With deregulation, diagnosis and maintenance of power equipment, especially power transformers, become increasingly important to keep power systems in reliable operation. This dissertation systematically studied two kinds of transformer failure and abnormality cases, and then developed a new Internet based Virtual Hospital (VH) for power equipment to help power equipment diagnosis and maintenance. A practical case of generator-step-up (GSU) transformer failures in a pumped storage plant was extensively studied. Abnormal electrical phenomena associated with GSU transformers, including switching transients and very fast transients (VFT), and lightning, were analyzed. Simulation showed that circuit breaker restriking could be a major cause of transformer successive failures, and current surge arrester configuration did not provide enough lightning protection to GSU transformers. Mitigation of abnormal electrical phenomena effects on GSU transformers was proposed and discussed. The study can be a complete reference of troubleshooting of other similar transformer failures. Geomagnetically induced current (GIC) is another possible cause of transformer abnormality. A simplified method based on the equivalent magnetizing curve for transformers with different core design was developed and validated to estimate harmonic currents and MVar drawn by power transformers with a given GIC. An effective indicator was proposed using partial harmonic distortion, PHD, to show when the transformer begins saturating with the input GIC. The developed method has been applied to a real time GIC monitoring system last year for a large power network with thousands of transformers. A new Internet based Virtual Hospital (VH) for Power Equipment was conceptually developed to share experience of power equipment diagnosis and maintenance, and update the existing diagnostic techniques and maintenance strategies, and a comprehensive information model was developed for data organization, access, and archiving related to equipment diagnosis and maintenance. An Internet based interactive fault diagnostic tool has been launched for power transformers based on dissolved gas analysis (DGA). The above results and findings can help improving power equipment diagnosis and utility maintenance strategies. / Ph. D.

De flesta produktionsbranscher i Sverige har haft en positiv teknisk utveckling med digitaliserade verksamheter, och därmed effektivare processer. Byggbranschen är den bransch som det har tagit mycket längre tid för att implementera digitaliserade arbetssätt och metoder, och beskrivs oftast som en konservativ bransch. Denna utveckling har dock accelererat under senare år, och BIM (Buliding Information Modelling) har blivit allt mer känt inom byggindustrin.Syftet med arbetet var att undersöka hur mycket BIM egentligen används i byggbranschen, och vilka de rådande orsakerna är till varför det inte används hos alla aktörer. Metoden som har tillämpats i studien utgörs av en förstudie i form av en enkät, där olika aktörer har beskrivit hur BIM tillämpas i deras verksamhet samt vilka de verkliga problemen är för utvecklingen av BIM. Utifrån enkätsvar har en djupare studie utförts i form av intervjuer av olika aktörer.Resultatet visar att det snarare är okunskap, användarvänlighet och bristfällig samverkan som motverkar utveckling av BIM-processen. För att komma ifrån det konservativa så behöver dessa faktorer angripas, om effektivare processer ska tillföras branschen.Slutsatsen om varför BIM inte används dras av resultaten ovan. Processen används till en viss del, men inte i den utsträckning som det teoretiskt är avsett. Den sträcker sig inte ut över hela byggprocessen, och är mest utvecklad i projekteringsskedet. Processen tillämpas fram till övergången mellan de olika skedena, och beror på bristfälliga kravställningar och samarbeten mellan aktörer och beställare. En lösning är att öka BIM-kunskapen och utveckla en gemensam plattform för alla aktörer i alla skeden, där kravet på BIM ska vara en självklarhet i projekten. Detta genom en framtagen implementeringsmodell anpassad efter de svar och önskemål som förekommit i studien. / Most production sectors in Sweden have had a positive technical development with digitized operations, and thus more efficient processes. The construction industry is the industry that has taken much longer to implement digitized working methods and methods, and is usually described as a conservative industry. However, this development has accelerated in recent years, and BIM (Buliding Information Modeling) has become increasingly known in the construction industry. The purpose of the work was to investigate how much BIM is actually used in the construction industry, and what the prevailing reasons are why it is not used by all actors. The method used in the study consists of a preliminary study in the form of a survey, where different actors have described how BIM is applied in their operations and what the real problems are for the development of BIM. Based on questionnaire responses, a deeper study has been conducted in the form of interviews by different actors. The result shows that it is rather ignorance, user friendliness and inadequate collaboration that counteract the development of the BIM process. To get rid of the conservative, these factors need to be addressed if more efficient processes are to be supplied to the industry.The conclusion about why BIM is not used is deducted from the results above. The process is used to a certain extent, but not to the extent that it is theoretically intended. It does not extend throughout the entire construction process, and is most developed in the design phase. The process is applied to the transition between the different stages, and is due to insufficient demands and cooperation between actors and developer. One solution is to increase BIM knowledge and develop a common platform for all actors at all stages, where the requirement for BIM should be a matter of course in the projects. This through an implemented implementation-model adapted to the responses and wishes that have been found in the study.

Цель данного исследования заключается в решении проблемы автоматизации проверки спецификаций на полноту данных на основе цифровой информационной модели. Для достижения этой цели была поставлена задача – разработка скрипта в Dynamo для автоматизации данной проверки. Гипотеза исследования заключается в том, что данная разработка позволит сократить количество ошибок, связанных с расхождением объемов материалов, требуемых на практике, с указанными в документации. В результате исследования разработан скрипт, реализующий данную проверку, выдающий список элементов, не попавших в спецификации. / The purpose of this research is to solve the problem of automating the process of specifications verification for data completeness checking based on a digital information model. To achieve this goal, it was decided to develop a script in Dynamo. The research hypothesis is that this automation will decrease the number of errors associated with discrepancies between the required volumes of materials in practice and those specified in the documentation. As a result of the research, a script was developed which realized this checking and formed a list of lost elements.

Existe uma noção intuitiva de que os custos associados a ações de suporte de projetos de gerenciamento de Tecnologia da Informação (TI), muitas vezes considerados já muito elevados e em crescimento, possuem forte vinculação com esforços empreendidos nas fases de desenvolvimento/implantação e teste. Apesar da importância de caracterizar e compreender a sistemática dessa relação, pouco tem sido feito neste domínio, principalmente devido à falta de mecanismos adequados tanto para o compartilhamento de informações entre as fases de um projeto de TI, quanto para aprender com experiências passadas. Para lidar com essa problemática, propõe-se nesta dissertação uma abordagem para estimar dinamicamente os custos de suporte de projetos de gerenciamento de TI à luz de informações provenientes das fases de desenvolvimento/implantação e teste. As estimativas de custos são calculadas a partir da integração de informações produzidas ao longo do ciclo de vida de projetos (passados). O núcleo da solução presente neste trabalho conta com um modelo Bayesiano para realizar previsão de custos de suporte, apoiado em um modelo de informação usado para persistir informações históricas. Para provar conceito e viabilidade técnica da solução proposta considerou-se, como estudo de caso, a predição de custos associados com projetos de implantação de infraestrutura de redes sem fio. Durante a avaliação é demonstrada a eficácia e eficiência do modelo, bem como discutido suas potencialidades e limitações para auxiliar no entendimento do compromisso entre custos de desenvolvimento/ implantação, teste e suporte. A avaliação conduzida fez uso de dados reais/sintéticos produzidos a partir de projetos do ISBSG e apresenta resultados próximos dos encontrados em cenários reais. Nossa abordagem obteve cerca de 80% de acerto na estimativa dos custos de suporte para os cenários avaliados. / There is an intuitive notion that the costs associated with IT management project support actions, often deemed extremely high and increasing, are directly related to the effort spent during their development/deployment and test phases. Despite the importance of systematically characterizing and understanding this relationship, little has been done in this realm mainly due to the lack of proper mechanisms for both sharing information between IT project phases and learning from past experientes. To tackle this issue, in this dissertation we proposed an approach for dynamically predicting IT management project support costs taking into account information gathered from the development/deployment and test phases. Support cost estimates are computed by integrating existing information from the lifecycle of (past) projects. The core of the solution in this work relies on a Bayesian model to perform support cost predictions, supported by an information model employed to persist historical information gathered from past projects. To prove the concept and technical feasibility of our solution we consider as a case study the prediction of costs (either development/test/support) associated with projects for the deployment of wireless network infrastructures. During the evaluation is demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of the model and discussed its potential and limitations in order to help understanding the trade-offs between development/deployment, test, and support costs. Our solution has been evaluated based on real/synthetics data gathered from the ISBSG dataset, and presents results similar to those found in real-life scenarios. Our solution has provided correct estimates for around 80% of the support costs for the scenarios evaluated.

Det primära syftet med detta examensarbete kan sägas vara att skapa en uppfattning hos Skanska Väg & Anläggning Sydost, som är initiativtagare till detta examensarbete, om vad BIM (Building Information Model) är och hur det lättast kan implementeras i deras arbetsprocesser. Det skulle vara omöjligt att täcka in alla aspekter av BIM under den korta tid som funnits till förfogande och inom ramen för detta examensarbete, därför har de aspekter som ansetts vara viktiga för företaget samt författaren lyfts upp för utredning. För att kunna nå dit har examensarbetet till uppgift att kartlägga och synliggöra de skillnader som finns mellan dagens byggprocess och BIM (Building Information Model) och utifrån det föreslå möjliga sätt att implementera denna arbetsmetod hos Skanska Väg & Anläggning Sydost. I examensarbetets första kapitel ges en kort introduktion och bakgrund till hur byggprocessen förändrats under tidens gång. Ett syfte och en frågeställning formuleras och en avgränsning för examensarbetets omfattning görs. I examensarbetets andra kapitel ges den teoretiska bakgrunden till dagens byggprocess. Viktiga aspekter av dagens byggprocess lyfts fram och förklaras. Därefter följer en presentation av begreppet BIM och vad det innebär. Därefter görs en kort genomgång för hur arbetet med BIM ser ut hos Skanska Sverige AB och generellt i byggbranschen. I examensarbetets tredje kapitel presenteras hur BIM används idag på vägprojekt utanför Katrineholm i ett projekt kallat för Förbifart Katrineholm där BIM tillämpats i viss utsträckning. Skillnaderna som finns mellan dagens byggprocess och BIM samt de för- och nackdelar som kan konstateras hos BIM i relation till dagens byggprocess presenteras. I examensarbetes fjärde kapitel besvaras frågeställningarna och resultatet analyseras samt diskuteras ur viktiga aspekter för byggande, för att i det femte kapitlet komma med konkreta förslag på hur en implementering av BIM i Skanska Väg & Anläggning Sydosts arbetsprocesser kan se ut. / The primary purpose of this thesis can be said to be to create a perception at Skanska Civil Southeast, which is the initiator of this thesis, on what BIM (Building Information Model) is and how it can most easily be implemented in their work processes. It would be impossible to cover all aspects of BIM in the short amount of time that has been available and in the context of this thesis, therefore, the aspects that were deemed important to the company and to the author has been picked up for investigation. To achieve this, the task of the thesis is to identify and highlight the differences between today's construction process, and BIM (Building Information Model) and from that suggest possible ways to implement this way of working to Skanska Civil Southeast. The thesis first chapter provides a brief introduction and background to the construction process and how it has changed over time. A purpose and questions on which the thesis is being based on are formulated and a boundary for the thesis is done. The thesis second chapter provides the theoretical background to today's construction process. Key aspects of today's construction process are highlighted and explained. This is followed by a presentation of the concept of BIM and what it means. After that, a brief review of how the work with BIM looks at Skanska Sweden AB and in the construction industry generally. The thesis third chapter presents how BIM is currently used on a road project just outside of Katrineholm in a project called Förbifart Katrineholm where BIM is being applied to some extent. The differences that exist between today’s construction process and the BIM and the pros and con that can be observed in BIM relative to today's construction process is presented. In the thesis fourth chapter answers the questions and the results are analyzed and discussed on important aspects of construction, to, in the fifth chapter make concrete proposals on how an implementation of BIM in Skanska Civil Southeast work processes may look like.

<p>Kostnaderna att bygga blir allt högre, man tror att byggkostnaderna väntas öka med 25 procent inom de närmaste tre åren. Mest stiger byggherrekostnaden och kostnaderna för byggmaterial och inget tyder på att detta kommer mattas av. Därför ligger det på byggföretagen att effektivisera och optimera projekteringen för att sänka kostnaderna. För att sänka produktions- och projekteringskostnaderna vill byggbranschen gå från hanteringen av traditionella 2D-ritningar till intelligenta 3D-modeller, BIM – Byggnads Informations Modell.</p><p>BIM är en metod för att lagra komplett information om en byggnad i en datormodell. Modellen integrerar all geometrisk modellinformation, de funktionella kraven och möjligheterna samt uppförandeinformationen i en enda beskrivning av ett byggnadsprojekt sett över dess livscykel.</p><p>Vid arbete med ett BIM-projekt använder man en delad projektmodell som alla inblandade parter kan ta del av och jobba med. Med hjälp av denna BIM-baserade arbetsmetod arbetar bland annat byggnadskonstruktörer, vvskonstruktörer, elkonstruktörer och fastighetsförvaltare med samma modell som arkitekten.</p><p>En av de största fördelarna med att använda BIM vid projekteringen är enkelheten att ändra objekt och dess egenskaper. Eftersom alla i projekteringen jobbar med samma modell av byggnaden ser respektive projektör ändringen. Det man strävar efter är att alla inblandade parter skall jobba med modellen från en gemensam server, för att kunna optimera projekteringen med avseende på tid, åtkomst av ritningar och förenklad korrespondens.</p><p>Syftet med vårt examensarbete är att skaffa fördjupad kunskap om BIM, både teoretiskt och praktiskt. Den praktiska delen bestod i att konstruera en BIM-modell av en byggnad. De tillämpningar vi gjort på modellen är en mängdberäkning som vi utfört i ArchiCAD, och en energiberäkning i tilläggsprogrammet Vipweb.</p> / <p>The costs to build is steadily increasing, one believes that the construction costs will increase with 25 percents within the next three years. The cost that will increase the most is proprietor cost and the costs for construction materials, and nothing indicates that this will weak of. Therefore it lies on the construction companies to become more effective and to optimize the project planning in order to lower their costs. To be able to lower the cost for production and project planning the construction industry have to go from the handling of traditional 2D-drawings to intelligent 3D-models, BIM - Building Information Model.</p><p>BIM is a method in order to store complete information about a building in a computer model. The computer model integrates all geometric model information, the functional requirements and possibilities and the behavior information, in only one description of a building project seen over its life cycle.</p><p>While working with a BIM-project one uses a divided project model that all involved parties can take part of and work with. With the aid of this BIM-based work method construction engineers, electrical engineers, heating- ventilation- and sanitation engineers and real estate managers are able work with the same model as the architect.</p><p>One of the biggest advantages with using BIM at project planning is the simplicity to change items and its properties. Since everyone in the project planning is working with same model of the building they can all see the changes that have been made. What one strives for is that all involved parties will work with the model from a common server, in order to optimize the project planning with the focus on time, accessibility of drawings and simplified correspondence.</p><p>The aim with this degree project is to get deepened knowledge about BIM, both theoretical and practical. The practical part consisted in designing a BIM-model of a building. We have used the model to do an amount calculation on the models building parts. This we carried out in ArchiCAD. We also made an energy calculation in the add-on program Vipweb.</p>

Kostnaderna att bygga blir allt högre, man tror att byggkostnaderna väntas öka med 25 procent inom de närmaste tre åren. Mest stiger byggherrekostnaden och kostnaderna för byggmaterial och inget tyder på att detta kommer mattas av. Därför ligger det på byggföretagen att effektivisera och optimera projekteringen för att sänka kostnaderna. För att sänka produktions- och projekteringskostnaderna vill byggbranschen gå från hanteringen av traditionella 2D-ritningar till intelligenta 3D-modeller, BIM – Byggnads Informations Modell. BIM är en metod för att lagra komplett information om en byggnad i en datormodell. Modellen integrerar all geometrisk modellinformation, de funktionella kraven och möjligheterna samt uppförandeinformationen i en enda beskrivning av ett byggnadsprojekt sett över dess livscykel. Vid arbete med ett BIM-projekt använder man en delad projektmodell som alla inblandade parter kan ta del av och jobba med. Med hjälp av denna BIM-baserade arbetsmetod arbetar bland annat byggnadskonstruktörer, vvskonstruktörer, elkonstruktörer och fastighetsförvaltare med samma modell som arkitekten. En av de största fördelarna med att använda BIM vid projekteringen är enkelheten att ändra objekt och dess egenskaper. Eftersom alla i projekteringen jobbar med samma modell av byggnaden ser respektive projektör ändringen. Det man strävar efter är att alla inblandade parter skall jobba med modellen från en gemensam server, för att kunna optimera projekteringen med avseende på tid, åtkomst av ritningar och förenklad korrespondens. Syftet med vårt examensarbete är att skaffa fördjupad kunskap om BIM, både teoretiskt och praktiskt. Den praktiska delen bestod i att konstruera en BIM-modell av en byggnad. De tillämpningar vi gjort på modellen är en mängdberäkning som vi utfört i ArchiCAD, och en energiberäkning i tilläggsprogrammet Vipweb. / The costs to build is steadily increasing, one believes that the construction costs will increase with 25 percents within the next three years. The cost that will increase the most is proprietor cost and the costs for construction materials, and nothing indicates that this will weak of. Therefore it lies on the construction companies to become more effective and to optimize the project planning in order to lower their costs. To be able to lower the cost for production and project planning the construction industry have to go from the handling of traditional 2D-drawings to intelligent 3D-models, BIM - Building Information Model. BIM is a method in order to store complete information about a building in a computer model. The computer model integrates all geometric model information, the functional requirements and possibilities and the behavior information, in only one description of a building project seen over its life cycle. While working with a BIM-project one uses a divided project model that all involved parties can take part of and work with. With the aid of this BIM-based work method construction engineers, electrical engineers, heating- ventilation- and sanitation engineers and real estate managers are able work with the same model as the architect. One of the biggest advantages with using BIM at project planning is the simplicity to change items and its properties. Since everyone in the project planning is working with same model of the building they can all see the changes that have been made. What one strives for is that all involved parties will work with the model from a common server, in order to optimize the project planning with the focus on time, accessibility of drawings and simplified correspondence. The aim with this degree project is to get deepened knowledge about BIM, both theoretical and practical. The practical part consisted in designing a BIM-model of a building. We have used the model to do an amount calculation on the models building parts. This we carried out in ArchiCAD. We also made an energy calculation in the add-on program Vipweb.

The purpose of this study is to facilitate sustainable building by the use of BIM. The goal is to determine which aspects of sustainable building, which can be analyzed mainly with BIM tools, but also other aids. The study is based on literature studies and interviews. The literature review examines aspects important for sustainable building by studying environmental certification systems applicable in Sweden, as well as the BIM tools available on the market to analyze these aspects. The literature also includes the concepts of BIM and sustainability in order to provide a clearer view of its meaning. The interviews have brought the study's overall understanding of the industry and guidance on the subject. The results are presented in a table, where the aspects relevant to sustainable building are listed. It can also be read which aspect the certification systems raise. Overall, the study shows 132 aspects distributed across seven areas: Site, Water and Wastewater, Energy and Pollution, Materials and Waste, Indoor and Wellbeing, City Design and finally Implementation and Management. The table also suggests BIM tools and other aids, which can be used in the analysis of a specific aspect. The study shows a slight majority of the aspects, 55 percent, are possible to analyze with BIM tools. The Site is the area with most aspects, which can be analyzed with BIM tools, 95 percent. And Materials and Waste resulted in least aspects with only ten percent. Overall, the study examined 35 different BIM tools. The aspects that require other means of analysis often generates important information about the project, from a sustainability point of view, and in many cases the information can be integrated in the BIM model manually. In the end, the project gets a packed BIM model with useful information, which follows the project all the way into management and later demolition and recycling. The study shows that sustainable building demands a holistic approach where several aspects should be considered in order to achieve sustainability. To analyze the aspects of sustainability requires that relevant and accurate information about the project be collected. Various proposals can be drawn and compared to generate the most sustainable option. A tool for this is BIM. BIM is defined partly as a method of work, building information modeling, but also as a virtual model, building information model. BIM facilitates the coordination of information gathering, both as a working method and a technical tool. This will contribute BIM to achieve the purpose sustainable building. / Syftet med den här studien är att underlätta hållbart byggande genom användandet av BIM. Målet är att utreda vilka aspekter inom hållbart byggande som kan analyseras med fokus på i huvudsak BIM-verktyg, men också andra hjälpmedel. Studien bygger på litteraturstudier och intervjuer. I litteraturstudien undersöks aspekter som är betydelsefulla vid hållbart byggande genom att studera miljöcertifieringssystem som är tillämpningsbara i Sverige, samt vilka BIM-verktyg som finns att tillgå på marknaden för att analysera dessa aspekter. Litteraturstudien innefattar även begrepp rörande BIM och hållbarhet för att ge en klarare bild av dess innebörd. Intervjuerna har tillfört studien övergripande förståelse för branschen och vägledning i ämnet. Resultatet redovisas i en tabell, där de aspekter som är relevanta för hållbart byggande är listade. I tabellen går det även att utläsa vilka aspekter certifieringssystemen tar upp. Totalt visar studien på 132 aspekter fördelade inom sju delområden; Platsen, Vatten och Avlopp, Energi och Föroreningar, Material och Avfall, Inomhusklimat och Välmående, Stadens Gestaltning samt Genomförande och Förvaltning. I tabellen redovisas dessutom förslag på BIM-verktyg samt andra hjälpmedel som används vid analys av en specifik aspekt. Studien visar att en knapp majoritet av aspekterna, 55 procent, är möjliga att analysera med BIM-verktyg. Platsen är det delområde som visar flest aspekter som går att analysera med BIM-verktyg, 95 procent. Material och avfall resulterade i minst aspekter med endast tio procent. Sammantaget har studien undersökt 35 stycken olika BIM-verktyg. De aspekter som kräver andra hjälpmedel för analys genererar ofta information viktig för projektet ur hållbarhetssynpunkt, och går i många fall att integrera i BIM-modellen manuellt. Sammantaget medför det att projektet får en fullmatad BIM-modell med användbar information som följer projektet ända in i förvaltning och sedermera rivning och återvinning. Studien visar att hållbart byggande handlar om att ha en helhetssyn där flertalet aspekter ska beaktas för att uppnå hållbarhet. Det räcker således inte att bara se till exempelvis energihushållning för att anse att ett projekt är hållbart. För att analysera aspekter rörande hållbarhet krävs att relevant och riktig information om projektet insamlas. Då kan olika förslag utarbetas och jämföras för att ta fram det mest hållbara alternativet. Ett redskap för detta är BIM. BIM är definierat dels som en arbetsmetod, byggnadsinformationsmodellering, men också som en virtuell modell, byggnadsinformationsmodell. BIM underlättar samordningen av den insamlande informationen, både som arbetsmetod och som tekniskt verktyg. På så vis bidrar BIM till att uppnå syftet hållbart byggande.

Existe uma noção intuitiva de que os custos associados a ações de suporte de projetos de gerenciamento de Tecnologia da Informação (TI), muitas vezes considerados já muito elevados e em crescimento, possuem forte vinculação com esforços empreendidos nas fases de desenvolvimento/implantação e teste. Apesar da importância de caracterizar e compreender a sistemática dessa relação, pouco tem sido feito neste domínio, principalmente devido à falta de mecanismos adequados tanto para o compartilhamento de informações entre as fases de um projeto de TI, quanto para aprender com experiências passadas. Para lidar com essa problemática, propõe-se nesta dissertação uma abordagem para estimar dinamicamente os custos de suporte de projetos de gerenciamento de TI à luz de informações provenientes das fases de desenvolvimento/implantação e teste. As estimativas de custos são calculadas a partir da integração de informações produzidas ao longo do ciclo de vida de projetos (passados). O núcleo da solução presente neste trabalho conta com um modelo Bayesiano para realizar previsão de custos de suporte, apoiado em um modelo de informação usado para persistir informações históricas. Para provar conceito e viabilidade técnica da solução proposta considerou-se, como estudo de caso, a predição de custos associados com projetos de implantação de infraestrutura de redes sem fio. Durante a avaliação é demonstrada a eficácia e eficiência do modelo, bem como discutido suas potencialidades e limitações para auxiliar no entendimento do compromisso entre custos de desenvolvimento/ implantação, teste e suporte. A avaliação conduzida fez uso de dados reais/sintéticos produzidos a partir de projetos do ISBSG e apresenta resultados próximos dos encontrados em cenários reais. Nossa abordagem obteve cerca de 80% de acerto na estimativa dos custos de suporte para os cenários avaliados. / There is an intuitive notion that the costs associated with IT management project support actions, often deemed extremely high and increasing, are directly related to the effort spent during their development/deployment and test phases. Despite the importance of systematically characterizing and understanding this relationship, little has been done in this realm mainly due to the lack of proper mechanisms for both sharing information between IT project phases and learning from past experientes. To tackle this issue, in this dissertation we proposed an approach for dynamically predicting IT management project support costs taking into account information gathered from the development/deployment and test phases. Support cost estimates are computed by integrating existing information from the lifecycle of (past) projects. The core of the solution in this work relies on a Bayesian model to perform support cost predictions, supported by an information model employed to persist historical information gathered from past projects. To prove the concept and technical feasibility of our solution we consider as a case study the prediction of costs (either development/test/support) associated with projects for the deployment of wireless network infrastructures. During the evaluation is demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of the model and discussed its potential and limitations in order to help understanding the trade-offs between development/deployment, test, and support costs. Our solution has been evaluated based on real/synthetics data gathered from the ISBSG dataset, and presents results similar to those found in real-life scenarios. Our solution has provided correct estimates for around 80% of the support costs for the scenarios evaluated.

Existe uma noção intuitiva de que os custos associados a ações de suporte de projetos de gerenciamento de Tecnologia da Informação (TI), muitas vezes considerados já muito elevados e em crescimento, possuem forte vinculação com esforços empreendidos nas fases de desenvolvimento/implantação e teste. Apesar da importância de caracterizar e compreender a sistemática dessa relação, pouco tem sido feito neste domínio, principalmente devido à falta de mecanismos adequados tanto para o compartilhamento de informações entre as fases de um projeto de TI, quanto para aprender com experiências passadas. Para lidar com essa problemática, propõe-se nesta dissertação uma abordagem para estimar dinamicamente os custos de suporte de projetos de gerenciamento de TI à luz de informações provenientes das fases de desenvolvimento/implantação e teste. As estimativas de custos são calculadas a partir da integração de informações produzidas ao longo do ciclo de vida de projetos (passados). O núcleo da solução presente neste trabalho conta com um modelo Bayesiano para realizar previsão de custos de suporte, apoiado em um modelo de informação usado para persistir informações históricas. Para provar conceito e viabilidade técnica da solução proposta considerou-se, como estudo de caso, a predição de custos associados com projetos de implantação de infraestrutura de redes sem fio. Durante a avaliação é demonstrada a eficácia e eficiência do modelo, bem como discutido suas potencialidades e limitações para auxiliar no entendimento do compromisso entre custos de desenvolvimento/ implantação, teste e suporte. A avaliação conduzida fez uso de dados reais/sintéticos produzidos a partir de projetos do ISBSG e apresenta resultados próximos dos encontrados em cenários reais. Nossa abordagem obteve cerca de 80% de acerto na estimativa dos custos de suporte para os cenários avaliados. / There is an intuitive notion that the costs associated with IT management project support actions, often deemed extremely high and increasing, are directly related to the effort spent during their development/deployment and test phases. Despite the importance of systematically characterizing and understanding this relationship, little has been done in this realm mainly due to the lack of proper mechanisms for both sharing information between IT project phases and learning from past experientes. To tackle this issue, in this dissertation we proposed an approach for dynamically predicting IT management project support costs taking into account information gathered from the development/deployment and test phases. Support cost estimates are computed by integrating existing information from the lifecycle of (past) projects. The core of the solution in this work relies on a Bayesian model to perform support cost predictions, supported by an information model employed to persist historical information gathered from past projects. To prove the concept and technical feasibility of our solution we consider as a case study the prediction of costs (either development/test/support) associated with projects for the deployment of wireless network infrastructures. During the evaluation is demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of the model and discussed its potential and limitations in order to help understanding the trade-offs between development/deployment, test, and support costs. Our solution has been evaluated based on real/synthetics data gathered from the ISBSG dataset, and presents results similar to those found in real-life scenarios. Our solution has provided correct estimates for around 80% of the support costs for the scenarios evaluated.