This study aims to identify risk factors among young boys that might lead to criminal behavior and actions. The study is based on four books, written by former criminals, a lawyer that has been working with the cold shooting cases in Sweden and two reporters from the exposed areas. By reading the books we could identify similar risk factors among the participants in the books that have got their story told. Since social worker's job is to help prevent criminal behavior among youth and young children by identifying the risk factors, we thought that this study could be helpful. The books produce important knowledge from reality. The study is divided into seven different themes in which risk factors can be found. Those are risk factors related to firearm-related violence, risk factors within the individuals, the families, school, socioeconomic status, substance use and social capital. First the study presents previous scientific studies, in the same seven themes, and then they are put together with the new findings from the books. From this study we can also find that the risk factors are influenced by each other, and that individuals are more likely to have several risk factors if they already have one. Depending on how the individuals identify and manage the risk factors, it is different how much they are affected by it. A risk factor that one individual has, does not have to be a risk factor for another individual. Due to this, social workers have to pay attention to every individual youth and consider their situation regarding risk factors for criminal behavior.

The subject matter of the study is subjective risk picture as a component of risk culture. The object matter of the study is risk as a psychological phenomenon. Graduation qualification work consists of an introduction, three chapters, conclusions, a list of references (80 sources) and applications: forms of applied techniques, examples of dendograms. The volume of the master's thesis is 137 pages, which include 10 figures and 11 tables. The introduction reveals the urgency of the chosen research problem, the level of development of the problem, the purpose and objectives of the study are established, the subject and object of the study is determined, a working hypothesis is formulated, methods, methods and an empirical basis are determined, as well as the research stages. The first chapter includes a review of foreign and domestic literature on the topic of research, the psychological aspects of risk and risk behavior described in the scientific literature and research. The sections devoted to the peculiarities of the phenomenon of risk, the connection of representations at the conscious and unconscious level are presented. Conclusions on the first chapter are the results of studying the theoretical material. The second chapter is devoted to methods and methods of research, includes a description of the general principles of the phenomenological method, psychosemantic approaches in the study of consciousness and personality, as well as a description of questioning techniques. The conclusions of Chapter 2 substantiate the choice of the main methods and techniques for conducting the study. The third chapter is devoted to the empirical part of the study. It includes the characteristics of the procedure of the study, selected methods and results obtained after applying the techniques. As the main tool, the "Semantic differential method" was used, the test questionnaire of A.G. Shmeleva "Study of the propensity to take risks"; test-questionnaire "Self-assessment of propensity to extreme-risk behavior (M. Tsukerman); test-questionnaire "Readiness for risk" (AM Schubert); Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire. The chapter presents the results of a study of factor, cluster, and correlation analysis. The findings of Chapter 3 are the main results of the empirical study. In conclusion, brief results of the theoretical and empirical parts of the work are given, as well as conclusions on the working hypothesis. / Предмет исследования: субъективная картина риска как составляющая рискологической культуры. Объект исследования: риск как психологическое явление. Выпускная квалификационная работа состоит из введения, трех глав, выводов, списка литературы (80 источников) и приложений: бланки прикладных методик, примеры дендограмм. Объем магистерской диссертации составляет 137 страниц, включая 10 рисунков и 11 таблиц. Введение раскрывает актуальность выбранной проблемы исследования, уровень развития проблемы, устанавливаются цель и задачи исследования, определяется предмет и объект исследования, формулируется рабочая гипотеза, определяются методы, методики и эмпирическая база, а также этапы исследования. Первая глава включает обзор зарубежной и отечественной литературы по теме исследования, психологические аспекты риска и рискованного поведения, описанные в научной литературе и исследованиях. Представлены разделы, посвященные особенности феномена риска, связи представлений на осознанном и бессознательном уровне. В выводах по первой главе представлены результаты изучения теоретического материала. Вторая глава посвящена методам и методикам исследования, включает в себя описание общих принципов феноменологического метода, психосемантических подходов в исследовании сознания и личности, а также описание опросных методик. Выводы по 2 главе обосновывают выбор основных методов и методик для проведения исследования. Третья глава посвящена эмпирической части исследования. Она, включает в себя характеристику процедуры исследования, выбранные методики и результаты, полученные после применения методик. В качестве основного инструментария был использован «Метод семантического дифференциала», тест-опросник А.Г. Шмелева «Исследование склонности к риску»; тест-опросник «Самооценки склонности к экстремально-рискованному поведению (М.Цукерман); тест-опросник «Готовность к риску» (А.М. Шуберта); Мельбурнский опросник принятия решений. В главе представлены результаты исследования факторного, кластерного и корреляционного анализа. Выводы главы 3 являются основными результатами эмпирического исследования. В заключении приведены краткие результаты теоретической и эмпирической частей работы, а также выводы относительно рабочей гипотезы.

We develop a risk factor model based on data from a large number of portfolios spanning multiple asset classes. The risk factors are selected based on economic theory through an analysis of the asset holdings, as well as statistical tests. As many assets have limited historical data available, we implement and analyse the impact of regularisation to handle sparsity. Based on the factor model, two parametric methods for calculating Value-at-Risk (VaR) for a portfolio are developed: one with constant volatility and one with a CCC-GARCH volatility updating scheme. These methods are evaluated through backtesting on daily and weekly returns of a selected set of portfolios whose contents reflect the larger majority well. A historical data approach for calculating VaR serves as a benchmark model. We find that under daily returns, the historical data method outperforms the factor models in terms of VaR violation rates. None yield independent violations however. Under weekly returns, both factor models produce more accurate violation rates than the historical data model, with the CCC-GARCH model also yielding independent VaR violations for almost all portfolios due to its ability to adjust up VaR estimates in periods of increased market volatility. We conclude that if weekly VaR estimates are acceptable, tailored risk factor models provide accurate measures of portfolio risk. / Vi bygger en riskfaktormodell givet en stor mängd portföljer innehållande flera olika typer av tillgångar. Riskfaktorerna väljs ut baserat på ekonomisk teori genom en analys av portföljernas innehåll samt genom statistiska test. Eftersom många tillgångar har en liten mängd historisk data tillgänglig implementerar vi och analyserar effekterna av regularisering i faktorregressionen. Två parametriska metoder för att beräkna Value-at-Risk (VaR) utvecklas baserat på faktormodellen: en med konstant volatilitet och en med volatilitetsuppdatering genom CCC-GARCH. Metoderna utvärderas med bakåttestning på daglig och veckovis avkastning från utvalda portföljer vars innehåll reflekterar den större majoriteten. En historisk data-baserad metod för att beräkna VaR används som referensmodell. Under daglig avkastning överträffar historisk data-modellen faktormodellerna med avseende på frekvensen av VaR-överträdelser. Ingen modell resulterar dock i oberoende överträdelser. Under veckovis avkastning å andra sidan ger båda faktormodellerna mer exakta överträdelsefrekvenser än historisk data-modellen, där faktormodellen med CCC-GARCH också ger oberoende överträdelser för nästan alla portföljer, tack vare modellens förmåga att justera upp VaR-estimaten i perioder av högre volatilitet på marknaden. Sammanfattningsvis ger skräddarsydda riskfaktormodeller goda riskestimat, givet att det är acceptabelt med veckovisa beräkningar av VaR.

Problématique. Le tabagisme est le facteur de risque le plus important de cancer du poumon, cependant, d'autres facteurs comme les combinaisons de prédispositions génétiques, d'expositions environnementales et d'autres facteurs liés au mode de vie peuvent également contribuer au risque. Cette étude vise à déterminer les associations entre les expositions professionnelles courantes et le risque de cancer du poumon. Méthodes. Une étude cas-cohorte nichée dans l'étude CARTaGENE a été utilisée. Les cas comprenaient tous les participants avec un diagnostic incident de cancer du poumon de 2009 à 2016 (n= 147). Au départ, une sous-cohorte de 1 032 individus a été échantillonnée. La matrice d'exposition professionnelle du Canada (CANJEM) a été utilisée pour déterminer les expositions professionnelles de l’emploi occupé le plus longtemps par les participants. Vingt-huit agents avec ≥ 5 cas exposés ont été retenus pour les analyses. Différents modèles de régression logistique multivariée avec des estimateurs de variance robuste ont été utilisés pour estimer les ratios des côtes (RC) et les intervalles de confiance (IC) à 95% pour les associations entre chaque agent et le risque de cancer du poumon tout en contrôlant pour les facteurs de risque établis. Résultats. Un risque accru de cancer du poumon a été observé chez les personnes exposées aux cendres (RC = 4.42; IC 95%: 1.75-11.15), au sulfate de calcium (RC = 4.13; IC 95%: 1.20-14.20), au chlorure d'hydrogène (RC = 3.79; 95% IC: 1.07-13.41), au formaldéhyde (RC = 3.73; IC 95%: 1.51-9.19), aux fumées de cuisson (RC = 2.92; IC 95%: 1.33-6.42), aux alcanes (RC = 4.33; IC 95%: 1.41-13.29), aux aldéhydes aliphatiques (RC = 3.94; IC 95%: 1.41-10.98) et aux agents de nettoyage (RC = 2.60; IC 95%: 1.50-4.52). Une diminution de l'incidence du cancer du poumon a été observée chez les participants exposés au monoxyde de carbone (RC = 0.29; IC 95%: 0.12-0.74) et aux hydrocarbures aromatiques polycycliques de pétrole (RC = 0.18; IC 95%: 0.05-0.60). Conclusion. Nos résultats soutiennent le rôle de plusieurs agents professionnels, pour lesquels nous avons des connaissances limitées, dans la contribution au risque de cancer du poumon. / Background. Smoking is the strongest risk factor for lung cancer; however, other factors like the combinations of genetic predisposition, environmental exposures, and other lifestyle factors may also contribute to risk. This study aims to determine associations between prevalent occupational exposures and lung cancer risk. Methods. A case-cohort design was nested within the CARTaGENE study. Cases included all participants with an incident diagnosis of lung cancer from 2009-2016 (n=147). A sub-cohort of 1,032 individuals was sampled at baseline. The Canadian Job Exposure Matrix was used to determine occupational exposures in participants’ longest-held job. Twenty-eight agents with ≥5 exposed cases were retained for analysis. Separate multivariable logistic regression models with robust variance estimators were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between each agent and lung cancer risk while controlling for established risk factors. Results. Increased lung cancer risk was found among those exposed to ashes (OR=4.42; 95% CI: 1.75-11.15), calcium sulfate (OR=4.13; 95% CI: 1.20-14.20), hydrogen chloride (OR=3.79; 95% CI: 1.07-13.41), formaldehyde (OR=3.73; 95% CI: 1.51-9.19), cooking fumes (OR=2.92; 95% CI: 1.33-6.42), alkanes (OR=4.33; 95% CI:1.41-13.29), aliphatic aldehydes (OR=3.94; 95% CI: 1.41-10.98), and cleaning agents (OR=2.60; 95% CI: 1.50-4.52). A decrease in lung cancer incidence was found among participants exposed to carbon monoxide (OR=0.29; 95% CI:0.12-0.74) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons from petroleum (OR=0.18; 95% CI: 0.05-0.60). Conclusion. Our findings support the role of several occupational agents, for which we have limited knowledge, in contributing to lung cancer risk.

No description available.

Supervisor: Nina Lindén Åkerlund Examiner: Staffan Bengtsson This study aims to investigate the impact of screen use on children and young adults. Previous research regarding screen use among children and young adults is compiled in a literature review in the form of a scoping review. The results have been thematically analyzed with the help of the SOC-theory (sense of coherence) and ecological systems theory. The results show that screen use has both positive and negative aspects that can be understood through factors of risk and protection which are prevalent on individual, group and societal levels. The study contributes to the understanding of the impact that screen use has on children and young adults and is particularly relevant in relation to social work.

Exploring the resilience construct is highly relevant for the field of learning disabilities. Resilience is a dynamic process of adaptation that involves interactions between a range of risk and protective factors. This research presents recent learning disability and resilience literature, focussing on the risk and protective factors in the lives of those with learning difficulties. Children with a learning disability often have associated emotional, behavioural and social difficulties that may become major obstacles to positive future outcomes. Historically little attention has been paid to the experiences of mothers of children with a learning disability and how the mother-child relationship may or may not foster the development of resilience in the learning disabled child. This research explores the issue within a qualitative framework / Educational Studies / M. Ed. (Guidance and Counselling)

Abortion and severe pre-eclampsia/eclampsia remain the major causes of maternal mortality in Zimbabwe. Based on this problem, factors associated with maternal mortality due to abortion and severe pre-eclampsia/eclampsia were investigated to improve pregnancy outcomes. Cases and controls were selected from 4895 abortion and 318 severe preeclampsia/ eclampsia obstetric records to conduct a retrospective case-control study. Significant risk factors identified for reducing maternal mortality due to postabortion complications included the administration of oxytocic drugs and evacuations of the uterus whilst anaemia and sepsis apparently reduced these women's chances of survival. No significant factors could be identified which influenced maternal deaths among women suffering from severe pre-eclampsia/eclampsia. Magnesium sulphate was not routinely administered, as recommended internationally. In both groups, cases apparently received better reported quantitative care than controls. Recommendations based on this research report include improved midwifery education and in-service training, regular audits of patients' records and changed policies for managing these conditions more effectively in Zimbabwe. / Health Studies / D. Litt. et Phil. (Advanced Nursing Sciences)

Vascular disease is the leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Incidence, risk factors, and outcome of coronary artery disease have been extensively studied, but there are fewer data on other forms of arterial disease, including carotid, aortic, visceral, and peripheral arterial disease. Although the burden of these diseases may be increasing due to the ageing population, we lack the most basic epidemiological data on which to base clinical decisions on individual patients (short and long-term prognosis); local service provision (current incidence and projected future burden); public health / screening initiatives (age and sex-specific incidence, risk factors, and outcome); and with which to assess current levels of primary prevention (pre-morbid risk factor control). Indeed, it is this lack of data, rather than a lack of treatments that is the greatest barrier to effective prevention. I have contributed to, cleaned, and analysed data from the Oxford Vascular Study, a prospective, population-based study (n=92,728) of all acute vascular events (2002-2012), and the Oxford Plaque Study, a carotid atherosclerosis biobank of over 1000 carotid plaques, in order to study these conditions. For acute aortic disease, I aimed to assess the risk factors associated with acute abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) and the population impact of the current UK AAA screening programme; and the incidence, risk factors, outcome, and projected future burden of acute aortic dissection. For acute peripheral arterial disease, I assessed the risk factors associated with premature onset and poor outcome, together with current levels of primary prevention. For symptomatic carotid artery disease, I studied the timing and benefits of surgical intervention in the current era; and went on to assess whether underlying carotid plaque morphology can be used to improve stroke risk stratification and help explain why ocular and cerebral stroke types have vast differences in future ipsilateral stroke risk. I found that compared with the current UK AAA screening strategy (one-off scan for men aged 65), screening of male smokers at 65 and all men at 75 would prevent nearly four-times as many deaths and three-times as many life-years lost with 21% fewer annual scans. I have also shown that incidence of acute aortic dissection is higher than previous estimates, a third of cases are out-of-hospital deaths, and uncontrolled hypertension is the most significant treatable risk factor for this condition. For acute peripheral arterial disease, the presence of multiple atherosclerotic risk factors are associated with premature onset, and severity of ischaemia, pre-morbid renal dysfunction, cardiac failure, and diabetes mellitus are predictive of future limb loss and survival. A significant proportion of acute peripheral events are AF-related in high risk patients who were not pre-morbidly anticoagulated despite having no contraindications and being at low risk of bleeding. Symptomatic carotid artery disease currently accounts for <10% of incident cerebrovascular events, and only 40% of these patients undergo surgical intervention. Due to improvements in medical therapy and on-going delays to intervention, little benefit is currently obtained from intervening in patients with <70% stenosis. Ipsilateral stroke risk is correlated with several carotid plaque features in a time-dependent manner, confirming the potential utility of plaque morphology in risk stratification. In addition, plaques from patients with cerebral events were significantly more unstable and inflammatory than from those with ocular events, helping explain differences in stroke risk between these groups. My findings advance the understanding of these conditions that form the backbone of modern vascular surgical practice, and I hope will improve prevention, clinical management, and outcome for patients with vascular disease.

Background. Previous research suggests that individuals experiencing DSM-IV panic attacks (PA) are at increased risk for various forms of psychopathology, including anxiety, depressive and substance use disorders. However, little is known regarding whether the sole occurrence of fearful spells (FS-only; distressing spells of anxiety with less than four panic symptoms and/or lacking crescendo in symptom onset) similarly elevates the risk for subsequent psychopathology and could therefore be promising to identify high-risk groups for targeted preventive interventions. Thus, the current dissertation thesis aims to examine (a) whether FS-only predict incident mental disorders in addition to full-blown PA and whether their associations with subsequent psychopathology differ from those obtained for PA, (b) whether FS-only, PA, and panic disorder (PD) share similar etiologies, (c) which characteristics of initial FS/PA and other risk factors predict a progression to more severe panic pathology and other mental disorders, and (d) whether help-seeking/potential treatment in individuals with panic alters the risk for subsequent psychopathology. Methods. A representative community sample of adolescents and young adults (N=3021, aged 14-24 at baseline) was prospectively followed up in up to three assessment waves over a time period of up to 10 years. FS-only, PA, PD, and other mental disorders were assessed at each assessment wave using the DSM-IV-M-CIDI. Additional modules/questionnaires were used to assess characteristics of initial FS/PA (T1/T2), potential risk factors, and help-seeking/potential treatment. Logistic regressions were applied to test associations (Odds Ratios, OR) of FS-only and PA at baseline with incident mental disorders at follow-up as well as respective interactive effects with help-seeking at baseline. Associations (Hazard Ratios, HR) of putative risk factors with the onset of panic pathology (FS-only, PA, and PD) or the onset of subsequent anxiety/depressive vs. substance use disorders in those with panic pathology (aggregated data across assessment waves) were estimated with Cox regressions. Multinomial logistic regressions were used to test associations of initial FS/PA characteristics (aggregated from T1 and T2) with PA and PD (lifetime incidences aggregated across assessment waves). Results. FS-only at baseline predicted incident anxiety and depressive disorders at follow-up (OR 1.59-4.36), while PA at baseline predicted incident anxiety, depressive, and substance use disorders at follow-up (OR 2.08-8.75; reference group: No FS/PA). Merely any anxiety disorder (OR=3.26) and alcohol abuse/dependence (OR=2.26) were significantly more strongly associated with PA than with FS-only. Female sex, parental anxiety disorders, parental depressive disorders, behavioral inhibition, harm avoidance, lower coping efficacy, and parental rejection predicted FS-only, PA, and PD (HR 1.2-3.0), whereas the associations with other risk factors partially differed for FS-only, PA, and PD and tended to be more pronounced for PA and PD than for FS-only. Alcohol consumption, use of drugs/medication, and physical illness as perceived reasons for the initial FS/PA were associated with the occurrence of full-blown PA (without PD, OR 2.46-5.44), while feelings of anxiety/depression and having always been anxious/nervous as perceived reasons for the initial FS/PA, appraising the initial FS/PA as terrible and long-term irritating/burdensome, subsequent feelings of depression, avoidance of situations/places, and consumption of medication, alcohol, or drugs were associated with the development of PD (OR 2.64-4.15). A longer duration until “feeling okay again” was associated with both PA and PD (OR 1.29-1.63 per category). Moreover, partially different risk constellations in subjects with panic pathology (FS/PA/PD) predicted the onset of subsequent anxiety/depressive vs. substance use disorders. Panic pathology (FS/PA) and help-seeking/potential treatment at baseline interacted on predicting incident PD (OR=0.09) and depression (OR=0.22) at follow-up in a way that panic pathology only predicted these disorders in individuals not seeking help at baseline. Conclusions. Findings suggest that individuals with FS-only are at similar risk of developing subsequent psychopathology compared to individuals with full-blown PA. Specific initial FS/PA characteristics and additional risk factors may be used to identify sub-groups of individuals with panic pathology, which are at particular risk of progressing to more severe panic pathology or other mental disorders and might therefore profit from supplemental outcome-related preventive interventions in addition to panic-specific treatment. Future research may replicate the current findings and test the efficacy of targeted preventive interventions in panickers at elevated risk for PD and other forms of psychopathology. / Theoretischer Hintergrund. Auf Grundlage früherer Forschungsbefunde ist anzunehmen, dass Personen mit DSM-IV-Panikattacken (PA) ein erhöhtes Risiko für zahlreiche psychische Störungen, einschließlich Angst-, depressiver und Substanzstörungen, aufweisen. Unklar ist jedoch, ob das alleinige Auftreten von Fearful Spells (FS-only, Angstanfälle mit weniger als vier Paniksymptomen und/oder fehlendem Crescendo in der Symptomentwicklung) das Risiko für Psychopathologie in ähnlicher Weise erhöht und hilfreich sein könnte, um Hochrisikogruppen für Präventivinterventionen zu identifizieren. Innerhalb der vorliegenden Dissertation wird daher untersucht, (a) ob FS-only zusätzlich zu PA inzidente psychische Störungen vorhersagen und ob sich Unterschiede in den Assoziationen von FS-only vs. PA mit nachfolgender Psychopathologie ergeben, (b) ob FS-only, PA und Panikstörung (PS) ähnliche Ätiologien teilen, (c) welche Merkmale initialer FS/PA und welche anderen Risikofaktoren die Entwicklung schwerer Panikpathologie und weiterer psychischer Störungen vorhersagen und (d) ob Hilfesuchverhalten/potenzielle Behandlung bei Personen mit Panik das Risiko für nachfolgende Psychopathologie verändert. Methodik. Eine repräsentative Bevölkerungsstichprobe Jugendlicher und junger Erwachsener (N=3021, 14-24 Jahre zur Baseline-Erhebung) wurde in bis zu drei Erhebungswellen über einen Zeitraum von bis zu 10 Jahren untersucht. FS-only, PA, PS und andere psychische Störungen wurden zu jeder Erhebungswelle mithilfe des DSM-IV-M-CIDI erfasst. Merkmale initialer FS/PA (T1/T2), mögliche Risikofaktoren sowie Hilfesuchverhalten/potenzielle Behandlung wurden mit weiteren Modulen und Fragebögen erhoben. Mithilfe logistischer Regressionen wurden Assoziationen (Odds Ratios, OR) von FS-only und PA zu Baseline mit inzidenten psychischen Störungen zum Follow-Up sowie diesbezügliche Interaktionen mit Hilfesuchverhalten zu Baseline getestet. Zusammenhänge zwischen möglichen Risikofaktoren und dem Auftreten von Panikpathologie (FS-only, PA und PS) bzw. nachfolgender Angst-/depressiver und Substanzstörungen bei Personen mit Panikpathologie (Verwendung von über die Erhebungswellen hinweg aggregierter Daten) wurden mithilfe von Cox-Regressionen geschätzt. Multinomiale logistische Regressionen wurden genutzt, um Assoziationen von Merkmalen initialer FS/PA (aggregiert über T1 und T2) mit PA und PS (über die Erhebungswellen hinweg aggregierte Lebenszeitinzidenzen) zu erfassen. Ergebnisse. FS-only zu Baseline sagten inzidente Angst- und depressive Störungen zum Follow-Up vorher (OR 1.59-4.36), wohingegen PA zu Baseline inzidente Angst-, depressive und Substanzstörungen zum Follow-Up vorhersagten (OR 2.08-8.75; Referenzkategorie: Keine FS/PA). Lediglich irgendeine Angststörung (OR=3.26) und Alkoholmissbrauch/-abhängigkeit (OR=2.26) waren signifikant stärker mit PA als mit FS-only assoziiert. Weibliches Geschlecht, elterliche Angst- und depressive Störungen, Verhaltenshemmung, Schadensvermeidung, geringere Coping-Erwartung und elterliche Zurückweisung sagten FS-only, PA und PS vorher (HR 1.2-3.0), während sich teils unterschiedliche Assoziationen anderer Risikofaktoren mit FS-only, PA und PS ergaben, die tendenziell stärker für PA und PS als für FS-only waren. Alkoholkonsum, Drogen-/Medikamentengebrauch und körperliche Erkrankungen als wahrgenommene Gründe für die initiale FS/PA waren mit dem Auftreten vollständiger PA assoziiert (ohne PS; OR 2.46-5.44), während Gefühle von Angst/Depression und die Einschätzung schon immer ängstlich/nervös gewesen zu sein als wahrgenommene Gründe für die initiale FS/PA, die Bewertung der initialen FS/PA als schrecklich und langfristig verunsichernd/belastend, nachfolgende Gefühle von Niedergeschlagenheit, Vermeidung von Situationen/Orten und Konsum von Medikamenten, Alkohol oder Drogen mit der Entwicklung von PS assoziiert waren (OR 2.64-4.15). Eine längere Dauer bis sich die betroffene Person wieder vollständig in Ordnung fühlte war sowohl mit PA als auch mit PS assoziiert (OR 1.29-1.63 pro Kategorie). Weiterhin sagten teils unterschiedliche Risikokonstellationen bei Personen mit Panikpathologie (FS/PA/PS) die nachfolgende Entstehung von Angst-/depressiven und Substanzstörungen vorher. Panikpathologie (FS/PA) und Hilfesuchverhalten/potenzielle Behandlung zu Baseline interagierten bei der Vorhersage von inzidenter PS (OR=0.09) und Depression (OR=0.22) zum Follow-Up; d.h. das Vorhandensein von Panikpathologie sagte diese Störungen nur bei Personen ohne, nicht aber bei Personen mit Hilfesuchverhalten zu Baseline vorher. Schlussfolgerungen. Die vorliegenden Ergebnisse implizieren, dass Personen mit FS-only im Vergleich zu Personen mit vollständigen PA ein ähnliches Risiko für die Entwicklung nachfolgender Psychopathologie aufweisen. Spezifische Merkmale initialer FS/PA und zusätzliche Risikofaktoren könnten zur Identifikation von Sub-Gruppen von Personen mit Panik genutzt werden, die sich durch ein besonderes Risiko für schwergradige Panikpathologie und andere psychische Störungen auszeichnen und demzufolge von Outcome-bezogenen Präventionen (ergänzend zu Panik-spezifischer Intervention) profitieren könnten. Zukünftige Studien sollten die vorliegenden Befunde replizieren und die Effektivität gezielter Präventivinterventionen bei Personen mit erhöhtem Risiko für PS und andere psychische Störungen testen.