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BNPL Probability of Default Modeling Including Macroeconomic Factors: A Supervised Learning ApproachHardin, Patrik, Ingre, Robert January 2021 (has links)
In recent years, the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) consumer credit industry associated with e-commerce has been rapidly emerging as an alternative to credit cards and traditional consumer credit products. In parallel, the regulation IFRS 9 was introduced in 2018 requiring creditors to become more proactive in forecasting their Expected Credit Losses and include the impact of macroeconomic factors. This study evaluates several methods of supervised statistical learning to model the Probability of Default (PD) for BNPL credit contracts. Furthermore, the study analyzes to what extent macroeconomic factors impact the prediction under the requirements in IFRS 9 and was carried out as a case study with the Swedish fintech firm Klarna. The results suggest that XGBoost produces the highest predictive power measured in Precision-Recall and ROC Area Under Curve, with ROC values between 0.80 and 0.91 in three modeled scenarios. Moreover, the inclusion of macroeconomic variables generally improves the Precision-Recall Area Under Curve. Real GDP growth, housing prices, and unemployment rate are frequently among the most important macroeconomic factors. The findings are in line with previous research on similar industries and contribute to the literature on PD modeling in the BNPL industry, where limited previous research was identified. / De senaste åren har Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) snabbt vuxit fram som ett alternativ till kreditkort och traditionella kreditprodukter, i synnerhet inom e-handel. Dessutom introducerades 2018 det nya regelverket IFRS 9, vilket kräver att banker och andra kreditgivare ska bli mer framåtblickande i modelleringen av sina förväntade kreditförluster, samt ta hänsyn till effekter från makroekonomiska faktorer. I denna studie utvärderas flera metoder inom statistisk inlärning för att modellera Probability of Default (PD), sannolikheten att en kreditförlust inträffar, för BNPL-kreditkontrakt. Dessutom analyseras i vilken utsträckning makroekonomiska faktorer påverkar modellernas prediktiva förmågor enligt kraven i IFRS 9. Studien genomfördes som en fallstudie med det svenska fintechföretaget Klarna. Resultaten tyder på att XGBoost har den största prediktionsförmågan mätt i Precision-Recall och ROC Area Under Curve, med ROC-värden mellan 0.80 och 0.91 i tre scenarier. Inkludering av makroekonomiska variabler förbättrar generellt PR-Area Under Curve. Real BNP-tillväxt, bostadspriser och arbetslöshet återfinns frekvent bland de viktigaste makroekonomiska faktorerna. Resultaten är i linje med tidigare forskning inom liknande branscher och bidrar till litteraturen om att modellera PD i BNPL-branschen där begränsad tidigare forskning hittades.
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Döden lockar med färgrika drömmar : Kapitalistisk realism i The Road och Another Now / Death calls with colorful dreams : Capitalist realism in The Road and Another NowEriksson, Peter, Burman, Elliot January 2024 (has links)
I denna uppsats undersöker vi hur kapitalistisk realism, så som formulerat av Mark Fisher, uttrycks i två samtida romaner: The Road (2006) av Cormac McCarthy och Another Now (2021) av Gianis Varoufakis. Vi undersöker även romanernas relation till hopp och använder Ernst Blochs idéer i ämnet. I McCarthys skildring av människan, samhället och tiden, bekräftas kapitalistisk realism genom glorifiering av bland annat irrationalitet, brutal individualism och det "eviga nuet". Hoppet i romanen är av religiös natur. I Another Now, å andra sidan, ifrågasätts kapitalistisk realism, och alternativa synsätt och sociala arrangemang föreslås. Hoppet sammanfaller här med Blochs idé om det begripliga hoppet. / In this paper we examine how capitalist realism, as formulated by Mark Fisher, is expressed in two contemporary novels: The Road (2006) by Cormac McCarthy and Another Now (2021) by Yanis Varoufakis. We also examine how the novels relate to hope, and use Ernst Blochs ideas on the subject. In McCarthy's depiction of humanity, society, and time, capitalist realism is validated through, among other things, the glorification of irrationality, brutal individualism, and the "eternal present". Hope in the novel is of a religious character. In Another Now, however, the same ideology is questioned, and alternative views as well as concrete post-capitalist social arrangements are proposed. Here, hope aligns with Bloch's idea of comprehended hope.
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Benuttingswaarde van die Paradoksale teorie van verandering in gestaltspelterapie met adolessenteDippenaar, Jacoline 30 November 2005 (has links)
Text in Afrikaans / The utilization value of the paradoxical theory of change in Gestalt Play Therapy with adolescents
Adolescents undergo significant changes on physical, emotional, and cognitive levels during this development stage. These changes have a great influence on their self-awareness. Most adolescents experience great problems with who they are and who they should be according to the expectations of others. This causes a never-ending process of efforts to change. Change can only take place if the adolescent is who he is, but not if he tries to be what he is not. The consequence hereof is that change cannot take place in the adolescent, because he should first become aware of who he is. The awareness of who he is leads to change. The paradoxical theory of change is all about being who one is and not about trying to be what others expect one to be. The adolescent should be accompanied to become aware of who he is, by utilization of the paradoxical theory, in order to be able grow and change.
The aim of this study was to explore and describe the utilization value of the paradoxical theory of change in Gestalt Play Therapy with adolescents. In order to achieve this goal, the research process was directed by qualitative research, and triangulation was utilized as a technique for gathering information. Out of the processing and integration of conclusions drawn during the empirical investigation, data could contribute to exploration and description of the assessment of the paradoxical theory of change in Gestalt play therapy with adolescents. The aim of the investigation was therefore achieved, namely the exploration and description of the utilization value of the paradoxical theory of change in Gestalt Play Therapy with adolescents. / Play thearapy / M.Diac.
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Periódicos científicos eletrônicos brasileiros na área da ciência da informação: análise das dinâmicas de acesso e uso / Brazilian Electronic Journals in the Information Science field: Analyzing the dynamics of access and useDias, Guilherme Ataide 06 November 2003 (has links)
Avanços na área da tecnologia de informação proporcionaram mudanças em diversas áreas da atividade humana. A comunicaço cientifica e uma destas áreas. Periódicos científicos, que tradicionalmente utilizam como meio de divulgação a mídia impressa, possuem agora como alternativa a midia eletrônica. Alguns periódicos científicos lançados no final do século XX estão disponíveis exclusivamente no formato eletrônico. Esta tese de Doutorado analisa de forma específica as dinâmicas de acesso e uso dos periódicos científicos eletônicos brasileiros na área da Ciência da Informação. Discutem-se diversos tópicos fundamentais para a compreensão deste assunto. O estudo do acesso dos usuários aos periódicos foi realizado através da análise dos arquivos de log de acesso gerados pelos servidores web onde estão hospedados os periódicos selecionados para a pesquisa. O estudo relacionado ao uso que os usuários fazem dos periódicos foi realizado através da análise de um questionário enviado para os docentes dos programas de pós-graduação em Ciência da Informação, credenciados pela Coordenação de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior CAPES, até a data de 30 de junho de 2001. A pesquisa identifica vários comportamentos dos usários quando do acesso aos periódicos científicos eletrônicos brasileiros, bem como algumas barreiras para uma utilização mais efetiva deste recurso. As conclusões da pesquisa sao relevantes para a elaboraço de novos periódicos cientificos eletrônicos. O prototipo de um sistema de informação eletrônico, voltado para o gerenciamento do processo de elaboração de um periódico científico eletrônico, e apresentado em sugestões para futuras pesquisas. Este protótipo materializa algumas das idéias discutidas ao longo do texto. / Electronic journals, Scientific Communication, Information Science, Information Technology
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Exploring Spaces of Not Knowing : an Artist View / Exploring Spaces of Not Knowing : an Artist ViewEdelholm, Nike January 2018 (has links)
The understanding, I draw from this inquiry has come through a muddy, and complex entangledprocess. I have been re-turning like a "Baradian" earthworm, to experiences of being, in spacesof not-knowing. Digesting the mud, moving it, once more, like worms do, through the body.By doing an agential cut, into two spaces, eventually three strong agents unfold: Risk,Vulnerability, and Trust. Out of this result, an ethical and pedagogical question arise: How totake account of Vulnerability and Trust when encouraging our students to Risk?Entering a space of not knowing is at the foundation of my art practice. When as an arteducator,I went to China to inquire into the educational strategies of Chinese Classical Painting,I found myself thrown into a multitude of spaces of not knowing. This thesis, is an inquiry intohow being in such spaces, perform knowledge. To explore this, I return to the field-notes andvisual material including a report in the form of a visual essay of the study from 2011. I re-turnto this material with new tools and concepts inspired by Karen Barads metaphors of diffractionand earth-worms approach, as well as my artists tools: brush, water colours, ink, and paper;inrtoducing painting as a tool for analysis.As a theoretical approach, I entangle the flat ontology of Deleuze and Guattari, and theonto-epistem-ology of Barad, with the philosophical traditions in China of Buddhism and Dao.From an onto-epistem-ological perspective, I ask the question: "If we know about the worldbecause we are of the world," what knowledge then appear, when we experience our being in theworld as a space of not knowing. In this study, I have found that a space of not knowing performlearning through experiences of Vulnerability, Risk and Trust.The art part of this thesis is connected to Risk as well as to Vulnerability and Trust. Itfeatures a rope hanging from the ceiling to the floor. It is a rope that has been used during severalyears by a Circus artist during performances; hanging high up in the ceiling — demanding focusand presence from him. The installation at Konstfack spring-show 2018 featured the Circus artistrope together with a painting made in the context of Buddhist Vipassana meditation, entanglingmy tactile approach in art, with the text of this thesis.
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時間的共筆-論新聞報導的時間敘事與想像 / On temporality and imagination of news narrative陳安駿 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究自語言的想像和傳承起興,探討新聞報導時間的變化。主採敘事學觀點,輔以語言學相關概念綜論新聞文本時間敘事的特色,並進而論及其時間想像及歷史感。
文本取材自人民日報和聯合報共十一則報導,逐篇進行言說模式及窗口分析,其結果說明新聞報導的歷史感非只憑敘述過去事件,更須著重過去和現在素材的連接,不同的連接形式,即敘事時間次序、頻率、節奏的變化各有其意義,並以指示語及各種資訊狀態縫合文本時間的跳躍和變動。而文本中的可然世界(作者或故事人物的精神活動之敘述)則在時間交錯處編織出可供讀者掌握過去、現在、未來時間的各種想像。 / This study, originated from imagination and inheritance of language, aims at examining features of narrative time. Taken a narratologic perspective with concepts borrowed from linguistics, this research discusses the narrativity in news text and also further explores temporarity and sense of history in news.
A total of 11 news stories selected from the People’s Daily (Beijing) and the United Daily News (Taipei) were then analyzed by using the methods of discourse analysis and window analysis respectively. The results showed that the sense of history in news was more than simple description of the past events. In fact, it (the sense of history) could only be emphasized by connecting materials of both the past and the present.
Further, with different forms of time connection, such as frequency, order, and tempo, news texts could be understood with the use of deixis and information status despite time fluctuation and change.
Finally the possible world delineated in any news text would construct the readers’ imagination and allow them to hold the past, the present and the future all together.
Keywords: time imagination, narrative theory, deixis, information status, discursive structure, here and now
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Benuttingswaarde van die Paradoksale teorie van verandering in gestaltspelterapie met adolessenteDippenaar, Jacoline 30 November 2005 (has links)
Text in Afrikaans / The utilization value of the paradoxical theory of change in Gestalt Play Therapy with adolescents
Adolescents undergo significant changes on physical, emotional, and cognitive levels during this development stage. These changes have a great influence on their self-awareness. Most adolescents experience great problems with who they are and who they should be according to the expectations of others. This causes a never-ending process of efforts to change. Change can only take place if the adolescent is who he is, but not if he tries to be what he is not. The consequence hereof is that change cannot take place in the adolescent, because he should first become aware of who he is. The awareness of who he is leads to change. The paradoxical theory of change is all about being who one is and not about trying to be what others expect one to be. The adolescent should be accompanied to become aware of who he is, by utilization of the paradoxical theory, in order to be able grow and change.
The aim of this study was to explore and describe the utilization value of the paradoxical theory of change in Gestalt Play Therapy with adolescents. In order to achieve this goal, the research process was directed by qualitative research, and triangulation was utilized as a technique for gathering information. Out of the processing and integration of conclusions drawn during the empirical investigation, data could contribute to exploration and description of the assessment of the paradoxical theory of change in Gestalt play therapy with adolescents. The aim of the investigation was therefore achieved, namely the exploration and description of the utilization value of the paradoxical theory of change in Gestalt Play Therapy with adolescents. / Play thearapy / M.Diac.
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The South African Broadcasting Corporation in the age of social mediaLefowa, Lufuno 31 July 2016 (has links)
This is an exploratory study conducted to assess the way in which social media could enhance the experience for audiences of the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) television drama. This study focused on Facebook and Twitter since they are two of the top five social media networks that are popular in the country and which have the potential to offer television more mileage in terms of communicating with its audience and extending its reach.
The guiding theory for this study was uses and gratifications theory. This theory was employed to assist in assessing the opportunities that exist for SABC television drama, as well as to assess the ways in which the audience believe social media could be helpful in interacting with SABC television drama.
The results for this study are interesting in that the majority of respondents believed that having a hashtag on screen during a drama broadcast would help to increase interactivity with the programme, as it could help direct audiences to the correct interactive space for that programme and they would be able to share their ideas and comments on the drama directly with the producers, making feedback immediate. It was interesting to note that the respondents believed that they could interact with SABC television drama for information relating to the story.
The findings suggest that SABC television drama needs to actively adopt social media in its programmes for maximum interaction. There is also the need for an understanding of how they Facebook and Twitter could be embedded in SABC drama. / Communication Science / M.A. (Communication Science)
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Periódicos científicos eletrônicos brasileiros na área da ciência da informação: análise das dinâmicas de acesso e uso / Brazilian Electronic Journals in the Information Science field: Analyzing the dynamics of access and useGuilherme Ataide Dias 06 November 2003 (has links)
Avanços na área da tecnologia de informação proporcionaram mudanças em diversas áreas da atividade humana. A comunicaço cientifica e uma destas áreas. Periódicos científicos, que tradicionalmente utilizam como meio de divulgação a mídia impressa, possuem agora como alternativa a midia eletrônica. Alguns periódicos científicos lançados no final do século XX estão disponíveis exclusivamente no formato eletrônico. Esta tese de Doutorado analisa de forma específica as dinâmicas de acesso e uso dos periódicos científicos eletônicos brasileiros na área da Ciência da Informação. Discutem-se diversos tópicos fundamentais para a compreensão deste assunto. O estudo do acesso dos usuários aos periódicos foi realizado através da análise dos arquivos de log de acesso gerados pelos servidores web onde estão hospedados os periódicos selecionados para a pesquisa. O estudo relacionado ao uso que os usuários fazem dos periódicos foi realizado através da análise de um questionário enviado para os docentes dos programas de pós-graduação em Ciência da Informação, credenciados pela Coordenação de Aperfeicoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior CAPES, até a data de 30 de junho de 2001. A pesquisa identifica vários comportamentos dos usários quando do acesso aos periódicos científicos eletrônicos brasileiros, bem como algumas barreiras para uma utilização mais efetiva deste recurso. As conclusões da pesquisa sao relevantes para a elaboraço de novos periódicos cientificos eletrônicos. O prototipo de um sistema de informação eletrônico, voltado para o gerenciamento do processo de elaboração de um periódico científico eletrônico, e apresentado em sugestões para futuras pesquisas. Este protótipo materializa algumas das idéias discutidas ao longo do texto. / Electronic journals, Scientific Communication, Information Science, Information Technology
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Human Mo-cap System Based on Inertial Measurement Units / Human Mo-cap System Based on Inertial Measurement UnitsGrzybowská, Martina January 2021 (has links)
Cieľom tejto práce je navrhnúť, zhotoviť a implementovať vlastný systém pre zachytávanie pohybu založený na inerciálnych meracích jednotkách. V rámci budovania teoretického základu bolo preskúmaných viacero metód, avšak primárne bola pozornosť venovaná samotnému inerciálnemu snímanu - jeho kladom a nedostatkom, kľúčovým vlastnostiam a jednotlivým komponentom potrebným pre zostrojenie systému na jeho báze. Tento úvodný zber informácií je nasledovaný fázami návrhu, zhotovenia a zhodnotenia, ktoré sa zaoberajú procesom vývoja a testovania daného riešenia. Hlavným prínosom realizácie systému je zostrojenie zariadení pre snímanie pohybu - jedná sa o malé, ľahké, batériovo napájané zariadenia, ktoré sú kompletne bezdrôtové, či už z hľadiska komunikácie s okolitým svetom, alebo vďaka napájaniu kompatibilnému so štandardom Qi.
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