Les Systèmes d’alerte précoce (SAP) sont des dispositifs d’évaluation de la sécurité alimentaire permettant de guider les décideurs humanitaires et gouvernementaux dans le ciblage de l’aide alimentaire d’urgence, grâce à des analyses quantifiées et cartographiées. Analysé au travers du prisme sociologique, le SAP est lu comme un système expert flou permettant de stabiliser des consensus institutionnels dans des environnements incertains, grâce à son investissement de forme chiffré et cartographié. La thèse est articulée autour de l’hypothèse centrale que le SAP éthiopien participe aux stratégies d’extraversion de l’aide internationale par l’État-Parti, renforçant ses capacités de contrôle et d’encadrement des populations et de l’administration. Cette hypothèse est vérifiée au travers d’analyses de jeux d’acteurs – les experts en charge du ciblage de l’aide, agissant comme des courtiers de développement situés aux interfaces institutionnelles multiples – , au travers des normes professionnelles, pratiques et sociales mobilisées lors des exercices d’évaluation, et des jeux d’échelles passant du micro au macro. Une première partie démontre comment le registre technico-scientifique du SAP découle des représentations techniques et apolitiques des famines et de l’évolution du régime de l’aide alimentaire internationale. L’exploration ethnographique de la pratique des agents révèle que les normes officielles du SAP éthiopien relèvent d’une hybridation entre des normes humanitaires et des normes de la bureaucratie éthiopienne. Les généalogies des normes humanitaires et de la bureaucratie éthiopiennes conduites au travers d’analyses sociologiques, anthropologiques et historiques, mettent en exergue comment le registre technique permet d’agréger ces deux mondes institutionnels, en occultant toute dimension politique. Un retour ethnographique détaillant les jeux de normes montre comment leur articulation par les agents, le long des échelles de la hiérarchie, est présidée par l’empirisme et la négociation, aménageant les marges de manœuvre aux kadre du Parti, pour influer discrètement sur les résultats et le ciblage de l’aide. À l’échelle villageoise, nous verrons comment le ciblage de l’aide renforce l’encadrement et le contrôle des populations par les kadre. Enfin, nous reviendrons sur les enjeux méthodologiques des enquêtes de terrain conduites par un ancien humanitaire. / Early Warning Systems (EWS) are food security assessment devices that quantify the need of food aid for humanitarian and government decision-makers in the targeting of emergency food aid through quantified and mapped analyzes. Analyzed through the sociological prism, the EWS is a blurr « system of expertise » stabilizing institutional consensus in uncertain environments, thanks to its investment of quantified and mapped form. The thesis is based on the central hypothesis that the Ethiopian EWS participates in strategies of extraversion of the international aid by the State Party, reinforcing its capacities of control and supervision of the populations and the administration. This hypothesis is verified through analyzes of experts in charge of targeting aid, acting as development brokers located at multiple institutional interfaces - through their professional, practical and social norms, and following different steps from micro to macro scales of the device. We shall first recall how the technical-scientific register of EWS derives from the technical and apolitical representations of famines and the evolution of the international food aid regime. A first ethnographic exploration of the practice of agents reveals that these norms are a hybridization between humanitarian norms and bureaucratic norms. We will study these norms separately through sociological, anthropological and historical analyzes, highlighting how the technical register makes possible to aggregate these two universes, hidding political dimensions. An ethnographic study detailing the sets of norms will show how their articulation by the agents, along the hierarchical scales, is presided over by empiricism and negotiation, adjusting the margins of maneuver to the kadre of the Party, to discreetly influence the results and the target of aid. At the village level, we will see how the targeting of aid reinforces the supervision and control of the populations by the kadre. Finally, we will return to the methodological stakes of the field investigations conducted by a former humanitarian.

Excessive droughts on the African continent have caused the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute to launch a program of gathering data in hopes of producing models for rainfalls and droughts. A sensor capable of gathering such data has already been chosen, however there remains the problem of conveniently retrieving data from each of the sensors spread over a large area of land. To accomplish this goal, a small, cheap and efficient wireless capable module would need to be used. A possible candidate is the new WiFi-module from Espress if designated ESP8266. It is an extremely cheap and versatile wireless SoC that is able to perform the task of a wireless communications adapter for the sensor unit. The point of this thesis is to investigate the suitability of IEEE 802.11 for the task, and produce a piece of firmware for the ESP8266. The firmware shall enable it to be attached to a sensor and operate as a wireless mesh node in a self-organizing WLAN sensor network, enabling data retrieval via WiFi multi-hop deliveries.

2007年8月美國爆發次貸危機(Subprime Crisis)，如此新型態的金融危機是否可由金融危機預警系統預測？是本文所欲探討的目標。本文採用訊號方法、固定效果下的Panel Logit Model和CART(Classification and Regression Tree)三種計量方法建構危機預警模型。最後利用美國2006年至2008年資料，驗證本文所建構之預警模型是否能夠有效預測次貸危機的發生。 / “Could banking early warning systems help to predict Sub-prime crisis?” That is the main issue that we want to discuss. We combine three kinds of early warning systems models – Signal Approach, fixed effect panel logit model, and CART approach – to create a new banking early warning system(EWS). We will use the US 2006-2008 data to examine whether this new EWS could predict the Sub-prime crisis correctly.

In this thesis we empirically examine whether the Turkish stock market is driven by rational bubbles over the period between March 1990 and February 2012. The bubble periods are estimated using a recently developed right-tailed unit root test, the generalized sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test of Phillips, Shi and Yu (2011a). Applying their bubble detection and location strategies to weekly price dividend ratio series, we find strong evidence for the existence of rational bubbles in the Turkish stock market benchmark indices as well as sector indices. Our located bubble periods may give early warning signals of the subsequent Turkish financial crisis.

Zusammenschlüsse über Firmengrenzen hinweg sind mit Risiken verbunden, besonders bei Einbindung von Mitarbeitern. Ein neu entwickeltes Frühwarnsystem ermöglicht ein rechtzeitiges Eingreifen in die Kooperationsprozesse, bevor eine erfolgsmindernde Wirkung einsetzen könnte. Es basiert auf Forschungsergebnissen zu Führung und Mitarbeitermotivation in Projektgruppen und orientiert sich an den Erfahrungen von Managern bei der Gestaltung interorganisationaler Zusammenarbeit. Die informationsund kommunikationstechnische Umsetzung dient dem ökonomischen orts- und zeitflexiblen Einsatz sowie einer schnellen Rückmeldung. Inzwischen wurde das Frühwarnsystem in verschiedenen Kooperationsprojekten eingesetzt und von den Beteiligten positiv angenommen.

金融機構預警制度在性質上兼具金融管理及經營評鑑之雙重功能，且對於金融危機具有預防及警戒作用之制度，其意義係依據有關之金融法規與金融業務之經營原則，選定若干變數而訂定一套預警函數、指標、臨界值或基準值、判別模型等，將能夠數據化之部份，利用電腦處理資料並進行統計分析與審察，對於未符合規定、逾越警戒範圍之異常數或脫軌狀況，經過測試與核算後，發出預警信號，以促使主管機關或金融機構（或稱銀行）本身提早注意，並加以防範、及時糾正與改善，以促進其健全經營之制度。 近幾年來，在金融國際化與自由化影響下，金融機構業務已日趨複雜，金融監理機關所擔負的責任也越加沈重，為解決此一困境，如何善用場外監控工具，以彌補實地檢查之不足，應是強化當前金融監理制度的有效方案。我們都知道金融監理機關越來越重視場外監控工作，其中最廣為人知且有效發揮其功能的就是「金融預警系統」，它能評估金融機構績效、篩選問題金融機構及顯示有關警訊等功能，如今已成金融監理機關重要輔助工具之一。 關鍵詞：金融機構預警制度、金融機構、金融監理 / Financial early warning system is a line both in the nature of financial management and operational evaluation of the dual function. To the financial crisis, With the role of prevention and warning system. The significance of means in accordance with relevant laws and regulations of the financial business and financial management principles. Certain number of selected variable set of a number of warning function, indication), cutoff or decimal value, discriminant model. According to the number of data, after testing with the accounting, it cause alarm or signal, so that the issue of the fail to meet the requirement, beyond the scope of the warning or to derail the number of abnormal conditions. To encourage the competent authorities or financial institutions (or banks) early attention to itself. By prevent and promptly correct and improve, to promote the sound management of the system. In recent years, financial institutions have become increasingly complex business and responsible for financial supervision authorities increasingly heavy responsibility, under the influence of the financial internationalization and liberalization. To solve this dilemma, how to make the best use of off-site monitoring tool, make up for lack of spot checks. It should be an effective program to strengthen the current financial supervision system. We all know that more and more attention to the financial supervisory authorities to the work of off-site monitoring. One of the most well-known and effective functioning is the “financial early warning system”. It could assess the performance of financial institutions, financial institutions and the issue of screening show that the functions of the police. For the financial supervision authorities, one of the important auxiliary tool, today. Keywords: financial early warning system, financial institutions, financial supervision

自1980年代各國推行金融自由化後，為穩定金融秩序，建立風險導向金融監理制度更顯重要。一般來說，金融監理工具可分為實地檢查及場外監控兩種，過去以行業別進行之監理，在金融控股公司的發展下，亦發展出對應之監控機制，然而僅止於實地檢查機制，以金融集團為預警對象之場外監控預警系統仍有待建立。 本研究遂在探討如何建立適合我國之以金融集團為預警對象的場外監控預警系統，挑選2003、2004年兩年之本國銀行、票券、證券、壽險、產險公司財務業務比率為樣本，以區別分析法建立預警模型，再以各金融控股公司之子產業公司結果建立各年度金融控股公司之預警模型。 本研究僅嘗試以財務比率建立量化場外監控預警模型，研究結果僅供學術上研究參考，並非運用於真實狀況之評斷，因此，依研究結果提出之結論及建議，僅供參考。此外，(1)模型並未加入質化指標，(2)資料有限的情況下，亦無做樣本外測試，(3)無實際破產金融機構資料，僅能以模擬方法分類，皆是本研究不足之處，仍須修正及改進。

Abstract Emergency medical services (EMS) are designed to provide prompt response, on-scene treatment and transport for definitive care in patients with acute illness or injury. In recent years, the growing number of missions for non-urgent matters has challenged emergency care to design risk assessment protocols and tools to support decision-making and resource management at both dispatch and on-scene. The present study was designed to examine the efficacy of a criteria based dispatch protocol and National Early Warning Score (NEWS) in the Finnish EMS system. In addition, the aim of the research was to obtain data on patient allocation and mortality in the Northern Finnish population. The study data included 13,354 EMS missions from a six-month cohort (1.1.2014 - 30.6.2014) of prehospital emergency patients in two hospital districts – Kainuu and Länsi-Pohja – in Northern Finland, using a retrospective, observational design. Prehospital data including patient clinical physiological variables were combined with the national Finnish registries (Care Registry for Health Care, Intensive Care Consortium Database and Cause of Death Registry) in order to examine risk assessment in EMS and prehospital patient outcomes. Based on the result, the risk assessment at the dispatch was correct in 67.5% of the cases and four out of ten EMS missions did not lead to transportation by an ambulance. The use of the Finnish dispatch protocol resulted in an overall rate of 23% of over-triage and a 9% rate of under-triage. The highest NEWS category showed a good sensitivity for 1-day mortality but failed to adequately discriminate patients in need of intensive care or who died within 30-days in a large, unselected, typical EMS population. In conclusion, the criteria based dispatch protocol resulted in over-triage of a quarter of missions and in a significant rate of EMS missions without ambulance transportation. In addition, the predictive value of prehospital NEWS regarding the patient´s risk of death and need for intensive care was low. / Tiivistelmä Ensihoitopalvelu on suunniteltu tarjoamaan nopeaa vastetta, paikalla tapahtuvaa hoitoa ja kuljetusta lopulliseen hoitopaikkaan potilaille, joilla on akuutti sairaus tai vamma. Viime vuosien lisääntyneet yhteydenotot ei-kiireellisissä asioissa on johtanut riskinarviotyökalujen kehittämiseen tukemaan päätöksentekoa ja resurssienhallintaa hätäpuhelun aikana ja tapahtumapaikalla. Tässä tutkimuksessa tarkasteltiin kriteeripohjaista hätäpuhelun käsittelyä sekä varhaisen varoituspistejärjestelmän (NEWS) tehokkuutta suomalaisessa ensihoitojärjestelmässä. Lisäksi tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli saada tietoa ensihoitopotilaiden hoitotuloksista ja kuolleisuudesta Pohjois-Suomessa. Tutkimukseen sisältyi 13 354 ensihoitotehtävää kuuden kuukauden kohortista (1.1.2014 – 30.6.2014) kahden sairaanhoitopiirin alueelta – Kainuu ja Länsi-Pohja – Pohjois-Suomessa käyttämällä retrospektiivistä havainnoivaa tutkimusmenetelmää. Ensihoidon aikana kerätty tieto, mukaan lukien potilaan kliiniset fysiologiset arvot, yhdistettiin kansallisiin rekistereihin (hoitoilmoitusrekisteri, tehohoitokonsortion laatutietokanta sekä kuolinsyyrekisteri) jotta ensihoitopotilaiden riskinarviota ja hoitotuloksia voitiin tutkia. Tutkimustulosten mukaan 67.5 prosentissa tapauksista riskinarvio hätäkeskuksessa oli oikea ja neljä kymmenestä ensihoitotehtävästä ei johtanut kuljetukseen ambulanssilla. Suomalaisen hälytysprotokollan käyttö johti yliarviointiin 23 prosentissa tapauksista ja aliarviointiin 9 prosentissa tapauksista. Korkeariskin NEWS-luokan herkkyys 1-päivän kuolleisuudelle oli hyvä, mutta se ei kyennyt erottelemaan riittävän hyvin potilaita, jotka tarvitsivat tehohoitoa tai kuolivat 30 päivän sisällä suuressa ei-valikoidussa tyypillisessä ensihoitopotilasväestössä. Yhteenvetona todettiin, että kriteeripohjaisen riskinarvion käyttö johti yliarvioon neljänneksestä tapauksista sekä huomattavaan ensihoitotehtävämäärään ilman ambulanssikuljetusta. Lisäksi ensihoidon aikana käytetyn varhaisen varoituspistejärjestelmän ennusteellinen arvo potilaan kuolemanriskin ja tehohoidon tarpeeseen oli matala.

Submitted by Thiago Lombardi Terra (thiagolombarditerra@gmail.com) on 2014-08-15T01:46:43Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO_INDICADORES_DE_VULNERABILIDADE_APLICADOS_AO_BRASIL_UMA_ABORDAGEM_EMPIRICA.pdf: 1032629 bytes, checksum: b0fb2ce1f3e5486520e29b253189bc38 (MD5) / Rejected by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br), reason: Thiago, bom dia. Os agradecimentos deve estar no formato "justificado" no mesmo formato do seu resumo. Por gentileza fazer os ajustes listados acima. Aguardo Joana Martorini on 2014-08-15T12:16:47Z (GMT) / Submitted by Thiago Lombardi Terra (thiagolombarditerra@gmail.com) on 2014-08-15T13:35:18Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO_INDICADORES_DE_VULNERABILIDADE_APLICADOS_AO_BRASIL_UMA_ABORDAGEM_EMPIRICA.pdf: 1032701 bytes, checksum: c8f544861f8509c50b19ab2bd37c61fa (MD5) / Rejected by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br), reason: Aguardo os ajustes nos agradecimentos. on 2014-08-15T13:39:04Z (GMT) / Submitted by Thiago Lombardi Terra (thiagolombarditerra@gmail.com) on 2014-08-15T13:44:43Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO_INDICADORES_DE_VULNERABILIDADE_APLICADOS_AO_BRASIL_UMA_ABORDAGEM_EMPIRICA.pdf: 1032816 bytes, checksum: 2eae63d37c58ea9666b2ad8013879033 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2014-08-15T13:46:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO_INDICADORES_DE_VULNERABILIDADE_APLICADOS_AO_BRASIL_UMA_ABORDAGEM_EMPIRICA.pdf: 1032816 bytes, checksum: 2eae63d37c58ea9666b2ad8013879033 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-15T13:49:38Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO_INDICADORES_DE_VULNERABILIDADE_APLICADOS_AO_BRASIL_UMA_ABORDAGEM_EMPIRICA.pdf: 1032816 bytes, checksum: 2eae63d37c58ea9666b2ad8013879033 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-08-05 / Along the economic history, financial instabilities have instigated the interests of the researchers that aimed to comprehend the reasons that an economy became vulnerable in certain situations. Others researchers sought to unravel the reasons that have caused the financial instability and, moreover, they sought to relate the variables that had greater exploratory power in periods of instability. This dissertation focuses on early warning indicators’ research applied in the Brazilian economy, in order to estimate which are the most adherent indicators in explaining the movements of the economy. To achieve this, this work is divided as follows: The first chapter is an introduction of this work. In the second chapter, we will focus on theoretical frameworks of authors who studied the reasons for financial instabilities. This chapter also included a review of early warning indicators and exchange market pressure applied to the Brazilian economy. After, inside the third chapter, is presented the econometric analysis and it is highlighted the criteria used to choose the indicators. Besides this selection, impacts are estimated for models of early warning indicators inside the Brazilian economy. Still in this chapter, the exchange market pressure model was estimated for the Brazilian economy. Although the models of early warning indicators are not as adherent for the Brazilian reality, their statistical relevance is important for the monitoring the trends of the economy. / Ao longo da história econômica, as instabilidades financeiras sempre despertaram interesses dos pesquisadores, que visavam entender os motivos pelos quais uma economia se tornava vulnerável em determinadas situações. Outros estudiosos procuravam desvendar as razões que levavam às instabilidades e, além do mais, procuravam relacionar as variáveis que tinham maior poder de explicação nos períodos de instabilidade. O presente trabalho focará nas pesquisas dos early warning indicators aplicados à economia brasileira, com o intuito de estimar quais são os indicadores mais aderentes na explicação dos movimentos da economia. Para tal, o trabalho está dividido da seguinte maneira: No primeiro capítulo, será abordada uma introdução do trabalho. Já no segundo capítulo, serão abordados os referenciais teóricos de autores que estudaram os motivos das instabilidades financeiras. Também consta a revisão dos estudos dos early warning indicators e do exchange market pressure aplicado à economia brasileira. Posteriormente, no terceiro capítulo, é feita uma análise econométrica, com os critérios de seleção dos indicadores. Além da justificativa das escolhas dos indicadores, serão estimados modelos dos impactos dos early warning indicators na economia brasileira. Após isto, também foi calculado o exchange market pressure para a economia brasileira. Por fim, concluí-se que, apesar dos modelos de early warning indicators não serem tão aderentes à realidade brasileira, a sua determinação estatística é de grande importância para o acompanhamento das tendências na economia.

Le siècle actuel est un siècle axé sur la protection des êtres humains contre les périls imminents qui menacent leur existence et que sont, pour n’en citer que quelques uns, la pauvreté, la maladie et la faim. Aussi, face à l’explosion des conflits internes, les débats sur la sécurité ont beaucoup évolué ces dernières années et ont conduit à la reconnaissance et à l’affirmation de la sécurité humaine en droit international. Cette situation aura une certaine incidence sur le système international et les débats sur la prévention des conflits du début du millénaire. Organisation politique et culturelle, la Francophonie intègre cette nouvelle conception de la sécurité dans ses actions de prévention structurelle des conflits dont le but est d’agir sur les causes profondes des conflits en travaillant principalement à l’édification d’un État de droit au service des populations civiles. L’espace francophone africain est particulièrement concerné par cette conflictualité politique extrêmement violente, ce qui justifie la légitimité de l’Organisation internationale de la Francophonie dans ce domaine. Pour autant, peut-elle être un acteur novateur de la prévention devant la multitude d’acteurs qui multiplient les interventions sur le continent et disposent de plus de moyens d’actions ? A-t-elle la capacité de rassembler l’ensemble de ses États membres sur des sujets d’intérêt commun et particulièrement, sur la prévention ? Ses programmes sont-ils un simple accompagnement des programmes internationaux, ou un complément utile et pertinent ? Autant de questions auxquelles nous tenterons d’apporter des réponses tout au long de cette recherche. / The current century is a century of protecting human beings against the imminent perils threatening their existence, and to mention but a few, proverty, disease and hunger. Also, faced with the explosion of internal conflicts, debates on security have evolved considerably these last years leading to the recognition and affirmation of human security in international law. This situation will have some impact on the international system and debates on conflict prevention at the turn of the millenium. As a political and cultural organization, La Francophonie integrates this new conception of security into its structural conflict prevention actions, the purpose of which is to act on the root causes of conflict by working primarily to build the rule of law in the service of civilian populations. The African Francophone area is particularly concerned by this extremely violent political conflict, which justifies the legitimacy of the International Organization of La Francophonie in this area. However, can it be an innovative actor of prevention in front of the multitude of actors who multiply the interventions on the continent and have more means of actions ? Does it have the capacity to bring together all of its Member States on topics of common interest and particularly on prevention? Are it's programs a simple accompaniment of international programs, or a useful and relevant complement? So many questions that we will try to provide answers throughout this research.