This paper studied the extensive margin (EM) and intensive margin (IM)of liquefied natural gas(LNG) imports in Europe over the period 1996-2015. Two econometric models were used, a prob it estimation for the EM and an OLS for the IM. A time-varying approach was conducted to analyse the stability of the models in the studied time frame. The models were constructed through the application of known determinants of LNG trade as well as new factors that previously was unused in the investigation of LNG trade. The results indicated an overall stable EM, but a highly varying IM over the period. The findings inform that the EM is driven by income, diversification and lower bounds technological development and we found that itis inhibited by pipeline imports, domestic production and higher bounds technological development. The IM is determined by favourable pricing opportunities, lower bounds technological development and the diversification aspect of LNG. IM is negatively affected by domestic natural gas production and the higher bounds of technological development.

Many poor farmers, especially in Africa, have not adopted recent farming innovations to improve their yields. One theory is that poor farmers are risk averse and therefore do not invest in high risk high return innovations and that risk averse farmers will only adopt larger innovations if they experience success with small ones. Risk preferences were measured in two districts in Uganda (Tororo and Kapchorwa) where adoption of agricultural innovations has been slow, and where a program is underway to encourage use of conservation agriculture practices (CAPs) to reduce soil erosion and sequester carbon. An ordered lottery selection was used to measure risk preferences and an ordered probit model was estimated. Thirty five percent of a random sample of 200 farmers in Tororo (and fifty three percent of 200 farmers in Kapchorwa) made lottery choices that implied severe or extreme risk aversion. However there was no indication that risk preferences correlate with willingness to adopt new technologies (such as CAPs). Neither wealth nor previous success with technology adoption were found to correlate with farmers' risk preferences. / Master of Science / CCRA-6 (Economic and Impact Analysis)

Potato farmers in Ecuador rely on chemical inputs to manage pests and optimize yields. IPM techniques are recommended to lower production costs, reduce exposure to pesticides, and improve the long-term sustainability of the agriculture system. We conducted a survey of 109 potato farmers in Carchi, Ecuador that included 30 Farmer Field School (FFS) participants, 28 farmers who had been exposed to FFS-participants, and 51 randomly selected farmers. Using an ordered probit model, the data were analyzed to identify determinants and constraints of adoption. Access to information through FFS was the main determinant of adoption of IPM, followed by field days, pamphlets, and exposure to FFS-participants. The study looked at the relative cost-effectiveness of information dissemination methods and found that field days and pamphlets have strong impacts on adoption considering their low cost of implementation. The only significant household variable was household size, where larger households adopted less IPM. Per capita land holdings were not significant in the model. There is evidence of farmer-to-farmer diffusion from FFS to non-FFS farmers. Further research is necessary to evaluate the nature and quality of information transfer between farmers. The study was limited by the small sample size and non-random selection of farmer respondents. / Master of Science

Yes / Despite a growing literature, the relationship between financing constraints (FC), intellectual property rights (IPR) protection and firm innovation remains unclear within the transitional country context. Drawing on endogenous growth theory and extending the Gorodnichenko and Schnitzer (2013) framework, we hypothesize that in addition to firm-specific factors, country-level variables manifested within FC hamper incremental innovation, albeit in varying degrees due to industry heterogeneity. Secondly, as opposed to previous studies that solely focus on FC affecting firm innovation, we propose that due to resource constraints, firms in transition economies tend to follow an imitational innovation strategy, and therefore, from this perspective, IPR protection can be crucial for firm-level innovation within those economies. Using data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) consisting of information for about 21,960 firms from 27 Eastern European and Central Asian transition countries and employing a two-step probit model with endogenous regressors, we find that adverse effects of FC and IPR on firms' innovation activities are driven from within as well as between industries. Focusing on the differential impacts of FC and IPR protection across industries, we direct potential causal pathways from easing FC and optimal IPR protection to encourage firms' innovation. Based on the findings, while very strict IPR protection is detrimental to firms' product and process innovation in industries with limited resource and skill capabilities, it is nevertheless helpful for research and development (R&D) activities in industries characterised by strong R&D and IP capacities. Our results offer useful insights for policymakers to support incremental innovation as well as boost invention. IPR protection policies require to be customised to the industries and firms, since invariably tight or lax IPR enforcement can be discouraging to both incremental and radical innovation, causing all industries suffering from the same treatment.

殖利率曲線為描述零息債卷的殖利率與其到期日間之關係，一般來說其形狀應為正斜率，而一旦殖利率曲線反轉而呈現負斜率時，許多人將之解讀為未來經濟即將走弱的訊號。本論文主要是以Probit Model呈現期間利差與重貼現率的預測能力，並將結果區分為樣本內與樣本外呈現。實證結果發現，與國外文獻比較起來，台灣殖利率曲線斜率捕捉景氣蕭條的能力遜色許多，可能與兩國在經濟體質或是央行政策執行依據上的不同有關。而相較於殖利率曲線的斜率，重貼現率對於台灣景氣的影響更為明顯，顯示出台灣的經濟深受央行政策影響。而不論是在樣本內或樣本外的結果方面，皆顯示期間利差搭配重貼現率的預測能力會較只有期間利差單一解釋變數時來的好。

O Brasil apresenta elevado déficit de acesso a serviços de saneamento básico. Devido aos impactos positivos desses serviços sobre o desenvolvimento econômico, é de fundamental importância que a universalização do acesso seja alcançada. No entanto, um conjunto de fatores restringe a expansão dos investimentos no setor: ausência de uma política clara, fragmentação de competências, ausência de uma regulação específica, ineficiência de grande parte dos prestadores, forte presença pública no setor, fazendo com que os investimentos sejam inviabilizados pelos limites de endividamento, pelas metas de superávit e pelos contingenciamentos de crédito ao setor público. Nesse contexto, o presente trabalho buscou identificar e avaliar os fatores que restringem a expansão dos investimentos no saneamento básico brasileiro. Inicialmente, foram discutidos os principais problemas institucionais existentes. Após isso, o déficit de acesso domiciliar foi caracterizado, por meio de análises descritivas e de estimações econométricas - método Probit. Constatou-se que esse déficit está intimamente relacionado ao perfil de renda dos consumidores e à existência de economias de escala e de densidade no setor, o que acaba sendo uma forte restrição à expansão dos investimentos. Por último, foi comparado o desempenho dos diferentes tipos de prestadores existentes em relação a diversos aspectos. Os dados sinalizaram que uma maior descentralização e uma maior desestatização poderiam gerar ganhos de eficiência e elevar a cobertura dos serviços. / Brazil presents elevated access deficit to basic sanitation services. Due to the positive impact of these services on economic development, it is fundamentally important that generalized access be achieved. However, a number of factors restrict investment expansion in this area: absence of clear politics, competency fragmentation, absence of specific regulations, inefficiency in great part of services offered, strong public presence in the area, all of which make it unviable because of indebtedness limits, superavit goals and credit contingency to the public sector. Then, within this context, the principal aim of this paper is to identify and evaluate the factors which restrict investment expansion in Brazilian basic sanitation. At first, principal institutional problems were discussed; afterwards domestic deficit access was distinguished by descriptive analyses and econometrics estimates - Probit method. It was verified that this deficit is closely related to the consumers\' income profile - economical scale and density in the sector, which leads to strong restriction in investment expansion. Finally, the performance of the different types of services offered was compared in several aspects. The data indicate that more decentralization and non-state conditions could bring benefits to the efficiency and improve service coverage.

兩岸三地企業為因應國際化之挑戰，因此對海外籌資產生一定之需求，而海外募集資金的管道中，又以美國存託憑證廣受兩岸三地企業之喜愛，因此本研究之主要目的即為了解不同類別之美國存託憑證之優缺點，並研究兩岸三地企業對於發行美國存託憑證不同類別之選擇，是否因不同需求而有不同偏好。 本研究以Probit 模型為研究模型，對1989年至2006年01月兩岸三地企業發行之美國存託憑證作實證分析。以是否募集資金、會計準則之規定、資訊揭露成本等特性為影響變數，以瞭解企業選擇不同美國存託憑證之決策因素。 依研究結果分析與歸納，兩岸三地企業依自己本身不同的企業需求與當地資本市場特性，對發行不同的美國存託憑證，因存託憑證的特性，而有不同之偏好；而其偏好之顯著性主要集中在「資金募集」、「發行新股」及「發行成本」。

El objetivo del trabajo es evaluar el efecto del capital social sobre la pobreza dependiendo de las distintas definiciones de pobreza utilizadas, el tipo de lazo social empleado para aproximar la noción de capital social (fuerte o débil), y ciertas variables de interacción entre capital social y capital humano. Usando datos de panel corto para el Gran Buenos Aires (desde octubre de 2000 hasta mayo de 2002), y controlando por el efecto de ciertas variables regionales, temporales, familiares e individuales, encontramos que los lazos débiles casi nunca son significativos. Por el contrario, parecería existir un efecto umbral sobre la pobreza en el caso de los lazos fuertes. Debido a este efecto asimétrico, sólo los hogares que poseen un alto nivel educativo presentan una relación negativa entre esta variable y la probabilidad de caer en la pobreza. En consecuencia, mientras es apropiada como estrategia de subsistencia, la acumulación de capital social no parece ser un instrumento efectivo para aumentar la movilidad económica ascendente. / The aim of this paper is to analyze the effect of social capital on poverty outcomes depending on alternative poverty definitions, whether strong or weak ties are used as proxy indicators for social capital, and the kind of interaction variables between social capital and human capital. Using a short panel of household for the Great Buenos Aires (from october 2000 to may 2002), and controlling for regional, temporal, family and individual variables, we find that weak ties are almost never significant. On the contrary, a threshold effect on poverty is found for strong ties. Because of this asymmetric effect, only highly educated people enjoy from a negative relation between this variable and the likelihood of poverty. Therefore, while appropriated for subsistence strategies, social capital accumulation does not appear to be a useful mechanism to increase upward income mobility.

nÃo hà / O presente trabalho busca investigar a chance de involuÃÃo financeira dentre os municÃpios cearenses, a partir dos dados contÃbeis de 150 localidades nos perÃodos de 2004, 2008 e 2012. A amostra utilizada compreende 82% do total de municÃpios no estado do Cearà e o mÃtodo utilizado segue um modelo de variÃvel dependente binÃria, com hipÃtese Probit. O modelo economÃtrico proposto considerou variÃveis de autonomia financeira, dependÃncia de transferÃncias, despesas com pessoal e encargos, gastos com educaÃÃo e gastos com saÃde. As estimativas permitem constatar que a chance à significativa de que um novo municÃpio que venha a ser criado possua arrecadaÃÃo inferior à mÃdia, sendo considerado um cenÃrio econÃmico-financeiro desfavorÃvel ao processo de emancipaÃÃo de distritos no estado do CearÃ, haja vista que os municÃpios cearenses sÃo considerados pobres e altamente dependentes de recursos de transferÃncias. / The present work search investigate the chance of financial involution among the Cearenses' municipalities, from accounting data for 150 localities in periods of 2004, 2008 and 2012. The sample comprises 82% of the total number of municipalities in the state of Cearà and the method used follows a binary dependent variable model, with Probit's hypothesis. The econometric model proposed considered variables of financial autonomy, dependence on transfers, personnel expenses and charges, education expenses and health expenses. The estimates leads us to conclude that the chance is significant in that a new municipality that will be created has fundraising less than the average, being considered a economic-financial scenario unfavorable the process of emancipation of districts in the state of CearÃ, there is a view that the Cearenses' municipalities are considered to be poor and highly dependent on features of transfers.

O Brasil apresenta elevado déficit de acesso a serviços de saneamento básico. Devido aos impactos positivos desses serviços sobre o desenvolvimento econômico, é de fundamental importância que a universalização do acesso seja alcançada. No entanto, um conjunto de fatores restringe a expansão dos investimentos no setor: ausência de uma política clara, fragmentação de competências, ausência de uma regulação específica, ineficiência de grande parte dos prestadores, forte presença pública no setor, fazendo com que os investimentos sejam inviabilizados pelos limites de endividamento, pelas metas de superávit e pelos contingenciamentos de crédito ao setor público. Nesse contexto, o presente trabalho buscou identificar e avaliar os fatores que restringem a expansão dos investimentos no saneamento básico brasileiro. Inicialmente, foram discutidos os principais problemas institucionais existentes. Após isso, o déficit de acesso domiciliar foi caracterizado, por meio de análises descritivas e de estimações econométricas - método Probit. Constatou-se que esse déficit está intimamente relacionado ao perfil de renda dos consumidores e à existência de economias de escala e de densidade no setor, o que acaba sendo uma forte restrição à expansão dos investimentos. Por último, foi comparado o desempenho dos diferentes tipos de prestadores existentes em relação a diversos aspectos. Os dados sinalizaram que uma maior descentralização e uma maior desestatização poderiam gerar ganhos de eficiência e elevar a cobertura dos serviços. / Brazil presents elevated access deficit to basic sanitation services. Due to the positive impact of these services on economic development, it is fundamentally important that generalized access be achieved. However, a number of factors restrict investment expansion in this area: absence of clear politics, competency fragmentation, absence of specific regulations, inefficiency in great part of services offered, strong public presence in the area, all of which make it unviable because of indebtedness limits, superavit goals and credit contingency to the public sector. Then, within this context, the principal aim of this paper is to identify and evaluate the factors which restrict investment expansion in Brazilian basic sanitation. At first, principal institutional problems were discussed; afterwards domestic deficit access was distinguished by descriptive analyses and econometrics estimates - Probit method. It was verified that this deficit is closely related to the consumers\' income profile - economical scale and density in the sector, which leads to strong restriction in investment expansion. Finally, the performance of the different types of services offered was compared in several aspects. The data indicate that more decentralization and non-state conditions could bring benefits to the efficiency and improve service coverage.