Diploma thesis "Neoclassical Realism and the Dynamics of Power in Eastern Asia: U.S. Foreign Policy toward China" is testing specific theoretical propositions of neoclassical realism on the evolution of U.S. foreign policy toward China from 1950 until present. This single case study uses congruence method and process-tracing to test the effect of intervening variables on the foreign policy deviation from neorealist proposition. Paper assesses theoretical progressivity of neoclassical realism and on this basis analyzes possible future evolution of Sino-American relations and in similar fashion presents suggestions to effective U.S. foreign policy.

The diploma thesis focuses on great power politics at the dawn of the twenty-first century. The studied phenomenon is viewed through the lens of defensive, offensive a neoclassical realist perspective. The key goal of the thesis is to determine, whether contemporary streams of the realist international relations tradition can provide plausible explanation of great powers relations. The research is also embedded in the fourth great debate, which entered the international relations discipline during the course of 80's, and as such it tries to reflect current ontological and epistemological debate. Research results then show that realism is still a valid scientific discourse. On the other hand, neoclassical realism's research agenda, as is shown, takes over other theoretical perspectives features.

本論文旨在探討俄羅斯外交政策之動機與推動因素，文中以新古典現實主義做為研究架構，並結合了體系層次因素（自變項）及個體層次的中介變項（如：領導人形象和戰略文化）。本論文所探討之時間軸橫跨1991至2014年，重點著重於以下兩研究案例：2008年南奧塞提亞戰爭及2014年克里米亞危機。針對此兩研究案例，作者使用「過程追蹤」和「歷史敘事」的研究方法，以驗證體系與個體層次因素對於俄羅斯外交政策的影響。 分析結果印證了新古典現實主義的主要假設：俄羅斯在相對物質權力提升的情況下，會同樣地擴大外交政策行動上的野心與版圖。雖然由第一個研究案例可得知，所謂的體系修正因素（如：地理位置、限制/允許因素、和體系明確性）對於俄羅斯介入喬治亞的決策有著重要的影響。而第二個假設提到，「總統普丁選擇設計、校正、調整策略上的選擇，反映文化上可接受的偏好，以維持國內的政治支持度」這個說法也已經被印證。本研究分析顯示，體系因素和個體層次中介變項對於2008年介入喬治亞及2014年併吞克里米亞的決策皆有影響。整體而言，當分析一個國家的外交政策時，新古典現實主義確實是個強而有力的架構，但作者也深知仍有進一步研究的必要。 / This thesis aims at contributing to the debate on the motives and drivers of Russian foreign policy. It uses neoclassical realism as an enhanced research framework which combines systemic stimuli (independent variable) and unit-level intervening variables such as leader images and strategic culture. The work investigates the period from 1991 to 2014 with focus on two case studies, namely the Russo-Georgian war in 2008 and the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation in 2014. This two case studies use process-tracing method and historiography to test the effect of systemic and unit level factors on the Russian foreign policy. The analysis has confirmed the main neoclassical realist expectation that an increase in the relative material power of the Russian Federation will lead to a corresponding expansion in the ambition and scope of Russian foreign policy activity. Although, especially the first case study showed, that the so called systemic modifiers, such as geography, restrictiveness/permissiveness and systemic clarity had significant effect on the decision to intervene in Georgia. The second hypothesis stating that, “President Putin chooses to frame, adjust, and modify strategic choices to reflect culturally acceptable preferences to maintain domestic political support” was also confirmed. The analysis has shown that both systemic stimuli and unit level intervening variables influenced the final decision to intervene in Georgia in 2008, and to annex Crimea in 2014. Overall, neoclassical realism proved to be enhanced and a useful framework for analyzing foreign policy of a state. But the author is fully aware that a further research is needed.

Avec l’échec des négociations entre les États-Unis et la Corée du Nord, menées depuis le début des années 1990, sur la question du nucléaire, le problème est devenu graduellement l’affaire des pays voisins, tous soucieux de l’avenir de la région du sud-est asiatique. Présentée comme le seul allié de la Corée du Nord, la China a été invitée à participer à des négociations à trois, à quatre (1997-1998), et à six (2003-2007), dans l’espoir de faire entendre raison au régime isolé, mais jusqu’à maintenant, aucune des tentatives n’est parvenue à satisfaire chacun des membres à la table. Alors que la tension monte et que la politique américaine se fait de moins en moins flexible, la Chine quant à elle, continue d’encourager le retour des négociations à six (Six-Party Talks) dans l’optique de dénucléariser la péninsule coréenne, tout en travaillant à maintenir ses liens avec la Corée du Nord. Le fil conducteur de cette présente recherche est d’abord d’essayer de comprendre pourquoi la Chine continue de soutenir la Corée du Nord, fournissant dons alimentaires et financiers. L’idée est donc d’analyser, selon les principes du réalisme néoclassique, la politique étrangère de la Chine. L’hypothèse principale de cette théorie renvoie à l’idée que la distribution du pouvoir dans le système international influence la politique étrangère des États, mais que des variables au niveau de l’état et/ou de l’individu interviennent dans la formulation et l’application de celle-ci. Il est proposé ici que le lien entre l’unipolarité du système international et la politique nord-coréenne de la Chine, est façonné par des variables intermédiaires telles que : a) la perception des leaders de la distribution du pouvoir et de leur place dans le système international; b) l’idéologie du régime politique, et; c) le type d’unité responsable de la prise de décision en politique étrangère. L’analyse de chacune des variables permettra de faire la lumière sur les intérêts politiques et économiques de la Chine dans l’entretien de cette relation avec la Corée du Nord. / Since the bilateral negotiations between the United States and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) on the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula failed to produce any effective outcome in the 1990s, China was brought to the table and agreed to play its part as a mediator in the Four Party Talks (1997-1998) between both Koreas and the United States, as well as in the Six-Party Talks (2003-2007), with the addition of Russia and Japan as negotiators. While the American policies toward the DPRK have taken a tough and inflexible turn with former President George W. Bush declaring, at the end of January 2002, that North Korea, Iran, and Iraq “constitute an axis of evil arming to threaten the peace of the world”, China’s DPRK policy, however, reflects long-lasting terms of friendship and collaboration between the two countries. With concerns mounting over the aggressive policies of the North Korean regime and its determination to keep its nuclear arsenal, the question is: why does China insist on preserving its good ties with its neighbour, even when those policies are said to hinder its political and economical interests? To address this question, the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism will be tested within a three-level – systemic, state, and individual level – analysis, with consideration of the propositions that the relative distribution of power shapes China’s North Korea policy, and intervening variables at the state and individual levels are filtering the systemic pressures and thus, shaping decisions related to North Korea. These variables include: a) leadership’s perception of power; b) regime type and ideology, and; c) type of foreign policy decision-making unit. This in-depth analysis will then provide grounds in defining China’s core interests in backing up the secluded regime.

Avec l’échec des négociations entre les États-Unis et la Corée du Nord, menées depuis le début des années 1990, sur la question du nucléaire, le problème est devenu graduellement l’affaire des pays voisins, tous soucieux de l’avenir de la région du sud-est asiatique. Présentée comme le seul allié de la Corée du Nord, la China a été invitée à participer à des négociations à trois, à quatre (1997-1998), et à six (2003-2007), dans l’espoir de faire entendre raison au régime isolé, mais jusqu’à maintenant, aucune des tentatives n’est parvenue à satisfaire chacun des membres à la table. Alors que la tension monte et que la politique américaine se fait de moins en moins flexible, la Chine quant à elle, continue d’encourager le retour des négociations à six (Six-Party Talks) dans l’optique de dénucléariser la péninsule coréenne, tout en travaillant à maintenir ses liens avec la Corée du Nord. Le fil conducteur de cette présente recherche est d’abord d’essayer de comprendre pourquoi la Chine continue de soutenir la Corée du Nord, fournissant dons alimentaires et financiers. L’idée est donc d’analyser, selon les principes du réalisme néoclassique, la politique étrangère de la Chine. L’hypothèse principale de cette théorie renvoie à l’idée que la distribution du pouvoir dans le système international influence la politique étrangère des États, mais que des variables au niveau de l’état et/ou de l’individu interviennent dans la formulation et l’application de celle-ci. Il est proposé ici que le lien entre l’unipolarité du système international et la politique nord-coréenne de la Chine, est façonné par des variables intermédiaires telles que : a) la perception des leaders de la distribution du pouvoir et de leur place dans le système international; b) l’idéologie du régime politique, et; c) le type d’unité responsable de la prise de décision en politique étrangère. L’analyse de chacune des variables permettra de faire la lumière sur les intérêts politiques et économiques de la Chine dans l’entretien de cette relation avec la Corée du Nord. / Since the bilateral negotiations between the United States and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) on the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula failed to produce any effective outcome in the 1990s, China was brought to the table and agreed to play its part as a mediator in the Four Party Talks (1997-1998) between both Koreas and the United States, as well as in the Six-Party Talks (2003-2007), with the addition of Russia and Japan as negotiators. While the American policies toward the DPRK have taken a tough and inflexible turn with former President George W. Bush declaring, at the end of January 2002, that North Korea, Iran, and Iraq “constitute an axis of evil arming to threaten the peace of the world”, China’s DPRK policy, however, reflects long-lasting terms of friendship and collaboration between the two countries. With concerns mounting over the aggressive policies of the North Korean regime and its determination to keep its nuclear arsenal, the question is: why does China insist on preserving its good ties with its neighbour, even when those policies are said to hinder its political and economical interests? To address this question, the theoretical framework of neoclassical realism will be tested within a three-level – systemic, state, and individual level – analysis, with consideration of the propositions that the relative distribution of power shapes China’s North Korea policy, and intervening variables at the state and individual levels are filtering the systemic pressures and thus, shaping decisions related to North Korea. These variables include: a) leadership’s perception of power; b) regime type and ideology, and; c) type of foreign policy decision-making unit. This in-depth analysis will then provide grounds in defining China’s core interests in backing up the secluded regime.

Submitted by Patrick Sales (patrick_laser@yahoo.com.br) on 2015-12-18T18:01:09Z No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação patrick sales versão deposito.pdf: 1192037 bytes, checksum: 1e8db5024665664af6fc9e5263ffc78a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2015-12-18T19:28:51Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação patrick sales versão deposito.pdf: 1192037 bytes, checksum: 1e8db5024665664af6fc9e5263ffc78a (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-12-21T18:15:25Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação patrick sales versão deposito.pdf: 1192037 bytes, checksum: 1e8db5024665664af6fc9e5263ffc78a (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-12-21T18:15:40Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 dissertação patrick sales versão deposito.pdf: 1192037 bytes, checksum: 1e8db5024665664af6fc9e5263ffc78a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-11-26 / A modernização da Marinha do Brasil se faz necessária em face de fatores relacionados à obsolescência dos meios, incremento tecnológico e outros incentivos de ordem doméstica e internacional. No caso brasileiro, apesar de haverem diversos programas de reaparelhamento desde a proclamação da república, os programas de maior envergadura e que geraram resultados importantes ocorreram em 1910, 1977 e 2007. O Reaparelhamento da Marinha do Brasil responde principalmente a incentivos de ordem sistêmica e doméstica. A sua efetividade é o principal objetivo de um programa de incremento material, e muito mais do que orientação à defesa da pátria, os objetivos expressos na grande estratégia de um país devem preceder a decisão de repotencialização da Força. O trabalho utiliza a metodologia histórico comparativa, por meio do método denominado Process Tracing. Essa incipiente metodologia permite verificar as evidências ao longo de processos e verificar a hierarquização de cada fator por meio de testes empíricos baseados na minuciosa descrição histórica dos casos. As teorias realistas buscam explicações para o comportamento dos países em relação ao Sistema Internacional. O ambiente anárquico em que se encontram os países definem suas preferências, mas o aspecto doméstico responde fortemente a esses incentivos sistêmicos e justifica as diferentes conduções de políticas externas em ambiente similar. A teoria neoclássica considera os fatores domésticos como intervenientes neste processo. Por meio do modelo desenvolvido por Schweller (2006), este trabalho verificou que o aspecto sistêmico é determinante para o reaparelhamento da Marinha, e no âmbito doméstico o consenso e coesão das elites são necessárias, entretanto a coesão social passou de coadjuvante a uma das condições necessárias a partir do início do século XXI no processo de reaparelhamento. / The Brazilian Navy’s modernization is needed in the face of factors related to obsolescence, technological advances and other domestic and international incentives. In Brazil, although there are several refit programs since beginning of Republic, the biggest programs and whose generated important results occurred in: 1910, 1977 and 2007. The Modernization of the Brazilian Navy responds mainly to systemic and domestic incentive. Its effectiveness is the main goal of a material increase program, and more than orientation to country’s defense, the objectives expressed in the grand strategy should precede the Armed Forces re-powering decision The paper uses historical comparative method, using the method called Process Tracing. This incipient methodology for verifying the evidence over processes and verify each factor’s hierarchy through empirical tests based on thorough historical description of cases. Realistic theories seek explanations for countries’ behavior on International System. The anarchic environment in which they are, define their preferences, but the domestic aspect responds strongly to these systemic incentives and justifies the different conduction of foreign policies in a similar environment. The neoclassical theory considers the domestic factors as stakeholders in this process. Through the model developed by Schweller (2006), this study found that the systemic aspect is crucial to the reequipping of the Navy, and domestic consensus and cohesion of the elites are necessary, however social cohesion went from supporting one of the conditions necessary from the beginning of the XXI century in the repowering process.

本研究では李登輝政権以降の台湾における対外経済政策の変化メカニズムを検討した。構造レベルからの入力である米国の台湾政策と台湾企業は、台湾政府に対して対中投資規制の緩和と直航便の開設を求めてきた。これに対して台湾政府は、強固な抵抗・不安定な抵抗・構造への順応という3つの反応をしてきた。これを決定付けるのは、政権基盤の強弱・政権の重心・政権基盤の強化策というユニットレベルの3つの変数であることを明らかにした。 / This study examines the mechanism of changing foreign economic policy of Taiwan. The U.S. Taiwan policy and Taiwanese businesses, which were the inputs from the structure level, had demanded Taiwanese government to ease restrictions regarding investment to PRC and to introduce direct cross-strait link. Taiwanese government's reactions can be divided into three, which are 'Strict Resistance,' 'Partial Resistance,' and 'Accommodation to Structure.' This study shows that 'Strangeness of Administration's Political Power Base,' 'Administration's Direction,' and 'Way of Enforcing Administration's Political Power Base,' which are unit level variables, had determined which reaction the government would take. / 博士(政治学) / Doctor of Political Science / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University

現實主義的理論特色在於偏好以權力的角度理解國際政治（特別是國家的行為）並且認為在一個處處充滿衝突的無政府狀態體系中，國家是最主要的分析單元。惟類此觀點不僅是一般研究者對於現實主義的誤認，更是現實主義對自我認知的不完備。雖然現實主義將法律或規範置於權力的概念之下，認為國際法只是國家可有可無的一項工具，但事實上國際法律規範與權力卻經常彼此相互影響。 本論文之目的並非要否定現實主義，而是欲對之進行修正及反省。由國際秩序此項議題作為起點，作者處理了下列幾個問題：首先，在國家所組成的國際社中，現實主義維持秩序的策略及其效果為何？其次，若此方法不具成效或有所疏漏，吾人是否有其它的選項可供作為維持國間家往來關係穩定與和平的方法？藉由探索國家創建國際法律規範的原因以及國際法的法源等諸問題，吾人發現國際法律規範之創立往往並沒有一套如同國內法那般正式且專責的機制，但被國家承認為規範或被接受為法律者的方式（例如：國家間的共識），卻不可反駁地存在於國際社會，在這些形成法律規範的方式中，國家（或其他行為者）可以清楚的認知到規範內容中所要求的義務與責任。 因此，儘管現實主義認為國際法不具重要性，但吾人仍應探就國家為何有時願意遵守法律規範的原因。並且設法釐清在現實主義是項研究典範中不同流派的現實主義理論，對於客觀存在的國際法律規範之評價與認知。基於現實主義並非單一的理論而是為一研究典範，故本文在內容上分別從古典現實主義、結構現實主義（包括守勢與攻勢兩種現實主義）、新古典現實主義，以及較為一般人忽略的英國學派等現實主義理論的派別中去探討國際法律規範在國際政治中的地位及功能。文中指出，長期以來人們對於現實主義的理解受限於權力政治這樣的標籤，從而視現實主義與國際制度或國際法為水火而不相容！但事實上，採用現實主義理解國際關係，不意謂著就必須對國際法持以否定的態度。毋寧，在現實主義與國際法律規範之間，存在的不是一種絕對的互斥關係。非結構理論型的現實主義，如古典現實主義，對於國際法即是採取正面肯定其功能的態度。 當瞭解現實主義的秩序觀及其維持秩序策略（權力平衡）的疏漏所在之後，本文解釋了國際法律規範形成的原因以及不同流派現實主義理論對於它的評價和觀點。接著，作者就國際政治的變遷情形做了觀察和檢驗，國際政治自冷戰結束後有了鉅幅轉變，雖然體系的本質依舊如昔，即由主權國家所組成的無政府狀態體系；但是體系內部已有了不同以往的發展和變革。舉例來說，全球化現象已經從經濟領域擴展到政治和文化等其它層面，並向傳統的國家主權及其權力提出挑戰。其它諸如民族分離運動、環境生態等問題也對冷戰後的國際政治造成衝擊，這些影響主要體現在：行為體之間高度的互賴性、行為體之間差異性的擴大，以及對國際法律規範的迫切需要。上述事實使得傳統現實主義以國家作為主體的國際政治體系正朝向一個近似中世紀主義的新政治體系在形成。在此體系中，國家將喪失其原本在體系中的優勢主導性地位，而國際法律規範的發展也將相應的有所提升及調整。 事實上，並非所有行為者的行為皆忠實反映現實主義關於國際法無用論的主張。學者布爾即就國際法律規範所具有的三項政治性功能來解釋國際政治與法律規範間的關係：一、幫助國家認同與瞭解在他們彼此間所形成的「社會」事實；二、在國家和其他行為者間定訂一套基本的互動規則；三、裨益國際社會的成員達成進一步的共識與承諾。結論指出，國際法律規範是國際政治中一項不可獲缺的部分，為了克服傳統現實主義及以結構理論為核心的現實主義在解釋上的不足，「國際社會」的概念必須被深入瞭解和應用在現實主義的理論建構中。同時，吾人應投入心力展開對全球性議題的研究，例如：人權與環保，因為在這些領域中，一項現實主義最為核心的思考—國家主權的獨立與完整，將會遭遇到越來越多的挑戰並使國家藉口主權作為脫逸國際法律規範的可能性大為減低。 / The characteristic feature of Realism is its use of the power concept to explain the course of international politics (especially the behavior of state). The primary unit of analysis is the State which is regarded as operating in an anarchical system dominated by conflict. However, both notions above are misunderstood not only by general students, but the partial of Realism itself as well. Although Realism aligns norms or law with power in so far as international law is considered a tool at the disposal of the most powerful. Yet international legal norms and power also frequently do interact actually. This thesis doesn’t mean to deny the value of Realism, instead, tries to modify and introspect its viewpoints. Starting at the issue of international order, there are several tasks having been done: what is the strategy for Realism to keep order in the society of states and how does it work? Then, if the way for keeping order in Realism wasn’t constructive or in vain, do we have other choices to retain the relationship among the states stable and peaceful? By way of finding out why the states created international law and what the sources of international law are, we can think that the making process of international legal norms and norms itself don’t possess one formal mechanism responsible for law creation like the domestic law, but there are recognized and accepted methods by which legal norms or rules came into existence, for example, the consent of states. In those methods the precise content of legal norms can be identified by states (or other actors). Despite, therefore, the realist perspective deems international law to have no significance in its own right but we still have to seek to ascertain why do the States obey international law sometimes, if not always, but at least. And make it clear to know what the appraisal and perception in different schools under the Realism Paradigm. As we have known the Realism is not a single theory but a research paradigm, the author investigated respectively the different schools of Realism; they are Classical Realism, Structural Realism (including Offensive and Defensive Realism), Neoclassical Realism and Realism in English School. As the content points out, people whose stereotype of Realism has been limited to power politics are used to thinking that international institutions (and regimes) or international law is incompatible with the Realism, usually. However, it’s not absolute for us to consider that Realism turns down international law necessarily. For one instance, Realism without using structural concept, like Classical Realism, takes the positive attitude toward the role and the functions of international legal norms. After realizing the Realism’s conception of order and what the flaw of its strategy (Balance of Power) to maintain order is, this thesis then mentioned about the reasons why international law is created, and how different school under the Realism Paradigm evaluates international law. Following up, the author inspected the change in international politics. In the post Cold War era, though the nature of international system is still like what it used to be, a Anarchical system, the different and new phenomena do really happen. Globalization, for instance, is one momentous challenge to the sovereignty of States and their political power. The rest like separatist movements, environmental problems are also influential to international politics. The central issues of those influences are the interdependence among actors, the dissimilarities among actors and the yearning for international legal norms. Under the perceptions like this, the traditional state-centric international system of Realism has been being toward a Neo-Medieval system. In that system, state actors will lose their predominant and leading stand. On the other hand, the development of international legal norms will adjust itself to the new world and become more important. In fact, the behavior of international actors does not seem to bear out the realist assumption of the impotence of international law. Bull, for example, explains the international law-international politics relationship in terms of three political functions fulfilled by international law: to identify the idea of a society of sovereign States, to state the interactive basic rules of coexistence among States and international actors, and to help mobilize compliance with the rules of international society. As the conclusion in this thesis pointed out, international legal norms is one part of international politics. In order to overcome the inadequacies of the traditional and structural realist interpretation, the concept of ‘International Society’ must be dealt and applied explicitly and deeply in constructing theory of Realism. Meanwhile, people should spend more time researching the global issues, such as human rights and environmental protection, because in these sectors, the most core of realist thinking, independence and integrity of sovereignty, will get into plight and encounter more and more challenges, and the possibility for the States to get rid of international legal norms in the name of sovereignty becomes less and less.