Thesis (MA (Political Science. International Studies))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: In an otherwise broad literature on civil conflict little attention has so far been paid to actual conflict violence and variation in severity. Existing work is also hampered by a reliance on a ‘closed polity’ model of the state, leading to disregard of the transnational dimensions of internal conflict, and by a dependence on over‐aggregated data. The present inquiry expands on the existing explanatory framework for variation in civil conflict severity by including transnational factors and characteristics of sub‐national actors. Data on conflict battle deaths are combined with recently available data on transnational ethnic linkages, transnational support and neighbouring conflict as well as other actor and country characteristics. Results from ordinary least squares regression analysis indicate that support for rebel groups from external non‐state actors increase conflict severity, while rebel presence in other states is associated with less severe conflicts. In addition, severity increases with duration but with a diminishing marginal return. Internal armed conflicts are less severe in democratic and ethnically polarised countries but rebel territorial control increases the level of violence. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In die andersins omvangryke literatuur oor burgerlike konflik is daar tot op hede min aandag geskenk aan werklike konflikgeweld en variasie in felheid (vernietigende omvang). Bestaande werk word ook belemmer omdat dit staat maak op ’n model van die staat as ‘geslote regering’, wat lei tot verontagsaming van die transnasionale dimensies van interne konflik, en staat maak op oor‐geaggregeerde data. Hierdie ondersoek brei uit op die bestaande verklarende raamwerk vir variasie in felheid van burgerlike konflik deur transnasionale faktore en eienskappe van subnasionale deelnemers in te sluit. Data oor konflikgevegsterftes is gekombineer met onlangse data oor transnasionale etniese koppelings, transnasionale steun en naburige konflik, sowel as ander deelnemer‐ en landeienskappe. Resultate van gewone kleinstekwadrate‐regressie‐analise dui daarop dat steun aan rebellegroepe deur eksterne nie‐staatsdeelnemers konflikfelheid laat toeneem, terwyl rebelleteenwoordigheid in ander lande geassosieer word met minder fel konflikte. Felheid neem ook toe saam met duur maar met ’n afnemende marginale opbrengs. Interne gewapende konflikte is minder fel in demokratiese en etnies gepolariseerde lande, maar rebellebeheer oor grondgebied verhoog die vlak van geweld.

近年來的研究顯示英美兩國的無風險利率存在著星期效應，但其股市報酬率的星期效應卻逐漸消失、甚至有反轉，因此本研究想探討台灣加權股價指數報酬率與無風險利率，是否存在著星期效應，抑或跟隨英美兩國的腳步，星期效應不再。此外，本研究亦探討風險溢酬的星期效應，試圖從中解開風險溢酬之謎(Equity Risk Premium)。 行政院於1998年至2000年實施「公務人員每月二次週休二日實施計劃」，台灣股票市場因此實施隔週休二日的制度，這特別的休市制度正好提供本研究進行交割效應假說所需的特殊樣本。認售權證正式於2003年7月上市掛牌買賣，因此去年下半年開始發行的認售權證交易量，亦正好提供本研究檢定投機放空假說所需的樣本。 實證結果顯示，大盤指數報酬率與風險溢酬有顯著的星期效應與週末效應，一週之中每日的報酬率並不相等，其中以週五與週六為最高，有顯著為正的報酬。而週一與週二平均報酬率為負但不顯著。而無風險利率有顯著的星期效應，但週末效應卻不顯著，一週之中每日的利率雖不相等但均顯著異於零。 更進一步探究報酬率、風險溢酬之星期效應與週末效應的成因，發現此星期效應、週末效應支持資訊處理假說、正向回饋假說與投機放空假說；但是卻不支持交割效應假說淤測量錯誤假說。因此得知台灣股票市場報酬率與風險溢酬之星期效應與週末效應的成因，乃為投資人在工作日與非工作日資訊處理成本的差異而導致；此外，過多的融券交易量亦為造成星期效應與週末效應的成因之一。 關鍵詞：星期效應、週末效應、風險溢酬、TLS模型、Power Ratio

A dynamic decision making framework implementing multi criteria routing of multimedia services at private-public network border with access technology convergence is presented. The ingredients of the framework include information model, semantics capturing via ontology, information sharing and dissemination mechanisms and rule/policy specifications methodology. The control and management over the infrastructure is carried out by revamping the sole signaling protocols (SIP, diameter and SNMP). DEN-ng is enhanced and tagged in accordance with the requirements over the underlying framework. A dedicated language for the platform is proposed that has its deep roots inside the framework to avoid conflicts and overlapping. A dynamic decision engine is developed for routing the requests/sessions at private-public network border over the underlying multi-homed environment. Multi Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) theory is used for decision computation/calculation and the adapted methods are exploited according to the scenario and decision computation mode while keeping in view the corresponding enforcement mode. A test bed is developed to validate the proposed framework. The proposed system offers higher throughput and lowers call-dropping probability with an add-on susceptible delay.

Lean management is becoming the standard for systematic productivity improvement, but the majority of implementations fail to sustain. Hence, the critical success factors for lean were the focus of this work. Literature review showed that the causality for lean success was not empirically developed beyond case study contextualisation. A multifaceted work was developed with contextualisation studies, survey of lean knowledge (758 responses), and a comprehensive case-study questionnaire (1253 responses from 44 countries). The statistical methods included exploratory factor analysis and path analysis by structural equation modelling (SEM). The first questionnaire revealed two different understandings of lean, and the second explored the underlying causality for lean success, including contingency for business size and product variety. Many contributions to the body of knowledge issued from this work. First of all, there was a methodological contribution, pioneering explorative structural modelling of full scope lean implementation. Second, SEMs of the lean knowledge-based view showed the profound positive effects of management knowledge on the primary factors for lean success. These factors were shown to be leadership and employee development. Third, the most beneficial lean methods were highlighted for specific scenarios. Fourth, the negligible and negative effects of a consultant-based approach to lean were uncovered. The results showed that the majority of consultants did not aid the long-term performance and sustainability of lean but significantly hindered it, except where masterful consultants acted as coaches. Fifth, a shortage of lean knowledge was observed in New Zealand; their participants averaged only half of what the USA�s did. Sixth, as culture has been emphasised in current literature, the present danger of overly focusing on it was discussed. Seventh was a conceptual contribution integrating lean and risk management, and a practical application with a risk analysis. This developed a risk matrix for the assessment and prioritisation of implementation components. Eighth, some adjustments to government lean strategies were proposed. And finally, the work integrated the findings in a tangible stage process model for implementation in SMEs. The dissemination of this knowledge has the potential to enhance productivity and commercial success of industries in New Zealand and abroad through successful lean implementations. Lean is not a weak methodology but it has been misunderstood and misapplied.

本研究欲觀察人口老化與所得分配之關係，檢視人口老化對於所得分配之影響，而文中主要分別從「內政部統計年報」、「家庭收支調查表」、「人力統計資源年報」以及各縣市統計要覽獲得各種解釋變數，建立出台灣1998年至2005年總計8年台灣各縣市之資料，並且以各縣市之吉尼係數為被解釋變數，採用最小平方法之方式藉此觀察台灣各縣市所得分配與人口老化之關係。 根據實證結果發現，人口老化與所得分配為顯著並且呈現正相關，亦即當人口老化更加嚴重時，將會導致較大的吉尼係數，造成所得不均之惡化。 其他解釋變數為顯著者分別有：平均每人可支配所得、平均每人可支配所得平方項、婦女勞動參與率以及各區域變數，且除了平均每人可支配所得平方項為負相關外，其餘皆與吉尼係數為正相關，其中所得方面之變數顯示出台灣中存在著Kuznets曲線；婦女勞動參與率的擴張則會導致所得分配更加惡化；中部、南部以及東部地區相對於北部區域來說其所得分配之狀況皆較不平均。而其他解釋變數如社會福利變數、教育變數以及工業變數所得之結果皆不顯著，顯示上述三個變數對台灣各縣市所得分配之影響在本研究中無法確定。 / This research discusses the relationship between aging population and income distribution, and examines how the aging population affects income distribution. The independent variables were acquired from the Statistical Yearbook of the Interior, The Survey of Family Income and Expenditure, the Statistical Yearbook of Labor Force and the Statistical Yearbook from each twenty-three counties and cities in Taiwan to construct a data set from 1998 to 2005. Using the ordinary least squares method and choosing the gini coefficient as a dependent variable to observe the relationship between income distribution and aging population. According to the result of the empirical study, we discover that the effect of aging population is significant and has a positive relationship with income distribution. Income inequality is worse when the aging population increases. Other significant independent variables are disposable income per person, the square of disposable income per person, female labor participation rate and the regional dummy variables. Besides the square of disposable income per person, all variables have a positive relationship with the gini coefficient. In addition, the variable of income shows that Kuznets curve appears in Taiwan. The expansion of the female labor participation will cause the income distribution to change into inequality. Also the north region has the worst income distribution in Taiwan. The results of the social welfare variable, the education variable and the industry variable are insignificant so that in this article we can not observe how the three variables effect the income distribution in Taiwan.

利率模型從早期的短期利率模型、遠期利率模型發展到現在的市場模型。在模型的概念上，已經從市場上不存在的瞬間連續利率修正到市場上可觀察的區間連續的遠期利率。而評價方法的進步，使得市場上發展出各式各樣的利率衍生性商品，其中付「提前贖回條款」的債券很常見。為吸引投資人，附提前贖回條款的債券往往伴隨著高配息。本文選用「12年期美金計價『利率區間』連動債券」與「十年期美元計價息滿到期反浮動利率連動債券」做個案分析，在市場模型之下，評價具提前贖回條款的債券。

Mobile technologies are emerging as one way to help address health challenges in many countries, including in Least Developed Countries. Mobile technology can reach a large share of the population but in order to provide effective support to healthcare services, technology, information collection and dissemination, and work processes need to be well aligned. The thesis uses a design science methodological approach and mixes qualitative and quantitative data analysis to address the question of, How can mobile technologies be effectively integrated with routine healthcare services? The study concerns the design, implementation, and evaluation of a mobile technology-based system, called SMSaúde, with the aim of improving the care of patients with HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis in Mozambique. The work started with the elicitation of functional and user requirements, based on focus group discussions. An important challenge, as in many mHealth interventions, was the integration with routine healthcare services and the existing IT systems, as well as developing a scalable technical structure. The system has now been in routine use since 2013 in more than 16 healthcare clinics in Mozambique. Evaluation was done by a randomised controlled study. Analysis of patient records showed that retention in care in urban areas was significantly higher in the intervention group than in the control group. In a user study both patients and health professionals were very positive to the system. The thesis contributes to research by demonstrating how information system artefacts can be constructed and successfully implemented in resource-constrained settings. The practical contributions include the designed artefact itself as well as improved healthcare practices and mHealth policy recommendations.

Health has long been referred to as a contributing development factor for economic growth, and health investments have been implemented as a strategy for achieving economic development. However, several countries have reached economic growth before improving health status, which raises questions of the significance of public health related to economic growth. The economic inequalities between countries tend to increase along with enlarged differences in health status, is there possibly a correlation between these occurrences? The purpose of this essay is to make a theoretical contribution by examining the impact of health on economic growth based on the world’s least developed countries (LDCs). This relationship has not been studied within these countries before and the essay intends to find out if basic health is a prerequisite for economic growth. The hypothesis of the study is a positive correlation between improvement of health status in a population within a country and its economic growth. Quantitative approach through a cross-sectional study of the independent variables health investments, initial GDP per capita, life expectancy and HIV along with the dependent variable of GDP per capita growth. Data from 48 LDCs during the period 1995 – 2015 was obtained. A regression analysis of Ordinary Least Squares, VIF-test and QQ-plot was performed through the computer program Gretl 2016c.  The variation in GDP per capita growth can be explained to 75 % by changes in the health-related variables. Previous theories regarding the positive effect on economic growth from increased health investments, lower initial GDP per capita and increased life expectancy were supported in this study. Health investments and initial GDP per capita showed a statistically significant correlation to economic growth. Life expectancy lacked significance, but was supported by previous research. The variable for HIV showed a positive correlation to economic growth, contrary to previous theories. The relationship can although be explained by insufficient data and low significance. / Hälsa har länge benämnts som en bidragande utvecklingsfaktor för ekonomisk tillväxt och hälsoinvesteringar har använts som en strategi för att uppnå ekonomisk utveckling. Samtidigt har flera länder uppnått ekonomisk tillväxt innan förbättrad hälsostatus vilket leder till funderingar kring vilken roll befolkningens hälsa egentligen spelar för landets ekonomiska tillväxt. De ekonomiska ojämlikheterna länder emellan tenderar att öka och skillnaden i hälsostatusen likaså, finns det möjligtvis ett samband kring detta? Syfte: Uppsatsens syfte är att bringa ett teoretiskt bidrag genom att undersöka hälsans inverkan på ekonomisk tillväxt med utgångspunkt i världens minst utvecklade länder (MUL-länder). Detta samband har tidigare inte studerats inom dessa länder och uppsatsen avser att ta reda på om en grundläggande god hälsa förefaller vara en förutsättning för ekonomisk tillväxt. Hypotesen för uppsatsen är ett positivt samband mellan ett förbättrat hälsotillstånd hos ett lands befolkning och dess ekonomiska tillväxt. Frågeställning: Leder en förbättrad hälsa till ökad ekonomisk tillväxt i världens minst utvecklade länder? Metod: Kvantitativt tillvägagångssätt genom en tvärsnittsstudie av de oberoende variablerna statens hälsoinvesteringar, initial BNP per capita, förväntad livslängd och HIV samt den beroende variabeln tillväxt i BNP per capita. Data från 48 MUL-länder under perioden 1995 – 2015 inhämtades. I dataprogrammet Gretl 2016c utfördes en regressionsanalys av typen Minsta kvadratmetoden, VIF-test samt QQ-plot. Slutsats: Variationen i tillväxten i BNP per capita kan till 75 % förklaras av förändringar i de hälsorelaterade variablerna. Tidigare teorier kring positiva effekter på den ekonomiska tillväxten från ökade hälsoinvesteringar, lägre initialt BNP per capita och ökad livslängd förstärktes i denna undersökning. Hälsoinvesteringar och initialt BNP per capita visade ett statistiskt säkerställt samband till den ekonomiska tillväxten. Förväntad livslängd saknade signifikans, men stöds av tidigare forskning. Variabeln för HIV visade ett positivt samband på ekonomisk tillväxt vilket strider mot tidigare teorier. Sambandet kan dock förklaras av bristfällig data och låg signifikansnivå.

Iran is one of the most complicated areas in the world from the view of rough topography, tectonic activity, large lateral density and geoidal height variations. The computation of a regional gravimetric geoid model with high accuracy in mountainous regions, especially with sparse data, is a difficult task that needs a special attention to obtain reliable results which can meet the needs of the today geodetic community. In this research different heterogeneous data has been used, which includes gravity anomalies, the high-resolution SRTM Digital Elevation Model (DEM), recently published GRACE Global Geopotential Models (GGMs), geological maps and GPS/levelling data. The above data has been optimally combined through the least-squares modification of Stokes formula with additive corrections. Regarding the data evaluation and refinement, the cross-validation technique has been used for detection of outliers. Also, several GGMs and DEMs are evaluated with GPS/levelling data. The impact of utilizing a high resolution SRTM DEM to improve the accuracy of the geoid model has been studied. Also, a density variation model has been established, and its effect on the accuracy of the geoid was investigated. Thereafter a new height datum for Iran was established based on the corrective surface idea. Finally, it was found that there is a significant correlation between the lateral geoid slope and the tectonic activities in Iran. We show that our hybrid gravimetric geoid model IRG04 agrees considerably better with GPS/levelling than any of the other recent local geoid models in the area. Its RMS fit with GPS/levelling is 27 cm and 3.8 ppm in the absolute and relative senses, respectively. Moreover, the relative accuracy of the IRG04 geoid model is at least 4 times better than any of the previously published global and regional geoid models in the area. Also, the RMS fit of the combined surface model (IRG04C) versus independent precise GPS/levelling is almost 4 times better compared to the original gravimetric geoid model (IRG04). These achievements clearly show the effect of the new gravity database and the SRTM data for the regional geoid determination in Iran based on the least-squares modification of Stokes’ formula. / <p>QC 20100906</p>

L’analyse biomécanique du mouvement humain en utilisant des systèmes optoélectroniques et des marqueurs cutanés considère les segments du corps comme des corps rigides. Cependant, le mouvement des tissus mous par rapport à l'os, c’est à dire les muscles et le tissu adipeux, provoque le déplacement des marqueurs. Ce déplacement est le fait de deux composantes, une composante propre correspondant au mouvement aléatoire de chaque marqueur et une composante à l’unisson provoquant le déplacement commun des marqueurs cutanés lié au mouvement des masses sous-jacentes. Si nombre d’études visent à minimiser ces déplacements, des simulations ont montré que le mouvement des masses molles réduit la dynamique articulaire. Cette observation est faite uniquement par la simulation, car il n'existe pas de méthodes capables de dissocier la cinématique des masses molles de celle de l’os. L’objectif principal de cette thèse consiste à développer une méthode numérique capable de distinguer ces deux cinématiques. Le premier objectif était d'évaluer une méthode d'optimisation locale pour estimer le mouvement des masses molles par rapport à l’humérus obtenu avec une tige intra-corticale vissée chez trois sujets. Les résultats montrent que l'optimisation locale sous-estime de 50% le déplacement des marqueurs et qu’elle conduit à un classement de marqueurs différents en fonction de leur déplacement. La limite de cette méthode vient du fait qu'elle ne tient pas compte de l’ensemble des composantes du mouvement des tissus mous, notamment la composante en unisson. Le second objectif était de développer une méthode numérique qui considère toutes les composantes du mouvement des tissus mous. Plus précisément, cette méthode devait fournir une cinématique similaire et une plus grande estimation du déplacement des marqueurs par rapport aux méthodes classiques et dissocier ces composantes. Le membre inférieur est modélisé avec une chaine cinématique de 10 degrés de liberté reconstruite par optimisation globale en utilisant seulement les marqueurs placés sur le pelvis et la face médiale du tibia. L’estimation de la cinématique sans considérer les marqueurs placés sur la cuisse et le mollet permet d'éviter l’influence de leur déplacement sur la reconstruction du modèle cinématique. Cette méthode testée sur 13 sujets lors de sauts a obtenu jusqu’à 2,1 fois plus de déplacement des marqueurs en fonction de la méthode considérée en assurant des cinématiques similaires. Une approche vectorielle a montré que le déplacement des marqueurs est surtout dû à la composante à l’unisson. Une approche matricielle associant l’optimisation locale à la chaine cinématique a montré que les masses molles se déplacent principalement autour de l'axe longitudinal et le long de l'axe antéro-postérieur de l'os. L'originalité de cette thèse est de dissocier numériquement la cinématique os de celle des masses molles et les composantes de ce mouvement. Les méthodes développées dans cette thèse augmentent les connaissances sur le mouvement des masses molles et permettent d’envisager l’étude de leur effet sur la dynamique articulaire. / Biomechanical analysis of human movement using optoelectronic system and skin markers considers body segments as rigid bodies. However the soft tissue motion relative to the bone, including muscles, fat mass, results in relative displacement of markers. This displacement is the results of two components, an own component which corresponds to a random motion of each marker and an in-unison component corresponding to the common movement of skin markers resulting from the movement of the underlying wobbling mass. While most studies aim to minimize these displacements, computer simulation models have shown that the movement of the soft tissue motion relative to the bones reduces the joint kinetics. This observation is only available using computer simulations because there are no methods able to distinguish the kinematics of wobbling mass of the bones kinematics. The main objective of this thesis is to develop a numerical method able to distinguish this different kinematics. The first aim of this thesis was to assess a local optimisation method for estimating the soft tissue motion using intra-cortical pins screwed into the humerus in three subjects. The results show that local optimisation underestimates of 50% the marker displacements. Also it leads to a different marker ranking in terms of displacement. The limit of local optimisation comes from the fact that it does not consider all the components of the soft tissue motion, especially the in-unison component. The second aim of this thesis was to develop a numerical method that accounts for all the component of the soft tissue motion. More specifically, this method should provide similar kinematics and estimate large marker displacement and distinguish the two components to conventional approaches. The lower limb is modeled using a 10 degree of freedom chain model reconstructed using global optimisation and the markers placed only on the pelvis and the medial face of the shank. The original estimate of joint kinematics without considering the markers placed on the thigh and on the calf avoids the influences of these markers displacement on the kinematic model reconstruction. This method was tested on 13 subjects who performed hopping trials and obtained up to 2.1 times of marker displacement depending the method considered ensuring similar joint-kinematics. A vector approach shown that marker displacements is more induce by the in-unison component. A matrix approach combining the local optimisation and the kinematic model shown that the wobbling mass moves around the longitudinal axis and along the antero-posterior axis of the bone. The originality of this thesis is to numerically distinguish the bone kinematics from the wobbling mass kinematics and the two components of the soft tissue motion. The methods developed in this thesis increases the knowledge on soft tissue motion and allow future studies to consider their movement in joint kinetics calculation.