本研究提出一個兩階段的時空模型來分析空氣污染與健康的關係。我們選取在台灣的49個有設置空氣品質監測站的鄉鎮市區做為研究地區。資料包含這些小地區中1997-2001年的各地區每日因呼吸道疾病而就醫的門診人數與空氣污染物濃度與氣象監測資料。在第一階段中，對每一個月所有地區的每日因呼吸道疾病而就醫的門診人數與空氣污染配適時空模型，並利用氣象條件等因素做調整。在第二階段裡，利用線性混合效果模型將第一階段所獲得的60 個月空氣污染物係數估計值來獲得代表這五年全國整體污染物係數的估計。本文利用模擬研究來探討當季節因素與不可解釋的因素，例如像流行性感冒等存在時會對文獻上其他時空模型中參數的估計所造成的影響，同時與我們所提出的方法作一比較。 / We proposed a spatiotemporal model to investigate the association between the acute health effects and daily numbers of clinic visits for respiratory illness. The data include clinic records due to respiratory illness and environmental variables from air quality monitoring stations in Taiwan during 1997-2001. A small-area design and two-phase modeling were used for the analysis. In the first phase, we constructed a Poisson regression with autogressive residual process and spatial correlation to obtain the pollution coefficient of each single month. In the second phase, we combined the information from phase one model to improve estimates of the pollution coefficients of each month and to obtain an overall pollution coefficient across the temporal course. Simulation study was used to illustrate the bias of estimation when there are seasonal, spatial and the unexplained effects in the data.

Sammanfattning Väldigt lite är känt om hur olika träningsmetoder påverkar teknisk utveckling hos innebandyspelare. Syftet med studien var att undersöka hur olika typer av smålagsspel i innebandy påverkar spelvolymen samt antal avslut och avslut på mål. Frågeställningarna för arbetet var: skiljer sig spelvolymen i innebandyns smålagsspel mellan spel två mot två (2v2), 3v3, 4v4 och 5v5? Skiljer sig antalet avslut i innebandyns smålagsspel mellan spel 2v2, 3v3, 4v4 och 5v5? Skiljer sig antalet avslut på mål i innebandyns smålagsspel mellan spel 2v2, 3v3, 4v4 och 5v5? Metod Två testgrupper rekryterades till studien där grupperna bestod av två olika amatörlag. Det ena laget var ett damveteranlag där 15 spelare deltog, med en medelålder på 38 år, med 2-15 års erfarenhet av organiserad innebandy. Det andra laget var ett pojklag med 21 deltagande spelare, i åldrarna 12-13 år, med 5-6 års erfarenhet av innebandy. Datainsamlingen skedde sedan under respektive lags ordinarie träning där fyra olika spelformer filmades. Ena laget filmades tio gånger för vardera spelform och det andra laget filmades tio gånger för vardera spelform förutom en, där en spelsekvens försvann på grund av oförutsedda händelser. Varje spelsekvens var en minut lång. Därefter analyserades filmmaterialet varpå spelvolym, antal avslut samt avslut på mål registrerades för varje minut spelad i de olika spelformerna. Rådata sammanställdes och genomgick sedan en statistisk analys för att undersöka om spelen skiljde sig signifikant i någon del. Resultat Grupp A visade på signifikant skillnad i spelvolym mellan alla spelformer där den högsta volymen hittades i spel 2v2, därefter följde 3v3, 4v4 och sist 5v5. Alla smålagsspel för grupp A visade signifikant fler avslut och avslut på mål jämfört med spel 5v5 men ingen signifikant skillnad hittades smålagsspelen emellan. I grupp B hittades samma mönster för spelvolym som i grupp A, dock visades ingen signifikant skillnad mellan spelformerna 4v4 och 5v5. Antalet avslut var signifikant högre i alla smålagsspel jämfört med 5v5, dock hittades endast signifikans mellan 2v2 och 5v5 när det kom till avslut på mål. Slutsats Studien indikerar att en minskning i antalet spelare verkar vara ett effektivt sätt att öka frekvensen på de tekniska aktionerna under spel. För teknikträning i spel verkar därför smålagsspel vara att föredra framför fullstort spel 5v5. Mer forskning på området behövs för att öka förståelsen kring möjliga användningsområden för innebandyns smålagsspel. / Aim Very little is known about how different types of training influence technical development in floorball. The purpose of this study was to investigate how volume of play, shots, and shots on goal, were affected in different types of small-sided games (SSG). The research questions this paper sought to answer were: in floorball, does the volume of play differ between the game formats: two versus two (2v2), 3v3, 4v4, and 5v5? In floorball, does the number of shots differ between the game formats: 2v2, 3v3, 4v4, and 5v5? In floorball, does the number of shots on goal differ between the game formats: 2v2, 3v3, 4v4, and 5v5? Method Two amateur teams were recruited for the study. One team was a women’s team of 15 players participating, with an average age of 38, with 2-15 years’ experience of organized floorballpractice. The other team was a boys’ team of 21 players participating, aged 12-13 and 5-6 years’experience of organized floorball practice. The data were collected during one of each team’sregular floorball practice sessions, where video captured the four different SSGs. One team was filmed ten times for one minute for each SSG and the other team was filmed ten times in three SSGs and nine times in one. The videos were analysed for volume of play, as well as registering shots and shots on goal. The compiled data was then statistically analysed in order to see if there were any significant difference between the game formats. Results Group A showed a significant difference in volume of play between all SSGs, where the highest volume of play was found in 2v2, and the rest with a lower volume of play in ascending order. As for shots and shots on goal, group A showed significantly more shots and shots on goal in 2v2, 3v3, and 4v4 compared to 5v5, but no significance was found between the SSGs. Group B showed a similar pattern in volume of play as found in group A, but no significant difference between 4v4 and 5v5. The amount of shots were significantly higher in 2v2, 3v3, and 4v4 compared to 5v5. However, for shots on goal group B only showed 2v2 producing significantly more shots than 5v5. Conclusion The study indicates that reducing the number ofplayers is aneffective wayto increase technical actions. Therefore, SSGs seems to be better for skill acquisition in games than the large game of 5v5. However, more research is needed in this field for further understanding of the uses of SSG:s in floorball.

由於誤差與人口數成反比，資料多寡影響統計分析的穩定性及可靠性，因此常用於推估大區域人口的方法，往往無法直接套用至縣市及其以下層級，尤其當小區域內部地理、社會或經濟的異質性偏高時，人口推估將更為棘手。本文以兩個面向對臺灣小區域人口進行探討：其一、臺灣人口結構漸趨老化，勢必牽動政府政策與資源分配，且臺灣各縣市的人口老化速度不一，有必要針對各地特性發展適當的小區域人口推估方法；其二、因為壽命延長，全球皆面臨長壽風險(Longevity Risk)的挑戰，包括政府退休金制度規劃、壽險保費釐定等，由於臺灣各地死亡率變化不盡相同，發展小區域死亡率模型也是迫切課題。 小區域推估面臨的問題大致可歸納為四個方向：「資料品質」、「地區人數」、「資料年數」與「推估年數」，資料品質有賴資料庫與制度的建立，關於後三個問題，本文引進修勻(Smoothing, Graduation)等方法來提高小區域推估及小區域死亡模型的穩定性。人口推估方面結合修勻與區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)，死亡率模型的建構則將修勻加入Lee-Carter與Age-Period-Cohort模型。由於小區域人口數較少，本文透過標準死亡比(Standard Mortality Ratio)及大區域與小區域間的連貫(Coherence)，將大區域的訊息加入小區域，降低因為地區人數較少引起的震盪。 小區域推估通常可用的資料時間較短，未來推估結果的震盪也較大，本文針對需要過去幾年資料，以及未來可推估年數等因素進行研究，希冀結果可提供臺灣各地方政府的推估參考。研究發現，參考大區域訊息有穩定推估的效果，修勻有助於降低推估誤差；另外，在小區域推估中，如有過去十五年資料可獲得較可靠的推估結果，而未來推估年數盡量不超過二十年，若地區人數過少則建議合併其他區域增加資料量後再行推估；先經過修勻而得出的死亡率模型，其效果和較為複雜的連貫模型修正相當。 / The population size plays a very important role in statistical estimation, and it is difficult to derive a reliable estimation for small areas. The estimation is even more difficult if the geographic and social attributes within the small areas vary widely. However, although the population aging and longevity risk are common phenomenon in the world, the problem is not the same for different countries. The aim of this study is to explore the population projection and mortality models for small areas, with the consideration of the small area’s distinguishing characteristic. The difficulties for small area population projection can be attributed into four directions: data quality, population size, number of base years, and projection horizon. The data quality is beyond the discussion of this study and the main focus shall be laid on the other three issues. The smoothing methods and coherent models will be applied to improve the stability and accuracy of small area estimation. In the study, the block bootstrap and the smoothing methods are combined to project the population to the small areas in Taiwan. Besides, the Lee-Cater and the age-period-cohort model are extended by the smoothing and coherent methods. We found that the smoothing methods can reduce the fluctuation of estimation and projection in general, and the improvement is especially noticeable for areas with smaller population sizes. To obtain a reliable population projection for small areas, we suggest using at least fifteen-year of historical data for projection and a projection horizon not more than twenty years. Also, for developing mortality models for small areas, we found that the smoothing methods have similar effects than those methods using more complicated models, such as the coherent models.

由於許多國家死亡率下降快速、壽命延長幅度超乎預期，加上生育率持續低於替代水準，人口老化現象愈發明顯，近年來個人生涯規劃及政府施政，都格外強調退休後經濟生活及老年相關社會資源分配的比重。以臺灣為例，行政院經濟建設委員會 (簡稱經建會) 從1990年代開始，每兩年公布一次未來的人口推估，但過去十年來經建會屢次修正歷年的推估假設，以因應生育率及死亡率變化快速，適時提醒臺灣日益加速的人口老化。正因為人口推估可能受到人口數、社會變遷、資料品質等因素，影響統計分析的可靠性，常用於國家層級的推估方法，往往無法直接套用至縣市及其以下的層級 (即小區域)，使得小區域人口推估較為棘手，需要更加謹慎面對。 本文延續王信忠等人 (2012) 的研究，以小區域人口推估為目標，著重在生育率推估研究，結合隨機模型與修勻方法，尋找適合臺灣縣市層級的小區域人口推估方法。本文考量的隨機模型計有區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap) 和 Lee-Carter 模型 (Lee and Carter 1992)，以預測未來的生育率和死亡率，並套用年輪組成推計法 (或稱為人口要素合成法；Cohort Component Method) 及修勻 (Graduation) 方法，探討這些方法與人口規模之間的關係，評估用於小區域人口推估之可行性。 本文首先以電腦模擬，探討生育率的推估，討論是否可直接推估總生育率，類似增加樣本數的概念，取代各縣市的年齡別生育率，以取得較為穩定的推估。根據模擬結果，發現人口規模對出生數的推估沒有明顯的關係，只要使用總生育率、再結合區塊拔靴法，就足以提供穩定的推估結果。實證研究方面，以臺灣縣市層級的人口及其年齡結構 (例如：0-14歲、15-64歲、65歲以上) 為驗證對象，發現分析結果也與電腦模擬相似，發現以區塊拔靴法推估臺灣各縣市的總生育率、年齡組死亡率，其推估精確度不因人口規模而打折扣，顯示以區塊拔靴法推估總生育率、年齡組死亡率，可用於推估臺灣小地區的未來人口。 / Due to the rapid mortality reduction, prolonging human longevity is a common phenomenon and longevity risk receives more attention in 21st century. Many developed countries encounter many problems brought up by prolonging life, such as poor community infrastructure and insufficient financial pension funds for the elderly. Population Projection thus becomes essential in government planning in dealing with the population aging. However, rapid changes in mortality and fertility make the projection very tricky. It would be even more difficult to project areas with fewer populations (i.e., small areas) since it takes extra efforts to deal with the larger fluctuations in small population. The objective of the study is to construct a standard operating procedure (SOP) for small population projection. Unlike the previous study, e.g., Wang et al. (2012), we will take both the fertility and mortality into account (but set migration aside for simplicity). First, for the fertility projection, we evaluate if total fertility rates (TFR) are more appropriate than the age-specific fertility rates for small population. Also, we compare two fertility projection methods: Lee-Carter model and block bootstrap, and check which shows better results. Based on the computer simulation, we found that TFR performs better and the block bootstrap method is more sensitive to rapid fertility changes. As for mortality rate projection, we also recommend the standard operating procedure by Wang et al. (2012). However, the smoothing methods have limited impacts on mortality projection and can be ignored. In addition to simulation, we also apply the SOP for projecting the small population to Taiwan counties and it achieves satisfactory results. However, due to the availability of data, our method can only be used for short-term projection (at most 30 years) and these results might not apply to long-term projection. Also, similar to the previous work, the fertility rates have the larger impact on small population projection, although we think that the migration has large impact as well. In this study, only the stochastic projection is considered and we shall consider including expert opinions as the future study.

國家政策之制定須配合未來人口總數及其結構等特性，藉以達到提高國民福 祉的願景，因此各國均定期公佈人口推估(Population Projection)的結果，目前臺 灣官方人口推估為每兩年公布一次。人口推估主要考量三個要素：出生、死亡、 遷移，以國家層級而言，通常遷徙對未來人口的影響遠小於出生與死亡，所以過 去行政院經濟建設委員會的官方全國人口推估一般專注於出生與死亡。然而，各 國研究發現遷徙是小區域人口推估為最重要的因素，人口數愈少、影響程度有愈 大的傾向，但文獻中較缺乏臺灣內部遷移的研究。如能掌握臺灣小區域人口遷徙 的變遷，將能使政策因地制宜，有助地方政府提高推行政策的有效性，也是本研 究之目標。 由於缺乏完整的縣市、鄉鎮市區層級的詳細遷移資料，本研究以人口平衡公 式反推淨遷移人數，找出各地區的遷移特性後，代入人口變動要素合成法(Cohort Component Method)，搭配屬於機率推估的區塊拔靴法(Block Bootstrap)，推估小 區域的未來人口。關於出生及死亡的推估，過去研究發現使用區塊拔靴法用於小 區域的生育率（曹育欣，2012）及死亡率（金碩，2011），皆有不錯的推估結果。 本研究以臺北市為範例，討論區塊拔靴法在小區域遷徙人口數、年齡別遷徙人口 的推估效果，及是否適合運用在其他不同縣市。 / The population projection is used to provide information for the policy planning of governments. In Taiwan, the Council for Economic Planning and Development is in charge of the official population projection and it release projection results every two years. Basically, three factors are considered in population projection: birth, death, and migration. Since the migration has little impacts in country-level projection, many countries (including Taiwan) assume the future migration is zero or close to zero, and the focus of projection is usually on the birth and death. However, for the projection of small area (such as county- or township-level), past studies found that the effect of migration cannot be ignored. But, partly due to the limitation of migration data, there are not many studies explore the migration patterns of counties or townships in Taiwan. In this study, we use the population records (births and deaths) and the population equation to derive the county-level records of internal migration in Taiwan. We use these data to explore the migration patterns of all counties in Taiwan, and then applying block bootstrap method to modify the county-level population projection. Note that, the block bootstrap is shown to be reliable in forecasting fertility (Tsao, 2012) and mortality (Jin, 2011) for small areas. In this study, we also use the Taipei City to demonstrate the population projection which includes the internal migration, and the result is promising.

臺灣各縣市人口結構差異明顯，各縣市的人口出生、老化程度都不盡相同，而且在醫療分配及社會資源的使用也有很大的差異，因此各縣市應因應各地特性發展不同的小區域人口推估方法。由於樣本數與變異數成反比，人數較少者的死亡率（像是高齡人口）通常震盪較大，藉由適當的修勻(Graduation)調整，通常可降低年齡層間的死亡率震盪。然而，當縣市層級的人數太少時，只依賴修勻往往不足，多半會再參考人口較多的大母體之死亡率。例如：傳統的的貝氏修勻，使用Lee-Carter之類的參數死亡模型(Lee and Carter, 1992)，或是透過小區域及大母體的死亡率比值（王信忠, 2012）。然而過去研究較少全面性的比較這些方法，尤其是用於人數較少（如：十萬人）的地區。 本文以探討小區域生命表及死亡率推估為目標，著眼於人數不多於五萬人，尋求較為適合臺灣及類似國家的死亡率編算方法。由於修勻或貝氏等方法可視為增加樣本數，本文將擴大樣本分為四種方式：「同地同時」、「同地異時」、「異地同時」、「異地異時」，亦即將死亡資料的整併分成是否限定於小區域，以及是否可擴及其他年度。本文藉由電腦模擬測試，提供在各種限制之下，最合適小區域生命表建構的準則。其中，本文假設大、小區域的死亡率間存有三種情境的關係：定值、遞增、V字型，藉由調整大小區域死亡率比值間的幅度，探討大母體及小區域間的差異對實務使用的影響。研究發現，Partial SMR方法是一個值得參考的方法，當大小區域死亡率類型接近時的效果不錯，甚至可用於人數小於一萬人，但若死亡率類型差異過大，修勻方法會有限制，使用時需格外謹慎。 / The population structure, life expectancy (and age-specific mortality rates), and the speed of population aging vary a lot in different county of Taiwan. Each county has its own policy planning according to the needs. However, the county level population is usually not enough to provide stable estimates, such as of the life expectancies and mortality rates at the county level. Thus, certain graduation methods are applied to stabilize these estimates. However, only a few studies focus on comparing different types of graduation methods, including traditional graduation methods, Bayesian methods, and parametric mortality models. In this study, we separate the graduation methods into four types, according to if using only the small area data and if one year or multiple years of data are used, and explore which methods are appropriate to the areas with population fewer than 100,000. We use computer simulation to evaluate the graduation methods. We found that the Standard Mortality Ratio is promising when the mortality profiles of small and large populations are similar, and it is a feasible solution even for the areas with population fewer than 10,000. However, if the mortality profiles differ significantly, all graduation methods need to be applied with care.

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壽命延長及生育率下降使得人口老化日益明顯，成為全球多數國家在21世紀必須面對的議題，由於各區域人口老化的速度不同，必須根據各地特性而調整因應對策。其中研究死亡率變化為面對人口老化的必備課題，尤其是高齡族群的死亡率，這也是近年高齡死亡模型廣受重視的主因之一。因為樣本數與變異數成反比，人口較少的區域或是高齡人口，死亡率的觀察值通常會有較大震盪，為了降低震盪多半會經過修勻，以取得較為穩定的死亡率推估值（王信忠等人，2012）。此外，Li and Lee (2005)的Coherent Lee-Carter模型也是另一種可行方法，透過參考大區域的資訊降低小區域的估計誤差。 本文探討結合上述修勻、死亡率模型的可能，希冀能綜合兩者的優點，提高小區域死亡率推估的精確性。因為Coherent Lee-Carter模型的想法類似增加小區域的人數（加入大區域的人數），本文探討人口數與Lee-Carter模型參數估計值的關係，再以修勻調整大小區域的差異，透過電腦模擬及資料分析，驗證本文提出方法是否有效。其中，仿造王信忠等人的作法，假設小區域與大區域死亡率間的七種可能情境，以平均絕對百分誤差(Mean Absolute Percentage Error)為衡量標準，找出調整修勻、相關模型的方法。另外，本文也以臺灣縣市為研究區域，驗證本文方法的估計結果。研究發現適當地使用修勻方法，可降低小區域的死亡率估計值，其效果優於Coherent Lee-Carter模型。

一個國家對全國人口有充分瞭解，方能依據國情制定適合的政策，地方發展更是如此，更須洞悉各地的人口結構，以善用有限的資源。台灣近年人口老化日益明顯，各縣市的老化速度及人口問題也不盡相同，若可獲得各地區未來的人口相關數值 (亦即人口推估)，當能減輕未來人口老化對台灣造成的衝擊。本文以縣市層級的人口推估，也就是小區域人口推估為研究目標，探討需注意的事項，尋找適合台灣地區的小區域推估方法。 本文整理小區域人口推估方法，並使用人口要素變動合成法 (Cohort Component Method)，以雲嘉兩縣、臺北市、澎湖縣為範例，測試縣市層級的人口推估。人口推估與生育、死亡、遷移三者的假設有密切關係，我們以死亡率為目標，比較不同模型的優劣，考慮的模型包括 Lee-Carter 模型、區塊拔靴法 (Block Bootstrap)、篩網拔靴法 (Sieve Bootstrap) 以及泛函資料分析 (Functional Data Analysis) 中的主成份分析 (Principle Component Analysis)，以估計誤差為衡量方法優劣的標準。分析發現篩網拔靴法、區塊拔靴法、Lee-Carter 模型三者的結果較佳，因此在小區域推估中使用較簡便的區塊拔靴法。研究發現對小區域的人口推估而言，遷移假設扮演非常重要的角色，此與全國規模的人口推估結果截然不同。研究過程亦發現人口三要素對人口推估有明顯的影響，若假設三要素間互相獨立 (也就是傳統推估時的假設)，推估結果的預測區間遠小於三要素不獨立。 / The government can make policy according to the population change in this country, while the local government can develop their district by using their limited resources well after realizing the populaton structure. The population ageing is becoming more serious and being more different among every counties in Taiwan day by day. If we can get the relative numbers of population in the future (population projection), we can decrease the attack of population ageing for Taiwan. The aim of this paper is to find an appropriate method and some notations of small area population projection in Taiwan. The paper includes the summary of methods of small area population projection and the results by using cohort component method on three areas in Taiwan, YunLin & ChiaYi, Taipein City and PengHu. Population projection is highly related with birth, death and migration, hence we test the mortality rate by using several methods, Lee-Carter, block bootstrap, sieve bootstrap and principal component analysis of functional data analysis are included. We found that the result of sieve bootstrap, block bootstrap and Lee-Carter are much better than the others, therefore, we take block bootstrap which is much simpler than the other two to analysis the effect of birth, death and migration in population projection. The sutdy found that, in small area population projecton, migration plays an important role, which is totally different from the whole country population projection.

Submitted by Kilvya Braga (kilvyabraga@hotmail.com) on 2018-04-25T12:33:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 BRUNO MOURA MIRANDA - DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGEG) 2015.pdf: 9948864 bytes, checksum: 4dfc5042bae3dedf54ac975413988ca9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-04-25T12:33:46Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 BRUNO MOURA MIRANDA - DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGEG) 2015.pdf: 9948864 bytes, checksum: 4dfc5042bae3dedf54ac975413988ca9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-27 / O objetivo deste trabalho foi desenvolver um equipamento de injeção de resina para processar compósitos via moldagem por transferência de resina de uso laboratorial. Foi cumprida a seguinte metodologia: concepção, fabricação e testes no equipamento, testes de injeção nas estações de processamento, fabricação de placas compósitas e posterior caracterização. Os materiais utilizados nos experimentos foram: Manta de fibra de vidro (450g/m2), tecido básico de fibra de vidro (600 g/m2) e resina poliéster insaturada ortofitálica de média viscosidade Arazyn 1.0 #08 Ara Ashland ® e catalisador Butanox 50. Foram produzidas placas de pequena área, com dimensões de: 175x125x5mm e de grande área, com dimensões de: 340x340x5mm. Baseado nos experimentos resultados, conclui-se que foi possível o projeto, desenvolvimento e fabricação de um equipamento de injeção de resina por RTM de uso laboratorial, de baixo custo, com baixas perdas energéticas, para fabricação de compósitos com reforço dos tipos: manta e tecido, com diferentes gramaturas e pequena espessura. / The objective of this work was design a laboratorial Resin Transfer Moulding Equipment to process composites. The following methodology was fulfilled: Design and manufacture of the equipment, testing its process capabilities, injection tests in the processing stations, manufacturing of composite plates and further characterization. The materials used in the experiments were glass fiber mat (450g / m2), base glass fiber fabric (600 g / m2), a medium viscosity 1.0 Arazyn Ara Ashland ® # 08 unsaturated polyester resin and 50 Butanox. Small and large area plates were produced with dimensions of: 175x125x5mm and 340x340x5mm respectively. Based on the experiments results, it is concluded that it was possible the design, development and manufacture of a resin injection equipment RTM for laboratory use with low cost and low energy losses, for the manufacture of composites with two reinforcement kind: mat and fabric, with different weights and thin.