I denna uppsats testar jag kausalitet mellan marknadsskapande institutioner och tillväxtrelaterade variabler samt omvänt. Detta görs på en panel bestående av 15 länder i Central- och Östeuropa (CEE) under perioden mellan år 1996 och 2019. Metoden bygger på test för Granger-kausalitet i paneldata, SY-GMM med faktoriserade instrument och kvantilregression. Resultaten indikerar svagt på en utbytesrelation men är inte robust och slutsatser är därför att kausalitet ej kan påvisas i någon riktning. AI har använts för att extrahera test för unit root och sätta asterisker på regressionskoefficienterna. / In this thesis I apply methods for panel data analysis in order to test the causal relationship between market engaging instituions and economic growth. The panel consists of data gathered from multiple institutional indices and covers 15 countries in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) between the years 1996 and 2019. The methods include panel Granger-causality tests, SY-GMM with factorized instruments and panel quantile regression. The findings are inconclusive but suggests a feedback relation between institutional measures and growth related variables. The conclusion however, is that causality can not be indentified in any direction. AI has been used to extract p-values from tests for unit root and to add asterisks to the regression coefficients.

本篇論文在結構性時間序列模型基礎下，將中國大陸29省市自治區1978-2005年實質人均GDP，拆解出其長期趨勢變動軌跡中的水準值與斜率值，對照傳統上直接利用實質所得數據，以動態縱橫資料方法進行經濟成長條件收斂假說的檢定。本文特色在於加入潛在GDP長期趨勢項的水準值和斜率值，並利用內生解釋變數落後項動態分析。除可驗證隨著時間經過，中國相對貧窮省區是否終將逐漸趕上相對富有省份所得水準外，其次，根據GDP趨勢項一階與二階條件的收斂與否，可進而確認實質GDP收斂的本質。 我們發現，實質人均GDP收斂的本質關鍵在於潛在趨勢水準收斂，潛在GDP趨勢斜率的成長率將左右區域間實質所得收斂速度。大部分樣本中，擴大的Solow模型或考慮不同經濟開放程度因素下的內生成長模型，支持條件收斂假說，而後者設算出的收斂係數明顯較為低。此外，考慮採用Arellano and Bond(1991)的the first difference GMM估計式可能存在弱工具性問題(a weak instruments problem)，以Blundell and Bond(1998)發展出的the system GMM估計式，作為探討初始所得與經濟成長收斂的關係應是較為適合的方法。 / This research examines the economic growth conditional convergence hypothesis. Using the data of 29 provinces in Mainland China between 1978 and 2005, this study applied the structural time series model to deconstruct the provinces’ real GDP per capita into two parts - the level and the slope of trend movement. The characteristics of this paper are to include the level and the slope of trend of potential GDP and to consider the lagged dependent variables into the panel data. This study intends to validate whether the income level of relatively poor provinces will gradually catch up that of the relatively affluent provinces in Mainland China eventually. In addition, this study, based on the convergence or divergence in the first-order and second-order conditions of GDP tendency, will confirm the essence of the convergence in real GDP. The findings are that the essential key of the convergence in real GDP per capita is the convergence of the potential level of GDP. The growth of potential GDP tendency slope would affect the converging speed of real income in regions. The testing results of either the augmented Solow model or the endogenous growth model which considered different economic opening degrees both support the conditional convergence hypothesis in most sample sets, while the estimated convergence coefficients of the later are significantly lower than those of the former. In addition, considering the possible weak instruments problem in the first difference GMM estimator developed by Arellano and Bond (1991), the system GMM developed by Blundell and Bond (1998) should be a more suitable way to observe the relation between initial income level and economic growth convergence.

The significant change of the banking business models is easily observable in the current banking industry. Banks are forced to find additional source of income besides the one from traditional activities and thus the non-interest income is growing in importance. One of the reasons behind is that the banks need to recover from severe impacts of financial crisis in 2008-2010 and they want to adapt to the environment of low interest rates which has been occurring in the market since 2011. In this thesis, we analyze the presence of direct effect of non-interest income (proxied by fee income) on banks' performance using data of 220 commercial and investment banks from U.S. and EU-28 countries over the period of 2007-2014. Using System Generalized Methods of Moment, the direct effect was not detected. However, we conclude that economy with low inflation rate and growing gross domestic product improves the banks' profitability, as well as high capitalization and operating and credit quality efficiency. Furthermore, we found out that the volatility of the non-interest income has increased earlier than the crisis in 2008-2010 and it has been achieving almost continuous level till 2011 when it started decreasing again. Thus the hypothesis about relationship between volatility and financial crisis was rejected.

L’objectif de cette thèse est d’analyser l’effet de la globalisation sur la dynamique de l’inflation et sur la politique monétaire dans un monde de globalisation. Cette thèse porte 3 chapitres :Dans le premier chapitre, nous nous intéressons à l’impact de la globalisation financière sur le comportement du ciblage d’inflation dans les pays émergents, avec une attention particulière portée au taux de change : la Banque centrale répond-elle aux mouvements du taux de change ? Nous nous sommes basés sur des données trimestrielles de six pays émergents qui pratiquent la politique de ciblage d’inflation, depuis la date de l’adoption de cette dernière, jusqu’au dernier trimestre 2009 (2009 Q4). L’étude se base sur un modèle de petite économie ouverte néo-Keynésien à la Gali et Monacelli (2005). Nous utilisons un estimateur GMM à équations multiples pour analyser la relation. Les résultats nous montrent que la réponse de la Banque Centrale au taux de change est statistiquement significatif dans le cas du Brésil, du Chili, du Mexique et de la Thaïlande. En revanche, elle ne l’est pas pour la Corée ni pour la République Tchèque. Théoriquement, le résultat ne devrait pas être significatif même avec un ciblage d’inflation flexible où la banque centrale répond aux écarts d’inflation et de production.Nous pensons que les caractéristiques particulières des pays émergents, telles que la peur du flottement “fear of floating”, le manque de développement du système financier ainsi qu’un manque de crédibilité de la banque centrale, expliquent cette préoccupation des banque centrales pour les variations de change. Dans le deuxième chapitre, nous étudions d’une façon empirique l’importance relative des canaux de transmission de la politique monétaire pour le Brésil, le Chili et la Corée. Cette partie se base sur des données mensuelles depuis l’adoption du ciblage d’inflation jusqu’à décembre 2009 (2009 M12). Nous utilisons un modèle SVAR, en incorporant les principaux canaux de transmission monétaire simultanément au lieu de les considérer séparément. Les résultats empiriques indiquent que le canal de taux de change ainsi que canal du prix des actifs ont une importance relativement plus élevée que le canal du taux d’intérêt traditionnel ou le canal du crédit pour la production industrielle. Les résultats sont très différents dans le cas de l’inflation, à l’exception de la Corée. Le classement élevé canal du taux de change et du canal du prix des actifs correspondent aux résultats de Gudmundsson (2007) : le canal du taux de change pourrait avoir pris une importance grandissante avec la développement de la globalisation financière.Dans le troisième chapitre, nous étudions empiriquement le rôle de l’ouverture - réelle et financière - sur la dynamique de l’inflation au Brésil, Chile en Corée du Sud. L’étude se base sur des données mensuelles, depuis l’adoption du ciblage d’inflation jusqu’à décembre 2009. Dans ce dernier chapitre, nous utilisons méthode de moments généralisée (GMM). Le ratio Importation sur PIB est considéré comme étant l’indicateur de l’ouverture réelle. En ce qui concerne l’ouverture financière, nous considérons alternativement l’indice de Chinn et Ito (KAOPEN) mesurant le degré de libéralisation des opérations sur le compte financier, et l’indicateur proposé per Lane et Milesi-Ferreti (2009).Nous concluons dans ce chapitre qu’il existe en général une relation positive entre l’ouverture réelle et l’inflation. En ce qui concerne l’ouverture financière, les résultats sont moins tranchés et dépendent largement de l’indicateur utilisé pour mesurer l’ouverture financière. / The aim of this thesis is to analyze the impact of globalization on the dynamics of inflation and monetary policy in a globalized world. It consists of three essays.In the first essay we investigate the impact of financial globalization on the behaviour of inflation targeting emerging market economies with respect to exchange rate – Do central banks respond to exchange rate movements or not? We use quarterly data for six emerging market inflation targeting economies from the date of their inflation targeting adoption to 2009 Q4. The chapter uses small open economy new Keynesian model à la Gali and Monacelli (2005), and employs multi-equation GMM technique to investigate the relationship. We find that the response of central bank to the exchange rate in case of Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Thailand is statistically significant while insignificant for Korea and Czech Republic. Theoretically, it should not be so as even under flexible inflation targeting central bank responds to inflation deviation and output gap; we think that the peculiar characteristics of emerging markets, like fear of floating, weak financial system and low level of central bank credibility make exchange rate important for these economies. In the second essay we investigate empirically the relative importance of monetary transmission channels for Brazil, Chile and Korea. This chapter uses monthly data from the inception of inflation targeting regime to 2009 M12. We use a SVAR model incorporating the main monetary transmission channels combined together instead of individual channels in isolation. The empirical results indicate that the exchange rate channel and the share price channel have higher relative importance than the traditional interest rate and credit channel for industrial production. The results are not much different in case of inflation, except for Korea. The high ranking of exchange rate and share price channel is in line with the results by Gudmundsson (2007), which finds that exchange rate channel might have overburdened in the wake of financial globalization.In the third chapter we investigate empirically the role of openness – real and financial – on the inflation dynamics of Brazil, Chile and Korea. The chapter uses monthly data from the inception of inflation targeting regime to the end month of 2009. In this chapter we employ the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique. We use imports to GDP ratio as an indicator for real openness whereas Chinn and Ito index (KAOPEN) and total assets plus total liabilities to GDP ratio form the data set of Lane and Milesi-Ferretti are two proxies for financial openness. The chapter concludes that there exists, generally, a positive relationship between real openness and inflation. However, in case of financial globalization the results are inconclusive as they are sensitive to measurement method of financial globalization.

O consenso entre os organismos internacionais de cooperação para o comércio e para o desenvolvimento econômico está em reconhecer na capacidade de inovar a principal fonte para a promoção da produtividade nas organizações. Parte do esforço brasileiro de construção e desenvolvimento de um sistema nacional de inovação constituiu-se na criação de programas de incentivos fiscais, como forma de fazer avançar os investimentos em Pesquisa, Desenvolvimento & Inovação - P&D&I, provocando o setor privado a participar mais intensamente do processo de financiamento do desenvolvimento tecnológico. Uma década após a implementação do principal programa de incentivo fiscal à inovação no Brasil (Lei nº 11.196/05), é mister verificar se tais incentivos foram capazes de atingir os seus objetivos. A presente tese visa a avaliar: (i) qual a repercussão sobre os dispêndios com P&D&I da opção pela utilização dos incentivos fiscais concedidos pela Lei do Bem e (ii) quanto da renúncia fiscal, ou seja, dos créditos recebidos pelas empresas participantes deste programa, retornou em termos de investimentos em P&D&I ao longo do tempo. A metodologia empregada, propõe a estimação de um modelo empírico para os dispêndios em P&D&I, em que estes são explicados ora pela opção da empresa por utilizar os incentivos fiscais da Lei do Bem ora pela renúncia fiscal decorrente da utilização do mesmo programa, além de um conjunto de variáveis de controle associado às restrições de financiamento. Os testes estatísticos foram conduzidos para o agregado das companhias de capital aberto, registradas na BM&FBOVESPA em 2013, relativamente a seus desempenhos no período de 2008 a 2013. Os resultados, para dados em painel dinâmico, foram obtidos a partir do modelo GMM-System e apontam que a decisão de utilizar os incentivos fiscais da Lei do Bem está associada a um aumento nos dispêndios com P&D&I, ao longo do tempo. Assim sendo, para cada ponto percentual de aumento na propensão das companhias em optar pelo uso da Lei do Bem espera-se de 0,65 a 0,85 pontos percentuais de aumento em seus dispêndios com P&D&I. Por outro lado, o aumento de um ponto percentual na renúncia fiscal gera uma expectativa de aumento nos dispêndios com P&D&I das companhias, que pode variar de 0,26 a 0,40 pontos percentuais, ao longo do tempo / The consensus among international cooperation agencies for trade and economic development lies in recognizing in the ability to innovate the main source for promoting productivity in organizations. The Brazilian effort of construction and development of a national innovation system constituted the creation of tax incentive programs as a way to advance investments in Research, Development & Innovation - R&D&I, causing the private sector to participate more intensely financing process of technological development. A decade after the implementation of major tax incentive program for innovation in Brazil (Law nº. 11.196/05), it is necessary to verify that such incentives were able to achieve their goals. The present thesis aims at evaluating: (i) the impact on R&D&I expenditures of the option to use the tax incentives granted by the \"Lei do Bem\" and (ii) how much of tax waiver, that is to say, of the credits received by companies participating in this program, has returned in terms of R&D&I investments over time. The methodology to be used proposes the estimation of an empirical model for R&D&I expenditure, which are explained either by the company\'s option to use tax incentives of the \"Lei do Bem\" or by tax credits obtained due to the use of tax incentives program, in addition to a set of control variables associated with financing constraints. The statistical tests were conducted to the group of publicly traded companies listed on the BM & FBOVESPA in 2013, for their performances in the period 2008 to 2013. The results for the dynamic panel data were obtained from the GMM-System model and indicate that the decision to use the \"Lei do Bem\" tax incentives is associated with an increase in R&D&I expenditures over time. So that for each percentage point of increase in the propensity of companies to opt for the use of the \"Lei do Bem\", 0.65 to 0.85 percentage points of increase in R&D&I expenditures is expected. On the other hand, the increase of one percentage point in the tax waiver generates an expectation of increase in the R&D&I expenses of the companies, which can vary from 0.26 to 0.40 percentage points, over time

La présente thèse tente de savoir s’il est opportun pour les pays en développement les moins avancés de s’engager davantage dans le processus de globalisation financière pour promouvoir leur croissance, et si ce processus influence les effets des instabilités, financière et monétaire, sur cette dernière. A cette fin, la thèse se déroule en trois parties. Avant d’examiner le cadre théorique de la globalisation financière, la première partie esquisse sa genèse avec en arrière-fond la recherche d’une réponse au problème de sa régulation. La deuxième partie s’intéresse à la littérature sur les effets de la globalisation financière sur la croissance, afin d’en tirer les enseignements pour une étude de 72 pays en développement à revenu bas de 1972 à 2011. La troisième partie se focalise sur les impacts de la globalisation financière et des deux instabilités considérées isolément, puis en interaction avec la globalisation sur la croissance à travers deux études empiriques basées sur le même cadre spatio-temporel que l’étude précédente. Ces dernières sont précédées par une revue des relations entre la globalisation financière, l’instabilité financière puis monétaire et la croissance, avec une analyse théorique de l’instabilité financière. Il en ressort que les instabilités, financière et monétaire, ont des effets négatifs sur la croissance, tandis que la globalisation financière, et en particulier la globalisation par l’investissement contrairement à celle par l’endettement, promeut les bienfaits des politiques économiques et du commerce extérieur, en plus de son effet positif direct sur la croissance même en présence des deux instabilités dont elle diminue les effets négatifs. / This thesis examines whether or not it is beneficial for least developed countries to engage more in the process of financial globalization in pursuit of their economic growth, and if this process influences the effects of financial and monetary instability on the latter. This thesis is divided into three parts. Before examining the theoretical framework of financial globalization, the first part sketches its genesis on a background of the research for an answer to the problem of its regulation. The second part focuses on the literature on the impact of financial globalization on growth. This is done in order to draw lessons for the establishment of a study covering 72 low-income developing countries over the period 1972-2011. The third part centers on the impact on economic growth of financial globalization and the two aforementioned types of instability, discussed both separately and in conjunction. Evidence is provided by two empirical studies based on the same spatio-temporal framework as the previous one. These studies are preceded by a review of the literature on the relationship between financial globalization, financial and then monetary instability and growth, in addition to a theoretical analysis of financial instability. This illustrates that financial and monetary instability have negative effects on growth, while financial globalization and in particular investment-globalization, unlike indebtedness-globalization, promotes the benefits of macroeconomic policies and international trade. This can be find in addition to its direct positive effect on growth, even in the presence of the two instabilities of which it reduces the negative effects.

Cette thèse est une contribution à l’analyse économique des institutions politiques et économiques dans les pays en développement. Elle s’inscrit dans la lignée des travaux de la Nouvelle Economie Institutionnelle et de la Nouvelle Economie Politique. Précisément, nous nous intéressons aux institutions telles que la constitution, la corruption et la démocratie. Cette thèse est structurée en cinq chapitres. Le chapitre 1 aborde la problématique des institutions dans sa globalité. Dans ce chapitre, nous définissons le terme institutions comme : « règle et contrainte », « instrument de gouvernance » et « équilibre de jeux ». Nous discutons ensuite des théories du changement institutionnel. Enfin, nous identifions les facteurs influençant la qualité des institutions. Dans le chapitre 2, nous revisitons la théorie de la modernisation. Nos différentes analyses empiriques nous conduisent à conclure que la théorie de la modernisation, telle que définie actuellement et selon laquelle l’éducation, le revenu, l’urbanisation et l’industrialisation influencent la démocratie, n’explique pas la dynamique négative de démocratie en Afrique. Dans le chapitre 3, nous démontrons que le manque d’expérience parlementaire à l’indépendance exerce un effet négatif sur la qualité de la démocratie en Afrique plusieurs années après les indépendances. Le chapitre 4 aborde la problématique du changement constitutionnel en Afrique. Il identifie les facteurs qui influencent la tentative et la réussite du changement de l’article constitutionnel sur la limitation du nombre de mandats présidentiels, et montre qu’ils sont d’ordre institutionnel, macroéconomique, culturel et socioculturel. Enfin, le chapitre 5 met en évidence le fait que les déterminants de la corruption varient selon le niveau de développement des pays et selon les zones géographiques. / This thesis is a contribution to the economic analysis of political and economic institutions in developing countries. It is in line with the works of the new institutional economics and the new political economics. Precisely, we are interested in institutions such as constitution, corruption and democracy. This thesis is articulated around five chapters. The first chapter provides a global approach of the analysis of institutions. In this chapter, we define institutions as « rule and constraint », « governance tool » and « game equilibrium ». Then, we discuss the theories of institutional changes. Finally, we identify the key drivers of the institutional quality. In the second chapter, we revisit the modernization theory. The empirical analyses lead to the conclusion that the modernization theory according to which the democracy is mainly driven by the level of education, income, urbanization and the industrialization do not explain the negative dynamic of the democratic process in Africa. In chapter 3, we show that the lack of parliamentary experience at the independence has a negative persistent effect on the current state of democracy in Africa. Chapter 4 adresses the issue of constitutional changes in Africa. It shows that the factors which affect the attempt and the success of the change of the article limiting the number of presidential terms are of institutional, macroeconomic, cultural and sociocultural order. Finally, chapter 5 highlights the fact that the determinants of corruption vary according to the country’s level of development and according to the geographic area.

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2017-07-13T20:20:39Z No. of bitstreams: 1 josewilsonaquinodebrito.pdf: 2695206 bytes, checksum: 3bde584d1a5844a4f2c9ae314c649731 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-08-08T15:52:53Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 josewilsonaquinodebrito.pdf: 2695206 bytes, checksum: 3bde584d1a5844a4f2c9ae314c649731 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-08T15:52:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 josewilsonaquinodebrito.pdf: 2695206 bytes, checksum: 3bde584d1a5844a4f2c9ae314c649731 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-06-09 / O principal objetivo desse trabalho foi estimar os impactos das externalidades do mercado de trabalho analisadas por meios de graus de especialização, variedade relacionada e não relacionada da mobilidade no crescimento regional no Brasil de 1996 até 2008. Tanto a taxa de crescimento de emprego como taxa de crescimento da produtividade do trabalho foram utilizadas como medidas de crescimento. Para realizar as estimações foi utilizado o modelo de Métodos de Momentos Generalizados (MMG) devido uma possível endogeneidade entre mobilidade e crescimento regional. Os resultados indicaram que o grau de variedade de conhecimento inter-regional é um dos principais impulsionadores do nível de emprego. O grau de especialização intrarregional impacta positivamente no emprego regional. Apenas os graus de variedade de conhecimento apresentaram resultados positivos no crescimento da produtividade do trabalho. Os resultados encontrados nesse trabalho sugerem que a variedade de conhecimento proveniente da mobilidade mão de obra qualificada é um dos principais impulsionadores do crescimento regional. / The main objective of this study was to estimate the impacts of externalities in the labor market analyzed by degrees of specialization, related and unrelated variety of mobility in regional growth in Brazil from 1996 to 2008. Both the employment growth rate and the Labor productivity growth were used as growth’s measures. To estimate the equations was used Generalized Moment Methods (GMM) due to soften a possible endogeneity between mobility and regional growth. The results indicated that the degree of variety of inter-regional knowledge is one of the main drivers of the level of employment. The degree of intraregional specialization has a positive impact on regional employment. Only the degrees of variety of knowledge presented positive results in the growth of labor productivity. The results found in this study suggest that the variety of knowledge derived from skilled labor mobility is one of the main drivers of regional growth.

O consenso entre os organismos internacionais de cooperação para o comércio e para o desenvolvimento econômico está em reconhecer na capacidade de inovar a principal fonte para a promoção da produtividade nas organizações. Parte do esforço brasileiro de construção e desenvolvimento de um sistema nacional de inovação constituiu-se na criação de programas de incentivos fiscais, como forma de fazer avançar os investimentos em Pesquisa, Desenvolvimento & Inovação - P&D&I, provocando o setor privado a participar mais intensamente do processo de financiamento do desenvolvimento tecnológico. Uma década após a implementação do principal programa de incentivo fiscal à inovação no Brasil (Lei nº 11.196/05), é mister verificar se tais incentivos foram capazes de atingir os seus objetivos. A presente tese visa a avaliar: (i) qual a repercussão sobre os dispêndios com P&D&I da opção pela utilização dos incentivos fiscais concedidos pela Lei do Bem e (ii) quanto da renúncia fiscal, ou seja, dos créditos recebidos pelas empresas participantes deste programa, retornou em termos de investimentos em P&D&I ao longo do tempo. A metodologia empregada, propõe a estimação de um modelo empírico para os dispêndios em P&D&I, em que estes são explicados ora pela opção da empresa por utilizar os incentivos fiscais da Lei do Bem ora pela renúncia fiscal decorrente da utilização do mesmo programa, além de um conjunto de variáveis de controle associado às restrições de financiamento. Os testes estatísticos foram conduzidos para o agregado das companhias de capital aberto, registradas na BM&FBOVESPA em 2013, relativamente a seus desempenhos no período de 2008 a 2013. Os resultados, para dados em painel dinâmico, foram obtidos a partir do modelo GMM-System e apontam que a decisão de utilizar os incentivos fiscais da Lei do Bem está associada a um aumento nos dispêndios com P&D&I, ao longo do tempo. Assim sendo, para cada ponto percentual de aumento na propensão das companhias em optar pelo uso da Lei do Bem espera-se de 0,65 a 0,85 pontos percentuais de aumento em seus dispêndios com P&D&I. Por outro lado, o aumento de um ponto percentual na renúncia fiscal gera uma expectativa de aumento nos dispêndios com P&D&I das companhias, que pode variar de 0,26 a 0,40 pontos percentuais, ao longo do tempo / The consensus among international cooperation agencies for trade and economic development lies in recognizing in the ability to innovate the main source for promoting productivity in organizations. The Brazilian effort of construction and development of a national innovation system constituted the creation of tax incentive programs as a way to advance investments in Research, Development & Innovation - R&D&I, causing the private sector to participate more intensely financing process of technological development. A decade after the implementation of major tax incentive program for innovation in Brazil (Law nº. 11.196/05), it is necessary to verify that such incentives were able to achieve their goals. The present thesis aims at evaluating: (i) the impact on R&D&I expenditures of the option to use the tax incentives granted by the \"Lei do Bem\" and (ii) how much of tax waiver, that is to say, of the credits received by companies participating in this program, has returned in terms of R&D&I investments over time. The methodology to be used proposes the estimation of an empirical model for R&D&I expenditure, which are explained either by the company\'s option to use tax incentives of the \"Lei do Bem\" or by tax credits obtained due to the use of tax incentives program, in addition to a set of control variables associated with financing constraints. The statistical tests were conducted to the group of publicly traded companies listed on the BM & FBOVESPA in 2013, for their performances in the period 2008 to 2013. The results for the dynamic panel data were obtained from the GMM-System model and indicate that the decision to use the \"Lei do Bem\" tax incentives is associated with an increase in R&D&I expenditures over time. So that for each percentage point of increase in the propensity of companies to opt for the use of the \"Lei do Bem\", 0.65 to 0.85 percentage points of increase in R&D&I expenditures is expected. On the other hand, the increase of one percentage point in the tax waiver generates an expectation of increase in the R&D&I expenses of the companies, which can vary from 0.26 to 0.40 percentage points, over time

Les difficultés rencontrées par la banque centrale du Vietnam dans la dernière décennie, qui se sont traduites par des écarts importants par rapport à l'objectif d'inflation, nourrissent le débat sur l'adéquation subsistante de l'actuelle stratégie de politique monétaire en place dans le pays depuis 1992. Partant de cette idée, cette thèse a pour objectif d'examiner la pertinence du ciblage monétaire quantitatif. De plus, celle-ci recommande quelques aménagements pour améliorer l'efficacité de la politique monétaire. Après un chapitre introductif, le chapitre 2 propose un état des lieux de l'économie du Vietnam. Les deux chapitres suivants enquêtent sur la satisfaction des exigences imposées dans le cadre du ciblage monétaire, à savoir l'existence d'une fonction stable de demande de monnaie à long terme (traitée dans le chapitre 3) et celle d'un pouvoir prédictif significatif sur l'inflation que possède la monnaie (testée dans le chapitre 4). Il s'avère que la fonction de demande de monnaie est stable, et que l'hypothèse selon laquelle l'évolution des agrégats monétaires a un pouvoir prédictif sur l'inflation n'est pas rejetée. Le ciblage monétaire se trouve ainsi toujours approprié pour le pays. Les deux derniers chapitres calculent et suggèrent les indicateurs de politique monétaire à travers des évaluations exhaustives. Il s'agit des mesures de l'inflation structurelle et d'un indice synthétique des conditions financières, qui se révèlent utile pour la prise de décision de la banque centrale. / Difficulties of the central bank of Vietnam during the last decade in controlling price inflation and securing its inflation goals have launched and nurtured a vigorous debate on whether the current monetary policy strategy, in place since 1992 remains always appropriate. lnspired of this idea, this thesis aims to examine the relevance of the quantitative monetary targeting framework. Furthermore, the thesis recommends some arrangement in order to improve monetary policy efficiency. After an introductory chapter, Chapter 2 propose the state of the art of the economy of Vietnam. Two following chapters investigate the conditions that an effective money targeting strategy requires and whether they are fully satisfied in Vietnam. Indeed, the existence of a stable money demand function in the long run is considered in Chapter 3, and a significant predictive power that money should have on inflation is tested in Chapter 4. It is proved that the money demand function is stable and the hypothesis according to which money growth may forecast future inflation cannot be rejected. The monetary targeting is therefore still relevant for Vietnam. The last two chapters compute and suggest various monetary policy indicators by means of exhaustive evaluation exercises. Different core inflation measure and a composite index of financial conditions are introduced, which are justified to be meaningful for the policy making process of the central bank.