Cette thèse est composée en quatre chapitres distincts. Dans le premier chapitre, nous examinons le lien à long terme entre le développement des marchés boursiers, le développement du secteur bancaire et la croissance économique du groupe BRICS en utilisant l’analyse de données de panel. Notre analyse empirique indique que l'indicateur du développement du marché boursier ainsi que l'indicateur du développement du secteur bancaire ont un impact positif et significatif sur la croissance économique. Cependant, l'indicateur de la profondeur du système financier a un effet négatif et significatif sur la croissance. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous étudions l'impact direct des investissements directs étrangers (IDE) ainsi que l’interaction entre de l’IDE et de la liberté économique sur la croissance économique dans un panel des pays en voie de développement en utilisant l’analyse de données de panel dynamiques et la méthode des moments généralisée (GMM). Nos résultats mettent en évidence de l’effet significatif et positif de la liberté économique sur la croissance économique. En outre, l'impact de l'IDE via le canal de la liberté économique est positif et significatif. Cependant, l'effet de l’IDE sur la croissance économique pourrait varier en termes de développement des pays. Le troisième chapitre étudie l'impact direct de l'IDE et l'effet interactif de l'IDE via les indicateurs de marché financier sur la croissance économique de 20 pays en utilisant l’analyse de données de panel dynamiques et la méthode GMM. Notre analyse empirique indique que l'IDE a un effet significatif et positif sur la croissance économique à travers deux indicateurs du secteur bancaire. De même, les mêmes résultats ont conclu pour l'indicateur de la capitalisation boursière. Cependant, l'effet de l'IDE via l'indicateur de la liquidité du marché boursier est négatif. Dans le quatrième chapitre, nous examinons l'effet de la crise financière à travers les indicateurs du marché boursier sur la croissance économique dans le cas des pays du groupe D8 en utilisant des données de panel dynamiques et la méthode GMM. Les résultats concernant trois modèles employés dans cette étude montrent que la crise financière a un effet négatif et significatif via les indicateurs du marché boursier sur la croissance économique. Par conséquence, la crise financière cause de la réduction de l'impact positif du développement des marchés boursiers sur la croissance économique. Cependant, l'impact direct du développement des marchés boursiers est positif. De même, l’indicateur du secteur bancaire a un effet positif sur la croissance. Aussi, nous montrons que l'impact du secteur bancaire sur la croissance est significativement plus important que l'impact du marché boursier. / This thesis is composed of four separate chapters. In the first chapter, the long-term relationship between stock market development, banking sector development and economic growth in the BRICS group countries has been investigated using panel data analysis. The findings reveal that the proxy of stock market development and also the employed proxy of banking sector development have positive and significant impact on economic growth. However, the channel of financial depth in study countries has a negative and significant effect on growth. In the second chapter, the direct and interactive impact of foreign direct investment and economic freedom on economic growth has been studied in a panel of developing countries using dynamic panel data and generalized method of moments (GMM) approach. The results depict a significant and positive effect of economic freedom on economic growth. Also the impact of FDI through economic freedom channel is positive and significant. However, the effect of FDI on growth may vary in terms of development. The third chapter sought to study the direct impact of FDI and also the interactive effect of FDI through proxies of financial market on economic growth of 20 countries using dynamic panel data and GMM approach. In this regard, the interaction of FDI with four indicators of financial market development has been examined. The results indicate a significant and positive impact of FDI through two proxies of banking sector on economic growth. Similarly, the same results concluded for the indicator of stock market capitalization. However, the effect of FDI through the indicator of stock market liquidity is negative. The fourth chapter aims to examine the effect of global financial crisis through the proxies of stock market on economic growth in case of D8 group countries using dynamic panel data and GMM method. The results concerning three employed models in this study reveal that financial crisis has a significant negative effect through stock market development proxies on economic growth. Accordingly, financial crisis cause to reduction of positive impact of stock market development on economic growth. However, the direct impact of stock market development is positively correlated with economic growth. Likewise, the proxy of banking sector has a positive effect on growth. Also by comparison the effect of stock market development and banking sector development, it can be concluded that impact of banking sector on growth is significantly more than the impact stock market

L’étude du rôle de l’activisme actionnarial des hedge funds (HF) en matière de gouvernancedans la création de valeur des entreprises françaises constitue l’objet principal de cette thèse.Les réflexions menées, issues de la théorie de la gouvernance nous ont permis d’apporter lespremiers éléments de réponse à notre question centrale. L’approche exploratoire de cephénomène nous a conduits à déterminer un modèle français de l’activisme des HF. De notreapproche hypothético-déductive, nous avons pu élaborer un profil type des entreprises viséescotées et examiner les déterminants de la réaction du marché financier avant de mesurerl’effet de l’activisme des HF sur la création de valeur. Il en ressort que ce dernier est àl’origine de nouvelles situations d’équilibre organisationnel. Il est toutefois entravé par laréticence de la coalition de contrôle, renforcée par les caractéristiques spécifiques de lagouvernance et du contexte juridique en France, à entreprendre ces aménagements. Résultat,des coûts de conviction excessifs, des coûts d’enracinement et l’attentisme des investisseurssur le marché français. Contrairement aux investisseurs traditionnels, il est à admettre quel’activisme des HF est un mécanisme alternatif de contrôle efficient, là où certainsmécanismes de gouvernance actionnariale et partenariale semblent être insuffisammentdisciplinaires. Cependant, il est insuffisant pour inciter la coalition de contrôle à agir dansl’intérêt des différentes parties prenantes de l’entreprise. En France, la concentration et lanature actionnariale limitent, voire bloquent, les actions activistes des HF, contrairement auxentreprises américaines où le capital n’est pas verrouillé. La performance des entreprisesfrançaises est donc l’apanage du pouvoir managérial face à une influence activiste des HF. / This research aims to analyse the role of hedge fund (HF) activism in corporate governanceand French firms value creation. The reflections devoted the theory of governance haveenabled us to provide first elements to our central question. The exploratory study allowed usto determine a French model of HF activism. Our hypothetical-deductive approach enabledus to develop a typical profile of a target-listed firm and to examine the determinants of themarket reaction before measuring the effect of HF activism on value creation. The resultsshow that HF activism is causing new organizational equilibrium situations. However, it isopposed by the reluctance of the control coalition due to French governance and legalcontext. Hence, the exorbitant costs of activism in addition to entrenchment problems andinvestors wait-and-see attitude on the French market. As opposed to traditional investors, HFactivism appears as an efficient alternative control mechanism, where some shareholder andstakeholder governance mechanisms seem to be insufficiently disciplinary. Still, HF activismis unable to encourage the reluctant control coalition to act in the firms’ stakeholders’interest. In France, the controlling and family shareholders are opposed to HF activism. It ismore difficult for them to act as they do in American firms where capital is not locked. Thevalue creation is thus confined to managerial power over HF activism.

<p>Основни циљ истраживања у раду представља утврђивање функционалности бонитета у одређивању тржишних цена акција емитената пољопривредног-прехрамбеног сектора у Србији који су укључени на одређен сегмент тржишта Београдске берзе а.д. Београд. Превасходни циљ истраживања је да се утврди каква је међузависност бонитета и метода фундаменталне и техничке анализе цена акција пољопривредно-прехрамбеног сектора у Републици Србији, да се критички сагледају, утврде слабости и предности и да се на основу тога предложе одговарајућа решења, пре свега у смислу како бонитет утиче на тржишне цене акција. Наведено истраживање треба да представља основу за доношење правилних одлука, приликом инвестирања у акције емитената пољопривредно-прехрамбеног сектора. Полазне основе у истраживању представљају финансијски извештаји и показатељи емитената пољоприведно прехрамбеног сектора.<br />Утицај бонитета на тржишне цене акција емитената пољопривредно прехрамбеног сектора утврђена је применом дескриптивне статистике и логистичке регресије. На основу добијених резултата дескриптивне статистике и логистичке регресије за факторе на нивоу значајности 0,05 и 0,01, установљено је да бонитет нема пресудан утицај у одређивању тржишних цена акција, што указује на то да остварени финансијски показатељи и резултати немају утицај на тржишне цене акција. Наведено указује да велики утицај на тржишне цене акција имају макро фактори економског, политичког и друштвеног окружења. Са друге стране добијени резултати указује да бонитет предузећа може да пружи значајне информације приликом предвиђања пада или стагнације цена акција.</p> / <p>Osnovni cilj istraživanja u radu predstavlja utvrđivanje funkcionalnosti boniteta u određivanju tržišnih cena akcija emitenata poljoprivrednog-prehrambenog sektora u Srbiji koji su uključeni na određen segment tržišta Beogradske berze a.d. Beograd. Prevashodni cilj istraživanja je da se utvrdi kakva je međuzavisnost boniteta i metoda fundamentalne i tehničke analize cena akcija poljoprivredno-prehrambenog sektora u Republici Srbiji, da se kritički sagledaju, utvrde slabosti i prednosti i da se na osnovu toga predlože odgovarajuća rešenja, pre svega u smislu kako bonitet utiče na tržišne cene akcija. Navedeno istraživanje treba da predstavlja osnovu za donošenje pravilnih odluka, prilikom investiranja u akcije emitenata poljoprivredno-prehrambenog sektora. Polazne osnove u istraživanju predstavljaju finansijski izveštaji i pokazatelji emitenata poljoprivedno prehrambenog sektora.<br />Uticaj boniteta na tržišne cene akcija emitenata poljoprivredno prehrambenog sektora utvrđena je primenom deskriptivne statistike i logističke regresije. Na osnovu dobijenih rezultata deskriptivne statistike i logističke regresije za faktore na nivou značajnosti 0,05 i 0,01, ustanovljeno je da bonitet nema presudan uticaj u određivanju tržišnih cena akcija, što ukazuje na to da ostvareni finansijski pokazatelji i rezultati nemaju uticaj na tržišne cene akcija. Navedeno ukazuje da veliki uticaj na tržišne cene akcija imaju makro faktori ekonomskog, političkog i društvenog okruženja. Sa druge strane dobijeni rezultati ukazuje da bonitet preduzeća može da pruži značajne informacije prilikom predviđanja pada ili stagnacije cena akcija.</p> / <p>The main objective of the research work is determining the functionality of solvency in determining the market price of shares of the issuers of the agricultural and food sector in Serbia who are involved in a particular segment of the market of the Belgrade Stock Exchange ad Belgrade. The primary goal of the research is to determine what is the interdependence of solvency and methods of fundamental and technical analysis of share prices of agri-food sector in the Republic of Serbia, to critically analyze, identify weaknesses and strengths and that on that basis propose appropriate solutions, especially in terms of how worthiness affects the market price of the shares. The study should be the basis for making the right decisions when investing in shares of issuers agri-food sector. Baseline research are the financial statements of issuers and indicators for agricultural production and food sectors.<br />Influence of solvency on the market price of shares of issuers agri-food sector was assessed by descriptive statistics and logistic regression. Based on the results of descriptive statistics and logistic regression for factors at the significance level of 0.05 and 0.01, it was found that creditworthiness has no influence in determining the market price of shares, indicating that achieved financial indicators and results have uicaj the market price of shares. The above indicates that a large impact on the market price of shares have the macro factors of economic, political and social environment. On the other hand, the results indicate that the creditworthiness of companies may provide important information in predicting the decline or stagnation of share prices.</p>

One could argue that the most discussed topic in finance is whether or not it is possible to “beat the market”. Even though many people claim to do this, there is little evidence to support the idea that one can consistently beat the market over a long period of time. There are indeed several examples of investors who have managed to outperform the market consistently for a long time, but the efforts of these individuals or institutions could by many be considered to be pure luck. One of the many strategies that have been evaluated by several researchers and is said to generate a risk adjusted return greater than that of the market, is one based on the P/E-effect. This strategy is based on the financial ratio P/E – price divided by earnings – and used by constructing portfolios consisting of stocks with low P/E ratios. Several studies have confirmed the existence of the P/E-effect on various stock markets around the world and over different time periods. On the Swedish market, however, few studies have generated the same results. Most of these studies can be considered to be insufficient with regards to sample sizes and methods, spawning a need for more extensive studies. We have examined the P/E strategy on the Swedish Stock Exchange (SSE) between 2004 and 2012. The sample included 358 companies (excluding financial companies) with available necessary data. The stocks were divided into five portfolios based on their yearly P/E ratios (low to high), upon which the monthly returns of the individual stocks were calculated using a logarithmic formula. The returns were also risk adjusted using the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), followed by a regression analysis to see if possible abnormal returns could be considered to be statistically significant for the examined time period. The results of our study indicate that the P/E effect is not present on the Swedish Stock Exchange during the examined time period, and we therefore conclude that it was not possible to utilize a strategy based on the P/E effect between 2004 and 2012 in order to achieve an abnormal return. The results can be used to argue that the Swedish stock market is more efficient than for example the U.S. stock market where the P/E effect has been found to exist.

Two different sets of problems are addressed in this thesis. The first one is on partially observed semi-Markov Games (POSMG) and the second one is on semi-Markov modulated financial market model. In this thesis we study a partially observable semi-Markov game in the infinite time horizon. The study of a partially observable game (POG) involves three major steps: (i) construct an equivalent completely observable game (COG), (ii) establish the equivalence between POG and COG by showing that if COG admits an equilibrium, POG does so, (iii) study the equilibrium of COG and find the corresponding equilibrium of original partially observable problem. In case of infinite time horizon game problem there are two different payoff criteria. These are discounted payoff criterion and average payoff criterion. At first a partially observable semi-Markov decision process on general state space with discounted cost criterion is studied. An optimal policy is shown to exist by considering a Shapley’s equation for the corresponding completely observable model. Next the discounted payoff problem is studied for two-person zero-sum case. A saddle point equilibrium is shown to exist for this case. Then the variable sum game is investigated. For this case the Nash equilibrium strategy is obtained in Markov class under suitable assumption. Next the POSMG problem on countable state space is addressed for average payoff criterion. It is well known that under this criterion the game problem do not have a solution in general. To ensure a solution one needs some kind of ergodicity of the transition kernel. We find an appropriate ergodicity of partially observed model which in turn induces a geometric ergodicity to the equivalent model. Using this we establish a solution of the corresponding average payoff optimality equation (APOE). Thus the value and a saddle point equilibrium is obtained for the original partially observable model. A value iteration scheme is also developed to find out the average value of the game. Next we study the financial market model whose key parameters are modulated by semi-Markov processes. Two different problems are addressed under this market assumption. In the first one we show that this market is incomplete. In such an incomplete market we find the locally risk minimizing prices of exotic options in the Follmer Schweizer framework. In this model the stock prices are no more Markov. Generally stock price process is modeled as Markov process because otherwise one may not get a pde representation of price of a contingent claim. To overcome this difficulty we find an appropriate Markov process which includes the stock price as a component and then find its infinitesimal generator. Using Feynman-Kac formula we obtain a system of non-local partial differential equations satisfied by the option price functions in the mildsense. .Next this system is shown to have a classical solution for given initial or boundary conditions. Then this solution is used to have a F¨ollmer Schweizer decomposition of option price. Thus we obtain the locally risk minimizing prices of different options. Furthermore we obtain an integral equation satisfied by the unique solution of this system. This enable us to compute the price of a contingent claim and find the risk minimizing hedging strategy numerically. Further we develop an efficient and stable numerical method to compute the prices. Beside this work on derivative pricing, the portfolio optimization problem in semi-Markov modulated market is also studied in the thesis. We find the optimal portfolio selections by optimizing expected utility of terminal wealth. We also obtain the optimal portfolio selections under risk sensitive criterion for both finite and infinite time horizon.

This dissertation paper defends a thesis that as the Lithuanian enterprises more actively participate in international contracts, the need for financing grows. In order to minimize possible microeconomic and macroeconomic loss, it is necessary to form the expediente strategy of financing; emphasizing costs of alternatives financial sources under conditions of risk and uncertainty. Analyses conducted in the thesis were sought to contribute both conceptually (by formation of systems and models of capital structure) and practically (by implementation of such systems and models) to financing of companies activities, and to maximizing of EVA. The EVA reveals the dependence of an enterprise’s profitability on the employed capital for gaining that profit. The conceptual need urges to determine the zone of effectiveness of rational capital structure, which stipulates the growth of EVA. Scientific relevance of the dissertation is the main results of the scientific study presented for public maintenance. First, one studied adequate motives under Lithuanian conditions that encourage enterprises to study the substantiation of capital structure formation. The preconditions and criteria affecting the financing decisions of Lithuanian enterprises were conceptually grounded while stressing the aspects of finance market globalization. Second, the systemic capital leverage management model was created; involves the three main ranges that affect enterprises’ activity: internal enterprise’s... [to full text]

Le conflit d’intérêts du banquier, terminologie galvaudée à force d’être invoquée à chaque nouvelle crise, sans pour autant que le droit puisse pleinement s’en saisir, est une notion particulière, autonome et originale qui aspire pourtant instamment à une existence juridique.Il est d'abord le résultat d’une incompatibilité d’un pouvoir et d’un devoir se trouvant concomitamment entre les mains du banquier. Autrement dit, c’est l’état de fait où le banquier détient le pouvoir d’affecter un intérêt, prédéfini comme supérieur, qu’il est tenu de protéger par devoir. S'il se trouve ainsi au cœur du droit de la représentation, qui régit une partie considérable des rapports clients-banquier, il ne s'y cantonne pas et peut aussi bien s’épanouir hors du cadre contractuel.Il suppose, pour exister, un préalable : une relation de confiance, dont le maintien semble avoir justifié des règles aussi nombreuses que disparates. Or, après en avoir effectué une revue critique, il apparaît que, principalement héritées de réglementations spécifiques aux services d’investissement, elles ne parviennent pas à pleinement l'appréhender au sein de ce domaine, et a fortiori pas dans sa sphère d’expression, qui s’étend bien au-delà. Une meilleure gestion juridique de cet objet d'étude nécessite alors que soient recherchées des critères de simplification et d'efficacité.Dans une approche prospective, l’analyse de l’interprétation des concepts de droit auxquels il est fait recours pour contrôler les conflits d’intérêts contractuels du banquier s'impose et révèle que l’obligation de gestion du conflit d’intérêts présente des traits communs à l’obligation traditionnelle de garantie du fait personnel. Une approche comparative des droits anglo-américains confirme la nature particulière de cette obligation du banquier face au conflit d’intérêts. Une telle obligation appelant nécessairement un régime spécifique, dont une ébauche de régime a finalement été proposée. / Banker’s conflict of interests is a hackneyed concept being invoked with each new crisis without being fully seized by the law. Special, autonomous and original, this concept longs earnestly to legal existence. Conflict of interest is the result of an incompatibility of a power and a duty being simultaneously in the hands of the banker. It is the situation where the banker has the power to affect an interest, pre-defined as superior, that he has the duty to protect. The concept stands at the heart of the fiduciary and agency law governing a considerable part of banker-client relationship, but is not restricted to this area and can both flourish outside the contractual context. Banker’s conflict of interests assumes the existence of a prior : a relationship of trust, which it maintenance appears to have justified many and disparate rules. Mainly inherited from regulations specific to investment services, it appears, after a critical review, that they fail to fully understand the conflict of interest in this area, let alone within its sphere of expression, which extends far beyond. A better legal management of the studied object then imposes a search for simplification and efficiency. In a prospective approach, analyzing the interpretation of legal concepts to which recourse is made to control the contractual Banker’s conflict of interests reveals that the obligation to manage the conflict of interest has common features with the traditional guarantee obligation. A comparative approach of the Anglo-American law confirms the unique nature of the banker's obligation facing the conflict of interest. Such an obligation necessarily require specific rules and a draft is being proposed in the thesis.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:52:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 5917.pdf: 3459084 bytes, checksum: d6361e5ced9de0b04791af7a82f60a86 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-03-13 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / The National Bank for Economic and Social Development (BNDES), as a financial intermediary, has acted as a direct instrument of implementation of public policies for using this tool legitimized by economic field , made available through the framework of Private Equity . The uniformity of laws on banking prudence is a necessity imposed by the advancement of innovation and financial globalization . Incorporated the recommendations of Basel banking regulations in Brazil and accounting standards apply to all financial institutions authorized to operate by the Central Bank included therein BNDES and other development banks . This study aims at the implementation of these standards, considering that were designed initially to treat investment banking and retail, a scenario to understand the positioning and transformations of the bank in its organizational space. / O Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (BNDES), enquanto intermediário financeiro, tem atuado como instrumento direto de implantação de políticas pública utilizando-se para isso de ferramentas legitimadas pelo campo econômico, disponibilizadas através da estrutura de Private Equity. A uniformização das legislações sobre prudência bancária é uma necessidade imposta pelo avanço da inovação e da globalização financeira. As recomendações de Basileia incorporadas à regulamentação bancária no Brasil e as normas contábeis se aplicam a todas as instituições financeiras autorizadas a funcionar pelo Banco Central, aí incluídos o BNDES e os demais bancos de desenvolvimento. O presente trabalho busca na aplicação dessa normas, tendo em vista que foram concebidas, inicialmente, para tratar de bancos de investimento e varejo, um cenário para entendermos o posicionamento e transformações do banco em seu espaço organizacional.

São Paulo presenciou, nas últimas duas décadas, o surgimento de grandes edifícios comerciais que passaram a conformar uma paisagem que se tornou a imagem de exportação da cidade. O fenômeno não é isolado: faz parte de um movimento de transformação no qual economia e espaço urbano são agentes de um mesmo processo social, concatenado politicamente ao poder público, em várias instâncias, e ao capital internacional. Sua origem se encontra na abertura da economia do país na década de 1990, que marcou o aumento significativo da instalação em solo nacional de empresas multinacionais, que conformaram uma nova demanda por um espaço diferenciado as lajes corporativas. Este movimento ganhou novas determinantes a partir dos anos 2000, quando foram criados vários instrumentos econômicos e urbanísticos que possibilitaram que o edifício corporativo, antes entendido como ativo fixo, modificasse sua figura no ciclo de valorização e passasse a atuar predominantemente enquanto capital na esfera da circulação. Acresce-se a isto o fato de que o mercado imobiliário nacional, a partir de 2005, passa por mudanças em sua forma de organização e atuação, devido à abertura de capital de significativas empresas do setor. Estes fatores conformam um cenário no qual esta arquitetura ganha novos papéis, principalmente no que concerne à representação do capital. Neste aspecto, as determinantes locais se encontram com as mundiais, numa relação que deve sintetizar um alinhamento aparentemente sem entraves. O trabalho pretende analisar este encontro, neste campo da arquitetura, no intuito de entender, a partir das suas especificidades locais, as contradições que o cercam. Neste encontro, serão analisadas as funcionalidades da arquitetura paulista neste novo cenário econômico. A cadeia local produtiva, de circulação e de uso do edifício corporativo será apresentada, mostrando-se as idiossincrasias, transformações e dificuldades locais que definirão nossa relação com o mercado de capitais internacional. / Sao Paulo witnessed, over the past two decades, the emergence of large commercial buildings that started to form a landscape that has become the city\'s image export. This phenomenon is not isolated: it is part of a movement of transformation in which economy and urban space are agents of the same social process, politically concatenated to the government, in several instances, and to international capital. Its origin lies in the openness of the countrys economy in the 1990s, which marked a significant increase of multinational companies on national soil, which have made a new demand for a different space the corporate towers. This movement gained new determinants from the 2000s, when several urban and economic instruments were created and enabled the corporate building, before understood as a fixed asset, to modify its image in the cycle of valorization and begin to act predominantly as a capital in the sphere of circulation. Added to this is the fact that the national real state market, since 2005, undergoes through changes in its organizational and performance form, due to the IPO of significant companies in the sector. These factors have formed a scenario in which this architecture is gaining new roles, especially regarding the representation of capital. In this aspect, the local determinants meet global determinants, in a relationship that must synthesize an alignment apparently unhindered. This study aims to examine this encounter, in the field of architecture, in order to understand, based on its specific local conditions, the contradictions that surround it. In this encounter, it will be taken into consideration the features of paulista (original from the state of Sao Paulo) architecture in this new economic scenario. The local chain of production, circulation and use of corporate buildings will appear, revealing the idiosyncrasies, changes and local difficulties that will define our relationship with the international capital market.

Submitted by Fernando Ramacciotti (fernandoramacciotti@gmail.com) on 2018-08-16T00:05:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ramacciotti-301002-dissertacao.pdf: 926154 bytes, checksum: 8ba0eb0b731a4a889db53633089cb532 (MD5) / Rejected by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br), reason: Boa tarde, Fernando! Para que possamos aprovar seu trabalho, serão necessárias as seguintes alterações: - A Data da Aprovação (página da Banca Examinadora), deve estar em branco. - As listas de figuras, tabelas, gráficos, etc, devem estar antes do sumário. Por gentileza, alterar e submeter novamente. Qualquer dúvida, entre em contato. Thais Oliveira mestradoprofissional@fgv.br/ 3799-7764 on 2018-08-20T20:37:30Z (GMT) / Submitted by Fernando Ramacciotti (fernandoramacciotti@gmail.com) on 2018-08-20T21:02:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ramacciotti-301002-dissertacao.pdf: 926108 bytes, checksum: 3cf003abd93844560698350886fedf8c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Thais Oliveira (thais.oliveira@fgv.br) on 2018-08-21T23:45:23Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ramacciotti-301002-dissertacao.pdf: 926108 bytes, checksum: 3cf003abd93844560698350886fedf8c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-08-22T12:32:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ramacciotti-301002-dissertacao.pdf: 926108 bytes, checksum: 3cf003abd93844560698350886fedf8c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T12:32:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ramacciotti-301002-dissertacao.pdf: 926108 bytes, checksum: 3cf003abd93844560698350886fedf8c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-08-10 / Significant market events in the financial market will only occur if there is synchrony among large groups of people and the media is the main vehicle to it. Previous works could find some relationship between newspapers and financial market indicators. This work revisits, in some sense, the findings of the traditional literature on financial market investors’ behavior and its relationship to the news, but now in the Modern Era context of social media. The main goal of this work is to identify if the overall sentiment of Twitter users has some relationship with the financial market. We created a database that joins non-structured data from tweets and structured time series data related to the S&P500 index, its trading volume and implied volatility (measured by the VIX). The non-structured data was processed in order to categorize each word from each tweet into several semantic categories defined by the Harvard-IV psychological dictionary. Then, two sentiment indexes were created via Principal Component Analysis (PCA): Engagement Factor (EF) and Optimism Factor (OF). Using Vector Autoregressive (VAR) framework, we simultaneously estimated the effects of sentiment on financial market variables and vice versa. Our results indicate that Twitter users seem to respond to financial market events, i.e. their sentiment is a consequence of financial events and do not have predictive power. / Eventos significativos no mercado financeiro ocorrem apenas se existe uma sintonia entre grupos de pessoas e a mídia é o principal meio para tal. Trabalhos anteriores encontraram relações entre notícias de jornais e o indicadores usados no mercado financeiro. Este trabalho, de certo modo, retoma as descobertas da literatura tradicional sobre a relação entre o comportamento de investidores do mercado financeiro e as notícias, porém agora no contexto da Era Moderna das mídias sociais. O principal objetivo desse estudo é identificar se o sentimento dos usuários do Twitter tem alguma relação com o mercado financeiro. Construiu-se uma base de dados que unifica dados não-estruturados de tweets com dados estruturados de séries de tempo financeiras do índice americano S&P500, o seu volume negociado e a sua volatilidade (esta medida pelo índice VIX). Os dados não-estruturados foram processados para poder categorizar cada palavra de cada tweet em categorias semânticas definidas dicionário psicológico Harvard-IV. Após isso, foram criados duas medidas de sentimento via Análise de Componentes Principais (PCA na sigla em inglês): os Fatores de Engajamento e Otimismo. Adotou-se o modelo de Vetor Autoregressivo (VAR) para estimar simultaneamente os efeitos dos sentimentos e variáveis do mercado financeiro uns nos outros. Os resultados indicam que os usuários do Twitter parecem ser mais responsivos aos eventos do mercado, ou seja, o sentimento produzido por seus tweets parecem ser reflexo de eventos financeiros e não têm poder preditivo.