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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
391

Invazivní metody v prenatální péči z pohledu ošetřovatelství z využitím systémů NANDA, NIC a NOC / Invasive methods of prenatal care from the perspective of nursing, using the system NANDA, NIC and NOC.

ŠTEFKOVÁ, Karin January 2015 (has links)
In this thesis, we deal with the issue of invasive methods of prenatal care from a nursing perspective using standardized classification schemes NANDA, NIC and NOC, which offer many opportunities to streamline, simplify and improve the care of women who undergo invasive procedures. The theoretical part is focused on screening in prenatal care, individual invasive methods and the most common congenital malformations of the child. Furthermore, standardized classification systems NANDA, NIC and NOC, which represent a common nursing language. The empirical part of the dissertation is processed using qualitative strategy. To collect data, we selected the following research methods: content analysis of documents, evaluation using Fehring's model. The first goal was to detect and identify the problems that women face after amniocentesis (AMC), chorionic villus sampling (CVS) and cordocentesis and second goal was to assess the applicability of selected issues of classification systems NANDA, NIC and NOC with Fehring's model of validation of nursing diagnoses. Using content analysis, we have selected three nursing diagnosis from the NANDA International Taxonomy II, from publication of Nursing Interventions clasification (NIC) 3 nursing interventions and from Nursing Outcomes Clasification (NOC) 4 expected results, which are focused on the respondents after invasive methods. From selected nursing diagnoses of NANDA, NIC interventions and NOC expected results, we have developed a research form, specific questionnaire we submitted to the validation by respondents. The survey was carried out from January to March 2015 in the polyclinic GENNET Ltd. - Centrum of Medical genetics and reproductive medicine and in a private clinic OG Medical Center Ltd. The sample consisted of 34 intentionally selected respondents who underwent amniocentesis, chorionic villus sampling, or cordocentesis. The outcome of this thesis is the basic concept of the nursing diagnosis, according to NANDA-I, NIC and NOC aimed at women after invasive methods for prenatal care. Research has shown that with the the vast majority of respondents significantly exhibited symptoms of fear and anxiety. In contrast, in terms of the respondents reported that the knowledge of the issue is sufficient. This result is influenced by the fact that respondents find a lot of information on the Internet, but that may not always be true. Unfortunately, the results showed that it is more a problem of communication and interest of the medical staff.
392

Testování žáků v německém jazyce na základní škole. / Testing of pupils in German language at basic school

KOSOBUD, Ondřej January 2013 (has links)
The main aim of this diploma thesis is to find out, if the level of knowledge of German language at pupils at basic schools in the Czech Republic is increasing, stagnating or decreasing and what factors influence their results. In the theoretic part I am going to deal with testing of pupils in Europe and in the Czech Republic. After that there is introduced a list of all standard assessment tests of German language on level A1 and A2. Then there are compared standard assessment tests ?Fit in Deutsch? and ?Start Deutsch? with the tests of Czech School Inspection from 2012/2013. In the research part I focus on the development of pupils? knowledge of German language at basic schools. The research is based on the assigned tests from 2007, 2010 and 2013. On the basis of these tests and filled questionnaires I am trying to find answers on the set research questions and to check correctness of the set hypotheses or alternatively to find other factors that influence pupils? knowledge of German language.
393

Management ošetřovatelské péče o fyziologického novorozence s využitím klasifikačních systémů NANDA, NIC a NOC / Management of Nursing Care for Newborn Using Classification Systems NANDA, NIC and NOC

MICHALOVÁ, Veronika January 2013 (has links)
We have dealt in this thesis with problems of nursing care of the newborn from the perspective of standardized classification systems NANDA, NIC and NOC which offer many opportunities for streamlining, simplifying and improving of the quality of care. The theoretical part of this thesis focuses on nursing care of physiological newborn during the first moments after the birth until leaving hospital. Furthermore, the common nursing language which is included in standardized classification systems NANDA, NIC and NOC.The empirical part of the thesis was prepared with the help of qualitative - quantitative strategy. We chose to collect valid data a research method of content analysis of documents, modelling, thought experiment and a structured interview. The first aim of the research was to identify the use file from various classification systems related to nursing care of physiological newborn. We selected 9 nursing diagnoses from the publication NANDA International Taxonomy II through content analysis, 9 nursing interventions from Nursing Interventions Classification (NIC), 5 expected results related to the care of physiological newborn from the publication Nursing Outcomes Classification (NOC). We worked out a research form and submitted it in the way of a specific questionnaire to the validation of respondents ? who were experts in the field of nursing care of the newborn, it was made from the selected NANDA nursing diagnoses, NIC interventions and expected results of NOC. The second aim was to verify the usability of the selected files from the classification systems NANDA, NIC and NOC in clinical practice. The results of validation of NANDA nursing diagnoses were done by Diagnostic Content Validity Model ? DCV by Fehring. We determined the absolute and relative frequency of their designation within classification systems NIC and NOC. Nurses working at neonatal wards were our basic research populations; we created a targeted selection of two research samples divided by educational attainment. The first research sample consisted of 20 nurses with university education. The second research group was represented by 18 nurses with secondary education. The survey was realised in the time from January to March 2013 in the neonatal wards of the Hospital České Budějovice, a.s. Hospital Strakonice, a.s., Hospital Písek, a.s. Our third aim was to determine the attitudes of neonatal nurses to usage of classification systems in daily practice. We focused questions directed to the respondents on the knowledge and source of acquired knowledge, their attitude and possible reasons preventing the implementation of classification systems into clinical practice. The results showed nurses are reluctant to the usage and implementation of new standardized classification systems into clinical practice. The output of this thesis is the basic concept of nursing diagnosis according to NANDA-I, NIC and NOC focused on nursing care of physiological new-born in the area of the Czech Republic. 12 NANDA nursing diagnoses taxonomies was verified with 128 characteristics, 9 NIC nursing intervention taxonomies with 183 activities and 5 results of NOC nursing care with 72 areas of evaluation. There was selected in this survey 100 characteristics of NANDA taxonomy (62 %). It was chosen as being applicable in practice 130 from 9 selected files of NIC (71 %). It was selected 39 indicators (54 %) within 5 files of expected NOC results. The survey brought a lot of interesting information and also revealed even the lacks in the area of nursing care of physiological new-born; research also showed the lack in the area of nursing care of physiological newborn.
394

The Relationship between Selected Standardized Test Scores and Performance in Advanced Placement Math and Science Exams: Analyzing the Differential Effectiveness of Scores for Course Identification and Placement

Urbina, Josue N 10 March 2014 (has links)
There is a national need to increase the STEM-related workforce. Among factors leading towards STEM careers include the number of advanced high school mathematics and science courses students complete. Florida’s enrollment patterns in STEM-related Advanced Placement (AP) courses, however, reveal that only a small percentage of students enroll into these classes. Therefore, screening tools are needed to find more students for these courses, who are academically ready, yet have not been identified. The purpose of this study was to investigate the extent to which scores from a national standardized test, Preliminary Scholastic Assessment Test/ National Merit Qualifying Test (PSAT/NMSQT), in conjunction with and compared to a state-mandated standardized test, Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test (FCAT), are related to selected AP exam performance in Seminole County Public Schools. An ex post facto correlational study was conducted using 6,189 student records from the 2010 - 2012 academic years. Multiple regression analyses using simultaneous Full Model testing showed differential moderate to strong relationships between scores in eight of the nine AP courses (i.e., Biology, Environmental Science, Chemistry, Physics B, Physics C Electrical, Physics C Mechanical, Statistics, Calculus AB and BC) examined. For example, the significant unique contribution to overall variance in AP scores was a linear combination of PSAT Math (M), Critical Reading (CR) and FCAT Reading (R) for Biology and Environmental Science. Moderate relationships for Chemistry included a linear combination of PSAT M, W (Writing) and FCAT M; a combination of FCAT M and PSAT M was most significantly associated with Calculus AB performance. These findings have implications for both research and practice. FCAT scores, in conjunction with PSAT scores, can potentially be used for specific STEM-related AP courses, as part of a systematic approach towards AP course identification and placement. For courses with moderate to strong relationships, validation studies and development of expectancy tables, which estimate the probability of successful performance on these AP exams, are recommended. Also, findings established a need to examine other related research issues including, but not limited to, extensive longitudinal studies and analyses of other available or prospective standardized test scores.
395

Gerenciamento de resíduos de serviços de saúde em instituição de ensino e pesquisa em saúde: estudo de caso na Faculdade de Saúde Pública-USP / Management of residues from health services, educational institutions and research on health: Case study: Public Health Faculty USP, 2017

Nelly de Padua Salles Domingues 26 April 2017 (has links)
A obrigatoriedade e responsabilidade pelo gerenciamento de resíduos de serviços de saúde atribuídas a todo gerador é legitimada pelo impacto advindo da periculosidade dos mesmos à saúde humana e ao ambiente. Esse fato impõe que o gerador elabore seu plano de gerenciamento de resíduos e crie instrumentos de prevenção de acidentes e de gestão desses resíduos. Escolheu-se como objeto deste estudo a Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo, para análise do gerenciamento dos resíduos com foco, principalmente, na segurança ocupacional. O objetivo foi desenvolver modelo de Procedimento Operacional Padrão (POP), da geração ao descarte de cada grupo de resíduos gerados pelos laboratórios de ensino e pesquisa em saúde, na instituição estudada, como instrumento de gestão auxiliar e complementar ao respectivo plano de gerenciamento de resíduos de serviços de saúde, contemplando a normativa vigente relativa a resíduos, saúde, ambiente e segurança dos trabalhadores. O método envolveu a seleção de dois laboratórios para o estudo de caso, considerando os resíduos gerados. Para ambos foram realizados: a) identificação dos resíduos gerados e práticas utilizadas nas diferentes etapas do gerenciamento; e b) identificação dos riscos ocupacionais, por meio de revisão documental e entrevista com funcionários, com registro de campo e fotográfico. Os dados obtidos foram confrontados com a legislação e normas vigentes. Houve ainda participação em reuniões da Comissão de Gerenciamento de Resíduos e busca de informações junto a funcionários da instituição e do serviço de limpeza terceirizados. A análise possibilitou a proposição de um caderno contendo 11 POPs para 9 distintos tipos de RSS, para os resíduos gerados nos laboratórios estudados, que contempla todos os tipos de resíduos gerados nos diversos laboratórios da instituição, além de dois POPs adicionais que tratam um da segurança e saúde do trabalhador e outro das disposições gerais relativas ao gerenciamento dos RSS. O conjunto de POPs proposto agregou as exigências normativas de interface vigentes e padronizou as práticas, rotinas e procedimentos nas diversas etapas do gerenciamento interno. O resultado do estudo nos dois laboratórios mais complexos possibilitou a elaboração de um caderno contendo POPs a serem aplicados a todos os 18 laboratórios da instituição. Os procedimentos organizados em um POP institucional para o setor contribuirá para a qualidade no processo de gerenciamento para reduzir a descontinuidade de práticas advindas da rotatividade de funcionários e a minimização dos riscos ocupacionais, melhorando a saúde e segurança do trabalhador do setor / The obligation and responsibility for the waste management from health services by every generating entity are validated by the impact proceeding from their hazardous effects on human health as well as the environment. Consequently, there is a demand for the generating entity to create tools for both accident prevention and management of such residues. The object being chosen for such case study is Faculdade de Saúde Pública da Universidade de São Paulo (Public Health Faculty, USP) for the analysis of the management of such residues with main focus on occupational safety. The objective was to develop a model of Standardized Operational Procedure, SOP, from the phases of generation to discard of each of the groups of residues generated by educational and health research laboratories, in the institution studied, as a management tool aiming to aid, and complement the respective management plan of residues from health services, enforced by the law, which contemplates not only the obligations determined by the effective norm relative to the residues but also those relative to health, environment and safety of workers involved in the various phases of such management. The Method consisted on the selection of two laboratories in the institution studied, taking into account the residues they generated. For both laboratories it was carried out: a) identification of the residues generated and the practices used in the various phases of the management; and b) identification of the occupational risks, by means of documentation revision and queries with the personnel, with field and photographic records. The findings were compared with the legislation and effective norms. In addition, there were meetings with the participation of The Waste Management Committee and collection of information from the institution personnel and outsourced cleaning service workers. The analysis enabled the elaboration of a notebook which contains 11 SOPs for 9 distinctive types of RSS for the residues generated in the studied laboratories - which contemplate all the types of residues generated in several laboratories of the institution; as well as two additional SOPs, whereby one focuses on safety and workers health, and the other on the general dispositions relative to the management of RSSs. The set of proposed SOPs added the effective norm interface requirements and standardized the practices, routines and procedures in the various phases of the internal management. The result of the study in the two most complex laboratories enabled the elaboration of a notebook which contains SOPs to be applied in all 18 laboratories of the institution. The procedures organized in an institutional SOP for the sector will contribute to the quality in the management process in order to reduce the discontinuity of practices originated in the turnover of worker, as well as to the diminishing of occupational risks, improving the health and safety of the workers of the sector
396

Impactos de incentivos financeiros sobre o desempenho escolar: evidências do Programa Cartão Família Carioca / Impactos financeiros sobre o desempenho escolar: evidências do Programa Cartão Família Carioca

Oliveira, Rafael Garcia Borges de January 2013 (has links)
Submitted by Rafael Oliveira (rborges@fgvmail.br) on 2013-04-17T15:04:01Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Mestrado_Rafael_Garcia_Borges_de_Oliveira.pdf: 330686 bytes, checksum: 5d389963ae1a2cbb4177b94764202bc0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2013-04-26T18:53:09Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Mestrado_Rafael_Garcia_Borges_de_Oliveira.pdf: 330686 bytes, checksum: 5d389963ae1a2cbb4177b94764202bc0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-04-26T18:53:36Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Mestrado_Rafael_Garcia_Borges_de_Oliveira.pdf: 330686 bytes, checksum: 5d389963ae1a2cbb4177b94764202bc0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-12-17 / Este estudo avalia o programa Cartão Família Carioca (CFC), do município do Rio de Janeiro. Através de dados administrativos, estimamos o impacto dos incentivos introduzidos pelo CFC sobre a frequência e desempenho dos alunos em testes padronizados. Encontramos efeitos positivos sobre ciências e negativos para português, além de impacto no sentido de reduzir as faltas dos alunos participantes.
397

Dental composite properties evaluation : from experimental approaches to the prerequisite of a chewing bench / Évaluation des propriétés des composites dentaires : prérequis pour l’élaboration d'un banc de mastication

Abouelleil Sayed, Hazem 03 April 2017 (has links)
La littérature scientifique révèle que les résultats in vitro sur les matériaux dentaires ont une faible corrélation avec le comportement clinique. Les tests standardisés aux normes fournissent des informations précieuses et pertinentes sur les propriétés des matériaux dentaires, et permettent aussi de comparer les résultats de différents instituts. Cependant, le développement de nouveaux matériaux à partir de nouvelles formulations chimiques nécessite une amélioration des méthodes d'évaluation. Ce travail de recherche est réalisé dans le but d'approfondir les connaissances sur les méthodes d'évaluation des matériaux dentaires avant insertion dans la cavité buccale. Une grande importance a été donnée au choix des matériaux à tester ; nous nous sommes basés sur les dernières tendances actuelles et les derniers développements de composition de matériaux dentaires. La même importance a été donnée à des méthodes et des techniques d'essai au laboratoire ; leur corrélation avec les résultats cliniques a été mise en évidence. Les modifications apportées à la méthodologie de ces tests ont exploré davantage les aspects cachés des différentes interactions de paramètres. La caractérisation et l'évaluation des matériaux dentaires nécessitaient une meilleure compréhension de l'interaction entre les différentes propriétés pour expliquer le vieillissement des matériaux. Notre travail a consisté à combiner de nombreuses études pour répondre à ce sujet. Les études ont porté sur les propriétés mécaniques et physiques, le composite fibré et Bulk, les matériaux CAM CAD, les adhésifs dentaires, le choc thermique et le cyclage thermique, le bisphénol A. L'objectif final était de développer un simulateur oral qui permettrait la reproduction de différents paramètres chimiques, physiques et mécaniques de l'environnement buccal, permettant ainsi de combler l'écart entre les tests in vitro et in vivo de matériaux dentaires / Scientific literature reveals that in vitro results are poorly correlated to materials clinical behavior. ISO standardized testing provides valuable information about the dental materials properties, and enables result comparison between different institutes. Conversely, new materials chemistry and formulations requires improved methodology and testing methods. Throughout our studies included in this work, the main objective was to reach a more global knowledge of the way dental materials are evaluated before being inserted into the oral cavity. A great deal of emphasis was given to the choice of materials to be tested, and that it would represent the current trends in dental practice and the latest developments in material composition. Equal highlight was given to the choice of testing methodology and laboratory testing techniques and their correlation to the clinical outcome. The modifications made to the methodology of these tests explored further the concealed aspects of different parameter interactions. Dental materials characterization and assessment required more understanding about the interaction between different properties to explain material aging; our work was to combine numerous studies to answer this topic. The studies included mechanical and physical properties, bulk and fiber composite, CAD CAM block materials, dental resin adhesive, thermal shock and thermal cycling, Bisphenol A. The final objective was to develop an oral simulator that would enable the reproduction of different chemical, physical and mechanical parameters of the oral environment, thus permitting to bridge the gap between in vitro and in vivo testing of dental materials
398

Incidence, mortality, comorbidities, and treatment of bullous pemphigoid in Finland

Försti, A.-K. (Anna-Kaisa) 02 May 2017 (has links)
Abstract Bullous pemphigoid (BP) is an autoimmune skin disease predominantly found in elderly people, which causes blistering of the skin and severe itching. The incidence of BP reported by previous studies has varied greatly between 0.05 and 42.8 per 1 million persons per year. Higher incidences have been reported in Western Europe and the USA, while countries around the Mediterranean have reported lower rates. However, the epidemiology of BP has not previously been studied in any Scandinavian country. The one-year mortality of BP is highly variable with estimates between 11% and 41% worldwide. As for comorbidities, the previous studies have shown that BP is associated with neurological disorders. The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence and mortality of BP in Finland, to assess the treatments used for BP, and the potential contribution of systemic glucocorticoid treatment to the high mortality rate found in BP patients. A further aim was to obtain more specific information about the neurological diseases associated with BP, and to clarify the less studied association with psychiatric disorders. For these purposes, we collected the records of all immunologically confirmed BP patients diagnosed in the Oulu University Hospital between 1985 and 2012, and, for a sub-study III, data for all patients diagnosed with BP in Finnish hospitals between 1987 and 2013. We found that the incidence of BP in Northern Finland has increased over the past two decades to approximately 27 new BP cases per 1 million persons per year. The one-year mortality of BP patients is 17%, and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) is 7.6. Common comorbidities found in the sample of BP patients were: cardiovascular diseases (76%), neurodegenerative diseases (41%), skin conditions other than BP (37%) and type 2 diabetes (23%). Many neurodegenerative diseases of the central nervous system were associated with BP, as were many psychiatric disorders. The association was strongest between multiple sclerosis (MS) and BP, with MS patients having almost a 6-fold higher risk of BP than controls. The present study reports for the first time the incidence and mortality of BP in Finland, and provides new information about the association between BP and neurological and psychiatric disorders. / Tiivistelmä Rakkulainen pemfigoidi (josta jatkossa käytetään nimitystä pemfigoidi) on autoimmuunisairaus, joka esiintyy yleensä iäkkäillä, ja aiheuttaa ihon rakkulointia ja hankalaa kutinaa. Aiemmissa tutkimuksissa pemfigoidin ilmaantuvuus on vaihdellut 0,05:sta 42,8:aan tapaukseen miljoonaa ihmistä kohden vuodessa. Ilmaantuvuuden on havaittu olevan korkeampi Länsi-Euroopassa, kun taas Välimeren ympäristössä ilmaantuvuus on matalampi. Pemfigoidia sairastavien kuolleisuus vuoden kuluessa diagnoosista vaihtelee noin 11-41%:n välillä. Aiemmat tutkimukset ovat myös osoittaneet, että pemfigoidi liittyy neurologisiin sairauksiin. Pemfigoidin epidemiologiaa ei ole kuitenkaan tutkittu Suomessa tai muissa Pohjoismaissa. Tämän tutkimuksen tarkoituksena oli selvittää pemfigoidin ilmaantuvuus ja kuolleisuus Suomessa, tutkia sen hoitoon käytettyjä lääkkeitä sekä arvioida systeemisen glukokortikoidihoidon osuutta korkeaan kuolleisuuteen. Lisäksi tavoitteena oli saada yksityiskohtaista tietoa pemfigoidiin liittyvistä neurologisista sairauksista ja selvittää lisää aiemmissa tutkimuksissa ristiriitaiseksi jäänyttä yhteyttä psykiatrisiin sairauksiin. Tätä varten keräsimme tiedot kaikista Oulun yliopistollisessa sairaalassa diagnosoiduista, immunologisesti varmennetuista pemfigoiditapauksista vuosilta 1985-2012. Kolmannessa osatyössä käytimme kansallista aineistoa, joka sisälsi kaikkialla Suomessa diagnosoidut pemfigoidia sairastavat potilaat vuosilta 1987-2013. Pemfigoidin ilmaantuvuus kasvoi seuranta-aikana ollen nykyisin Pohjois-Suomessa noin 27 tapausta miljoonaa ihmistä kohden vuodessa. Kuolleisuus vuoden kuluessa diagnoosista oli 17% ja vakioitu kuolleisuussuhde (standardized mortality ratio) 7,6. Yleisiä oheissairauksia pemfigoidia sairastavilla olivat sydän- ja verisuonisairaudet (76%), neurodegeneratiiviset sairaudet (41%), muut ihosairaudet (37%) sekä tyypin 2 diabetes (23%). Tutkimuksessa todettiin, että monet neurogeneratiiviset sairaudet ja monet psykiatriset sairaudet liittyvät pemfigoidiin. Yhteys oli vahvin pesäkekovettumataudin (MS-tauti) ja pemfigoidin välillä, ja MS-tautia sairastavilla riski sairastua pemfigoidiin oli lähes 6-kertainen verrattuna kontrollipotilaisiin. Tämä tutkimus on ensimmäinen, joka raportoi pemfigoidin ilmaantuvuuden ja kuolleisuuden Suomessa. Tutkimus antaa lisäksi uutta tietoa pemfigoidin yhteydestä neurologisiin ja psykiatrisiin sairauksiin.
399

Stereotype Threat and the Standardized Testing Experiences of African American Children at an Urban Elementary School

Wasserberg, Martin J 22 October 2009 (has links)
Stereotype threat (Steele & Aronson, 1995) refers to the risk of confirming a negative stereotype about one’s group in a particular performance domain. The theory assumes that performance in the stereotyped domain is most negatively affected when individuals are more highly identified with the domain in question. As federal law has increased the importance of standardized testing at the elementary level, it can be reasonably hypothesized that the standardized test performance of African American children will be depressed when they are aware of negative societal stereotypes about the academic competence of African Americans. This sequential mixed-methods study investigated whether the standardized testing experiences of African American children in an urban elementary school are related to their level of stereotype awareness. The quantitative phase utilized data from 198 African American children at an urban elementary school. Both ex-post facto and experimental designs were employed. Experimental conditions were diagnostic and non-diagnostic testing experiences. The qualitative phase utilized data from a series of six focus group interviews conducted with a purposefully selected group of 4 African American children. The interview data were supplemented with data from 30 hours of classroom observations. Quantitative findings indicated that the stereotype threat condition evoked by diagnostic testing depresses the reading test performance of stereotype-aware African American children (F[1, 194] = 2.21, p < .01). This was particularly true of students who are most highly domain-identified with reading (F[1, 91] = 19.18, p < .01). Moreover, findings indicated that only stereotype-aware African American children who were highly domain-identified were more likely to experience anxiety in the diagnostic condition (F[1, 91] = 5.97, p < .025). Qualitative findings revealed 4 themes regarding how African American children perceive and experience the factors related to stereotype threat: (1) a narrow perception of education as strictly test preparation, (2) feelings of stress and anxiety related to the state test, (3) concern with what “others” think (racial salience), and (4) stereotypes. A new conceptual model for stereotype threat is presented, and future directions including implications for practice and policy are discussed.
400

IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON EXTREME HYDROLOGICAL EVENTS IN THE KENTUCKY RIVER BASIN

Chattopadhyay, Somsubhra 01 January 2017 (has links)
Anthropogenic activities including urbanization, rapid industrialization, deforestation and burning of fossil fuels are broadly agreed on as primary causes for ongoing climate change. Scientists agree that climate change over the next century will continue to impact water resources with serious implications including storm surge flooding and a sea level rise projected for North America. To date, the majority of climate change studies conducted across the globe have been for large-sized watersheds; more attention is required to assess the impact of climate change on smaller watersheds, which can help to better frame sustainable water management strategies. In the first of three studies described in this dissertation, trends in annual precipitation and air-temperature across the Commonwealth of Kentucky were evaluated using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test considering meteorological time series data from 84 weather stations. Results indicated that while annual precipitation and mean annual temperature have been stable for most of Kentucky over the period 1950-2010, there is evidence of increases (averages of 4.1 mm/year increase in annual precipitation and 0.01 °C/year in mean annual temperature) along the borders of the Kentucky. Considered in its totality, available information indicates that climate change will occur – indeed, it is occurring – and while much of the state might not clearly indicate it at present, Kentucky will almost certainly not be exempt from its effects. Spatial analysis of the trend results indicated that eastern part of the state, which is characterized by relatively high elevations, has been experiencing decreasing trends in precipitation. In the second study, trends and variability of seven extreme precipitation indices (total precipitation on wet days, PRCPTOT; maximum length of dry and wet periods, CDD and CWD, respectively; number of days with precipitation depth ≥20 mm, R20mm; maximum five-day precipitation depth, RX5day; simple daily precipitation intensity, SDII; and standardized precipitation index, SPI were analyzed for the Kentucky River Basin for both baseline period of 1986-2015 and the late-century time frame of 2070-2099. For the baseline period, the majority of the indices demonstrated increasing trends; however, statistically significant trends were found for only ~11% of station-index combinations of the 16 weather stations considered. Projected magnitudes for PRCPTOT, CDD, CWD, RX5day and SPI, indices associated with the macroweather regime, demonstrated general consistency with trends previously identified and indicated modest increases in PRCPTOT and CWD, slight decreases in CDD, mixed results for RX5day, and increased non-drought years in the late century relative to the baseline period. The study’s findings indicate that future conditions might be characterized by more rainy days but fewer large rainfall events; this might lead to a scenario of increased average annual rainfall but, at the same time, increased water scarcity during times of maximum demand. In the third and final study, the potential impact of climate change on hydrologic processes and droughts over the Kentucky River basin was studied using the watershed model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model was successfully calibrated and validated and then forced with forecasted precipitation and temperature outputs from a suite of CMIP5 global climate model (GCMs) corresponding to two different representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) for two time periods: 2036-2065 and 2070-2099, referred to as mid-century and late-century, respectively. Climate projections indicate that there will be modest increases in average annual precipitation and temperature in the future compared to the baseline (1976-2005) period. Monthly variations of water yield and surface runoff demonstrated an increasing trend in spring and autumn, while winter months are projected as having decreasing trends. In general, maximum drought length is expected to increase, while drought intensity might decrease under future climatic conditions. Hydrological droughts (reflective of water availability), however, are predicted to be less intense but more persistent than meteorological droughts (which are more reflective of only meteorological variables). Results of this study could be helpful for preparing any climate change adaptation plan to ensure sustainable water resources in the Kentucky River Basin.

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