A mechanistic understanding of transport and degradation processes of modern agricultural pesticides, including chiral pesticides, is critical for predicting their fate in the environment. In agricultural landscapes, wetlands can intercept pesticide-contaminated runoff or groundwater and improve water quality through various retention and degradation processes, which remain unknown. In a downscaling approach, three different wetlands receiving agricultural runoff were used as 'natural laboratories' to investigate the fate of widely used pesticides. Overall, our results showed that dynamics of hydrological and redox conditions largely influenced pesticide sorption mechanisms and their distribution over time within wetland compartments, thereby controlling degradation processes. While large-scale studies provide integrative information on pesticide dissipation and distribution patterns with respect to wetland functioning, small-scale investigations using novel methods such as isotope and enantiomer analyses characterize underlying molecular processes governing pesticide degradation.

Climate change is altering hydrological processes with varying degrees in various regions of the world. This research work investigates the possible impacts of climate change on water resource and Hydropower production potential in central and southern Africa. The Congo, Zambezi and Kwanza, Shire, Kafue and Kabompo basins that lie in central and southern Africa are used as case studies. The review of climate change impact studies shows that there are few studies on impacts of climate change on hydropower production. Most of these studies were carried out in Europe and north America and very few in Asia, south America and Africa. The few studies indicate that southern Africa would experience reduction in precipitation and runoff, consequently reductions in hydropower production. There are no standard methods of assessing the resulting impacts. Two approaches were used to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower. One approach is lumping changes on country or regional level and use the mean climate changes on mean annual flows as the basis for regional changes in hydropower production. This is done to get an overall picture of the changes on global and regional level. The second approach is a detailed assessment process in which downscaling, hydrological modelling and hydropower simulations are carried out. The possible future climate scenarios for the region of central and southern Africa depicted that some areas where precipitation are likely to have increases while other, precipitation will reduce. The region northern Zambia and southern Congo showed increases while the northern Congo basin showed reductions. Further south in southern African region, there is a tendency of decreases in precipitation. To the west, in Angola, inland showed increases while towards the coast highlighted some decreases in precipitation. On a global scale, hydropower is likely to experience slight changes (0.08%) due to climate change by 2050. Africa is projected for a slight decrease (0.05%), Asia with an increase of 0.27%, Europe a reduction up to 0.16% while America is projected to have an increase of 0.05%. In the eastern African region, it was shown that hydropower production is likely to increase by 0.59%, the central with 0.22% and the western with a 0.03%. The southern, and northern African regions were projected to have reductions of 0.83% and 0.48% respectively. The basins with increases in flow projections have a slight increase on hydropower production but not proportional to the increase in precipitation. The basins with decreases had even high change as the reduction was further increased by evaporation losses. The hydropower production potential of most of southern African basins is likely to decrease in the future due to the impact of climate change while the central African region shows an increasing trend. The hydropower system in these regions will be affected consequently. The hydropower production changes will vary from basin to basin in these regions. The Zambezi, Kafue and Shire river basins have negative changes while the Congo, Kwanza and Kabompo river basins have positive changes. The hydropower production potential in the Zambezi basin decreases by 9 - 34%. The hydropower production potential in the Kafue basin decreases by 8 - 34% and the Shire basin decreases by 7 - 14 %. The southern region will become drier with shorter rainy seasons. The central region will become wetter with increased runoff. The hydropower production potential in the Congo basin reduces slightly and then increases by 4% by the end of the century. The hydropower production potential in the Kwanza basin decreases by 3% and then increases by 10% towards the end of the century and the Kabompo basin production increases by 6 - 18%. It can be concluded that in the central African region hydropower production will, in general, increase while the southern African region, hydropower production will decrease. In summary, the analysis has shown that the southern African region is expected to experience decreases in rainfall and increases in temperature. This will result in reduced runoff. However the northern part of southern Africa is expected to remain relatively the same with slight increase, moving northwards towards the central African region where mainly increases have been registered. The southern African region is likely to experience reductions up to 5 - 20% while the central African region is likely to experience an increase in runoff in the range of 1 - 5%. Lack of data was observed as a critical limiting factor in modelling in the central and southern Africa region. The designs, plans and operations based on poor hydrological data severely compromise performance and decrease efficiency of systems. Climate change is expected to change these risks. The normal extrapolations of historical data will be less reliable as the past will become an increasingly poor predictor of the future. Better (observed) data is recommended in future assessments and if not better tools and methods for data collection/ should be used. Future designs, plans and operations should include and aspect of climate change, if the region is to benefit from the climate change impacts.

Submitted by CAIO VINICIUS FERREIRA MARMONTEL (caioomarmontel@gmail.com) on 2018-05-30T19:16:14Z No. of bitstreams: 1 tese_caiovfmarmontel.pdf: 3393744 bytes, checksum: c80daca7ae4e8871496c00cb8b548ba6 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Lucia Martins Frederico null (mlucia@fca.unesp.br) on 2018-06-04T13:57:05Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 marmontel_cvf_dr_botfca.pdf: 3241299 bytes, checksum: 194185ca33e9c13c6ba04b1dabe49aae (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-06-04T13:57:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 marmontel_cvf_dr_botfca.pdf: 3241299 bytes, checksum: 194185ca33e9c13c6ba04b1dabe49aae (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-05-03 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / A água disponível para o consumo humano vem se tornando cada vez mais escassa, um exemplo, foi a crise hídrica iniciada em 2014 na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. Diante desse problema, uma possibilidade de melhorar a compreensão do comportamento hidrológico, é a utilização de tecnologias, ou seja, as bases computacionais, em especial a integração do SIG com a modelagem hidrológica, por possuir um grande potencial de estimar quantitativamente a vazão. O presente estudo teve como objetivo testar a aplicabilidade do modelo hidrológico SWAT para estimação de vazões em um trecho da bacia hidrográfica do rio Paraibuna - Vale do Paraíba, região da Mata Atlântica, no estado de São Paulo. O rio Paraibuna utiliza suas águas para gerar energia elétrica e é um dos formadores do rio Paraíba do Sul, importante corpo d’água da região sudeste do Brasil. Os dados climáticos e fluviométricos foram coletados no LHFWE/PESM-NC com uma série histórica de 22 anos. O trecho da bacia hidrográfica estudada tem elevação de 974 a 1662 metros, cinco tipos de solos e três tipos de usos da terra. As avaliações dos dados observados e simulados na calibração e validação foram feitas por meio da avaliação dos gráficos-visuais de dispersão, hidrogramas e índices estatísticos pelo SWAT-CUP. Os dados gerados do balanço hídrico pelo SWAT, após a calibração foram valores próximos com a realidade. Na calibração e validação foi verificado boa aderência entre os dados simulados e observados, ou seja, os valores simulados reconheceram os picos e recessões dos valores observados. Os índices estatísticos (NS, PBIAS, RSR e R²) calculados para a calibração e validação do SWAT foram qualificados como “muito bom” para a estimação das vazões. Os resultados confirmaram a aplicabilidade do modelo, dessa forma, pode servir como ferramenta para planejamento e gestão de políticas públicas dos recursos hídricos em bacias hidrográficas, na região da Mata Atlântica. O modelo hidrológico SWAT mostrou-se muito bom e apto para estimação de vazões e do balanço hídrico no trecho da bacia hidrográfica do rio Paraibuna. / The water available for human consumption is becoming increasingly scarce, an example was the water crisis started in 2014 in the Metropolitan Region of São Paulo. Faced with this problem, one possibility to improve the understanding of hydrological behavior, is the use of technologies, that is, the computational bases, especially the integration of GIS with hydrological modeling, because it has a great potential of quantitatively estimate the flow rate. The present study had as objective to test the applicability of the SWAT hydrological model for flow estimation in the stretch of the Paraibuna river basin - Paraiba Valley, in the Atlantic Forest region, in the state of São Paulo. The Paraibuna River uses its waters to generate electricity and is one of the creators of the river South Paraiba, an important body of water in the southeastern region of Brazil. Climatic and fluviometric data were collected at the LHFWE/PESM-NC with a historical series of 22 years. The stretch of the studied basin has elevation of 974 to 1662 meters, five types of soils and three types of land use. The evaluations of the data observed and simulated in the calibration and validation were done by means of the evaluation of the visual graphics of dispersion, hydrograms and statistical indexes by SWAT-CUP. The data generated from the SWAT water balance after calibration, were close to reality. In the calibration and validation, in good adherence was observed between the simulated and observed data, that is, the simulated values recognized the peaks and recessions of the observed values. The statistical indices (NS, PBIAS, RSR and R²) calculated for SWAT calibration and validation were qualified as "very good" for the estimation of flows. The results confirmed the applicability of the model, so it can serve as a tool for planning and management of water resources public policies in watersheds, in the Atlantic Forest region. The SWAT hydrological model was very good and suitable for estimation of flow and water balance in the stretch of the Paraibuna river basin. / 1513206

Les bassins périurbains, constitués de zones urbaines, agricoles et naturelles, sont des bassinsversants complexes à étudier. L’augmentation des surfaces imperméables et les modifications deschemins d’écoulement par les réseaux d’assainissement influencent leur hydrologie. Ces modificationssont notamment liées aux choix de modes de gestion des eaux pluviales : réseaux unitaires,réseaux séparatifs, infiltration à la parcelle, etc. La modélisation hydrologique spatialisée, quirend compte de l’hétérogénéité des bassins versants, est un outil permettant d’évaluer les différentsenjeux en termes d’occupation du sol et de gestion des eaux pluviales. Cependant, peu demodèles ont été construits pour être appliqués aux bassins périurbains, à l’échelle des gestionnaires(˜ 100 km2) et pour des simulations sur de longues périodes (> 10 ans). La modélisationhydrologique doit donc être adaptée afin de mieux capter les spécificités des milieux périurbainstelles que l’hétérogénéité de l’occupation du sol et la connexion de certaines zones urbaines à unréseau d’assainissement.Ce travail de thèse a consisté à développer un nouvel outil de modélisation adapté à ces problématiques: le modèle distribué horaire J2000P. Ce modèle simule les processus hydrologiquesen milieux ruraux et urbains et prend en compte les réseaux d’assainissement, les connexionsà ces réseaux et les déversements des déversoirs d’orage (DO). Le modèle a été mis en oeuvresur le bassin périurbain de l’Yzeron (˜ 130 km2), situé à l’ouest de Lyon. L’évaluation, effectuéeà l’exutoire de différents sous-bassins de tailles et d’occupations du sol différentes, montre desrésultats très encourageants. Le modèle a tendance à sous-estimer le débit mais la dynamiquedes pics est bien représentée tout comme le déversement des DO. Suite aux résultats de l’évaluation,une analyse de sensibilité « pas à pas » du modèle a été réalisée et différentes hypothèsesde fonctionnement du bassin ont été formulées pour améliorer la compréhension du modèle etdes processus représentés. Le modèle a ensuite été utilisé pour tester l’impact de modificationsde l’occupation des sols et/ou de la gestion des eaux pluviales sur la réponse hydrologique. Lemodèle montre que la gestion de l’occupation du sol a moins d’influence sur l’hydrologie dubassin que la gestion du réseau d’assainissement. / Growing urbanization and related anthropogenic processes have a high potential to influencehydrological process dynamics. Typical consequences are an increase of surface imperviousnessand modifications of water flow paths due to artificial channels and barriers (combined and separatedsystem, sewer overflow device, roads, ditches, etc.). Periurban catchments, at the edgeof large cities, are especially affected by fast anthropogenic modifications. They usually consistof a combination of natural areas, rural areas with dispersed settlements and urban areas mostlycovered by built zones and spots of natural surfaces. Spatialized hydrological modeling tools, simulatingthe entire hydrological cycle and able to take into account the important heterogeneityof periurban watersheds can be used to assess the impact of stormwater management practiceson their hydrology.We propose a new modeling tool for these issues : the hourly distributed J2000P model.This model simulates the hydrological processes in rural and urban areas and takes into accountthe sewerage networks, connections to these networks and overflows from sewer overflow devices(SOD). The application site is the Yzeron catchment (˜ 130 km2), located in the West of Lyon.The evaluation, conducted at the outlet of different sub-basins with different sizes and landuse, shows very encouraging results. The model tends to underestimate the discharge but thedynamics of the peaks and the SOD overflows are well simulated. The model is also used to testthe impact of changes in land use and/or stormwater management on the hydrological response.The results show that land use management has less impact on the hydrology of the catchmentthan stormwater management.

Les zones intertropicales sont caractérisées par des précipitations très variables dans l'espace et le temps qui peuvent produire sur une même région des conditions de sécheresse prolongées entrecoupées d'événements pluviométriques intenses. Ces extrêmes secs et humides peuvent provoquer des pénuries d’eau ou des inondations, mettant en péril des populations souvent très vulnérables aux aléas climatiques. C'est particulièrement le cas de l'Afrique de l'Ouest qui, dans un contexte de conditions sèches dominantes depuis les années 1970, subit ces deux dernières décennies un nombre croissant d'inondations. Face à un réchauffement climatique déjà bien réel, mais qui va se renforcer avec des conséquences sur le cycle de l'eau encore très incertaines, il est nécessaire de mieux comprendre comment la variabilité climatique – et en l’occurrence plus spécifiquement la variabilité pluviométrique, impacte la variabilité hydrologique. On dispose pour cela de modèles numériques de surface qui représentent de façon explicite les principaux processus intervenant dans les bilans d’eau. Ils doivent être alimentés par des champs de forçage pluviométrique à des résolutions suffisamment fines pour bien représenter les variabilités de petite échelle qui caractérisent les précipitations tropicales (résolution spatiale de quelques kilomètres et pas de temps horaire ou inférieur). De telles résolutions sont la plupart du temps incompatibles avec les échelles des données issues des réseaux pluviométriques nationaux en Afrique de l'Ouest (densité moyenne de 1 pluviomètre pour 10.000 km² au pas de temps journalier). Il existe de surcroît des zones entières qui sont peu ou mal couvertes du fait de conditions climatiques difficiles ou du manque de moyens des services météorologiques nationaux. Dans ce contexte, la télédétection satellite s'avère très utile, mais elle ne permet pas encore d’atteindre les résolutions mentionnées plus haut. Compte tenu de cette situation, la question de la sensibilité des modèles hydrologiques à la résolution des champs pluviométriques utilisés pour les forcer constitue un sujet important, assez peu abordé en tant que tel dans la littérature consacrée à l’utilisation des données satellitaires pour forcer des modèles hydrologiques.Cette thèse s’attache donc à traiter séquentiellement deux questions distinctes, mais souvent confondues : i) quel est l’impact de la dégradation de la résolution spatio-temporelle des champs de forçages pluviométriques sur la réponse d’un modèle hydrologique, et ce en supposant que ces champs sont dépourvus d’erreur en moyenne ; ii) comment les champs de pluie estimés par satellite, qui présentent de façon combinée des problèmes de résolution et de biais, influencent-ils la réponse hydrologique simulée?Le jeu de données utilisé pour l’étude est celui du site soudanien de l’observatoire AMMA-CATCH au Benin (bassin de l’Ouémé, 13150 km2). Le réseau de pluviographes de cet observatoire permet de calculer des champs de référence à très fine résolution (0.05° et 30 minutes), utilisés pour forcer le modèle hydrologique DHSVM et constituer ainsi des débits simulés de référence. A partir de là il est possible de procéder à des études de sensibilité dans les deux directions mentionnées ci-dessus. / Intertropical climates are characterized by a strong space-time variability of precipitation that can produce persistent dry spells and extreme rainfall events within the same region. These extreme climatic conditions directly impact water resources and flood occurrences, threatening populations that are highly vulnerable to natural hazards. This is especially the case in West Africa, where an increasing number of flood events has been reported over the last twenty years while the dry conditions that have started in the 1970's still prevail nowadays. While a significant climate warming is already observed in this region, there is more to come, with possible changes of the patterns of rainfall variability. It is thus of primary importance to better apprehend how sensitive is the hydrological response of West African catchments to small scale rainfall variability. Numerical models explicitly simulating the hydrological processes have already been tested and calibrated to represent the rainfall-runoff relationship of these catchments. They require high resolution (typically a few kilometers in space and one hour or less in time) rainfields as inputs, so as to account properly for the small scale variability of precipitation. However, this requirement is difficult to meet in a region where operational networks have a density which often does not exceed one gauge per 10000 km² and provide daily measurements only. Satellite remote sensing is consequently seen as a remedy to the shortcomings of ground monitoring, especially as it provides a continuous monitoring in space and time, but satellite rainfall products are still far from reaching the high space-time resolution mentioned above. In such a context, the sensitivity of hydrological models to the resolution of their forcing rainfields is an important topic, rarely tackled as such in the literature dealing with hydrological modeling based on satellite data.This PHD thesis thus focus on two related questions : i) how degrading the space-time resolution of forcing rainfields is influencing the response of hydrologic models, assuming that this degradation of the resolution has no influence on the biases ? ; ii) what are the consequences of using satellite rainfall products – which combine low resolution and bias problems – for simulating the response of catchments in tropical regions?To that end the AMMA-CATCH data set of the Ouémé catchment (13150 km2) in Benin is used. The high density recording raingauge network allows the computation of fine resolution rainfields (0.05°; 30 minutes), used as inputs to the DHSVM hydrological model, providing reference series of river flows at the outlet of the catchment.

L’objectif général de ma thèse est de développer une modélisation spatialisée à l’échelle d’un versant, afin de mieux rendre compte des principales voies de transfert des pesticides dans les terrains agricoles. Je cherche à adopter une approche simplifiée, mais qui permet néanmoins de représenter les discontinuités existantes (parcelles, fossés, talus … etc). En effet, on souhaite pouvoir quantifier les mécanismes du transfert des pesticides en prenant en compte l’influence des éléments du paysage (parcelles, fossés, bandes enherbées …etc) sur la partition des transferts d’eau et de pesticides en surface et en subsurface. On s’appuie pour ce développement sur les données acquises sur le bassin versant expérimental de la Morcille (69), qui servent à fournir des ordres de grandeur et un cadre pour tester la pertinence des développements effectués. Une synthèse bibliographique sur les processus en jeu et les modèles existants a conduit au choix de la plateforme de modélisation hydrologique CMF, développée à l’université de Giessen (Kraft, 2012). Cette dernière permet une modélisation orientée objet d’un système hydrologique (colonne de sol, versant, bassin versant ...etc) et propose une grande variété d’équations physiques pour la représentation des processus hydrologiques. Le travail est mené sur trois étapes, une première consiste à l’évaluation du comportement de la plateforme et la validation de sa réponse via la comparaison dans un premier temps via un modèle 1D suite à une comparaison avec Hydrus1D. Dans un second temps, nous avons mené des simulations en 2D en comparant avec le modèle Cathy en se basant sur les travaux de Sulis et al. (2010) et avec Hydrus2D (Simunek et al., 1999 & Simunek et al., 2001) sur un versant inspiré du versant expérimental de la Morcille. La deuxième étape consiste à la prise en compte des écoulements préférentiels dans certains types de sol structurés, nous paraît nécessaire pour une meilleure représentation des processus en jeu. La représentation du transfert préférentiel des produits phytosanitaires via les macropores vers la ressource en eau représente encore un défi pour la recherche. L’approche à double perméabilité (DP) choisie contient le développant d’une nouvelle fonction d’infiltration dans les macropores. Notre modèle DP contient également deux fonctions alternatives d’échange matrice-macropores ; la première est proportionnelle à la différence des teneurs en eau des deux compartiments du sol (Philip, 1968). La deuxième fonction d’échange est une onde diffusante basée sur l’approche présentée par van Genuchten (1993). La dernière partie de la thèse consiste en la modélisation des solutés suivant successivement les deux approches : simple porosité et double perméabilité, en considérant le transport des solutés par convection et une adsorption linéaire. La validation de notre approche de modélisation est menée en comparant avec les simulations d’Hydrus1D/2D. / The aim of my thesis is to develop a spatial scale modeling of a catchment, to better reflect the main pathways of pesticides in agricultural lands. We are looking to adopt a simplified approach, yet it allows to represent the existing discontinuities (plots, ditches, embankments ... etc). Indeed, we wish to quantify the mechanisms of transfer of pesticides taking into account the influence of landscape features (patches, ditches, grass strips ... etc) on the partition of water transfers and pesticides in surface and subsurface. It relies for this development on the acquired data on the experimental watershed Morcille (69), which serve to provide orders of magnitude and a framework to test the relevance of business developments. A literature review on the processes involved and the existing models led to the choice of hydrological modeling framework CMF, developed at the University of Giessen (Kraft, 2012). CMF allows for object oriented modeling of a hydrologic system (soil column, slope, watershed etc.) and offers a wide variety of physical equations for the representation of hydrological processes. The work is conducted in three steps, the first involves assessing the behavior of CMF and validating its response via the comparison initially via a 1D model following a comparison with Hydrus1D. Secondly, we conducted 2D simulations comparing with the Cathy model based on the work of Sulis et al. (2010) and Hydrus2D (Simunek et al., 1999 & Simunek et al., 2001) on a hillslope inspired from the experimental slope of Morcille. The second step is to take account of preferential flow in certain types of structured soil, seems necessary for better representation of the processes. The representation of the preferential transfer of pesticides through macropores to water resources is still a research challenge. The dual permeability approach (DP) contains selected developing the infiltration of a new function in the macropores. Our DP model also contains two alternative exchange functions matrix-macropores; the first one is proportional to the difference of the water contents of the two compartments of the soil (Philip, 1968). The second exchange function is a diffusing wave based on the approach outlined by van Genuchten (1993). The last part of the thesis consists in the modeling of solutes successively following two approaches: single dual porosity and permeability, considering the convective transport of solutes and a linear adsorption. The validation of our modeling approach is conducted by comparing with the Hydrus1D / 2D simulations.

Neste estudo, trata-se de avaliar fontes de precipitação baseadas em estimativas por satélite e técnicas de assimilação de dados para previsão de vazões por meio do modelo hidrológico distribuído MGB-IPH. A insuficiente representatividade espacial dos pluviômetros torna difícil a correta representação dos campos de precipitações. Por outro lado, as estimativas de satélite, embora forneçam uma descrição espacial mais consistente, são potencialmente menos acuradas. Sendo assim, procura-se utilizar métodos que combinem os dados de ambas as fontes para gerar um campo de precipitação mais consistente. Neste trabalho, implementaramse dois modelos de combinação pluviômetro-satélite, CHUVSAT e MERGEHQ, através de uma metodologia de interpolação. Por outro lado, as técnicas de assimilação de dados acoplados aos modelos de previsão hidrológica são também de interesse neste estudo, pois minimizam as incertezas associadas ao processo de calibração de parâmetros, às variáveis de estado e dados de entrada do modelo hidrológico. Para esse propósito, escolheu-se a bacia do rio Tocantins e implementou-se particularmente a técnica de assimilação de dados de tipo sequencial chamado na literatura de filtro de partículas, conjuntamente com o método de filtro Kalman por conjunto e o método de assimilação AsMGB atualmente acoplado ao modelo MGB-IPH. O estudo mostra que a precipitação combinada utilizada como dado de entrada na simulação hidrológica permitiu reproduzir adequadamente os hidrogramas observados para o período de calibração e validação. Já para o caso das vazões resultantes, durante a etapa de previsão, a precipitação combinada mostrou-se com melhor desempenho em termos estatísticos que os métodos sem combinar, sobretudo após 24 horas de antecedência. Finalmente, a técnica de assimilação de dados por filtro de partículas conseguiu absorver os erros da simulação melhorando as medidas de desempenho na etapa de previsão sendo superior ao modelo de previsão sem considerar assimilação. / The objective of this study is to evaluate precipitation sources based on satellite estimates and data assimilation techniques for prediction of flows by means of the distributed hydrological model MGB-IPH. The insufficient spatial availability of rain gauges makes difficult to represent precipitation fields appropriately. In contrast, satellite estimates, although providing a more consistent spatial description, are potentially less accurate. Thus, raingauge satellite merging methods that combine data from both sources to generate a more consistent precipitation field are used herein. For this purpose, two models namely CHUVSAT and MERGEHQ were implemented using an interpolation technique. On the other hand, data assimilation techniques coupled with hydrological forecasting models are also assessed in this study. The assimilation process minimizes the uncertainties associated with the parameter calibration procedure, variable state and hydrological input data. In this manner, the sequential data assimilation technique namely particle filter in conjunction with the Kalman filter method and the assimilation method AsMGB, which is currently coupled to the MGBIPH model, were implemented and applied to the Tocantis basin. The obtained results showed that the combined precipitation used as input data in the hydrological simulation allowed reproducing adequately the observed hydrograms for the periods of calibration and validation. In the case of the resulting flows during the forecast stage, the merging precipitation was shown to perform better in statistical terms than the uncombined methods, especially after 24 hours in advance. Finally, the data assimilation technique by particle filter was able to absorb all simulation errors, improving the performance measures in the forecasting stage, thus being superior to the forecasting model without considering assimilation.

Les étiages extrêmes entraînent souvent des conséquences importantes sur de multiples secteurs socio-économiques. Les récentes études liées au changement climatique semblent indiquer que ces événements risquent de devenir plus sévères et plus fréquents au cours des prochaines décennies. Malheureusement, le peu de données hydrométéorologiques disponibles avant les années 1970 ne permet pas de remettre dans un contexte historique les derniers événements observés ni ceux projetés par les études d'impact. Ces travaux de thèse s'attachent ainsi à améliorer l'état des connaissances sur les étiages extrêmes historiques ayant touché le territoire français depuis la fin du XIXe siècle grâce à une reconstruction hydrométéorologique. Ils proposent aussi un nouveau cadre méthodologique pour l'étude de ces extrêmes.Des informations sur la situation synoptique atmosphérique depuis la fin du XIXe siècle ont récemment été mises à disposition de la communauté via des réanalyses globales étendues comme la Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR). Ces travaux introduisent la méthode SCOPE qui permet de reconstruire la météorologie locale sur l'ensemble de la France à partir de la réanalyse 20CR. Elle produit un ensemble de 25 chroniques météorologiques spatialement homogènes de précipitations, température et évapotranspiration sur la période 1871-2012 et sur une grille de 64 km² recouvrant la France. Ces séries constituent le jeu de données SCOPE Climate, qui est ensuite utilisé comme forçage d'un modèle hydrologique sur un large échantillon de plus de 600 bassins versants français faiblement anthropisés. Un ensemble de 25 reconstructions de débits journaliers, appelé SCOPE Hydro, est ainsi produit entre 1871 et 2012. SCOPE Climate et SCOPE Hydro ont tous deux montré de bonnes performances en comparaison de données indépendantes de leur construction.Des événements spatio-temporels d'étiage extrême sont finalement identifiés et caractérisés à partir des chroniques de débit de SCOPE Hydro. Ces événements sont tout d'abord définis localement comme une période où le débit se trouve en-dessous d'un seuil mixte, combinaison d'un seuil fixe et d'un seuil variable avec la saison. Un regroupement spatial des événements locaux au sein du même événement spatio-temporel d'étiage extrême est effectué à l'échelle de la France, suivant une méthode spécialement mise au point dans le cadre de ces travaux. A l'issue de ces étapes, un événement peut être étudié localement ou à l'échelle nationale, grâce à des caractéristiques d'étendue, de durée ou de sévérité. Cette méthodologie permet d'identifier des événements exceptionnels d'étiage extrême anciens et peu connus (1878, 1893, 1942-1949), ou relativement récents mais peu documentés (1972, 1978, 1985), en plus de ceux connus (1921, 1976, 1989-1990, 2011). L'étude de l'évolution de ces événements sur 140 ans montre une plus grande proportion du territoire français touchée par des étiages extrêmes après les années 1940. Une comparaison des événements reconstruits à des sources documentaires faisant mention des sécheresses passées montre une bonne cohérence entre reconstructions et réalité.Ce travail de thèse contribue aux questions scientifiques d'actualité, notamment dans le cadre de la variabilité climatique et du changement climatique d'origine anthropique et de leurs conséquences hydrologiques. Ces travaux proposent deux méthodes innovantes sur la descente d'échelle statistique multivariée et l'identification spatio-temporelle des événements d'étiage extrême. Ils ont par ailleurs produit deux jeux de données hydroclimatiques ensemblistes de référence utilisables pour tout type d'étude climatique et hydrologique requérant une profondeur historique importante. / Extreme low-flow events have significant consequences on numerous socio-economic fields. Hydroclimate projections for the 21st century suggest an increase in low-flow severity and frequency. Nevertheless, projected events as well as recent observed events can hardly be put into a sufficiently long historical perspective due to the lack of hydrometeorological data before the 1970s. This work proposes to improve the knowledge on past extreme low-flow events having affected France since the end of the 19th century thanks to a hydrometeorological reconstruction. It also provides a new methodological framework to study these extreme events.Information on the atmospheric synoptic situation since the end of the 19th century have recently been released to the scientific community through extended global reanalyses like the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR). This work introduces the SCOPE method that provides local meteorological reconstructions on the entire France derived from the 20CR reanalysis. SCOPE produces a 25-member ensemble of spatially coherent meteorological series of daily precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration over the 1871-2012 period and on a 64 km² grid covering France. This dataset, called SCOPE Climate, is then used as forcings to run continuous hydrological simulations over more than 600 near-natural French catchments leading to a 25-member ensemble of daily streamflow time series -- called SCOPE Hydro -- between 1871 and 2012. SCOPE Climate and SCOPE Hydro show a relatively high skill during validation experiments against independent data.Spatio-temporal extreme low-flow events are finally identified and characterised from SCOPE Hydro reconstructed series. The events are first locally identified based on deficit characteristics under a novel combination of a fixed threshold and a daily variable threshold. A spatial matching procedure at the scale of France is developed in order to spatially assemble local extreme events into the same spatio-temporal event. After these steps, an event can either be studied at the local or national scale through its spatial extent, duration or severity characteristics. This work identified past and little known exceptional extreme events (1878, 1893, 1942-1949) or recent but poorly documented events (1972, 1978, 1985) besides well-known events (1921, 1976, 1989-1990, 2011). The evolution of these events since 1871 shows that a greater proportion of the French territory is affected by extreme low-flow events since the 1940s. A good coherence is found between reconstructed events and documentary sources on historical droughts.This work contributes to timely scientific issues, especially within the context of climate change and its hydrological impacts. This work proposes two innovative methods on multivariate statistical downscaling and spatio-temporal identification of extreme low-flow events. It also produced two reference hydroclimatic datasets that may be used in any study requiring long hydrometeorological series.

I detta examensarbete har det undersökts om digitala höjdmodeller, framställda från LIDAR-data som insamlats av Lantmäteriet, kan användas för komplettera och lokalisera nya bäckar och diken som inte finns med i Lantmäteriets databaser idag. I Lantmäteriets verksamhet karteras bäckar och diken först och främst idag med hjälp flygfotografier i stereo. Då metoden fungerar bra på öppen mark kan det vara svårt att urskilja bäckar under tät vegetation som till exempel barrskog. Metoden som använts för att lokalisera bäckar och diken går ut på att beräkna flödesriktningar och flödesackumuleringar i höjdmodellerna. I projektet testas hur metoden påverkas av höjdmodeller av olika upplösningar och ursprung. Förutom Lantmäteriets egna höjdmodeller testas en modell som tagit fram genom en så kallad B-spline interpolation av laserdata. Detta för att undersöka om Lantmäteriets modeller duger för att göra de hydrologiska beräkningar som krävs för att identifiera bäckar och diken. För att evaluera noggrannheten på bäckarna mäts ett antal bäckar och diken in under olika terräng- och vegetationstyper mot vilka en areaavvikelse per meter referensbäck och andelen som ligger under godkänt noggrannhetskrav i plan beräknas. Studien har visat att Lantmäteriets bäcklinjer under tät vegetation, främst barrskog, har en lägre noggrannhet än på öppen mark. Lantmäteriets egna höjdmodeller med 1 meters upplösning har visat sig prestera bäst eller likvärdigt med övriga modeller under dessa förhållanden och genererar bäckar med större noggrannhet än reda karterade bäcklinjer. Dock är metoden beroende av kompletterande information om bäckarnas utformning från till exempel flygfotografier eller fältstudier, eftersom genererade bäckar måste väljas ut manuellt. Detta gör att inga nya bäckar med absolut säkerhet kan lokaliseras med denna metod. Det rekommenderas därför att metoden endast används för att komplettera redan karterade bäckar och diken. / This Master thesis investigated whether digital elevation models, derived from LiDAR data collected by the Swedish mapping and surveying agency, Lantmäteriet, which is a public authority that manages geographic information in Sweden, can be used to map streams and dikes not included in their databases today. Today Lantmäteriet identifies streams and dikes mainly with the photogrammetric methods. The methods works well on open land, but it can be difficult to distinguish smaller streams and ditches covered by dense vegetation. The method used to locate streams and dikes is to calculate flow directions and flow accumulations in the height models. The project tests how the methods are influenced by elevation models with different resolutions and origins. In addition to the national elevation model, a new model interpolated from LiDAR-data was tested, using a so-called B-spline method. This was to find out if the model produced by Lantmäteriet is useful to make the hydrological calculations required to identify streams and dikes. In order to evaluate the accuracy of the streams, a number of reference stretches of streams and dikes were surveyed in areas with different terrain and vegetation types. The area deviation per meter reference stretch and the proportion below approved accuracy was calculated. The results shows that Lantmäteriet’s mapped watercourses under dense vegetation, mainly coniferous forest, have a lower accuracy than on open fields. Lantmäteriet’s height models with 1 meter resolution have been shown to perform best or equivalent to other models under these conditions, and generate broads with greater accuracy than finding marked pelvic lines. However, the method is dependent on supplementary information about the streams distribution from, for example, aerial photographs or field studies, as generated streams must be manually selected. This means that watercourses cannot be mapped accurately with this method. It is therefore recommended that the method should only be used for supplement already mapped streams and dikes.

This diploma thesis deals with the analysis of the factors which influence the direct drainage from the drainage area. The thesis specifically deals with the drainage area of the Kopaninský brook. Drainage is always influenced by several factors at the same time. These factors are above all climate, anthropogenic impact, underdrainage, shape and extent of a drainage area, land use, geologic structure, location and altitude of a drainage area. The direct drainage can be separated by different methods (modificated semi-graphical method, GROUND method, method of hydrogram separation, method of digitals filtres) or CN- curves can be used for calculation. This thesis used the method of CN curves to process the results of a given drainage area. In the methodical part of the thesis I reached to the creation of direct drainage maps with the utilisation of the BPEJ maps together with the input data gained by the method of CN curves. These outputs were created at different values of design rains repetition time N= 2, 10, 50 and 100 years. The volume of a direct drainage was calculated by a classic method and by a method using the ArcMap programme. Another part of the thesis was simulation of different area utilisation situations (real condition versus grassing of ploughland) and saturation of drainage area, or more precisely water content in soil (dry soil, middle dry soil, wet soil).