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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
311

TOWARD A THEORY OF MORALITY: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF COGNITIVE MORAL DEVELOPMENT IN MARKET CHANNEL DYADS IN THE CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY USING THE DEFINING ISSUES TEST

Reischl, James Nicholas 01 January 2009 (has links)
This dissertation tackles the ageless human debate of the body versus the soul. Based on Kohlbergian theory, the multidisciplinary literature review advances the proposition that moral development proceeds in waves of referential egoism leading to nonreferential altruism that is couched in power--the apple of the eye. Many inter organizational studies using the Defining Issues Test have compared moral maturity levels coming from various academic backgrounds. Previous studies have purported that education is the chief moderating variable for moral maturity, with little regard for paradigmatic bases of power. Yet, in this study noncoercive power is carefully controlled because of the highly technical procurement process used in construction contracting. Coercive power and position in the food chain become the main moderators, because success is not measured by charm or wisdom or even social relations, but only by the low bid in accordance with the contractual specifications. The results from 93 respondents of the Iowa Architects Institute of America (n = 93) indicated that despite the higher education and aesthetic interests, the sample of architects ranked low on moral maturity level when compared to the average of the DIT data bank as a whole. Postconventional scores were 36.4 versus 39.1, respectively. Few intra organizational studies have been conducted examining moral maturity levels among groups in the same work setting. This research also compared the moral maturity of intra industry groups in marketing dyads consisting of architects, contractors, and suppliers using the Defining Issues Test and ANOVA. Again it was expected that architects with higher education and aesthetic interests would rank highest. So in addition to the architects, the members of the Iowa Associated General Contractors and Iowa Associated Builders and Contractors were solicited. This added 32 contractors (n = 32) and 27 suppliers (n = 27), to the total sample (n = 153). Findings showed significant differences among the groups (F (2, 150) = 3.64, p = .05). Yet post hoc comparisons revealed that there was no significant difference in moral maturity levels between architects and contractors engrossed in the same power paradigm (p = 1.00). However, a significant difference existed between architects and suppliers (p =.024). This implication is consistent with the teleological pattern that is prevalent in research studies of salespeople. In summary, performance-based organizations and theorists of stakeholder theory may expect no less than orthodox and opportunistic choices in the real world of business as long as performance remains the ultimate criterion of success.
312

Effekter av föräldrautbildningen STRATEGI på föräldrars syn på familjens funktion / Effects of the parental training programme STRATEGI on parents view on family function

Nordlander, Monica, Åhlander, Camilla January 2016 (has links)
Studien, en multicenterstudie, som genomfördes vid barnpsykiatriska mottagningar i mellansverige, med kvantitativ ansats och konsekutivt urval ämnade utforska om ett deltagande i föräldrautbildningen STRATEGI för omsorgspersoner till barn med ADHD påverkar synen på familjefunktionen. Den ämnade också undersöka om självskattningsskalan SCORE- 15 som ännu inte validerats för svenska förhållanden kan urskilja en klinisk population i Sverige och valideras med hjälp av instrumentet Familjeklimat. Datainsamling skedde via upprepade mätningar via standardiserade protokoll i samband med föräldrautbildningen STRATEGI. Resultaten visade att deltagande i föräldrautbildningen STRATEGI kan ha effekt på synen på familjefunktionen för de omsorgspersoner som rapporterar högst problemtyngd. Resultaten i studien korrelerar väl med mätningarna från tidigare studier av kliniska populationer av O'Hanrahan (2016). Validiteten hos SCORE-15 tycks vara hög. SCORE-15 tycks fungera för en svensk population och bedöms kunna urskilja en klinisk population. SCORE-15 visar sig vara ett användbart kliniskt instrument. / The study, a multicenter study, conducted at the child psychiatric clinics in central Sweden, with a quantitative approach and consecutively selection aimed to explore whether a participation in the parental training programme STRATEGI for caregivers to children with ADHD affects the perception of family function. It meant also to examine whether self-rating scale SCORE-15 can distinguish a clinical population in Sweden and be validated using the instrument Familjeklimat. Data collection was done through repeated measurements using standardized protocols in connection as the caregivers participated in the programme. The results showed that participation in the parental education programme STRATEGI could have an effect on the perception of family function for the caregivers who reported having the largest impact of problems. The results of the study correlates well with measurements from previous studies of clinical populations (O'Hanrahan (2016). The validity of the SCORE-15 appear to be high. SCORE-15 seems adapted to a Swedish population and is expected to distinguish a clinical population. SCORE-15 is therefore a useful clinical instrument.
313

Diagnostischer Wert von ADC-Parameterkarten in der MR-Diagnostik des Prostatakarzinoms: Einfluss der Wahl verschiedener b-Werte

Thörmer, Gregor 11 December 2012 (has links)
Zielsetzung: Die diffusionsgewichtete Bildgebung ist wesentlicher Bestandteil der Magnetresonanz-tomographie des Prostatakarzinoms (PCa). Aus entsprechenden Rohdaten, aufgenommen bei verschie-denen b-Werten (Diffusionswichtungsfaktoren), kann der Diffusionskoeffizient (apparent diffusion coefficient - ADC) abgeschätzt werden, der ein sensitiver Indikator für maligne Veränderungen der Gewebearchitektur ist. Die absoluten ADC-Werte sind allerdings stark von der Wahl der zugrundeliegenden b-Werte abhängig und darüber hinaus gibt es Hinweise, dass die Wahl der b-Werte einen signifikanten Einfluss auf die visuelle Analyse, insbesondere auf die Abgrenzbarkeit der Läsion von der Umgebung und auf den Kontrast hat. Es wurde daher untersucht, inwieweit die Wahl der b-Werte den diagnostischen Wert des ADC im Hinblick auf die Detektion und Beurteilung des PCa hat. Methodik: 41 konsekutive Patienten mit gesichertem PCa erhielten eine multiparametrische, endorektale MR-Bildgebung bei 3 Tesla. Die ADC-Karten wurden retrospektiv auf Basis vier verschiedener Kombinationen von b-Werten (0-800 s/mm2) berechnet. Drei Untersucher bestimmten die „führende“ Läsion und beurteilten dann den diagnostischen Wert der jeweiligen ADC-Karten (Visual Score - VS) mit sehr gut (2), befriedigend (1) oder schlecht (0). Für die quantitative Auswertung wurden der mittlere ADC für gesundes und für Tumorgewebe bestimmt. Unterschiede in Abhängigkeit von den gewählten b-Werten wurden mittels statistischer Tests (einseitige ANOVA, Faktor Methode, Signifikanzniveau 5 %) ausgewertet. Ergebnisse: 85 % der Tumoren wurden von den Auswertern richtig erkannt. Die Wahl der b-Werte hatte hochgradig signifikanten (P<0,001) Einfluss auf die absoluten ADC-Werte in gesundem und verändertem Gewebe. ADC-Karten auf Basis von b=[50, 800] und [0, 800] wurden am besten (VS=1,6±0,3) und zweitbesten (VS=1,1±0,3; P<0,001) bewertet. Insbesondere für niedrig-gradige Karzinome (Gleason Score ≤ 6, 13/41 Patienten), wurde nur die Kombination [50, 800] besser als befriedigend (VS=1,4±0,3) bewertet. Der mittlere Tumor-ADC zeigte eine moderate aber signifikant negative Korrelation (Spearman ρ: -0,38 bis -0,46; P<0,05) mit dem Gleason Score. Schlussfolgerung: Absolute ADC-Werte sind stark von der Wahl der zugrundeliegenden b-Werte abhängig und eignen sich daher nicht zur allgemeingültigen Charakterisierung von Prostatakarzinomen. Ein minimaler b-Wert > 0 s/mm2 wird für die Berechnung der ADC-Karten im Hinblick auf eine nachweislich verbesserte visuelle Auswertbarkeit empfohlen.
314

Sjuksköterskors följsamhet till Early Warning Score samt faktorer som påverkar denna följsamhet inom akutsjukvård : En integrativ litteraturstudie / Sjuksköterskors efterlevnad av Early Warning Score och faktorer som påverkar denna efterlevnad i akutvården : En integrativ litteraturstudie

Svensson, Sofia January 2022 (has links)
Bakgrund: Inom akutsjukvård är bedömning av patientens vitalparametrar, det vill säga andningsfrekvens, saturation, puls, blodtryck, kroppstemperatur och medvetandegrad, sjuksköterskans ansvar och därmed en viktig arbetsuppgift. Tidig identifiering av försämring i patientens tillstånd, har i tidigare studier visat sig bidra till både minskad morbiditet och mortalitet. Därmed är sjuksköterskors evidensbaserade och säkra bedömningar av största vikt för patientens säkerhet och välmående. Vilket i sin tur bidrar till upprätthållen patientsäkerhet. Syfte: Syftet med studien var att utforska och beskriva sjuksköterskors följsamhet till Early Warning Score (EWS) och de faktorer som påverkar följsamheten inom akutsjukvård. Metod: Studien genomfördes som en integrativ litteraturstudie. Resultatet baseras på 14 vetenskapliga artiklar som analyserats i enlighet med Whittemore och Knafls arbetsprocess. Resultat: Analysen av artiklarna resulterade i tre teman och åtta subteman om följsamheten till Early Warning Score och de faktorer som påverkade följsamheten. Sjuksköterskors följsamhet till Early Warning Score visade sig påverkas av användbarhet, teamarbete och patienten bakom instrumentet. Inom dessa teman presenterades; erfarenhet, medvetenhet, prioritering, kommunikation, bristande läkarrespons, individanpassade parametrar och EWS i förhållande till kliniskt omdöme. Slutsats: Studien visade att det finns flera olika faktorer som påverkade följsamheten till Early Warning Score. Sjuksköterskor använder inte alltid instrumentet trots att det visade sig vara en viktig del i identifiering av försämrade patienter och likaså för patientsäkerheten. Studien gav inga säkra förklaringar till detta men belyste flera faktorer som påverkade följsamheten, vilket innebär att fenomenet är i behov av att ytterligare studeras. / Bakgrund: I akutsjukvården är bedömning av patientens vitala parametrar, såsom andningsfrekvens, mättnad, hjärtfrekvens, blodtryck, kroppstemperatur och medvetandenivå, sjuksköterskans ansvar och därmed en viktig uppgift. Tidig identifiering av försämring av patientens tillstånd har i tidigare studier visat sig bidra till både minskad sjuklighet och mortalitet. Sjuksköterskornas evidensbaserade och tillförlitliga bedömningar är därför av yttersta vikt för patientens säkerhet och välbefinnande. Vilket i sin tur bidrar till en bibehållen patientsäkerhet. Sikta: Denna studie syftar till att utforska och beskriva sjuksköterskors efterlevnad av Early Warning Score (EWS) och de faktorer som påverkar efterlevnaden i akutvården. Metod: Studien genomfördes som en integrativ litteraturstudie. Resultaten baseras på 14 vetenskapliga artiklar analyserade i enlighet med Whittemores och Knafls arbetsprocess. Resultat: Analysen av artiklarna resulterade i tre teman och åtta delteman när det gäller efterlevnaden av poängen för tidig varning och faktorer som påverkade efterlevnaden. Sjuksköterskors bedömning av vitala parametrar visade sig påverkas av eller påverka EWS användbarhet, lagarbete och patienten bakom instrumentet. Bland dessa teman var; erfarenhet, medvetenhet, prioritering, kommunikation, brist på läkarrespons, individualiserade parametrar och EWS i förhållande till klinisk åsikt. Slutsats: Studien visade att det finns flera olika faktorer som påverkat efterlevnaden av Early Warning Score. Sjuksköterskorna använder inte alltid instrumentet, även om det visade sig vara en viktig del i att identifiera patienter med nedsatt sättning och även för patientsäkerheten. Studien gav inga definitiva förklaringar till detta, men lyfte fram flera faktorer som påverkat efterlevnaden, vilket innebär att fenomenet är i behov av ytterligare studier.
315

Zur klinischen Wirksamkeit der südafrikanischen Teufelskrallenwurzel (Harpagophyti radix) bei Patienten mit Cox- und Gonarthrose: Ergebnisse und Bewertung einer klinischen Studie der Phase IV

Wegener, Tankred 22 May 2006 (has links)
Durch eine optimierte Anwendungsbeobachtung (AWB) sollte die Dokumentation der therapeutischen Anwendung eines Phytopharmakons vervollständigt werden. Ausgewählt wurde ein wässriger Extrakt aus der südafrikanischen Teufelskralle im Anwendungsgebiet der Therapie degenerativer Erkrankungen des Bewegungsapparates (Gon- und Coxarthrose). Wie eine Darstellung der Klinik zeigte, lag bis dahin keine Studie für diese Anwendung des Extraktes vor. Die Therapie erfolgte über 12 Wochen, die Wirksamkeit wurde bewertet primär mit dem Western-Ontario-McMaster-Universities-Osteoarthritis-Index (WOMAC) und der VAS-Schmerzskala. Die Ergebnisse dieser AWB belegen erstmalig die Wirksamkeit bei degenerativen rheumatischen Erkrankungen. Mit einer Verbesserung des WOMAC-Scores um 22,9 % im gesamten Kollektiv und um 24,1 % bei Patienten mit stärkeren Beschwerden dürfen die Ergebnisse als klinisch relevant erachtet werden. Besonders stark war die Wirkung im Subscore zur Steifigkeit (Verbesserung um mehr als 30 % im stärker betroffenen Kollektiv und in der Gesamtgruppe um 22,2 %). Durch den verwendeten Erfassungsparameter Arhuser Rückenschmerzindex war ein Vergleich mit den Ergebnissen früherer Studien mit dem gleichen Extrakt möglich. Die Verbesserung in annähernd vergleichbarer Größenordnung zeigte, dass die Ergebnisse der AWB valide sind. Für den WOMAC-Gesamtscore wurden in Studien mit nicht-steroidalen Antirheumatika Verbesserungen um 25 - 40 % berichtet; der Subscore zur Steifigkeit verbesserte sich um 20 - 50 % in den Verum- und bis zu 20 % in den Placebo-Gruppen. Die Wirkstärke der Teufelskralle ist im Vergleich zu den Wirkstärken synthetischer Arzneistoffe daher beachtlich. Die Teufelskralle kann als alleinige medikamentöse Maßnahme eingesetzt werden. Mittels einer verbesserten Qualität in Planung, Durchführung und Auswertung sowie Berichterstattung von Anwendungsbeobachtung kann ein wichtiger Beitrag für den therapeutischen Stellenwert von Phytopharmaka geleistet werden.
316

Analyse de la prise en charge des patients traumatisés sévères dans le contexte français : processus de triage et processus de soin / Analysis of Severe Trauma Patients Management : Triage and Care Process

Hamada, Sophie Rym 20 December 2019 (has links)
La traumatologie est un problème de santé publique au troisième rang des années de vie perdues ajustées sur l’incapacité en France. L’investissement sanitaire et le volume de recherche qu’elle génère sont en deçà de ce que représente son impact sociétal. L’objet de ce travail de recherche était de plonger au cœur du parcours du patient traumatisé sévère pour en cibler trois problématiques clefs et tenter de répondre aux interrogations qu’elles génèrent.Les données utilisées provenaient essentiellement d’un observatoire de traumatologie lourde hospitalier (Traumabase®), régional et national, qui collige un ensemble de variables épidémiologiques, cliniques, paracliniques, et thérapeutiques des patients traumatisés sévères admis en centre de traumatologie.Le premier projet a ciblé l’orientation initiale (triage) des patients traumatisés sévères suite à un accident de la circulation au sein de la région Île de France et son effet sur la mortalité. Les patients initialement mal triés, transférés secondairement dans les centres de traumatologie régionaux, ne présentaient pas un pronostic plus sombre que les patients qui étaient transportés directement. Le système de soin dans son ensemble permettait de leur assurer un devenir équivalent. Une analyse en population réalisée par un chainage probabiliste des données avec les fiches d’accident de l’observatoire national de la sécurité routière a permis d’approcher le taux de sous triage conduisant au décès dans la région (0,15%) et d’objectiver que 60% des décès survenaient avant toute admission hospitalière.Le second projet visait l’optimisation de la jonction entre l’équipe médicalisée préhospitalière et l’équipe intrahospitalière. Il s’est attelé à développer un outil de prédiction de la sévérité des patients hémorragiques pour permettre l’anticipation de l’admission des patients les plus graves. Cet outil, le Red Flag, avait pour cahier des charges d’être simple et pragmatique, et de ne pas nécessiter de dispositif externe pour l’utiliser. Il a identifié cinq caractéristiques (shock index>1, pression artérielle moyenne <70mmHg, hémoglobine capillaire < 13g/dL, bassin instable et intubation), dont la présence de deux ou plus d’entre-elles permettait d’activer l’alerte pour l’hôpital receveur. Cet outil devra être évalué en prospectif pour confirmer ses performances et évaluer son impact sur l’organisation et le devenir des patients.Le troisième projet de recherche ciblait plus spécifiquement une des thérapeutiques de la coagulopathie aigue du traumatisé sévère en choc hémorragique. Il a tenté de quantifier l’impact de l’administration de concentré de fibrinogène à la phase précoce du choc hémorragique traumatique (6 premières heures) sur la mortalité toutes causes confondues des 24 premières heures par une approche d’inférence causale (score de propension et méthode d’estimation double robuste). Il n’a pas été retrouvé d’effet significatif sur la mortalité, un manque de puissance pouvant être responsable de ce résultat (différence de risque observée : -0,031, Intervalle de confiance 95% [-0,084 ; 0,021]).Ainsi l’ensemble de ces 3 projets de recherche ont permis de répondre à des problématiques ciblées du parcours du patient traumatisé sévère, générant par la même de nouvelles perspectives d’analyse pour mieux circonscrire les réponses de terrain. / In France, the third most frequent cause of disability adjusted life years lost is trauma, an observation that makes trauma a public health challenge. However, investment in trauma care and specific research fails to meet this challenge and to acknowledge the associated societal and economic impact.The purpose of this research was to explore the core of the pathway of a major trauma patient and bring to light key issues and question and to find answers. The data used in this research were mainly extracted from a regional and national trauma registry, the Traumabase®. The registry collects epidemiological, clinical, paraclinical and therapeutic variables for patients with severe trauma admitted to participating trauma centres. The first project focused on the effects of triage on patients with severe trauma following a road traffic accident in the Ile de France region. Patients who were initially under triaged and then transferred to regional trauma centres did not have a worse prognosis than patients who were transported directly. The emergency medical system as a whole ensured that they would have an equivalent outcome. A population analysis carried out by a probabilistic data chainage using the accident records of the National Road Safety Observatory made it possible to approach the undertriage rate leading to death in the region (0.15%) and to reveal that 60% of deaths occurred before any hospital admission. The second project developed a pragmatic pre-alert tool based on simple, clinical prehospital criteria to predict acute hemorrhage in trauma patients. This tool is meant to increase the performance of the receiving hospital trauma team of these critically sick patients and activate a specific hemorrhage pathway. The study identified five variables (shock index>1, mean blood pressure <70mmHg, capillary hemoglobin <13g/dL, unstable pelvis and intubation). If two or more variables were present, the tool identified patient with acute hemorrhage and the corresponding pathway should be activated. This tool requires prospective validation and assessment of its impact on care provision and patient outcome.The third research project focused on a therapeutic component of trauma induced coagulopathy. The study attempted to quantify the effect of fibrinogen concentrate administration at the early phase of traumatic hemorrhagic shock (first 6 hours) on 24 hours all-cause mortality using a causal inference approach (propensity score and double robust estimator). The research did not demonstrate any impact on mortality (observed risk difference: -0.031, 95% confidence interval [-0.084; 0.021]);  a lack of power might be responsible for this result.
317

Infant Feeding Practices and Asthma in Children Aged 6 Months to 5 Years Using a Propensity Score Approach

Ogbu, Chukwuemeka E., Fongue, Samuel, Ogbu, Stella C., Kirby, Russell S. 01 December 2021 (has links)
OBJECTIVES: We examined the association between exclusive breastfeeding, early introduction of feeding formula, early weaning, and asthma in children aged six months to five years in a sample of non-institutionalized US children using a propensity score approach. METHODS: Our study used data from the National Survey of Children's Health (2012-2018) of 3,820 children with physician-diagnosed asthma aged 6 months to 5 years. Propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to control selection bias with age, sex, race, birth weight, Federal Poverty Level, parent's education, and parent smoking history used as covariates in PSM. The total number in the matched sample was 6,904 (3,452 non-asthmatics; 3,452 asthmatics). Matched and unmatched samples were analysed using the χ test and multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: Exclusive breastfeeding was protective against asthma in the pre-matching (AOR 0.72; 95% CI: 0.54-0.97; p = 0.03) and post-matching (AOR 0.66; 95% CI: 0.55-0.81; p < 0.001) samples. Formula feeding before 6 months was associated with asthma in unmatched (AOR 1.38; 95% CI: 1.15-1.66; p < 0.001) and matched (AOR 1.31; 95% CI: 1.16-1.47; p < 0.001) sample. Early weaning before 6 months was associated with asthma in unmatched (AOR 1.62; 95% CI: 1.35-1.54; p < 0.001) and matched sample (AOR 1.37; 95% CI: 1.23-1.54; p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: Public health systems should continue to recommend the implementation of the World Health Organization exclusive breastfeeding guideline in developed countries. Asthma interventions in children under two years should continue to emphasize exclusive breastfeeding to reduce the incidence of infant asthma.
318

Tillämpning av Altman Z score på fotbollsallsvenskan utifrån finansiell obestånd : En Kvantitativ studie om hur allsvenska fotbollsklubbar har hanterat utmaningarna från covid-19 utifrån ett finansiellt perspektiv

Ahmed, Sakib, Karlsson, Kasper January 2023 (has links)
Background: Football is one of the biggest sports in the world. Just as the rest of the world has been affected by the pandemic, the Allsvenskan has also been affected. What is analyzed in this study are various financial key figures through the Altman z score which shows whether the clubs can cope with financial insolvency. Purpose: The aim of the study is to analyze how the Allsvenskan football clubs have handled the situation from covid-19. The study will also touch on the club's economic state before and after the pandemic to see if the state has changed since the crisis. Method: This study is based on a quantitative method through a deductive approach where the collected data comes mainly from annual reports from nine (9) Allsvenskan football clubs. The data was collected during several occasions as the study targets from 2017-2022. Conclusion:What the study concluded is that the clubs have not recovered financially from the covid 19 pandemic if they are based on the altman Z’ score. The years 2016-2018 had a higher Z’ score than the years 2019-2022 had in total.-- The spectators or fans increased after the pandemic. There is no statistical connection if a team gets more points that there is more audience.
319

[en] ADVANCEMENTS IN TIME SERIES MODELING: USING MODERN OPTIMIZATION AND ROBUSTNESS TECHNIQUES WITH SCORE-DRIVEN MODELS / [pt] AVANÇOS NA MODELAGEM DE SÉRIES TEMPORAIS: UTILIZANDO OTIMIZAÇÃO MODERNA DE TÉCNICAS DE ROBUSTEZ COM MODELOS SCORE-DRIVEN

MATHEUS ALVES PEREIRA DOS SANTOS 13 June 2024 (has links)
[pt] O estudo de séries temporais desempenha um papel fundamental no processo de tomada de decisão, dando origem a inúmeras metodologias ao longo do tempo. Dentro desse contexto, os modelos score-driven surgem como uma abordagem flexível e interpretável. No entanto, devido ao número significativo de parâmetros envolvidos, o processo de estimação desses modelos tende a ser complexo. Para lidar com essa complexidade, este estudo tem como objetivo avaliar como a adoção de técnicas modernas de otimização impacta o desempenho final do modelo. Além de simplificar o processo de estimação de parâmetros, essa mudança de paradigma permite a integração de novas técnicas, como a otimização robusta, na formulação do modelo, potencialmente aprimorando seu desempenho. O pacote SDUC.jl, que facilita o ajuste e a previsão de modelos impulsionados por escores com base em componentes não observáveis usando técnicas modernas de otimização, representa uma das principais contribuições deste estudo. Ao utilizar séries temporais conhecidas para ilustrar sua funcionalidade e dados mensais de carga elétrica do sistema brasileiro, o estudo foi capaz de demonstrar a flexibilidade do pacote e seu desempenho robusto, mesmo durante períodos de mudança de regime nos dados, graças à aplicação de técnicas de robustez. / [en] The study of time series plays a pivotal role in the decision-making process, giving rise to numerous methodologies over time. Within this context, score-driven models emerge as a flexible and interpretable approach. However, due to the significant number of parameters involved, the estimation process for these models tends to be complex. To address this complexity, this study aims to evaluate how the adoption of modern optimization techniques impacts the final performance of the model. Beyond simplifying the parameter estimation process, this shift in paradigm allows for the integration of new techniques, such as robust optimization, into the model formulation, thereby potentially enhancing its performance. The SDUC.jl package, which facilitates the adjustment and prediction of score-driven models based on unobservable components using modern optimization techniques, represents one of the main contributions of this study. By utilizing well-known time series to illustrate its functionality and monthly electrical load data from the Brazilian system, the study was able to demonstrate the flexibility of the package and its robust performance, even during periods of regime change in the data, thanks to the application of robustness techniques.
320

Development and external validation of an automated computer-aided risk score for predicting sepsis in emergency medical admissions using the patient's first electronically recorded vital signs and blood test results

Faisal, Muhammad, Scally, Andy J., Richardson, D., Beatson, K., Howes, R., Speed, K., Mohammed, Mohammed A. 24 January 2018 (has links)
Yes / Objectives: To develop a logistic regression model to predict the risk of sepsis following emergency medical admission using the patient’s first, routinely collected, electronically recorded vital signs and blood test results and to validate this novel computer-aided risk of sepsis model, using data from another hospital. Design: Cross-sectional model development and external validation study reporting the C-statistic based on a validated optimized algorithm to identify sepsis and severe sepsis (including septic shock) from administrative hospital databases using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Edition, codes. Setting: Two acute hospitals (York Hospital - development data; Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital - external validation data). Patients: Adult emergency medical admissions discharged over a 24-month period with vital signs and blood test results recorded at admission. Interventions: None. Main Results: The prevalence of sepsis and severe sepsis was lower in York Hospital (18.5% = 4,861/2,6247; 5.3% = 1,387/2,6247) than Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital (25.1% = 7,773/30,996; 9.2% = 2,864/30,996). The mortality for sepsis (York Hospital: 14.5% = 704/4,861; Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital: 11.6% = 899/7,773) was lower than the mortality for severe sepsis (York Hospital: 29.0% = 402/1,387; Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital: 21.4% = 612/2,864). The C-statistic for computer-aided risk of sepsis in York Hospital (all sepsis 0.78; sepsis: 0.73; severe sepsis: 0.80) was similar in an external hospital setting (Northern Lincolnshire and Goole Hospital: all sepsis 0.79; sepsis: 0.70; severe sepsis: 0.81). A cutoff value of 0.2 gives reasonable performance. Conclusions: We have developed a novel, externally validated computer-aided risk of sepsis, with reasonably good performance for estimating the risk of sepsis for emergency medical admissions using the patient’s first, electronically recorded, vital signs and blood tests results. Since computer-aided risk of sepsis places no additional data collection burden on clinicians and is automated, it may now be carefully introduced and evaluated in hospitals with sufficient informatics infrastructure. / Health Foundation

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