Dissertation in political science, D-level by Niklas Andersson, Spring Semester 2010. Tutor: Malin Stegmann McCallion “Societies in Crisis – When Washington Take Over” An economic meltdown wreaks havoc on the world and has plunged the Western world into a spiral of economic stimulus in order to keep their way of life intact. At the same time the same institutions that support these countries have had another agenda for more unfortunate and less influential countries where nothing has been free and everything been to a price of self-sacrifice in order to get the consent of the IMF and the World Bank. Everything according to the points stated in the so called Washington Consensus. The purpose of this dissertation is to research what impact the Washington Consensus has on the state in terms of power over the market and sovereignty. This shall be done by examining the points of the Consensus and then delve into the IMF and World Bank’s own program in four countries, Argentina, Russia, Kenya and the Republic of Korea. The findings shall then be compared to the Andersson Contract, a social contract theory summary showcasing the ideal liberal state, to determine if the Consensus gives enough room for the state to act against the market. This shall also be backed up with theories on economics from Adam Smith and Karl Polanyi in order to strengthen the comparison on the economic issues. The research question thus for the dissertation are: Which institutions and features does the Washington Consensus highlight as necessary for a state? Is the state they proposes to weak to uphold society according to the social contracts? According to the research there are parts of the Washington Consensus that fits the social contract and should therefore in theory be able to maintain a level of social dignity and be able to take part in the positive effects of the market. Other parts on the other hand show that some crucial institutions lack certain strength in order to be able to keep the free market in check, but they still exist. Therefore the answer to the question is that it’s ambiguous as all the necessary institutions exist, but some of them need to be strengthened in order to make sure the market remains free as well as the countries should be able to choose their own way to economic welfare. / Statsvetenskaplig uppsats, D-nivå av Niklas Andersson, Vårterminen 2010, Handledare Malin Stegmann McCallion "Samhällen i Kris - När Washington Tar Över" En ekonomisk härdsmälta skapar kaos runt om i världen och har kastat ner västvärlden i en spiral av ekonomiska stimulanser för att hålla deras livsstil flytande. Santidigt som detta sker har samma institutioner vilka gett första hjälpen till dessa länder har de haft en annan agenda för mer otursamma och mindre inflytelserika länder där ingenting har varit gratis och allt varit till priset av självuppoffring för att få IMF och Världsbankens samtycke. Allt utifrån punkterna fastlagda av Washington-konsensusen. Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka vilken inverkan Washington-konsensusen har på staten i betydelsen makt över marknaden och suveränitet. Detta skall genomföras genom att undersöka punkterna i konsensusen och sen dyka ner i IMF och Världsbanknens egna program i fyra länder, Argentina, Ryssland, Kenya och Sydkorea. Det jag finner ska sedan jämföras med Andeersson-kontraktet, en kontraktsteori sammanfattning av den ideala liberala staten, för att utröna om konsensusen ger tillräckligt utrymmer för staten att agera mot marknaden. Detta ska också stödjas med teorier om ekonomi av Adam Smith och Karl Polanyi för att styrka jämförelsen på de ekonomiska delarna. Frågeställningarna för uppsatsen är då följande: Vilka institutioner och funktioner uppmärksammar Washongton-konsensusen som nödvändiga för staten? Är staten de framhäver för svag för att upprätthålla samhället enligt kontraktteorierna? Enligt forskningen är det ett par delar av Washington-konsensusen som passar in i kontraktsteorin och borde därför i teorin möjliggöra en viss nivå av social värdighet och hantering av effekterna utav marknaden. Andra delar däremot visar att några viktiga institutioner saknar tillräckligt med styrka för att fullt ut kunna hålla marknaden i schack, men de existerar fortfarande. Därför är svaret till frågorna att det är tvetydigt eftersom alla g´rundelement finns där, men några av dem behöver förstärkas för att försäkra att marknaderna förblir fria samtidigt som länderna själva väljer deras  väg till ekonomiskt välstånd.

Le dimanche 1er janvier 2012, la République Démocratique du Congo devenait le 48ème Etat africain sur 54 à se doter de la TVA. C’est une ordonnance –loi, du 20 août 2010, prise sur habilitation législative et complétée par un décret du 22 novembre 2011 qui a fait de ce pays le dernier géant du continent à opérer la transition fiscale voulue par le FMI. Il a fallu dix ans de travaux au sein de la DGI, en participation avec les professionnels et sous le contrôle permanent d’un représentant à demeure du FMI et de missions semestrielles de contrôle, pour que cet impôt s’applique au total à 5600 contribuables ayant plus de 80 000 dollars de chiffre d’affaires, avec une espérance d’arriver à 15 000 assujettis dans un pays aux60 millions d’habitants.Par conséquent, si l’élaboration progressive et participative de cette TVA est une réussite intégralement administrative, puisqu’à part une brève consultation du Sénat, le Parlement n’ a pas eu la possibilité d’émettre un consentement, même après sa réélection en 2012, lorsqu’il a fallu compléter le régime initial , avec un droit d’option par exemple, au bout d’un an d’une gestion qui a posé les difficiles problèmes attendus, pour le traitement comptable des remboursements de crédits d’amont, une question iconoclaste reste posée : était ce vraiment une nécessité que d’avoir une TVA dans un pays où la guerre endémique sévit à l’Est ? Certes les autres pays africains l’ont. Le modèle RDC de la TVA introduite, s’inspire d’ailleurs largement de ce qui se fait dans le continent, avec des seuils d’imposition, des exonérations et une unicité de taux que l’on retrouve en d’autres pays et qui est conforme aux prescriptions de directives harmonisatrices d’unions régionales . Mais mis à part la contrainte du FMI quine laisse pas le choix, même avec des rentrées fiscales nettement améliorées, par rapport à celles de l’ancienne taxation du chiffre d’affaires,n’aurait il pas été plus efficace d’aller à l’audace d’une mutation de la technologie des droits de douane , pour les rendre déductibles, tout en les conservant, au lieu de s’aligner sur la solution classique de leur réduction et de leur suppression, avec en compensation l’introduction précisément d’une TVA ? C’est ce changement de paradigme dans la politique fiscale que cet ouvrage propose en final d’un bilan critique de l’introduction de la TVA. / Sunday 1 January 2012, the Democratic Republic of Congo became the 48th African state of 54 to adopt VAT. This is an order-law of 20 August 2010, taken on enabling legislation and supplemented by a decree of November 22,2011 that has made this country the last giant of the continent to the transition tax required by the IMF. It took ten years of work within the DGI, in participation with professionals and under the constant supervision of a representative of the IMF andremains biannual mission control for this tax applies to all taxpayers in 5600with more than 80 thousand dollars in revenue, with a hope of reaching15,000 subjects in a country with 60 million inhabitants.Therefore, if the progressive development and the participatory VAT isa full administrative success, since a part from a brief consultation with the Senate, Parliament has not been able to issue a consent, even after his reelection in 2012 when it came to complete the original plan, with a right ofoption for example, after a year's management who posed difficult problems expected for the accounting treatment of loan repayments upstream,iconoclastic a question remains unanswered: was it really a necessity to havea VAT in a country where war rages endemic to the east?While other African countries have. The DRC model of VAT introduced alsodraws heavily on what happens in the continent, with tax thresholds,exemptions and uniformity of rates found in other countries and complies withguidelines harmonizers’ regional unions. But apart from the stress of the IMFleaves no choice, even with tax revenues significantly improved compared tothe old taxation revenue, would not it have been more efficient to go to the audacity of a changing technology tariffs to make them tax-deductible, while keeping them instead to align itself with the classical solution of their reduction and deletion, with the introduction of compensation precisely a VAT?This is a paradigm shift in fiscal policy that this book offers a critical final of the introduction of VAT.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T20:20:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alberio Neves Filho.pdf: 1997150 bytes, checksum: 566d8ff8b3c8f13ffb17e050d94da052 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-03-28 / Following doctoral thesis developed in terms of qualification project of post-graduate studies program in social sciences from the Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo. The goal of the thesis presented here is to examine the political assumptions expressed in macroeconomic models of the International Monetary Fund adjustment and the political conditions necessary for its implementation, in the period 1980-2008. And justifications to develop a work of this nature were provided both by the recognized critical social and economic effects, as the current theoretical controversies existing on the pertinence of such programs and the reasons that led the IMF to promote macroeconomic policy, contained therein. The hypothesis explored here is that macroeconomic adjustment programmes developed and deployed by the IMF, indifferently applied in the various national economies and after the period of the so-called debt crisis, sought to make and was a result of complying with regulatory rules and symbolic imposed at the time and throughout the period in which gives the ownership of real resources in the Central States, by class of bankers. From this point of view, this change produced a rearrangement within the economic and political theories in use by the Fund, implying several attempts on your part, to the economic reconstruction of the most basic postulates, which formed the action parameter to the institution, in the long period from after World War II. The theoretical-methodological aspects are developed here, first, use of the postulates laid by M. DOBB on the SCHUMPETER s contribution towards the understanding of macroeconomic models as a political instrument design and ideological. Second, it uses the reading confirms M. BLAUG in the same sense that economic analysis models, hide, without rejecting their premises heuristics. It is used also of a long tradition, revived by K. MARX and not closed in this, which affirms the relevance of politics as the vehicle through which theoretical models, concepts and assumptions are thought of as fed by historical contexts and, at the same time will be part of the consolidation symbolic or not, these same contexts. When such theoretical-methodological aspects are applied to that working hypothesis to explain the study results and understand that the adjustment programmes of the International Monetary Fund and the evidence of their policies have had significant effects, to confirm it, about the current trend financialisation of the world capitalism. If correct, the exposed, lighten and contribute to the understanding of these issues were addressed in the body of work now submitted / Segue Tese de Doutorado desenvolvido nos termos do projeto de qualificação do Programa de Estudos Pósgraduados em Ciências Sociais da Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo. O objetivo da tese ora apresentada é o de examinar os pressupostos políticos expressos nos modelos macroeconômicos de ajuste do Fundo Monetário Internacional e as condições políticas necessárias à sua efetivação, no período de 1980-2008. E as justificativas para desenvolver um trabalho dessa natureza foram fornecidas tanto pelos reconhecidos efeitos críticos, sociais e econômicos, provenientes da incorporação desses programas pelas economias nacionais, quanto pelas atuais controvérsias teóricas existentes sobre a pertinência desses programas e as razões que levaram o Fundo Monetário a promover a política macroeconômica, neles contidos. A hipótese aqui trabalhada é que os programas macroeconômicos de ajuste desenvolvidos e implantados pelo FMI, indiferentemente aplicado nas diversas economias nacionais e após o período da chamada crise da dívida, buscou viabilizar e foi resultado do atendimento às regras normativas e simbólicas instituídas no momento e ao longo do período no qual se dá a apropriação dos recursos reais nos Estados Centrais, pela classe dos banqueiros. E esta apropriação dos recursos reais por essa classe significou, por seu lado, o rompimento da coalização política do pós-guerra, onde o Estado de Bem-Estar Social tomou corpo, induzindo a uma mudança histórica genuína para a efetivação de um novo tempo histórico. Desse ponto de vista, essa mudança produziu um rearranjo no interior das teorias políticas e econômicas em uso pelo Fundo, implicando em diversas tentativas, de sua parte, para a reconstrução dos postulados econômicos os mais básicos, os quais serviram de parâmetro de ação para a instituição, no longo período do após a Segunda Guerra Mundial. Ocorre que, nesse momento no qual aparentava sua maior vitalidade com intervenções nas diversas economias nacionais, assistiu-se, isso sim, a uma crise de legitimidade em sua ação e em seus postulados teóricos, induzida por aquelas mudanças mais gerais, que travaram sua melhor atuação. Assim, um dos focos da tese será o de demonstrar, justamente, como essas mudanças se deram no FMI. Os aspectos teórico-metodológicos aqui desenvolvidos fazem uso, primeiro, das postulações lançadas por M. DOBB acerca da contribuição de J. SCHUMPETER no sentido da compreensão dos modelos macroeconômicos como uma concepção e instrumento de natureza política ideológica. Segundo, utiliza-se da leitura confirmativa de M. BLAUG no mesmo sentido de que os modelos de análise econômica ocultam, sem rejeitar, suas premissas heurísticas. Estas serão trazidas para o interior das concepções e modelos teóricos que balizam os modelos analíticos e operacionais dando suporte para as proposições macro microeconômicas e aparecem, nesses modelos, na forma de uma intromissão de ideologias, valores e interesses políticos, dentro dos programas e das sugestões de políticas econômicas, em geral. Terceiro, utiliza-se de uma larga tradição, reavivada por K. MARX e não encerrada com este, que afirma a pertinência da política como o veículo por onde modelos teóricos, concepções e pressuposições são pensadas como alimentadas pelos contextos históricos e, em simultâneo será parte da consolidação simbólica, ou não, desses mesmos contextos. Quando tais aspectos teórico-metodológicos são aplicados àquela hipótese de trabalho o resultado obtido permitiu explicar e compreender que os programas de ajustes do Fundo Monetário e as evidências de suas políticas surtiram efeitos significativos, ao confirmá-la, sobre a atual tendência financerizada do capitalismo mundial. Mas, ao final, constituindo-se no veículo para a expansão, a partir das economias centrais para as demais economias de industrialização tardia, desses novos interesses da classe dos financistas o FMI teve sua atuação histórica, em seus termos originais, esgotada. Se correto o exposto, conseguiu-se clarear e contribuir no entendimento dessas questões, tratadas no corpo do trabalho ora apresentado

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T14:53:28Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alberio Neves Filho.pdf: 1997150 bytes, checksum: 566d8ff8b3c8f13ffb17e050d94da052 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-03-28 / Following doctoral thesis developed in terms of qualification project of post-graduate studies program in social sciences from the Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo. The goal of the thesis presented here is to examine the political assumptions expressed in macroeconomic models of the International Monetary Fund adjustment and the political conditions necessary for its implementation, in the period 1980-2008. And justifications to develop a work of this nature were provided both by the recognized critical social and economic effects, as the current theoretical controversies existing on the pertinence of such programs and the reasons that led the IMF to promote macroeconomic policy, contained therein. The hypothesis explored here is that macroeconomic adjustment programmes developed and deployed by the IMF, indifferently applied in the various national economies and after the period of the so-called debt crisis, sought to make and was a result of complying with regulatory rules and symbolic imposed at the time and throughout the period in which gives the ownership of real resources in the Central States, by class of bankers. From this point of view, this change produced a rearrangement within the economic and political theories in use by the Fund, implying several attempts on your part, to the economic reconstruction of the most basic postulates, which formed the action parameter to the institution, in the long period from after World War II. The theoretical-methodological aspects are developed here, first, use of the postulates laid by M. DOBB on the SCHUMPETER s contribution towards the understanding of macroeconomic models as a political instrument design and ideological. Second, it uses the reading confirms M. BLAUG in the same sense that economic analysis models, hide, without rejecting their premises heuristics. It is used also of a long tradition, revived by K. MARX and not closed in this, which affirms the relevance of politics as the vehicle through which theoretical models, concepts and assumptions are thought of as fed by historical contexts and, at the same time will be part of the consolidation symbolic or not, these same contexts. When such theoretical-methodological aspects are applied to that working hypothesis to explain the study results and understand that the adjustment programmes of the International Monetary Fund and the evidence of their policies have had significant effects, to confirm it, about the current trend financialisation of the world capitalism. If correct, the exposed, lighten and contribute to the understanding of these issues were addressed in the body of work now submitted / Segue Tese de Doutorado desenvolvido nos termos do projeto de qualificação do Programa de Estudos Pósgraduados em Ciências Sociais da Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo. O objetivo da tese ora apresentada é o de examinar os pressupostos políticos expressos nos modelos macroeconômicos de ajuste do Fundo Monetário Internacional e as condições políticas necessárias à sua efetivação, no período de 1980-2008. E as justificativas para desenvolver um trabalho dessa natureza foram fornecidas tanto pelos reconhecidos efeitos críticos, sociais e econômicos, provenientes da incorporação desses programas pelas economias nacionais, quanto pelas atuais controvérsias teóricas existentes sobre a pertinência desses programas e as razões que levaram o Fundo Monetário a promover a política macroeconômica, neles contidos. A hipótese aqui trabalhada é que os programas macroeconômicos de ajuste desenvolvidos e implantados pelo FMI, indiferentemente aplicado nas diversas economias nacionais e após o período da chamada crise da dívida, buscou viabilizar e foi resultado do atendimento às regras normativas e simbólicas instituídas no momento e ao longo do período no qual se dá a apropriação dos recursos reais nos Estados Centrais, pela classe dos banqueiros. E esta apropriação dos recursos reais por essa classe significou, por seu lado, o rompimento da coalização política do pós-guerra, onde o Estado de Bem-Estar Social tomou corpo, induzindo a uma mudança histórica genuína para a efetivação de um novo tempo histórico. Desse ponto de vista, essa mudança produziu um rearranjo no interior das teorias políticas e econômicas em uso pelo Fundo, implicando em diversas tentativas, de sua parte, para a reconstrução dos postulados econômicos os mais básicos, os quais serviram de parâmetro de ação para a instituição, no longo período do após a Segunda Guerra Mundial. Ocorre que, nesse momento no qual aparentava sua maior vitalidade com intervenções nas diversas economias nacionais, assistiu-se, isso sim, a uma crise de legitimidade em sua ação e em seus postulados teóricos, induzida por aquelas mudanças mais gerais, que travaram sua melhor atuação. Assim, um dos focos da tese será o de demonstrar, justamente, como essas mudanças se deram no FMI. Os aspectos teórico-metodológicos aqui desenvolvidos fazem uso, primeiro, das postulações lançadas por M. DOBB acerca da contribuição de J. SCHUMPETER no sentido da compreensão dos modelos macroeconômicos como uma concepção e instrumento de natureza política ideológica. Segundo, utiliza-se da leitura confirmativa de M. BLAUG no mesmo sentido de que os modelos de análise econômica ocultam, sem rejeitar, suas premissas heurísticas. Estas serão trazidas para o interior das concepções e modelos teóricos que balizam os modelos analíticos e operacionais dando suporte para as proposições macro microeconômicas e aparecem, nesses modelos, na forma de uma intromissão de ideologias, valores e interesses políticos, dentro dos programas e das sugestões de políticas econômicas, em geral. Terceiro, utiliza-se de uma larga tradição, reavivada por K. MARX e não encerrada com este, que afirma a pertinência da política como o veículo por onde modelos teóricos, concepções e pressuposições são pensadas como alimentadas pelos contextos históricos e, em simultâneo será parte da consolidação simbólica, ou não, desses mesmos contextos. Quando tais aspectos teórico-metodológicos são aplicados àquela hipótese de trabalho o resultado obtido permitiu explicar e compreender que os programas de ajustes do Fundo Monetário e as evidências de suas políticas surtiram efeitos significativos, ao confirmá-la, sobre a atual tendência financerizada do capitalismo mundial. Mas, ao final, constituindo-se no veículo para a expansão, a partir das economias centrais para as demais economias de industrialização tardia, desses novos interesses da classe dos financistas o FMI teve sua atuação histórica, em seus termos originais, esgotada. Se correto o exposto, conseguiu-se clarear e contribuir no entendimento dessas questões, tratadas no corpo do trabalho ora apresentado

The neo-liberal policies of liberalization and deregulation, as utilized by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its dealings with countries of the developing world, tend to facilitate the conditions for financial crisis. This can be traced by examining the economic crises of Mexico in 1982 and 1994/95, Asia in 1997 and Russia in 1998 and looking at the main causes and triggers of these crises. It is evident that the financial vulnerability that these countries suffered from existed due to, and not in spite of, these policy prescriptions. The IMF continues to present these policies as proven successes - a view that this dissertation contests. Further to this, the policies that the Fund uses are formulated for use in semi-peripheral economies and have little relationship to the actual economic environments of peripheral countries such as those of sub-Saharan Africa or Papua New Guinea. The ideology of free-markets and globalization is seen as unassailable by the IMF. By encouraging countries to remain part of the global financial system through debt rescheduling and open-markets policies, the IMF holds an increasingly fragile economic environment together. This dissertation formulates and tests four hypotheses in relation to Mexico, Asia, Russia and Papua New Guinea and the periphery. These are - (1) If there are periods of 'irrational exuberance' among investors in Third World debt, these are likely to contribute to debt crises. (2) If IMF policies are implemented in the Third World as dictated, then their primary benefits will accrue to the elites in those countries and in the developed world. (3) If Third World countries open their economies to foreign capital, then they are more likely to experience debt crises. (4) If IMF policies are implemented in peripheral countries, then they are even less likely to be successful than in semi-peripheral countries.

Investigating how lending programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) affect poverty and inequality, we explicitly address model uncertainty. We control for endogenous selection into IMF programs using data on 86 low- and middle income countries for the 1982-2009 period and analyze program effects on various poverty and inequality measures. The results rely on averaging over 90 specifications of treatment effect models and indicate adverse short-run effects of IMF agreements on poverty and inequality for the whole sample, while for a 2000-2009 subsample the results are reversed. There is evidence that significant short-run effects might disappear in the long-run. (author's abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

金融市場常常受到政治、經濟與社會環境等因素所影響，所得到價格為眾多變數交互作用的結果，包含了許多雜訊。本文引進一套數據處理方法「整體經驗模態分解」(Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition，EEMD)來分析「期貨市場」以及「預測市場」。第一個實證利用EEMD處理台股期貨，分析對台股指數的解釋能力，並同時與原始台股期貨預測台股指數，比較預測結果；第二個實證利用EEMD來分析預測市場，判別是否能有效的消除雜訊，準確預測選舉結果。 第一個實證結果發現，EEMD能有效地過濾期貨市場的雜訊，另外，在最後到期日前十二天或者是前九天，以週期為6.5日經EEMD處理的台股期貨對台股指數的預測較原始台股期貨預測準確；第二個實證結果指出，直接利用EEMD處理預測市場得到的長期趨勢「剩餘訊號」(Residue)來預測選舉並無優於原始預測市場，主因為預測市場參與者不只在乎長期趨勢，亦在乎短期事件的衝擊，故直接利用剩餘訊號預測選舉結果會有所失真，而將剩餘訊號由低頻率之「本質模態函數」(Intrinsic Modes Function，IMF)合併至週期為6日與12日的IMF，得到了EEMD週趨勢價格，分成選前一天和選前十天的資料並與原始預測市場以及民調預測做比較，從不同的準則來看，發現以EEMD週趨勢價格來做選舉預測，準確度較原始預測市場與民調預測的結果更好。根據中選會2012年初選前對選罷法做成的解釋，未來事件交易所在選前十日亦須停止交易，我們可將EEMD運用在日後的選舉預測，把預測市場的合約價格以EEMD處理，應可提高選舉預測的準確度。 / The financial markets are usually affected by political, economic and social environment factors, and thus the volatilities of asset prices in these markets are subject to a lot of noises and shocks. To filter out noises and quantify shocks, this paper applies a data processing method, Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), and demonstrates its improved prediction to the futures and election prediction markets. While the first empirical application shows that the EEMD effectively filters out the noises in the futures market, the second one indicates that the Taiwanese election prediction using EEMD “residue” is not as accurate as that by original data from the prediction market. The reason why the residue cannot serve as a good predictor is that the market participants consider not only the long-term trend, but also shocks, especially those right before the elections. We then attempt to predict the election outcomes by the week trend series processed by EEMD. The prediction by the week EEMD trend series turns out to be more accurate than that by the poll and original prediction market. Based on this study, we can apply the EEMD to the next election prediction and improve its accuracy.

Submitted by Paula Magalhães (paulakmagalhaes@gmail.com) on 2017-05-24T17:25:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Paula Magalhaes Dissertacao.pdf: 437299 bytes, checksum: 5ee7ce9b3eb164a2bd2068b1d47f4c92 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2017-05-24T19:26:49Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Paula Magalhaes Dissertacao.pdf: 437299 bytes, checksum: 5ee7ce9b3eb164a2bd2068b1d47f4c92 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-25T12:11:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Paula Magalhaes Dissertacao.pdf: 437299 bytes, checksum: 5ee7ce9b3eb164a2bd2068b1d47f4c92 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-05-11 / Este artigo trata do papel do Fundo Monetário Internacional como um agente sênior, fato observado empiricamente. Um agente soberano sujeito a um choque estocástico deve tomar emprestado para suavizar seu consumo. O mercado financeiro internacional oferece seus fundos, contudo cobra um prêmio por dividir o risco sobre o choque com o governo. O FMI, embora sênior, empresta a uma taxa menor. Encontramos as condições sob as quais a presença do FMI em tal mercado é relevante e positiva ao agente emprestador. Tais condições dependerão do tamanho do prêmio de risco cobrado, que em nossa análise é dado exogenamente. / This paper addresses the role of the International Monetary Fund in the international monetary economy as a senior agent, as observed empirically. A sovereign agent subject to a stochastic shock must borrow to smooth out consumption. The international financial market offers fund, however it charges a premium for sharing the risk over the shock with the government. The IMF, however senior, lends at a lower rate. Hence, the sovereign government must choose its borrower. We find conditions under which the IMF presence in such market is relevant and positive to the borrowing agent. Such conditions will depend on the size of the risk premium charged, which in our analysis will be exogenously given

This study explores the practical and ideological implications of the New Public Management (NPM) paradigm as introduced in Greece by the so-called “Troika”, a sobriquet referring to a triumvirate comprising representatives of the IMF, the European Union, and the European Central Bank. In the past, attempts had been made by Greek officials to implement managerial practices within the Greek National Health Service (NHS) and the hospital sector in particular, albeit at a more leisurely pace than that of other countries’. On arrival to Greece the Troika imposed a number of changes to improve the country’s public services; and set a brisk pace to accelerate their implementation. The present doctoral thesis seeks to critically evaluate the issue of whether those reforms, especially those salient to the Greek NHS system, are true manifestations of a shift in the NPM paradigm or whether they represent yet another archetypal Greek public sector restructuring. It will also evaluate responses to and outcomes of the successive reforms in the Greece’s NHS system, ascertain the factors contributing to and/or impeding the adoption of those reforms, and identify new opportunities for growth. In order to gain access to a more profound insight into the Greek context, the collection of secondary data provides, among other things, an historical background of Greece’s public healthcare system; reviews the system’s characteristics in terms of healthcare policies, and probes into the state of working conditions within public hospitals. The heightened managerial spirit prevalent in Greece at the moment and brought about by the Troika’s tenure, has made it necessary for the literature review of the present work to focus on the ways that managerial practices and ideologies are imposed on other countries so that their public sector dysfunctionalities may be rectified. Drawing on the literature reviewed, the study develops an integrated analytical framework anchored in NPM, so as to test it in the Greek case and contribute to understanding the Greek NHS organisational realities as well as to evaluating how the new changes have been evolving and faring within Greece’s healthcare organisations. The framework is comprised of a review of the NPM paradigm so as to contextualise the Greek reforms in terms of ideology and practices; a review of Principal-Agent Theory (PAT) for illuminating the interrelationships and involvement of the key actors with the reforms; and a review of Critical Realism (CR) for assisting to reveal the underlying mechanisms and structures that bind the actors with the organisations and their development. Apart from providing the conceptual basis of the thesis, the framework also serves in informing its methodological design (i.e., generating the interview schedule), analysing the findings, and steering the discussion. The study adopts an in-depth, qualitative research approach that views social life within organisations in terms of processes, events, actions, and activities between key actors as factors unfolding over time. To that purpose, semi-structured interviews were conducted with the key stakeholders of the Greek NHS system: State hospital doctors, hospital managers, and policymakers. The contribution of the study is an in-depth analysis of reform implementation as carried out in Greece’s medical system which now stands, within a turbulent economic and political context. By means of that analytical framework, it is shown that Greece is a sui generis case whose context and historical background are altogether different than those of other countries’. Moreover, the framework demonstrates that, despite the fact that NPM is firmly ensconced, as far as practice and ideology go, it is too soon to be drawing any conclusions: NPM is still in its infancy and reforms to the Greek NHS system have yet to be finalised as they continuously stumble on the inefficiencies and blunders of the past which hinder them from functioning properly. Last, the thesis does possess one more unique feature: it delves into the thinking, manoeuvres, and behaviour of the Greek healthcare professionals as a group, a world rarely if ever explored by empirical studies.

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