本文採用1990年至2004年10月之月資料，建立人民幣出口、進口及雙邊貿易之三項實質有效匯率指數。考量中國大陸特殊政、經情勢，以及加入WTO後，進出口貿易更加自由化的前提下，運用中國大陸進出口值、物價水準，建立人民幣實質有效匯率指數，所依循理論較無疑慮，而援引之數據亦無太大爭議。 為貼近中共當局宣稱建立「符合市場經濟的靈活的匯率制度」，本文選擇與中國前十二大貿易夥伴組成一籃子貨幣，用以編纂人民幣實質有效匯率指數，將現行釘住美元之匯率改為釘住「一籃子」貨幣，能有效反映人民幣價值，亦可衡量中國外貿競爭力。 實證結果發現，相對於基期(2000年)，1990∼1993年指數多低於100，幣值高估；1994年匯率併軌，匯價發生結構性改變，幣值過度低估，後指數逐步下跌，1997年趨近均衡匯率。1997年亞洲金融風暴至2002年，甚至出現與均衡匯率並無太大偏離現象，即便有所失調亦能在短期內適切調整。2002年下半年至2004年年底，匯價低估趨勢確立，但偏離均衡匯率僅5％上下，幅度不太。 中國宣稱要「和平崛起」，自應承擔更多國際義務，人民幣升值是無可違逆的趨勢。為避免干擾經濟發展，勢必採行積極之管理浮動匯率制度，釘住一籃子貨幣並設定幅度狹窄之浮動區間「微調」。匯價調整時機，除衡酌自身經濟面的條件，尚須納入國際政治面的考量，由中共官方談話研判，人民幣升值，將是無預警的，出其不意的。 / In this paper monthly data from 1990 through October 2004 are used to establish real effective exchange rate indices of RMB for export, import and bilateral trading respectively. These real effective exchange rate indices are established taking the particular political and economic conditions in China into consideration, based on the increasingly liberation of importation and exportation after joining WTO, and using China’s import and export volume as well as its CPI. The theory used is doubtlessly correct and there is no much dispute on the data referred herein. To adhere with what the China government proclaimed: “a flexible exchange rate meeting the market economics”, currencies of its top 12 trade partners are selected for a basket of currencies instead of pegging to US dollar, in forming the real effective exchange rate indices. These indices can effectively reflect RMB’s true value, and measure China’s foreign trade competition. According to the result of verification, in comparing with the base period (2000), the indices for 1990 – 1993 were mostly less than 100, representing that RMB was overvalued. In 1994 the exchange rates were unified, resulting in a structural change on foreign exchange rate, RMB was undervalued. Then, these indices fell gradually, and the exchange rate tended to become balanced in 1997. From 1997, while the Asian financial crisis happened, till 2002, there was no much deviation from the balanced exchange rate, i.e., even there was any out of balance, it was adjusted properly within a relatively short time. From the second half of 2002 till the end of 2004, the tendency of undervaluation was ascertained, by the deviation was only about 5%, the range was not so much. Proclaiming that it is going to “peacefully rise”, China should assume more international liabilities, and the appreciation of RMB is a non-reversible trend. To avoid interference to its economic development, China has no choice but to adopt an aggressively control on its floating exchange rate regime, pegging to a basket of currencies and setting up a relatively narrow range of tunnel for “snaking”. In addition of its own political economy, international political situation must be taken into consideration for timing of its exchange rate adjustment. From some China government officials’ statements, it can be seen that appreciation of RMB would be done without any warning in advance and unexpectedly.

相較於單一信用違約交換只能對單一信用標的進行信用保護，一籃子信用違約交換則能對一籃子的信用標的進行信用保護。此種產品的評價決定於一籃子信用標的實體的聯合機率分配，因此多個標的資產間違約相關性的衡量，對於一籃子信用違約交換的評價和風險管理是相當重要的課題。 　　在一個資產池中，有時可以將其切割成兩個以上的群體，各群體間彼此相互獨立，而在各群內彼此相依。我們將其視為在多因子模型下的特例，此模型提供我們更具彈性的方式去建立資產之間彼此的相關性。 　　在這篇文章中，我們主要以 Chiang, Yueh, and Hsieh (2007) 在單因子模型下所提出來的方法為基礎，將其延伸至多因子的模型下的特例。藉由選擇一個合適的(IS)分配，在每一次的模擬中必定會有k個違約事件發生；因此我們獲得一個有效率的方法對一籃子違約交換進行評價，此演算法不僅簡單並且其變異數較蒙地卡羅小。 / In contrast to a single name credit default swaps which provides credit protection for a single underlying, a basket credit default swap extends the credit protection to portfolio of obligors with the restriction that the default of only one underlying is compensated. The price of the products depends on the joint default probability of the underlying in the credit portfolio. Thus, the modeling of default correlation, default risk and expected loss is a key issue for the valuation and risk management of basket default swaps. Sometimes a pool of underlying obligors can have two or more separate groups, between those they are unrelated, but in each part they are related. The special cases provide more flexible way to construct the correlation between two or more underlying obligors. In this paper, our approach is based on the construction of importance sampling (IS) method proposed by Chiang, Yueh and Hsieh (2007) under one-factor model, and then we extend the model to a special case under the multi-factor model. By the appropriate choice of the importance sampling distribution, we establish a way of ensuring that for every path generated, k default events always take place. Then we can obtain an efficiency algorithm for basket default swap valuation. The algorithm is simple to implement and it also guarantees variance reduction.

Os produtos podem causar impactos negativos ao meio ambiente em uma das suas etapas do ciclo de vida, quais sejam: aquisição de matéria-prima, fabricação, distribuição, uso e disposição final. A integração dos aspectos ambientais no projeto e no desenvolvimento de produto busca prevenir e minimizar os possíveis impactos ao longo de seu ciclo de vida. Esses impactos variam quanto à categoria, magnitude, extensão e duração. A principal metodologia para avaliar os impactos ambientais do ciclo de vida do produto é a Avaliação do Ciclo de Vida (ACV). Contudo há diversos métodos e formas de aplicações desta metodologia. O primeiro objetivo é identificar os principais métodos da ACV, por meio de uma revisão sistemática, O segundo é realizar um estudo de caso comparativo da ACV entre dois tipos de cestos (de plástico e de aço inox) utilizados nas lavadoras de roupas automáticas, identificando os potenciais impactos ambientais, baseado no método EDIP. Os principais métodos identificados na revisão sistemática foram: Ecoindicator 99, EPS, CML Ecological Footprint e EDIP. A comparação do ciclo de vida dos dois cestos demonstra que, para as categorias de impactos de potencial de aquecimento global, acidificação, eutrofização, ecotoxidade e toxidade humana, o cesto inox tem uma maior contribuição para os potencias impactos ambientais em relação ao cesto de plástico, principalmente devido à maior distância transportada da matéria-prima do aço até a fabricação do cesto. / The products can cause negative impacts to the environment in one of their stages of the life cycle, which are: raw material acquisition, production, distribution, use and final disposition. The integration of the environmental aspects in the project and in the product development it looks for to prevent and to minimize the possible impacts along his life cycle. Those impacts vary as for the category, magnitude, extension and duration. The main methodology to evaluate the environmental impacts of the life cycle of the product is the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). However there are several methods and forms of applications of this methodology. The first objective is to identify the main methods of LCA, through a systematic revision, THE second is to accomplish a study of comparative case of LCA among two types of baskets (of plastic and of stainless steel) used in the washers of automatic clothes, identifying the potentials environmental impacts, based on the method EDIP. The main identified methods in the systematic revision were: Echo-indicator 99, EPS, CML Ecological Footprint and EDIP. The comparison of the cycle of life of the two baskets demonstrates that, for the categories of impacts of potential of global warming, acidification, nutrient enrichment, ecotoxicity and human toxicity, the basket stainless steel has a larger contribution for the potencies environmental impacts in relation to the basket of plastic, mainly due to the largest transported distance of the raw material of the steel to the production of the basket.

Cette étude d'une action particulière du basket-ball a été conduite afin d'approfondir les conditions d'élaboration et de fonctionnement d'une démarche technique. Le sujet qui sert de support à cette exploration, le tir à mi-distance, a été choisi à la fois à cause de l'impossibilité de poursuivre un tel objectif en une seule étude pour l'ensemble du jeu, et parce qu'il en est une des actions typiques et néanmoins problématique dans le monde de l'intervention. La nécessité de différer l'opérationnalisation au profit d'un effort pour mieux comprendre la singularité de la technique corporelle étudiée est affirmée. Cet effort relève de la description, par quoi procède la technique, avant d'être un processus de transmission. Il caractérise en partie l'approche technologique. Des images numérisées de séquences de jeu de haut niveau féminin, auquel il est reconnu un statut de pratique de référence très pertinent pour la formation, ont servi de terrain d'étude. Un cadre théorique a été construit à partir du mot action dont les composantes relatives au contexte et au joueur ont été déclinées avec des savoirs et des connaissances scientifiques diverses utilisées comme " outils ". Il a été conçu pour décrire la structure de quelques actions singulières de tirs en matchs. Il a permis d'affiner l'observation en différé et de conduire un entretien avec une joueuse portant sur les mêmes séquences. Ces deux études ont permis de compléter ou de corriger le discours technique en usage, notamment de la littérature spécialisée, dont l'analyse montre qu'il tend à rester cantonné dans des descriptions formelles de gestes. La thèse selon laquelle le tir à mi-distance doit être envisagé comme une action spécifique, distincte des actions de jeu et des autres actions de tirs, se trouve ici confortée. L'ensemble ouvre des perspectives pour la didactique, aussi bien pour la performance que pour l'éducation physique.

In this thesis we use computational neural network models to examine the dynamics and functionality of the CA3 region of the mammalian hippocampus. The emphasis of the project is to investigate how the dynamic control structures provided by inhibitory circuitry and cellular modification may effect the CA3 region during the recall of previously stored information. The CA3 region is commonly thought to work as a recurrent auto-associative neural network due to the neurophysiological characteristics found, such as, recurrent collaterals, strong and sparse synapses from external inputs and plasticity between coactive cells. Associative memory models have been developed using various configurations of mathematical artificial neural networks which were first developed over 40 years ago. Within these models we can store information via changes in the strength of connections between simplified model neurons (two-state). These memories can be recalled when a cue (noisy or partial) is instantiated upon the net. The type of information they can store is quite limited due to restrictions caused by the simplicity of the hard-limiting nodes which are commonly associated with a binary activation threshold. We build a much more biologically plausible model with complex spiking cell models and with realistic synaptic properties between cells. This model is based upon some of the many details we now know of the neuronal circuitry of the CA3 region. We implemented the model in computer software using Neuron and Matlab and tested it by running simulations of storage and recall in the network. By building this model we gain new insights into how different types of neurons, and the complex circuits they form, actually work. The mammalian brain consists of complex resistive-capacative electrical circuitry which is formed by the interconnection of large numbers of neurons. A principal cell type is the pyramidal cell within the cortex, which is the main information processor in our neural networks. Pyramidal cells are surrounded by diverse populations of interneurons which have proportionally smaller numbers compared to the pyramidal cells and these form connections with pyramidal cells and other inhibitory cells. By building detailed computational models of recurrent neural circuitry we explore how these microcircuits of interneurons control the flow of information through pyramidal cells and regulate the efficacy of the network. We also explore the effect of cellular modification due to neuronal activity and the effect of incorporating spatially dependent connectivity on the network during recall of previously stored information. In particular we implement a spiking neural network proposed by Sommer and Wennekers (2001). We consider methods for improving associative memory recall using methods inspired by the work by Graham and Willshaw (1995) where they apply mathematical transforms to an artificial neural network to improve the recall quality within the network. The networks tested contain either 100 or 1000 pyramidal cells with 10% connectivity applied and a partial cue instantiated, and with a global pseudo-inhibition.We investigate three methods. Firstly, applying localised disynaptic inhibition which will proportionalise the excitatory post synaptic potentials and provide a fast acting reversal potential which should help to reduce the variability in signal propagation between cells and provide further inhibition to help synchronise the network activity. Secondly, implementing a persistent sodium channel to the cell body which will act to non-linearise the activation threshold where after a given membrane potential the amplitude of the excitatory postsynaptic potential (EPSP) is boosted to push cells which receive slightly more excitation (most likely high units) over the firing threshold. Finally, implementing spatial characteristics of the dendritic tree will allow a greater probability of a modified synapse existing after 10% random connectivity has been applied throughout the network. We apply spatial characteristics by scaling the conductance weights of excitatory synapses which simulate the loss in potential in synapses found in the outer dendritic regions due to increased resistance. To further increase the biological plausibility of the network we remove the pseudo-inhibition and apply realistic basket cell models with differing configurations for a global inhibitory circuit. The networks are configured with; 1 single basket cell providing feedback inhibition, 10% basket cells providing feedback inhibition where 10 pyramidal cells connect to each basket cell and finally, 100% basket cells providing feedback inhibition. These networks are compared and contrasted for efficacy on recall quality and the effect on the network behaviour. We have found promising results from applying biologically plausible recall strategies and network configurations which suggests the role of inhibition and cellular dynamics are pivotal in learning and memory.

No description available.

Šiuo metu viena iš aktualiausių temų yra aukštojo mokslo ir studijų reforma, mokamos ir nemokamos studijos. Siekiama, kad aukštasis mokslas taptų kiekvienam prieinamas. Ši tema buvo pasirinkta, nes aukštasis mokslas yra aktualus visiems, ekonomikai, visuomenei svarbu, kad kuo daugiau žmonių įgytų aukštesnį išsilavinimą, daugelis asmenų jo siekia. Kuo aukštesnis išsilavinimas, tuo didesnė nauda žmogui, nes tas, kuris išsimokslinęs, turi daugiau galimybių įsidarbinti ir gauti didesnes pajamas. Todėl normalu, kad kuo daugiau žmonių siekia aukštojo išsilavinimo. Aukštojo mokslo reforma yra siekiama padaryti mokslą kokybiškesnį, prieinamesnį Lietuvos jaunimui, atviresnį visai visuomenei, garantuoti socialinę paramą studentams, pakankamą studijų finansavimą. Aukštojo mokslo reforma būtina, nes dabartinė mokslo ir studijų sistema turi daug trūkumų. Manoma, kad pakeitus aukštojo mokslo finansavimo būdus, bus išspręsta daug aukštojo mokslo sektoriaus problemų. Dėl mokesčių už aukštąjį mokslą iškyla daug diskusijų: kas turi mokėti už studijas – studentas ar valstybė. Juk abiem pusėms svarbu, kad kuo daugiau žmonių įgytų aukštąjį išsilavinimą, tačiau valstybei nepakanka lėšų sumokėti už kiekvieno studento studijas, o studentas yra priverstas dirbti ir imti paskolą. darbo tikslas – ištirti Lietuvos aukštojo mokslo finansavimo reformos pokyčius. Iškeltam tikslui pasiekti nustatyti tokie uždaviniai: 1. Išnagrinėti Lietuvos aukštojo mokslo finansavimo pokyčius. 2. Sugretinti aukštojo... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Currently, one of the most important topics of higher education reform, paid and unpaid study. The aim is to make higher education accessible to everyone. This theme was chosen because higher education is relevant to everyone, the economy and society it is important that more people acquire higher education, many people seek it. The higher the education, the greater the benefits for humans, because the one who educated, have more job opportunities and higher income. It is therefore normal that the more people seek higher education. Higher education reform is to make higher quality education, accessible to young people in Lithuania, a more open society as a whole, to ensure social support for students, adequate funding for education. Higher education reform is necessary because the current education system has many flaws. It is believed that changing the ways of financing higher education will solve many problems in the higher education sector. The fees for higher education there is much debate: who should pay for their studies - a student or the state. For both sides it is important that more people acquire higher education, but the state is not enough money to pay for the education of each student and the student is forced to work and take out a loan. The aim - to investigate the Lithuanian higher education funding reform changes. To achieve the aim set out the following tasks: First Examine the Lithuanian higher education funding changes. Second Juxtaposition of higher... [to full text]

在今日以客戶為導向的市場中，“給較好的客戶較好的服務”的概念已經逐漸轉變為“給每一位客戶適當的服務”。藉由跨域行銷(cross-selling)的方式，企業可以為不同的客戶提供適當的服務及商品組合。臺灣的金融業近年來在金融整合中陸續成立了多家金融控股公司，希望藉由銀行、保險與證券等領域統籌資源與資本集中，以整合旗下子公司達成跨領域的共同行銷。這種新的行銷方式需要具有表達資料項目間關係的資訊技術，而關聯規則(association rule)是一種支援共同行銷所需之資料倉儲中的極重要元件。 傳統關聯規則的挖掘可以用來找出交易資料庫中客戶潛在的消費傾向。如果得以進一步的鎖定是那些客戶在什麼時間、什麼地點具有這種消費傾向，我們可藉此制定更精確、更具獲利能力的行銷策略。然而，大部分的相關習成技術都假設挖掘出的規則在資料庫的每一個區間都是一樣有效的，然而這顯然不符合大多數的現實狀況。 本研究主要著眼於如何有效率的在不同維度、不同大小的資料庫區域中挖掘關聯規則。藉此發展出可以自動在資料庫中產生分割的機制。就此，本研究提出一個方法找出在各個分割中成立的關聯規則，此一方法具有以下幾個優點： 1. 對於找出的關聯規則，可以進一步界定此規則在資料庫的那些區域成立。 2. 對於使用者知識以及資料庫重覆掃瞄次數的要求低於先前的方法。 3. 藉由保留中間結果，此一方法可以做到增量模式的規則挖掘。 本研究舉了兩個例子來驗證所提出的方法，結果顯示本方法具有效率及可規模化方面均較以往之方法為優。 / In today’s customer-oriented market, vision of “For better customer, the better service” becomes “For every customer, the appropriate service”. Companies can develop composite products to satisfy customer needs by cross-selling. In Taiwan’s financial sector, many financial holding companies have been consecutively founded recently. By pooling the resources and capital for banking, insurance, and securities, these financial holding companies would like to integration information resources from subsidiary companies for cross-selling. This new promotion method needs the information technology which can present the relationship between items, and association rule is an important element in data warehouse which supports cross-selling. Traditional association rule can discover some customer purchase trend in a transaction database. The further exploration into targets as when, where and what kind of customers have this purchase trend that we chase, the more precise information that we can retrieve to make accurate and profitable strategies. Moreover, most related works assume that the rules are effective in database thoroughly, which obviously does not work in the majority of cases. The aim of this paper is to discover correspondent rules from different zones in database. We develop a mechanism to produce segmentations with different granularities related to each dimension, and propose an algorithm to discover association rules in all the segmentations. The advantages of our method are: 1. The rules which only hold in several segmentations of database will be picked up by our algorithm. 2. Mining all association rules in all predefined segmentations with less user prior knowledge and redundant database scans than previous methods. 3. By keeping the intermediate results of the algorithm, we can implement an incremental mining. We give two examples to evaluate our method, and the results show that our method is efficient and effective.

>Magister Scientiae - MSc / We present various methods of pricing Asian options. The methods include Monte Carlo simulations designed using control and antithetic variates, numerical solution of partial differential equation and using lower bounds.The price of the Asian option is known to be a certain risk-neutral expectation. Using the Feynman-Kac theorem, we deduce that the problem of determining the expectation implies solving a linear parabolic partial differential equation. This partial differential equation does not admit explicit solutions due to the fact that the distribution of a sum of lognormal variables is not explicit. We then solve the partial differential equation numerically using finite difference and Monte Carlo methods.Our Monte Carlo approach is based on the pseudo random numbers and not deterministic sequence of numbers on which Quasi-Monte Carlo methods are designed. To make the Monte Carlo method more effective, two variance reduction techniques are discussed.Under the finite difference method, we consider explicit and the Crank-Nicholson’s schemes. We demonstrate that the explicit method gives rise to extraneous solutions because the stability conditions are difficult to satisfy. On the other hand, the Crank-Nicholson method is unconditionally stable and provides correct solutions. Finally, we apply the pricing methods to a similar problem of determining the price of a European-style arithmetic basket option under the Black-Scholes framework. We find the optimal lower bound, calculate it numerically and compare this with those obtained by the Monte Carlo and Moment Matching methods.Our presentation here includes some of the most recent advances on Asian options, and we contribute in particular by adding detail to the proofs and explanations. We also contribute some novel numerical methods. Most significantly, we include an original contribution on the use of very sharp lower bounds towards pricing European basket options.

O objetivo do presente trabalho é estimar a participação dos principais tributos indiretos e contribuições (IPI, ICMS, PIS e COFINS) incidentes sobre os preços de dezembro de 2008, dos cinquenta e quatro produtos que formam o Cesto Básico calculado mensalmente pelo Centro de Estudos e Pesquisa Econômicas da Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). Assim, estimou-se a participação individual e total dos tributos indiretos e contribuições na formação do preço de cada um dos produtos do referido cesto. Estudou-se, ainda, a carga tributária brasileira no período de 1994 a 2008, bem como a sua relação com o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB), estabelecendo-se comparações com o cenário internacional. Apresenta-se a participação dos tributos diretos e indiretos na formação da carga tributária brasileira, com base nos princípios tributários constitucionais de justiça social e equidade fiscal. Ainda, com este foco de discussão, são tratadas as bases econômicas da tributação, considerando os principais tributos diretos e indiretos da estrutura tributária brasileira. Finalizando, apresentam-se a teoria econômica acerca da tributação e de equilíbrio de mercado, as incidências dos tributos indiretos e os grupos de produtos estudados. / The objective of the present paper is to estimate the share of the main indirect taxes (IPI, ICMS, PIS and COFINS) levied over the December 2008 prices of the fifty-four products that make up the Basic Food Basket, calculated monthly by the Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS) Center for Economic Studies and Research. Then, we estimated the individual and total share of the indirect taxes in making up the price of each one of the products that make up that basket. We studied the Brazilian tax load in the period between 1994 and 2008, as well as its relationship to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), making comparisons against the international scenario. We present the role of direct and indirect taxes in the make-up of the Brazilian tax load based on the constitutional tax principles of social justice and fiscal equity. Still focused on this discussion, we address the economic bases of taxation considering the main direct and indirect Brazilian taxes. Concluding, we present the economic theory of taxation and market balance, the indirect levied and the groups of product studied.