This thesis provides a comprehensive ranking of 11 Czech statistical and 4 foreign credit scoring models. The ranking is based on the predictive performance of individual models, as measured by the area under curve, evaluated on a randomly sampled set of 250 training and validation samples. After establishing a baseline comparison, 3 avenues of estimation setup optimization are explored, namely missing value treatment, estimation method and the use of additional non-financial variables. After being optimized, the models are once again ranked based on their predictive performance. Statistical inference is drawn using ANOVA and the Friedman test, along with the corresponding Tukey and Nemeyi pos-hoc tests. In their baseline form, the Czech credit scoring models are found to be outperformed by the foreign benchmark model. Treating the missing values by OLS imputation and estimating the models by probit, significantly is found to significantly improve their predictive performance. In their optimized form, the difference in predictive performance between Czech and foreign credit scoring model is found to be only marginal. JEL Classification G28, G32, G33, G38 Keywords credit scoring, multiple discriminant analysis, logit analysis, probit analysis Author's e-mail 71247263@fsv.cuni.cz Supervisor's e-mail...

本研究的樣本資料來自2006年台灣地區第二次產業創新調查，以及後續追蹤調查所建立的資料庫。主要目的為探討政府資助廠商進行創新活動的政策，對於廠商的附加性程度。 在變數的選擇上，本研究以「在民國97-98年獲得政府資助」作為應變數，而以廠商創新能力、廠商技術來源以及前期（民國93-95年）是否曾獲得政府資助，作為本研究的三構面。本研究的分析分為兩階段，第一階段利用Probit迴歸模型，分析三個構面與政府資助之間的相關性，第二階段則是使用Multi-variate Probit模型，分析廠商在無政府資助情況下，對於其創新活動的因應措施。結合兩階段分析結果，定義出四種典型的情境。 實證結果發現： （1）廠商規模愈大、創新能力愈強、技術來源為自行研發或取得外部知識，具以上特質的廠商，與獲得政府資助具正向關係，且廠商規模對於獲得資助具有顯著正向影響。在無政府資助的情況下，具有以上四種特性的廠商較不會改變其創新活動的行為，因此資助政策之附加性低，屬於情境3：所補非人的情況。 （2）技術來源為購買機器設備則與獲得政府資助具有正向關係，當無政府資助時，會「選擇風險較低的創新活動」。代表政府資助對於此類型廠商具有附加性，屬於情境1：雪中送炭的情況。 （3）委外研發對於獲得政府資助具有顯著負向影響，且當無政府資助時，廠商不會「照原訂計畫進行創新活動」，因此資助政策能為此類廠商帶來較高的附加性，屬於情境4：嗷嗷待「補」的情形。 （4）前期獲得政府資助對於後期獲得政府資助並無顯著正向影響。而廠商在無政府資助時，較可能會改變其創新活動的行為，尤其對「縮小創新活動的資金規模」的選項為顯著正相關，因此政府資助對於此類型廠商存在附加性。 本研究著重於廠商成本面的考量，來詮釋補助政策之附加性，然而若要依此制定政策方向，僅以附加性為依據將顯得不足，為此，本研究最後依據建立的架構與實證模型結果，提出若干後續研究方向的建議。 / The study provides insights into the additionality of government subsidy on firms’ innovation activities. Previous research has focused on the relationship between government funding and private R&D input and output, but no consensus were made. Using a sample of 581 observations in the database of Taiwan Technology Innovation SurveyⅡ, the study contains a two-stage analysis. First, the Probit regression model is used, and the dependent variable is "whether a firm gaining government subsidy in 2008-2009 or not". The explanatory variables include firm size, innovation capacity, technology sources and subsidy history. In the second stage, we used the counterfactual scenario about what could happen if there existed no government-sponsored programs intervention. Firms could choose from four alternatives:1. Abandoning innovative activities. 2. Choosing projects which contain lower risk. 3. Downsizing the scale of capital and 4.Keeping the same project. If firms choose the first one, then the additionality of government subsidy is the highest. If firms choose the second or the third one, then the additionality is in the middle. If firms choose the fourth one, then the additionality is the lowest. In this stage, the Multi-variate Probit model is used. The empirical results show that there is a significant positive correlation between firm size and gaining government subsidy, and a significant negative correlation between outsourcing R&D and gaining government subsidy. In the second stage, we find that subsidy toward the firms which "outsourcing R&D and "purchasing machines" have the highest additionality. Besides, subsidy toward firms which received subsidy in 2004-2006 has median additionality.

Les recherches en sécurité routière suscitent largement l'intérêt des chercheurs. Indépendamment des techniques de modélisation, un facteur important d'imprécision -qui caractérise les études dans ce domaine- concerne le niveau d'agrégation des données. Aujourd'hui, la plupart des autoroutes sont équipées de systèmes permanents de surveillance qui fournissent des données désagrégées. Dans ce contexte, l'objectif de la thèse est d'exploiter les données trafic recueillies en temps réel au moment des accidents, afin d'élargir le champ des travaux précédents et de mettre en évidence un potentiel d'applications innovantes. À cette fin, nous examinons les effets du trafic sur le type d'accident ainsi que sur la gravité subie par les occupants des véhicules, tout en tenant compte des facteurs environnementaux et géométriques. Des modèles Probit sont appliqués aux données de trafic et d'accidents enregistrés pendant quatre années sur le tronc commun aux autoroutes A4 et A86 en Ile-de-France. Les résultats empiriques indiquent que le type d'accident peut être presque exclusivement défini par les conditions de trafic prévalant peu avant son occurrence. En outre, l'augmentation du débit s'avère exercer un effet constamment positif sur la gravité, alors que la vitesse exerce un effet différentiel sur la gravité en fonction des conditions d'écoulement. Nous établissons ensuite un cadre conceptuel pour des applications de gestion des incidents qui s'appuie sur les données trafic recueillies en temps réel. Nous utilisons les résultats de la thèse afin d'explorer des implications qui ont trait à la propension et à la détection des incidents, ainsi qu'à l'amélioration de leur gestion / Research on road safety has been of great interest to engineers and planners for decades. Regardless of modeling techniques, a serious factor of inaccuracy - in most past studies - has been data aggregation. Nowadays, most freeways are equipped with continuous surveillance systems making disaggregate traffic data readily available ; these have been used in few studies. In this context, the main objective of this dissertation is to capitalize highway traffic data collected on a real-time basis at the moment of accident occurrence in order to expand previous road safety work and to highlight potential further applications. To this end, we first examine the effects of various traffic parameters on type of road crash as well as on the injury level sustained by vehicle occupants involved in accidents, while controlling for environmental and geometric factors. Probit models are specified on 4-years of data from the A4-A86 highway section in the Ile-de -France region, France. Empirical findings indicate that crash type can almost exclusively be defined by the prevailing traffic conditions shortly before its occurrence. Increased traffic volume is found to have a consistently positive effect on severity, while speed has a differential effect on severity depending on flow conditions. We then establish a conceptual framework for incident management applications using real-time traffic data on urban freeways. We use dissertation previous findings to explore potential implications towards incident propensity detection and enhanced management

[pt] A modelagem de dados que qualificam as transações de ativos financeiros, tais como, preço, spread de compra e venda, volume e duração, vem despertando o interesse de pesquisadores na área de finanças, levando a um aumento crescente do número de publicações referentes ao tema. As primeiras propostas se limitaram aos modelos de duração. Mais tarde, o impacto da duração sobre a volatilidade instantânea foi analisado. Recentemente, Manganelli (2002) incluiu dados referentes aos volumes transacionados dentro de um modelo vetorial. Neste estudo, nós estendemos o trabalho de Manganelli através da inclusão do spread de compra e venda num modelo vetorial autoregressivo, onde as médias condicionais do spread, volume, duração e volatilidade instantânea são descritas a partir de uma formulação exponencial chamada Exponential Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Model (EMACM). Nesta nova proposta, não se fazem necessárias a adoção de quaisquer restrições nos parâmetros do modelo, o que facilita o procedimento de estimação por máxima verossimilhança e permite a utilização de testes de Razão de Verossimilhança na especificação da forma funcional do modelo (estrutura de interdependência). Em paralelo, a questão de antecipar movimentos nos preços de ativos financeiros é analisada mediante a utilização de um procedimento integrado, no qual, além da modelagem de dados financeiros de alta freqüência, faz-se uso de um modelo probit ordenado contemporâneo. O EMACM é empregado com o objetivo de capturar a dinâmica associada às variáveis e sua função de previsão é utilizada como proxy para a informação contemporânea necessária ao modelo de previsão de preços proposto. / [en] The availability of high frequency financial transaction data - price, spread, volume and duration -has contributed to the growing number of scientific articles on this topic. The first proposals were limited to pure duration models. Later, the impact of duration over instantaneous volatility was analyzed. More recently, Manganelli (2002) included volume into a vector model. In this document, we extended his work by including the bid-ask spread into the analysis through a vector autoregressive model. The conditional means of spread, volume and duration along with the volatility of returns evolve through transaction events based on an exponential formulation we called Exponential Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Model (EMACM). In our proposal, there are no constraints on the parameters of the VAR model. This facilitates the maximum likelihood estimation of the model and allows the use of simple likelihood ratio hypothesis tests to specify the model and obtain some clues about the interdependency structure of the variables. In parallel, the problem of stock price forecasting is faced through an integrated approach in which, besides the modeling of high frequency financial data, a contemporary ordered probit model is used. Here, EMACM captures the dynamic that high frequency variables present, and its forecasting function is taken as a proxy to the contemporaneous information necessary to the pricing model.

Merger reviews are institutionalized and customized analyses of mergers and acquisitions by antitrust authorities which result in approvals or disapprovals of the strategic intents of firms. In view of the wide variety of agents whose lives may be changed by a merger review, the fact that different stakeholders might induce a government intervention on a particular deal, and the central role of antitrust commissioners in this context, the general aim of this thesis is to examine the determinants of merger review decisions, but particularly those related to commissioners\' personal attributes, values and interests. Additionally, some structural and procedural issues contained in the antitrust regulatory sphere as well as control variables related to other perspectives of analysis are included as part of this empirical analysis. To achieve the mentioned general objective and other specific goals, a unique dataset was built that covers a fourteen-year period of competition regulation in Brazil. The sample of this study comprises 30,543 votes by 36 different panel members on 5,091 transactions examined through ordered probit models. This thesis, mainly, reveals that \'political ideology\', \'prior work experience in the public service\' and \'human capital\' of antitrust commissioners, in addition to the size of commissions\' voting panels, affect consistently merger review verdicts. In short, under the PSDB presidential administration, for example, transactions were less challenged in Brazil. Regarding the \'public service experience\', commissioners who have predominant prior job or professional association in Education, Health and Social areas, inversely to \'political ideology\', increase the likelihood of high levels of intervention in private deals. Additionally, commissioners\' accumulated skills and knowledge - the \'human capital\' - also affect positively law enforcement on merger reviews. The implications of this particular contribution to public administration follow the same path of \'public service experience\': if societies do not pressure politicians to improve public service, considering not only a remarkable knowledge in Law or Economics to appoint a commissioner, but having a broader view of individuals\' motivations and claims, interferences between \'concepts, principles and norms\' stated in laws, and law enforcement will continuously occur. The last consistent result shows that the likelihood of the Brazilian authority to impose significant changes to firms decreases the greater the voting panel. Thus, this thesis suggests to antitrust policymakers that wide ranges of minimum and maximum quorum in voting panels must be avoided. To the best knowledge of this thesis author, there is not any past research that found such results. It means a unique contribution to the antitrust and management literatures. / Atos de concentração são processos de análise institucionalizados e customizados de fusões e aquisições, realizados por autoridades antitrustes, que resultam na aprovação ou bloqueio dos intentos estratégicos das firmas. Em vista da grande variadade de agentes cujas vidas podem ser afetadas pelos atos de concentração, do fato de que diferentes agentes podem induzir uma intervenção do governo em uma transação específica e o papel central dos conselheiros antitruste neste contexto, o objetivo geral desta tese é examinar os determinantes das decisões de uma autoridade antitruste sobre atos de concentração, mas particularmente os determinantes relacionados aos atributos pessoais, valores e interesses dos conselheiros. Adicionalmente, alguns fatores contidos na esfera regulatória antitruste são considerados nesta análise empírica. Para que o objetivo geral mencionado e outros específicos sejam alcançados, um banco de dados único foi construído e cobre um período de catorze anos de regulacão no Brasil. A amostra deste estudo, então, contém 30,543 votos de 36 diferentes membros do CADE sobre 5,091 transações. Modelos probit ordenados são usados para a análise dos dados. Esta tese, principalmente, revela que \'ideologia política\', \'experiencia prévia de trabalho no setor público\' e \'capital humano\' dos conselheiros antitruste, somando-se ao tamanho do plenário votante, afetam consistentemente os veriditos de atos de concentração. Em resumo, sob a administração federal do PSDB, por exemplo, as transações foram menos alteradas no Brasil. Quanto à experiencia no serviço público, os conselheiros que tiveram atuação profissional predominante nas áreas de Educação, Saúde e Assistencia Social, inversamente à \'ideologia polítical, aumentam a probabilidade de altos níveis de intervenção estatal em acordos privados. Adicionalmente, habilidades e conhecimento acumulados dos conselheiros, o chamado \'capital humano\', também afetam positivamente o nível de emprego da lei em atos de concentração. As implicações destes achados para a administração pública seguem um mesmo caminho: se a sociedade não pressionar os politicos a aperfeiçoarem o serviço público, considerando-se não somente o notável saber jurídico ou econômico para a nomeação de um conselheiro, mas tendo uma visão mais ampla das motivações e pretensões dos indivíduos, interferências continuarão a existir entre \'conceitos, principios e normas\' anunciados pela lei e a lei aplicada. Por fim, como último resultado consistente, a probabilidade de que a autoridade antitruste Brasileira imponha mudanças significativas às firmas decresce à medida que os conselheiros habilitados para votar são mais numerosos. Portanto, esta tese sugere aos formuladores de políticas que sejam evitados intervalos largos entre o mínimo e o máximo de votantes.

Cette thèse s’inscrit dans la littérature qui analyse les déterminants des performances budgétaires des pays en développement. Nous nous intéressons particulièrement à la question de mobilisation des recettes publiques en raison de l’enjeu que suscite le financement des politiques de développement dont les pays en développement sesont dotés. Certes, nombre d’études se sont intéressées au sujet, mais rares sont les analyses qui abordent les effets des chocs dans la mobilisation des recettes publiques des pays en développement. Or, nombreux sont les pays en développement qui connaissent à fréquence élevée des chocs de grande ampleur. La compréhension du mécanisme de transmission de l’effet de ces chocs est déterminante dans la conduite des politiques budgétaires et dans la projection des politiques de développement des pays en développement. Le caractère capital du sujet de la mobilisation des ressources publiques pour l’économie des pays en développement et la non-Prise en compte parles précédentes études du rôle des chocs dans la conduite de la mobilisation des recettes publiques constituent nos principales motivations pour cette recherche. Ainsi, le chapitre 1 de la thèse analyse les effets des chocs des produits de base sur la mobilisation des recettes publiques des pays d’Afrique subsaharienne. Le deuxième chapitre examine le rôle des chocs des prix des produits de base à l’export comme à l’import dans la conduite des réformes de transition fiscale engagées par les Etats de l’UEMOA. Il revient sur les entraves que posent les chocs exogènes aux possibilités de mobilisation des recettes internes face à la baisse du poids de la fiscalité tarifaire. Le chapitre 3 analyse l’effet des chocs sociopolitiques, notamment celui des guerres civiles ou conflits intra-Étatiques.Enfin, le chapitre 4, prolongement du chapitre 3, porte sur la mobilisation des ressources publiques durant les périodes post-Conflictuelles. Le message central qui se dégage de cette thèse est la nécessité de rigueur des pays en développement dans la gestion des retombées des chocs positifs des produits de base pour faire face aux épisodes de chocs négatifs. Cette rigueur doit être complétée par un soutien extérieur bien adapté à la nature des épisodes de chocs. Concernant le cas des chocs sociopolitiques, l’appui externe doit être non seulement financier mais aussi technique durant les périodes post-Chocs. / This research is in the literature that analyzes the determinants of fiscal performance of developing countries. We are particularly interested in the question of revenue mobilization due to the issue that raises funding for development policies which developing countries have adopted. While many studies have focused on the subject, but few analyzes address the effects of shocks in revenue mobilization in developing countries. However, many developing countries are experiencing large shocks in high frequency. The understanding of the transmission mechanism of the effect of these shocks is crucial in the conduct of fiscal policy and the projection of the development policies of developing countries. The capital character of the mobilization of public resources for the economy of developing countries, and the not taking into account of the role of shocks in the conduct of public revenue mobilization by the previous studies are our main motivations for this research. Thus, the chapter 1 of the thesis analyzes te effects of commodity shocks on revenue mobilization of sub-Saharan Africa. The second chapter examines the role of commodity price shocks in export as in import in the conduct of tax transition reforms initiated by the states of the WAEMU. It highlights the obstacles posed by exogenous shocks to possibilities of domestic revenue mobilization face downward weight of tariff revenue. Chapter 3 analyzes the impact of sociopolitical shocks, especially the civil wars or intra-State conflicts. Finally, Chapter 4, an extension of Chapter 3 focuses on public resource mobilization during post-Conflict periods. The central message that emerges from this research is the need for rigor in developing countries in managing the impact of positive commodity shocks to cope with periods of negative shocks. This rigor must be complemented by external support suited to the nature of the shock episodes. Concerning the case of sociopolitical shocks, external support should not be only financial but also technical during post-Shock periods.

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Submitted by Arthur Moreira Saude (arthur-moreira@hotmail.com) on 2017-04-27T16:03:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Final.pdf: 947767 bytes, checksum: ca50219ab757930a6d88422c06d48234 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2017-04-28T19:14:36Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Final.pdf: 947767 bytes, checksum: ca50219ab757930a6d88422c06d48234 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-02T19:31:50Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Final.pdf: 947767 bytes, checksum: ca50219ab757930a6d88422c06d48234 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-03-31 / This paper aims to create an econometric model capable of anticipating recessions in the United States economy, one year in advance, using not only monetary market variables that are already used by economists, but also capital market variables. Using a data span from 1959 to 2016, it was observed that the yield spread continues to be an explanatory variable with excellent predictive power over recessions. Evidence has also emerged of new variables that have very high statistical significance, and which offer valuable contributions to the regressions. Out-of-sample tests have been conducted which suggest that past recessions would have been predicted with substantially higher accuracy if the proposed Probit model had been used instead of the most widespread model in the economic literature. This accuracy is evident not only in the predictive quality, but also in the reduction of the number of false positives and false negatives in the regression, and in the robustness of the out-of-sample tests. / Este trabalho visa desenvolver um modelo econométrico capaz de antecipar, com um ano de antecedência, recessões na economia dos Estados Unidos, utilizando não só variáveis dos mercados monetários, que já são indicadores antecedentes bastante utilizados por economistas, mas também dos mercados de capitais. Utilizando-se dados de 1959 a 2016, pode-se observar que o spread de juros de longo e curto prazo continua sendo uma variável explicativa com excelente poder preditivo sobre recessões. Também surgiram evidências de novas variáveis que possuem altíssimas significâncias estatísticas, e que oferecem valiosas contribuições para as regressões. Foram conduzidos testes fora da amostra que sugerem que as recessões passadas teriam sido previstas com acurácia substancialmente superior, caso o modelo Probit proposto tivesse sido utilizado no lugar do modelo mais difundido na literatura econômica. Essa acurácia é evidente não só na qualidade preditiva, mas também na redução do número de falsos positivos e falsos negativos da regressão, e na robustez dos testes fora da amostra.

Merger reviews are institutionalized and customized analyses of mergers and acquisitions by antitrust authorities which result in approvals or disapprovals of the strategic intents of firms. In view of the wide variety of agents whose lives may be changed by a merger review, the fact that different stakeholders might induce a government intervention on a particular deal, and the central role of antitrust commissioners in this context, the general aim of this thesis is to examine the determinants of merger review decisions, but particularly those related to commissioners\' personal attributes, values and interests. Additionally, some structural and procedural issues contained in the antitrust regulatory sphere as well as control variables related to other perspectives of analysis are included as part of this empirical analysis. To achieve the mentioned general objective and other specific goals, a unique dataset was built that covers a fourteen-year period of competition regulation in Brazil. The sample of this study comprises 30,543 votes by 36 different panel members on 5,091 transactions examined through ordered probit models. This thesis, mainly, reveals that \'political ideology\', \'prior work experience in the public service\' and \'human capital\' of antitrust commissioners, in addition to the size of commissions\' voting panels, affect consistently merger review verdicts. In short, under the PSDB presidential administration, for example, transactions were less challenged in Brazil. Regarding the \'public service experience\', commissioners who have predominant prior job or professional association in Education, Health and Social areas, inversely to \'political ideology\', increase the likelihood of high levels of intervention in private deals. Additionally, commissioners\' accumulated skills and knowledge - the \'human capital\' - also affect positively law enforcement on merger reviews. The implications of this particular contribution to public administration follow the same path of \'public service experience\': if societies do not pressure politicians to improve public service, considering not only a remarkable knowledge in Law or Economics to appoint a commissioner, but having a broader view of individuals\' motivations and claims, interferences between \'concepts, principles and norms\' stated in laws, and law enforcement will continuously occur. The last consistent result shows that the likelihood of the Brazilian authority to impose significant changes to firms decreases the greater the voting panel. Thus, this thesis suggests to antitrust policymakers that wide ranges of minimum and maximum quorum in voting panels must be avoided. To the best knowledge of this thesis author, there is not any past research that found such results. It means a unique contribution to the antitrust and management literatures. / Atos de concentração são processos de análise institucionalizados e customizados de fusões e aquisições, realizados por autoridades antitrustes, que resultam na aprovação ou bloqueio dos intentos estratégicos das firmas. Em vista da grande variadade de agentes cujas vidas podem ser afetadas pelos atos de concentração, do fato de que diferentes agentes podem induzir uma intervenção do governo em uma transação específica e o papel central dos conselheiros antitruste neste contexto, o objetivo geral desta tese é examinar os determinantes das decisões de uma autoridade antitruste sobre atos de concentração, mas particularmente os determinantes relacionados aos atributos pessoais, valores e interesses dos conselheiros. Adicionalmente, alguns fatores contidos na esfera regulatória antitruste são considerados nesta análise empírica. Para que o objetivo geral mencionado e outros específicos sejam alcançados, um banco de dados único foi construído e cobre um período de catorze anos de regulacão no Brasil. A amostra deste estudo, então, contém 30,543 votos de 36 diferentes membros do CADE sobre 5,091 transações. Modelos probit ordenados são usados para a análise dos dados. Esta tese, principalmente, revela que \'ideologia política\', \'experiencia prévia de trabalho no setor público\' e \'capital humano\' dos conselheiros antitruste, somando-se ao tamanho do plenário votante, afetam consistentemente os veriditos de atos de concentração. Em resumo, sob a administração federal do PSDB, por exemplo, as transações foram menos alteradas no Brasil. Quanto à experiencia no serviço público, os conselheiros que tiveram atuação profissional predominante nas áreas de Educação, Saúde e Assistencia Social, inversamente à \'ideologia polítical, aumentam a probabilidade de altos níveis de intervenção estatal em acordos privados. Adicionalmente, habilidades e conhecimento acumulados dos conselheiros, o chamado \'capital humano\', também afetam positivamente o nível de emprego da lei em atos de concentração. As implicações destes achados para a administração pública seguem um mesmo caminho: se a sociedade não pressionar os politicos a aperfeiçoarem o serviço público, considerando-se não somente o notável saber jurídico ou econômico para a nomeação de um conselheiro, mas tendo uma visão mais ampla das motivações e pretensões dos indivíduos, interferências continuarão a existir entre \'conceitos, principios e normas\' anunciados pela lei e a lei aplicada. Por fim, como último resultado consistente, a probabilidade de que a autoridade antitruste Brasileira imponha mudanças significativas às firmas decresce à medida que os conselheiros habilitados para votar são mais numerosos. Portanto, esta tese sugere aos formuladores de políticas que sejam evitados intervalos largos entre o mínimo e o máximo de votantes.

[EN] Activity-travel scheduling process is the decision process followed by a person since they think about doing an activity or trip for the first time till the moment they execute it, or decide to not execute it. On the other hand, travel behaviour change programs (TBCP) are policy interventions which rely on information, persuasion and motivation strategies, to induce people to reduce their car use by shifting travel mode choices to more sustainable options. Given that trips come from the need of developing activities in different places, it is obvious that travel behaviour change requires variations in decisions taken during activity-travel scheduling process. A two-wave activity scheduling process panel survey was conducted over a two-year period in the city of Valencia. Respondents were usual drivers who were randomly selected regardless their willingness to reduce their car use. The first and the second wave took place during autumn of 2010 and autumn of 2011, respectively. Between both waves, part of respondents participated in TBCP while the rest were included in the control group in order to compare the results. Tobit, Bivariate Probit and Ordered Probit models have been used to study the effects of participation in TBCP on several decisions taken during the activity-travel scheduling process. Results show that participation in TBCP has a significant influence not only in car use, by reducing the proportion of daily time allocated to driving, but also in scheduling and rescheduling decisions. Thus, participants in TBCP are more likely to think about their agendas when scheduling activities and trips, as well as they are stricter when executing them. Results also prove that participation in TBCP does not affect everyone in a similar way. / [ES] Se conoce como proceso de programación y realización de actividades y desplazamientos a la sucesión de decisiones tomadas por una persona desde el momento en el que se piensa por primera vez en una actividad o desplazamiento hasta el momento en el que se lleva a cabo, o por el contrario, decide no realizarse por el motivo que sea. Por otro lado, los programas de cambio de movilidad (PCM) son actuaciones que se apoyan en estrategias de información, persuasión y motivación de los usuarios, y que tienen como objetivo conseguir una reducción del uso del coche, trasladando esa necesidad de desplazamiento hacia modos más sostenibles. Teniendo en cuenta que los desplazamientos se originan por la necesidad de llevar a cabo actividades en lugares diferentes, es evidente que cambios en los hábitos de transporte requieren cambios en las distintas decisiones que se toman durante el proceso de programación y realización de actividades y desplazamientos de la agenda. Durante los años 2010 y 2011 se llevó a cabo en la ciudad de Valencia una encuesta panel de dos oleadas para la que se reclutó a conductores habituales a los que a priori no se les preguntó si estaban dispuestos o no a reducir su uso del vehículo privado. Cada oleada se planteó como una encuesta de programación de actividades y desplazamientos (EPAD). Entre las dos oleadas, parte de los encuestados participaron en unos PCM mientras que el resto formaron un grupo de control con el que comparar los resultados. Se han utilizado modelos Tobit, Probit bivariados y Probit ordenados para estudiar los efectos que ha tenido la participación en dichos PCM sobre distintas decisiones que se toman durante el proceso de programación y realización de actividades y desplazamientos. Los resultados revelan que la participación en los PCM ha influido significativamente no sólo en la decisión de uso del vehículo privado, reduciendo la proporción de tiempo destinado a conducir, sino también en otras decisiones de programación y reprogramación de la agenda, provocando que los participantes en los PCM mediten más su agenda a la hora de programar las actividades y desplazamientos, así como que luego sean más rigurosos a la hora de llevarla a cabo. Los resultados también revelan que la participación en los PCM no afecta a todas las personas de la misma manera. / [CAT] Es coneix com a procés de programació i realització d'activitats i desplaçaments a la successió de decisions preses per una persona des del moment en què es pensa per primera vegada en una activitat o desplaçament fins el moment en què es du a terme, o al contrari, decidix no realitzar-se pel motiu que siga. D'altra banda, els programes de canvi de mobilitat (PCM) són actuacions que es recolzen en estratègies d'informació, persuasió i motivació dels usuaris, i que tenen com a objectiu aconseguir una reducció de l'ús del cotxe, traslladant eixa necessitat de desplaçament cap a modes més sostenibles. Tenint en compte que els desplaçaments s'originen per la necessitat de dur a terme activitats en llocs diferents, és evident que per aconseguir canvis en els hàbits de transport es requerixen canvis en les distintes decisions que es prenen durant el procés de programació i realització d'activitats i desplaçaments de l'agenda. Durant els anys 2010 i 2011 es va dur a terme en la ciutat de València una enquesta panell de dos onades per a la que es va reclutar a conductors habituals als que a priori no se'ls va preguntar si estaven disposats o no a reduir el seu ús del vehicle privat. Cada onada es va plantejar com una enquesta de programació d'activitats i desplaçaments (EPAD) . Entre les dos onades, part dels enquestats van participar en uns PCM mentres que la resta van formar un grup de control amb el qual comparar els resultats. S'han utilitzat models Tobit, Probit bivariats i Probit ordenats per a estudiar els efectes que ha tingut la participació en dites PCM sobre distintes decisions que es prenen durant el procés de programació i realització d'activitats i desplaçaments. Els resultats revelen que la participació en els PCM ha influït significativament no sols en la decisió d'ús del vehicle privat, reduïnt la proporció de temps destinat a conduir, sinó també en altres decisions de programació i reprogramació de l'agenda, provocant que els participants en els PCM mediten més la seua agenda a l'hora de programar les activitats i desplaçaments, així com que després siguen més rigorosos a l'hora de dur-la a terme. Els resultats també revelen que la participació en els PCM no afecta a totes les persones de la mateixa manera. / García Garcés, P. (2015). Estudio de los efectos de los programas de cambio de movilidad en el proceso de programación y realización de actividades y desplazamientos [Tesis doctoral no publicada]. Universitat Politècnica de València. https://doi.org/10.4995/Thesis/10251/57950 / TESIS