abstract: The present essay addresses the epistemic difficulties involved in achieving consensus with respect to the Hayek-Keynes debate. In particular, it is argued that the debate cannot be settled on the basis of the observable evidence; or, more precisely, that the empirical implications of the theories of Hayek and Keynes are such that, regardless of what is observed, both of the theories can be interpreted as true, or at least, not falsified. Regardless of the evidence, both Hayek and Keynes can be interpreted as right. The underdetermination of theories by evidence is an old and ubiquitous problem in science. The present essay makes explicit the respects in which the empirical evidence underdetermines the choice between the theories of Hayek and Keynes. In particular, it is argued both that there are convenient responses one can offer that protect each theory from what appears to be threatening evidence (i.e., that the choice between the two theories is underdetermined in the holist sense) and that, for particular kinds of evidence, the two theories are empirically equivalent (i.e., with respect to certain kinds of evidence, the choice between the two theories is underdetermined in the contrastive sense). / Dissertation/Thesis / Ph.D. Philosophy 2012

Este trabalho pretende abordar a teoria monetária sob a ótica keynesiana. A partir da análise da obra de John Maynard Keynes, apresenta os principais pontos sobre os quais a teoria pós-keynesiana irá se embasar. Mostra como a endogeneidade da moeda se transforma em um ponto fundamental da teoria pós-keynesiana, após o trabalho seminal de Nicholas Kaldor. Seria responsabilidade de Basil Moore o aprofundamento dessas ideias, condensadas sob a forma da total endogeneidade da moeda e da exogeneidade da taxa de juros, que se torna o instrumento prevalecente de política monetária. Tal vertente ficou denominada como horizontalista. A partir da crítica a esse posicionamento, formou-se a abordagem estruturalista, aqui representada por Stephen Rousseas e fortemente influenciada por Hyman Minsky. O presente trabalho propõe que o desenvolvimento concomitante das duas vertentes tem aproximado os teóricos de cada abordagem. Nesse ínterim, com base nos trabalhos de Mark Setterfield e Giuseppe Fontana, apresenta uma proposta definitiva de conciliação entre o horizontalismo e o estruturalismo a partir da incorporação da dinâmica de formação da oferta de moeda. Com isso, permite a análise de casos especificamente localizados no tempo e no espaço, de forma que consegue incorporar os principais pontos elaborados anteriormente por Keynes. A fim de conciliar o desenvolvimento da teoria com a construção de políticas monetárias, procede com a aplicação no caso brasileiro pós-Plano Real. A análise permite mostrar a presença de características estruturalistas e horizontalistas, transparecendo o benefício que uma teoria que concilie as duas vertentes presta para a teoria econômica. Além disso, mostra como o Novo Consenso Monetário, aqui representado apenas pelo modelo de Metas de Inflação, aparenta incorporar a crítica pós-keynesiana, porém ainda se prende com afinco aos cânones que são justamente a base da crítica. Por fim, ressalta a importância de se perceber a definição exógena da taxa de juros como um elemento fundamental e inevitável da influência política nas decisões econômicas. / This study addresses the monetary theory in a Keynesian perspective. Starting from the John Maynard Keynes’ analysis, it presents the main issues upon which the post-Keynesian theory is based. It shows how the endogenous money supply becomes a key point of the post-Keynesian theory after the seminal work of Nicholas Kaldor. Basil Moore would be responsible to deepen these ideas, condensed in the form of the total endogenous money supply and interest rate exogeneity, which becomes the prevailing monetary policy instrument. This strand was referred to as horizontalist. Starting from the criticism of this posture, structuralist approach was formed, and is represented here by Stephen Rousseas, although strongly influenced by Hyman Minsky. The present work proposes that the concurrent development of the two approaches has gradually approximated both strands. Therefore, based on the work of Giuseppe Fontana and Mark Setterfield, it presents a definitive proposal for reconciling horizontalism and structuralism through the incorporation of the money supply dynamics. This allows analyses of specifically localized cases, so that it can incorporate the main points previously established by Keynes. In order to reconcile theoretical development with the construction of monetary policy, it proceeds with the application to the Brazilian case after the Plano Real. The analysis allows showing the presence of structuralist and horizontalist characteristics, demonstrating the benefit that a theory that reconciles both approaches provides for economic analysis. Furthermore, it shows how the New Monetary Consensus, represented here only by Inflation Targeting model, appears to incorporate post-Keynesian critique, but still holds tight to the canons which were precisely the basis of criticism. Finally, it emphasizes the importance of realizing the exogenous determination of interest rates as a fundamental and inevitable element of political influence on economic decisions.

O objetivo deste trabalho é analisar as transformações por que passou a teoria econômica no período entre-guerras, relacionando-as às mudanças econômicas e políticas que caracterizam o capitalismo da época. O ponto de partida é o contraste realizado por Karl Polanyi entre os conservadores anos 1920 e os revolucionários anos 1930. Argumenta-se que os conflitos em tomo do restabelecimento e do posterior abandono do padrão-ouro, que representaram a tentativa de restauração do liberalismo econômico e sua subseqüente frustração, foram determinantes nas disputas políticas e teóricas do período. A obra de Friedrich von Hayek é relacionada aos conservadores anos 1920, enquanto a obra de John Maynard Keynes é associada às transformações da década de 1930. São enfatizados os contrastes entre os conceitos de equilíbrio e taxa de juros adotados pelos dois autores. Além disso, argumenta-se que as transformações da teoria econômica não se restringiram a alterações de conceitos e hipóteses, mas envolveram também um deslocamento do papel desempenhado pela teoria na reprodução da sociedade, com a emergência da gestão macroeconômica do capitalismo. / The aim of this work is to analyse the transformation that economics has been through in the interwar years, relating it to the economic and political transformation of the period\'s capitalism. The point of departure is Karl Polanyi\'s contrast between the conservative 1920s and the revolutionary 1930s. It is argued that the conflicts around the reestablishment and the abandonment of the gold-standard, which represented the attempt (and its subsequent frustration) to restore economic liberalism, exercised a great influence on the political and theoretic disputes of the time. Friedrich von Hayek\'s work is related to the conservative 1920s, while John Maynard Keynes\' work is connected with the transformations of the 1930s. The contrasts between the authors\' concepts of equilibrium and interest rate are particularly emphasized. Finally, it is maintained that the transformation of economics was not restricted to changes of concepts and hypotheses, but involved also a transformation of the role fulfilled by this theory in the reproduction of society, with the emergence of the macroeconomic management of capitalism.

Orientador: Ricardo de Medeiros Carneiro / Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-22T12:53:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Mello_GuilhermeSantos_D.pdf: 1949349 bytes, checksum: 4a0843142fcf9b77114faf3a800192e4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013 / Resumo: Esta Tese tem por objetivo estudar a importância central assumida pelo mercado de derivativos na dinâmica do capitalismo contemporâneo, debruçando-se particularmente sobre o mercado de derivativos de crédito e sua contribuição para a formação e eclosão da crise financeira que abalou os EUA e o mundo em 2007/2008. Três aspectos fundamentais são analisados para elaborar uma explicação acerca da crise em questão: primeiramente, elencam-se os elementos sistêmicos que serviram como pano de fundo para a crise, argumentando-se que o capitalismo adentrou uma nova "dimensão" ao longo dos anos 1990 e 2000. Esta dimensão esta marcada pela forma derivativa, que altera as relações de propriedade, introduz novos agentes e motivações, aumenta a integração financeira entre os agentes e transforma a lógica de precificação dos principais mercados financeiros. Em segundo lugar, argumenta-se contrariamente à abordagem da "macroeconomia tradicional" acerca das raízes da crise e dos desequilíbrios globais, pleiteando se uma explicação "monetária" para tais fenômenos, introduzindo como ponto de importância central o papel dos mercados de derivativos na determinação dos principais preços macroeconômicos. Por fim, descreve-se a transformação pela qual passou o mercado de crédito imobiliário norte-americano, argumentando-se que tais mudanças ganharam vigor renovada e apenas se completaram com a ascensão e crescimento dos derivativos de crédito (CDS) e dos CDOs sintéticos, que foram fundamentais para a manutenção das taxas baixas de juros sobre as hipotecas, contribuindo assim diretamente para a bolha no mercado imobiliário que culminou na crise econômica / Abstract: This thesis aims to study the central importance assumed by the derivatives market in the dynamics of contemporary capitalism, focusing in particular on the credit derivatives market and its contribution to the formation and the outbreak of the financial crisis that has shaken the U.S. and the world economy in 2007/2008. Three fundamental aspects are analyzed to elaborate an explanation about the crisis in question: first, enrolls systemic elements that served as backdrop to the crisis, arguing that capitalism entered a new "dimension" over the years 1990 and 2000. This dimension is marked by derivative form that changes the property relations, introduces new agents and motivations, increase financial integration between the agents and transforms the pricing logic of the major financial markets. Secondly, it is argued, contrary to the approach of "traditional macroeconomics" about the roots of the crisis and global imbalances, pleading a "monetary" explanation for such phenomena, introducing as central point of importance the role of derivatives markets in the determination of the key macroeconomic prices. Finally, we describe the transformation through which passed the American mortgage market, arguing that such changes will gain renewed vigor and are only completed with the rise and growth of credit derivatives (CDS) and synthetic CDOs, that were fundamental to the maintenance of low interest rates on mortgages, thus contributing directly to the bubble in the property market that resulted in economic crisis / Doutorado / Politica Economica / Doutor em Ciências Econômicas

It will be a part of the purpose of this paper to show that Keynesian economics treats a closed economy in a static condition while American and British society in actuality exist in open economies in a dynamic condition. In scope this paper is limited to an appraisal of the first of the main concepts of John Maynard Keynes' General Theory. That is, this paper will be concerned only with the "Theory of the Propensity to Consume" and its ramifications.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Alexandre Flavio Silva Andrada.pdf: 670430 bytes, checksum: d317a9a7393cab2f5438d96670a8d051 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2008-05-20 / The present work aims to provide a critique to the Walrasian approach in Macroeconomics. The debate between Keynesians (Keynes, New Keynesians and Post-Keynesians) and Neoclassical (Monetarists and New Classical) about method, expectations, and equilibrium is presented. Trying so to refuse Lucas s critique, which says that Keynes did not respect economic analyze straightjacket , i.e., selfish agents and clear markets. About unemployment a critical revision of General Theory s second chapter is made as well the concepts of natural rate and involuntary unemployment. The conclusions are: do not seem that Friedman s instrumentalist approach is the correct referential to Macroeconomics, rational expectations hypothesis do not explain men effective behavior, continuous market clear is tautological, and involuntary unemployment referred to a foreign economic agent individual characteristics situation. It is a Macroeconomic unemployment. At last while Microeconomics can avoid historicists considerations, Macroeconomics can not. Macroeconomics issues are related to historical moment, stage of institutions development and to a more human economic agent behavior / O presente trabalho visa apresentar uma crítica à abordagem walrasiana na Macroeconomia. Apresenta-se o debate entre Keynesianos (Keynes, Novos Keynesianos e Pós Keynesianos) e Neoclássicos (Monetaristas e Novos Clássicos) sobre o método, as expectativas e o equilíbrio na análise econômica. Tenta-se, assim, refutar a crítica de Lucas segundo a qual Keynes não teria respeitado a camisa-de-força da economia, isto é, agentes egoístas e equilíbrio nos mercados. A respeito do desemprego, faz-se uma revisão crítica do segundo capítulo da Teoria Geral, bem como dos conceitos de taxa natural de desemprego e desemprego involuntário. As conclusões obtidas são as seguintes: não parece ser correta a abordagem instrumentalista de Friedman como referência para a Macroeconomia, a hipótese de expectativas racionais pouco diz sobre o comportamento real dos homens, o equilíbrio contínuo dos mercados é tautológico e o desemprego involuntário diz respeito a uma situação alheia às características individuais do agente econômico. É um desemprego macroeconômico. Por fim, enquanto a microeconomia pode abster-se de considerações historicistas, a Macroeconomia não o pode. As questões Macroeconômicas estão ligadas ao momento histórico, ao grau de desenvolvimento das instituições e ao comportamento mais humano do homem econômico

Sur fond d’incertitude radicale, les entrepreneurs ne peuvent s’en remettre à un calcul précis de rentabilité. Pour les anticipations d’investissement, ils ont recours à leurs esprits animaux, c’est-à-dire un jugement analogique instinctif sur le futur associé à une décision émotionnelle automatique par rapport à lui en fonction de motivations. La notion remonte à l’Antiquité. Elle était synonyme d’influx nerveux. Si l’on interroge les neurosciences d’aujourd’hui, ce sont les marqueurs somatiques qui l’éclairent. Nos émotions servent à arrêter la réflexion, restreindre l’espace des possibles et valoriser certaines options. Elles contribuent à l’intelligence de nos décisions. C’est l’excès, de cognition ou d’émotion, qui est à éviter. Les émotions servent également à réviser ou renforcer nos croyances. Par leur mouvement propre, elles peuvent créer des cycles, ce que nous proposons d’appeler « le paradoxe de la confiance ». Une confiance élevée prépare le terrain de la chute future. À l’inverse, une confiance basse met peu à peu en place les conditions du retournement de conjoncture. Notre travail propose une analyse du raisonnement inductif en économie, à l’origine de l’élaboration de scénarios anticipatifs. Le capital culturel et symbolique semble également orienter les esprits animaux. Notre enquête empirique établit l’existence d’un lien entre capital culturel et prise de risque. Elle dessine aussi une typologie des esprits animaux à même de saisir l’hétérogénéité des entrepreneurs. 11 familles sont dégagées, en fonction de leurs motivations, émotions, capitaux culturels, comportements d’investissement et scénarios anticipatifs privilégiés. / In a background of fundamental uncertainty, entrepreneurs cannot rely on a precise calculus of profitability. For their investment expectations, they have to lean on their animal spirits, that is an analogical, instinctive judgment about the future associated with an automatic emotional decision under the guidance of motivations. The notion traces back to the Ancient times. She was then synonymous with “nerve impulse”. Nowadays, if one probes neuroscience, it appears that somatic markers could shed some light on them. Emotions are useful to stop thoughts, restrict the states of nature and value certain options. They contribute to the intelligence of decisions. It is the excess, be it of cognition or emotion, that is detrimental. Emotions also serve to update or strengthen our beliefs. By their own momentum, they can create cycles, which I propose to dub “the confidence paradox”. When confidence is high, the terrain for the future fall is being prepared. Conversely, when it is low, little by little the conditions for a reversal are being staged. Our work proposes an analysis of inductive reasoning responsible for the elaboration of anticipative scripts. Cultural and symbolic capital also appears to come into play. Our empirical inquiry establishes a link between cultural capital and risk-taking. It outlines as well a clustering of animal spirits so as to grasp the heterogeneity of entrepreneurs. 11 different sorts are outlined and sorted by their motivations, emotions, cultural capital, investment behaviors and preferred anticipative scripts.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:33:10Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ALMEIDA_Rafael_Galvao_2014.pdf: 727295 bytes, checksum: 401216b931951eb89ddf300efa7af38d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-02-26 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / This work had as its objective, by the means of a historic reconstruction of the history of econometrics, with emphasis on its business cycle models, to introduce the concept of performativity to the analysis of economic doctrines. The performativity argues that the line between theory and practice is thinner than it is thought, i. e., that in certain circumstances, the economic theory do not only describe the world, but it can influence it, it can make the agents change their behavior to conform to its predictions. For this, using the Keynes-Tinbergen debate as a background, we sought for evidence that showed the performative effects of the adoption of econometric methods onto the canon of the economic theory, once that studies showed performative effects with models used in the financial market. We conclude that, by the evaluation of the debate, its conclusion made possible emerge an econometric theory that, consequentially, could have performative effects in the economy. / Este trabalho teve como objetivo, por meio de uma reconstrução da história da econometria, envolvendo modelos do ciclo econômico, introduzir o conceito de performatividade à análise das doutrinas econômicas. A performatividade argumenta que a linha entre teoria e prática é muito mais tênue do que se imagina, isto é, de que em certas circunstâncias, a teoria econômica não apenas descreve o mundo, mas pode influenciá-lo, pode fazer com que os agentes modifiquem seu comportamento para se adequar às previsões da teoria. Para tal, utilizou-se como pano de fundo o debate Keynes-Tinbergen, buscou-se encontrar evidências que houve efeitos de performatividade na adoção de métodos econométricos ao cânone da teoria econômica, uma vez que estudos indicaram que certos níveis de performatividade ocorreram com modelos utilizados no mercado financeiro. Concluiu-se, pela avaliação do debate, que o desfecho possibilitou uma teoria da econometria que viria a se tornar dominante e, consequentemente, uma candidata a ter efeitos performativos na economia.

The economic policy of the Swedish Social Democrats has undergone major changes during the last thirty years. From using a so-called Keynesian policy to promote full employment in the economy, the Social Democrats have switched to a more monetaristic policy to promote low inflation instead. What I intend to do with this study is to see if the policy change also can be noticed in how the party describe their own policy. Have the Social Democrats been open and transparent with their change in priorities, or have they tried to hide this in their rhetoric? The purpose of this thesis is to examine if one can notice a change from a Keynesian to a monetaristic policy in the Social Democrat’s descriptions of their economic policy. The main research question, which I intend to answer, is: "Is it possible to notice a change from a Keynesian to monetaristic policy in the Social Democrat’s descriptions of their economic policy?" I have chosen to study the descriptions found in the financial forecasts, presented by the Social Democrats during their time in government rule between 1970 and 1999. The research method I use is the qualitative text analysis. After analyzing the descriptions found in the financial forecasts I present an answer to the main research question: Yes, it is partly possible to notice a change from a Keynesian to monetaristic policy in the Social Democrat’s descriptions of their economic policy. I only say partly possible because it is possible to notice the policy change that took place between the 1970s and 1980s, when low inflation was given the same priority as low unemployment. Whereas it is not possible to notice the change that took place between the 1980s and 1990s, when low inflation was given the highest priority, above low unemployment.

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