<p>The cross-sectional variation of stock returns used to be described by the Capital Asset Pricing Model until the early 90‟s. Anomalies, such as, book-to-market effect and small firm effect undermined CAPM‟s ability to explain stock returns and Fama & French (1992) have shown that simple firm attributes, like, firm size and book-to-market value can explain the returns far better than Beta. Following Fama & French many other researchers examine the explanatory powers of CAPM and other asset pricing models. However, most of those studies use US data. There are some researches done in different countries than US, however more out-of-sample studies need to be conducted.</p><p>To our knowledge there are very few studies using the Swedish data and this thesis contributes to that small pool of studies. Moreover, the studies testing the CAPM use the unconditional version of the model. There are some papers suggesting the use of a conditional CAPM that would exhibit better explanatory powers than the unconditional CAPM. Different ways of conditioning the CAPM have been proposed, but one that we think is the least complex and possible to make use of in the business world is the dual-beta model. This conditional CAPM assumes a different relationship between beta and stock returns during the up markets and down markets. Furthermore, the model has not thoroughly been tested outside the US. Our study is the first to use the dual-beta model in Sweden. In addition, the momentum effect has lately been given some attention and Fama & French‟s (1993) three factor model has not been able to explain the abnormal returns related to that anomaly. We test the Fama & French three factor model, CAPM and Carhart‟s four factor model‟s explanatory abilities of the momentum effect using Swedish stock returns. Ultimately, our aim is to find the best model that describes stock return cross-section on the Stockholm Stock Exchange.</p><p>We use returns of all the non-financial firms listed on Stockholm Stock Exchange between September, 1997 and April, 2010. The number of companies included in our time sample is 366. The results of our tests indicate that the small firm effect, book-to-market effect and the momentum effect are not present on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Consequently, the CAPM emerges as the one model that explains stock return cross-section better than the other models suggesting that Beta is still a proper measure of risk. Furthermore, the conditional version of CAPM describes the stock return variation far better than the unconditional CAPM. This implies using different Betas to estimate risk during up market conditions and down market conditions.</p>

The cross-sectional variation of stock returns used to be described by the Capital Asset Pricing Model until the early 90‟s. Anomalies, such as, book-to-market effect and small firm effect undermined CAPM‟s ability to explain stock returns and Fama &amp; French (1992) have shown that simple firm attributes, like, firm size and book-to-market value can explain the returns far better than Beta. Following Fama &amp; French many other researchers examine the explanatory powers of CAPM and other asset pricing models. However, most of those studies use US data. There are some researches done in different countries than US, however more out-of-sample studies need to be conducted. To our knowledge there are very few studies using the Swedish data and this thesis contributes to that small pool of studies. Moreover, the studies testing the CAPM use the unconditional version of the model. There are some papers suggesting the use of a conditional CAPM that would exhibit better explanatory powers than the unconditional CAPM. Different ways of conditioning the CAPM have been proposed, but one that we think is the least complex and possible to make use of in the business world is the dual-beta model. This conditional CAPM assumes a different relationship between beta and stock returns during the up markets and down markets. Furthermore, the model has not thoroughly been tested outside the US. Our study is the first to use the dual-beta model in Sweden. In addition, the momentum effect has lately been given some attention and Fama &amp; French‟s (1993) three factor model has not been able to explain the abnormal returns related to that anomaly. We test the Fama &amp; French three factor model, CAPM and Carhart‟s four factor model‟s explanatory abilities of the momentum effect using Swedish stock returns. Ultimately, our aim is to find the best model that describes stock return cross-section on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. We use returns of all the non-financial firms listed on Stockholm Stock Exchange between September, 1997 and April, 2010. The number of companies included in our time sample is 366. The results of our tests indicate that the small firm effect, book-to-market effect and the momentum effect are not present on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Consequently, the CAPM emerges as the one model that explains stock return cross-section better than the other models suggesting that Beta is still a proper measure of risk. Furthermore, the conditional version of CAPM describes the stock return variation far better than the unconditional CAPM. This implies using different Betas to estimate risk during up market conditions and down market conditions.

Em um contexto de demandas sociais tendencialmente crescentes, uma das alternativas para o aumento da arrecadação de receitas pelo Estado reside no manejo de aplicações financeiras. Os investimentos financeiros estatais, a rigor, já acontecem, mas nem sempre o objetivo claro e explícito de obtenção de resultados financeiramente interessantes e, eventualmente ou mesmo por isso , sob gestão economicamente ineficiente. Às vezes, até se enxerga o foco na obtenção de rendimentos relevantes na ação estatal, mas sem uma disciplina específica, o que pode abrir espaço a uma gestão de ativos desqualificada ou mesmo fraudulenta, com sérios prejuízos aos cofres públicos e, em situações extremas, ampliação ainda maior das despesas públicas. O objetivo desta tese, portanto, é reconhecer que nem sempre o Estado atua na economia com propósito interventivo e que, na qualidade de investidor institucional vale dizer, de ente que tem o dever de proceder aos investimentos e às aplicações financeiras que digam com as melhores práticas de administração dos ativos públicos , precisa atuar sob o jugo de normas jurídicas claras, que permitam ao Estado ampliar suas receitas dentro de limites razoáveis de exposição a risco financeiro e disponibilizem aos órgãos de fiscalização e controle da Administração Pública as ferramentas necessárias para, também quanto a esse aspecto, aferir a eficiência da ação estatal. Para tanto, têm-se como pressupostos o anacronismo da resistência cultural às aplicações financeiras dos entes da Administração Pública e a noção de que quaisquer ferramentas de obtenção de receitas pelo Estado estão sujeitas a algum grau de risco. Com base nas bem-sucedidas experiências nacionais e internacionais, será possível concluir, ao final, que é admissível, do ponto de vista constitucional e legal, a ação do Estado como investidor nos mercados financeiro e de capitais e que é viável a formulação de parâmetros gerais para a disciplina jurídica do Estado investidor. / In a context of growing social demands, financial investments become one of the alternatives for the State to increase its revenues. State investments, as a matter of fact, already do happen, but not always with the clear and explicit objective of obtaining financially interesting earnings, often due economically inefficient management. Sometimes it is possible to see in government investments some focus on obtaining relevant income, but not under a specific regulation, which can lead to an unqualified or even fraudulent management that may cause serious damage to the exchequer and, in extreme situations, expansion of the government spending. Hence the intent of this thesis is to acknowledge that the State does not always act in the economy with regulatory purposes and that, as an institutional investor i.e., an organization which has the duty of making financial investments in accordance to the best practices in public asset management , it must be framed by clear legal rules, which should allow the State to maximize its revenues within reasonable limits of financial risk exposure and the oversight and control agencies to assess the State efficiency and compliance. It is assumed that the cultural resistance to state financial investments is anachronistic as well as every state means of obtaining revenues is subject to some level of financial risk. Based on well succeeded experiences in Brazil and abroad, it will be possible to conclude, in the end, that it is constitutionally and legally admissible that the State acts as an investor in financial and stock markets and that it is possible to suggest some standards on legal regulation for this issue.

Em um contexto de demandas sociais tendencialmente crescentes, uma das alternativas para o aumento da arrecadação de receitas pelo Estado reside no manejo de aplicações financeiras. Os investimentos financeiros estatais, a rigor, já acontecem, mas nem sempre o objetivo claro e explícito de obtenção de resultados financeiramente interessantes e, eventualmente ou mesmo por isso , sob gestão economicamente ineficiente. Às vezes, até se enxerga o foco na obtenção de rendimentos relevantes na ação estatal, mas sem uma disciplina específica, o que pode abrir espaço a uma gestão de ativos desqualificada ou mesmo fraudulenta, com sérios prejuízos aos cofres públicos e, em situações extremas, ampliação ainda maior das despesas públicas. O objetivo desta tese, portanto, é reconhecer que nem sempre o Estado atua na economia com propósito interventivo e que, na qualidade de investidor institucional vale dizer, de ente que tem o dever de proceder aos investimentos e às aplicações financeiras que digam com as melhores práticas de administração dos ativos públicos , precisa atuar sob o jugo de normas jurídicas claras, que permitam ao Estado ampliar suas receitas dentro de limites razoáveis de exposição a risco financeiro e disponibilizem aos órgãos de fiscalização e controle da Administração Pública as ferramentas necessárias para, também quanto a esse aspecto, aferir a eficiência da ação estatal. Para tanto, têm-se como pressupostos o anacronismo da resistência cultural às aplicações financeiras dos entes da Administração Pública e a noção de que quaisquer ferramentas de obtenção de receitas pelo Estado estão sujeitas a algum grau de risco. Com base nas bem-sucedidas experiências nacionais e internacionais, será possível concluir, ao final, que é admissível, do ponto de vista constitucional e legal, a ação do Estado como investidor nos mercados financeiro e de capitais e que é viável a formulação de parâmetros gerais para a disciplina jurídica do Estado investidor. / In a context of growing social demands, financial investments become one of the alternatives for the State to increase its revenues. State investments, as a matter of fact, already do happen, but not always with the clear and explicit objective of obtaining financially interesting earnings, often due economically inefficient management. Sometimes it is possible to see in government investments some focus on obtaining relevant income, but not under a specific regulation, which can lead to an unqualified or even fraudulent management that may cause serious damage to the exchequer and, in extreme situations, expansion of the government spending. Hence the intent of this thesis is to acknowledge that the State does not always act in the economy with regulatory purposes and that, as an institutional investor i.e., an organization which has the duty of making financial investments in accordance to the best practices in public asset management , it must be framed by clear legal rules, which should allow the State to maximize its revenues within reasonable limits of financial risk exposure and the oversight and control agencies to assess the State efficiency and compliance. It is assumed that the cultural resistance to state financial investments is anachronistic as well as every state means of obtaining revenues is subject to some level of financial risk. Based on well succeeded experiences in Brazil and abroad, it will be possible to conclude, in the end, that it is constitutionally and legally admissible that the State acts as an investor in financial and stock markets and that it is possible to suggest some standards on legal regulation for this issue.

La présente thèse est composée d’un ensemble de travaux de recherche en économie appliquée qui s’inscrivent dans le champ contemporain de l’économie de l’assurance. La thèse s’interroge sur comment les pays en développement pourraient développer davantage le secteur d’assurance afin de bénéficier des effets sur l’économie domestique. La première partie de la thèse analyse les déterminants macroéconomiques du développement du secteur d’assurance. Premièrement, les résultats montrent que l'augmentation du revenu par habitant conduit à une augmentation des primes d'assurance-vie et l’assurance-vie est un bien de luxe en Afrique Subsaharienne (chapitre 2). On trouve également des preuves que l’impact marginal du revenu dépend de la qualité de l'environnement juridique et politique. Deuxièmement, l’analyse de l’effet des IDE montre que, ceux-ci constituent un facteur clé dans l'augmentation des primes d'assurance non-vie à la fois dans les pays d’Afrique Subsaharienne (ASS) et dans les autres pays en développement (chapitre 3). Troisièmement, les activités d’assurance-vie et bancaire sont substituables en ASS, cependant les résultats indiquent une causalité unidirectionnelle allant du crédit bancaire au secteur privé vers le développement des activités d’assurance-vie (chapitre 4). La deuxième partie de la thèse analyse l’impact du développement du secteur d’assurance sur l’économie des pays en développement. Premièrement, il apparaît que le développement de l'assurance-vie a un effet positif sur la croissance économique dans les pays en développement d'une part et d'autre part, l’effet marginal de l’assurance-vie est influencé par les caractéristiques structurelles des pays (chapitre 5). Les primes d'assurance augmentent de façon significative la valeur des titres négociés sur le marché financier aussi bien avant et après la crise de 2007(chapitre 6). Troisièmement, la thèse a montré qu’il existe une relation à long terme entre le développement de l’assurance non-vie et l’ouverture commerciale et que les primes d'assurance non-vie améliorent l'ouverture au commerce international aussi bien dans les pays en développement que spécifiquement dans les pays à faible et moyen revenu (chapitre 7). / This thesis is composed of a set of research in applied economics that enroll in the contemporary field of economics of insurance. The thesis analyses how developing countries could develop more the insurance sector and benefit from these effects on local economy. The first part explored the determinants of insurance development from a macroeconomic perspective. First, the results show that increase of income per capita leads to an increase in life insurance premiums and that life insurance is a luxury commodity in Sub-Saharan Africa (chapter 2). We also find evidence that the marginal impact of income varies according to the quality of legal and political environment. Second, analysis of effect of the FDI inflows shows that these are a key factor in increase of non-life insurance premiums in countries of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and in other developing countries (chapter 3). In chapter 4, the results highlighted that the activities of life insurance and banking are substitutable in SSA and, however, there is presence of unidirectional causality running from real private credit density to life insurance and insurance density. The second part of the thesis has analysed effect of development of insurance sector on economy in developing countries. First, it appears that the development of life insurance has a positive effect on economic growth on the one hand and on the other hand marginal effect of life insurance is influenced by the structural characteristics of countries (chapter 5). In chapter 6, the results showed that the insurance premiums significantly increase stock market value traded, before as well and after the 2007's economic crisis. Finally, the thesis showed that there is a long term relationship between the development of non-life insurance and trade openness and that non-life insurance premiums improve openness to international trade as well in developing countries than specifically in low and middle income countries (chapter 7).

Der tatsächliche Erfolg einer Immobilieninvestition wird maßgeblich von der zukünftigen Entwicklung des wirtschaftlichen Umfeldes bestimmt. Im Rahmen einer Immobilieninvestition sind für Investoren z. B. die zukünftigen Mieteinnahmen oder die allgemeine Wertentwicklung der Immobilie entscheidend. Da jedoch Entscheidungen in der Immobilienwirtschaft langfristiger Natur sind, kommt der Zukunftsorientiertheit und des damit verbundenen Risikos eine große Bedeutung zu. Die Entstehung von Immobilienzyklen kann nicht nur mit realen und monetären Fundamentaldaten (z. B. Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Zinsentwicklung) erklärt werden, sondern auch mit psychologischen Faktoren, wie beispielsweise Erwartungen und Einstellungen der Marktteilnehmer. Da mathematisch-statistische Prognoseverfahren diese Komponente nur unzureichend abbilden können, soll die Dissertation einen Beitrag zur Erforschung der Expertenbefragung als Prognoseinstrument darstellen. Ein weiterer Grund besteht darin, dass in der bisher veröffentlichten Fachliteratur der Expertenbefragung als Prognoseverfahren nur eine geringe oder gar keine Bedeutung beigemessen wurde. Ziel ist es herauszustellen, ob und unter welchen Voraussetzungen und Bedingungen Expertenbefragungen zur Prognose von Immobilienwerten geeignet sind und ob die Kombination der Ergebnisse der Expertenbefragungen mit den Ergebnissen mathematisch-statistischer Prognoseverfahren eine Erhöhung der Prognosegenauigkeit ermöglicht. Hierzu wird die zukünftige Entwicklung verschiedener Immobilienwerte für 2 bis 3 Jahre und für 5 Jahre durch Expertenumfragen und mit Hilfe ausgewählter mathematisch-statistischer Prognoseverfahren prognostiziert. Um die Güte der Expertenschätzungen beurteilen zu können, werden die Prognoseergebnisse mit der tatsächlichen Entwicklung und mit den Ergebnissen der mathematisch-statistischen Prognoseverfahren verglichen. In einer abschließenden Gegenüberstellung sollen Aussagen darüber getroffen werden, ob Expertenbefragungen für Prognosezwecke geeignet sind. Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt liegt dabei auch auf psychologischen Aspekten bzw. endogenen und exogenen Einflussgrößen, welche sich auf das Antwortverhalten der Experten auswirken können. Ziel ist es deshalb weiterhin, eine Handlungsempfehlung für die Durchführung von Expertenbefragungen - speziell für die Abgabe von mehrjährigen Trends und auch für Zwecke der Verkehrswertermittlung - zu geben.

Les sociétés familiales sont les plus anciennes, les plus nombreuses et les plus importantes de notre économie. Pourtant, elles ne font l’objet d’aucune définition légale et n’ont que rarement suscité l’intérêt du juriste. Nous avons donc cherché à caractériser la société familiale en nous intéressant plus particulièrement à certaines d’entre elles, les sociétés cotées sur le marché financier. La société cotée familiale combine deux univers, la famille et le marché, qui sont fondés sur des valeurs et des modes de fonctionnement diamétralement opposés. Cette opposition nous permet de mieux distinguer les spécificités, mais également les risques attachés aux sociétés familiales. C’est à travers l’exemple des chaebol, des conglomérats familiaux coréens, que cette étude a été menée. L’analyse emprunte une méthode comparative où les sociétés chaebol sont opposées aux sociétés familiales françaises. Notre étude a permis de mettre en évidence l’impact du contrôle familial sur le fonctionnement de la société cotée. Elle souligne également l’échec relatif du transfert des normes américaines dans l’environnement coréen, confirmant ainsi la théorie de la dépendance au sentier. Parallèlement, cette étude invite à réfléchir sur la réception possible du droit français, plus proche de la réalité coréenne / Family-owned companies contribute the largest share to our economy. Yet, there is still no legal definition of what a family-owned company is and the topic has not drawn a lot of interest from legal academics. This study aims at differentiating family-owned companies by focusing more specifically on companies listed on a financial market. Family-owned listed company combines two worlds, family and financial market, which are based on diametrically opposed values and modus operandi. This conflict helps us to understand the specific features of these companies, as well as the risks attached to them. Taking the example of the chaebol, the Korean family-owned conglomerates, we highlighted the impact of the family control on the management and the governance of these groups. We compared French and Korean companies and legal frameworks, drawing the conclusion that the French legal system might have been a better fit to the Korean environment than American rules. Our research also underlines the relative failure of the transplant of U.S. standards in South Korea, which can be explained by the theory of path dependence.

This study aims to determine the main drivers of financial market development, with a specific interest in the relationship between the stock and bank credit markets, as proxies of financial market development, and the role of institutional quality, in ten African countries for the period of 2009 to 2017. A number of econometric techniques such as the General Methods of Moments (GMM) model for dynamic panel data, autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration, vector error correction model (VECM), and granger causality tests were applied in the study. We further developed a composite index for both financial market development and institutional quality using Principal Components Analysis (PCA). The results demonstrate that institutional quality, as well as infrastructure development, economic growth, and inflation are the main determinants of financial market development in our sample of ten African countries. Findings from the ARDL bound testing approach confirm the existence of a long-run association between institutional quality and financial market development. Although financial market development has no effect on economic growth, institutional quality was found to have a positive and highly significant effect on economic growth. Furthermore, employing the Granger causality test, we found uni-directional granger causality between financial market development and institutional quality, implying that financial market development is a significant causal factor for institutional quality. In consideration of these findings, policy formulation by governments should be designed towards enhancing financial and institutional quality development, and this can be possibly achieved by effective enforcement of law to encourage compliance, while simultaneously eliminating corruption and other institutional hindrances to development / Lolu cwaningo luhlose ukuveza izinhlaka ezingabaphembeleli abasemqoka ekuthuthukisweni kwezimakethe zezimali, kugxilwe kakhulu kubudlelwano obuphakathi kwesitoko kanye nezimakethe zamabhangi ahlinzekana ngezikweletu, njengabancedisi abathuthukisa izimakethe zezimali, kanye nendima emayelana nezinga leziko, emazweni ase-Afrika ayishumi esikhathini esiphakathi kuka 2009 ukufikela ku 2017. Inani lezindlela zokulinganisa izinga lomnotho ezinjenge-General Methods of Moments (GMM) model yedatha yephaneli eguquguqukayo, i-autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration, i-vector error correction model (VECM), Kanye negranger causality tests zisetshenzisiwe kucwaningo. Siqhubekele phambili nokwakha inkomba ehlangene yazo zombili izinhlaka; ukuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zezimali Kanye nezinga leziko ngokusebenzisa uhlelo lwe-Principal Components Analysis (PCA). Imiphumela ikhombisile ukuthi izinga leziko, Kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwengqalasizinda, ukuhluma komnotho, Kanye nezinga lamandla email yizinkomba ezisemqoka zokuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zezimali kusampuli yethu elula yamazwe ase-Afrika ayishumi. Ulwazi olutholakele ku-ARDL bound testing approach luqinisekisa ubukhona kobudlelwano besikhathi eside obuphakathi kwezinga leziko kanye nokuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zezimali. Yize ukuthuthukiswa kwemakethe yezimali kungenawo umthelela kwezokuhluma komnotho, izinga leziko lona liye latholakala ukuthi linomthelela omuhle nosemqoka kakhulu ekukhuleni komnotho. Ngaphezu kwalokho, uma sisebenzisa uhlelo lweGranger causality test, sifumene i-uni-directional granger causality phakathi kwemakethe yezimali Kanye nezinga leziko, lokhu kuchaza ukuthi ukuthuthukiswa kwezimakethe zezimali kuyimbangela esemqoka yezinga leziko. Uma kubhekwa lolu lwazi olutholakele, imigomo eyakhwa uhulumeni kufanele yakhiwe ngenhloso yokuqinisa ukuthuthukiswa kwezinga lezimali Kanye nezinga leziko, kanti lokhu kungafinyelelwa ngokuqinisa kahle umthetho ukukhuthaza ukulandelwa komthetho, kanti ngakolunye uhlangothi kuncishiswe izinga lenkohlakalo Kanye nezinye izihibhe eziphazamiso ukuthuthukiswa kweziko. / Maikaelelo a thutopatlisiso ke go swetsa ka ditsamaisi tse dikgolo tsa tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete, ka kgatlhego e rileng mo kamanong magareng ga mebaraka ya setoko le ya sekoloto sa dibanka, jaaka kemedi ya tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete, le seabe sa boleng jwa ditheo, mo dinageng di le lesome tsa Aforika mo pakeng ya 2009 go ya go 2017. Go dirisitswe dithekeniki di le mmalwa tsa ikonometiriki di tshwana le sekao sa General Methods of Moments (GMM) sa data ya phanele e anameng, molebo wa tekeletso e kopanyang ya autoregressive distribution lag (ARDL), sekao sa vector error correction (VECM) le diteko tsa sesusumetsi tsa Granger. Gape re tlhamile tshupane ya dikarolo ya tlhabololo ya mmaraka wa ditšhelete le boleng jwa ditheo re dirisa Tokololo ya Dikarolo tse Dikgolo (Principal Components Analysis (PCA)). Dipholo di bontsha gore boleng jwa ditheo, gammogo le tlhabololo ya mafaratlhatlha, kgolo ya ikonomi le infoleišene ke diswetsi tsa tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete mo sampoleng ya rona ya dinaga di le lesome tsa Aforika. Diphitlhelelo go tswa mo molebong wa teko e kopanyang ya ARDL di tlhomamisa go nna teng ga kamano ya paka e telele magareng ga boleng jwa ditheo le tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete. Le fa tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete e sa ame kgolo ya ikonomi ka gope, boleng jwa ditheo bo fitlhetswe bo na le ditlamorago tse di siameng e bile di le botlhokwa mo kgolong ya ikonomi. Mo godimo ga moo, ka go dirisa teko ya Granger ya sesusumetsi, re fitlhetse go na le sesusumetsi sa ntlha e le nngwe sa Granger magareng ga lhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete le boleng jwa ditheo, mo go rayang gore tlhabololo ya mebaraka ya ditšhelete ke ntlha e e botlhokwa ya sesusumetsi sa boleng jwa ditheo. Fa go lebelelwa diphitlhelelo tseno, go dirwa ga dipholisi ke dipuso go tshwanetse ga dirwa gore go tokafatse tlhabololo ya boleng jwa ditšhelete le ditheo, mme seno se ka fitlhelelwa ka tiragatso e e bokgoni ya molao go rotloetsa kobamelo mme go ntse go fedisiwa bobodu le dikgoreletsi tse dingwe tsa tlhabololo mo ditheong. / Business Management / M. Com. (Business Management (Finance))

Le but de cette thèse CIFRE est de construire un portefeuille de stratégies de trading algorithmique intraday. Au lieu de considérer les prix comme une fonction du temps et d'un aléa généralement modélisé par un mouvement brownien, notre approche consiste à identifier les principaux signaux auxquels sont sensibles les donneurs d'ordres dans leurs prises de décision puis alors de proposer un modèle de prix afin de construire des stratégies dynamiques d'allocation de portefeuille. Dans une seconde partie plus académique, nous présentons des travaux de pricing d'options européennes et asiatiques. / The aim of this CIFRE thesis is to build a portfolio of intraday algorithmic trading strategies. Instead of considering stock prices as a function of time and a brownian motion, our approach is to identify the main signals affecting market participants when they operate on the market so we can set up a prices model and then build dynamical strategies for portfolio allocation. In a second part, we introduce several works dealing with asian and european option pricing.

Der tatsächliche Erfolg einer Immobilieninvestition wird maßgeblich von der zukünftigen Entwicklung des wirtschaftlichen Umfeldes bestimmt. Im Rahmen einer Immobilieninvestition sind für Investoren z. B. die zukünftigen Mieteinnahmen oder die allgemeine Wertentwicklung der Immobilie entscheidend. Da jedoch Entscheidungen in der Immobilienwirtschaft langfristiger Natur sind, kommt der Zukunftsorientiertheit und des damit verbundenen Risikos eine große Bedeutung zu. Die Entstehung von Immobilienzyklen kann nicht nur mit realen und monetären Fundamentaldaten (z. B. Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Zinsentwicklung) erklärt werden, sondern auch mit psychologischen Faktoren, wie beispielsweise Erwartungen und Einstellungen der Marktteilnehmer. Da mathematisch-statistische Prognoseverfahren diese Komponente nur unzureichend abbilden können, soll die Dissertation einen Beitrag zur Erforschung der Expertenbefragung als Prognoseinstrument darstellen. Ein weiterer Grund besteht darin, dass in der bisher veröffentlichten Fachliteratur der Expertenbefragung als Prognoseverfahren nur eine geringe oder gar keine Bedeutung beigemessen wurde. Ziel ist es herauszustellen, ob und unter welchen Voraussetzungen und Bedingungen Expertenbefragungen zur Prognose von Immobilienwerten geeignet sind und ob die Kombination der Ergebnisse der Expertenbefragungen mit den Ergebnissen mathematisch-statistischer Prognoseverfahren eine Erhöhung der Prognosegenauigkeit ermöglicht. Hierzu wird die zukünftige Entwicklung verschiedener Immobilienwerte für 2 bis 3 Jahre und für 5 Jahre durch Expertenumfragen und mit Hilfe ausgewählter mathematisch-statistischer Prognoseverfahren prognostiziert. Um die Güte der Expertenschätzungen beurteilen zu können, werden die Prognoseergebnisse mit der tatsächlichen Entwicklung und mit den Ergebnissen der mathematisch-statistischen Prognoseverfahren verglichen. In einer abschließenden Gegenüberstellung sollen Aussagen darüber getroffen werden, ob Expertenbefragungen für Prognosezwecke geeignet sind. Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt liegt dabei auch auf psychologischen Aspekten bzw. endogenen und exogenen Einflussgrößen, welche sich auf das Antwortverhalten der Experten auswirken können. Ziel ist es deshalb weiterhin, eine Handlungsempfehlung für die Durchführung von Expertenbefragungen - speziell für die Abgabe von mehrjährigen Trends und auch für Zwecke der Verkehrswertermittlung - zu geben.