地方稅捐稽徵機關績效之良窳攸關地方政府庫收，更直接影響地方經濟成長、資源配置效率與所得分配之公平；本文試圖採用能排除外在因素與隨機干擾之三階段產出導向資料包絡分析法（以下簡稱DEA），針對23個地方稅捐稽徵機關2004年迄2008年資料進行管理效率評估，再以隨機邊界分析法（以下簡稱SFA）分離外生因素及隨機干擾以調整各機關產出至相同基準後，再評估排除外在與隨機干擾因素的管理效率。 未考慮外生因素與隨機干擾的DEA效率評估結果顯示，有高達88.7%及82.6%的地方稅捐稽徵機關分別於技術效率及純技術效率上尚有改善空間。第二階段SFA估計結果顯示，土地移轉現值、機關內大專畢業以上員額之比例及員額平均年齡對管理效率皆有正向影響；而總統大選期間及有高鐵停靠站之縣市除對部分產出無顯著影響外，對管理效率之提升亦具優勢；然而，服務轄區土地面積與實徵淨額之效率呈負相關，卻與違章漏稅裁罰效率呈正相關；地方首長選舉期間除為避免清理欠稅招致民怨而降低技術效率外，對其他管理效率則皆呈正相關；又都市計畫面積占稽徵區域比例與地方稅實徵淨額之管理效率呈正相關，卻與欠稅清理效率呈負相關。調整後之DEA結果顯示各項效率值與調整前比較皆存在顯著差異，顯示排除外生因素與隨機干擾影響以避免效率值被錯估確有其必要性；但仍有高達93.05%及68.7%之地方稅捐稽徵機關分別於技術效率及純技術效率上存有改善空間；又多數稽徵機關處於規模報酬遞增階段，即產能過剩而造成資源浪費。另與財政部稽徵業務考核成績比較分析，在規模效率平均值排名方面，除臺南市外，甲組機關排名普遍優於乙組機關；但純技術平均效率值之排名卻有一半以上之甲組機關表現反而不如部分乙組受評單位；顯示甲、乙組之分類歷經多年仍沿襲舊有分組將使各機關未能於適合之群組中受考而錯估其績效。 基於上述實證研究結果，本文提出下列政策性建議： 一、建議逐期分階段調整人力及預算至最適規模，以善加運用資源降低產能過剩情形。 二、建議各機關應引用環保之共乘概念，加強政府機關間橫向溝通、聯繫與合作。 三、若情況允許，建議可不區分甲乙組針對全體地方稅捐稽徵機關進行考核。若人力、時間或其他情況不允許，建議研擬具體方案隨各機關規模改變而有重新分級之機制。 四、建議甲組機關亦可選擇純技術效率較佳之乙組機關作為觀摩學習之對象。 五、建議財政當局可考慮將外在因素之影響納入評核，以提升考核之信度與效度。 最後，臺灣自2010年底起將有部分縣市改制為直轄市，考核編組方式勢將有所變革，有待後續研究者追蹤探討；而改制後所引起之資源重分配亦可作為未來之研究議題。 / The Performance of Local Tax Bureaus is relevant to the revenue of Public Treasury, and even has direct impacts on local economic growth, efficiency of resource allocation and equity of income distribution. This paper attempts to use three-stage out-oriented DEA which can rule out the external factors and the statistical noises to evaluate the efficiency of 23 Local Tax Bureaus in Taiwan during the period of 2004 to 2008. After measuring slack variables of each Bureau in the first stage, the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model is used to separate the external factors from the statistical noises, and then adjust the output of each Bureau to the same benchmark. Finally, DEA is again used to evaluate the efficiency of 23 Local Tax Bureaus. The DEA efficiency evaluation results in the first stage show that up to 88.7% and 82.6% of the Local Tax Bureaus still have an ample room to improve their technical and pure technical efficiency. In the second stage, the SFA model estimates show that “the present value of land transfer”, “the proportion of post-graduates in the Bureaus” and “the average age of the staff” have positive effects on the efficiency. “The period of Presidential Election” and “the cities or counties that Taiwan High Speed Rail have set station up” have insignificant impact on part of the outputs, but still have the advantages to enhance the efficiency. However, “the expanse of land in service area” has a negative correlation with the efficiency of net taxation, but is positively related to the efficiency with the fine of illegal tax evasion. “The election period of Local County Executive” has a positive correlation with the efficiency except that tax arrears liquidation might reduce technical efficiency. “The ratio of urban-planed area to the tax levy regional” and the efficiency of net taxation are positively correlated, but negatively related to the efficiency of tax arrears liquidation. After excluding external factors and the statistical noises, the third-stage DEA evaluation results are significantly different from those in the first stage, indicating that it is necessary to exclude impacts of external factors and statistical noises in order to avoid the misjudged value of efficiency. There are still as high as 93.05 % and 68.7% of the Local Tax Bureaus have an ample space for improvement respectively on technical efficiency and pure technical efficiency. Most of the Tax Bureaus are at the increasing return of scale stage, implying that the surplus of capacity cause the waste of resources. Finally, compared with the performance evaluation held by Ministry of Finance, the empirical results in this study show that although the classification of Local Tax Bureaus has been adopt for many years, Bureaus’ performance evaluation results might be misjudged in the unsuitable group. Based on the above empirical results, this research attempts to propose the following policy suggestions: 1. It is recommended to adjust the phase of manpower and budget to the optimum scale for the best using of resources and to reduce inefficiency of excess capacity. 2. Enhancing horizontal communication among government agencies may improve the efficiency of Local Tax Bureaus. 3. If possible, it is recommended to evaluate Local Tax Bureaus without classification. If not, a mechanism of re-rating according to the scale change of Local Tax Bureaus may be needed. 4. It is proposed that Local Tax Bureaus of Group A can take lesson from those of Group B with better pure technical efficiency to learn from. 5. It is suggested that government authorities have to exclude the effect of external factors to improve the reliability and validity of performance evaluation. At the end of year 2010, several counties will be restructured in municipalities. The classification of Local Tax Bureaus for performance assessment must be changed. The reallocation of resources caused by restructuring may be used in future studies.

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本研究發展新的計量方法，運用隨機邊界法將單調性和曲度條件等性質納入迴歸模型，使用聯立迴歸模型進行估計，藉此讓係數估計值不易出現違反經濟理論的情況。 採用台灣2002年至2015年，51家商業銀行進行實證分析，發現本研究方法估計產出方向距離函數時，僅有5%以下的樣本點不符合單調和曲度等性質，用於估計產出面距離函數時，僅有2%以下的樣本點不符合。進一步探討台灣銀行業之非意欲產出--逾期放款--對估計技術效率的影響，顯示不考慮此非意欲產出造成整體銀行業、非金控本國銀行與外商銀行的技術效率被高估，而金控本國銀行的技術效率則被低估，此外，分析2007年金融風暴前後銀行業經營效率變化，顯示考慮非意欲產出銀行業經營效率顯著提升，然而，未考慮非意欲產出銀行業經營效率卻下降，兩者結果有著極大的差異。 / The aim of the paper is to develop a new approach, which is stochastic frontier analysis imposing monotonicity and curvature conditions, then using simultaneous regression model to estimate. By the approach, it can solve the problem of most of the coefficient estimates violating the economic theory. The study uses the data of 51 commercial banks in Taiwan from 2002 to 2015 to conduct the empirical analysis. It indicates that by output directional distance function, less than 5% sample points violate the monotonicity and curvature conditions; by output distance function, less than 2% sample points don’t obey the restricted conditions. Further, the paper discusses the effect of commercial banks’ undesirable output- non-performing loan- on estimating technical efficiency. The results show that ignoring the undesirable output cause the technical efficiency of overall banks, non-finance holding banks and foreign banks are overvalued, and the technical efficiency of finance holding banks are undervalued. Furthermore, analyze the change of business efficiency after financial crisis in 2007. It points out that using the model consider the undesirable output, the banks’ efficiency rises. However, using the model no consider the undesirable output, the banks’ efficiency decreases. There is an extremely conflict between two approach.

Methodologies designed to support new product development are receiving increasing interest in recent literature. A significant percentage of new product failure is attributed to a mismatch between designed product features and consumer liking. A variety of methodologies have been proposed and tested for consumer liking or preference prediction, ranging from statistical methodologies e.g. multiple linear regression (MLR) to non-statistical approaches e.g. artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), and belief rule-based (BRB) systems. BRB has been previously tested for consumer preference prediction and target setting in case studies from the beverages industry. Results have indicated a number of technical and conceptual advantages which BRB holds over the aforementioned alternative approaches. This thesis focuses on presenting further advantages and applications of the BRB methodology for consumer liking prediction. The features and advantages are selected in response to challenges raised by three addressed case studies. The first case study addresses a novel industry for BRB application: the fast moving consumer goods industry, the personal care sector. A series of challenges are tackled. Firstly, stepwise linear regression, principal component analysis and AutoEncoder are tested for predictors’ selection and data reduction. Secondly, an investigation is carried out to analyse the impact of employing complete distributions, instead of averages, for sensory attributes. Moreover, the effect of modelling instrumental measurement error is assessed. The second case study addresses a different product from the personal care sector. A bi-objective prescriptive approach for BRB model structure selection and validation is proposed and tested. Genetic Algorithms and Simulated Annealing are benchmarked against complete enumeration for searching the model structures. A novel criterion based on an adjusted Akaike Information Criterion is designed for identifying the optimal model structure from the Pareto frontier based on two objectives: model complexity and model fit. The third case study introduces yet another novel industry for BRB application: the pastry and confectionary specialties industry. A new prescriptive framework, for rule validation and random training set allocation, is designed and tested. In all case studies, the BRB methodology is compared with the most popular alternative approaches: MLR, ANN, and SVM. The results indicate that BRB outperforms these methodologies both conceptually and in terms of prediction accuracy.

Cette thèse s’intéresse d’une part aux effets macroéconomiques des régimes de change, et d’autre part, aux récentes évolutions sur la politique budgétaire et la décentralisation. La partie I met essentiellement l’accent sur l’interaction entre les régimes de change (RC) et la politique budgétaire, monétaire et fiscale. Tout d’abord, nous mettons en évidence que les RC peuvent avoir un effet stabilisateur sur la politique budgétaire (chapitre 1). Cependant, cet effet stabilisateur des RC n’est pas automatique mais dépendrait plutôt des conséquences d’une politique budgétaire laxiste. Le chapitre 2 s’intéresse quant à lui à la causalité entre RC et crises (bancaire/financière, de change et de dette) et remet en cause la vision bipolaire qui prétendait que les RC intermédiaires sont plus vulnérables aux crises que les solutions en coin (RC fixes/flexibles). Il ressort de notre analyse que les fondamentaux macroéconomiques (la volatilité du crédit au secteur privé, le financement du déficit, et le ratio dette sur PIB) jouent un rôle considérable. Le chapitre 3 met en évidence un lien entre les RC et la politique fiscale. Les pays à RC fixes montrent une plus grande dépendance aux recettes domestiques –telles que la TVA-, comparativement aux pays en change intermédiaires/flexibles pour compenser les pertes de recettes de seigneuriage (effet de substitution). De plus, ces pays avec RC fixes collectent plus de recettes domestiques en compensation de la perte de recettes douanières, suite à la libéralisation commerciale (effet de compétitivité). Dans les trois derniers chapitres (partie II), nous mettons le focus sur la politique budgétaire et les effets de la décentralisation. Le chapitre 4 révèle une relation non-linéaire entre la politique budgétaire et le cycle économique, qui dépend du niveau de la dette publique. Lorsque celle-ci dépasse un certain seuil (87%), la politique budgétaire perd toute propriété contra-cyclique. Nous montrons par ailleurs que l’effet disciplinaire ex-ante des règles budgétaires aide à restaurer la contra-cyclicité de la politique budgétaire. A travers le chapitre 5, nous montrons que la décentralisation budgétaire, dans un cadre politico-institutionnel sein et dépourvu de corruption, améliore l’offre de biens et services publics. Le chapitre 6 conclut que la décentralisation impacte positivement le solde structurel. Cependant une asymétrie entre la décentralisation des dépenses et celle des recettes accroit la dépendance des gouvernements locaux vis-à-vis du gouvernement central en termes de transferts, et amoindrirait considérablement à l’effet positif de la décentralisation. / This thesis explored, in two parts, the macroeconomic impacts of exchange rate regimes (ERR), as well as the recent developments in fiscal policy and fiscal decentralization. Part I has reconsidered the role of ERR and its interplay with fiscal, monetary and tax policy. The first result that emerges (Chapter 1) is that fixed ERR can serve as a credible policy tool for stabilizing fiscal policy. However, this stabilizing effect is conditional upon the inter-temporal distribution of the costs of loose fiscal policy. In assessing the linkage between ERR and crises (banking/financial, currency and debt), Chapter 2 evidenced that the bipolar view is no longer valid, and that, crisis proneness rather depends on the macroeconomic fundamentals (the volatility of private sector credit, the deficit-financing mechanism, and the debt-to-GDP ratio). In Chapter 3, we unveiled a strong relationship between ERR and tax policy. Countries with pegged regimes have greater reliance on domestic taxation -such as the VAT- to make up for the loss of seigniorage revenue (substitution effect). Moreover, peggers tend to collect more VAT revenue to offset the shortfall in cross border taxes following the trade liberalization reform (competitiveness effect). Part II discussed the cyclical response of fiscal policy in high debt periods, and focused on fiscal decentralization issues. In Chapter 4, we showed that the reaction of fiscal policy to the business cycle is non-linear and conditional to the level of public debt. When the debt-to-GDP ratio goes beyond a certain threshold (87%), fiscal policy loses its counter-cyclical properties. Further, we highlighted that carefully-designed fiscal rules help maintaining counter-cyclicality through an ex ante disciplinary effect. Chapters 5 and 6 analyzed the impact of fiscal decentralization on the efficiency of public service delivery and fiscal policy performance, respectively. Chapter 5 revealed that a sufficient level of expenditure decentralization, coupled with revenue decentralization, improves the efficiency of public service delivery. However, the political and institutional environment is critical for reaping decentralization-led benefits. Lastly, Chapter 6 concluded that fiscal decentralization has destabilizing effect by reducing the counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy. In addition, we found that decentralization strengthens the structural fiscal balance; however, vertical fiscal imbalances reduce the benefits of decentralization. It is therefore critical to limit asymmetries between expenditure and revenue decentralization, so as to reduce the transfer-dependency of local governments to the central level, and thus prevent decentralization from weakening the fiscal stance at the general government level.

Cette thèse étudie comment le taux de change effectif réel (TCER) et ses mesures associées (volatilité du TCER et désalignement du TCER) affectent la croissance de la productivité totale des facteurs (CPTF). Elle analyse également les canaux par lesquels le TCER et ses mesures associées agissent sur la productivité totale des facteurs (PTF). La première partie étudie comment le TCER lui-Même, d'une part, et la volatilité du TCER, d'autre part, influencent la productivité. Une analyse du lien entre le niveau du TCER et la PTF dans le chapitre 1 indique qu'une appréciation de taux de change cause une augmentation de la PTF. Mais cet impact est également non- inéaire: en-Dessous du seuil, le TCER influence négativement la productivité tandis qu'au-Dessus du seuil il agit positivement. Les résultats du chapitre 2 illustrent que la volatilité du TCER affecte négativement la CPTF. Nous avons également constaté que la volatilité du TCER agit sur PTF selon le niveau du développement financier. Pour les pays modérément financièrement développés, la volatilité du TCER réagit négativement sur la productivité et n'a aucun effet sur la productivité pour les niveaux très bas et très élevés du développement financier. La deuxième partie examine les canaux par lesquels le TCER et ses mesures associées influencent la productivité. Les résultats du chapitre 3 illustrent que la volatilité du TCER a un impact négatif élevé sur l'investissement. Ces résultats sont robustes dans les pays à faible revenu et les pays à revenu moyens, et en employant une mesure alternative de volatilité du TCER. Le chapitre 4 montre que le désalignement du taux de change réel et la volatilité du taux de change réel affectent négativement les exportations. Il démontre également que la volatilité du taux de change réel est plus nocive aux exportations que le désalignement. Ces résultats sont corroborés par des résultats sur des sous-Échantillons de pays à bas revenu et à revenu moyen. / This dissertation investigates how the real effective exchange rate (REER) and its associated asurements (REER volatility and REER misalignment) affect total factor productivity growth (TFPG). It also analyzes the channels through which the REER and its associated measurements act on total factor productivity (TFP). The first part studies how the REER itself, on the one hand, and the REER volatility, on the other hand, influence productivity. An analysis of the link between the level of REER and TFP in chapter 1 reveals that an exchange rate appreciation causes an increase of TFP. But this impact is also nonlinear: below the threshold, real exchange rate influences negatively productivity while above the threshold it acts positively. The results of chapter 2 illustrate that REER volatility affects negatively TFPG. We also found that REER volatility acts on TFP according to the level of financial development. For moderately financially developed countries, REER volatility reacts negatively on productivity and has no effect on productivity for very low and very high levels of financial development. The second part examines the channels through which the REER and its associated measurements influence productivity. The results of chapter 3 illustrate that the exchange rate volatility has a strong negative impact on investment. This outcome is robust in low income and middle income countries, and by using an alternative measurement of exchange rate volatility. Chapter 4 show that both real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility affect negatively exports. It also demonstrates that real exchange rate volatility is more harmful to exports than misalignment. These outcomes are corroborated by estimations on subsamples of Low- ncome and Middle-Income countries

Organizations specifically the airlines industry are increasingly facing the challenges of operational efficiency measurement. During the last years enormous attention has been given to the assessment and improvement of the performance of productive systems. However, literatures show that there are limitations of the existing models to measure efficiency uniformly and exhaustively across the airlines. The problems are due to lack of the technical efficiency measuring model which unifies and integrates different measuring models into a single model.Therefore, this thesis investigates assessment of the operational performance of world major airlines by employing integrated comparative models to address the above problems. In this study, technical efficiency is addressed among many performance issues by using three types of modes of performance measurement: a non parametric one, represented by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and; a parametric one, represented by Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) and the Balance Scorecard (BSC) which is a strategic management tools. Unlike most of the previous studies, this study integrates the BSC concepts into DEA and SFA model. To evaluate technical efficiency of major international airlines, the study use panel of unbalanced data for the year 2007-2014 to make integrated comparative analysis. The research project incorporates seven leading variables and four lagging variables taken from BSC concept to implement into the DEA and SFA. All the three models of performance measurements have their own strength and limitation if they are used alone. But if the three models are integrated and combined together, they would yield better comparative and quality of efficiency assessment. Therefore, the study primarily developed a model beginning from the theoretical framework assumption into building of a unified comparative model of integrated comparative operational efficiency assessment of airlines. The research design and methodology uses secondary data collection i.e. annual reports and business reports of airlines which are collected from the airlines own website. The huge amount of financial and operational data cannot be collected by using primary data collection method as it would make it practically impossible and expensive. So by employing secondary data collection method saves time, money and a panel data can be accessed and generated easily. Hence, from 100 world major airlines population which are ranked by revenue, simple random sampling is used to select 80 samples airlines for this study. First, the BSC identifies the input and output variables. Next, the DEA model ranks the efficiency measurement, identifies the slack variables and benchmarks the airlines. Third, the SFA model identifies technical efficiency, the random error and technical inefficiency. Finally, the technical efficiency estimates obtained from the two techniques are analyzed comparatively. The research makes further analysis of particular case of the Ethiopian Airlines in relation to the most efficient and inefficient airlines and in comparison of the regional analysis. After extensive tests have been conducted, ‘Balanced Frontier Envelopment’ model is developed. According to this model, it is a paramount to measure efficiency with combining the strength of three models together and gives better results than the previous one or two combined models. The developed and integrated strategic model enhances measuring of the operating technical efficiency of airlines. This model benefit the airlines industry in many ways such as minimizing the cost and maximizing profit through managing technical efficiency which lead into the success of the airlines. From the model perspective, therefore, result of DEA model is much higher than the result of SFA model. DEA model is easier to manipulate than the SFA model because the former does not need the functional form while the later requires a functional form. Furthermore, according to the efficiency finding of the study, first, the European regional airlines are relatively more efficient than the rest of regions in the world. Second, the North America regional airlines are the second more efficient regional airlines in the world. Third, the Ethiopian airlines are the most efficient in Africa when we compare among Egyptair, Kenyan Airways and South African Airways. Fourth, high revenue does not necessarily leads to the technical efficiency of the firm. / Business Management / D.B.L. (Business Leadership)