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Sequential Machine learning Approaches for Portfolio ManagementChapados, Nicolas 11 1900 (has links)
No description available.
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Online systém pro vizuální geo-lokalizaci v přírodním prostředí / Online System for Visual Geo-Localization in Natural EnvironmentPospíšil, Miroslav January 2018 (has links)
The goal of this master thesis is creation of an online system serving as a performing application for presentation results of visual geo-localization in nature and mountain environment. The system offers the users to choose one of the pre-defined photographs or~to~upload one's own photography while choosing a file or inserting an URL address. The~system will localizate a camera of a given image based on a visual geo-localization. The~geo-localization uses the mountain horizon as a key characteristic when searching for similar horizons. The~curve line of the horizon is extracted by a fully automatic algorithm based on supervised learning and dynamic programming. Visual geo-localization running on the server which using new inversed index with cache politic. This allows further scaling of the system. The server processing detected horizon curve and respond with set of the best candidates on results. Results are visualised to the user in form of classic map, detailed sattelite view and rendering of found panorama.
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Stratégies optimales d'investissement et de consommation pour des marchés financiers de type"spread" / Optimal investment and consumption strategies for spread financial marketsAlbosaily, Sahar 07 December 2018 (has links)
Dans cette thèse, on étudie le problème de la consommation et de l’investissement pour le marché financier de "spread" (différence entre deux actifs) défini par le processus Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU). Ce manuscrit se compose de sept chapitres. Le chapitre 1 présente une revue générale de la littérature et un bref résumé des principaux résultats obtenus dans cetravail où différentes fonctions d’utilité sont considérées. Dans le chapitre 2, on étudie la stratégie optimale de consommation / investissement pour les fonctions puissances d’utilité pour un intervalle de temps réduit a 0 < t < T < T0. Dans ce chapitre, nous étudions l’équation de Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) par la méthode de Feynman - Kac (FK). L’approximation numérique de la solution de l’équation de HJB est étudiée et le taux de convergence est établi. Il s’avère que dans ce cas, le taux de convergencedu schéma numérique est super–géométrique, c’est-à-dire plus rapide que tous ceux géométriques. Les principaux théorèmes sont énoncés et des preuves de l’existence et de l’unicité de la solution sont données. Un théorème de vérification spécial pour ce cas des fonctions puissances est montré. Le chapitre 3 étend notre approche au chapitre précédent à la stratégie de consommation/investissement optimale pour tout intervalle de temps pour les fonctions puissances d’utilité où l’exposant γ doit être inférieur à 1/4. Dans le chapitre 4, on résout le problème optimal de consommation/investissement pour les fonctions logarithmiques d’utilité dans le cadre du processus OU multidimensionnel en se basant sur la méthode de programmation dynamique stochastique. En outre, on montre un théorème de vérification spécial pour ce cas. Le théorème d’existence et d’unicité pour la solution classique de l’équation de HJB sous forme explicite est également démontré. En conséquence, les stratégies financières optimales sont construites. Quelques exemples sont donnés pour les cas scalaires et pour les cas multivariés à volatilité diagonale. Le modèle de volatilité stochastique est considéré dans le chapitre 5 comme une extension du chapitre précédent des fonctions logarithmiques d’utilité. Le chapitre 6 propose des résultats et des théorèmes auxiliaires nécessaires au travail.Le chapitre 7 fournit des simulations numériques pour les fonctions puissances et logarithmiques d’utilité. La valeur du point fixe h de l’application de FK pour les fonctions puissances d’utilité est présentée. Nous comparons les stratégies optimales pour différents paramètres à travers des simulations numériques. La valeur du portefeuille pour les fonctions logarithmiques d’utilité est également obtenue. Enfin, nous concluons nos travaux et présentons nos perspectives dans le chapitre 8. / This thesis studies the consumption/investment problem for the spread financial market defined by the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process. Recently, the OU process has been used as a proper financial model to reflect underlying prices of assets. The thesis consists of 8 Chapters. Chapter 1 presents a general literature review and a short view of the main results obtained in this work where different utility functions have been considered. The optimal consumption/investment strategy are studied in Chapter 2 for the power utility functions for small time interval, that 0 < t < T < T0. Main theorems have been stated and the existence and uniqueness of the solution has been proven. Numeric approximation for the solution of the HJB equation has been studied and the convergence rate has been established. In this case, the convergence rate for the numerical scheme is super geometrical, i.e., more rapid than any geometrical ones. A special verification theorem for this case has been shown. In this chapter, we have studied the Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation through the Feynman–Kac (FK) method. The existence and uniqueness theorem for the classical solution for the HJB equation has been shown. Chapter 3 extended our approach from the previous chapter of the optimal consumption/investment strategies for the power utility functions for any time interval where the power utility coefficient γ should be less than 1/4. Chapter 4 addressed the optimal consumption/investment problem for logarithmic utility functions for multivariate OU process in the base of the stochastic dynamical programming method. As well it has been shown a special verification theorem for this case. It has been demonstrated the existence and uniqueness theorem for the classical solution for the HJB equation in explicit form. As a consequence the optimal financial strategies were constructed. Some examples have been stated for a scalar case and for a multivariate case with diagonal volatility. Stochastic volatility markets has been considered in Chapter 5 as an extension for the previous chapter of optimization problem for the logarithmic utility functions. Chapter 6 proposed some auxiliary results and theorems that are necessary for the work. Numerical simulations has been provided in Chapter 7 for power and logarithmic utility functions. The fixed point value h for power utility has been presented. We study the constructed strategies by numerical simulations for different parameters. The value function for the logarithmic utilities has been shown too. Finally, Chapter 8 reflected the results and possible limitations or solutions
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Route choice and traffic equilibrium modeling in multi-modal and activity-based networksZimmermann, Maëlle 06 1900 (has links)
No description available.
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Online Resource Allocation in Dynamic Optical NetworksRomero Reyes, Ronald 13 May 2019 (has links)
Konventionelle, optische Transportnetze haben die Bereitstellung von High-Speed-Konnektivität in Form von langfristig installierten Verbindungen konstanter Bitrate ermöglicht. Die Einrichtungszeiten solcher Verbindungen liegen in der Größenordnung von Wochen, da in den meisten Fällen manuelle Eingriffe erforderlich sind. Nach der Installation bleiben die Verbindungen für Monate oder Jahre aktiv. Das Aufkommen von Grid Computing und Cloud-basierten Diensten bringt neue Anforderungen mit sich, die von heutigen optischen Transportnetzen nicht mehr erfüllt werden können. Dies begründet die Notwendigkeit einer Umstellung auf dynamische, optische Netze, welche die kurzfristige Bereitstellung von Bandbreite auf Nachfrage (Bandwidth on Demand - BoD) ermöglichen. Diese Netze müssen Verbindungen mit unterschiedlichen Bitratenanforderungen, mit zufälligen Ankunfts- und Haltezeiten und stringenten Einrichtungszeiten realisieren können. Grid Computing und Cloud-basierte Dienste führen in manchen Fällen zu Verbindungsanforderungen mit Haltezeiten im Bereich von Sekunden, wobei die Einrichtungszeiten im Extremfall in der Größenordnung von Millisekunden liegen können.
Bei optischen Netzen für BoD muss der Verbindungsaufbau und -abbau, sowie das Netzmanagement ohne manuelle Eingriffe vonstattengehen. Die dafür notwendigen Technologien sind Flex-Grid-Wellenlängenmultiplexing, rekonfigurierbare optische Add / Drop-Multiplexer (ROADMs) und bandbreitenvariable, abstimmbare Transponder. Weiterhin sind Online-Ressourcenzuweisungsmechanismen erforderlich, um für jede eintreffende Verbindungsanforderung abhängig vom aktuellen Netzzustand entscheiden zu können, ob diese akzeptiert werden kann und welche Netzressourcen hierfür reserviert werden. Dies bedeutet, dass die Ressourcenzuteilung als Online-Optimierungsproblem behandelt werden muss. Die Entscheidungen sollen so getroffen werden, dass auf lange Sicht ein vorgegebenes Optimierungsziel erreicht wird. Die Ressourcenzuweisung bei dynamischen optischen Netzen lässt sich in die Teilfunktionen Routing- und Spektrumszuteilung (RSA), Verbindungsannahmekontrolle (CAC) und Dienstgütesteuerung (GoS Control) untergliedern.
In dieser Dissertation wird das Problem der Online-Ressourcenzuteilung in dynamischen optischen Netzen behandelt. Es wird die Theorie der Markov-Entscheidungsprozesse (MDP) angewendet, um die Ressourcenzuweisung als Online-Optimierungsproblem zu formulieren. Die MDP-basierte Formulierung hat zwei Vorteile. Zum einen lassen sich verschiedene Optimierungszielfunktionen realisieren (z.B. die Minimierung der Blockierungswahrscheinlichkeiten oder die Maximierung der wirtschaftlichen Erlöse). Zum anderen lässt sich die Dienstgüte von Gruppen von Verbindungen mit spezifischen Verkehrsparametern gezielt beeinflussen (und damit eine gewisse GoS-Steuerung realisieren). Um das Optimierungsproblem zu lösen, wird in der Dissertation ein schnelles, adaptives und zustandsabhängiges Verfahren vorgestellt, dass im realen Netzbetrieb rekursiv ausgeführt wird und die Teilfunktionen RSA und CAC umfasst. Damit ist das Netz in der Lage, für jede eintreffende Verbindungsanforderung eine optimale Ressourcenzuweisung zu bestimmen. Weiterhin wird in der Dissertation die Implementierung des Verfahrens unter Verwendung eines 3-Way-Handshake-Protokolls für den Verbindungsaufbau betrachtet und ein analytisches Modell vorgestellt, um die Verbindungsaufbauzeit abzuschätzen. Die Arbeit wird abgerundet durch eine Bewertung der Investitionskosten (CAPEX) von dynamischen optischen Netzen. Es werden die wichtigsten Kostenfaktoren und die Beziehung zwischen den Kosten und der Performanz des Netzes analysiert. Die Leistungsfähigkeit aller in der Arbeit vorgeschlagenen Verfahren sowie die Genauigkeit des analytischen Modells zur Bestimmung der Verbindungsaufbauzeit wird durch umfangreiche Simulationen nachgewiesen. / Conventional optical transport networks have leveraged the provisioning of high-speed connectivity in the form of long-term installed, constant bit-rate connections. The setup times of such connections are in the order of weeks, given that in most cases manual installation is required. Once installed, connections remain active for months or years. The advent of grid computing and cloud-based services brings new connectivity requirements which cannot be met by the present-day optical transport network. This has raised awareness on the need for a changeover to dynamic optical networks that enable the provisioning of bandwidth on demand (BoD) in the optical domain. These networks will have to serve connections with different bit-rate requirements, with random interarrival times and durations, and with stringent setup latencies. Ongoing research has shown that grid computing and cloud-based services may in some cases request connections with holding times ranging from seconds to hours, and with setup latencies that must be in the order of milliseconds.
To provide BoD, dynamic optical networks must perform connection setup, maintenance and teardown without manual labour. For that, software-configurable networks are needed that are deployed with enough capacity to automatically establish connections. Recently, network architectures have been proposed for
that purpose that embrace flex-grid wavelength division multiplexing, reconfigurable optical add/drop multiplexers, and bandwidth variable and tunable transponders as the main technology drivers. To exploit the benefits of these technologies, online resource allocation methods are necessary to ensure that during network operation the installed capacity is efficiently assigned to connections. As connections may arrive and depart randomly, the traffic matrix is unknown, and hence, each connection request submitted to the network has to be processed independently. This implies that resource allocation must be tackled as an online optimization problem which for each connection request, depending on the network state, decides whether the request is admitted or rejected. If admitted, a further decision is made on which resources are assigned to the connection. The decisions are so calculated that, in the long-run, a desired performance objective is optimized. To achieve its goal, resource allocation implements control functions for routing and spectrum allocation (RSA), connection admission control (CAC), and grade of service (GoS) control.
In this dissertation we tackle the problem of online resource allocation in dynamic optical networks. For that, the theory of Markov decision processes (MDP) is applied to formulate resource allocation as an online optimization problem. An MDP-based formulation has two relevant advantages. First, the problem
can be solved to optimize an arbitrarily defined performance objective (e.g. minimization of blocking probability or maximization of economic revenue). Secondly, it can provide GoS control for groups of connections with different statistical properties. To solve the optimization problem, a fast, adaptive and
state-dependent online algorithm is proposed to calculate a resource allocation policy. The calculation is performed recursively during network operation, and uses algorithms for RSA and CAC. The resulting policy is a course of action that instructs the network how to process each connection request. Furthermore,
an implementation of the method is proposed that uses a 3-way handshake protocol for connection setup, and an analytical performance evaluation model is derived to estimate the connection setup latency. Our study is complemented by an evaluation of the capital expenditures of dynamic optical networks. The
main cost drivers are identified.
The performance of the methods proposed in this thesis, including the accuracy of the analytical evaluation of the connection setup latency, were evaluated by simulations. The contributions from the thesis provide a novel approach that meets the requirements envisioned for resource allocation in dynamic optical networks.
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[pt] AVERSÃO A RISCO E POLÍTICA ÓTIMA DE INVESTIMENTOS E FINANCIAMENTOS DE UMA CORPORAÇÃO: UMA ABORDAGEM VIA PROGRAMAÇÃO DINÂMICA ESTOCÁSTICA / [en] RISK AVERSION AND OPTIMAL INVESTMENT AND FINANCING CORPORATE POLICY: A STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING APPROACH22 March 2021 (has links)
[pt] Finanças Corporativas tem como objetivo encontrar a política de investimentos
e financiamentos que maximize o valor para o acionista. Baseada
no modelo estático de Modigliani e Miller, a literatura recente apresenta
modelos dinâmicos que buscam maior aderência à realidade. No entanto,
para obter uma metodologia de solução computacionalmente tratável, duas
simplificações são usualmente adotadas: (i) agentes financeiros são neutros
a risco; (ii) custo de financiamento são fixos e independentes da alavancagem
da empresa. Neste trabalho, é proposto um modelo de programação
dinâmica estocástica para a determinação da política ótima de investimentos
e financiamentos considerando acionistas avessos a risco e empresas
que enfrentam incerteza na receita e custos marginais de financiamentos
não-decrescentes com o nível de alavancagem da empresa. O modelo proposto
é resolvido de maneira eficiente utilizando o algoritmo de Programação
Dinâmica Dual Estocástica. Ao final do trabalho, são realizados estudos empíricos
e análises de sensibilidade para melhor compreensão das políticas de
investimentos e financiamentos das corporações. / [en] Corporate Finance is the study of investment and financing policies
in order to maximize shareholder value. Based on the static model of
Modigliani and Miller, recent literature presents dynamic models that seek
greater adherence to reality. However, to obtain a computationally treatable
solution methodology, two simplifications are usually adopted: (i) financial
agents are risk neutral; (ii) cost of financing is static and independent of the
company s leverage. In this work, a dynamic stochastic programming model
is proposed to determine the optimum investment and financing policy,
considering risk-averse shareholders and companies that face uncertainty
on income and non-decreasing marginal costs of financing. The proposed
model is efficiently solved using the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming
algorithm. At the end of the study, empirical studies and sensitivity analyzes
are carried out to the better understanding of corporate investment and
financing policies.
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Accelerated algorithms for temporal difference learning methodsRankawat, Anushree 12 1900 (has links)
L'idée centrale de cette thèse est de comprendre la notion d'accélération dans les algorithmes d'approximation stochastique. Plus précisément, nous tentons de répondre à la question suivante : Comment l'accélération apparaît-elle naturellement dans les algorithmes d'approximation stochastique ? Nous adoptons une approche de systèmes dynamiques et proposons de nouvelles méthodes accélérées pour l'apprentissage par différence temporelle (TD) avec approximation de fonction linéaire : Polyak TD(0) et Nesterov TD(0).
Contrairement aux travaux antérieurs, nos méthodes ne reposent pas sur une conception des méthodes de TD comme des méthodes de descente de gradient. Nous étudions l'interaction entre l'accélération, la stabilité et la convergence des méthodes accélérées proposées en temps continu. Pour établir la convergence du système dynamique sous-jacent, nous analysons les modèles en temps continu des méthodes d'approximation stochastique accélérées proposées en dérivant la loi de conservation dans un système de coordonnées dilaté. Nous montrons que le système dynamique sous-jacent des algorithmes proposés converge à un rythme accéléré. Ce cadre nous fournit également des recommandations pour le choix des paramètres d'amortissement afin d'obtenir ce comportement convergent. Enfin, nous discrétisons ces ODE convergentes en utilisant deux schémas de discrétisation différents, Euler explicite et Euler symplectique, et nous analysons leurs performances sur de petites tâches de prédiction linéaire. / The central idea of this thesis is to understand the notion of acceleration in stochastic approximation algorithms. Specifically, we attempt to answer the question: How does acceleration naturally show up in SA algorithms? We adopt a dynamical systems approach and propose new accelerated methods for temporal difference (TD) learning with linear function approximation: Polyak TD(0) and Nesterov TD(0).
In contrast to earlier works, our methods do not rely on viewing TD methods as gradient descent methods. We study the interplay between acceleration, stability, and convergence of the proposed accelerated methods in continuous time. To establish the convergence of the underlying dynamical system, we analyze continuous-time models of the proposed accelerated stochastic approximation methods by deriving the conservation law in a dilated coordinate system. We show that the underlying dynamical system of our proposed algorithms converges at an accelerated rate. This framework also provides us recommendations for the choice of the damping parameters to obtain this convergent behavior. Finally, we discretize these convergent ODEs using two different discretization schemes, explicit Euler, and symplectic Euler, and analyze their performance on small, linear prediction tasks.
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Co-optimization of design and control of electrified vehicles using coordination schemesFahim, Muhammad Qaisar 09 August 2022 (has links)
No description available.
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Equilibrium Strategies for Time-Inconsistent Stochastic Optimal Control of Asset Allocation / Jämviktsstrategier för tidsinkonsistent stokastisk optimal styrning av tillgångsallokeringDimitry El Baghdady, Johan January 2017 (has links)
We have examinined the problem of constructing efficient strategies for continuous-time dynamic asset allocation. In order to obtain efficient investment strategies; a stochastic optimal control approach was applied to find optimal transaction control. Two mathematical problems are formulized and studied: Model I; a dynamic programming approach that maximizes an isoelastic functional with respect to given underlying portfolio dynamics and Model II; a more sophisticated approach where a time-inconsistent state dependent mean-variance functional is considered. In contrast to the optimal controls for Model I, which are obtained by solving the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) partial differential equation; the efficient strategies for Model II are constructed by attaining subgame perfect Nash equilibrium controls that satisfy the extended HJB equation, introduced by Björk et al. in [1]. Furthermore; comprehensive execution algorithms where designed with help from the generated results and several simulations are performed. The results reveal that optimality is obtained for Model I by holding a fix portfolio balance throughout the whole investment period and Model II suggests a continuous liquidation of the risky holdings as time evolves. A clear advantage of using Model II is concluded as it is far more efficient and actually takes time-inconsistency into consideration. / Vi har undersökt problemet som uppstår vid konstruktion av effektiva strategier för tidskontinuerlig dynamisk tillgångsallokering. Tillvägagångsättet för konstruktionen av strategierna har baserats på stokastisk optimal styrteori där optimal transaktionsstyrning beräknas. Två matematiska problem formulerades och betraktades: Modell I, en metod där dynamisk programmering används för att maximera en isoelastisk funktional med avseende på given underliggande portföljdynamik. Modell II, en mer sofistikerad metod som tar i beaktning en tidsinkonsistent och tillståndsberoende avvägning mellan förväntad avkastning och varians. Till skillnad från de optimala styrvariablerna för Modell I som satisfierar Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellmans (HJB) partiella differentialekvation, konstrueras de effektiva strategierna för Modell II genom att erhålla subgame perfekt Nashjämvikt. Dessa satisfierar den utökade HJB ekvationen som introduceras av Björk et al. i [1]. Vidare har övergripande exekveringsalgoritmer skapats med hjälp av resultaten och ett flertal simuleringar har producerats. Resultaten avslöjar att optimalitet för Modell I erhålls genom att hålla en fix portföljbalans mellan de riskfria och riskfyllda tillgångarna, genom hela investeringsperioden. Medan för Modell II föreslås en kontinuerlig likvidering av de riskfyllda tillgångarna i takt med, men inte proportionerligt mot, tidens gång. Slutsatsen är att det finns en tydlig fördel med användandet av Modell II eftersom att resultaten påvisar en påtagligt högre grad av effektivitet samt att modellen faktiskt tar hänsyn till tidsinkonsistens.
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[en] ENSURING RESERVE DEPLOYMENT IN HYDROTHERMAL POWER SYSTEMS PLANNING / [pt] GARANTINDO A ENTREGABILIDADE DE RESERVAS NO PLANEJAMENTO DE SISTEMAS DE POTÊNCIA HIDROTÉRMICOSARTHUR DE CASTRO BRIGATTO 03 November 2016 (has links)
[pt] Atualmente a metodologia correspondente ao estado da arte utilizada
para o planejamento de médio-/longo-prazo da operação de sistemas elétricos
de potência é a Programação Dual Dinâmica Estocástica (PDDE). No entanto,
a tratabilidade computacional proporcionada por este método ainda
requer simplificaçõeses consideráveis de detalhes de sistemas reais de maneira a
atingir performaces aceitáveis em aplicações práticas. Simplificações feitas no
estágio de planejamento em contraste com a implementação das decisões podem
induzir políticas temporalmente inconsistentes e, consequentemente, um
gap de sub-otimalidade. Inconsisência temporal em planejamento hidrotérmico
pode ser induzida, por exemplo, ao assumir um coeficiente de produtividade
constante para as hidrelétricas, ao agregar os reservatórios, ao negligenciar a segunda
lei de Kirchhoff e neglienciando-se critérios de segurança em modelos de
planejamento. As mesmas restrições são posteriormente consideradas na etapa
de implementação do sistema. Esse fato pode estar envolvido com esvaziamento
não planejado de reservatórios e entregabilidade inadequada de reservas girantes.
Ambos podem levar a altos custos operacionais. Além disso, o sistema pode
ficar exposto a um risco sistêmico de racionamento e em última instâcia, blackouts. O gap de sub-otimalidade pode também levar a distorções em mercados
de energia. Assim, é razoável que as consequências da inconstência temporal
em sistemas hidrotérmicos sejam estudadas. Nesse sentido, este trabalho
propõe uma extensão de trabalhos já realizados relacionados à inconsistência
temporal para medir os efeitos de simplificações de modelagem em modelos
de planejamento resolvidos pela PDDE. A abordagem proposta consiste em
usar um modelo simplificado para o planejamento do sistema, que é feito pela
avaliação da função de recurso, e um modelo detalhado para a sua operação.
Estudos de caso envolvendo simplificações em modelagem de linhas de transmissão e critérios de segurança são realizados. No entanto, o foco deste trabalho
se dará na segunda fonte, já que a mesma apresenta maior complexidade na
caracterização do efeito. No entanto, a incorporação de critérios de segurança
é um grande desafio para operadores de sistemas elétricos, pois o tamanho
do modelo tende a crescer exponencialmente quando critérios de segurança
reforçados são aplicados. Motivado por isso, o principal objetivo deste trabalho
é propor uma nova abordagem ao problema que permite que critérios de
segurança possam ser incorporados em modelos de planejamento e consequentemente
garantir a entregabilidade de reservas em políticas de planejamento.
A formulação do problema é uma extensão multiperiodo e estocástica the modelos
de Otimização Robusta Ajustável que já foram propostos na literatura
para resolver o problema relacionado à dimensionalidade para um período. A
metodologia de solução involve um algoritmo híbrido Robusto-PDDE que por
meio do compartilhamento de estados de contingência ativos entre os períodos
e cenários de afluência é capaz de atingir tratabilidade computacional. Com a
nova abordagem proposta, é possível (i) resolver o problema de agendamento
ótimo das reservas em sistemas hidrotérmicos garantindo a entregabilidade das
reservas em um critério n - K e (ii) calcular o custo e os efeitos negativos de
se negligenciar critérios de segurança no planejamento. / [en] The current state of the art method used for medium/long-term planning studies of hydrothermal power system operation is the Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming (SDDP) algorithm. The computational savings provided by this method notwithstanding, it still relies on major system simplifications to achieve acceptable performances in practical applications. Simplifications in the planning stage in contrast to the actual implementation might induce time inconsistent policies and, consequently, a sub-optimality gap. Time inconsistency in hydrothermal planning might be induced by, for instance, assuming a constant coefficient production for hydro plants, reservoir aggregation, neglecting Kirchhoff s voltage law, and neglecting security criteria in planning models, which are then incorporated in implementating models. Unaccounted for reservoir depletion and inadequate spinning reserve deliverability situations that were observed in the Brazilian power system might be induced by time inconsistency. And this can lead to higher operational costs. Both these consequences are utterly negative since they pose the system to a great systemic risk of energy rationing or ultimately, system blackouts. In addition, the suboptimility gap may also lead to energy markets distortions. Hence, it seems reasonable that further investigations on consequences of time inconsistency in hydrothermal planning should be undertaken. Along these lines, this work proposes an extension to previous work on the subject of time inconsistency to measure the effects of modeling simplifications in the SDDP framework for hydrothermal operation planning. The approach consists of using a simplified model for planning the system, which is done by means of the assessment of the recourse (cost-to-go) function, and a detailed model for its operation (implementation of the policy). Case studies involving simplifications in transmission lines modeling and in security criteria are carried out. Nevertheless, the focus of this work is on the later source as it is more difficult to address due to the complexity involved in the characterization of this effect. However, incorporating security criteria in planning models poses a major challenge to system operators. This is because the size of the model tends to grow exponentially as tighter security criteria are adopted. Motivated by this, the main objective of this work is to propose a new framework that allows security criteria to be incorporated in planning models and consequently ensure reserve deliverability in planning policies. The problem formulation is a multiperiod stochastic extension of Adjustable Robust Optimization (ARO) based models already proposed in literature to successfully address the dimensionality issue regarding the incorporation of security criteria n - K and its variants. The solution methodology involves a hybrid Robust-SDDP algorithm that by means of sharing active contingency states amongst periods and possible inflow scenarios in the SDDP algorithm is capable of achieving computational tractability. Then, with the proposed approach it is possible to (i) address the optimal scheduling of energy and reserve in hydrothermal power systems ensuring reserve deliverability under an n - K security criterion and (ii) assess the cost and side effects of disregarding security criteria in the planning stage.
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