O trabalho infantil é hoje bastante discutido nas agendas de governo do mundo inteiro. Desde que as primeiras discussões e debates acerca do tema começaram, obteve-se um grande avanço a partir da ratificação da convenção nº. 182 da OIT, que versa sobre as piores formas de trabalho infantil. Cerca de 87% dos Estados membros já ratificaram a Convenção n.º 182, incluindo o Brasil. Em 2010, firmou-se um compromisso, no âmbito da OIT, que estabelece como prioridade a eliminação das piores formas de trabalho infantil até 2016. O objetivo geral desta pesquisa é identificar os determinantes da redução do trabalho infantil no Brasil, especificamente entre os anos 2000 e 2010, tendo como foco o trabalho nas atividades enquadradas na categoria \"piores formas de trabalho infantil\". Buscou-se identificar as características atuais deste tipo de trabalho no que se refere à: características da própria criança, isto é, gênero, cor e idade; características regionais de onde a criança trabalhadora está inserida, abrangendo as cinco grande regiões do Brasil, e características locais, em termos de zona rural e urbana e zona metropolitana e não-metropolitana, entre outras. Dentre os modelos econométricos disponíveis na literatura, optou-se por utilizar o modelo probit. Como variável dependente definiu-se trabalho perigoso. Esta variável assume valor 1 se a criança ou adolescente realiza algum trabalho perigoso e 0 se realiza algum outro tipo de trabalho. Fez-se também uma ampla análise descritiva do trabalho infantil ao longo da década de 2000, inclusive das piores formas de trabalho infantil. Utilizou-se os dados do Censo Demográfico 2000 e do Censo Demográfico 2010. Foram analisadas crianças nas faixas etárias de 10 a 15 anos e adolescentes ou jovens na faixa etária de 16 a 17 anos. A década de 2000 foi de mudanças para o mercado de trabalho infantil. Neste período o trabalho infantil diminui substancialmente, em todas as regiões, porém em algumas mais que em outras. As regiões Norte e Nordeste foram as que apresentaram maiores reduções relativas em casos de trabalho infantil. As regiões Sul e Centro-Oeste são as que proporcionalmente concentram mais casos de trabalho infantil. Um fato importante ocorrido ao longo da década foi que o trabalho infantil passou a ser proporcionalmente maior em zonas urbanas do que em zonas rurais, e neste movimento, os casos de trabalho infantil tenderam a se concentrar mais em regiões metropolitanas. Em geral, os casos de piores formas de trabalho infantil diminuíram ao longo da década. a face da crianças ou jovem que exerce alguma das piores formas de trabalho infantil é negra, feminina e mais próxima dos 16 ou 17 anos de idade. / Child labor is now discussed in government agendas around the world. Since the first discussions and debates on the subject began, great advance has been achieved with the ratification of Convention 182, related to the worst forms of child labor. About 87% of the country members have ratified the Convention 182, including Brazil. In 2010, a commitment was firmed in order to prioritize the elimination of the worst forms of child labor by 2016. The overall aim of this research is to identify the determinants of the reduction of child labor in Brazil, specifically between 2000 and 2010, focusing on the work activities included in the category \" worst forms of child labor \". Efforts were made to identify the current characteristics of child labor in relation to: the child\'s own characteristics, i.e., gender, race and age; regional characteristics where the working children live, covering the five major regions of Brazil, and local characteristics such as rural and urban areas and metropolitan and non- metropolitan areas. Among the econometric models available in the literature, the probit model was chosen. The dependent variable was defined as harzadous work. This variable assumes value 1 if the child works in some dangerous activity and 0 if a child works in some other activity. Furthermore, an extensive descriptive analysis of child labor throughout the 2000s was carried out, including an analysis of the worst forms of child labor. The data used in this work was extracted from the Brazilian Population Census for the years 2000 and 2010. Children were divided in two different age groups, one for those aged 10 to 15 and the other for those aged 16-17. The last decade experienced changes in the child labor market. During this period, child labor decreased substantially in all regions, but more intensively so in some regions. The North and Northeast regions showed the largest relative reductions in cases of child labor. The South and Midwest regions registered proportionately more cases of child labor. An important fact occurred during the decade was that child labor became proportionally greater in urban in comparison with rural areas, and within this movement, child labor cases tended to focus more on metropolitan areas. In general, the worst forms of child labor declined over the decade as well. The face of the child or young person who exercises some of the worst forms of child labor is black , female and closer to 16 or 17 years old.

Esta dissertação analisa os impactos de fatores socioeconômicos e psicossociais sobre a prevalência da depressão no Brasil através de modelos probit e da decomposição de Oaxaca-Blinder aplicados às bases de dados dos suplementos de saúde da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD Saúde) e da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde 2013 (PNS 2013). Neste trabalho, foram usados dois critérios básicos de identificação de indivíduos deprimidos: os que referiram ter recebido o diagnóstico de depressão de algum profissional de saúde e os que obtiveram um escore superior a 4 no teste PHQ-9 (cujas perguntas constam na PNS 2013). Foram obtidos resultados estatisticamente significativos, evidenciando a maior probabilidade da depressão entre mulheres e a relação inversa do transtorno com as variáveis renda domiciliar, desemprego, escolaridade e idade. Fatores como doenças físicas, doenças mentais e deficiências demonstraram uma relação direta com a depressão, embora as quantificações de suas magnitudes tenham sido sensíveis à especificação dos modelos. Também mostraram uma relação direta com o transtorno depressivo variáveis associadas a traumas e estresse emocional (como ter perdido um filho, ter sofrido algum tipo de violência, ter um filho com problemas de saúde, etc.). Outras variáveis como raça e região geográfica apresentaram resultados ambivalentes, também sensíveis às diferentes especificações de modelo. Ainda, variáveis referentes ao mercado de trabalho como o tipo de vínculo empregatício e setor de atividade apresentaram resultados inconclusivos. Por fim, outra conclusão importante foi que o critério de identificação dos indivíduos com depressão é determinante nos resultados. / This dissertation analyses the impacts of socioeconomic and psychosocial factors over the prevalence of depression in Brazil through probit models and the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition applied to the data in Brazilian National Household Survey Health Supplement (PNAD Saúde) and the National Health Survey (PNS 2013). In this dissertation, two basic criteria were used to identify individuals with depression: those who declared to have received a depression diagnosis from a health professional and those who scored more than 4 in the PHQ-9 depression test (whose questions are included in PNS 2013). Statistically significant results were found, showing a higher probability of depression among women and an inverse relationship between the disorder and household income, unemployment, education and age. Factors such as chronic physical diseases, mental illnesses and deficiencies have showed a direct relationship with depression, although the quantification of such effects had a rather high sensitivity to model specification. Also, variables associated with emotional stress (such as having lost a child, being victim of some sort of violence, having a child with health problems) showed a direct relationship with depressive disorder. Other variables such as race and geographic region showed ambivalent results also very sensitive to different model specifications. Furthermore, labor market variables like type of work contract and activity sector show inconclusive results. Finally, another important finding is that the criteria for identifying individuals with depression were determinant for the results and conclusions.

Hierarchical or asymmetrical power relationships among states have long been a focus of scholarly attention (e.g., asymmetrical alliances, trade dependencies). While the "power to hurt" is one expression of power, an alternative approach is to gain and exercise authority, or "rightful rule." One of the major impediments to the study of social concepts such as authority or legitimacy, however, is in their informal or intangible nature. This dissertation uses game theoretic and latent variable approaches to capture informal, social authority relationships, or social hierarchies, among international states and explores the effects of these hierarchies on security and economic behavior. I posit that states adopt one of two social roles--that of a dominant or a subordinate. Each subordinate chooses a degree of autonomy that it is willing to cede to the dominant in exchange for a corresponding degree of protection. Ranging from complete autonomy to complete control, these dyadic bargains make up a social international hierarchy. This hierarchy affects the relationships between each subordinate and the dominant, as well as the relationships among subordinates. In the security realm, the probability of conflict initiation is inversely related to the degree of subordination. When conflict does occur, dominants are more likely to intervene when the target is located at a higher position in the dominant's social hierarchy than the aggressor state. Economically, the probability that a state enacts illiberal policies is inversely related to its degree of subordination. Moreover, more subordinated states face a lower risk of economic sanction than states located lower in the hierarchy, even for similar illiberal actions. Empirical analysis of states within the US hierarchy (1950-2000) and UK hierarchy (1870-1913) using strategic probit models supports these theoretical predictions.

In USA, despite recent efforts to improve work zone safety, the number of crashes and fatalities at work zones has increased continuously over several past years. For addressing the existing safety problems, a clear understanding of the characteristics of work zone crashes is necessary. This thesis summarized a research study focusing on work zone traffic crash analysis to investigate the characteristics of work zone crashes and to identify the factors contributing to injury severity at work zones. These factors included roadway design, environmental conditions, traffic conditions and vehicle/driver features. Especially, special population groups, which divided into older, middle Age, and young, were inspected. This study was based on history crash data from the Florida State, which were extracted from the Florida CAR (Crash Analysis Reporting) system. Descriptive statistics method was used to find the characteristics of crashes at work zones. After then, an injury severity predict model, using the ordered probit regression technology, was developed to investigate the impacts of various factors on different the injury severity at work zones. From the model, it can be concluded that some factors, including the road section with curve, alcohol/drugs involved, a high speed, angle crash and too young or old drivers are more likely to increase the probability of angle crashes. Based on the magnitudes of the variable coefficients, the factor of maximum posted speed have a great impact to injury severity, which shows restriction to driving speed is principle countermeasure for improving work zone safety.

隨著台灣國際市場的開拓，台灣廠商已漸將生產重心移至海外。當廠商接獲一筆外銷訂單時，在面臨國內外皆有生產地時，如何決定廠商生產區位的配置，是選擇在國內生產、海外生產還是國內外皆有生產？同時，在面對國際經濟情勢變動下，影響廠商區位配置之因素是否會有不同，皆是探討的重點。另外，在文章中，嘗試以理論模型為架構，探討影響廠商生產區位配置之影響因素，作為實證模型設定之依據。 在實證上，將資料依全體、產業及階段來觀察，實證結果如下： (1)從全體來看，影響廠商區位配置之因素為接單來源集中度、產品多樣性、接單旺季、接獲長期訂單、匯率變動、時間及高科技產業。其中高科技產業廠商相較非高科技產業廠商從事國內生產的可能性較大，同時也發現國際成熟的高低並非影響高科技產業廠商生產區位配置之因素。 (2)從兩階段來看(84-86及87-88)，影響廠商生產區位配置之因素，從84-86階段到87-88階段減少了接單比重及國際成熟度，但增加了接獲長期訂單及匯率變動兩項因素。此一結果顯示，面對不同經濟情勢下，廠商生產區位配置之影響因素則有所不同，但在接單集中度、產品多樣性及接單旺季此三項因素，無論在經濟情勢平穩或是波動時，皆是影響廠商區位配置之決定因素。 (3)從高科技產業及傳統產業來看，傳統產業廠商相較高科技產業廠商認為匯率變動此項因素在影響生產區位之配置有顯著性的相關。同時，高科技產業及傳統產業在面臨不同經濟情勢下，影響廠商區位配置之因素也會有所不同。 (4)針對東南亞金融風暴後之民國87年來看，從接單比重觀察，發現面對經濟情勢的不穩定，廠商並不會將重心放在海外，廠商還是會回到熟悉且易於掌握的國內從事生產。同時在這一年中，面對經濟情勢的不穩定，廠商國際成熟度愈高，應變解決的能力愈高，則是廠商從事海外生產優勢條件。

中國在改革開放後，挾廉價勞工、充沛資源及廣大市場並與台灣同文同種的優勢，使許多台商西進投資，如今大陸已成為台灣對外投資的首選區域；而台灣對大陸貿易即使在沒有三通情況下，經由間接貿易對大陸進出口，也占台灣對外貿易主要地位。面對兩岸經貿深化情況，國人憂心會對國內經濟帶來負面效果，產生「產業外移大陸，負債徒留台灣」與「產業空洞化」的疑慮。 基於上述動機，本文透過海外直接投資相關理論，配合產業空洞化之相關指標來建立預期方向，利用經濟部對2006年所編製「製造業對外投資實況調查」之原始問卷資料，並採用 Ordered Probit模型，對於台灣製造業廠商特性、對外投資動機、對外投資地區及廠商產業別，進行廠商國內生產規模與就業人數決定因素之分析。研究發現廠商對中國等非新進國家投資可能產生減少國內投資擴廠及雇用人才的負面效果，但透過下列廠商特性與投資型態將可抵銷負面效果，並降低空洞化之產生。 (一) 對外投資地區：選擇到先進國家投資的台商，較選擇投資在非先進國家的廠商而言，更能夠擴大國內生產規模及提高國內人才雇用。 (二) 廠商特性：台商事業如果獲利與降低國外投資率將傾向於擴張國內生產規模與提高國內就業人數；台商對外投資若生產方式若以水平整合，則傾向於提高國內就業量，卻不傾向於擴大國內生產規模。 (三) 廠商對外投資動機：當廠商對外投資動機為「擴張市場」時，傾向擴大國內生產規模；但對於提高國內人才雇用卻不顯著。當廠商對外投資動機為「節省成本」時，將不傾向於提高國內人才雇用。 (四) 研發總額比：台商國內事業研發金額占國內外研發總額比率越高，越傾向擴大國內生產規模與提高國內就業人數。

廠商對外投資之最終目的是欲獲得最佳之經營績效，在跨入國際市場所考量決定之因素眾多，如對外投資動機、外部網絡、投資地區、投資時機、投資型態、國際化深度、海外研發密集度、技術來源、廠商規模及分工型態等。本研究係利用2006年經濟部統計處「製造業對外投資實況調查」之問卷資料內容，以「最主要海外事業獲利情形」為衡量標準，包括盈餘、虧損、收支平衡三種情況，將其區分盈餘與非盈餘（包含虧損和收支平衡），以Probit模型進行實證分析。經本研究實證發現，就對外投資動機而言，「市場導向」、「勞動力導向」與「外部網絡」皆為影響海外事業經營績效之重要因素。在企業經營資源方面，「投資時機」、「廠商規模」及「國際化深度」為重要影響因素。若以產業環境、技術與分工型態來看，「技術來源」以及「分工型態」等因素亦為重要影響因素。

Depuis les années 50, l'automobile est en France un sujet majeur de débat. Fabuleux moyen de communication pour ses défenseurs, elle est au contraire associée au gaspillage des ressources naturelles par ses détracteurs. Avec 81% des ménages français équipés en 2001, le plébiscite fait à l'automobile est incontestable. <br />Pourtant, les enjeux écologiques, la bonne régulation du trafic routier et notre espace de vie déjà très automobilisé rendent le “tout-automobile” impossible, alors que le “zéro voiture” semble bien utopique. Dans ce contexte, l'urgence est de civiliser les comportements automobiles. Cela nécessite en premier lieu l'analyse des comportements d'équipement et d'usage des agents, qui est l'objet de notre recherche.<br /> A l'aide des données françaises Parc Auto, nous modélisons trois fondamentaux de la motorisation automobile. L'“automobilité” des ménages est tout d'abord analysée avec le modèle d'addiction rationnelle de Becker. Ensuite, leur degré d'équipement est étudié à l'aide d'un modèle Probit ordonné à structure latente autorégressive. Le dernier volet de la thèse traite du choix qualitatif individuel d'acquisition de voitures, avec l'ajustement d'un modèle Probit polytomique. <br /> Tout au long de cette recherche, la dynamique comportementale est examinée afin de mesurer le poids des décisions passées dans les comportements courants d'équipement et d'usage. Nous mesurons aussi l'impact du revenu des agents et du prix des carburants sur leurs comportements automobiles. Par ailleurs, le zonage considéré, qui découpe notamment la région Île-de-France en Paris-centre, petite, et grande couronne, permet de présenter quelques résultats spécifiques aux franciliens.

Despite the recognized importance of the bond rating industry, little academic work has been done to investigate the determinants of the standards these firms employ to assign credit ratings to individual firms. There is an ongoing debate in the literature arguing whether the decline in the percentage of highly rated firms is because rating standards have become more stringent over time or whether the credit quality of firms in the economy has declined. We investigate this question in this dissertation. Our first contribution is to address several empirical problems in prior literature. This study uses a combination of structural models of default and econometric model of ratings to study the determinants of rating standards and, by doing so, overcome the earlier methodological shortcomings. Our second contribution is to test new theory which hypothesizes that the standards of a rating agency are conditional upon the distribution of default risk in the economy at the time. The results are robust no matter which structural models of default we employ. The evidence suggests the standards are relative to the default risk distribution and there has been a secular increase in the stringency in the assignment of ratings over time. A third way we extend the literature is by examining the accuracy of the assignment of ratings. Theoretical models suggest rating agencies have incentives to purposefully add noise to the assignment of ratings. We conduct an empirical analysis of the classification errors using receiver operating characteristic analysis. The results suggest that error rates have decreased at the extreme ends of the rating spectrum (AAA vs. AA and below; B and below vs. BB and above) over time while it has increased in the middle rating categories. This error rate is directly related to the distribution of default risk across firms at any point in time. These findings not only strengthen our result that standards are relative and time varying, but also suggest there is more noise in the assignment of ratings at exactly the time when there is more uncertainty regarding the credit risk of firms in the economy – i.e., during a credit crisis.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of the Business Opportunity Projects (BOPs) that the Swedish Trade Council uses when promoting export for small enterprises. The Business Opportunity Projects have the same type of setup for all offices where the Swedish Trade Council is established and are subsidized by 60 percent from the government. A dataset on firms’ financial state on a ten year basis is used and survey interviews conducted in 2005/06 and 2007/08. From this data three types of methods are used; a calculations on expected values of return; a panel data model and a probit model.The results show that the expected return of one project is around 250 000 SEK and if the project is successful the average return is around 1 000 000 SEK. The governmental return is around 22 times the invested money. The probability of creating business volume directly or indirectly is around 45 percent. It is also shown that the projects have an impact on the export turnover of the participating firms. The effect comes after two years and it increases until four years after the BOP. The interpretation of the exact effect should be made with caution due to estimation issues. The result also indicates that the BOP generates around 1.5 employees on averages.The results show that the participating firms do not have advantage being larger, or being from the middle region of Sweden nor in a specific branch in order to have a successful project. Firms from north part of Sweden that have a slightly smaller chance of having a successful project, if the project is made in Western European offices, the firms have a higher probability to succeed compared to other offices.