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Sistema de recomendação de artigos científicos utilizando dados sociais / Papers recommender system using social informationArthur Patricio Grava 21 June 2016 (has links)
Sistemas de recomendação estão se tornando ferramentas indispensáveis para diversos websites, que buscam oferecer ao seu usuário uma experiência personalizada e simplificada, e sua adoção se deve principalmente devido ao grande volume de dados disponíveis, advindos de diferentes fontes e contendo informações diversificadas, aumentando a necessidade e a complexidade de se extrair valor desses dados. Com o surgimento de redes sociais online os usuários passaram a expressar seus gostos e preferências além de estabelecer relações com outros usuários, podendo estes serem seus amigos, parentes, ídolos, etc. Estas possibilidades encontradas em redes sociais motivou o presente trabalho a interpretar a comunidade científica como uma rede social, utilizando relações de coautoria, colaboração em projetos, orientações, além de citações de trabalhos e, consequentemente, citações aos respectivos autores. O objetivo deste projeto foi propor um sistema de recomendação de trabalhos científicos combinando informações sociais e informações bibliométricas, no que diz respeito a artigos citados em publicações, caraterizando-se como um facilitador para auxiliar os pesquisadores a responderem perguntas como: Quais artigos interessantes da minha área eu ainda não tenho conhecimento? e Quais artigos podem auxiliar em trabalhos que tenho em desenvolvimento? Para atingir o objetivo proposto foram desenvolvidas duas abordagens de recomendação. A primeira abordagem teve como premissa que o tempo em que as relações entre os autores foi estabelecida é determinante para selecionar os autores mais próximos (ou similares), ou seja, as relações mais recentes tendem a ser mais relevantes que as relações mais antigas. Já a segunda técnica combinou o resultados das diferentes técnicas implementadas (tanto a proposta quanto técnicas da literatura correlata) para gerar novas recomendações de maneira híbrida. Os resultados mostraram que a solução baseada no tempo apresentou resultados superiores às estratégias correlatas quando se possui mais informações sobre o autor, ou seja, autores que possuem diversas relações de coautoria e um conjunto de artigos citados elevado tendem a obter resultados melhores quando comparados aos autores que possuem poucas relações e citaram poucos artigos. Já a solução híbrida, que combina os resultados dos diversos recomendadores, apresentou uma cobertura de recomendações superior às demais, pelo fato de combinar os pontos fortes de cada uma das técnicas, encontrando recomendações relevantes no conjunto de testes em mais de 57% dos casos / Recommender systems are becoming indispensable tools on websites, in order to offer a simplified and personalized experience to their users, and its adoption is due to the fact that the volume of data available has increased and also comes from different sources with different types of information. Thus, it is challenge and necessary tools for helping to extract more valuable information from these data. The arise of online social networks allowed users to express their tastes and preferences and establish relationships with other users, such as friends, relatives, idols, etc. Those possibilities found in social networks motivated this work to interpret the scientific community as a social network, providing the ability to use co-authorship relations, collaboration in projects, tutoring relations, as well as paper citations and thus citations from their authors. The goal of this project was to propose a papers recommender system combining social and bibliometric information, regarding cited articles on published papers, being characterized as a facilitator to help researchers to answer questions such as: \"What interesting articles in my area I still have no knowledge of?\" and \"Which articles can assist in the project I am developing?\". The first algorithm proposed used the time when the coauthorship relations among authors were established as a determining parameter to choose which authors are more similar, meaning that relations established in recent time are more relevant than those that are older. The second algorithm combines the results from different implemented algorithms to determine which would be the ideal weight of each algorithm on the recommendation result, using a linear regression on the recommendations scores. The results showed that the time based solution achieved a better performance for the authors with higher amount of information available, i.e., if the author has many coauthorship relations and cited many papers, the results are better when compared with authors that does not have many relations and cited articles. On the other hand, the hybrid solution which combines the results from different recommendations approaches presented a higher coverage compared with others, due to the fact that it combines the strengths of each one of the algorithms, finding recommendation for users on 57% of the cases.
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O acompanhamento dos estágios curriculares supervisionados por meio do Facebook: uma ferramenta midiática na formação do docente da área de LetrasMartins, Valéria Bussola 03 April 2014 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2014-04-03 / Teacher s formation is a theme that appears more and more frequently as the number of young people who choose to work in the educational field decays. Low salaries, bad work conditions, exhaustive workweek, low social esteem and bad discipline from the students have contributed with this lower and lower number of graduation students in the educational area. Moreover, when the Modern Languages students have to carry out the curriculum supervised internship in order to receive the license to teach, they are discouraged. The teachers who work in the Elementary School do not encourage their probationers to enter the field or exercise the profession. It was from this discouraging Brazilian educational context that the idea for this thesis came up. The objective of the present work is to reflect the probationer s role in the formation of the Modern Languages professional. Thus, it is proposed to investigate how is the internship regulated, how it occurs and how it is oriented by the teachers in the formation institutions as well as in the Basic Education institutions, how it interferes in the teachers formation and whether or not it may germinate the liking of the educator profession in the Modern Languages students. This thesis is the result of a professional experience facing teacher s formation, then, it also intends to offer the Modern Languages graduation teachers a more attractive and meaningful alternative for accompanying the internships. The described experience is the one about accompanying the internships through a social network: Facebook, which allowed the students to express themselves in a more dynamic way, emphasizing the constant possibility of a collective reflection according as all the students accompanied their colleagues internships. Lastly, we ponder about the need of rethinking the graduation courses for Portuguese language teachers, of changing the idea and the way the internships are carried out and how important it is the constant updating of the teachers who form other teachers. / A formação de professores vem à tona com uma frequência cada vez maior na medida em que diminui o número de jovens que escolhem exercer sua atividade profissional na área da educação. Baixos salários, péssimas condições de trabalho, jornada semanal exaustiva, baixa estima social e indisciplina por parte dos alunos têm contribuído para que o número de discentes nos cursos de Licenciatura diminua. Ademais, no início da formação, o graduando já enfrenta dificuldades. Quando tem de cumprir o estágio curricular supervisionado para receber a habilitação para ministrar aulas, o licenciando é desestimulado na medida em que muitos professores que atuam na Educação Básica não encorajam os estagiários a entrar na profissão. Foi a partir desse desanimador contexto educacional brasileiro que surgiu a prática geradora desta tese. Este trabalho objetiva refletir sobre o papel do estágio curricular supervisionado na formação do profissional da área de Letras. Propõe-se, dessa forma, averiguar como o estágio está regulamentado, como transcorre, como é orientado pelos professores nas instituições formadores e nas instituições da Educação Básica, como interfere na formação docente e se ele pode fazer germinar nos graduandos o gosto pela profissão de educador. Sendo fruto de uma experiência profissional voltada para a formação docente, esta tese busca, também, oferecer aos professores da Licenciatura em Letras uma alternativa mais atraente e significativa de acompanhamento para os estágios. Para tanto, é descrita a experiência de se acompanhar os estágios por meio de uma rede social: o Facebook, que permitiu que os alunos expressassem-se de uma forma muito mais dinâmica, ressaltando a constante possibilidade de reflexão grupal já que todos os alunos acompanharam os estágios dos colegas. Por fim, pondera-se sobre a necessidade de se repensar os cursos de formação dos docentes de Língua Portuguesa, de se alterar os objetivos e a forma de execução dos estágios supervisionados e a importância da constante atualização também dos professores que formam outros docentes.
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Proposta de modelo netnográfico como método de pesquisa / Proposal of netnographic model as method of researchMoura, Vagner Aparecido de 17 October 2014 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2014-10-17 / Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico / The current aim of this study is to discuss, from Historical and Anthropological perspective the
racial relationship in Brazil and in the United States of America, the influence of memory in
the subjectivation process of the social actors: Afro-American and Afro-Brazilian and the role
of influence of the digital media in this process. To emphasize the understanding of the digital
media, the reader must be attentive to the fact that digital media refer to a moving space, hybrid,
which is composed by relationship between eletronic space and physical space. This space is
where the process of subjectivation of the social actors brings back the discussion of
corporeality, of image, of the place and no place of the social actor and otherness in the modern
world.
Being aware of this context and complexity, I have elaborated, during my study of doctorate, a
proposal of netnographic anchored in the following procedures: Entrée: the netnographic
exploratory journey is based on phenomenological categories of Merleau-Ponty (1999): préreflexive,
intersubjectivity, body language and symbolic in order to get the first impressions
and data of the sites checked to introduce to my reader how to set up subjectivity process of
social actor and the second procedure Analysis and interpretation of data corresponds to a triad
model which is composed by four categories: Territoriality, Psyche (Freud), Semiotic (Peirce)
and Psyche (Lacan) each of these categories is composed by three phases in order to not only
denude the role of image, of language and of discourse on the virtual social networks, but also
corroborate the netnographic journey of the first procedure of the netnographic model (Entrée)
or introduce new paths/directions for the processing of the subjectivation of the social actors / O presente estudo tem como finalidade discutir, sob a perspectiva história e antropológica as
relações raciais no Brasil e nos Estados Unidos da América, a influência da memória no
processo de subjetivação dos atores sociais: afro-brasileiros e afro-americanos e o papel e a
influência das mídias digitais neste processo. Ressalta-se que para compreender as mídias
digitais, deve-se estar atento ao fato de que as mídias digitais correspondem um espaço
movente, híbrido, constituído pela relação entre o espaço eletrônico e o espaço físico, lócus em
que o processo de subjetivação dos atores sociais traz, à baila, a discussão da corporalidade, da
imagem, do lugar e do não lugar do sujeito e da alteridade na pós-modernidade.
Sendo anuente desse contexto e de sua complexidade, elaborei, durante o estudo de
doutoramento, uma proposta de modelo netnográfico ancorado nos seguintes procedimentos:
Entrée: percurso netnográfico exploratório com base nas categorias fenomenológica de
Merleau-Ponty (1999): pré-reflexivo do cogito, intersubjetividade, corpo, linguagem e o
simbólico com a finalidade de obter as primeiras impressões e dados dos sítios
observados/experimentados e, assim, apresentar ao meu coenunciador como se configura o
processo de subjetivação dos atores sociais e o segundo procedimento a Análise e a
interpretação de dados corresponde a um modelo triádico composto por quatro categorias:
Territorialidade, Psiquismo (Freudiano), Semiótica (Peirce) e Psiquismo (Lacaniano) cada uma
destas categorias é constituída por três fases com fulcro não só em descortinar o papel da
imagem, da linguagem e do discurso nas redes sociais virtuais, como também corroborar o
percurso netnográfico do primeiro procedimento do modelo netnográfico (Entrée) ou apresentar
novas pistas sobre processo de subjetivação dos atores sociais
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A gestão de identidade dos sujeitos nos sites de redes sociais Facebook e LinkedInSardá, Thais de Oliveira January 2015 (has links)
Esta dissertação tem por objetivo compreender a gestão de identidade de sujeitos em dois sites de redes sociais, Facebook e LinkedIn, simultaneamente. Em um contexto no qual as interações pessoais e profissionais ocorrem também online, discute-se quais as motivações e as estratégias para a representação social nesses espaços. Por isso, realizou-se uma revisão teórica de conceitos ligados a sites de redes sociais, representação social, performance, gestão de identidade e visibilidade. No estudo de caso, utilizou-se como técnicas de pesquisa observação não participante, análise de conteúdo e entrevista em profundidade, com o intuito de identificar não só as estratégias dos sujeitos enquanto se apresentam às respectivas redes de contatos, mas também como as affordances dos sites os conduzem nesses comportamentos. Para tanto, procurou-se analisar os posts e os perfis de 10 profissionais de Tecnologia da Informação (TI) no Facebook e no LinkedIn, por um período de dois meses típicos. Ao ampliar a discussão sobre o tema e apresentar os resultados, conclui-se que a gestão de identidade em sites de redes sociais nesse grupo é traduzida em pelo menos 15 estratégias conscientes durante o uso das redes: criar perfis em sites de redes sociais diferentes; buscar uma estratégia de autoapresentação para cada site; escolher uma foto para cada site; manter uma postura diferente em cada site; formar redes de contatos distintas; estabelecer uma autocensura sobre os conteúdos postados; medir as palavras antes de publicar um post; tentar presumir o que a audiência irá pensar sobre os posts; expor mais ou menos a vida pessoal conforme o site; entender os sites enquanto espaços de exibição; manter uma expectativa sobre as interações nos posts; controlar o tempo nas redes sociais; atualizar — ou não — os perfis; lidar conscientemente com as multiplicidades identitárias; e justificar sua postura pelas finalidades dos sites. / This study aims to understand the identity management of subjects in two social network sites simultaneously, Facebook and LinkedIn. In a context in which personal and professional interactions happen also online, this work discussed motivations and strategies for social representation in these spaces. Therefore, this thesis carried out a theoretical review of concepts related to social network sites, social representation, performance, identity management and visibility. The study used research techniques as non-participant observation, content analysis and depth interviews to identify strategies of the subjects when they present themselves to their networks and also how site's affordances are visible on these behaviors. Therefore, posts and profiles of 10 Information Technology professionals on Facebook and LinkedIn on two typical months were analyzed. To enlarge the discussion on the theme and present the results from this group, it is stated that identity management on social network sites results into strategies during the use of networks, like creating profiles on different social network sites; looking for a self-presentation strategy for each site; choosing different photos; mantaining a distinct posture at each site; form different networks; establishing self-censorship on posted content; mincing words before publishing a post; assuming what the audience will think about the posts; exposing personal life in different ways; understanding the sites as exhibition spaces; keeping an expectation about interactions in the posts; tracking time on social networks; updating — or not — the profiles; consciously dealing with the identity multiplicities; and justifying their stance by the purposes of the sites.
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Dynamiques infocommunicationnelles d’une communauté connectée : une analyse des formes socioculturelles de la diaspora malgache présente sur Facebook. / Infocommunicational dynamics of a connected community : sociocultural analysis of the malagasy diaspora on Facebook.Rakotoary, Sarah 07 December 2018 (has links)
Ce travail de recherche porte sur l’étude des pratiques infocommunicationnelles des diasporas malgaches connectées. Celles-ci se distinguent par leurs usages des réseaux socionumériques notamment dans la perspective d’entretenir des relations particulières avec leur pays d’origine mais aussi avec leur pays d’accueil. La diaspora malgache est largement présente sur un dispositif technique particulier qui est le réseau socionumérique Facebook où des formes de socialisations en ligne se manifestent. Certains membres des diasporas malgaches éparpillées dans le monde se retrouvent sur des groupes pour échanger, informer, ou tout simplement rester en contact. Ces groupes sont devenus le véritable reflet de pratiques sociales connectées à travers des échanges en ligne, et par la suite hors ligne grâce à l’organisation de rencontres. Notre question de recherche se réfère ainsi au processus d’appropriation sociale du dispositif technique que représente le réseau socionumérique. En outre, si les échanges qui se mettent en place au sein du dispositif technique permettent de mettre à jour la présence de formes socioculturelles ; il s’agit de déterminer en quoi la prégnance et la circulation de ces formes qu’elles soient en ligne ou hors ligne tendent à formaliser la construction d’une communauté connectée. Cette thèse propose ainsi de réfléchir sur le processus d’ancrage social du dispositif technique au sein d’une communauté transnationale, tout en questionnant la réalité technique du dispositif au regard des traces sociales laissées par ses usagers. / This research focuses on the infocommunicationnal practices of Malagasy connected diaspora. Indeed its uses of social networks are characterised by their need to maintain relationships with their home country but also with their host country. Malagasy diaspora has clearly invested a social network which is Facebook, where online forms of socialisation appear. Some members of the worldwide malagasy diaspora join Facebook groups in order to exchange, to inform or to keep in touch. These groups become a true reflect of online and offline social practices. Our research is about the understanding of the social appropriation process of the social network considered as a sociotechnical device. The social network supports sociocultural forms ; our work aims at identifying how these online and offline forms allow the construction of a connected community. The aim of this thesis is to explore the « social anchoring » of a technical device in a transnational community, and to understand its technical reality regarding social marks produced by users.
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Social media and campaigning : the challenges and opportunities of incorporating social media into existing anti-airport expansion campaignsRowe, Andrew January 2017 (has links)
Social media has created new protest spaces and has enabled people to do things differently. The focus of the research is on campaign groups, created before social media was used as a tool for protest. It has been undertaken to achieve the aim of the challenges and opportunities of incorporating new forms of social media into existing protest campaigns through a case study of anti-airport expansion groups in the UK. Social media data was obtained from three anti-airport expansion groups which included the extraction of approximately 9,000 tweets and 8,000 Facebook posts. The data were then analysed using social network analysis, time series analysis and semi-structured interviews. The results of social network analysis and time series analysis informed the development of the questions directed at the social media coordinators of each group. The main findings are that Airport Watch and HACAN Clearskies exhibit very similar Twitter networks and favour interaction with the media, similar anti-airport expansion groups and also pro-airport expansion groups. Transition Heathrow demonstrates more varied interaction patterns. All groups dominate their respective Facebook page and group networks apart from HACAN Clearskies which has non-assigned leaders controlling information dissemination in the group. Time series analysis uncovered variations in social media usage; overall for all three campaign groups Twitter was utilised more than Facebook.
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A vivência do aleitamento materno em um contexto de situação de violência por parceiro íntimo e a rede de suporte social / The experience of breastfeeding in a context of intimate partner violence (IPV) and the social support networkBaraldi, Nayara Girardi 14 August 2017 (has links)
Este estudo teve como objetivo compreender o significado que mulheres em situação de VPI atribuem à sua experiência de amamentar e à rede de suporte social. Trata-se de estudo qualitativo, que teve como referenciais teóricos a Dominação Masculina e o Poder Simbólico, de Pierre Bourdieu, e a Rede de Suporte Social, de Sluzki; em relação à metodologia, os dados foram tratados por meio do Método da Interpretação dos Sentidos. Participaram do estudo 21 puérperas, que se encontravam em situação de VPI em uma das fases do ciclo gravídico-puerperal e que tinham, no mínimo, 180 dias de pós-parto. Foi obtida, por meio de entrevista, a condição sociodemográfica, econômica, familiar e da VPI. E as questões norteadoras sobre a experiência de amamentar e da VPI deram origem aos dados qualitativos. Pautou-se a estruturação da rede através da construção do Diagrama de Escolta Social. As participantes tinham entre 17 e 23 anos, apresentavam tempo de estudo médio de 9.9 anos, e 12 participantes consideraram que o companheiro controlava sua vida. Quanto à VPI na gestação, 9 participantes sofreram algum tipo de violência, enquanto que, no período puerperal, esse número subiu para 19. Sobre o AM, apenas uma seguiu em AM exclusivo até o sexto mês. Em relação à estrutura da rede, a menor contou com 3 membros, e a maior, com 10. Os relatos obtidos originaram três categorias temáticas: \"Percepção da violência no contexto de vida da mulher\", \"A violência por parceiro íntimo e as repercussões no aleitamento materno e na criança\" e a \"A estrutura e o contexto da rede de suporte social interpessoal e institucional frente à amamentação e a violência por parceiro íntimo\". Na primeira categoria, visualizou-se o ciclo da violência, a qual repercutia em sentimentos de vergonha e inferioridade, assim como em transtornos psicológicos nessas participantes. Houve manutenção da violência simbólica e a expectativa da transformação do parceiro. Os enfrentamentos frente à VPI estiveram atrelados à vontade de afastar o filho desta violência, à busca de melhores condições econômicas, assim como à denúncia do agressor. Na segunda categoria, evidenciou-se a desmotivação em amamentar devido às brigas. Relataram-se reflexos sobre a criança, como choro, dificuldades no sono e afastamento do pai. Frente ao manejo do AM, perceberam-se as dificuldades iniciais e a falta de compreensão por parte do parceiro. Na última categoria, observou-se que a rede de suporte interpessoal era composta mais por elementos femininos e que já tinham experiência com o ciclo gravídico puerperal, enquanto o companheiro foi pouco citado. Percebeu-se que a rede interpessoal era mais acessada pela participante do que a institucional, e isso ocorreu devido à falta de vinculação e à fragmentação do cuidado, que exigia da participante uma peregrinação entre os serviços institucionais, causada pela ausência de uma rede fortalecida. Diante dos achados, propõe-se maior visualização da temática no meio acadêmico, no âmbito da saúde e também no meio relacional dessas mulheres, a fim de auxiliar, fortalecer e agir para um cuidado integral, possibilitando-lhes que rompam o ciclo da VPI e consigam estabelecer melhores índices de AM / This study aimed to understand the meaning that women in IPV situation attribute to their experience of breastfeeding and to the social support network. It is a qualitative study, whose theoretical references were Male Dominance and Symbolic Power, by Pierre Bourdieu, and the Social Support Network, by Sluzki. Regarding to the methodology, data were worked using the Method of Sense Interpretation. The participants of the study were twenty-one postpartum women in IPV situation during one of the phases of the pregnancy-puerperal cycle and who had at least 180 days postpartum. The sociodemographic, economic, family and IPV conditions were obtained through interviews. The qualitative data emerged from the guiding questions about the experience of breastfeeding and the IPV. The structuring of the network was guided by the construction of the Social Escort Diagram. Participants were between 17 and 23 years old with 9.9 years of study on average; 12 participants considered that the partner controlled their life. Regarding IPV during pregnancy, 9 participants suffered some type of violence while, in the puerperal period, this number increased to 19. About breastfeeding, only one had exclusive breastfeeding for six months. Regarding the structure of the network, the smallest had three members and the biggest had ten. The reports obtained originated three thematic categories: \"Perception of violence in the context of the woman\'s life\", \"Intimate partner violence and the repercussions on breastfeeding and on the child\", and \"The structure and context of the interpersonal and institutional social support network in the face of breastfeeding and intimate partner violence.\" In the first category the cycle of violence was visualized, which had repercussions on feelings of shame and inferiority as well as psychological disorders. Symbolic violence was maintained and there was expectation of partner\'s change. The confrontation related to IPV was linked to the desire to remove the child from this violence, the search for better economic conditions as well as the accusation of the aggressor. In the second category, the lack of motivation in breastfeeding due to fights was evidenced. Reactions of the child such as crying, difficulties in sleep and estrangement from the father were reported. Considering the management of breastfeeding, it was noticed the initial difficulties and the lack of understanding from the partner. In the last category, it was observed that the interpersonal support network was more composed of female elements that had experience with the puerperal gravid cycle, while the partner was less mentioned. It was also noticed that the interpersonal network was more accessed by the participant than the institutional network, and this was due to the lack of connection and fragmentation of the care, which required the participant to go to different institutional services caused by the lack of a strong network. In view of the findings, it is proposed a greater focus on this theme in the academic environment and in the relational environment of these women, in order to assist, strengthen and act for a comprehensive care, enabling them to break the cycle of IPV and achieve better breastfeeding rates
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Data Driven Inference in Populations of AgentsJanuary 2019 (has links)
abstract: In the artificial intelligence literature, three forms of reasoning are commonly employed to understand agent behavior: inductive, deductive, and abductive. More recently, data-driven approaches leveraging ideas such as machine learning, data mining, and social network analysis have gained popularity. While data-driven variants of the aforementioned forms of reasoning have been applied separately, there is little work on how data-driven approaches across all three forms relate and lend themselves to practical applications. Given an agent behavior and the percept sequence, how one can identify a specific outcome such as the likeliest explanation? To address real-world problems, it is vital to understand the different types of reasonings which can lead to better data-driven inference.
This dissertation has laid the groundwork for studying these relationships and applying them to three real-world problems. In criminal modeling, inductive and deductive reasonings are applied to early prediction of violent criminal gang members. To address this problem the features derived from the co-arrestee social network as well as geographical and temporal features are leveraged. Then, a data-driven variant of geospatial abductive inference is studied in missing person problem to locate the missing person. Finally, induction and abduction reasonings are studied for identifying pathogenic accounts of a cascade in social networks. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Computer Science 2019
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FINDING THE LINK BETWEEN SOCIAL CONNECTIVITY AND DIETARY INTAKE AMONG RURAL ADOLESCENTS IN NORTH CAROLINA AND KENTUCKYMcDonald, Jordan Elizabeth 01 January 2017 (has links)
Social networks play a significant role in adolescent decision making, specifically when it comes to dietary outcomes. This study, granted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), assessed the connectivity of these social networks and the impact they have on fruit and vegetable, added sugar and sugar sweetened beverage consumption. Additionally, the relationship between shopping companionship and dietary choices was studied. Positive and negative associations were found among adolescents who shop with parents or friends. It was also found that those adolescents with greater social network cohesion were found to have more negative dietary outcomes. Divulging further into the relationships within adolescent social networks may improve fruit and vegetable and decrease added sugar consumption within rural communities.
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HOW FAR WILL YOU GO WHEN THERE IS AN EMBARGO?A STOCHASTIC ACTOR-ORIENTED MODEL OF THE EFFECTS OF ARMS EMBARGOS ON ILLICIT WEAPONS TRADEHagala, Jennifer A 01 June 2017 (has links)
The international community routinely implements embargoes in an effort to restrict the flow of small arms and light weapons into politically unstable regions. The effectiveness of sanctions fall into question when reports indicate that weapons continue to pour into embargoed territories. Using stochastic actor-based modeling, the current study investigates how shipment patterns change over time, and how trade patterns evolve in the presence of endogenous influences, such as embargoes, while controlling for corruption levels and national wealth (e.g., gross domestic product). The analysis here indicated that embargoes did have an effect in diverting illicit weapons trade through indirect ties. This was seen highest during the embargo implementation period and post embargo implementation period. The results stand to improve our understanding of this complex illegal global market and the role national control of corruption and gross domestic product play in the enforceability of these sanctions. In the final analysis what was discovered was that embargoes do effect change in the illegal arms trade network. This effect is seen in the form of indirect ties to end user countries. This suggests that improvements to policies and regulation on transshipment points need to be highly scrutinized.
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