[pt] Neste trabalho, eu busco replicar o modelo somente com taxas de juros ex-posto em Rudebusch e Wu (2004) para a Estrutura a Termo de Taxa de Juros no Brasil, visando extrair dois fatores latentes que expliquem a curva de juros brasi-leira. O modelo faz parte da família dos modelos afins de estrutura a termo, sem arbitragem, com os fatores sendo extraídos através de uma função de máxima ve-rossimilhança e obtidos via Filtro de Kalman. Posteriormente, eu busco uma rela-ção do preço do risco associado a cada choque do vetor de estados com um ativo de risco - medido aqui através do IBOVESPA. / [en] This paper seeks to replicate the yields-only model present in Rudebusch e Wu (2004) for the Brazilian yield curve, aiming to extract two latent factors that explain all the Brazilian yield curve. The model belongs to the family of the no-arbitrage affine models, with the factors being extracted through a maximum likelihood function, with Kalman Filter. Then, the risk price of the state vector is compared with a risk asset.

Submitted by Walter Gomes da Silva Junior (waltergomesjr@gmail.com) on 2018-08-28T19:07:10Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Spread Bancário América Latina - Walter Gomes.pdf: 1440714 bytes, checksum: 08cd6a32fa157e1bfba38dc04bc018a9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2018-08-28T19:11:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Spread Bancário América Latina - Walter Gomes.pdf: 1440714 bytes, checksum: 08cd6a32fa157e1bfba38dc04bc018a9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Isabele Garcia (isabele.garcia@fgv.br) on 2018-08-28T20:59:33Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Spread Bancário América Latina - Walter Gomes.pdf: 1440714 bytes, checksum: 08cd6a32fa157e1bfba38dc04bc018a9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-28T20:59:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Spread Bancário América Latina - Walter Gomes.pdf: 1440714 bytes, checksum: 08cd6a32fa157e1bfba38dc04bc018a9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-07-27 / Os spreads bancários na América Latina apresentam altos patamares, quando comparados a outras regiões e economias do mundo. Este trabalho tem por objetivo a análise comparativa dos fatores determinantes do spread bancário, nas principais economias da América Latina, para isso, utilizaram-se dados agregados de 73 economias do mundo, sendo 11 delas países da América Latina. Partindo-se de uma base com 51 variáveis independentes, foram gerados modelos de regressão em painel. Os resultados obtidos evidenciam, que o patamar dos spreads praticados na América Latina, são principalmente impactados pela inadimplência, provisões de crédito, custos administrativos e de pessoal, concentração bancária e diversificação das receitas. / The banking spreads in Latin America show high levels when compared to other regions and economies of the world. This work has the objective of comparative analysis of the determinants factors of the banking spreads in the main economies of Latin America, for that, was used aggregated data of 73 economies in the world, 11 of which are Latin American countries. Starting from a base with 51 independent variables, panel regression models were generated. The results show that the level of spreads in Latin America is mainly impacted by nonperforming loans, the level provisions, administrative and personnel costs, banking concentration and revenues diversification.

Submitted by isabela.moljf@hotmail.com (isabela.moljf@hotmail.com) on 2017-06-20T13:47:47Z No. of bitstreams: 1 jeanviniciusmarçal.pdf: 2941702 bytes, checksum: 46f4a5b14de034715ce1e2488e4bd957 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2017-06-29T12:39:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 jeanviniciusmarçal.pdf: 2941702 bytes, checksum: 46f4a5b14de034715ce1e2488e4bd957 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-29T12:39:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 jeanviniciusmarçal.pdf: 2941702 bytes, checksum: 46f4a5b14de034715ce1e2488e4bd957 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-16 / Esta dissertação objetivou analisar o mecanismo de transmissão da política monetária para a taxa de juros de varejo na economia brasileira em uma abordagem não linear. O período principal de análise foi de março de 2011 a março de 2016. A estratégia empírica consistiu no emprego da abordagem de política monetária para o repasse e do uso do modelo de cointegração não linear NARDL. Os principais resultados encontrados são que para as taxas de empréstimos analisadas encontrou-se evidência da assimetria de curto e longo prazo no repasse da taxa SELIC. Conclui-se ainda que a transmissão da taxa de juros no Brasil é caracterizada por apresentar o predomínio do sobre repasse. Por fim, ao comparar o período principal com um período anterior, delimitado de janeiro de 2000 a dezembro de 2012, verificou-se a mudança no sinal da assimetria, passando de negativa para positiva no período atual. / This dissertation aims to analyze interest rate pass-through mechanism from SELIC to retail interest rate in the Brazilian economy in a nonlinear framework. The main review period was from March 2011 to March 2016. The empirical strategy consists in the use of monetary policy approach to interest rate pass-through and use of nonlinear cointegration model NARDL. The main results are that exist evidence of short as well as long-term asymmetry in the interest rate pass-through. We can also conclude that the interest rate pass-through is characterized by the predominance of the more complete pass-through. Finally, when comparing the main period with an earlier period, delimited from January 2000 to December 2012, there was a change in the sign of asymmetry, from negative to positive in the current period.

Submitted by Rodrigo Barros (rodrigo.wang@gmail.com) on 2012-06-25T15:48:43Z No. of bitstreams: 1 RODRIGO WANG DE FARIA BARROS_.pdf: 14979 bytes, checksum: 435a2a9021a307d43eaca2f0afbbbead (MD5) / Rejected by Vera Lúcia Mourão (vera.mourao@fgv.br), reason: Prezado Rodrigo, você anexou arquivo errado, trata-se do comunicado da sua apresentação, peço a gentiliza de anexar o pdf da sua dissertação. obrigada. Vera on 2012-06-25T18:33:07Z (GMT) / Submitted by Rodrigo Barros (rodrigo.wang@gmail.com) on 2012-06-25T19:22:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Rodrigo Wang de Faria Barros.pdf: 424805 bytes, checksum: 96d4118c71cec6a00e9ca280ac2fe146 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vera Lúcia Mourão (vera.mourao@fgv.br) on 2012-06-25T19:30:01Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Rodrigo Wang de Faria Barros.pdf: 424805 bytes, checksum: 96d4118c71cec6a00e9ca280ac2fe146 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-06-25T20:06:11Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação Rodrigo Wang de Faria Barros.pdf: 424805 bytes, checksum: 96d4118c71cec6a00e9ca280ac2fe146 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-05-28 / Esta tese tem por objetivo principal examinar a interação da política fiscal com a política monetária. A pergunta central a ser respondida por esse estudo é se a política fiscal tem efeitos sobre a regra de Taylor. Para responder a essa pergunta o estudo é conduzido com análise teórica e empírica. O modelo analítico é desenvolvido do framework novo keynesiano, apresentado por Gali (2008), adicionando-se papel do governo sobre a demanda agregada e a produtividade das firmas. A análise empírica é realizada com dados de 1990 a 2008, em um painel de países utilizando o System GMM (método generalizado dos momentos) desenvolvido por Blundell e Bond (1998). Os resultados obtidos nesse trabalho apontam para um impacto positivo do gasto fiscal na taxa de juros de curto prazo, tal que o aumento em 1 ponto percentual de gasto além do nível de equilíbrio leva a um aumento de aproximadamente 0,1 pontos percentuais na taxa de juros no curto prazo, já o impacto no longo prazo, na estimação preferida, varia de 0,5 a 1 ponto percentual. Ou seja, para efeito de recomendação de política fiscal, gastos governamentais têm efeitos na taxa de juros nominal de curto prazo. / This work aims to study the interaction between fiscal and monetary policy. The central question posed herein is whether or not the fiscal policy has relevant effects on the Taylor rule. To answer this question the study is conducted with both a theoretical and empirical analysis. The analytical model is developed from a new Keynesian framework as in Gali (2008), but adding to this model the role played by the government which with its spending would affect the aggregate demand and the firm’s productivity. The empirical analysis is conducted with data from 1990 to 2008, using panel data and the system GMM (generalized method of moments) developed by Blundell and Bond (1998). The results show a positive impact of the government spending in the short run interest rate, since an increase of 1 percentage point in the spending above its equilibrium level leads to an increase of, approximately, 0,1 percentage points in the short run interest rates; the long run impact varies from 0,5 to 1 percentage points. Then, as a policy recommendation, the fiscal policy affects the short run interest rates.

Submitted by Jamiu Nogueira Antunes de Souza (jamiuantunes@gmail.com) on 2013-08-27T20:30:21Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_MPFE_Jamiu Antunes_270813.pdf: 247660 bytes, checksum: b2d0112dec518d85f9a768b17f619b0d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzinei Teles Garcia Garcia (suzinei.garcia@fgv.br) on 2013-08-28T12:51:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_MPFE_Jamiu Antunes_270813.pdf: 247660 bytes, checksum: b2d0112dec518d85f9a768b17f619b0d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-08-28T13:33:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_MPFE_Jamiu Antunes_270813.pdf: 247660 bytes, checksum: b2d0112dec518d85f9a768b17f619b0d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-08-02 / O mercado acionário brasileiro tem demonstrado consistente desenvolvimento ao longo dos últimos anos. A teoria econômica aponta uma inter-relação entre os resultados deste mercado e a estrutura macroeconômica. Através da metodologia de Rigobon e Sack (2003), o presente estudo avalia o impacto contemporâneo do mercado acionário sobre a taxa Selic de juros. A contribuição deste trabalho é a de encontrar indícios de que um choque não esperado que cause 1% de valorização no retorno do mercado acionário provoque uma queda de 0,019% na taxa Selic de juros. Os resultados parecem ser de pequena escala, quando comparados com os valores obtidos em outros países. / The Brazilian stock market has shown consistent growth over the last few years. Economic theory points to an interrelationship between the results of this market and the macroeconomic framework in previous studies. Through the methodology presented by Rigobon and Sack (2003), this study assesses the contemporary impact of the stock market on the Selic interest rate. The contribution of this work is to find evidence that an unexpected shock causes of 1% appreciation in the stock market return causes a decrease of 0.019% in the Selic interest rate. The results appear to be not significant when they are compared to results from other countries.

This thesis analyzes the impact of the monetary policy of the Czech Republic on the Czech banking sector. It explains the monetary transmission mechanism in an inflation targeting regime and its channels: interest rates channel, asset price channel, exchange rate channel and credit channel. The aim of the thesis is to introduce and analyze channels of the Czech transmission mechanism by Correlation and Graphical Analysis of chosen time series and using Linear Regression Model. The analyses are calculated in MS Excel and Gretl.

This study analyses and investigates the impact of crude oil price vitality on unemployment in South Africa. This is done by firstly surveying theoretical and empirical literature on the crude oil price-unemployment relationship before relating it to South Africa. Secondly, crude oil and unemployment trends with their causes are overviewed. The study employs a Johansen co-integration technique based on VAR to model unemployment against crude oil prices, real effective exchange rate, real interest rates and real gross domestic product. Using quarterly data for the period 1990-2010, econometric results show that crude oil prices are positively related to unemployment in the long run while the opposite is true in the short run. Parameter estimates and variables are statistically significant; hence there are also policy recommendations which are related to both empirical and theoretical literature. Lastly, impulse response functions show that unemployment returns to equilibrium in the long run when crude oil price changes whereas real interest rates followed by crude oil prices explain most of unemployment changes compared to other variables in the long run.

Cette thèse étudie deux grandes problématiques économiques étant étroitement liées. D’une part, il est question d’analyser à quelles conditions les taux de change présentent des relations de long terme communes. D’autre part, une analyse en profondeur concernant les investissements sur devises connus sous le terme anglais de « carry trades » est proposée. Le taux de change étant un des déterminants du rendement de ces investissements, le lien entre les deux problématiques apparaît clairement. Ces problématiques sont traitées à travers la mobilisation d’outils théoriques et empiriques. Ce travail aboutit à plusieurs conclusions. Concernant les mouvements communs de long terme entre les taux de change, ils dépendent du degré d’intégration des économies ainsi que de la similarité de leurs politiques monétaires. Concernant les investissements sur devises, cette thèse démontre que les banques centrales des petites économies ouvertes ont tout intérêt à fixer une cible d’inflation ainsi qu’une cible d’afflux de capitaux afin d’éviter l’effet déstabilisateur des « carry trades ». Cette politique sera efficace uniquement si la banque centrale est transparente concernant ses cibles de long terme. Pour finir, après la crise financière de 2008, la banque centrale Néo-Zélandaise a changé de comportement vis-à-vis des « carry trades » en provenance du Japon. En effet, après la crise, la banque centrale y a répondu de manière à stabiliser l’économie. Cependant, les investissements en provenance des Etats-Unis sont toujours déstabilisateurs pour l’économie Néo-Zélandaise, surtout lorsque les Etats-Unis utilisent une politique d’assouplissement quantitatif. / This thesis investigates two main issues in economics. On the one hand, we investigate under which conditions cointegration between exchange rates is likely to appear. On the other hand, this thesis proposes to investigate how carry trades affect small open economies. Given that the exchange rate is a main determinant of carry trades’ returns, these two topics are obviously linked. These two issues are investigated both through theoretical and empirical tools. Concerning long run comovements between exchange rates, this thesis reveals that they depend on the degree of linkages between two economies and on the way central banks set their monetary policies. Concerning carry trades, this work sheds light on the fact that small open economies central banks should have both an inflation and a capital inflows target to suppress the destabilizing effect of carry trades. Moreover, such a policy would be efficient only if the central banks are transparent concerning their long run targets. Finally, in this thesis we show that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has changed its reaction to Japan-sourced carry trades after the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC). Indeed, after the GFC, the RBNZ responded in a stabilizing way to Japan-sourced carry trades. However, after the GFC, the RBNZ still responded in a destabilizing way to US-sourced carry trades. Our work also reveals that carry trades destabilize even more New-Zealand’s economy when the US are engaged in a quantitative easing policy.

Banks play a pivotal role in the economic growth and development of countries, primarily through the diversification of risk for both themselves and other economic agents. Interest rate risk is regarded as one of the most prominent financial risks faced by a bank. A large portion of private banks’ revenue stems from net interest income that is generated from the difference between various assets and liabilities that are held on the balance sheet. Fluctuations in the interest rate can alter a bank’s interest income and value, making interest rate risk management vital to its success. The asset and liability committee of a bank is the internal committee charged with the duty of managing the bank’s interest rate risk exposure through the use of various hedging strategies and instruments. This thesis uses a case study methodology to analyse GBS Mutual Bank interest rate risk management. Its specific business circumstances, balance sheet structure and the market conditions over a specified period are used to comment on the practicality of a variety of balance sheet positioning strategies and derivative hedging instruments. The thesis also provides recommendations for the bank’s asset and liability committee in terms of its functions and organisation. It is elucidated that the most practical balance sheet hedging strategies are a volume strategy and immunisation, while the most practical derivative hedging instruments are interest rate futures and interest rate collars. It is found that the bank has a well functioning asset and liability committee whose only encumbrance to its functionality is the inadequacy of the informational technology used to measure, control and manage its interest rate risk position. This thesis concludes by summarising the practicality of the various interest rate risk hedging alternatives available to the GBS Mutual Bank. Implementing a particular strategy or instrument depends, of course, on its asset and liability committee’s decision.

This paper uses the semi-structural Laubach and Williams model to estimate the time- varying natural rate of interest by Kalman filter and Maximum Likelihood method, applying it for the first time to Czech data. The results show a significant decrease of the natural interest rate during the past decade, which constitutes further evidence for the wide-spread notion that structural factors in many countries have shifted after the global financial crisis. The paper's contribution is mainly represented by preparing ground for further research. It concludes that the basic version of the Laubach and Williams model is not optimal for the Czech environment and suggests appropriate adjustments to it. It discusses and analyzes sources of potential problems with the estimation, notably the issues of singularity and model specification. Eventually the paper concludes that due to the low significance of results and the uncertainty of gains and losses related to a policy switch, the best reaction of the central bank would be to keep the current regime and inflation target. JEL Classification C32, E43, E52, O40 Keywords natural real interest rate, inflation target, inflation measurement, monetary policy, Kalman filter, trend growth Author's e-mail lucie.scheer@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail tomas.holub@fsv.cuni.cz v