Thesis (Ph.D. (Statistics)) -- University of Limpopo, 2022 / Using the ARFIMA (autoregressive and fractionally integrated moving aver age) model extended with sGARCH (standard generalised autoregressive con ditional heteroscedasticity) and ’gjrGARCH (Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle gen eralised autoregressive conditional heteroscedascity) innovations, fractional in tegration approach and state space model, this study has empirically examined persistency of inflation dynamics of Ghana and South Africa, the only two coun tries in Sub-Saharan Africa with Inflation Targeting (IT) monetary policy. The first part of the analysis employed monthly CPI (Consumer Price Index) in flation series for the period January 1971 to October 2014 obtained from the Bank of Ghana (BoG), and for the period January 1995 to December 2014 ob tained from Statistics South Africa. The second part involves the estimation of threshold effect of inflation on economic growth using annual data obtained from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) database for the period 1981 to 2014, for both countries. Results from the study showed that structural breaks, long memory and non linearities (or regime shifts) are largely responsible for inflation persistence, hence the ever-changing nature of inflation rates of Ghana and South Africa. ARFIMA(3,0.35,1)-‘gjrGARCH(1,1) under Generalised Error Distribution (GED) and ARFIMA(3,0.50,1)-‘gjrGARCH(1,1) under Student-t Distribution (STD) mod els provided the best fit for persistence in the conditional mean (or level) of CPI for Ghana and South Africa, respectively. The results from these models pro vided evidence of time-varying conditional mean and volatility in CPI inflation rates of both countries. The two models also revealed an asymmetric effect of inflationary shocks, where negative shocks appear to have greater impact than positive shocks, in terms of persistence on the conditional mean with time varying volatility. This thesis proposes a model that combines fractional integration with non linear deterministic terms based on the Chebyshev polynomials in time for the analysis of CPI inflation rates of Ghana and South Africa. We tested for non-linear deterministic terms in the context of fractional integration and esti mated the fractional differencing parameters, d to be 1.11 and 1.32 respectively, for the Ghanaian and the South African inflation rates, but the non-linear trends were found to be statistically insignificant in the two series. New ev idence from this thesis depicts that inflation rate of Ghana is highly persistent and non-mean reverting, with an estimated fractional differencing parameter, d > 1.0, and will therefore require some policy action to steer inflation back to stability. However, the South African inflation series was found to be a cyclical process with an order of integration estimated to be d = 0.7, depicting mean reversion, with the length of the cycles approximated to last for 80 months. Finally, the thesis incorporated structural breaks, long memory, non-linearity, and some explanatory variables into a state space model and estimated the threshold effect of inflation on economic growth. The empirical results suggest that inflation below the estimated levels of 9% and 6% for Ghana and South Africa respectively, will be conducive for economic growth. The policy implications of these results for both countries are as follows. First, both series had similar properties responsible for inducing inflation persistence such as structural breaks, non-linearities, long memory and asymmetric re sponse to negatives shocks - but with varied degrees of magnitude. For both countries, the conditional mean and unobserved components such as volatility for both countries were found to be time-varying. This thesis, therefore, recom mends to the BoG and the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) - responsible for monetary policies, and the Finance Ministers of both governments - respon sible for fiscal policies, to take the above-mentioned properties into account in the formulation of their monetary policies. Second, the thesis recommends that the BoG and the SARB consolidate the IT policy, since keeping inflation below the targets set of 9% and 6%, respectively for Ghana and South Africa, will boost economic growth. Third, policymakers could also design measures (monetary and fiscal policies) such as increase in interest rates, credit control, and reduction of unnecessary expenditure, among others, to control inflation due to its adverse effects on market volatility. Even though an increase in interest rates could assist in curtailing the recent and anticipated increase in inflation rates in both countries, where targets have been missed by Ghana and South Africa, it will also be prudent to legislate monetary policies around demand-supply side since the problem of both coun tries appears to be more of a structuralist than a monetarist. It is, therefore, recommended that both countries tighten the IT monetary policy in order to re duce inflation persistence. This will eventually impact on poverty and income distribution with ramifications for economic growth and/or development. The fourth implication of these results is that governments and central banks should be mindful of the actions and decisions they take, in the sense that unguarded decisions and unnecessary alarms could raise uncertainties in the economy, which could, in turn, affect the future trajectory of inflation. Finally, the thesis recommends that governments of both countries strengthen the pri vate sector, which is the engine of growth. For small and open economies such as Ghana and South Africa, this will grow the economy through job creation and restore investor confidence. / National Research Foundation (NRF), Department of Science and Technology (DST), Telkom’s Tertiary Education Support Programme (TESP) and the NRF-DST Centre of Excellence for Mathematical and Statistical Sciences (CoE-MaSS)

<p>The economic development and industrialization that has taken place in many parts of the world during the past century has brought about a huge increase in economic welfare. During this process, it has repeatedly been debated whether the gains from economic development are shared by everyone or just a few. In the field of economics, vast research has been conducted on this particular subject ever since the 1950’s. The most famous contribution might be said to be Simon Kuznets article, Growth and Income Inequality from 1955 and the ”inverted U”-hypothesis that was formulated on the basis of that article. The essence of the hypothesis is that a country, during its development, moves from agricultural to industrial production. At first, income inequality increases and then, at the end of the process, decreases.</p><p>The aim of this paper has been to investigate the relationship between income distribution and economic development in a particular region, namely the countries of the former Soviet Union, during 1992-2003. Also, we have tested whether Kuznets theory and the “inverted U”-hypothesis hold true for our sample. The investigations method is a survey, which uses secondary data collected from the World Bank’s database of World Development Indicators. Regression-analysis has been employed to conduct cross-sections between 20 countries over 4 periods in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The number of observations equals to 62. The variables that we use are: the Gini index, GDP per capita and the agricultural sector’s share of GDP.</p><p>The results of the regression do not indicate any resemblance to the pattern of the “inverted U”-hypothesis. The curve we get is that of a “positive U”. Countries with high GDP per capita as well as countries with low GDP per capita have high income inequality. Countries with mediate GDP per capita levels have low income inequality. Our analysis concludes that the countries in our sample might have had a very unique economic development following the fall of the Soviet Union. Only 7 countries partly follow the Kuznets theory if tested individually. Since these seven countries seem to have a reversed development with increasing agricultural sector and the remainder of the countries show increasing income inequality, we reject the “inverted U”-hypothesis and question the ability of Kuznets’ theory to explain income distribution for our sample.</p>

The economic development and industrialization that has taken place in many parts of the world during the past century has brought about a huge increase in economic welfare. During this process, it has repeatedly been debated whether the gains from economic development are shared by everyone or just a few. In the field of economics, vast research has been conducted on this particular subject ever since the 1950’s. The most famous contribution might be said to be Simon Kuznets article, Growth and Income Inequality from 1955 and the ”inverted U”-hypothesis that was formulated on the basis of that article. The essence of the hypothesis is that a country, during its development, moves from agricultural to industrial production. At first, income inequality increases and then, at the end of the process, decreases. The aim of this paper has been to investigate the relationship between income distribution and economic development in a particular region, namely the countries of the former Soviet Union, during 1992-2003. Also, we have tested whether Kuznets theory and the “inverted U”-hypothesis hold true for our sample. The investigations method is a survey, which uses secondary data collected from the World Bank’s database of World Development Indicators. Regression-analysis has been employed to conduct cross-sections between 20 countries over 4 periods in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. The number of observations equals to 62. The variables that we use are: the Gini index, GDP per capita and the agricultural sector’s share of GDP. The results of the regression do not indicate any resemblance to the pattern of the “inverted U”-hypothesis. The curve we get is that of a “positive U”. Countries with high GDP per capita as well as countries with low GDP per capita have high income inequality. Countries with mediate GDP per capita levels have low income inequality. Our analysis concludes that the countries in our sample might have had a very unique economic development following the fall of the Soviet Union. Only 7 countries partly follow the Kuznets theory if tested individually. Since these seven countries seem to have a reversed development with increasing agricultural sector and the remainder of the countries show increasing income inequality, we reject the “inverted U”-hypothesis and question the ability of Kuznets’ theory to explain income distribution for our sample.

Den Europeiska Unionen är en mångfacetterad samling länder med ett brett spektra av historisk bakgrund, geografisk placering och ekonomiska förhållanden. I denna uppsats undersöks huruvida en gemensam europeisk identitet kan bidra till en ökad tillit från medborgarna i unionen till EU som institution. Uppsatsens teoretiska underlag består av tidigare forskning. Denna forskning skapar ett fundament för den statistiska modell som används för att besvara frågeställningen. Med hjälp av data samlad ur bland annat Eurobarometerrapporter tar uppsatsen, via multipel linjär regression, fram en modell som förklarar förhållandet mellan den beroende variabeln ”förtroende för EU” och de oberoende variablerna ”uppfattning av gemensam europeisk identitet”, ”avstånd till Bryssel”, ”BNP per capita” och ”antal år som medlem i EU”. Resultatet visar en koppling mellan en högre grad av upplevd gemensam identitet hos medborgarna i ett land och ett ökat förtroende för EU. Vidare visar modellen ett negativt samband mellan förtroendet för EU och ett stigande värde på var och en av de övriga förklaringsvariablerna. Med andra ord: ju längre avstånd till Bryssel, ju högre BNP per capita och ju längre medlemskap i unionen desto lägre förtroende känner den genomsnittlige medborgaren för EU. / The European Union is a diverse group of countries characterized by a wide spectra of historical background, geographical location and economic situation. The topic of this essay is whether a common European identity can contribute to an increased level of trust from the citizens towards the EU as an institution. Previous research constitute the theoretical basis of the essay. Using this research, I create the foundation for the statistical model used to answer the question at issue. Using multiple linear regression on data gathered from Eurobarometer reports and other sources, I create a statistical model that explains the relationship between the dependent variable “trust in EU” and the independent variables “feeling of being an EU-citizen”, “distance to Brussels”, “BNP per capita” and “number of years as member of EU”. The results shows a connection between a higher level of feeling of being an EU-citizen and a higher level of trust in EU. Moreover, the model shows a negative connection between trust in EU and an increasing value on each of the other independent variables. In other words: the further away the average citizen is from Brussels, the higher level of BNP per capita her country has and the longer her country has been a member of the EU, the lower trust she has in the EU.

This thesis is focused on the description and assessment of the relationships between human, institutional and social capital and the assessment of the effects of capital types on economic performance. After the operationalization of capital types and economic performance that was based on literature research, the relationships were analysed using the example of European regions (specifically NUTS 2). The analysis is focused on the regional differentiation of capital types and economic maturity. It also monitors the relationships between capital types and economic performance. This thesis is based on the latest statistical data from offices and surveys that deal with the quality of the institutional environment or the characteristics of social capital. The characteristics of capital types are shown in maps. For the statistical data analysis, we used factor, correlation and regressive analysis. Keywords: human, social and institutional capital, economic performance, GDP per capita, regional differentiation, European regions NUTS 2

Denna forskningsstudies syfte är att undersöka sambandet mellan internationell handel och ekonomisk tillväxt och effekten som internationell handel har på ekonomisk tillväxt i afrikanska länder söder om Saharaöknen (Subsahariska Afrika). Majoriteten av tidigare studier och forskning inom detta område hävdar att det finns en positivt korrelation mellan dessa två variabler men ändå så finns det fortfarande vissa som ifrågasätter hur pass stor påverkan dessa två variabler egentligen har, om den effekten verkligen är tillräckligt signifikant för att anses vara betydelsefullt samt viktig. Informationen och datan som använts i denna studie är tagna från World Bank Group (Världsbanken), Human Development Reports och Fraser Institute. Studiens teoretiska referensram använder sig av tillväxtteorier, vilket bestod av Solowmodellen, endogen tillväxtteori och institutionell teori samt handelsteorier, som bestod av den Ricardianska modellen och Heckscher-Ohlin modellen för att bättre förklara konceptet av ekonomisk tillväxt och hur internationell handel kan komma att påverka processen till att uppnå ekonomisk tillväxt. Inom denna undersökning utfördes en panel-data studie med stöd av en regressionsanalys för att kunna mäta korrelationen mellan internationell handel och ekonomisk tillväxt. Den beroende variabeln för denna forskningsstudie var ekonomisk tillväxt i form av den årliga BNP per capita-tillväxten medan de oberoende variablerna innehöll bland annat internationell handel, utbildning, kapital, befolkningstillväxt, arbetskraft, korruption och ekonomisk frihet. Dessutom inkluderar undersökningen 36 utav de totala 48 möjliga länder i Subsahariska Afrika och är avgränsad till en tioårsperiod mellan 2009–2019. Slutresultatet av denna studies forskning visar att det finns ett signifikant positivt korrelation mellan ekonomisk tillväxt och internationell handel och kommer då fram till slutsatsen att internationell handel faktiskt har en viktig effekt/påverkan och är därför nödvändig för att uppnå ekonomisk tillväxt. / The purpose of this research study is to examine the relationship between international trade and economic growth and the effect that international trade has on economic growth in sub-Saharan African countries (Sub-Saharan Africa). The majority of previous studies and research in this area claim that there is a positive correlation between these two variables, yet there are still some who question how much these two variables actually have influenced each other and if that effect is really significant enough to be considered significant as well as important. The information and data used in this study are taken from the World Bank Group, Human Development Reports and Fraser Institute. The study's theoretical framework uses growth theories, which consisted of the Solow model and endogenous growth theory, and trade theories, which consisted of the Ricardian model, the Heckscher-Ohlin model, and institutional theory to better explain the concept of economic growth and how international trade can affect the process of achieving economic growth. Within this research, a panel dataset study was carried out with the support of a regression analysis in order to measure the correlation between international trade and economic growth. The dependent variable for this research study was economic growth in the form of annual GDP per capita growth, while the independent variables included international trade, education, capital, population growth, labor force, corruption and economic freedom. Additionally, the study includes thirty-six out of a total of forty-eight possible countries in sub-Saharan Africa and is limited to a ten-year period between 2009-2019. The final result of this study's research shows that there is a significant positive correlation between economic growth and international trade and concludes that international trade actually has a very important effect/impact and is essential to achieving economic growth.

La presente investigación tiene como objetivo principal analizar los factores que influyeron en el desarrollo de la demanda turística de los principales países para el Perú, durante el periodo 1996-2018. El objetivo principal es confirmar si el PBI per cápita de los turistas internacionales, la apertura comercial y el tipo de cambio real, influyen positivamente en los turistas internacionales al momento de realizar un viaje al Perú. Para ello se ha realizado un análisis de los principales países que representan la mayor demanda turística para el Perú, los cuales representan más del 60%. Asimismo, se ha usado un modelo de data panel dinámico; sometiéndose el mismo a pruebas previas de verificación de datos, para dar veracidad al modelo. El presente trabajo de investigación posee un enfoque cuantitativo, basado en información de fuentes secundarias. Por otra parte, como forma complementaria, se realizaron entrevistas a expertos en el turismo para poder tener un panorama más amplio sobre el tema y así realizar un trabajo más enriquecedor. Según los resultados obtenidos del modelo, se evidencia que existe una relación estructural obtenida, lo cual brinda una relación positiva y estadísticamente significativa entre las variables explicativas PBI per cápita y apertura comercial. Finalmente, la variable tipo de cambio real si bien es cierto no constituye una variables explicativa, si adopta al modelo en su rol de forma logarítmica como una variable determinística, es decir es excluida de las elasticidades a largo plazo pero cumple su rol de establecer tendencia que siguen las demás variables. / The main objective of this research is to analyze the factors that influenced the development of tourism demand in the main countries for Peru during the period 1996-2018. The main objective is to confirm whether the GDP per capita of international tourists, trade opening and the real exchange rate, positively influence international tourists when making a trip to Peru. To this end, an analysis has been carried out of the main countries representing the highest tourism demand for Peru, which represent more than 60 %. A dynamic data panel model has also been used; it is submitted to previous data verification tests to give the model accuracy. This research has a quantitative approach, based on information from secondary sources. Moreover, as a complementary form, interviews were conducted with tourism experts in order to have a broader picture on the subject and thus to carry out a more enriching work. According to the results obtained from the model, it is evident that there is a structural relationship obtained, which provides a positive and statistically significant relationship between the explanatory variables GDP per capita and trade opening. Finally, the real exchange rate variable while true does not constitute an explanatory variable, if it adopts the model in its role logarithmically as a deterministic variable, that is, it is excluded from long-term elasticities but fulfills its role in establishing trends that follow the other variables. / Tesis