Minerals are important natural resources and their development is a historically old, yet new, idea for creating economic prosperity in developing countries. Various researchers have evolved several arguments regarding the impact of mineral resources on development and growth, but they have yet to furnish a practical method of economic evaluation of mineral resources development. This thesis focuses on the economic impact of mineral resource development in a small developing country in the South Pacific Region, namely Fiji. Fiji has expectations and faces challenges in its natural resources development. The Namosi project, a large copper-gold mine development, has been proposed and is under consideration by the Fijian government, who is deliberating on whether mining resources should be developed as a means to add to its prosperity and economic growth or alternatively conserved from the standpoint of the environment and stability. In this study, four significant issues are analyzed viz.: 1) Whether the Namosi mine development project gives a positive net private return. 2) Whether the predicted amount of revenue flowing to the Fijian government from the Namosi mine development exceeds the estimated external cost (in this case, environmental cost) from its development. 3) The impacts of the project on various levels of the Fijian economy, and whether the mine development in Fiji results in an enclave industry; and whether mining has strong or weak backward and forward production linkages with the rest of the Fijian economy. 4) Whether “Dutch disease” will ensue from mining development in Fiji and its level of severity. Regarding issue 1) above, Private Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) is conducted by applying the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method to evaluate the Namosi mining project based on financial projections. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis is conducted in order to allow for possible variations in copper and gold prices. This analysis indicates that given the anticipated metal prices, private returns from this mining development are likely to be positive. Indeed, the current high metal prices would lead to high private returns. Regarding issue 2) above, Social Cost-Benefit Analyses are attempted. Under the given circumstances, the results show that the benefits of the mine project, as a whole for its 29-year life, substantially outweigh the environmental costs of the project to Fiji. However, due to a lack of available data on the economic magnitude of environmental spillovers, only estimates of environmental costs of the Namosi mining development could be made. Regarding issue 3) above, Input-Output model analysis is performed. Fiji’s total output (without production from the Namosi mine) is found to be F$5,529.917 million. It is estimated that the Namosi project will increase the output of Fiji directly by F$465.574 million (which includes the production inducement effect) and will result in an increase of F$543.788 million in overall Fijian output (GDP). This increase will also be followed by an increased output of about F$10-30 million in related industries, such as in the commerce, transport, and insurance sectors. Based on this Input-Output analysis, it is found that Fiji’s mining sector is an export-oriented enclave industry and that the mining industry itself has very little influence on economic activity in other sectors of the economy. Regarding issue 4) above, the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model analysis is applied. Evidence of the likely occurrence of Dutch disease can be detected from output indicators of each industry, consumer prices and exports. Examples of Dutch disease are as follows: a decrease in output of agricultural industries and in export-oriented domestic industries; an increase in consumer prices (inflation); a decrease of exports both in exportable agricultural products and in manufactured products oriented to exports. However, several macro-variables improve, such as employees’ income, trade (exports and imports), tax revenue, tariff revenue, VAT revenue, government account (savings and expenditure) and GDP etc. These results suggest that there could be a major increase in national welfare. Thus, from an economics point of view, it has been found (by comparing gains in Fijian government revenue with potential Fijian environmental costs) that it is very likely that development of the Namosi mine will result in a net social gain to Fiji. These results are based on the application of principles of social cost-benefit analysis and indicate that a Kaldor-Hicks improvement (a potential Pareto improvement) is likely for Fiji as a result of the mining development. This means that from the predicted net revenue gains of the Fijian government from mining, those who suffer environmental losses would be compensated and the government would still have some extra revenue left over. An actual Paretian improvement is also possible.

Univ., Diss.--Bonn, 2002. / Enth. 3 Beitr.

Submitted by EDUARDO JUNQUEIRA (el.junqueira@gmail.com) on 2017-03-16T19:43:11Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEduardoJunqueira.pdf: 5067579 bytes, checksum: 2f2d79aa0d4477ddd1f2d990cee8ff01 (MD5) / Rejected by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br), reason: Eduardo, Por gentileza, somente retirar a página em branco que consta antes da ficha catalográfica. Aguardo. on 2017-03-16T22:27:48Z (GMT) / Submitted by EDUARDO JUNQUEIRA (el.junqueira@gmail.com) on 2017-03-17T13:42:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEduardoJunqueira.pdf: 5067030 bytes, checksum: 86cc2c5bf2a22e77b87b962f8b24b260 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Renata de Souza Nascimento (renata.souza@fgv.br) on 2017-03-17T15:26:39Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEduardoJunqueira.pdf: 5067030 bytes, checksum: 86cc2c5bf2a22e77b87b962f8b24b260 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-17T15:44:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissertacaoEduardoJunqueira.pdf: 5067030 bytes, checksum: 86cc2c5bf2a22e77b87b962f8b24b260 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-14 / This paper aims to understand the economic effect for Brazil and its ability to join Global Value Chains (GVC) when implementing the actions proposed in the Bali package, which intend to increase port efficiency (Trade Facilitations Agreement – TFA). Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE model from GTAP), it was estimated that the actions would bring economic benefits worldwide, including to Brazil. In addition, the agreement would increase the competitiveness across the globe, which in turn would result in a rise of economic integration of regions in GVC, measured by the vertical specialization metric VS and VS1. The major effects to Brazil would come from VS1 metric, mainly because of the increase of manufacturing activities which focus on primary factors such as skilled labor and capital. / Este estudo pretende entender os efeitos que a implementação das ações propostas no acordo de facilitação do comércio de Bali produziriam no desenvolvimento econômico do Brasil e na sua inserção em cadeias globais de valor. Utilizando um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável, foi simulado a implementação do acordo e conclui-se que o mesmo traria benefícios econômicos para todas as regiões estudadas, incluindo o Brasil. Ao mesmo tempo, o acordo aumentaria a competividade global entre as regiões, produzindo uma maior integração econômica mensurada por meio do aumento das métricas de especialização vertical VS e VS1. Os maiores efeitos ao Brasil ocorrem pelo aumento da métrica VS1, direcionados pelo setor de manufatura com foco em trabalho especializado e capital.

La mise en place de l'Euro en 1999 a constitué un événement économique majeur pour les Etats européens. La crise financière de 2007, puis la crise de la dette souveraine en 2010, ont amené à remettre en question la pérennité de la zone Euro, et la capacité de certains de ses membres à respecter leurs engagements vis-à-vis de la monnaie unique. Les mesures d'austérité mises en oeuvre au sein de l'Union Economique et Monétaire dans le contexte actuel de crise peuvent constituer pour certains Etats une tentation supplémentaire pour quitter la monnaie unique et recouvrer leur indépendance monétaire et fiscale. Une sortie de la zone Euro de la Grèce, voire d'autres Etats membres en difficulté (Portugal, Irlande, Italie, et Espagne) n'est aujourd'hui plus un scénario à exclure. Cette thèse se propose de considérer la question du régime monétaire optimal, régime de change flexible ou union monétaire, pour les 17 pays de la zone Euro, dans le cadre des crises financières et de dettes souveraines qui les affectent actuellement. Le premier chapitre est général et vise à démontrer formellement la survenue d'une rupture structurelle due au passage à la monnaie unique en 1999. Il montre qu'une telle rupture s'est bien produite pour les pays de la zone Euro autour de l'année 1992, qui a marqué l'adoption du traité de Maastricht et la mise en place des critères de convergence pour l'adoption de l'Euro. Cette rupture n'est pas partagée par les trois pays européens qui ont préservé leur monnaie (Royaume-Uni, Suède, et Danemark). Le second chapitre constitue le coeur de ce travail. Il présente le modèle de référence utilisé pour mener la comparaison entre les deux régimes monétaires considérés pour la zone Euro. Il s'agit d'un modèle à deux pays intégrant des rigidités financières dans le cadre des transactions interbancaires conclues entre les Etats membres. Le modèle, une fois étalonné pour la zone Euro, suggère que les rigidités financières peuvent jouer un rôle considérable dans la dynamique de ces Etats, les chocs affectant les économies partenaires pouvant contribuer de manière significative à la dynamique nationale. Les simulations numériques préliminaires de crise financières menées sur le modèle ne permettent pas d'apporter de réponse concluante quant aux performances des deux régimes monétaires envisagés, le régime de change flexible semblant amener une stabilité accrue, là où une union monétaire permet une récupération plus rapide suite à la crise initiale. Le dernier chapitre remplit un double objectif. Il propose d'abord un critère de bien-être formel pour l'évaluation des performances respectives des deux régimes considérés. Il développe également un certain nombre d'extensions au modèle de référence, afin d'intégrer la dette souveraine, et les politiques de crédit (Covered Bonds Purchase Programme et Securities Markets Programme) mises en place par la BCE depuis le début de la crise. Les résultats montrent qu'en l'absence de politiques interventionnistes de la part de la Banque Centrale Européenne, une grande majorité des Etats de la zone Euro (15 sur 17) bénéficieraient d'un plus haut niveau de bien-être dans un régime de change flexible. Toutefois, les conclusions s'inversent dans le cadre du Securities Markets Programme, où les Etats membres deviennent alors majoritairement favorables au régime d'union monétaire. Celà suggère que la BCE a un rôle à jouer au sein de l'espace monétaire Européen qui va au-delà de sa fonction première d'instigatrice de la politique monétaire. / The introduction of the Euro currency in 1999 represented a major event for the European economies. The 2007 financial crisis and the subsequent 2010 sovereign debt crisis have led to question the sustainability of the Euro area and the capacity of certain member states to fulfil their commitments with respect to the single currency. The numerous austerity plans implemented within the Economic and Monetary Union in the current context of crisis constitute additional arguments for certain states to leave the single currency and retrieve their fiscal and monetary independences. It is not unconceivable anymore for countries such as Greece, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and Spain (the PIIGS) to envisage exiting the Euro area. This thesis considers the issue of determining the optimal monetary regime  flexible exchange rates or monetary union  for the 17 Eurozone countries, accounting for the current financial and sovereign debt crises. Chapter 1 is general and aims at formally establishing the occurrence of a structural break attributable to the 1999 passage to the single currency. It shows that such a break did take place for Euro area countries around 1992, the year which marked the adoption of the Maastricht Treaty and the settlement of the convergence criteria for the Euro. This break is not shared by the three European States which chose to preserve their own currencies (the United Kingdom, Sweden and Denmark). Chapter 2 constitutes the core of this work. It introduces the benchmark model used to perform the comparison between the two monetary regimes considered for the Euro area. It features a two-country open-economy model integrating financial frictions through cross-border interbank markets. Once calibrated for the Euro area, the model suggests that financial rigidities may play a substantial role in the dynamics of Eurozone economies, with a potentially significant impact of shocks affecting the partner economies over national developments. Preliminary financial crisis simulations run on the model prove inconclusive to assess the performances of the two monetary regimes contemplated. On the one hand, the flexible exchange rate regime results in improved stability, but on the other hand the monetary union typically allows for faster recovery following the initial crisis trigger. The third and final chapter meets a double purpose. It first proposes a formal welfare criteria to assess the respective performances of the two monetary regimes under consideration for the Euro area. It then augments the benchmark model with a number of extensions, so as to integrate sovereign debt and the diverse credit policies (Covered Bonds Purchase Programme and Securities Markets Programme) implemented by the ECB since the beginning of the crisis to the basic framework. The results show that absent credit policies, a vast majority of Euro area members (15 out of 17) would enjoy higher welfare levels under a flexible exchange rate regime. These conclusions nevertheless reverse under the Securities Markets Programme, where a majority of member states then favour the monetary union. This suggests that the ECB has a role to play for the Euro area which goes beyond its primary function of monetary policy maker.

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Luxembourg is one of the most successful financial centers in the world. Initially associated with international syndicated loans, euro-bonds and euro-currency markets, Luxembourg has developed as a center for private banking and is currently the second largest center for the domiciliation of investment funds in the world after the US - with a portfolio equivalent to about sixty times the country’s GDP -, and the first captive reinsurance market in the European Union. As in many other financial centers, the interbank market plays an important role. This partly reflects intra-group operations of foreign banks using their Luxembourg branches and subsidiaries to adjust their liquidity position. More generally, Luxembourg has attracted foreign banks seeking to benefit from its favorable regulatory framework, political stability, language skills of the local workforce and the agglomeration of specialized skills in accounting and legal services.<p><p>The importance of the financial sector in Luxembourg implies that a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with explicit modeling of the financial sector is indispensable in order to properly take into account the interaction between the financial and the real sector in the economy and the interconnectedness between different financial institutional sectors (e.g. commercial banks and investment funds). Explicit modeling of the financial sector also allows for an analysis of how the economy might respond to financial shocks.<p><p>This dissertation contributes to the literature by developing two analytical tools:<p><p>1.\ / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

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Der Austausch von Waren, Dienstleistungen und Arbeitskräften wird im Falle von politischen Konflikten gestört. Im Palästinensisch-Israelischen Konflikt macht die Machtasymmetrie die palästinensische Wirtschaft abhängig von Israels Politik. Obwohl dieser Konflikt wegen seiner Gewalt und seinen politischen Entwicklungen in den Medien viel beachtet wird, wurden politische Optionen in den Bereichen Handel und Arbeitsmärkte und deren Auswirkungen auf die palästinensische Ökonomie bislang wenig untersucht und bewertet. Dies ist das Ziel der vorliegenden Arbeit, die sich auf die Ökonomie des Westjordanlands konzentriert. Diese Arbeit macht vier Beiträge zur Wissenschaft: Der erste ist die Entwicklung der ersten Sozialrechnungsmatrix für das Westjordanland. Der zweite ist die empirische Analyse von Auswirkungen unterschiedlicher Arbeitsmarktbedingungen in Gleichgewichtsmodellen. Der dritte ist die Anwendung einer verschachtelten Nutzen-Funktion, die die Vorteile von linearen Ausgabesystemen und konstanter Elastizität von Substitutionsfunktionen kombiniert. Schließlich hat diese Arbeit wichtige politische Implikationen für die Palästinensischen Autonomiebehörde (PA). In Bezug auf die Arbeitsmärkte wird gezeigt, dass es für die PA sinnvoll ist eine verstärkte palästinensische Beschäftigung in Israel anzustreben. Dabei sollten die negative Auswirkungen von aus Israel zufließendem Arbeitseinkommen („Holländische Krankheit“) gelindert werden. Dies könnte die PA durch Besteuerung von palästinensischer Beschäftigung in Israel und Schaffung von Anreizen zur Erhöhung der internationalen Wettbewerbsfähigkeit erreichen. In Bezug auf den Handel zeigt diese Arbeit, dass das die PA eine liberale, nicht diskriminierende Handelspolitik verfolgen sollte. Da Israel auch in Zukunft wohl der dominierende Handelspartner für das Westjordanland bleiben wird, sollte die PA die freiest mögliche Mobilität von Gütern und Dienstleistung zwischen dem Westjordanland und Israel anstreben. / The movement of goods, services and labour is disrupted when conflicts arise. In the case of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the asymmetry of power between the two parties leaves the Palestinian economy vulnerable to policies implemented by Israel. While this conflict attracts considerable media attention for its violence and political developments, the assessment of the economy-wide implications of trade and labour market policy options on the Palestinian economy is understudied. Exploring these implications is the objective of this thesis, focusing on the West Bank economy. This thesis makes four contributions to science. The first original contribution is the development of the first social accounting matrix for the West Bank. Second, this thesis contributes to the current state of knowledge by assessing empirically the implications of different labour market conditions in general equilibrium models. Third, this thesis contributes to model development by adopting a nested utility function combining the benefits of linear expenditure systems and constant elasticity of substitution functions to depict household preferences. Finally, this thesis has important policy implications for the Palestinian National Authority (PNA). Seen the limited development options in the West Bank, it is interesting for the PNA to seek an increased Palestinian employment in Israel in order to improve the welfare of Palestinian households. Meanwhile, the “Dutch disease” effects of labour income inflow from Israel can be mitigated by collecting a tax on Palestinians employed in Israel and incentivising the private sector to invest and create employment opportunities in the domestic market. With respect to trade, this thesis finds that the West Bank would be better off with a liberal and non-discriminatory trade policy. As Israel will remain the main trade partner for the West Bank, the PNA should seek the freest possible movement of goods and services between the West Bank and Israel.

Agrarmärkte sind oft durch Unsicherheit gekennzeichnet - hervorgerufen vor allem durch Zufallsschwankungen in Angebot und Nachfrage. Das Ziel der vorliegenden Studie besteht darin, die Konsequenzen solcher Unsicherheiten für die Bewertung und Gestaltung der vor einer grundlegenden Neuausrichtung stehenden EU-Milchmarktpolitik zu untersuchen. Zunächst legen empirische Betrachtungen anhand der Zeitreihen verschiedener Marktgrößen nahe, dass Unsicherheit für die Akteure auf dem EU-Milchmarkt tatsächlich ein relevantes Phänomen ist. So sind etwa Preisschwankungen trotz der auf eine Marktstabilisierung ausgerichteten staatlichen Eingriffe zu beobachten. Anhaltspunkte konnten auch zu den Ursachen der Marktunsicherheiten gewonnen werden. Während Angebot und Nachfrage in der EU eine eher stabile Entwicklung aufweisen, neigen die internationalen Milchproduktmärkte zu Fluktuationen. Zur Analyse der Auswirkungen staatlicher Eingriffe auf dem Milchmarkt bei Unsicherheit dient ein stochastisches partielles Marktgleichgewichtsmodell. Das Modell bildet die spezifischen Strukturen des Milchmarkts mit dem Rohmilchangebot, der Milchverarbeitung und der Nachfrage nach den verschiedenen Milchprodukten ab. Zur Integration von Unsicherheit wird die Modellstruktur um stochastische Variablen in den Angebots- und Nachfragefunktionen erweitert. Mit Quotenregelung, Zöllen und Exporterstattungen lassen sich wesentliche Politikinstrumente untersuchen. Gegenstand der Betrachtungen sind mögliche Auswirkungen einer neuen multilateralen Handelsvereinbarung im Rahmen der Welthandelsorganisation (WTO) sowie die Effekte dreier für den Milchmarkt formulierter Politikszenarien. Diese Politikoptionen sind die im Juni 2003 in Luxemburg beschlossene Agrarreform, eine in der Fachöffentlichkeit oft diskutierte Quotenkürzung und eine vollständige Liberalisierung des Milchmarkts samt Quotenabschaffung. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass veränderte Preis- und Mengeneingriffe nicht nur zu Verschiebungen im Niveau von Zielgrößen, wie beispielsweise von Erzeugerpreisen und Erlösen in der EU und auf Drittlandsmärkten führen, sondern ebenso zu veränderten Streuungen. Zusätzliche Einsichten vermitteln die Ergebnisse darüber hinaus bezüglich der Unsicherheit in der Planung der öffentlichen Ausgaben am Milchmarkt und in der Vorhersage der Wohlfahrtseffekte von Politikänderungen. Gegenüber einer deterministischen Betrachtung wird eine Politikanalyse am Milchmarkt unter expliziter Berücksichtigung von Unsicherheit damit komplexer und die Beurteilung von Politikoptionen differenzierter.

L’Analyse du Cycle de Vie (ACV) est une méthode d’évaluation multicritère des impacts environnementaux des biens et services. A ces débuts, l’ACV, dite Attributionnelle (ACVA), s’est attachée à analyser les impacts environnementaux dans des situations statiques pour la réalisation d’études comparatives, la communication environnementale et le développement de produits. De récents développements méthodologiques ont vu l’émergence de l’ACV Conséquentielle (ACVC) qui vise à quantifier les impacts directs et indirects de changements, via les mécanismes de marchés, permettant ainsi l’évaluation de politiques publiques. Cette thèse vise à proposer un cadre méthodologique pour l’évaluation d’instruments de politiques publiques dans le secteur de l’élevage laitier en combinant ACV et modèles économiquesElle s’articule autour de trois axes : i) identification et caractérisation des performances environnementale de technologies de production laitières par ACVA ; ii) adaptation du modèle économique MATSIM-LUCA pour les besoins de la thèse ; iii) évaluation par ACVC des impacts environnementaux de la suppression des quotas laitiers et de l’introduction d’une prime à l’herbe en Europe. Les travaux réalisés fournissent : i) une première proposition méthodologique pour l’évaluation d’instruments de politiques publiques par ACVC dans le secteur de l’élevage et ii) plusieurs pistes d’amélioration nécessaires pour rendre la méthode opérationnelle pour les décideurs publics. / Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is a multicriteria method to assess environmental impacts of goods and services. In its early stages, LCA, known as Attributional (ALCA), was used to assess environmental impacts in a status-quo situation for benchmarking, environmental communication and product development. Recent methodological developments led to Consequential LCA (CLCA), which aims to quantify direct and indirect impacts of changes, through market mechanisms, allowing for public policy assessment. The aim of this Ph.D. thesis is to develop a methodological framework to assess public policy instruments in the livestock sector by combining LCA and economic modellingThis thesis is organized into three axes: i) identification and characterization of environmental performances of dairy production technologies through ALCA; ii) adaptation of MATSIM-LUCA economic model to the needs of the thesis; iii) environmental impact assessment through CLCA of dairy quota removal and implementation of a grass premium in the European Union. This work provides i) initial development of a methodological framework for assessing public policy instruments in the livestock sector and ii) identification of several improvements needed to make the method operational for stakeholders.