Die studie vergelyk die prestasie van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie met die van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie binne die raamwerk van die arbitrasie-prysbepalingsteorie (APT) op die nywerheidsindeks van die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs (JA). Die periode van die studie is oor twee tydperke, naamlik Januarie 1970 tot September 1987 en Januarie 1989 tot Junie 1997. Die langtermyntendens van die nywerheidsindeks en APT-faktore is bepaal deur die beste nie-reglynige model vir elke tydreeks te vind. Reglynige meervoudige stapsgewyse regressie-ontleding is gebruik om die bewegings van die nywerheidsindeks rondom die langtermyntendens te voorspel. Die sloeringsreekse van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APT-faktore en die sloeringsreekse van die eerste-ordeverskiltelling van die langtermyntendensresidutelling is as moontlike voorspellers gebruik. Gegrond hierop is beslissingslyne ontwik:kel wat gebruik is vir die implementering van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie. Die resultate van die studie is die volgende: • Waar die sloeringsreekse van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APTfaktore as moontlike voorspellers gebruik is, is die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie 6, 41 persent en 0, 71 persent b6 die van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie vir tydperk een en twee onderskeidelik. • Waar die sloeringsreekse van die eerste-ordeverskiltelling van die langtermyntendensresidutelling van die APT-faktore as moontlike voorspellers gebruik is, is die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie 10,40 persent en 1,04 persent b6 die van 'n koop-enhou- strategie vir tydperk een en twee onderskeidelik. Die belangrikste gevolgtrekking van die studie is dat die APT en 'n tydsberekeningstrategie teoreties en prakties versoenbaar is op die JA. Aanbevelings vir toekomstige navorsing is die volgende: ( 1) sistematiese risikofaktore, anders as makro-ekonomiese faktore, behoort identifiseer te word wat die voorspellingswaarde van die faktore in die tweede tydperk van die studie kan verhoog; (2) elke stap van die model wat ontwikkel is, behoort op elke indeks van die JA toegepas te word om die risiko-aangepaste opbrengskoers van 'n tydsberekeningstrategie toegepas op elkeen van die indekse met die van 'n koop-en-hou-strategie te vergelyk; en (3) die invloed van transaksiekoste en dividende op die potensiele voordele van tydsberekening moet bepaal word. / The study compares the performance of a buy-and-hold strategy with that of a markettiming strategy in the framework of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) applied to the industrial index of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). The study period is divided into two parts, namely January 1970 to September 1987 and January 1989 to June 1997. The long-term trend of the industrial index and every APT factor is determined by finding the best nonlinear model for each time series. Linear multiple stepwise regression analysis, with the lagged time series of the long-term trend error terms of the APT factors, is used to forecast the movement of the industrial index around its long-term trend. Decision lines were developed to implement a market-timing strategy. The results of the study are as follows: • Where the lagged time series of the long-term trend error terms of the APT factors were used as possible predictors, the risk-adjusted return of a markettiming strategy was 6, 41 percent and 0, 71 percent higher than that of a buyand- hold strategy for periods one and two respectively. • Where the lagged time series of the first-order difference of the long-term trend error term of the APT factors were used as possible predictors, the riskadjusted return of the market-timing strategy was 10,40 percent and 1,04 percent higher than that of a buy-and-hold strategy for periods one and two respectively. The main conclusion of the study is that the APT and a market-timing strategy are theoretically and practically reconcilable on the JSE. The main recommendations of the study are the following: (1) systematic risk factors, other than macroeconomic factors, should be identified in order to increase the forecasting value of these factors in the second period of the study; (2) each step of the model developed in this study should be repeated on every index of the JSE; and (3) the influence of transaction costs and dividends on the potential benefits of a market-timing strategy should be determined. / Business Management / DCom (Sakebestuur)

The study investigates whether the main capital market theories and pricing models provide a reasonably accurate description of the working and efficiency of capital markets, of the pricing of shares and options and the effect the risk/return relationship has on investor behaviour. The capital market theories and pricing models included in the study are Portfolio Theory, the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT), Options Theory and the BlackScholes (8-S) Option Pricing Model. The main conclusion of the study is that the main capital market theories and pricing models, as reviewed in the study, do provide a reasonably accurate description of reality, but a number of anomalies and controversial issues still need to be resolved. The main recommendation of the study is that research into these theories and models should continue unabated, while the specific recommendations in a South African context are the following: ( 1) the benefits of global diversification for South African investors should continue to be investigated; (2) the level and degree of efficiency of the JSE Securities Exchange SA (JSE) should continue to be monitored, and it should be established whether alternative theories to the EMH provide complementary or better descriptions of the efficiency of the South African market; (3) both the CAPM and the APT should continue to be tested, both individually and jointly, in order to better understand the pricing mechanism of, and risk/return relationship on the JSE; (4) much South African research still needs to be conducted on the efficiency of the relatively new options market and the application of the B-S Option Pricing Model under South African conditions. / Financial Accounting / M. Com. (Accounting)

Rapid economic development and urban expansion of the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) places pressure on biomes and communities alike. In a world suffering from the increasing effects of climate change, unchecked urbanisation comes at the expense of carbon sequestrating environments. The modernisation, concretisation and gentrification of this low-lying, deltaic, monsoonal metropolis has seen its traditional, water-based urban morphology replaced with a solid state of perception, parallel to a loss of flood mitigating infrastructure. As the metropolis’ boundaries expand into its hinterlands, agriculturally productive land is being converted to residential, commercial and industrial development and the fate of low-income urban populations and farmers lies in the hands of speculators hoping to capitalise on increasing land values. Combatting this backdrop of neoliberal urbanisation is legislative framework intended to prevent speculation, yet it results in additional ecological damage as landowners clear natural-growth forests and mangroves to meet tax-reducing criterium. The purpose of this thesis is to examine the reasons behind and consequences of under-regulated urbanisation and gentrification and the effects this has had on the vulnerable ecology and communities of the BMR. It provides lessons on how previous short sighted and poor development regulations will have enduring social and environmental consequences long into the future and how adoption of traditional morphological ways-of-life and legislative amendments can limit further damage. The legacy of neoliberal urban development resulting in gentrification and underpinned by conflicting local planning laws are analysed and supported by various theoretical materials, field studies and interviews.

Face à l’instabilité des cours agricoles et à ses conséquences notamment pour les pays en développement, la première partie de cette thèse est consacrée à la présentation des déterminants des cours des matières premières alimentaires, incluant les évolutions récentes en matière d’offre, en tenant compte des conséquences du réchauffement climatique, et de demande, considérant notamment les biocarburants. Il est également question de présenter la financiarisation en cours des économies, et les doutes qui planent sur le rôle que peuvent avoir la spéculation sur les marchés à terme ou encore la mise en œuvre des politiques monétaires, sur les cours au comptant observés sur les marchés physiques des produits agricoles. Suite aux réflexions et éléments de littérature avancés, la seconde partie procède de deux études empiriques. La première est axée sur l’impact de la spéculation sur les marchés financiers à terme sur le cours des sous-jacents (agricoles), alors que la seconde questionne le rôle des marchés monétaires, abordé à travers la capacité du banquier central à stabiliser les taux d’intérêt à court terme. Sur cette base, des conclusions mais également des pistes de recherche sont établies, du fait du prolongement en cours du processus de financiarisation des économies. / Faced with instability of agricultural commodities’ prices and its consequences especially for developing countries, the first part of this thesis is devoted to the presentation of food commodities’ prices, including recent developments with respect to the offering, taking into account the consequences of global warming and demand, as well as the importance of biofuels. It is also question to present the financialization of economies, and the doubts that take over the role of speculation on the futures markets or the implementation of monetary policies, on the spot prices observed on physical agricultural commodities markets. Following the advanced literature reflections and elements, the second part proceeds of two empirical studies, the first one focused on the impact of speculation about the financial futures markets on the underlying asset’s price (agricultural), while the second one examines the role of money markets through the capacities of the central banker to stabilize short-term interest rates. On this basis, conclusions but also future research are established due to the continuation of the economies financialization process.

Né en 1727 à Briançon, Jean-Antoine Morand a 14 ans lorsqu’il se lance, suite à la mort de son père, dans une carrière artistique. C’est à Lyon qu’il s’installe et fonde, en 1748, un atelier de peinture. Il reçoit des commandes officielles et privées, travaille régulièrement pour la Comédie, se spécialise dans la peinture en trompe-l’œil et la scénographie, y compris les machines de théâtre. À la fin des années 1750, encouragé par Soufflot, il se tourne vers l’architecture et l’embellissement, ainsi que l’y disposent différents aspects de sa première carrière.Architecte autodidacte, Morand souffre d’un déficit de légitimité et tente d’y remédier en recherchant la reconnaissance publique. Mais ses succès, en particulier la construction à titre privé d’un pont sur le Rhône, n’y suffisent pas. La carrière de Morand est tiraillée entre fierté entrepreneuriale et appétence institutionnelle. Son image pâtit de l’opposition entre spéculation foncière et promotion du bien public. Cela concerne en particulier son grand œuvre, un projet d’agrandissement de Lyon sur la rive gauche du Rhône, compris dans un plan général donnant à la ville la forme circulaire.Morand a peu construit et il ne subsiste presque rien de son œuvre pictural. On dispose en revanche d’un fonds d’archives privé d’une grande richesse, sur lequel s’appuie cette thèse, afin de mettre au jour les intentions, les relations et la psychologie d’un architecte autrement méconnu. / Born in 1727, Jean-Antoine Morand is 14 years old when he embraces an artistic career, following his father’s death. Having settled down in Lyon, he establishes his own painter’s workshop in 1748. Receiving public and private commissions and working for the theatre on a regular basis, he specializes in trompe l’œil painting and stage-setting, including machinery. In the late 1750s, spurred on by Soufflot, he turns to architecture and city-planning, as various aspects of his previous career could have prompted him to.As an autodidactic architect, Morand suffers from a lack of legitimacy against which he pursues public recognition. But his successes, which include the building of a privately-owned bridge across the Rhône, aren’t enough. Morand’s career is torn between entrepreneurial pride and his longing for tenure. His public image is marred by the alleged opposition between land speculation and the defense of public good. This concerns mostly his great work, a project for the extension of Lyon on the left bank of the Rhône, included in a circular general city plan.Morand hasn’t built much and very little remains of his pictorial work. This thesis is based on an extensive private archive that allows us to explore this otherwise unsung architect’s intentions, relations and psychology.

Depuis la succession des récentes crises financières, les « dérivés de crédit » connaissent une notoriété médiatique très intense qui dépasse la seule sphère des spécialistes. Créés au début des années 1990, ils sont des instruments financiers de transfert du risque de crédit. Ils autorisent tant la protection que la spéculation. Ils sont juridiquement documentés par des conventions-Cadres proposées par l’International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), et dans une très petite mesure, par la Fédération Bancaire Française en France. Ils regroupent cinq grandes catégories de contrat : « credit default swap » ou « contrat d’échange sur le risque de crédit », « credit linked notes » ou « dérivé de crédit titrisé », « credit spread option » ou « option sur écart de taux », « credit spread forward » ou « dérivé sur écart de taux » et « total rate of return swap » ou « dérivé de transfert total de rendement ». La nature et la diversité des « dérivés de crédit » posent depuis toujours de sérieuses difficultés de qualification dans de nombreux pays. En droit français, si une qualification commune semble émerger, celle d’instrument financier, elle est hélas insuffisante à apporter un régime juridique complet. Un travail complémentaire de qualification est indispensable pour chaque contrat membre des « dérivés de crédit ». / Nowadays, since financial crisis, « credit derivatives » are famous. Born in 1990’s, they transfer the credit risk. They are speculation’s instrument or margin’s instrument. International Swaps and Derivatives Association (ISDA), and the Fédération Bancaire Française (in France), point to pattern juridical agreement. Credit derivatives include five big sort of agreement : « credit default swap » (« contrat d’échange sur le risque de crédit »), « credit linked notes » (« dérivé de crédit titrisé »), « credit spread option » (« option sur écart de taux »), « credit spread forward » (« dérivé sur écart de taux ») and « total rate of return swap » (« dérivé de transfert total de rendement »). Their variety and essence ask difficult question of juridical appreciation in many countries. In French law, credit derivatives are « instrument financier ». But this juridical appreciation is incomplete. Every sort of agreement must being individually studies.

For over two hundred years, historians have debated the historical importance of early Tennessee migrants in shaping the state’s history. These discussions center around North Carolina's impact compared to Virginia's. By shifting discourse to the retention of migrant mentalities, the overwhelming influence of Virginia emerges through the continuity of privilege and commodification schemata. This study employs an interdisciplinary methodological approach combining schema theory, memory studies, and material culture analysis to outline the retention of mentalities from Tidewater, Virginia, to East Tennessee during the early settlement period. By utilizing the case study of John Carter of Watauga (1728-1781), the research illustrates how Virginian origins shaped settlers’ perceptions of privilege through inheritance, ordered society, and models of success, as well as commodification through ownership, resource extraction, and speculation. Findings reveal that Virginian mental frameworks were foundational paradigms, guiding settlers’ actions and perpetuating hierarchical structures within Tennessee society. Despite the opportunity for deviation that migration and community establishment provided, elite settlers chose to assimilate and reestablish the dominant position of Virginian schemata within their new environment. The persistence of Virginian schemata in Tennessee informs broader questions of identity formation, migrant nostalgia, and the enduring legacy of colonial mentalities in shaping American history.