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Trenden med stort fokus på utdelning bland investerare håller i sig år 2019 och storbolagen förväntas betala ut över 250 miljarder svenska kronor. Bolag undviker att sänka sin utdelning, oavsett om det går bra eller dåligt, för att inte ge signaler om negativa framtidsutsikter. Den aktuella studien undersöker om den svenska aktiemarknaden, i enlighet med signaleringsteorin, följer de signaler som bolagsledningen sänder ut genom sin utdelning. Studien är en eventstudie och har en kvantitativ ansats med ett eventfönster på 11 dagar och en estimeringsperiod på 120 dagar. Urvalet består av 89 bolag från Stockholmsbörsens Large Cap lista. Resultatet visar en signifikant abnormal avkastning vid sänkt utdelning i linje med signaleringsteorin. Vid oförändrad eller höjd utdelning återfinns ingen signifikant abnormal avkastning och därmed finns inget stöd för signaleringsteorin. Slutsatsen är att den svenska aktiemarknaden följer signaleringsteorin vid sänkt utdelning men inte vid höjd. / The trend with a strong focus on dividends among investors is continuing in 2019 and the major companies are expected to pay out over SEK 250 billion. Companies avoid reducing their dividends in order to prevent signals of negative prospects. The current study investigates whether the Swedish stock market, in accordance with the signaling theory, follows the signals that corporate management sends out through its dividend. This study is an event study and has a quantitative approach with an event window of 11 days and an estimation period of 120 days. The sample consists of 89 companies from the Stockholm Stock Exchange's Large Cap list. The result show a significant abnormal return on reduced dividends in line with the signaling theory. With unchanged or increased dividends there is no significant abnormal return, hence there is no support for the signaling theory. The conclusion is that the Swedish stock market follows the signaling theory when the dividend is reduced, but not when increased.

Submitted by Maicon Juliano Schmidt (maicons) on 2015-06-15T13:06:43Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Jéferson Rodrigo Ströher.pdf: 859725 bytes, checksum: e762d90a4c59cf0d13e4fcf3b22f8df3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-06-15T13:06:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jéferson Rodrigo Ströher.pdf: 859725 bytes, checksum: e762d90a4c59cf0d13e4fcf3b22f8df3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-03-31 / Nenhuma / A política de dividendos é importante por envolver a tomada de decisão de distribuir ou não volumes de recursos financeiros através de dividendos ou de juros sobre capital próprio em percentuais diferenciados e formas de tributação diferenciadas no caso Brasileiro. O objetivo deste trabalho foi identificar quais os fatores impactam o índice Payout, como tamanho, liquidez, rentabilidade, endividamento, investimento, lucro, receita e concentração. Para analisar estes aspectos, utilizou-se a técnica de regressão quantílica, com dados da base da Economática e empresas representadas na BM&FBovespa no período de 2009 a 2013, compreendendo 3.073 observações. As estimativas permitem concluir que: a) há uma relação positiva entre tamanho da empresa e a dependente em todos os quantis; b) A variável liquidez foi relacionada positivamente com a variável payout nos quantis 0.5 e 0.75; c) a rentabilidade apresentou relação positiva a partir do quantil 0.5; d) uma relação negativa do endividamento a partir do quantil 0.5; e) uma relação negativa nos quartis 0.75 e 0.9 do investimento; f) O lucro líquido apresentou uma relação negativa no quartil 0.5; g) A receita apresentou uma relação positiva na mediana e no quartil 0.9; h) A concentração não apresentou significância estatística a 1%, no entanto verifica-se uma relação positiva no 0.75 e 0.9 e negativa nos outros quartis; i) Duas dummy’s sendo uma financeira que apresentou relação positiva no quartil 0.1 a 0.5 e a dummy de empresas que distribuíram proventos mesmo com prejuízo que apresentou uma associação negativa e cada vez mais forte. Todas as relações descritas mostram como a variável payout variou de acordo com modificações das variáveis descritas acima. / The dividend policy is importante because it covers the decision-making to distribute or not volumes of financial resources through dividendo or of interest over own capital in differentiate percentuals and tributation differentiate options in the Brazilian case. The objective of this work was to identify which factors impact the payout index, as size, liquidity, rentability, debt, investment, profit, revenue and concentration. To analize these aspects, the quantile regression technique was used, with data from the Economatica base and enterprises represented at BM&F Bovespa in the period from 2009 to 2013, comprehending 3.073 observations. The estimatives allow to conclude that: a) there is a positive ralation between enterprise size and the dependent variable in all the quantiles; b) the liquidity variable had a positive relation with the payout variable in the 0.5 and 0.75 quantile;c)the renatibility presented a positive relation fom the quantile 0,5 on;d)negative relation from the 0.5 quantile on; e) a negative relation in the quantile 0.75 and 0.9 with investment;f)the net profit presented a negative relation in the quantile 0.5;g)the revenue presented a positive relation in the median and 0.9 quantile;h)the concentration didn’t presented statistic significance at 1%, but there was verifyed a positive relation in the 0.75 and 0.9 quantile and negative in the others;i)Two dummys, one finantial that presented a positive relation in the quantile 0.1 and 0.5 and the dummy of the enterprises that distribute proceeds even with losses had a negative and stronger association with the variable payout. All the relations described show how the variable payout had varyed according to the modifications of the described variables above.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T16:45:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Romulo Olindo Rigon Coimbra e Silva.pdf: 921908 bytes, checksum: d2e954a39ed1fa1555706e3ef08e501d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-05-12 / This research had the main purpose to verify whether is possible to capture informational content of changes in dividends preceded by earnings changes with same sign and with opposite sign, in the brazilian capital market, between 2000 through 2006. The research has tried to verify whether the sign and the magnitude of changes in dividends are recognized by the market as an informational content regarding the persistence or not persistence of past earnings changes. Additionally, this study has tried to investigate whether the market use changes in dividends as an informational content concerning future profitability of the company. According to the results, changes in dividends are not interpreted by the brazilian capital market as informational content regarding the persistence or not persistence of past earnings changes. The sign of changes in dividends is not interpreted as an informational content regarding the persistence or not persistence of past earnings changes. The magnitude of changes in dividends is not interpreted as informational content regarding the persistence or not persistence of past earnings changes. Furthermore, the market does not use changes in dividends as information concerning future profitability of the company / O presente trabalho teve como objetivo principal verificar se é possível capturar conteúdo informacional nas mudanças de dividendos precedidas por mudanças nos lucros de mesmo sinal e de sinal oposto, ocorridas no mercado de capitais brasileiro, entre o período de 2000 e 2006. Buscou-se verificar se o sinal e a magnitude das mudanças de dividendos são reconhecidos pelo mercado como conteúdo informacional acerca da persistência ou da não persistência das mudanças precedentes de lucros. Adicionalmente, buscou-se verificar se o mercado utiliza mudanças de dividendos como conteúdo informacional sobre a lucratividade futura da empresa. Os resultados demonstram que mudanças de dividendos não são interpretadas pelo mercado de capitais brasileiro como conteúdo informacional relacionado à persistência ou à não persistência das mudanças precedentes dos lucros. O sinal das mudanças de dividendos também não é interpretado como conteúdo informacional sobre a persistência ou a não persistência das mudanças precedentes dos lucros. A magnitude das mudanças de dividendos não é reconhecida pelo mercado como conteúdo informacional referente à persistência ou à não persistência das mudanças precedentes de lucros. Além disso, o mercado não utiliza mudanças de dividendos como fonte de informação acerca da lucratividade futura da empresa

本研究針對民國78年至82年，共計5年間，台灣證券市場上市公司，有第一次發放現金股利，或現金增資發行新股，或發放＞＝25%股票股利公司為研究對象。所謂第一次發放現金股利，係指一公司公開股票上市以來，第一次發放現金股利，或至少間隔三年以來之發放現金股利。 　　運用事件研究法之單一市場模式分析異常報酬，並以資產貝他與盈餘變動指標衡量事業風險。主要探討事件宣告前後二年公司盈餘或事業風險之變化，及市場投資人對宣告事件之解析與反映。依據訊號發射假說「經理人可能會透過財務政策，將某些訊息傳達給市場，如資本結構改變或股利政策」，而管理當局與投資人間之資訊不對稱現象，因訊號可降低代理成本，使得股利發放含有資訊內容。 　　而本研究所獲結論如下： 　　一、「第一次發放現金股利」之結論 　　不論市場榮枯，第一次發放現金股利宣告是項好消息，投資者有正面反映，宣告日前消息已走漏，在多頭市場可能有人為介入，空頭市場消息走漏較早，使得投資人提前反映，以致宣告日後資訊效果微弱。而台灣之上市公司之「第一次發放現金股利」決策頗能遵行穩定股利政策，且以第一次發放現金股利決策為工具，傳送公司經營績效之訊息。不論市場榮枯，公司管理當局在盈餘穩定成長後，且預期未來也能維持成長的水準，才決定發放現金股利，所以第一次發放現金股利支持「股利資訊內容假說」，隱含有未來盈餘增加之訊息，投資者也能正確解析管理當局所制定之歷史性股利政策之含意，而有正面反映。 　　二、「現金增資」之結論 　　現金增資核准宣告市場投資人之反映因市場榮枯而不同，多頭市場時現金增資核准宣告不是好消息，投資人有負面反映，空頭市場時卻是項好消息，投資人有正面反映，而核准前皆有消息走漏，在多頭市場時可能有人為介入，核准後有資訊效果，多頭市場時資訊效果較弱。不論市場榮枯，台灣之上市公司，在負債權益比上升、事業風險上升及盈餘惡化後辦理現金增資，亦即管理當局鑑於公司經營績效差，並預測財務危機機率增加時辦理現金增資，但財務結構改善後，經營績效未必好轉，多頭市場時投資人尚能正確解析此一現象，而有負面反映，空頭市場時投資人卻未能正確解析真實現象，可能是因空頭市場時之舉債程度較多頭市場時低，讓投資者失去戒心所致。 　　三、「股票股利」之結論 　　不論市場榮枯，除權是項好消息投資者有正面反映，為配得股利在除權前數日已反映完畢，除權後有資訊效果，惟多頭市場之反映較早結束，除權後之資訊效果空頭市場時較弱。台灣上市公司在大額股票股利發放前盈餘穩定成長，但未隱含發放股利後經營績效提升之訊息，投資人未能正確解析此現象，而有正面反映，可能是國人偏好股票股利所致。

本研究從代理理論及現金政策觀點，探討家族企業與非家族企業在股利政策上之異同，並進一步分析市占率之影響。本研究就三個不同層面來分析家族特性對股利政策之影響，實證結果發現家族企業和非家族企業在現金股利、股票股利政策之選擇上，有所不同。相較於非家族企業，家族企業較不會發放、發放較少現金股利及股票股利，且較不會增加現金股利，且若家族企業市占率愈低時，較不會發放、發放較少、較不會增加現金股利及股票股利。 / We investigate whether there is any difference between family and non-family firms on dividend policy. Consistent with my predictions, the results indicate that family firms are generally different from non-family firms in both cash and stock dividend policies. We find that family firms are less likely to pay dividends and tend to pay less dividends. Also, family firms are less likely to increase cash dividends. These findings are more pronounced when family firms have less market share.

Bakgrund: De svenska börsbolagen gör större vinster än någonsin tidigare, men har fått stor kritik för att vara för långsamma i sin vinstallokering. Företag med överkapitaliserade balansräkningar utan investeringsbehov är potentiella måltavlor för riskkapitalisternas affärsidé om finansiell effektivisering och en aggressivare kapitalstruktur. Debatten i media har skapat kritik kring dessa så kallade kortsiktiga och giriga bolagsplundrare som påstås förstöra finansiella värden och kreditvärdigheten i företagen. I tidigare fall har marknaden svarat positivt på riskkapitalisternas investeringar, något som har reflekterats i ett kraftigt ökande aktiepris. Skeptiker hävdar dock att spekulationer är anledningen till att marknadsvärdet drivs upp, inte fundamentala aspekter. Syfte: Syftet med denna magisteruppsats är att fastställa en bild av fenomenet riskkapital och hur dess aktiva ägande inverkar på svenska börsbolags kreditbetyg, kapitalstruktur och värdering. Metod: För att uppnå syftet med vår magisteruppsats har en kvalitativ ansats till-lämpats baserad på tre börsbolag där riskkapitalisters aktiva ägande spelat en betydande roll. Det empiriska materialet har insamlats genom personliga intervjuer med aktie- och kreditanalytiker, och studien förlitar sig även på markandsdata, artiklar och nyhetssändningar i media, samt respektive bolags kvartals- och årsrapporter. Slutsats: Studien har gjorts over den tidsperiod som varit riskkapitalisternas inve-steringshorisont – explicit och implicit. Genom att analysera det aktiva ägarskapet i tre svenska börsbolag kan slutsatsen dras att det inverkat positivt i form av högre prestanda och marknadsvärdering. De finansiella förändringarna har, till skillnad från kritiken, styrkt kreditbetyget i fallen Lindex och Volvo. En analys av Skandia/Old Mutual visade dock en marginellt ökad kreditrisk. Slutsatsen visar härmed att riskkapitalisternas inverkan på svenska börsbolag är värdeförädlande utan att äventyra den finansiella statusen. / Background: The Swedish blue chip companies are performing better than ever, but have been strongly criticised for being too slow in their excess fund allocation. Companies with overcapitalised balance sheets and no investment needs are potential targets for activist funds’ business idea of more aggressive capital structures and financial restructuring. In media, this debate has raised criticism against these so called short-sighted, greedy asset-strippers that destroy company values and increase the companies’ risk of default. In prior cases where activist funds have taken actions, the market has responded positively through increasing the share price. However, sceptics argue that the higher share price is merely a response to a speculative reaction with no fundamental argument supporting the upgrade in market capitalisation. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to establish a view of the phenomenon of activist funds and their impact on blue chip companies’, listed on the Stockholm Stock Exchange, credit rating, capital structure and valuation. Method: To fulfil the purpose of our master thesis, a qualitative approach has been applied based on three cases involving the activities of activist funds. The empirical findings have been retrieved via personal communications with stock- and credit analysts, and the study also relies on articles and news coverage from media, stock market data and annual reports from each of the chosen companies respectively. Conclusion: The study has regarded the period of time which has been the investment horizon of the activist funds – explicitly and implicitly. Analysing their active ownership, the conclusion can be drawn that these activist funds have clearly had a positive impact on each of the blue chip companies’ performance and intrinsic value respectively. The financial restructuring has - contrarily to the criticism – strengthened the credit ratings in the cases of Lindex and Volvo. In the Skandia/Old Mutual-case, a marginally higher default risk was detected. Thus, the study has concluded that activist funds indeed add significant shareholder value without jeopardising the companies’ financial statuses.

The dividend policy and the distribution of cash dividend can be of interest to the investors from many angles. Consequently, many theories have been built on the relevance of dividend policy and there are several theories proposing that dividends increase shareholder value. However, the most famous theory on dividend policy might be Miller and Modigliani's dividend irrelevance theory which implies that the dividend policy does not affect shareholder value. Although investors are concerned with shareholder value they are also concerned with achieving the highest possible return with the lowest volatility (risk). As many studies have focused on the dividend policy, especially dividend yield or the dividend payout ratio, and its relation with stock price movement we felt that there was a lack of information regarding the relation between return volatility and cash dividends. This resulted in the following research question: Does a change in cash dividend affect stock return volatility on NASDAQ OMX Stockholm? Answering this research question is the main purpose of the research. Additionally, the relationship between changes in cash dividend and return volatility will be compared in the different size segments that are to be found on NASDAQ OMX Stockholm. The study is quantitative with a deductive approach where historical data ranging from 2006-2012 has been gathered. Two measures of return volatility has been used, beta and standard deviation of return. Statistical tests have been conducted in an approach to answer the research question, mainly correlation tests and logistic regression analysis. No correlation between changes in cash dividend and changes in beta, nor changes in standard deviation were found. The same results were found when examining small, mid and large cap individually. In the logistic regression analysis no evidence was found that changes in dividend could explain changes in return volatility. Contrary to changes in dividend, the results indicate that the size of the company can explain changes in return volatility. Specifically, large cap companies explain increases in return volatility better than companies in the small cap segment. Therefore, the research question is concluded with no, a change in cash dividend does not affect stock return volatility. The findings could also be argued to be in support of the dividend irrelevance theory. Furthermore, the conclusion implies that investors need not regard the dividend policy when diversifying their portfolios. Additionally, managers need not be worried that a change in dividend policy should affect return volatility.

In this thesis, I take a theoretical dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) approach to investigate optimal aggregate dividend policy. I make the following contribution: 1. I extend the standard DSGE model to incorporate a residual dividend policy, external financing and default and find that simulated optimal aggregate payouts are much more volatile than the observed data when other variables are close to the values observed in the data. 2. I examine the sensitivity of optimal aggregate dividend policy to the level of the representative agent's habit motive. My results show that, when the habit motive gets stronger, the volatility of optimal aggregate payouts increases while the volatility of aggregate consumption decreases. This is consistent with the hypothesis that investors use cash payouts from well diversified portfolios to help smooth consumption. 3. I demonstrate that the variability of optimal aggregate payouts is sensitive to capital adjustment costs. My simulated results show that costly frictions from changing the capital base of the firm cause optimal aggregate dividends and real investments to be smooth and share prices to be volatile. This finding is consistent with prior empirical observations. 4. I run simulations that support the hypothesis that optimal aggregate dividend policy is similar when the representative firm is risk averse to when it has capital adjustment costs. In both cases, optimal aggregate dividends volatility is very low. 5. In all calibrated DSGE models, apart from case 4, optimal aggregate payouts are found to be countercyclical. This supports the hypothesis that corporations prefer to hold more free cash flows for potential investment opportunities instead of paying dividends when the economy is booming, but is inconsistent with observed data. Keywords: Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE), real business cycle, utility function, habits, dividends.

By using five measures of corporate governance, this paper sheds light on the relationship between corporate governance, firm performance and firm valuation in a sample of large Swedish firms between 2013-2016. The study is conducted on the grounds of the Agency Theory as proposed by Jensen and Meckling (1976) and influenced by corporate governance research by Bhagat and Bolton (2008). Using Tobin’s Q and return on assets (ROA) as estimates of firm valuation and firm performance respectively, we find mixed results compared to prior research concerning the effects of good corporate governance. Our study shows that greater equity holdings of board members are significantly and positively impactful on Tobin’s Q as well as ROA. Furthermore, we find that a larger board size has a significant inverse relationship with both Tobin’s Q and ROA, which is consistent with prior research suggesting that smaller boards are more effective. Interestingly and partly inconclusive with prior research however, we find that greater equity holdings of the CEO is significantly and negatively impactful on Tobin’s Q as well as ROA. These results are robust for multiple controls and various models.