This paper examines how debt cancellation, given under the HIPC-initiative, has affected corruption over the period 2000-2006. The examination is foremost interesting due to earlier research showing that high corruption leads to unequal distribution of economic resources. This, combined with the objective of the HIPC initiative to reduce poverty, indicates that combating corruption must be successful in order to fulfill the goals of the initiative. A linear regression shows that countries that have benefited from the HIPC-initiative indeed have a lower corruption than other countries. A panel-data analysis shows on the other hand that no effect on corruption due to debt cancellation or reforms undertaken in the program can be confirmed.

Investigating how lending programs of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) affect poverty and inequality, we explicitly address model uncertainty. We control for endogenous selection into IMF programs using data on 86 low- and middle income countries for the 1982-2009 period and analyze program effects on various poverty and inequality measures. The results rely on averaging over 90 specifications of treatment effect models and indicate adverse short-run effects of IMF agreements on poverty and inequality for the whole sample, while for a 2000-2009 subsample the results are reversed. There is evidence that significant short-run effects might disappear in the long-run. (author's abstract)

As a culturally distinctive region, Asia was chosen as the sample for this study. This empirical study investigated what the major trends of democratisation were in Asia between 1981 and 2005: why some countries became democratic while other countries failed to follow suit during that period. The main research hypothesis was: “That is it was mainly economic development that drove democratisation in Asia between 1981 and 2005”. Although some studies have studied the impact of economic development on democratisation in Asia, their findings have been inconclusive and focuses sometimes different. [To investigate the research hypothesis, 24 Asian countries were selected…measurement tools used etc…] For this research work, statistical and case study methods were applied. The data used in the analyses were collected from established data sources e.g. Freedom House (Freedom in the World, n.d.) and United Nations Statistics Division (UN Stat, n.d.). Repeated Measures in Linear Mixed Modeling (LMM) were used to analyse the quantitative data. Three case studies supplemented the findings of statistical analyses. Historical information and institutional and legal facts were also used in the case studies. This study found that increases in the level of economic development along with its equitable distribution in society and positive roles of political actors increase the level of democratisation in Asia. Some pro-democratic political and social institutions, such as tradition of parliamentarianism, and international organisations, for example Bretton wood institutions, also led to democratisation. A low extent of national political divide was found to result in a considerably high level of democratisation in a country where confrontation between major political forces is the main feature of politics. This study also found that a partial democracy with Asian values, economic legitimacy, a lack of corruption and a “systematic control” over opposition politicians can survive, and is not prone to higher level of democratisation. The Taiwan case revealed that, amongst other factors, the role of political actors and economic equity along with economic development is also vital for democratisation. The Singapore case explained how a “hybrid regime” in a rich country outsmarts democratisation. The study of Bangladesh provides an idea about other elements, e.g. lower level of political confrontation, that push for higher levels of democratisation.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / A presente dissertação busca demonstrar o comportamento da União Europeia como um ator unitário nas Organizações Internacionais. Com o aprofundamento da integração europeia e seus desdobramentos institucionais, é possível perceber o surgimento de um novo ator no cenário internacional, que engloba 27 Estados e vem ganhando força impactando nas negociações internacionais. Através de dois estudos de caso, a pesquisa demonstra a actorness da União Europeia e o seu comportamento em duas Organizações Internacionais, o Fundo Monetário Internacional e a Organização Mundial do Comércio. / The present dissertation seeks to analyse the European Union behaviour as a unitary actor in the International Organizations. As the European integration deepens, along with its institutional unfolding, it`s possible to perceive that a new actor has come to light in the international scenario, enclosing 27 countries and that has been strengthen up to the point to impact in international negotiations. Through two case studies, this research presents the European Union actorness and its behaviour in two International Organizations, the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization.

Submitted by Oz Iazdi (oz@cinestec.com.br) on 2013-06-11T23:34:10Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Oz_rev.pdf: 742508 bytes, checksum: 46a5da3060da347500ec1a6ace068bbd (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-06-12T16:14:06Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Oz_rev.pdf: 742508 bytes, checksum: 46a5da3060da347500ec1a6ace068bbd (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-06-12T16:39:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Oz_rev.pdf: 742508 bytes, checksum: 46a5da3060da347500ec1a6ace068bbd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-05-17 / The credit lines granted by the IMF in a liquidity crisis environment differ in their conditionalities. In some situations, the resources are borrowed without the need of mandatory conditionalities to be met by the borrowers. On the other hand, there are cases when the resources are granted only after the country fulfill these conditions. This paper aims to build a model which shows the tradeoffs that arise between the conditionalities that IMF imposes to give access of the credit lines by the countries. Additionally, the model tries to understand when it’s better an immediate assistance or a conditional assistance. Conditional loans increase the incentives for fiscal measures that improve the country capacity in paying its sovereign debt (because the loans aren’t granted if the country doesn’t carry out the measures), but the immediate assistance has the advantage in alleviate liquidity costs. The model shows that the incentive of the country in paying its sovereign debt is concave on the conditionality, meaning that, in extreme cases, the best type of conditionality is ex-ante (immediate assistance upon pre-established conditions) or ex-post (assistance conditional on the fulfillment of conditionalities). Nonetheless, in cases when both the immediate liquidity assistance and conditional assistance increase the incentives of payment, the conditionalities take on a complementary character. The results corroborate the IMF credit lines designs because there are facilities that contemplate both types of conditionalities and others that contemplate only one of them. / As linhas de crédito concedidas pelo FMI em casos de crises de liquidez diferem quanto às condições impostas aos credores. Em alguns casos, os recursos são emprestados sem a imposição de condições a serem cumpridas pelo país devedor. Em outros casos, os recursos são liberados depois que o país cumpriu as chamadas condicionalidades. O trabalho constrói um modelo teórico para estudar os trade-offs envolvidos nas condicionalidades que o FMI impõe ao conceder linhas de crédito. O modelo procura entender em quais momentos é melhor um auxílio imediato do FMI ou um auxílio condicional. Empréstimos condicionais aumentam os incentivos para medidas fiscais que melhoram a capacidade do país pagar a dívida (pois os empréstimos não são concedidos se essas medidas não são tomadas), mas um auxílio imediato tem a vantagem de economizar custos de liquidez. O modelo mostra que o incentivo do país para pagar sua dívida soberana é côncavo na condicionalidade. Isso significa que, em casos extremos, o melhor tipo de condicionalidade é o ex-ante (auxílio imediato mediante condições pre-estabelecidas) ou o ex-post (auxílio contingente ao cumprimento das condicionalidades). No entanto, em casos nos quais tanto uma ajuda de liquidez imediata, quanto o empréstimo condicional às mudanças na política fiscal aumentam o incentivo do país pagar a dívida, as condicionalidades assumem um caráter de complementaridade. O resultado corrobora o desenho das linhas de crédito do FMI, já que há desenhos que contemplam tanto as duas condicionalidades quanto apenas uma delas.

Cette thèse en politique économique internationale analyse à travers 4 chapitres les facteurs influençant la prise de décision en se focalisant sur les trajectoires des décideurs. Le premier chapitre montre que les membres du Conseil d’Administration (CA) du Fonds Monétaire International (FMI) ont un avantage considérable en matière de prêt et de remboursement sur les autres membres du FMI à travers des réseaux informels développés par leur simple présence aux réunions de CA du FMI à Washington DC. Le second chapitre met l’accent sur les trajectoires de carrière des membres du CA du FMI avant et après leur poste au sein de cette institution et comment ces trajectoires influent les prêts et les modalités de remboursement des pays emprunteurs. Dans un troisième chapitre, nous cherchons à savoir si les années de récession connues par les Présidents des Banques Centrales des pays occidentaux sont en mesure d’influencer leur gestion de ces institutions. Enfin, le quatrième chapitre propose un modèle d’économie politique des réformes en montrant l’importance des syndicats des travailleurs ainsi que des transferts de richesse de la part des gouvernements vers les populations, sur la mise en œuvre des réformes au sein des pays de l’OCDE. Cette thèse montre qu’à l’instar des décideurs nationaux qui ont tendance à influencer directement la vie économique des pays, les décideurs internationaux de par leurs histoires, leurs identités et leurs expériences de vie, peuvent également influencer la sphère économique des pays. / This thesis in international political economy analyses factors influencing the decision-taking focusing on the trajectories of policy-makers across 4 chapters. The first chapter shows that the IMF’s Executive Board (EB) members have a considerable advantage on other IMF members in terms of loans and repayments through informal networks developed by their simple presence on the IMF’s EB at Washington DC. The second chapter focuses on the IMF’s EB career trajectories before and after their position, and how these trajectories influence loans and repayment modalities of borrowing countries. In a third chapter, we want to know in what extend central bankers’ recession experiences tend to lead them to decrease the interest rates of central banks. Finally, the fourth chapter proposes a model of political economy of reforms showing the importance of unions and transfers from governments to populations concerning the implementation of reforms in OECD countries. This thesis shows that, as national policy-makers which tend to directly influence the economic life, international policy-makers, through their stories, identities and life experiences, can also influence the economic sphere of countries.

Diploma thesis deals with the recovery of the Icelandic economy after the financial crisis that affected the country in 2008. The thesis is divided into four main chapters. The first chapter focuses on theoretical view on the financial crisis and the typology of each crisis. The second chapter describes pre-crisis economic development, triggers and the subsequent collapse of the banking sector. The third chapter deals with the impacts of the crisis on selected economic indicators, evaluation of the assistance provided by International Monetary Fund and outlines the issue of capital controls that were relatively controversial element of the IMF program. The last chapter discusses the question of joining the European Union in relation to the crisis and also describes the major difficult point of negotiation, namely fishing.

No description available.

Iran, with its attractive geographical position and its abundant natural resources, has had an undeniable attraction for the world's greatest powers over the history. Well before the creation of the Islamic Republic of Iran, this country established high level of economic interactions with a great variety of political partners. In recent years, the country's change of regime has had a crucial impact on those relationships. By analysing the trade data between Iran and Western countries (the U.S.A., Canada, the U.K., France, Germany, and Italy) as well as the major Eastern countries (China, Russia, and India), it is possible to establish a better understanding of how political events have impacted Iran's commerce with the world's major economic players. It is also possible to understand how the change of direction of the Iranian's imports and exports can impact the behavior of the other nations studied. This research focuses on the analysis of Iranian trade since 1969, ten years before the revolution and until 2009.

本研究旨在探討於低瀰的全球經濟，與全球化影響導致高競爭低獲利的貿易商如何利用所持有之外幣，做最佳的現金管理並創造相當程度之非營業收入。 國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）於2014年 10 月發布的《世界經濟展望報告》（World Economic Outlook），預測 2015年全球經濟增長小幅下調至3.8%，2015年 10 月發布，預測2016 年世界經濟增長率下調為 3.4%，今年 10月4日預測本年度全球經濟增長仍然疲弱，又降為３.１％。 IMF 5度下修全球經濟，對於2016年全球經濟成長的預測只有3.1％，比起過去十年平均的4.5％遠遠不如，由上述數據顯示可知全球經濟逐年緩減，而目前幾大政治議題與問題諸如：美國總統大選與德義法三國2017年大選後的歐美經濟後勢難料、歐洲移民問題、恐攻問題、中國成長減速等等，均將使未來全球經濟雪上加霜。值此低通膨低利率的全球經濟局面，貿易市場只縮不長，加上全球化競爭、去中間化意識抬頭與網路平台崛起，貿易商訂單被分食，獲利因而縮減。 有鑑於此，貿易商如何開拓多角化經營以增加收入，實為亟需探討的主題，也是開啟本研究動機的主要緣由。本研究根據分析方法的應用，探討貿易商投入營業外收入的投資業務後之商業模式，依分析結果得到以下研究發現：一、兌換收益在貿易商營業外收入占比最高；二、營業外收入可活化貿易商的資產與資本；三、短期閒置外匯資金運用得宜可做有效現金管理，並實際增加整體收益；四、高度風險控管之特定金融投資商品的費用成本與人力消耗最低；五、金融投資管道平台的優劣關係著營業外收入的多寡；六、金融投資商品的營業外收入之商業模式是可複製的營利模式。