Das moderne Finanzsystem ist komplex, dynamisch, hochdimensional und oftmals nicht stationär. All diese Faktoren stellen große Herausforderungen beim Messen des zugrundeliegenden Finanzrisikos dar, das speziell für Marktteilnehmer von oberster Priorität ist. Hochdimensionalität, die aus der ansteigenden Vielfalt an Finanzprodukten entsteht, ist ein wichtiges Thema für Ökonometriker. Ein Standardansatz, um mit hoher Dimensionalität umzugehen, ist es, Schlüsselvariablen auszuwählen und kleine Koeffizientenen auf null zu setzen, wie etwa Lasso. In der Finanzmarktanalyse kann eine solche geringe Annahme helfen, die führenden Risikofaktoren aus dem extrem großen Portfolio, das letztendlich das robuste Maß für finanzielles Risiko darstellt, hervorzuheben. In dieser Arbeit nutzen wir penalisierte Verfahren, um die ökonometrischen Maße für das finanzielle Risiko in hoher Dimension zu schätzen, sowohl mit nieder-, als auch hochfrequenten Daten. Mit Fokus auf dem Finanzmarkt, können wir das Risikonetzwerk des ganzen Systems konstruieren, das die Identifizierung individualspezifischen Risikos erlaubt. / Modern financial system is complex, dynamic, high-dimensional and often possibly non-stationary. All these factors pose great challenges in measuring the underlying financial risk, which is of top priority especially for market participants. High-dimensionality, which arises from the increasing variety of the financial products, is an important issue among econometricians. A standard approach dealing with high dimensionality is to select key variables and set small coefficient to zero, such as lasso. In financial market analysis, such sparsity assumption can help highlight the leading risk factors from the extremely large portfolio, which constitutes the robust measure for financial risk in the end. In this paper we use penalized techniques to estimate the econometric measures of financial risk in high dimensional, with both low-frequency and high-frequency data. With focus on financial market, we could construct the risk network of the whole system which allows for identification of individual-specific risk.

The agricultural sector plays an important role in the South African economy through job creation and earning foreign exchange. The role of agricultural co-operatives increased substantially over the last few decades. The research focuses firstly on the identification of derivative instruments in the market and their applicability to mitigate financial risks co-operatives experience. Secondly, research is conducted about the extent to which co-operatives use these derivatives to hedge financial risks. The research shows that most co-operatives are exposed to financial risks through different activities. It is, however, evident that although the derivative instruments are available, not all co-operatives make use of these instruments. Recommendations for further research include the development of a risk management framework and determining the different economic factors that have an influence on the use of derivatives by South African agricultural co-operatives. / Business Management / M.Comm.

本研究以確定給付型退休基金為對象，建構廣義隨機評價模型，以衡量不確定情況下退休基金之財務風險。希望藉著模型建構的過程，適切地描述基金評價過程中所應考量的各項要素。 為了強調基金評價時同時考量內外部精算假設的重要性，本研究將模型分為存活函數、經濟函數和給付函數三部份討論；存活函數利用離散時間非同質性半馬可夫過程（Discrete Time Non-Homogeneous semi-Markov Process）描述成員狀態轉移的機率，把成員工作年資、年齡和及狀態納入評價過程，有別於傳統僅以年齡為假設基礎之精算方法；經濟函數則以隨機過程表達外部環境的不確定性，結合上述假設資訊預估未來給付後，成為半馬可夫隨機精算評價模型，此一般性的模型能推展至基金評價時所需的各項流程。因此，本研究將模型應用於我國公務人員退撫基金，針對公務人員退撫基金的給付特性發展財務評價公式，完整地描述基金精算成本計算、未來人力與現金流量結構模擬以及敏感度分析等過程。 最後，本研究撰寫公務人員精算評價資訊系統，具體化半馬可夫隨機精算評價模型，實證公務人員退撫基金財務評價公式。實證結果也顯示，不論基金的性質或外部經濟環境，都將影響退休基金財務評價結果，為基金評價時不可忽略的精算假設。 / This study focuses on constructing a generalized valuation model for the defined benefit pension schemes. Financial soundness and funding stability are critical issues in pension fund management. In this study, a realistic stochastic model is built to monitor the uncertainty factors in affecting the financial risk and cash flow dynamics along the decision process. In order to evaluate the importance of the interior and exterior actuarial assumptions in pension valuation. Detailed models in describing the turnover patterns, economic uncertainties and benefit structures are explored. Semi-Markov process proposed by Dominicis, Manca and Granata (1991) and Janssen and Manca (1997) is extended in structuring the transition pattern of the plan’s population and the economic based factors are generated through stochastic processes. Modifications according to classification and movements of the plan member and the plan’s turnover pattern are employed to improve its practical usefulness. Then the actuarial valuations, cash flow analyses and workforce projection are performed and investigated. We has explicitly formulated the plan’s realistic phenomenon and implemented the proposed mechanism into a risk management framework for pension finance. By using this realistic approach, the cost factors could be monitored throughout the valuation. Typically these analyses involve substantial assumptions. This article has outlined the procedure of building the proposed model. Finally, Taiwan Public Employees Retirement System is simplified to illustrate the proposed methodology in pension valuation. The results from this study show that the structure of the pension schemes and the assumed economic factors are the significant factors in pension valuation. It also indicated that the fund manager can evaluate these impacts through the proposed model.

<p><strong>Syfte:</strong> Studiens syfte är att analysera och undersöka om det finns något samband mellan den finansiella risken och lönsamheten. Det övergripande syftet är att se om valet av finansiell risk fungerar som finansieringsstrategi i verkligheten.</p><p><strong>Metod:</strong> Studien bygger på den deduktiva ansatsen där teorier kommer att testas och analyseras mot empiriska data tagna från årsredovisningar. Den kvantitativa metoden används då data från 305 stycken årsredovisningar ska användas för att finna om det finns samband och variation mellan finansiell risk och lönsamhet definierad som vinstmarginal, <em>Rt</em> och <em>Re</em>. Årsredovisningarna utgörs av sekundärdata som samlats in från databasen Retriever. De statistiska metoder som används är bland annat medelvärde, standardavvikelse, regressions- och korrelationsanalys, hypotesprövning och <em>t</em>-test.</p><p><strong>Resultat och slutsats: </strong>Såväl korrelation- och regressionsanalys som hypotesprövning och <em>t</em>-test visar att det finns samband mellan finansiell risk och lönsamhet definierad som <em>Re</em>. Studien visar även att det finns inget samband mellan finansiell risk och lönsamhet definierad som vinstmarginal eller <em>Rt</em>. Valet av finansiell risk fungerar alltså som finansieringsstrategi i verkligheten om lönsamheten är definierad som <em>Re</em>.</p><p><strong>Uppsatsens bidrag:</strong> Resultaten påvisade att det finns samband mellan finansiell risk och <em>Re</em> precis som teorin förespråkar.</p>

Syfte: Studiens syfte är att analysera och undersöka om det finns något samband mellan den finansiella risken och lönsamheten. Det övergripande syftet är att se om valet av finansiell risk fungerar som finansieringsstrategi i verkligheten. Metod: Studien bygger på den deduktiva ansatsen där teorier kommer att testas och analyseras mot empiriska data tagna från årsredovisningar. Den kvantitativa metoden används då data från 305 stycken årsredovisningar ska användas för att finna om det finns samband och variation mellan finansiell risk och lönsamhet definierad som vinstmarginal, Rt och Re. Årsredovisningarna utgörs av sekundärdata som samlats in från databasen Retriever. De statistiska metoder som används är bland annat medelvärde, standardavvikelse, regressions- och korrelationsanalys, hypotesprövning och t-test. Resultat och slutsats: Såväl korrelation- och regressionsanalys som hypotesprövning och t-test visar att det finns samband mellan finansiell risk och lönsamhet definierad som Re. Studien visar även att det finns inget samband mellan finansiell risk och lönsamhet definierad som vinstmarginal eller Rt. Valet av finansiell risk fungerar alltså som finansieringsstrategi i verkligheten om lönsamheten är definierad som Re. Uppsatsens bidrag: Resultaten påvisade att det finns samband mellan finansiell risk och Re precis som teorin förespråkar.

Em um contexto de demandas sociais tendencialmente crescentes, uma das alternativas para o aumento da arrecadação de receitas pelo Estado reside no manejo de aplicações financeiras. Os investimentos financeiros estatais, a rigor, já acontecem, mas nem sempre o objetivo claro e explícito de obtenção de resultados financeiramente interessantes e, eventualmente ou mesmo por isso , sob gestão economicamente ineficiente. Às vezes, até se enxerga o foco na obtenção de rendimentos relevantes na ação estatal, mas sem uma disciplina específica, o que pode abrir espaço a uma gestão de ativos desqualificada ou mesmo fraudulenta, com sérios prejuízos aos cofres públicos e, em situações extremas, ampliação ainda maior das despesas públicas. O objetivo desta tese, portanto, é reconhecer que nem sempre o Estado atua na economia com propósito interventivo e que, na qualidade de investidor institucional vale dizer, de ente que tem o dever de proceder aos investimentos e às aplicações financeiras que digam com as melhores práticas de administração dos ativos públicos , precisa atuar sob o jugo de normas jurídicas claras, que permitam ao Estado ampliar suas receitas dentro de limites razoáveis de exposição a risco financeiro e disponibilizem aos órgãos de fiscalização e controle da Administração Pública as ferramentas necessárias para, também quanto a esse aspecto, aferir a eficiência da ação estatal. Para tanto, têm-se como pressupostos o anacronismo da resistência cultural às aplicações financeiras dos entes da Administração Pública e a noção de que quaisquer ferramentas de obtenção de receitas pelo Estado estão sujeitas a algum grau de risco. Com base nas bem-sucedidas experiências nacionais e internacionais, será possível concluir, ao final, que é admissível, do ponto de vista constitucional e legal, a ação do Estado como investidor nos mercados financeiro e de capitais e que é viável a formulação de parâmetros gerais para a disciplina jurídica do Estado investidor. / In a context of growing social demands, financial investments become one of the alternatives for the State to increase its revenues. State investments, as a matter of fact, already do happen, but not always with the clear and explicit objective of obtaining financially interesting earnings, often due economically inefficient management. Sometimes it is possible to see in government investments some focus on obtaining relevant income, but not under a specific regulation, which can lead to an unqualified or even fraudulent management that may cause serious damage to the exchequer and, in extreme situations, expansion of the government spending. Hence the intent of this thesis is to acknowledge that the State does not always act in the economy with regulatory purposes and that, as an institutional investor i.e., an organization which has the duty of making financial investments in accordance to the best practices in public asset management , it must be framed by clear legal rules, which should allow the State to maximize its revenues within reasonable limits of financial risk exposure and the oversight and control agencies to assess the State efficiency and compliance. It is assumed that the cultural resistance to state financial investments is anachronistic as well as every state means of obtaining revenues is subject to some level of financial risk. Based on well succeeded experiences in Brazil and abroad, it will be possible to conclude, in the end, that it is constitutionally and legally admissible that the State acts as an investor in financial and stock markets and that it is possible to suggest some standards on legal regulation for this issue.

The potential of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in promoting economic growth in both developed and developing countries is widely accepted and documented by both scholars and policy makers. Particularly lacking are studies on the evidence in support of the importance of credit rationing to the sustainability of SMEs in an emerging economy like South Africa’s. This specific problem, especially in the developing countries, has been identified as the major bottleneck in realising socio-economic potentials of SMEs in those countries. However, one of the major ways of addressing the challenge of inadequate funding that exists within the SME sector is the use of bank credit. This study was therefore undertaken to explore the role of commercial banks in the provision of credit to the SMEs in South Africa. This study focuses on the issue of the relationship between the banking industry and SMEs. In particular, the problem of credit rationing of, and discrimination against SMEs by commercial banks was investigated. Because credit rationing and finance gaps can stem from imperfections on either supply-side (banks), or demand-side (SMEs), or both, the intention of the study was to examine both of these variables in order to uncover the implications of their relationships. The empirical analysis is based on survey data collected by means of a structured questionnaire which was distributed amongst banks and SME borrowers in the Gauteng Province of South Africa. Contrary to the general view that commercial banks are disinclined to provide credit to SMEs, the study found that South African banks are keen to serve the SMEs and are therefore making efforts to penetrate this potentially profitable market segment. However, several obstacles are potentially restricting the involvement of banks with SMEs in South Africa. The findings revealed that regulations such as the Financial Intelligence Centre Act (FICA) and the National Credit Act (NCA) came out strongly as major hindrances of bank financing to SMEs. Furthermore, it was shown that compliance with the NCA was ranked higher than credit history and profitability as a factor hindering the approval of SME loans. - iii - However, by using the structural equation modelling (SEM), the results also show that there is a positive and significant influence of lending technology and collateral on the supply of credit to SMEs. Variables such as creditworthiness, collateral and e-banking were found to have a positive and significant impact on the provision of credit to SMEs by commercial banks. For both the supply- and demand-side analysis, technology came out as the most important predictor of SME access to finance. This means that banks should strive to align their lending techniques with the dynamic technological developments so as to reach as many SMEs as possible even in the geographically dispersed regions. It is anticipated that improving SME access to bank credit could be the key to the growth and sustainability of SMEs, the alleviation of poverty and unemployment; and consequently leading to the growth of the South African economy. / Business Management / D. Com. (Business Management)

The agricultural sector plays an important role in the South African economy through job creation and earning foreign exchange. The role of agricultural co-operatives increased substantially over the last few decades. The research focuses firstly on the identification of derivative instruments in the market and their applicability to mitigate financial risks co-operatives experience. Secondly, research is conducted about the extent to which co-operatives use these derivatives to hedge financial risks. The research shows that most co-operatives are exposed to financial risks through different activities. It is, however, evident that although the derivative instruments are available, not all co-operatives make use of these instruments. Recommendations for further research include the development of a risk management framework and determining the different economic factors that have an influence on the use of derivatives by South African agricultural co-operatives. / Business Management / M.Comm.

Em um contexto de demandas sociais tendencialmente crescentes, uma das alternativas para o aumento da arrecadação de receitas pelo Estado reside no manejo de aplicações financeiras. Os investimentos financeiros estatais, a rigor, já acontecem, mas nem sempre o objetivo claro e explícito de obtenção de resultados financeiramente interessantes e, eventualmente ou mesmo por isso , sob gestão economicamente ineficiente. Às vezes, até se enxerga o foco na obtenção de rendimentos relevantes na ação estatal, mas sem uma disciplina específica, o que pode abrir espaço a uma gestão de ativos desqualificada ou mesmo fraudulenta, com sérios prejuízos aos cofres públicos e, em situações extremas, ampliação ainda maior das despesas públicas. O objetivo desta tese, portanto, é reconhecer que nem sempre o Estado atua na economia com propósito interventivo e que, na qualidade de investidor institucional vale dizer, de ente que tem o dever de proceder aos investimentos e às aplicações financeiras que digam com as melhores práticas de administração dos ativos públicos , precisa atuar sob o jugo de normas jurídicas claras, que permitam ao Estado ampliar suas receitas dentro de limites razoáveis de exposição a risco financeiro e disponibilizem aos órgãos de fiscalização e controle da Administração Pública as ferramentas necessárias para, também quanto a esse aspecto, aferir a eficiência da ação estatal. Para tanto, têm-se como pressupostos o anacronismo da resistência cultural às aplicações financeiras dos entes da Administração Pública e a noção de que quaisquer ferramentas de obtenção de receitas pelo Estado estão sujeitas a algum grau de risco. Com base nas bem-sucedidas experiências nacionais e internacionais, será possível concluir, ao final, que é admissível, do ponto de vista constitucional e legal, a ação do Estado como investidor nos mercados financeiro e de capitais e que é viável a formulação de parâmetros gerais para a disciplina jurídica do Estado investidor. / In a context of growing social demands, financial investments become one of the alternatives for the State to increase its revenues. State investments, as a matter of fact, already do happen, but not always with the clear and explicit objective of obtaining financially interesting earnings, often due economically inefficient management. Sometimes it is possible to see in government investments some focus on obtaining relevant income, but not under a specific regulation, which can lead to an unqualified or even fraudulent management that may cause serious damage to the exchequer and, in extreme situations, expansion of the government spending. Hence the intent of this thesis is to acknowledge that the State does not always act in the economy with regulatory purposes and that, as an institutional investor i.e., an organization which has the duty of making financial investments in accordance to the best practices in public asset management , it must be framed by clear legal rules, which should allow the State to maximize its revenues within reasonable limits of financial risk exposure and the oversight and control agencies to assess the State efficiency and compliance. It is assumed that the cultural resistance to state financial investments is anachronistic as well as every state means of obtaining revenues is subject to some level of financial risk. Based on well succeeded experiences in Brazil and abroad, it will be possible to conclude, in the end, that it is constitutionally and legally admissible that the State acts as an investor in financial and stock markets and that it is possible to suggest some standards on legal regulation for this issue.

Cette thèse examine la responsabilité sociale des entreprises (RSE) par les entreprises de secteurs controverses. Dans le premier chapitre, on évalue les stratégies en RSE pour 565 entreprises de secteurs controverses de 1991 à 2013 en estimant la relation compensatoire entre Irresponsabilité Sociale des Entreprises (ISE) et RSE. On montre que ces entreprises tendent à compenser pour leur ISE en s'engageant dans des domaines stratégiques de RSE tels que la protection de l'environnement et le respect des communautés locales avec un manque d'engagement dans d'autres activités telles la gouvernance d'entreprise. Dans le deuxième chapitre, on examine si l'engagement RSE de 499 entreprises de secteurs controverses est susceptible de diminuer leur risque financier. Nos résultats montrent qu'un engagement RSE stratégique réduit le risque idiosyncratique et total pour certaines industries controversées et que le manque d'engagement dans les activités de gouvernance augmente leur risque. Le troisième chapitre examine la divulgation sociétale en tant que mécanisme de reddition de comptes dans le contexte d'un incident environnemental majeur. L'étude de cas des stratégies RSE utilisées par l'entreprise Canadienne En bridge, durant sa réponse a l'incident de déversement de parole en 2010 révèle que ses rapports RSE sont souvent optimistes et ne réussissent pas a décrire son incapacité à faire face aux problèmes de sécurité ayant entrainé l'incident; et ont aussi sous-estime le volume du déversement et la difficulté du nettoyage, ainsi mettant en question l'effet des activités RSE compare à l'effet de facteurs contextuels dans la protection de l'entreprise durant la crise. / This thesis is composed of three chapters that examine corporate social responsibility (CSR) within firms in controversial sectors. In the first chapter, we evaluate patterns of investment in CSR for 565 US publicly traded companies in eight controversial sectors between 1991 and 2013 by assessing the relationship between CSR and Corporate Social Irresponsibility (CSI). We show that firms in controversial sectors compensate for their CSI by engaging in strategic CSR areas such as environmental protection and community development with a lack of engagement towards other areas, such as corporate governance. In the second chapter, we determine whether engagement in specific CSR activities for 499 US companies in controversial sectors decreases their financial risk. We show that engaging in specific CSR activities considered as strategic reduces idiosyncratic and total risk for some controversial industries; and that poor engagement in corporate governance activities increases firm risk. In the third chapter, we investigate CSR reporting as an important mechanism for stakeholder accountability in the context of an environmental crisis. We perform a case study analysis of the CSR strategies used by the Canadian oil company Enbridge in its response to the July 2010 Kalamazoo spill and revealed that Enbridge's CSR reports were frequently optimistic and failed to describe the company's inability to deal with known safety problems that led to spill; and underestimated both the volume of the spill and the difficulty of the cleanup, thus making it difficult to distinguish the effects of the CSR efforts from the effects of other contextual and external factors.