Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Since independence in the early 1950's, Africa's overall economic performance compared very unfavourably with those of other regions of the developing world mainly because it attained political independence as a fragmented continent. From this time, the vision of African leaders has been that of regional integration and the creation of the African common market. The vision of a common market which unites Africa's mostly small and fragmented economies would lead to economies of scale, thereby making African countries more competitive. That vision however, has been clouded by the devastation of war, both civil and territorial and corruption which drains the state. Therefore, the importance of regional economic integration is pertinent and more so, the role of Regional Economic Communities as integrative institutions. The African Union, the main institution for political, economic and social integration established the African Economic Community whose main role is to facilitate the regional economic integration process in Africa. Africa's RECs have been designated by the Abuja Treaty as the building blocks for integration and the eventual creation of an African Economic Community. The Abuja Treaty and the Constitutive Act of the African Union provides for the coordination and harmonization of the policies of the Regional Economic Communities. One of the main challenges confronting Africa in its quest for full integration is the rationalisation of regional economic communities. The RECs with their treaties, protocols and agendas are logical institutions to jumpstart Africa's integration. The African Union recognises eight Regional Economic Communities, but the African continent has fourteen inter-governmental organizations (IGOs), all of which are working on regional integration issues. The RECs have had some successes but have not met their objectives of greater production. The RECs need to be revived and the first thing would be to rationalise their structure and their interactions with national governments. Rationalisation has benefits and costs and rationalisation efforts should focus on efficiency and effectiveness. Ultimately, rationalisation would allow Africa to attain the full benefits of integration, particularly growth for trade within and outside Africa. Regional Economic Communities are viewed as pillars of continental integration by the African Union. The strategy of economic emancipation must denote economic development for all African people including grass roots level and there is no doubt that significant challenges exist and must be addressed. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Sedert die onafhanlikheid in die vroeë 1950's het die oorgrote ekonomiese groei van Afrika goed vergelyk met die ander onwikkelende streke in die wêreld grotendeels as gevolg van die gefragmenteerde onafhanklikheidswording in Afika as geheel. Vir die eerste keer was die visie van Afrika leiers dit eens dat Afrika streke as een moet integreer asook die daarstelling van een gemeenskaplike mark. Hierdie visie is egter vertroebel deur die verwoesting van oorloë, beide siviel en territoriaal, asook korrupsie, wat 'n staat dreineer. Daarom is die belangrikheid van streeks ekonomiese integrasie steeds belangrik, en nog meer so, die rol van Streeks Ekonomiese Gemeenskappe (REC's) as integrerende instelling. Die Afrika Unie, die hoof instelling vir politieke, ekonomiese en sosiale integrasie het die Afrika Ekonomiese Gemeenskap, wie se hoof taak dit is om die streeks ekonomiese integrasie te fasiliteer, gestig. Afrika se Streeks Ekonomiese Gemeenskappe is aangewys deur die Abuja Verdrag, om as die bouers van integrasie op te tree, met die uiteindelike daarstelling van 'n Afrika Ekonomiese Gemeenskap. Die Abuja Verdrag en die Konstutiewe Wet van die Afrika Unie maak voorsiening vir die koordinasie in ooreenstemming met die beleidsrigting van die Streeks Ekonomiese Gemeenskappe. Een van die hoof uitdagings wat Afrika in die gesig staar, met die soektog na volle integrasie, is die rasionalisasie van streeks ekonomiese gemeenskappe. Die Streeks Ekonomiese Gemeenskappe met hulle verdrae, protokol en agendas is die logiese instelling om die integrasie van Afrika 'n hupstoot te gee. Die Afrika Unie erken agt Streeks Ekonomiese Gemeenskappe maar die Afrika kontinent het veertien inter-regerings organisasies (IGO's) wat almal werk aan streeks integrasie kwessies. Die Streeks Ekonomiese Gemeenskappe het 'n sekere mate van sukses behaal, maar het nog nie hulle geteikende groter produksie bereik nie. Die Streeks Ekonomiese Gemeenskappe moet opnuut herleef word en die eerste stap sou wees om te rasionaliseer oor hulle struktuur en die interaksie met nasionale regerings. Rasionalisering het voordele en kostes en pogings behoort te fokus op doeltreffendheid en effektiwiteit. Die uiteinde van rasionalisering sal Afrika die volle voordele van integrasie, veral t.o.v handelsgroei binne en buite Afrika, ervaar. Streeks Ekonomiese Gemeenskappe word beskou, deur die Afrika Unie, as die pilare van kontinentale intergrasie. Die strategie van ekonomiese emansipasie moet 'n aanduiding wees vir ekonomiese ontwikkeling vir al die mense van Afrika, ook op grondvlak, en daar is geen twyfel dat beduidende uitdagings bestaan en dat dit moet aangespreek word.

M.A. / The main purpose and objective of this study was to evaluate and determine the impact of regionalisation in Southern Africa on South Africa's developmental goals. With regionalisation coming to the fore as a contemporary reality of the international political economy and with the importance placed on the Reconstruction and Development Plan by the South African Government, the opportinity presented itself where the dynamic impact of regionalisation could be determined and evaluated in a meaningful and relevant manner. The major research concerning regionalisation in Southern Africa focuses on either the economic viability of integration in the Southern African region, or the form of integration which should be pursued. No single study has tried to determine the possible total impact of the process of regionalisation on a specific country. This study breaches this intellectual and academic impasse by doing a multi-leveled analysis of the impact of regionalisation on South Africa's developmental goals. The motivation for this is to lead to more specific research concerning all aspects involved for all countries concerned. The emphasis falls on the holistic nature of this topic - where spesific focus is placed on the complexity and diversity of the roleplayers involved as well as the determinants which influence them. The specific methodology used was to incorporate varied forms of data-gathering, ranging from interviews with major roleplayers to literature studies. The important fact to emphasize is that regionalisation itself must be seen as a complex structure, evolving to the needs and circumstances of the countries involved. This study shows emphatically that the orthodox theory of regionalisation can not be used in the context of developing countries. This theory is based on the experiences of the European industrialised countries. Their methods of analysis is inappropriate in developing countries. It is showed that project- and functional co-operation would suit the requirements and needs of the Southern African region far better in delivering the benefits accrued through regionalisation. Using this as premiss and focussing on the develomental goals of South Africa - the probable impact of regionalisation was determined and evaluated. The Reconstruction and Development Plan and the White Paper on the Reconstruction and Development Plan was used to identify South Africa's developmental goals. Intense research was done to estimate and determine the probable impact of regionalisation, as well as the policy issues it entails, on these goals. An effort was made to integrate each aspect and sector with other sectors and to highlight the complex nature of these interrelated issues. Only broad discussion and recommendations could be drawn. But these are sufficient to lead to futher studies on each specific aspect as well as giving a broad perspective on how South Africa's development goals will be influenced by the process of regionalisation. From this study the conclusion can be drawn that there will be costs involved for South Africa's participation in regional integration. But the benefits derived from project co-operation could make it worthwhile for South Africa to implement positive policy decisions towards further regionalisation. It is important to notice the intense complexity of each sector and the influence a change in one sector will have on all others. Careful consideration should be given before any action is taken. This serves as justification for the study on the grounds that more studies of this nature is necessary for regionalisation to expand in the region, and for Southern Africa to develop as a region. The other member-countries should conduct studies of a similar nature - and through this the most appropriate policy decisions could be taken to improve the well-being of all the people in this region.

M.Com. (Economics) / The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of economic integration on trade growth in the East African Community (EAC). The EAC created in June 2001, is the regional umbrella organisation overseeing a pan-nation, an inter-governmental trade bloc for the Republics of Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi. The objectives of the organisation are to create an environment where free movement of people, goods and labour can occur, spurring economic growth and well-being of the region’s citizens. The concept of economic integration emerged post the Second World War (WWII), as an avenue for creating a protected large free-trade area in which gradually capital movements could be liberalised. It has been adopted in different regions with varying degrees of success. It is in this context that the EAC was examined. The study uses two models to analyse the impact of economic integration on trade growth; the institutional integration index and the augmented gravity model. The first model is important in the analysis of economic integration in that it provides evidence of the impact that deeper and wider integration has on trade growth. The second model, the augmented gravity model is an “augmentation” of the traditional gravity model with additional variables that cater for the effects of the second, third and fourth stages of integration. The study applies panel data analysis on a 10 year data set and empirically assesses the impact of economic integration on trade growth. Based on the results of the two models, it is found that economic integration does lead to trade growth, however because the EAC has only attained the first stage of integration i.e. Customs union and is currently pursuing the second stage i.e. Common markets, factors that come into play in the latter stages of integration i.e. monetary union and political federation, have no significant impact on trade.

L’ouverture de l’économie colombienne, décidée en 1990, fut présentée comme un promoteur de croissance et développement sur la base des exportations (et des Investissements Directs Etrangers). Cette thèse soutient que l’ouverture n’a pas été décidée afin de favoriser la croissance et le développement et que ces deux phénomènes n’ont pas été à la hauteur de ce qui était anticipé. Ce résultat est fondé sur une analyse en termes d’Economie Politique Internationale : les relations de pouvoir peuvent être utiles pour répondre à des questions d’ordre économique. Le premier chapitre montre que les caractéristiques structurelles de l’économie colombienne rendaient son ouverture impropre à générer croissance et développement sur la base des exportations. Cette proposition s’appuie sur l’analyse de la compétitivité sectorielle et des carences institutionnelles de l’économie colombienne, ainsi que sur l’accroissement potentiel des inégalités spatiales de développement suite à l’ouverture. Le deuxième chapitre s’attache alors à mettre en évidence que l’ouverture répond à des objectifs propres aux Etats-Unis. Ces objectifs sont à dominante économique (typiquement la création des débouchés extérieurs et l’accès à des matières premières) ou politique (lutte contre les guérillas d’inspiration communiste dans le cadre de la politique étrangère américaine). Le deuxième chapitre expose une série des moyens à la disposition des Etats-Unis afin d’obtenir l’ouverture du gouvernement colombien de l’époque. Ces moyens vont de la coercition (par exemple la menace de sanction) à la légitimation (favoriser l’élection d’un gouvernement pro-ouverture). Le troisième chapitre montre que l’ouverture n’a pas instauré un régime de croissance fondé sur les exportations. Au contraire, elle a instauré un régime instable fondé sur une dynamique spéculative sur les actifs immobiliers à partir des flux de capitaux étrangers venant nourrir l’achat de ces actifs à crédit. Lorsque ces capitaux finissent tôt ou tard par manquer, de tels achats sont pénalisés et viennent interrompre la dynamique. Celle-ci ne peut plus tirer la croissance via des effets d’entrainement du secteur de la construction sur le reste de l’économie. Mais pris au piège de la relation de pouvoir exercée par les Etats-Unis, le gouvernement colombien n’a pas cherché à stabiliser la conjoncture. Il a dû privilégier les dépenses en équipement militaire américain pour lutter contre les guérillas colombiennes. L’intensification subséquente du conflit armé a accentué la violence au sein du territoire. Il en résulta la destruction d’infrastructures, ainsi qu’une migration de travailleurs qualifiés. La récession en a été d’autant plus accentuée. Ainsi l’ouverture débouche-t-elle sur la pire crise économique du XXème siècle en Colombie, avec une récession de -5% en 1999. Le quatrième chapitre enquête sur les changements des structures de production et d’échange suite à l’ouverture, pour ainsi montrer que ces changements n’ont que peu favorisé le développement. La Colombie tend à négliger sa spécialisation internationale historique dans le café et la plupart des cultures transitoires (blé, riz, orge, sorgo, coton, etc.) pour privilégier d’autres cultures dont les effets positifs sur le développement sont moindres. Bien que les hydrocarbures et d’autres matières brutes bénéficient d’un certain potentiel d’exportation, le développement des territoires où l’extraction a lieu reste faible. Se pose en outre un problème de soutenabilité de l’extraction. Enfin, si l’industrie manufacturière a pu croitre au rythme du régime de croissance, elle le doit à la protection dont elle bénéficie encore dans le cadre du traitement différentiel des pays en développement à l’Organisation Mondiale du Commerce et moins aux opportunités d’exportation données par l’ouverture. Le jour où ce traitement sera diminué voire supprimé, toute une partie de l’économie colombienne est menacée. / The opening of the Colombian economy, decided in 1990, was supposed to promote a new model of growth and development based on exports (and Foreign Direct Investment). This dissertation argues that the opening was not made in order to promote growth and development, and that these two phenomena did not live up to what was expected. This result is based on an International Political Economy approach: taking into account power relationships may give a better explanation of economic phenomena. The first chapter shows that the structural characteristics of the Colombian economy made its opening unable to generate growth and development. This assertion is based on the analysis of the lack of competitiveness and of the institutional flaws of the Colombian economy, as well as on the potential increase in the spatial inequalities of development resulting from the opening. The second chapter thus highlights that the opening aimed at achieving some objectives peculiar to the United States. These objectives are made of economic considerations (typically the access to foreign markets and to raw materials) as well as political ones (dealing with the threats caused by Marxist guerrilla groups within the framework of the American foreign policy). This second chapter explains a series of means at the disposal of the United States to obtain the opening. These means go from coercion (such as sanction threats) to legitimation (to give rise to a Colombian pro-opening government). The third chapter shows that the opening did not lead to an export-led growth. On the contrary, it led to an unstable growth regime. The latter is based on the foreign capital flows. The latter feed the purchase of real estate assets by credit. The housing sector is thus stimulated, which in turn stimulates other economic activities, within the framework of spill-over effects. However, when foreign capital flows lack, real-estate asset purchases are penalized, thus preventing the expansion of the housing sector and eventually of aggregate production itself (spill-over effects no longer work). However, given the power relationship exercised by the United States, the Colombian government had to purchase American military equipment massively, in order to fight against the Colombian guerrillas. By doing so, the economic policy could not stabilize the economy at that time. Besides, the subsequent intensification of the conflict increased the violence within the Colombian territory, thus leading to the migration of skilled workers and to the destruction of infrastructures. The recession had thus been exacerbated. This scenario occurred a few years after 1990, resulting in the worst economic crisis of the 20th century in Colombia with a -5 % recession in 1999. The fourth chapter questions the changes followed by the production and exchange structures because of the opening, to show that these changes did not really contribute to development. Colombia tends to neglect its historic international specialization in coffee and other cultures like wheat, rice, barley, sorghum or cotton, to privilege other cultures whose positive effects on development are lower. As regards the industries of extraction of raw materials (in particular hydrocarbons), they are oriented toward exportation but they promote few development. In addition, the Colombian productive system may lack of this type of input in the future. Finally, if the manufacturing industry was able to increase at the rate of the growth regime, it owes it to the protection still remaining with the differential treatment for developing countries in the World Trade Organization, and less to the export opportunities given by the opening. When this treatment will be eliminated or at least decreased, a whole part of the Colombian economy will be threatened.

Através de dois artigos -- um de revisão bibliográfica e um empírico --, este trabalho analisa a opinião pública mexicana sobre os efeitos do NAFTA -- Tratado Norte-Americano de Livre Comércio -- em 2010, após 16 anos de sua entrada em vigor. Explora-se o caso mexicano com o objetivo de se alcançar uma compreensão mais atualizada sobre como as populações latino-americanas respondem aos efeitos de uma das facetas da reestruturação neoliberal -- os acordos regionais de comércio --, superado o traumático impacto inicial sobre a estrutura de produção e de consumo dos países. Tendo em vista que o tema da opinião pública ainda é alvo de críticas e centro de um caloroso debate dentro das comunidades acadêmicas e das esferas de poder político, e que sua utilização, tanto para fins de pesquisa acadêmica quanto para justificação de políticas públicas, ainda é questionada, o primeiro artigo se apoia em prática e evidências científicas para demonstrar que a opinião pública é um fenômeno estável, mensurável e, em última instância, previsível. Estabelece-se neste primeiro artigo uma revisão bibliográfica e uma agenda para a análise da relação entre opinião pública e política externa. Justificada a utilização da opinião pública como evidência científica concreta e confiável, parte-se no segundo artigo, através de uma sondagem de opinião pública realizada em 2010, à análise dos níveis de avaliação dos efeitos do NAFTA e as diferenças nestes níveis entre os distintos estratos sociais mexicanos em um estudo transversal. Busca-se através desta abordagem uma maior elucidação e esclarecimento sobre os efeitos econômicos e, principalmente, sociais do NAFTA na população mexicana, visto que desde sua entrada em vigor há bastante divergência sobre os mesmos. Primeiramente, abordam-se os pressupostos teóricos para a compreensão do significado histórico, econômico e social do NAFTA, para então se analisar os dados e se realizar o estudo transversal de associação entre a avaliação do público dos efeitos do acordo e algumas variáveis demográficas -- sexo, idade, escolaridade e região -- e partidárias -- lealdade partidária. Com base nesta análise, concluir-se-á que o trauma econômico inicial com a aceleração de tendências provocada pelo NAFTA foi, em grande parte, superado: 62,8% dos mexicanos acreditam que o acordo regional de comércio foi muito ou algo benéfico ao país; entretanto, a partir da realização do estudo transversal, depreende-se que essa aprovação não é compartilhada -- pelo menos não em tamanha intensidade -- por todos os estratos da sociedade mexicana: a associação mais forte encontrada é com a região geográfica do país. As percepções sobre os efeitos do acordo foram bastante diferenciadas entre a região norte industrializada, onde ele promoveu desenvolvimento e distribuição de renda, e a região sul agrária, onde ele intensificou a pobreza e a desigualdade social. / Through two papers -- a literature review and an empirical analysis -- this research examines the Mexican public opinion on the effects of the NAFTA -- North American Free Trade Agreement -- in 2010, 16 years after its entry into force. The Mexican case is explored in order to achieve a more updated understanding on how the Latin American populations respond to one of the neoliberal restructuring facets -- the regional trade agreements --, overcomed the initial traumatic impact on the production and consume structure of these countries. Bearing in mind that the theme of public opinion is still target of criticism and center of a heated debate within the academic communities and spheres of political power, and that its use, both for academic research purposes and for reasons of public policy, is still questioned, the first paper is based on experience and scientific evidence to demonstrate that public opinion is a stable, measurable and ultimately predictable phenomenon. It is established in this first paper a literature review and an agenda for the analysis of the relationship between public opinion and foreign policy. Justified the use of public opinion as a concrete and reliable scientific evidence, the second paper analyzes, using a public opinion survey held in 2010, the levels of assessment on the effects of the NAFTA and the differences in these levels among the different strata in Mexican society through a cross-sectional study. The aim of this approach is to achieve a further elucidation and clarification on the economic and, especially, social effects of the NAFTA on the Mexican population, since there is much disagreement about such effects. At first, the theoretical assumptions are addressed in order to explain the historical, economical and social significance of the NAFTA, then the data is analyzed and it is carried out the cross-sectional study of association between the public\'s assessment of the effects of the agreement and some demographic variables -- sex, age, education and region -- and partisan variables -- party loyalty. Based on this analysis, it will be concluded that the initial economic trauma due to the acceleration of trends caused by the NAFTA was largely surpassed: 62.8% of Mexicans believe that the regional trade agreement was somewhat or very beneficial to their country; however, through the cross-sectional study, it emerges that such approval is not shared -- at least not so intensively -- by all strata of the Mexican society: the strongest association is found within the geographic region variable. Perceptions on the effects of the agreement were quite different between the industrialized north, where it promoted development and income distribution, and the agrarian south, where it intensified poverty and social inequality.

Este estudo aplicou os princípios da teoria insumo-produto para analisar a importância relativa dos setores primários e, em especial, do setor florestal para a economia acreana, bem como a sua dependência com relação às regiões resto do Norte e resto do Brasil. Os resultados decorrentes desta análise também permitiram caracterizar a estrutura produtiva do Acre, os seus setores-chave e o efeito multiplicador de cada setor econômico em termos de produção, emprego, renda e importação. Através dos resultados obtidos, a hipótese inicialmente formulada de que os setores primários juntamente com os setores relacionados ao comércio e serviços constituem a base da economia acreana pôde ser confirmada. Destaca-se também o fato de os setores Extrativismo vegetal e silvicultura, Indústria da madeira, Indústria do mobiliário, Fabricação de celulose, papel, papelão e artefatos de papel, Indústria editorial e gráfica, e Indústria da borracha, constituintes do macro-setor florestal, não exercerem de fato papel chave na economia acreana, apesar do impacto positivo destes na geração de empregos diretos. Se utilizados os índices de Hirschman-Rasmussen, esse papel chave é exercido pelos setores Metalurgia básica, Indústria têxtil, Outros metalúrgicos, Comunicações, Indústria de alimentos, Químicos diversos, Serviços industriais de utilidade pública, e Instituições financeiras. Se utilizados os índices puros, surgem como setores-chave para a economia acreana os setores Comércio, Saúde pública, Construção civil, Serviços prestados às empresas e Outros administração pública. Em termos de efeito multiplicador de produção, emprego, renda e importação, os setores relacionados a Abate de animais merecem destaque nessas quatro categorias. Industria têxtil e Metalurgia básica se destacam pelo efeito multiplicador da produção; Elementos químicos e Comunicações, pelo efeito multiplicador de emprego; Metalurgia básica e Automóveis, caminhões, ônibus e peças pelo efeito multiplicador da renda, e Saúde mercantil e Indústria da madeira destacaram-se pelo efeito multiplicador de importações. Através da decomposição da produção total de cada região (Acre, resto do Norte e resto do Brasil) em produção induzida pela demanda final da própria região e produção induzida pela demanda final das demais regiões do sistema, constata-se uma baixa ligação entre todas as regiões do sistema inter-regional. No entanto, uma variação na demanda final dos setores do Acre afeta mais a produção da economia do resto do Brasil do que do resto do Norte. A matriz de insumo-produto construída neste trabalho permitiu a estimação do PIB florestal acreano em R$ 17,78 milhões, o que corresponde a 1,15% do PIB total acreano. Os resultados aqui apresentados servirão como marco de comparação para as futuras relações inter-setoriais e inter-regionais decorrentes das grandes transformações pelas quais o estado do Acre passará em breve, quando estiver então efetivamente integrado via rodoviária aos países vizinhos e ao Pacífico. / This study applied input-output principles to the analysis of the relative importance of the primary sectors and specially the forest sector to the Acrean economy, as well as its dependency towards the Rest of the Northern region and the Rest of the Brazilian region. The results also allowed for the characterization of the productive structure of the state of Acre, its key sectors and multiplier effects of each economic sector in terms of production, employment, income and imports. The initially formulated hypothesis that the primary sector and the commerce and services sector form the basis of the Acrean economy was confirmed. The hypothesis that the forest macro-sector, formed by the Plant Extractive, Silviculture, Wood Mills, Furniture Industry, Pulp, Paper and Similar, Editorial and Printing, and Rubber Industry sectors, is a key sector was not confirmed. Its role as one of the most important direct employers was confirmed though. The Hirschman-Rasmussen indices point to the following key-sectors: Basic Metal Industry, Other Metals Textiles, Communications, Food Industry, Chemicals, Industrial Services for Public Utilities, and Finance. The pure index reveal the following sectors as the most important: Commerce, Public Health, Construction, Enterprise Services, and Other Public Management Services. The most important sectors in terms of production, employment, income and import multipliers, simultaneously, are the sectors dealing with the Meat and Food Industry. Individually, the most important sectors in terms of production are the Textiles and Basic Metal Industry; of employment are the Chemical and Communication sectors; of income are the Basic Metals and Automotive sectors; and of import are the Health and Wood Industry. A weak link among all regions is observed when production in each region (Acre, rest of the Northern, and rest of Brazil) is decomposed into production induced by internal demand and production induced by external demand. Meanwhile, when demand varies in Acrean sectors, production is more affected in the Rest of Brazil region than in the Rest of the Northern region. The Acrean Forest Growth Product estimated by the input-output matrix calculated in this study is R$ 17,78 million, which represents 1,15% of the total Acrean Growth Product. This study contributes with data that will allow comparisons of present and future inter-sector and inter-regional relationships; especially after the Acrean economy becomes integrated to neighbor countries and to Pacific ports by new roads.

Em face do aumento significativo dos fluxos de investimento estrangeiro direto e da proliferação dos acordos de integração econômica a partir dos anos 90, este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar se a formação do MERCOSUL contribuiu para atrair investimento estrangeiro direto para o Brasil e a Argentina. Para essa discussão, o trabalho está composto de quatro partes, além da introdução e da conclusão. A primeira parte traz uma abordagem teórica, que discute os fatores determinantes do investimento estrangeiro direto e as principais motivações do investidor e do país receptor. Na segunda parte apresentamos uma discussão teórica dos possíveis impactos dos acordos de integração econômica sobre os fluxos de investimento estrangeiro direto; além disso, apresentamos alguns trabalhos empíricos que discutem essa relação. Na terceira parte desenvolvemos uma análise descritiva dos fluxos de investimentos diretos estrangeiros recebidos por Brasil e Argentina no período de 1990-2009, a qual teve por objetivo identificar se o aumento nos fluxos desses investimentos esteve correlacionado a ampliação do intercâmbio comercial desses países com o MERCOSUL. Os resultados dessa análise descritiva sugerem que fatores internos a cada um dos países analisados foram os grandes responsáveis pela atração do investimento estrangeiro direto no período analisado, e que o MERCOSUL talvez tenha sido um fator determinante secundário. Na quarta parte apresentamos uma análise econométrica e estimamos uma regressão linear utilizando a técnica de Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários, com o objetivo de estimar os parâmetros dos principais fatores apontados na literatura como determinantes dos fluxos de investimento estrangeiro direto, dentre os quais o acordo de integração econômica. Os resultados dessa análise também sugerem que os fatores internos foram predominantes na atração do investimento estrangeiro direto para os dois países e que a integração talvez tenha sido um fator determinante apenas no caso brasileiro. / Given the significant increase in flows of foreign direct investment and the proliferation of economic integration agreements from 90 years, this paper aims to analyze the formation of MERCOSUR has helped attract foreign direct investment to Brazil and Argentina. For this discussion, the work is composed of four parts, besides the introduction and conclusion. The first part presents a theoretical approach, which discusses the determinants of foreign direct investment and the motivations of the investor and the host country. The second part presents a theoretical discussion of possible impacts of economic integration agreements on flows of foreign direct investment, in addition, we present some empirical studies that discuss this relationship. In the third part we develop a descriptive analysis of the flows of foreign direct investment received by Brazil and Argentina in the period 1990-2009, which aimed to identify whether the increase in flows of these investments was correlated to the expansion of trade with MERCOSUR countries. The results of this descriptive analysis suggest that factors internal to each of the countries surveyed were responsible for the attraction of direct foreign investment over this period, and that MERCOSUR may have been a secondary factor. The fourth section presents an econometric analysis and estimate a linear regression technique using OLS, in order to estimate the parameters of the main factors in the literature as determinants of foreign direct investment flows, among which the economic integration agreement . The results of this analysis also suggests that internal factors were predominant in the attraction of FDI for both countries and that integration may have been a determining factor only in the Brazilian case.

O MERCOSUL e a União Européia (UE) firmaram no ano de 1995, o Acordo Marco de Cooperação Inter-Regional, que tinha como objetivo fortalecer as relações bi-regionais e a preparar as condições para a criação de uma Associação Inter-Regional, que abrangesse a área comercial, cooperação econômica, tecnológica, financeira, e também cultural e social. A concretização da Associação representaria um grande ganho para o MERCOSUL devido à importância comercial que a UE representa para o bloco, sendo a sua principal parceira tanto nas exportações quantos nas importações. Desde a assinatura do acordo, os dois blocos realizaram diversas rodadas de negociações, mas não conseguiram avançar na direção de maiores realizações. Um dos principais entraves tem sido a intransigência da UE, principalmente no que diz respeito ao conceder melhores ofertas no setor agrícola. O presente trabalho objetiva, portanto, analisar a evolução das negociações comerciais entre os dois blocos, a fim de identificar os entraves no setor agrícola, que contribuíram para o impedimento da implantação da Associação Inter-Regional. A evolução das rodadas de negociações entre os dois blocos mostrou que o protecionismo agrícola é um dos pontos cruciais para a obtenção de um acordo de livre comércio. O fracasso das negociações provou para o MERCOSUL, que independemente das negociações acontecerem no plano multilateral ou bilateral, a UE não está disposta em maiores concessões. Portanto, enquanto a UE mantiver as subvenções, responsáveis por enormes excedentes na produção agrícola européia, não será possível a obtenção de melhores resultados, que conduzam a implantação de uma área de livre comércio entre MERCOSUL e União Européia. / MERCOSUR and the European Union (EU) signed in 1995, the Framework Agreement on Inter-Regional Cooperation, which aimed to strengthen bi-regional relations and prepare the conditions for the creation of an Interregional Association, covering the commercial area, economic cooperation, technological, financial and also cultural and social. The concretion of the Association would be a great gain for Mercosur due to the commercial importance that the EU accounts for the block, which is its main partner in both exports and imports. Since signing the agreement, the two blocks had several rounds of negotiations, but failed to move toward greater accomplishments. A major obstacle has been the intransigence of the EU, particularly with regard to grant better offers in the agricultural sector. This paper aims, therefore, to examine developments in trade negotiations between the two blocs, in order to identify the barriers in the agricultural sector, which contributed to impeding the implantation of the Inter-Regional. The evolution of rounds of negotiations between the two blocs has shown that agricultural protectionism is one of the crucial points for achieving a free trade agreement. The failure of the negotiations proved to MERCOSUR, that independently the negotiations occur multilaterally or bilaterally, the EU is not willing to further concessions. So, while the EU maintains subsidies, responsible for huge surpluses on European agricultural production, it is not possible to obtain better results, which conduce to establishment of a free trade area between MERCOSUR and the European Union.

A crise entre Brasil e Bolívia desencadeada pela nacionalização do gás é representativa do pa­pel da política doméstica nos temas das relações internacionais. Neste estudo, adotamos uma análise de escolha racional a partir do modelo da Economia Política Aberta, que parte do ambiente econômico para identificar interesses econômicos e sociais, como eles se materializam nas preferências políticas de atores sociais e econômicos, que influenciam a política doméstica e a atuação internacional do estado nacional. No caso em estudo, analisamos a interação e a barganha entre Brasil e Bolívia a partir da influência de atores como o movimento indígena-camponês boliviano, que acumulou forças ao longo dos anos e pôde impor sua agenda de nacionalização dos recursos naturais, a indústria de petróleo e gás, liderada pela Petrobras, e o empresariado industrial brasileiro, consumidor de 50% da oferta de gás natural brasileira. Estes atores influenciaram seus governos, que atuaram racionalmente para defender os interesses de seus países, considerados neste estudo como os interesses dos atores sociais e econômicos com maior força política. / The crisis between Brazil and Bolivia, triggered for the nationalization of natural gas, is rep­resentative of the role of domestic policy issues in international relations. In this study, we ad­opted an analysis of rational choice model, from Open Economy Politics, which starts from the economic environment to identify economic and social interests, and how they matter in political preferences of social and economic players, which influence the domestic politics and international acting of national state. In this case, we analyzed the interaction and bargaining between Brazil and Bolivia under the influence of players like Bolivian peasant-indigenous movement, which gains strength over the years and impose their agenda of nationalization of natural resources, oil and gas industry, led by Petrobras, and, last but not least, Brazil\'s industrial and business, consumer 50% of local supply of natural gas. These actor influenced their governments, who acted rationally to defend our national interests, considered in this paper as the interests of social and economic actors with strong political power.

Em face do aumento significativo dos fluxos de investimento estrangeiro direto e da proliferação dos acordos de integração econômica a partir dos anos 90, este trabalho tem por objetivo analisar se a formação do MERCOSUL contribuiu para atrair investimento estrangeiro direto para o Brasil e a Argentina. Para essa discussão, o trabalho está composto de quatro partes, além da introdução e da conclusão. A primeira parte traz uma abordagem teórica, que discute os fatores determinantes do investimento estrangeiro direto e as principais motivações do investidor e do país receptor. Na segunda parte apresentamos uma discussão teórica dos possíveis impactos dos acordos de integração econômica sobre os fluxos de investimento estrangeiro direto; além disso, apresentamos alguns trabalhos empíricos que discutem essa relação. Na terceira parte desenvolvemos uma análise descritiva dos fluxos de investimentos diretos estrangeiros recebidos por Brasil e Argentina no período de 1990-2009, a qual teve por objetivo identificar se o aumento nos fluxos desses investimentos esteve correlacionado a ampliação do intercâmbio comercial desses países com o MERCOSUL. Os resultados dessa análise descritiva sugerem que fatores internos a cada um dos países analisados foram os grandes responsáveis pela atração do investimento estrangeiro direto no período analisado, e que o MERCOSUL talvez tenha sido um fator determinante secundário. Na quarta parte apresentamos uma análise econométrica e estimamos uma regressão linear utilizando a técnica de Mínimos Quadrados Ordinários, com o objetivo de estimar os parâmetros dos principais fatores apontados na literatura como determinantes dos fluxos de investimento estrangeiro direto, dentre os quais o acordo de integração econômica. Os resultados dessa análise também sugerem que os fatores internos foram predominantes na atração do investimento estrangeiro direto para os dois países e que a integração talvez tenha sido um fator determinante apenas no caso brasileiro. / Given the significant increase in flows of foreign direct investment and the proliferation of economic integration agreements from 90 years, this paper aims to analyze the formation of MERCOSUR has helped attract foreign direct investment to Brazil and Argentina. For this discussion, the work is composed of four parts, besides the introduction and conclusion. The first part presents a theoretical approach, which discusses the determinants of foreign direct investment and the motivations of the investor and the host country. The second part presents a theoretical discussion of possible impacts of economic integration agreements on flows of foreign direct investment, in addition, we present some empirical studies that discuss this relationship. In the third part we develop a descriptive analysis of the flows of foreign direct investment received by Brazil and Argentina in the period 1990-2009, which aimed to identify whether the increase in flows of these investments was correlated to the expansion of trade with MERCOSUR countries. The results of this descriptive analysis suggest that factors internal to each of the countries surveyed were responsible for the attraction of direct foreign investment over this period, and that MERCOSUR may have been a secondary factor. The fourth section presents an econometric analysis and estimate a linear regression technique using OLS, in order to estimate the parameters of the main factors in the literature as determinants of foreign direct investment flows, among which the economic integration agreement . The results of this analysis also suggests that internal factors were predominant in the attraction of FDI for both countries and that integration may have been a determining factor only in the Brazilian case.