Esta dissertação de mestrado tem como objetivo analisar como o conceito de periferia foi construído socialmente, ao longo da segunda metade do século XX, como um conceito que se pretendeu explicativo dos fenômenos urbanos na metrópole de São Paulo. A idéia da metrópole como uma estrutura urbana configurada por um centro e uma periferia tem sido uma forma geral de descrever e mesmo explicar as dinâmicas de crescimento urbano de São Paulo. Trata-se de um modelo de entendimento resultante de um rico período de debates, pesquisas e processos sociais que levaram à construção da noção de periferia como uma noção explicativa das particularidades do desenvolvimento urbano de uma metrópole em um país industrial subdesenvolvido. A dissertação procura identificar o contexto do debate acadêmico em que periferia passa a ser utilizada com um sentido específico na literatura do campo de pesquisas urbanas da década de 1970, marcadamente do pensamento crítico brasileiro (sobre a formação da sociedade brasileira que visava a formulação de um projeto de desenvolvimento nacional com a superação das desigualdades sociais) e da sociologia urbana francesa. Apresenta pesquisas e ensaios que conceituam periferia e a colocam no centro da questão urbana no Brasil, e que levaram à incorporação da periferia como objeto de estudo e tema central da pesquisa urbana. A noção de periferia é uma construção social relacionada a práticas e discursos de sujeitos sociais e políticos de um contexto histórico específico, de ascensão dos chamados movimentos sociais urbanos, e de intensas mudanças na sociedade brasileira: a transição de um regime político autoritário e centralizador, para uma abertura democrática; e a passagem de um contexto de intenso crescimento econômico de base urbana-industrial para um período de recessão e agravamento dos problemas urbanos e sociais. Ao abordar a noção de periferia, procurando entender em que condições, este conceito adquire uma centralidade na questão urbana brasileira e como este conceito reforça uma chave de leitura das contradições da sociedade brasileira, pretendemos contribuir para a construção de um pensamento urbano que busque constituir questões relacionadas aos reais problemas das cidades brasileiras. Esta é certamente uma tarefa muito mais ampla que o âmbito deste trabalho. Escolhemos explorar este caminho de estudos, entendendo que a noção de periferia, está ainda fortemente presente nas leituras da metrópole de São Paulo, mas esvaziada da carga teórica que a constituiu. Superar esta visão significa voltar a pesquisa urbana para os fatores determinantes no processo de produção do espaço urbano, da segregação sócio-espacial, de deterioração do ambiente urbano e da qualidade de vida na cidade. Por meio da crítica e da identificação das limitações das formas de conhecimento que temos sobre as questões urbanas hoje, podemos construir novas bases para a apreensão das lógicas efetivas que regem a produção da cidade. / This essay intends to analyze how the concept of periphery was socially built, during the second half of the 20th century, as a concept that meant to explain the urban phenomena that took place in São Paulos metropolis. The idea of ametropolis structured by a center and a periphery has been a dominant way to describe and even to explain urban growth in São Paulo. This view of the urban environment based on a certain approach is resultant from a rich period of debates, researches and social processes, in which periphery has been built as a notion related to the particularities of the urban development in a metropolis of an underdeveloped country. The essay identifies the historical moment in which periphery turns out to be employed in a specific sense in the academic literature of the urban research in the 70s. The concept of periphery receives great influence of the Brazilian critical intellectual production, that started to understand the particularities of Brazils social structure in order to propose alternative development paths (aiming at overcoming the social inequalities); and also received the influence from French urban sociology. This work presents researches and essays produced in the field of Brazilian urban research, that focus on the conception of periphery as the central idea to understand the urban question in Brazil. The notion of periphery is a social construction related to social practices and discourses of social and political subjects that took place in a specific historical context, marked by the rise of the so called urban social movements, and by intense political and economic change, such as the transition from an authoritarian and centralized government to a democratic government, and the transition from a period of intense urban and economic growth, to a period of economic depression and growth of urban and social problems. By studying the notion of periphery and trying to understand why, and in which conditions this notion becomes central to urban studies, and how it reinforces a view of the contradictions of Brazilian social structure, we intend to contribute to the construction of a urban approach linked to the real problems of Brazilian cities. This is certainly a larger task than we are capable of undertaking. But we chose to exploit this theme understanding that the notion of periphery is still very present in the view of São Paulo Metropolis urban structure, though its theoretical basis has lost significance. Overcoming this view of the metropolis means to point urban research toward the real determinant factors of the production of urban space, the production of social spatial segregation, of the deterioration of the urban habitat, and life quality in the city. By identifying the limitations of the notion of periphery and the usual ways of explaining urban matters, it is possible to build new bases that will allow to apprehend the effective logics that conduct the production of urban space.

[pt] Este estudo é decorrente de uma inquietação a respeito de um tema bastante atual: A favela. A existência de uma crise urbana e habitacional na atualidade traz à tona a discussão sobre as favelas nas grandes metrópoles brasileiras, como uma das questões mais importantes a serem discutidas no espaço urbano. Cada vez mais as favelas estão evidenciadas na paisagem urbana, tornando-se necessário o entendimento da dinâmica das áreas faveladas e também da sua relação com a metrópole. Temos aqui o objetivo de mostrar a favela como a expressão de alguns conflitos no espaço urbano atual, utilizando como exemplo a Zona Sul da cidade do Rio de Janeiro, buscando apontar as principais contradições que envolvem a presença das áreas faveladas em bairros voltados para grupos sociais de alta renda na cidade. Buscamos, portanto, observar os elementos que expressam estes conflitos e entender até que ponto esta população favelada participa do cotidiano dos bairros em estudo, uma discussão que envolve, portanto, a questão do direito à cidade. Entendemos que estes conflitos são também simbólicos e perpassam a questão do estigma que envolve a favela e o favelado no Rio de Janeiro, por isso, buscamos também exemplificar o quanto estes conflitos e contradições contribuem para acirrar este estigma e a distância entre a favela e o bairro. / [en] This study is due to a concern about a very current topic: the slum. The existence of an urban and housing crisis in the news brings up the discussion on the slums in major Brazilian cities, as one of the most important issues to be discussed in the urban space. More and more are discussed in the slums in the urban landscape, making it necessary to understand the dynamics of slum areas and also its relationship with the metropolis. Here we have the objective of showing the slum as the expression of some conflicts in urban areas, utilizing the example of the South Zone of Rio de Janeiro, pointing the main contradictions involving the presence of the shantytowns in neighborhoods facing social groups high income in the city. We seek, therefore, to observe the elements that express these conflicts and to understand the extent to which this part of the slum population of the districts daily in the study, a discussion that involves, therefore, the issue of right to the city. We believe that these conflicts are also symbolic and run through the issue of stigma surrounding the slum and the slum in Rio de Janeiro, so, we seek also illustrate how these conflicts and contradictions contribute to exacerbate the stigma and the distance between the slum and the neighborhood.

Ville et musiques amplifiées sont intimement liées, ainsi l’étude d’une scène artistique peut éclairer le fonctionnement d’un système métropolitain et les enjeux liés aux recompositions des territoires. Cette thèse a pour objectif de le montrer au regard de l’exemple toulousain. Toulouse représente une scène riche et diversifiée, constituée d’un fourmillement d’initiatives associatives, dont les activités révèlent des logiques multiples d’ancrage au territoire, sans cesse renouvelées. L’exploitation d’une série de plusieurs enquêtes de terrain menées auprès des acteurs de la scène locale conduit à décrypter les rouages du territoire des musiques amplifiées. Ces acteurs investissent des lieux, se structurent en réseaux, impulsent des dynamiques territoriales spécifiques… Ils offrent une entrée originale pour aider à comprendre les mutations socio-spatiales et engager une réflexion sur l’implication citoyenne dans la vie de la cité. / City and amplified music are closely intertwined, thereby the study of an artistic scene can shed light on the working of a metropolitan system and the issues related to territorial recomposition. This thesis aims to show it under the example of Toulouse. Toulouse is a rich and diverse scene, consisting of a swarm of association initiatives that reveal multiple logical territorial ties, constantly renewed. The use of several field surveys conducted with actors from the local scene allows us to decipher the workings of the amplified music's domain. These actors gather into places, are structured in networks, spurring specific territorial dynamics. They offer an innovative input to help understand the socio-spatial transformation and reflect on citizen involvement in civic life.

The multinomial logit model (MNL) possesses a latent variable representation in terms of random variables following a multivariate logistic distribution. Based on multivariate finite mixture approximations of the multivariate logistic distribution, various data-augmented Metropolis-Hastings algorithms are developed for a Bayesian inference of the MNL model.

La recherche d’une mobilité plus durable constitue aujourd’hui un souci partagé chez les responsables des grandes villes du monde, qui doivent alléger la pression des transports sur l’espace (congestion), la qualité de vie (nuisances, accidents), l’environnement (émissions de CO2) en maintenant leur capacité de développement et en préservant ou améliorant leur cohésion sociale. C’est le cas sur nos terrains d’étude, qui sont l’Île-de-France, Shanghai et Taipei. Cette recherche de durabilité s’inscrit dans un contexte historique, géographique et culturel, qui prédétermine l’état de la mobilité et de ses évolutions sur les territoires. Notre première partie est consacrée à l’analyse de la mobilité et de ses dynamiques sur ces trois terrains. Les moyens d’aller vers cette durabilité peuvent reposer sur le progrès technologique, la planification urbaine, la tarification des systèmes et les évolutions d’usage des modes. Des transferts des modes individuels vers le transport public sont généralement considérés comme souhaitables, et le développement de transport intermodal est une des conditions de ce développement. Notre travail distingue fortement le bus et le rail dans les modes collectifs, et le vélo, les deux-roues motorisés et la voiture dans les modes individuels. Il porte sur les perspectives de transfert modal et le rôle potentiel de l’intermodalité. Ces perspectives dépendent de trois types de coûts : les coûts qualifiés d’« externes », qui motivent le besoin de plus de durabilité ; les coûts pour l’usager, qui déterminent largement ses comportements ; les coûts d’investissement et d’exploitation des systèmes, dont une part souvent importante est financée par les pouvoirs publics et les impôts. La caractérisation théorique, la modélisation et l’évaluation empirique de ces coûts pour les trois terrains d’étude sont l’objet de la partie II. La comparaison des coûts par voyageur-km entre modes individuels et modes collectifs fait apparaître qu’aucun ne peut être meilleur que les autres sur les trois postes de coûts, et que les différences dépendent de plus des types de déplacements (longueurs, origines-destinations, etc.). La partie III est de nature plus prospective. Elle présente d’une part les schémas de développement des territoires et des transports adoptés par les responsables de ces territoires. Elle explore d’autre part les capacités à aller vers une mobilité plus durable à partir des comparaisons issues de nos territoires et des évaluations de coûts menées dans la partie II. Deux politiques importantes sont explorées : les politiques de stationnement et les politiques de tarification des transport publics ; Les travaux présentés dans ce mémoire de thèse ont pour but de contribuer au développement de ce modèle d’évaluation des coûts de déplacement et d’une méthode de diagnostic permettant de proposer des visions des transports dans le cadre de développement durable et d’orienter les politiques de déplacement vers plus de durabilité et d’intermodalité. / The research of a more sustainable mobility today constitutes a concern shared for persons in charge of the metropolises in the world, which must reduce the pressure of road space (congestion), the quality of life (harmful effects, accidents), the environment (CO2 emissions) and maintain their capacity of development and preserve or improve their social cohesion. There are three case studies in our research, the greater Paris region, Shanghai and Taipei. This search for sustainability falls within a historical, geographical and cultural context, which predetermines the state of mobility and its evolutions on the metropolis. Thus, our first part of research work is devoted to the analysis of mobility and its dynamics on these three metropolises. The means for realizing this sustainability can rest on technological progress, the urban planning, the systems of prices and the evolutions of transport use. The transfer of the individual modes by the public transport is generally regarded as desirable, and the development of intermodal transport is one of the conditions of this development. Our work strongly distinguishes the bus and the rail which belong to the collective modes, and the bicycle, the two-wheel motorized vehicles and car which belong to the individual modes. It focuses on the prospects for modal transfer and the potential role of the intermodality. In fact, these prospects depend on three types of costs: the costs described as "external", which justify the need of sustainability; the costs for the user, which largely determine their trip behaviours; the costs of investment and exploitation of systems, whose are often financed by the authorities and the taxes. The theoretical characterization, the modelling and the empirical evaluation of these costs for the three case studies are the object of second part in our research. The comparison of the costs brought by passenger-km between individual modes and collective modes reveals that none can be better than the others on the three types of costs, and the differences depend on the types of trips (lengths, origin-destinations, etc). The third part in our research is more prospective nature. On the one hand, it presents the diagrams of development for territories and transport adopted by the persons in charge for these metropolises. On the other hand, it explores the capacities for going towards a more sustainable mobility from the comparisons through the case study and the evaluation of trip costs carried out in second part. Two significant policies are explored: parking policies and price policies of public transport. The purpose of the work presented in this dissertation aims at contributing to the development of this model of evaluation for trip costs and a method of diagnosis making it possible to propose visions of transport within the framework of sustainable development and to turn the policies of urban mobility towards more sustainability and intermodality.

Orientador: Regina Célia Bega dos Santos / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Geociências / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-27T09:55:04Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Santos_IsaacRodrigues_M.pdf: 5444174 bytes, checksum: 0e963446dfd6b7c9bc260690081b94b5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Resumo: Esta dissertação discute a problemática da mobilidade urbana na metrópole paulistana, tendo como recorte espacial de análise a região Sudoeste, cujos municípios têm diferenças entre si no que diz respeito à disponibilidade de meios de transporte e de integração entre os modais, fenômeno que resulta em maior e menor mobilidade das pessoas que circulam diariamente pelo espaço urbano metropolitano, sobretudo em relação ao trajeto da moradia para o trabalho e vice versa. Sendo assim, os únicos beneficiados com um sistema de transporte desigual, do ponto de vista qualitativo entre os diversos lugares, sem dúvida são os empresários, que reproduzem seu capital de forma continua, sendo que o trabalhador paga alto preço para circular pela região metropolitana. Assim, a mobilidade é um dos elementos mais essenciais para o desenvolvimento da sociedade e para que haja uma apropriação efetiva do espaço urbano, sobretudo por parte dos mais pobres, para que haja, de fato, uma vivência plena no espaço urbano / Abstract: On this Master Thesis it will be discussed the issue of urban mobility in the metropolis of São Paulo, focusing the analysis to the Southwest region, whose municipalities have differences among themselves regarding to the availability of ways of transport and integration between modes, a phenomenon that results in higher and lower mobility of people circulating daily around the metropolitan urban space, especially towards to the route of their houses to work and vice versa. Therefore, the only benefited from an unequal transportation system, from a qualitative point of view among different locations, doubtless are the entrepreneurs who reproduce their capital continuously, because of the high prices paid by simple workers to circulate the around the metropolitan area. Thus, mobility is one of the most essential elements for the development of society and in order to create an effective appropriation of urban space, especially for the poorest people, and, in fact, provide a full experience in urban space / Mestrado / Análise Ambiental e Dinâmica Territorial / Mestre em Geografia

This thesis develops a new Bayesian approach to structural break modeling. The focuses of the approach are the modeling of in-sample structural breaks and forecasting time series allowing out-of-sample breaks. Our model has some desirable features. First, the number of regimes is not fixed and is treated as a random variable in our model. Second, our model adopts a hierarchical prior for regime coefficients, which allows for the regime coefficients of one regime to contain information about regime coefficients of other regimes. However, the regime coefficients can be analytically integrated out of the posterior distribution and therefore we only need to deal with one level of the hierarchy. Third, the implementation of our model is simple and the computational cost is low. Our model is applied to two different time series: S&P 500 monthly returns and U.S. real GDP quarterly growth rates. We linked breaks detected by our model to certain historical events.

Ce travail de thèse propose une nouvelle approche au traitement des langues naturelles. Plutôt qu'essayer d'estimer directement la probabilité d'une phrase quelconque, nous identifions des structures syntaxiques dans le langage, qui peuvent être utilisées pour modifier et créer de nouvelles phrases à partir d'un échantillon initial. L'étude des structures syntaxiques est accomplie avec des ensembles de substitution Markoviens, ensembles de chaînes de caractères qui peuvent être échangées sans affecter la distribution. Ces ensembles définissent des processus de substitution Markoviens qui modélisent l'indépendance conditionnelle de certaines chaînes vis-À-Vis de leur contexte. Ce point de vue décompose l'analyse du langage en deux parties, une phase de sélection de modèle, où les ensembles de substitution sont sélectionnés, et une phase d'estimation des paramètres, où les fréquences pour chaque ensemble sont estimées. Nous montrons que ces processus constituent des familles exponentielles quand la structure du langage est fixée. Lorsque la structure du langage est inconnue, nous proposons des méthodes pour identifier des ensembles de substitution à partir d'un échantillon, et pour estimer les paramètres de la distribution. Les ensembles de substitution ont quelques relations avec les grammaires hors-Contexte, qui peuvent être utilisées pour aider l'analyse. Nous construisons alors des dynamiques invariantes pour les processus de substitution. Elles peuvent être utilisées pour calculer l'estimateur du maximum de vraisemblance. En effet, les processus de substitution peuvent être vus comme la limite thermodynamique de la mesure invariante d'une dynamique de crossing-Over. / This thesis proposes a new approach to natural language processing. Rather than trying to estimate directly the probability distribution of a random sentence, we will detect syntactic structures in the language, which can be used to modify and create new sentences from an initial sample.The study of syntactic structures will be done using Markov substitute sets, sets of strings that can be freely substituted in any sentence without affecting the whole distribution. These sets define the notion of Markov substitute processes, modelling conditional independence of certain substrings (given by the sets) with respect to their context. This point of view splits the issue of language analysis into two parts, a model selection stage where Markov substitute sets are selected, and a parameter estimation stage where the actual frequencies for each set are estimated.We show that these substitute processes form exponential families of distributions, when the language structure (the Markov substitute sets) is fixed. On the other hand, when the language structure is unknown, we propose methods to identify Markov substitute sets from a statistical sample, and to estimate the parameters of the distribution. Markov substitute sets show some connections with context-Free grammars, that can be used to help the analysis. We then proceed to build invariant dynamics for Markov substitute processes. They can among other things be used to effectively compute the maximum likelihood estimate. Indeed, Markov substitute models can be seen as the thermodynamical limit of the invariant measure of crossing-Over dynamics.

Cette thèse porte sur l’émergence de Harlem comme métropole noire dans les années 20, sur son déclin progressif dans les années 30 et sur les répercussions sur la communauté qui y réside, qui le transforme et le pratique à travers des actions et des discours. Durant ces deux décennies, le quartier subit des mutations importantes dans sa structure et par conséquent dans ses représentations. Harlem se transforme en quartier noir à population éclectique, et en métropole culturelle, artistique et intellectuelle qui génère aussi bien succès et fierté identitaire que débats et dissensions. Harlem devient aussi un ghetto aux conditions de vie fortement dégradées mais qui déclenchent la mobilisation politique des Harlémites qui s’expriment et affirment leur volonté de peser sur la scène nationale malgré leurs divisons. Lieu de paradoxes, lieu hétérogène aux multiples facettes, en proie aux tensions intracommunautaires et intercommunautaires, Harlem garde malgré tout une certaine unité et se construit autour de ses contradictions comme un lieu emblématique de la communauté afro-américaine.A travers une approche pluridisciplinaire et à travers un examen approfondi de sources primaires comme la presse, noire et blanche, locale et nationale, ainsi qu’un travail sur les productions artistiques, notamment celles de la Harlem Renaissance, et des ouvrages sociologiques et historiques de l’époque, cette thèse cherche à rendre compte des transformations de Harlem, espace géographique et espace-imagé, et à analyser la naissance, la renaissance et les représentations de cet espace urbain si particulier. / This Ph.D. dissertation deals with the rising of Harlem as a Black Metropolis in the 1920s, its progressive decline in the 1930s and the consequences regarding the inhabitants practicing this urban space through their actions and discourses. During these two decades, the neighborhood underwent profound changes in its structure as well as in its representations. Harlem became a black neighborhood with a heterogeneous population, and a cultural, artistic and intellectual metropolis which fostered success and identity pride as well as debates and dissent. Harlem turned also into a ghetto where living conditions deteriorated drastically; nevertheless Harlemites continued to express themselves and asserted their will to gain as a group on the national scene despite strong divisions. A heterogeneous neighborhood with multiple facets, rife with intra- and interracial tensions, Harlem nevertheless kept some unity and built itself around its contradictions.This Ph.D. dissertation adopts a multidisciplinary approach privileging a thorough examination of primary sources, in particular the Black and White press, both local and national. It also engages in a detailed study of artistic productions of the time, among them those of the Harlem Renaissance, as well as historical and sociological studies of that period. This study attempts to analyze the transformations of Harlem, the geographical and the imaginary space, and to follow the birth, the renaissance and the representations of this unique urban space.

<div>Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes widely used in a variety of applied disciplines. Inference typically proceeds via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), the state-of-the-art being a uniformization-based auxiliary variable Gibbs sampler. This was designed for situations where the process parameters are known, and Bayesian inference over unknown parameters is typically carried out by incorporating it into a larger Gibbs sampler. This strategy of sampling parameters given path, and path given parameters can result in poor Markov chain mixing.</div><div><br></div><div>In this thesis, we focus on the problem of path and parameter inference for Markov jump processes.</div><div><br></div><div>In the first part of the thesis, a simple and efficient MCMC algorithm is proposed to address the problem of path and parameter inference for Markov jump processes. Our scheme brings Metropolis-Hastings approaches for discrete-time hidden Markov models to the continuous-time setting, resulting in a complete and clean recipe for parameter and path inference in Markov jump processes. In our experiments, we demonstrate superior performance over Gibbs sampling, a more naive Metropolis-Hastings algorithm we propose, as well as another popular approach, particle Markov chain Monte Carlo. We also show our sampler inherits geometric mixing from an ‘ideal’ sampler that is computationally much more expensive.</div><div><br></div><div>In the second part of the thesis, a novel collapsed variational inference algorithm is proposed. Our variational inference algorithm leverages ideas from discrete-time Markov chains, and exploits a connection between Markov jump processes and discrete-time Markov chains through uniformization. Our algorithm proceeds by marginalizing out the parameters of the Markov jump process, and then approximating the distribution over the trajectory with a factored distribution over segments of a piecewise-constant function. Unlike MCMC schemes that marginalize out transition times of a piecewise-constant process, our scheme optimizes the discretization of time, resulting in significant computational savings. We apply our ideas to synthetic data as well as a dataset of check-in recordings, where we demonstrate superior performance over state-of-the-art MCMC methods.</div><div><br></div>