The thesis analyses problems of eurozone after the beginning of financial crisis in 2008, which continuously changed into economic and debt crisis. The thesis considers eurozone in aggregate and closer focuses on so called GIIPS (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain) countries. Recent eurozone economic situation is compared to Japanese "lost decade" during 1990s, I seek for parallels and differences. Theoretical part shows approaches by economic schools to causes of cycle and to role of policymakers. Main challenges of fiscal and monetary policy are considered, specifically fiscal policy in time of high public indebtedness, monetary policy in liquidity trap etc. Applicative part considers causes of the economic situation at the beginning, more specifically devoted to balance sheets recession. Key part of the practical part it is analysis of applied fiscal and monetary policy, including helping efforts to financial system. Concluding remarks summarizes key understanding from the thesis, proposals are included and it is considered whether eurozone is going to follow Japanese path since 90's or not. It seems highly probable that eurozone is going to follow Japanese in terms of sluggish economic growth, parallels can be seen in weak impact of monetary policy in liquidity trap, but recommendations to fiscal policy from Japanese experience should be taken into account in very cautious way because of both specifics of eurozone and Japanese economy.

Cette thèse s’intéresse à la comptabilisation de la dette publique sous trois angles distincts et complémentaires. Tout d’abord, nous étudions les normes de comptabilité des retraites publiques. Nous développons une grille théorique d’analyse comparée et diachronique s’appuyant sur un examen des pratiques existantes. Notre analyse met en évidence que les dispositifs existant en Europe sont incompatibles avec le modèle d’épargne individuelle tel que promu par la norme IPSAS 25. Ensuite, nous analysons la relation entre comptabilité de la dette et milieu politique, et en particulier l’hypothèse d’une sous-estimation de la dette en période d’élection. Notre analyse des révisions comptables permet de valider cette hypothèse et indique que les pays en développement sont les plus affectés par cette sous-estimation. Enfin, nous analysons l’impact du caractère sollicité ou non d'une notation sur celle-ci, ainsi que sur l’évaluation de la dette publique par les agences de notation. Notre analyse de Moody’s, Fitch, et S&P indique que les agences favorisent les pays qui sollicitent leur notation par rapport à ceux qui ne la sollicitent pas. / This thesis deals with the accounting of public debt from three distinct and complementary analytical perspectives. First, we study the accounting standards for retirement obligations. We develop a theoretical evaluation grid using a comparative and diachronic analysis based on the review of existing practices. Our analysis highlights that the existing pension schemes in Europe are incompatible with the individual savings model as promoted by the IPSAS 25 norm. Second, we analyze the relationship between debt accounting and the political environment, and test the hypothesis of an underestimation of debt levels around elections. Results allow us to validate our hypothesis and indicate that developing countries are most affected by this underestimation. Third, we examine the impact of the solicitation status of a sovereign rating on the rating itself and on the public debt level assigned by rating agencies. Focusing on Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P, our findings indicate that agencies favor countries soliciting their rating comparing to those who do not solicit them.

Die vorliegende Dissertation befasst sich mit dem Markt für Mittelstandsanleihen, der 2010 in Deutschland etabliert wurde und nur wenige Jahre später, im Zusammenhang mit massiven Anleiheausfällen, zusammengebrochen ist. Ziel der Arbeit ist es zu analysieren, welche Faktoren zum Zusammenbruch des Marktes beigetragen haben könnten, um besser zu verstehen, wie mittelständischen Unternehmen der Zugang zum Kapitalmarkt erleichtert werden kann. Das erste Kapitel analysiert die Entscheidung, sich am Markt für Mittelstandsanleihen zu finanzieren. Verschiedene Theorien versuchen zu erklären, welche Unternehmen sich vorrangig über Banken und welche sich am Kapitalmarkt finanzieren. Entgegen der Theorie haben sich vorwiegend Unternehmen mit schlechterer Kreditwürdigkeit am Markt für Mittelstandsanleihen finanziert. Das zweite Kapitel untersucht, ob der Zugang zum Markt für Mittelstandsanleihen finanzielle Beschränkungen aufheben und so Investitionen anstoßen konnte. Eine alternative Motivation könnte jedoch auch sein, dass Unternehmen sich Geld von gutgläubigen Privatinvestoren geliehen haben, um die Insolvenz zu verschleppen. Emittenten von Mittelstandsanleihen waren zwar finanziell eingeschränkt, investierten jedoch weniger als erwartet. Eine große Anzahl der Emittenten wäre ohne die Mittelstandsanleihe bereits im Jahr der Emission zahlungsunfähig gewesen. Das dritte Kapitel untersucht vor dem Hintergrund der massiven Zahlungsausfälle, ob Investoren in der Lage waren, Unternehmen mit hohem Risiko von solchem mit niedrigerem Risiko zu unterscheiden. Erschwert wurde die korrekte Einschätzung der Risiken durch eine starke Präsenz von Privatinvestoren sowie einer Inflation der Anleiheratings. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass Investoren nicht in der Lage waren, riskante von weniger riskanten Mittelstandsanleihen zu unterscheiden. Dies könnte zum Zusammenbruch des Marktes beigetragen haben, da dieser für hochqualitative Unternehmen letztendlich zu teuer war. / This dissertation explores the German market for SME bonds that was established in 2010 and collapsed soon after, when one third of the listed bonds defaulted. The first paper studies the choice to enter the German MBond market. The results show that MBond issuers in contrast to theoretical predictions and prior empirical findings, have lower credit quality. The second paper examines to the extent to which the main goal of the MBond market, alleviating nancial constraints in order to spur firm investment, has been achieved. Indeed, a major fraction of MBond issuers have been finnancially constrained in the year prior to issuance. However, MBond issuers appear to invest less than expected. The results are more in favor of the alternative explanation that MBond issuers timed the market and exploited a window of opportunity to issue junk bonds to retail investors, in order to nance future losses and avoid or postpone bankruptcy. In the light of the high default rate and the final collapse of the market, the third paper analyzes whether investors were able to distinguish between high and low risk MBonds. Rating in ation in the MBond market could have distorted the information channel, hampering investors' risk assessment of the MBonds. The results indicate that di erences in default risk were not adequately reflected in MBond yield spreads. Thus, it appears that MBond investors were not able to distinguish between high and low quality issuers. As a consequence, the MBond market was relatively more expensive for high quality issuers than it was for their low quality counterparts, which may have contributed to the near-total collapse of the market.

Esta tesis esta compuesta por tres capítulos. Los dos primeros capítulos estudian los efectos macroeconómicos de una consolidación fiscal y estímulos fiscales cuando la deuda privada es elevada. El tercer capítulo, estudia proyecciones de deuda púbica para el caso español bajo diferentes escenarios macroeconómicos. En el primer capítulo se analiza los efectos macroeconómicos de diferentes planes de consolidación fiscal en los que el gobierno reduce de forma gradual la ratio deuda pública-PIB y el sector privado está altamente endeudado. Lo resultados muestran que en el largo plazo, la consolidación fiscal genera beneficios en términos de output que son mayores en el caso en el que el sector público este altamente endeudado. En el corto plazo, la efectividad de la política fiscal en un escenario de deuda alta, depende del instrumento fiscal utilizado. Finalmente se analiza el bienestar social, encontrando que la política de consolidación fiscal produce una ganancia en términos de bienestar cuando el gasto público o el impuesto al consumo se utilizan como instrumento y este bienestar es mayor en el caso de endeudamiento privado alto. Sin embargo, cuando el instrumento fiscal son los impuestos al trabajo o al capital, se produce una pérdida de bienestar que es amplificada en un escenario de endeudamiento alto. En el segundo capítulo, se estudia como el tamaño de los multiplicadores fiscales depende del nivel de endeudamiento privado. Este artículo contribuye al debate de los efectos de los estímulos fiscales demostrando que el impacto de las políticas fiscales depende del nivel de endeudamiento, considerando el endeudamiento de los hogares y empresas. Finalmente, en el tercer capítulo se examina las proyecciones de deuda para la economía española bajo diferentes escenarios macroeconómicos. Se encuentra que la deuda aumentará hasta un 174% en 2035 si se cumple el escenario macroeconómico que predice la Comisión Europea. En el caso de considerar una subida de impuestos, la deuda disminuye pero lejos de llegar a los niveles pre-COVID.

The thesis contains four essays, covering topics in the field of real-time macroeconometrics, forecasting and applied macroeconomics. In the first two chapters, I use recent techniques developed in the "nowcasting" literature in order to analyse and interpret the macroeconomic news flow. I use them either to assess current macroeconomic conditions, showing the importance of foreign indicators dealing with small open economies, or linking macroeconomic news to asset prices, through a model that help us interpret macroeconomic data and explaining the linkages between macro variables and financial indicators. In the third chapter, I analyse the link between macroeconomic data in real-time and the yield curve of interest rates, constructing a forecasting model which takes into account the peculiar characteristics of the macroeconomic data flow. In the last chapter, I present a Bayesian Vector Autoregression model built in order to analyse the last two crisis in the Eurozone (2008-09, and 2011-12) identifying their unique characteristics with respect to historical regularities, an issue of great importance from a policy perspective. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen var att studera förhållandet mellan offentliga skuldregister och hushållens skuldsättningsgrad samt att bidra till att öka kunskapen om den eventuellt förekommande informationsasymmetrin på kreditmarknaden.  Frågeställningar: Vilket samband förekommer mellan hushållens skuldsättningsgrad och införandet av offentliga skuldregister? Vad anser intermediära förmedlare och banker om införandet av ett eventuellt offentligt skuldregister?  Metod: Studien genomfördes med hjälp av triangulering innehållande en kvantitativ och en kvalitativ forskningsansats. Studiens urval bestod av 19 stycken europeiska länder, varav 11 stycken har och 8 stycken har inte offentligt skuldregister. Historisk data från år 1995 till år 2021 har inhämtades från OCED:s webbplats och analyserades med hjälp av Pearsons korrelation och Student t-test. Intervjuer har även genomförts med intermediära förmedlaren UC och Nordax Bank.  Slutsats: Resultaten tyder på att informationsasymmetri föreligger på kreditmarknaden och att delade meningar om fenomenet förekommer. Ett samband som är på gränsen till starkt förekommer mellan hushållens skuldsättningsgrad och införandet av offentliga skuldregister. Intermediära förmedlare har en negativ syn på införandet av offentliga skuldregister medan banker har en positiv inställning till införandet av offentliga skuldregister.  Nyckelord: informationsasymmetri, intermediär information, intermediär förmedlare, moralisk hazard, offentligt skuldregister. / Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to contribute to increasing knowledge about the potential occurrence of information asymmetry in the credit market by studying the relationship between public debt registries and grade of indebtedness for households.  Research questions: What is the relationship between the household’s grade of indebtedness and the implementation of public debt registries? What do intermediary intermediaries and banks think about the potential introduction of a public debt registry?  Method: The study employed a comprehensive approach utilizing triangulation that combined both quantitative and qualitative research methods. The sample comprised 19 European countries, of which 11 had implemented public debt registries while 8 had not. Historical data spanning from 1995 to 2021 was gathered from the OECD website and subjected to analysis using statistical tools such as Pearson's correlation and a Student t-test. Additionally, interviews were conducted with the intermediary UC and Nordax Bank to further enrich the study's findings.  Conclusions: The result indicates the existence of an information asymmetry in the credit market, but there are divergence opinions about the phenomenon. The findings suggest the presence of a nearly significant negative correlation between household debt levels and the introduction of public debt registries. Intermediaries hold a pessimistic view regarding the implementation of public debt registries, while banks exhibit a favorable stance towards their adoption.  Keywords: information asymmetry, intermediary information, intermediary intermediaries, public debt registry.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:48Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Jorge C Siqueira.pdf: 785030 bytes, checksum: 11ecce584ab79026b6028037746e40c4 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2007-05-16 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / ABSTRAT The purpose of this study is to present and discuss the main impacts the indexation profile and the term-structure of the public debt may inflict on the debt´s trajectory. The main result of the study suggests that there may exist a vicious circle stemming from the relationship between the rise of the short-term interest rate of the Brazilian economy and the growing-path behavior of its public debt. It is stated that this movement may be a consequence of the uniqueness of the structure of Brazilian public debt, which is largely composed by short-term securities pegged to the short-term interest rate of the economy (Selic). In order to demonstrate this statement, the approach taken up rests on two models of public debt administration and on the analysis of these models in reference to the behavior of the level and the profile of indexation and term-structure of the public debt between 1995 and 2005. Therefore, our effort seeks to present the workings of this supposed vicious circle and its impacts on the behavior of the Brazilian public debt. In addition, in order to estimate exercises which may, at some length, corroborate the main idea proposed by this study, we make use of some econometric tools, such as Vector auto-regressions models and Vector Erros Corretions / O objetivo desse trabalho é apresentar e discutir os principais impactos que o perfil de indexação e prazo da dívida pública brasileira podem exercer sobre a trajetória da dívida. O principal resultado desse trabalho sugere a existência de um círculo vicioso entre elevações na taxa de juros de curto prazo da economia brasileira e a evolução crescente da dívida pública. Sugere-se que esse movimento possa ser conseqüência da peculiaridade da dívida pública brasileira, que se traduz numa dívida representada em grande parte por títulos de curto prazo e indexados a taxa de juros de curto prazo da economia (Selic). Para isso, utiliza-se uma abordagem que envolve a apresentação de dois modelos de administração de dívida pública e a análise desses modelos em conjunto com a evolução do nível e do perfil de indexação e prazo da dívida pública brasileira durante o período de 1995 - 2005. Dessa maneira, tenta-se apresentar o funcionamento desse suposto círculo vicioso e seus impactos para a evolução da dívida pública brasileira. Ainda utiliza-se o instrumental econométrico dos modelos Vetores auto-regressivos (VAR) e Vetores de Correção de Erros (VEC) para se estimarem exercícios que de certa forma corroboram a principal idéia sugerida nesse trabalho

The local government tax-exempt debt market is a growing, and complex, sector of public finance. As local governments turn to debt financing the factors that contribute to interest costs of that debt have become important considerations for local government officials and politicians. Governance at the local level involves a network of overlapping governments some of which share a tax base. This system of overlapping governments that share a tax base are subject to externalities that arise from taxation, expenditures, and debt. These externalities are usually analyzed in terms of tax or expenditure reactions, but there are implications for local government debt as well. For example, it can be shown that overlapping governments that share a tax base and issue debt can increase the interest costs paid on bonds by a higher level government. Further complicating the debt situation of local governments is the prevalence of a variety of special districts with the authority to issue tax-exempt debt. These special districts may have the authority to issue debt, but little is known about their financing processes. By comparing how different types of government approach the credit rating process this dissertation compares risk assessment of traditional municipalities and special districts. Through this comparison similarities and differences in the credit rating process across types of local governments can be identified. To explore these issues of local government debt several advanced econometric techniques are used to estimate various models.

The thesis analyses several ways to use financial derivatives in public debt management. It mainly focuses on the manager's motives to use derivatives, associated risks and other fundamental aspects, including the known examples of a questionable use of swaps. In the last chapter the thesis also uses historical data to determine whether the use of derivatives can have a positive effect on the Czech republic's interest expenditures.

Esta tese de doutorado estuda os requisitórios: precatórios e requisições de pequeno valor, sob o prisma do Direito Financeiro. Com esse objetivo se estuda o desenvolvimento dos requisitórios e suas regras atuais, tanto em termos de determinações constitucionais, quanto nas questões orçamentárias, da dívida pública e do controle das finanças públicas, questionando também a forma como se dá a execução contra a Fazenda Pública por quantia certa em outros países do mundo. / This doctoral thesis studies, through the prism of Financial Law, the payments of money owed by the Federal Treasury, by State Treasury, by Federal District Treasury, or by Municipal Treasury, by virtue of a court decision (writ of execution against Public Treasury or writ of execution of a small amount of money against Public Treasury). For this purpose we study the development of payments of court decisions and its current rules, both in terms of constitutional provisions, budget issues, public debt and internal and external audit of public money used to pay court decisions, also questioning how this payment is done by Public Treasury in other countries.