This Bachelor thesis investigates if the Swedish trade has faced trade diversion and or trade creation after entering the European Union (EU). This is done by analyzing Sweden’s trade pattern of goods before and during the membership using a selected time-period of 1985-2004. To be able to investigate if Sweden has faced trade diversion and trade creation we apply the Soloaga and Winters model (2000) which is based on the gravity model of trade and we modify it to fit our purpose. By using the modified version we run a pooled panel data regression where we divide the time-period into two groups, a before (1985-1994) and during (1995-2004) EU membership group and we included eight different variables to estimate trade diversion and creation. After running the pooled panel data, we could conclude that Sweden has faced 44 percent trade diversion by diverting its trade from non-members to member states in the EU. Sweden has also increased its trade to EU member states by 106 percent implying trade creation. However since we have not included an exchange rate variable these figure cannot be used as direct percentages to estimate trade diversion and creation, they are instead used as a point of reference. ii / Denna kandidatuppsats undersöker huruvida Sveriges handel har påverkats av handelsomfördelning och eller en handelsökning efter medlemskapet i den Europeiska Unionen (EU). Detta gör vi genom att analysera Sveriges handelstrend under 1985-2004. Till vår hjälp i vår undersökning av Sveriges handelsutveckling under de senaste 20 åren har vi använt Soloaga och Winters (2000) regressionsmodell som är baserad på gravitations modellen för handel men vi har modifierat den till att passa vårt syfte. Genom denna modifierade modell har vi gjort en poolad paneldata analys där vi delar upp vår tids period i två grupper, en före- och en under EU grupp och vi inkluderade åtta variabler i modellen. Sammanfattningsvis har vi kommit fram till att Sverige har påverkats av en 44 procentig handelsomfördelning då handeln har skiftat från icke medlemsstater till medlemsstater. Sverige har även ökat sin handel med EU länderna med 106 procent vilket pekar på att Sverige även har påverkats av en handelsökning. Dessa siffror måste dock ses som en utgångspunkt och inte exakta siffror för handelsomfördelning och handelsökning då vi ej inkluderat en variabel som mäter valutakurs förändringar i vår regressionsmodell

This bachelor thesis examines how the trade flow of Turkey would change if the country becomes a member in the EU. This is done by analysing the Turkish trade flow with the EU and ROW over the period 1995 – 2005. The main question is if trade creation and trade diversion occurs? The model used in this paper is a gravity model influenced by Soloaga and Winters (2000) gravity model. To be able to answer the purpose of this paper we used a crosssectional regression and base our analysis on our results. The conclusion of this paper is that Turkey’s trade flow with the EU will increase if full-membership is accomplished. This leads to trade diversion and trade creation towards the other members-states within EU. We see Turkey as the key to the door for Middle Eastern countries and the EU; this implies that if Turkey becomes a member-state in EU, the trade could increase between these two continents. / Denna kandidatuppsats undersöker huruvida Turkiets handelsflöde kan förändras av ett eventuellt Europeiskt medlemskap. Det är gjort genom att analysera Turkiets handelstrend under perioden 1995 – 2005. Huvudfrågan är huruvida handelsfördelning och handelsökning sker? Modellen som används i uppsatsen är en gravitations modell influerad av Soloaga och Winters (2000) gravitations modell. För att kunna besvara syftet i uppsatsen har vi använt oss av en tvärsnittsregression och baserat analysen på resultaten. Sammanfattningsvis ser man att Turkiets handelsflöde med EU ökar av ett eventuellt medlemskap i EU. Detta leder till handelsökning samt handelsfördelning gentemot nuvarande medlemmar. Vi anser även att Turkiet är nyckeln Mellanöstern samt EU, vilket innebär att fullt medlemskap ökar handeln mellan dessa två kontinenter.

<p>This bachelor thesis examines how the trade flow of Turkey would change if the country becomes a member in the EU. This is done by analysing the Turkish trade flow with the EU and ROW over the period 1995 – 2005. The main question is if trade creation and trade diversion occurs?</p><p>The model used in this paper is a gravity model influenced by Soloaga and Winters (2000) gravity model. To be able to answer the purpose of this paper we used a crosssectional regression and base our analysis on our results.</p><p>The conclusion of this paper is that Turkey’s trade flow with the EU will increase if full-membership is accomplished. This leads to trade diversion and trade creation towards the other members-states within EU. We see Turkey as the key to the door for Middle Eastern countries and the EU; this implies that if Turkey becomes a member-state in EU, the trade could increase between these two continents.</p> / <p>Denna kandidatuppsats undersöker huruvida Turkiets handelsflöde kan förändras av ett eventuellt Europeiskt medlemskap. Det är gjort genom att analysera Turkiets handelstrend under perioden 1995 – 2005. Huvudfrågan är huruvida handelsfördelning och handelsökning sker?</p><p>Modellen som används i uppsatsen är en gravitations modell influerad av Soloaga och Winters (2000) gravitations modell. För att kunna besvara syftet i uppsatsen har vi använt oss av en tvärsnittsregression och baserat analysen på resultaten.</p><p>Sammanfattningsvis ser man att Turkiets handelsflöde med EU ökar av ett eventuellt medlemskap i EU. Detta leder till handelsökning samt handelsfördelning gentemot nuvarande medlemmar. Vi anser även att Turkiet är nyckeln Mellanöstern samt EU, vilket innebär att fullt medlemskap ökar handeln mellan dessa två kontinenter.</p>

The Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China have a long history of trading with each other. They are economic partners as well as competitors for many years. In order to push their economic relationship to a higher level, in November 2002, ASEAN and China signed the initial framework agreement, determined on establishing the ASEAN - China Free Trade Area (ACFTA) among the eleven countries by 2010 for the ASEAN-6 (Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand) and by 2015 for the transitional economies of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam (the CLMV). There are fears that China’s rapid development recently will encourage ASEAN’s exports to flow into its giant domestic market instead of among the members countries. Also the benefits of the Free Trade Agreement are still unclear. The Thesis uses three gravity models and the panel data of 11 countries from 1992 to 2009 to test two hypotheses: trade diversion (that expanded trade with China will reduce intra-trade within ASEAN) and trade creation (that ACFTA will boost up bilateral trade between ASEAN and China).

The different ways countries trade with each other have developed during the years but the purpose, free exchange in goods and services, remains intact. The main idea of trade between countries is that both parties gain from the exchange. The European Union is the world’s biggest trading block, and in the form of a customs union there are mainly two different ways in which it theoretically can affect bilateral trade flows, namely by trade diversion or by trade creation. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze how the European Union affects the bilateral trade flows both within the union, as well as with countries outside of it. In order to examine these effects a quantitative method will be used where a regression analysis is applied based on a gravity model, observing the years 2000–2019. The results indicate a significant positive effect of EU-membership on both trade flows with different member countries, as well as with countries without a membership. The estimations from the different regressions indicate that the bilateral trade flows between member countries increases with around 33%–40%, while bilateral trade flows with countries outside of the union increases with around 3%. / Länders sätt att handla med varandra har utvecklats genom åren men syftet, fritt utbyte av varor och tjänster, är intakt. Grundidén till handel mellan länder är att båda tjänar på utbytet. Europeiska unionen är världens största handelsblock, och som en tullunion så finns det framförallt två effekter detta kan ge på länders bilaterala handel, antingen handelsfrämjande eller handelsomfördelande. Syftet med denna uppsats är att analysera hur den europeiska handelsunionen påverkar den bilaterala handeln dels med andra medlemsländer, dels med länder utanför handelsunionen. För att undersöka dessa effekter används en kvantitativ metod där en regressionsanalys genomförs med hjälp av en gravitationsmodell, där de observerade åren är år 2000–2019. Resultatet av denna studie visar ett positivt signifikant samband mellan bilateral handel med både andra medlemsländer såväl som länder utanför unionen. Estimeringarna från de olika regressionerna indikerar att den bilaterala handeln ökat mellan EU-medlemmar med cirka 33%–40% och med cirka 3% med länder utanför unionen.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Augusto de Pinho Rodrigues.pdf: 1059393 bytes, checksum: 78b0c9acddd97bef15d3a78fd2aa1ff8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2010-11-08 / Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada / This research aims to study the advantages of the economic integration for two countries of MERCOSUL: Brazil and Argentina. From this perspective, is observed the trade creation, the exports low competitiveness and some evidences showing that the two biggest economies of Latin America are specialized in export commodities shift and share analyses and the regional evolution of the commerce, all those points are highlighted in this work. Trying to value the real advantages of the agreement of MERCOSUL, this search aims to provide a discussion if regional integration can help increasing the world competitiveness from those economies external sector, according to the international economics theory. How would be the best strategy: regional integration or commercial multilateralism? It will discuss theories and arguments from economic thoughts trying to explain the consequences from the integration between countries considering a trade flow analysis. In addition, it considers an individual analysis of the main MERCOSUL members Brazil and Argentina and their advantages related to the regional integration. Several empirical indices were examined in order to measure if the expected integration advantages can be really seen / Este trabalho se propõe a estudar as vantagens da integração econômica para os países do MERCOSUL, Brasil e Argentina. Dos efeitos percebidos, na perspectiva recente deste bloco econômico, destacam-se a criação de comércio, a pouca competitividade das exportações, as diferenças de competitividade entre commodities e manufaturas e o relativo aumento do comércio regional, que são foco da análise da presente dissertação. Visando avaliar as vantagens conseguidas a partir da efetivação do MERCOSUL, o trabalho pretende contribuir para a discussão relativa à adoção de uma estratégia de integração regional em opção à abertura comercial multilateral, à luz das teorias do comércio internacional. Será considerada a análise individual do Brasil e da Argentina e suas respectivas vantagens advindas como consequência da adesão ao bloco, advindas de variações nos fluxos comerciais, aumento da competitividade do ponto de vista estrutural diferencial, de preços relativos e aqueles provenientes dos ganhos estáticos. Além disso, abordaremos debates teóricos entre escolas de pensamento econômico, relativos à economia internacional, na tentativa de explicar as consequências que a integração entre países acarretaria. Serão analisados diversos indicadores empíricos objetivando visualizar se as vantagens previstas na teoria da integração já se efetivaram

In view of the postponement of negotiations for the modernization of the EU-Turkey customs union, this paper is aimed to look back and examine the ex-post impacts of the CU by examining its trade creation and diversion effects. The study tests effects of 44 countries (including Turkey, 28 EU and 15 non-EU countries) with aggregated data for time period from 1989 to 2019 and disaggregated sectoral trade data from 1995 to 2019. For estimation, the gravity model with strong theoretical and empirical foundation is used by combining various fixed effects with PPML method. The results from the aggregated analysis confirm the trade-promoting effects of the EU-Turkey customs union with mixed effects on both trade within the members (intra-trade creation effects) and trade with non- members (extra-trade creation effects). But the trade diversion is not significantly proved in the model. Besides, a substantial heterogeneity in the CU effect is found across different industries, suggesting the CU has significantly improved the trade on textiles, transportation, machinery, metals and plastics/rubbers, but negligibly influence agriculture, mineral and chemicals. Furthermore, the study also evidences that the impact of the CU is stronger in EU's export to Turkey than Turkey's export to the EU. Finally, CU's...

Armenia is going to join the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia (the Eurasian Customs Union) in the coming months. The author uses partial-equilibrium model to investigate and calculate trade diversion, trade creation and net welfare effects of accession on the Armenian economy. The thesis concludes that the membership in the customs union would lead to welfare losses and negative static effects. The main reason is the pure trade diversion effect on Armenia resulting from the increased external tariff rate. Adopting the common external tariff of the Eurasian Customs Union would raise the prices of those imported goods which flow from outside the customs union. As the majority of Armenian imports come from outside the Eurasian Customs Union, the increase in import prices would carry high social costs for the Armenian consumers. In addition, the absence of shared border with the customs union member-states substantially diminishes the potential benefits from possible non-tariff barrier facilitation. Therefore, the thesis strongly recommends against the accession.

Motivation of virtually all regional economic integration (REI) initiatives has been prospect of enhanced economic growth. Although REI's role in contributing to growth and development was recognised and acknowledged, its importance in Africa has never been properly outlined. Theoretical background, economic assumptions and evidence of REI are examined to bring out REI's importance to Africa. Depicting from these, benefits and challenges of REI in Africa are explored. This dissertation analyses the progress, pace, approach, sequence of REI in Africa looking at different variables. Africa's regional integration blueprint and institutional framework are compared to EU's but selected areas are identified as essential for Africa. Progress on REI has been found to be slow. This study concludes that REI should be viewed as one aspect of strategy towards Africa's development and growth. However, the benefits of REI make it imperative for it to remain the central pillar of Africa's development agenda. / Economics / M.Com. (Economics)

多邊主義下帶動之「全球化」及區域主義下所帶動之「區域化」皆已成為現階段國際經貿發展的兩股重要潮流，透過洽簽自由貿易協定所達到之區域經濟整合，在區域內可消除絕大部份之關稅及非關稅貿易障礙，預計將有助於增進會員國間之貿易量，形成貿易創造效果，而或對於非會員國造成貿易轉向效果。故其將影響國際貿易的流向，國際資源的重分配，進而改變國際分工型態。 為瞭解區域經濟整合對於貿易流量的影響，本文首先將就區域經濟整合之定義與法源、區域經濟整合發展與現況、及台灣與各主要區域經濟整合之貿易概況進行概述。鑒於引力模型可有效的分析雙邊的貿易流量，本文針對該模型之相關文獻及實證歸納與整理，並利用引力模型，選擇全球六個重要區域經濟組織包括北美自由貿易區、歐盟、東協自由貿易區、南方共同市場、安地略集團及紐澳緊密關係協定等區域共計37個國家，以設定虛擬變數之方式實證1990年至2003年長達13年間各區域經濟整合的過程中，其對於區內會員國及對非屬會員國進、出口貿易流量之影響，特別是整合過程中對台灣是否產生貿易轉向之現象進行實證研究，並分析影響貿易流量之因素。 本實證研究發現影響二國間貿易流量的因素分別為出、進口國之國民生產毛額及人均國民生產毛額，以及距離。區域經濟整合具有明顯的貿易創造效果，而貿易轉向效果則隨經濟整合的緊密程度、區域內產業分工型態及與區域外國家出、進口結構及產業間相互競合程度不一而產生不同的影響。在上述六個區域經濟整合中，北美自由貿易區及南方共同市場對台灣產生貿易轉向的現象。本研究亦針對上述之結果與區域經濟整合實際進展現況進行交互分析。最後，本研究將就政策面及後續研究的方向提出建議，俾供參考。 / Globalization and regionalization have been the two main trends in international economic development in recent years. Already, many countries have signed Free Trade Agreements to achieve the goal of regional economic integration. This integration allows members of the region to virtually eliminate all tariff and non-tariff trade barriers and, as a result, increase trade volume between member countries. This phenomenon is called trade creation. On the other hand, trade volume between members of the region and non-member may decrease, a phenomenon called trade diversion. All of this will affect international trade flows, the allocation of international resources and change the pattern of the international industrial division. In order to learn how regional economic integration influences trade flows, this paper deals first with the definition and regulation under the GATT of regional trade agreements, the present situation and the development of regional economic integration. We also examine the current state of import and export trade between Taiwan and the main regional economies in the world. This paper reviews the relevant literature on the gravity model, a model that can effectively analyze trade flows between two countries, then proceeds to use this model with NAFTA, EU, AFTA, MERCOSUR, ANDEAN Community, and CER (Closer Economic Relationship between the Australia and New Zealand) as regional dummies. This allows us to test alterations in trade flows between members and other members as well as between members and non-members (especially Taiwan) in these six regional trade blocs for the 13 years between 1990 and 2003. This model also analyzes the main factors affecting trade flows. We find first that the main factors influencing trade flows between two countries are the GDP and per capita GDP of the importer and exporter as well as distance. Secondly, while regional economic integration clearly brings with it trade creation, the degree of trade diversion is affected by such factors as the degree of regional economic integration, the pattern of industrial division in the region, the structure of imports from and exports to non-member countries and the level of competition and cooperation in various sectors. The empirical evidence shows that NAFTA and Mercosur have resulted in trade diversion away from Taiwan. Based on our findings, we offer policy suggestions and suggestions for further research.