particulières et caractérisé par un autoritarisme adaptif et libéralisé. Ce dispositif a également permis la manifestation de processus sociaux, notamment des mouvements d’opposition, en leur permettant de s’exprimer et de gagner en visibilité. Les talk-shows ont fait partie de différentes dynamiques politiques et les ont alimentées, défiant ainsi le pouvoir politique. Ils ont gagné des rôles et un espace de parole que le pays n’avait pas connu depuis 1952, dépassant leur fonction première qui était conçue par le pouvoir. Ce processus a pu avoir lieu malgré les outils de contrôle que le pouvoir a conservés pour garantir un minimum de mainmise sur les médias, élargissant ainsi les domaines de luttes et les espaces de contentieux. La thèse observe ensuite les dynamiques des révoltes de janvier 2011. Partant d’une approche interactionniste, d’un travail issu d’une enquête de terrain de plusieurs années, menée aussi bien auprès de professionnels de la télévision que d’invités de ces émissions et d’une analyse d’un corpus d’émissions, nous démontrons que le rôle des talk-shows fut incontournable dans le conflit médiatique doublant celui sur le terrain. / The subject of this thesis is the talk-shows, those socio-political tv shows that marked the media and political scene during the last years of Mubarak’s regime till the new political era post-July 2013. The main question that guided this research was: to what extent have the talk shows been an arena of dissident speech? The thesis demonstrates that this mechanism was a part of a public space designed by specific dynamics and branded by a liberalized and adaptive authoritarianism. It allowed the manifestation of social practices including counter movements endorsing them to express themselves and to gain visibility.Thus, through the study of the process that allowed the appearance of such shows, its actors and its operating methods, we observe how these broadcasts were a part of different political dynamics and served challenging the political power. They acquired roles and a freedom of expression that the country hadn’t experienced since 1952, exceeding their initial function as designed by the regime despite the means of control that the latter kept in order to maintain a minimum control on media and hence widening the fields of struggles and spaces of contentious. Then, the thesis studies the dynamics of January 2011 uprisings. Based on an interactionist approach and a work of several years field study of both television professionals and guests of these shows and an analysis of a record of broadcasts. We demonstrate that the talk-shows role was fundamental in the media conflict which doubled the conflict in the field.

1997年亞洲匯率危機的發生，引發學者對於危機發生原因的論戰。對於亞洲匯率危機發生的國家而言，究竟那些匯率危機理論具有解釋能力？又匯率危機是否是可以透過基本面的指標來預測的？假使可以效力又是如何？本文中為了回答這些問題，於是使用東亞六國包含印尼、韓國、馬來西亞、菲律賓、新加坡、泰國六個開發中國家1971-1998年的收據資料，並運用Probit的計量模型來進行實證研究。 本文實證結果發現，在匯率危機理論的解釋上，第一代匯率危機理論的論述，並不足以完全解釋東亞地區的發展中國家匯率危險的發生，必須再加上第二代的匯率危機理論的論述，才能完整找出東亞發展中國家匯率危機發生的決定因素。再者，在東亞地區發展中國家的匯率危機發生前，其基本面情況的確是程現亞化的趨勢。但是基本面惡化程度，並不足以單獨決定匯率危機的發生，必預加入除了基本面惡化程度，並不足以單獨決定匯率危機的發生，必須加入除了基本面以外，其它會影響投資人的行為和預期因素，如市場資訊不完全而造成群眾的盲從效果以及跨國的漫延效果......等等，綜合起來最後才會導致投機性攻擊而引發危機。換句話說，當政府在進行施政決策或者是投資人在進行經濟決策時，基本面因素或許不是政府或投資人唯一的考量，但卻是重要的考量之一。 另外，針對東亞地區匯率危機是否是可以預警以及預警效力如何的問題。經由實證結果，我們認為答案是肯定的，不論是從樣本內或樣本外來看這組解釋變數的指標的預測效力，都有超過百分之七十的預測水準。

Cette thèse conduit à nous interroger sur le caractère soutenable de l'accumulation chinoise, et à insister sur les éléments que ce pays comporte en commun avec le Brésil. La dynamique du processus d'accumulation de la Chine et du Brésil est envisagée à partir du comportement des entreprises nationales et étrangères, ainsi que de la structure socioéconomique de ces deux pays. Dans un premier temps, nous présentons les caractéristiques de l'évolution historique de la Chine afin de mieux comprendre la situation actuelle. Sont alors mises en évidence les raisons pour lesquelles le développement économique s'est réalisé de manière distincte en Chine et au Brésil, ainsi que son articulation historiquement différenciée avec le système capitaliste mondial. Ensuite, nous insistons sur le phénomène qui semble rapprocher le plus aujourd'hui la situation économique de la Chine de celle du Brésil : l'importance des inégalités. Alors que les inégalités semblent aujourd'hui peser sur l'accumulation brésilienne, la Chine maintient un taux de formation brute de capital fixe supérieur à 40%. Après une étude de l'évolution historique des appareils productifs chinois et brésiliens, l'accent est mis essentiellement sur les impasses vers lesquelles leur mode d'accumulation risque de les mener. Pour résumer, il s'agit de comprendre, à l'aune de l'économie brésilienne, les blocages vers lesquels la Chine se dirige, et de remettre en cause la thèse selon laquelle les pays de la Périphérie peuvent constituer une menace pour les économies du Centre. Bien au contraire, les blocages auxquels risque de se confronter le processus d'accumulation, aussi bien dans les pays du Centre que dans ceux de la Périphérie, sont dus aux caractéristiques propres du mode de production capitaliste, et sont inhérents au fonctionnement de celui-ci.

Cette thèse interroge les effets de la période des études supérieures sur le rapport à la politique. Elle montre, auprès des étudiants français du début du XXIème siècle, que la carrière étudiante, au sens interactionniste du terme, détermine la socialisation politique. Les variables de l'héritage demeurent certes très clivantes. Néanmoins, l'explication doit prendre en compte d'autres éléments liés à la scolarité. Les contextes d'études traversés, les placements et déplacements au cours de la scolarité, ainsi que les étapes qui jalonnent son déroulement interviennent dans l'activation et l'acquisition de dispositions favorables. La carrière étudiante, génératrice de crises identitaires, a d'autant plus de chances d'influer qu'elle est décisive sur les parcours. À partir de données quantitatives (questionnaires) et qualitatives (entretiens et observations), trois types de comportements politiques sont étudiés : politisation, orientation politique, et militantisme.

Les années 1990 ont été marquées par une succession de crises de balance des paiements d'une grande violence dans les économies en voie de développement récemment intégrées à la finance internationale. Ces crises se caractérisent par une brutale dépréciation réelle, une chute soudaine de l'investissement, un renversement des flux de financement externe et touchent plus particulièrement le secteur abrité de la concurrence internationale. Ce travail de recherche étudie l'impact de la structure sectorielle, en faisant la distinction entre le secteur abrité de la concurrence internationale et le secteur exposé, sur la possibilité de crises de balance des paiements dans une économie émergente. A cette fin, nous construisons quatre modèles théoriques différents d'une petite économie ouverte à deux secteurs. Nous modélisons une crise de balance des paiements comme une dépréciation réelle auto-réalisatrice qui repose sur des effets de bilan. Les modèles permettent également d'étudier les déterminants de la structure sectorielle ainsi que sa dynamique à la suite d'une libéralisation des mouvements de capitaux. Nos résultats montrent que les équilibres de crise existent lorsque la taille relative du secteur abrité est suffisamment grande. Ils montrent aussi qu'une forte libéralisation des mouvements de capitaux induit un accroissement de la taille relative de ce secteur et peut donc rendre l'économie financièrement fragile à long terme. Les conditions de cette fragilité financière à long terme font intervenir des facteurs internationaux, comme le taux d'intérêt mondial, mais aussi des facteurs structurels propres à chaque économie: intensité des contraintes d'endettement, progrès technique, niveaux sectoriels de développement technologique ou degré d'ouverture financière.

<p><strong><p>The purpose of this study was to illustrate how adult people think that, experiencing a war during their childhood has affected their lives. Questions at issue: 1. what does it mean to live in a war as a child? 2. How do the respondents think about possible significance of experiencing a war in their childhood and how their lives have turned out today?</p><p>The study is performed with a qualitative method of research, based on studies of literature, two individual interviews and a group interview. The result is presented on the basis of the theoretic perspective-phenomenology. The result connects back to the earlier research within the subject field and analyses through crisis theory, coping theory and KASAM.</p><p>The result shows that the respondents live the war within themselves. They still have nightmares and flashbacks from the wartime which still torment them. They are using different ways of coping to handle that. The study also shows that the respondents have a positive self-esteem and a great feeling of compassion towards other people, especially towards children who live in war counties.</p></strong></p>

<p>Försvarsmakten har sedan sekelskiftet gått ifrån att vara ett invasionsförsvar till att bli ett insatsförsvar. Under denna omvandling har Försvarsmakten blivit allt mindre och fått en mer internationell inriktning. Förband har lagts ned, personal sagts upp och materiel skrotats. Författaren är intresserad av att se hur detta har påverkat Försvarsmakten som en samhällsresurs.</p><p>Problemet som ställs i uppsatsen är huruvida regeringen har anpassat Försvarsmaktens uppgift att stärka det svenska samhället vid svåra påfrestningar i fred, mot bakgrund av den omvandling som skett. Syftet med denna uppsats är sålunda att undersöka och jämföra om uppgiften att stärka det svenska samhället vid svåra påfrestningar i fred har förändrats, utvecklats eller anpassats till det nya insatsförsvaret som Sverige har idag.</p><p>Som metod används en komparativ och kvalitativ textanalys av utvalda propositioner, departementsserier och regleringsbrev. De fakta i dokumenten som berör uppsatsämnet analyseras och jämförs, för att sedan sammanfattas och diskuteras. </p><p>Resultatet i uppsatsen påvisar att regeringen inte har ändrat uppgiften att stärka det svenska samhället vid svåra påfrestningar i fred, som ställs till Försvarsmakten. Men det påvisar även att en kontinuerlig anpassning av uppgiften sker i form av ett samarbete med andra myndigheter, denna utveckling kan följas på olika sätt i de utvalda källorna.</p><p>Författaren har dragit slutsatser kring det presenterade resultatet och kommit fram till att regeringen inte behövt ändra uppgiften. Men för att kunna effektivisera utnyttjandet av de resurser som Försvarsmakten kan tillföra vid svåra påfrestningar bör regeringen utveckla och precisera hur Försvarsmakten skall utnyttjas med störst effektivitet.</p> / <p>The Swedish Armed Forces has, since the turn of the century, transformed from an invasion defence to a type of mission oriented defence. This means that the Swedish armed forces have become smaller in volume, material has been terminated, a lot of personnel have been terminated and the amount of conscripts heavily reduced. The author is interested in how this has affected the Swedish armed force as recourse to the Swedish society.</p><p>Before and under the transformation, one of the Swedish armed forces duties has been to strengthen the Swedish society when hard tensions have emerged in peacetime. This duty has been presented in the regulations that the Swedish government give to the Swedish Armed Forces every year.  The duty is also one of the duties presented in the regulation that controls the Swedish Armed Forces activities.</p><p>The problem that is presented in the essay is how the Swedish government has adjusted this duty to the Swedish Armed Forces with this transformation in mind. The purpose of this essay is therefore to investigate and compare if the duties have been changed, developed and/or adjusted to the new Swedish armed forces as it is today.</p><p>The result of this paper shows that the government has not changed the duty to strengthen the society when hard tensions come. However, it also shows that there is a continuing adjustment to the duty in form of cooperation with other authorities. This development can be seen in different ways in the varying sources that have been presented in the essay.</p><p>The author has drawn some conclusions concerning the presented results and reached a conclusion that the government does not have to change the duty. It can be preserved as it is today. In order to use the resources that the Swedish armed forces contribute more efficiently, the government has to develop and specify how the Swedish armed forces can be used with the greatest efficiency.</p>