Cette thèse est dédiée à une classe particulière de modèles à facteurs dynamiques non linéaires, les modèles à facteurs dynamiques à changement de régime markovien (MS-DFM). Par la combinaison des caractéristiques du modèle à facteur dynamique et celui du modèle à changement de régimes markoviens(i.e. la capacité d’agréger des quantités massives d’information et de suivre des processus fluctuants), ce cadre s’est révélé très utile et convenable pour plusieurs applications, dont le plus important est l’analyse des cycles économiques.La connaissance de l’état actuel des cycles économiques est crucial afin de surveiller la santé économique et d’évaluer les résultats des politiques économiques. Néanmoins, ce n’est pas une tâche facile à réaliser car, d’une part, il n’y a pas d’ensemble de données et de méthodes communément reconnus pour identifier les points de retournement, d’autre part, car les institutions officielles annoncent un nouveau point de retournement, dans les pays où une telle pratique existe, avec un délai structurel de plusieurs mois.Le MS-DFM est en mesure de résoudre ces problèmes en fournissant des estimations de l’état actuel de l’économie de manière rapide, transparente et reproductible sur la base de la composante commune des indicateurs macroéconomiques caractérisant le secteur réel.Cette thèse contribue à la vaste littérature sur l’identification des points de retournement du cycle économique dans trois direction. Dans le Chapitre 3, on compare les deux techniques d’estimation de MS-DFM, les méthodes en une étape et en deux étapes, et on les applique aux données françaises pour obtenir la chronologie des points de retournement du cycle économique. Dans Chapitre 4, sur la base des simulations de Monte Carlo, on étudie la convergence des estimateurs de la technique retenue - la méthode d’estimation en deux étapes, et on analyse leur comportement en échantillon fini. Dans le Chapitre 5, on propose une extension de MS-DFM - le MS-DFM à l’influence dynamique (DI-MS-DFM)- qui permet d’évaluer la contribution du secteur financier à la dynamique du cycle économique et vice versa, tout en tenant compte du fait que l’interaction entre eux puisse être dynamique. / This thesis is dedicated to the study of a particular class of non-linear Dynamic Factor Models, the Dynamic Factor Models with Markov Switching (MS-DFM). Combining the features of the Dynamic Factor model and the Markov Switching model, i.e. the ability to aggregate massive amounts of information and to track recurring processes, this framework has proved to be a very useful and convenient instrument in many applications, the most important of them being the analysis of business cycles.In order to monitor the health of an economy and to evaluate policy results, the knowledge of the currentstate of the business cycle is essential. However, it is not easy to determine since there is no commonly accepted dataset and method to identify turning points, and the official institutions announce a newturning point, in countries where such practice exists, with a structural delay of several months. The MS-DFM is able to resolve these issues by providing estimates of the current state of the economy in a timely, transparent and replicable manner on the basis of the common component of macroeconomic indicators characterizing the real sector. The thesis contributes to the vast literature in this area in three directions. In Chapter 3, I compare the two popular estimation techniques of the MS-DFM, the one-step and the two-step methods, and apply them to the French data to obtain the business cycle turning point chronology. In Chapter 4, on the basis of Monte Carlo simulations, I study the consistency of the estimators of the preferred technique -the two-step estimation method, and analyze their behavior in small samples. In Chapter 5, I extend the MS-DFM and suggest the Dynamical Influence MS-DFM, which allows to evaluate the contribution of the financial sector to the dynamics of the business cycle and vice versa, taking into consideration that the interaction between them can be dynamic.

近年來，富士康受到國際間高度的重視，然而，富士康中國工廠員工的高自殺率使得學者較重視員工的工作情況，鮮少對公司的擴張、轉移以及搬遷進行研究。本文聚焦於過去四十年富士康在中國的經濟發展面向。 使用雁行理論分析中國經濟發展的文獻不斷增加，富士康也參與於該理論所描述之中國邊境的工廠遷移現象，因此，本文整理學者對雁行理論的論辯，指出該理論無法解釋中國邊境發生的經濟現象。為彌補雁行理論的不足，我們將敘明中國空間發展於不同區域的漸進式轉變，係透過中央與地方政策的施行而開始。 研究結果顯示，依據區域經濟的發展階段差異，投資往往發生在相對優勢的地區，然而， 透過政策影響國家之動態優勢，以及投資趨動力……等，並不符合日本學者赤松要提出之雁形理論。一份關於富士康的直接與間接投資的分析指出，富士康的發展方向反映了中國的整體經濟發展，並且有兩個同時進行的發展方向：其一，地理上來說，富士康將投資從中國沿岸地區轉移至內陸地區，甚至進一步移往東南亞及歐美地區。其二，富士康將其產品種類擴大並提升到更多元及優質的方向。 / Over the last few years, Foxconn has started to gain massive international attention, however influenced by the high rate of suicides that afflicted plants in Mainland China, scholars focused the most on the labor condition of Foxconn workers, pushing the company’s very interesting business expansion, diversion and relocation into the background. This paper will focus on these processes in the context of China’s economic development of the past forty years. A growing literature about the latest developments of the Chinese economy adopts the flying geese model to describe the phenomenon of factory relocation that is taking place within the Chinese national borders. Foxconn is also part of the process. For this reason this work will also join in the scholar debate about the flying geese, making clear that the model falls short in explaining some aspects of this phenomenon. A detailed description of China spatial development, that is the gradual development of different regions brought about the launch of national and local policies, will make up for the shortcomings. Results show that investments were often taken according to the relative comparative advantage of regions in their respective stage of development, however in some cases China’s governmental policies changed the country’s comparative advantage dynamics, and investments’ driving forces were therefore in contrast with Akamatsu’s precepts. An analysis of Foxconn direct and indirect investments shows that the company has mirrored the growth of China, and evolved simultaneously in two different ways: geographically speaking they have moved investments from the Chinese coast to the central regions, and further to South East Asia, US and Europe; while at the same time expanding production into a more diverse and advanced set of products.

Text in English / The aim of the current study is to provide detailed information regarding individuals’ turning-point experiences, in order to understand the psychological and spiritual aspects involved in moving beyond a significant low point towards a significant high point in one’s life. It seems that inadequate information regarding formal studies about this phenomenon exists in literature, which this study endeavours to address. Thereby, a qualitative phenomenological study was conducted amongst nineteen South African citizens, who were purposefully and conveniently selected from the diverse population of South Africa. Individual participants confirmed that they had experienced significant low points from which they had been able to move to reach a significant high point. Through interviews, River-of-life (RoL) drawings and a short background information questionnaire (SBIQ), participants were able to provide information on their experiences. The participants’ stories, obtained during the interviews, were transcribed, and then triangulated with information obtained from the RoL drawings, completed SBIQ’s, researcher notes and other additional sources, during the analysis phase. Thematic analysis was performed on individuals’ stories to obtain the research participants’ themes, which provided the aspects involved in their turning-point experiences. In-depth analysis of all participants’ stories produced a theme-model consisting of main and unique themes. Unique themes identified by the study supported the main themes. Themes highlighted through the study included minding oneself, support from and to, doing something, religion/faith in God, positive attitude and meaning. The positive psychology theoretical framework was applied in interpreting the findings. This study suggests that a combination of themes is relevant in one’s ability to move beyond a low point experience towards a high point experience. The application of the theme-model could assist others in similar situations to create change or a turning-point experience in order to move away from or transcend a low point. The study was linked to the subjective measuring of Quality of Life (QOL). It is recommended that more subjective indicators of QOL, including spirituality indicators, be investigated. While this study focussed on the internal influences affecting change in a person’s life towards fulfilment, further studies may investigate the external influences. / Psychology / Ph. D. (Psychology)

Summaries in English and Afrikaans / Any loss in an adolescent's life may lead to shattered dreams. Therapists, who work with adolescents who have experienced a loss must support and guide them to develop an awareness of their needs, impulses and dreams. Therapists must furthermore be aware of the factors that contributed to a turning point for the adolescents who managed to recreate their dreams. Adolescents' dreams are influenced by the current circumstances in South Africa, as well as their parents' perceptions and parenting styles. The loss of what could have been, after a loss, must also be addressed. The gestalt therapist establishes the process of awareness in the here-and-now. Furthermore, the adolescent must be guided to accept responsibility for his own choices and to purposeful create a new life dream. / Enige verlies in adolessente se lewens kan lei tot verbrokkelde lewensdrome. Terapeute wat werk met adolessente wat 'n verlies ervaar het, moet hul ondersteun en begelei sodat hulle bewustheid kan ontwikkel van hul behoeftes, drange en drome. Terapeute moet verder bewus wees van die faktore wat 'n keerpunt meegebring het by die adolessente wat wei hul drome kon herskep. Adolessente se lewensdrome word beinvloed deur die huidige omstandighede in Suid-Afrika, sowel as deur hul ouers se persepsies en ouerskapstyl. Die verlies aan dit wat kon wees, na afloop van 'n verlies moet dus ook aangespreek word. Die gestaltterapeut bewerkstellig die bewusmakingsproses in die hier-en-nou. Verder moet die adolessent gelei word om verantwoordelikheid te neem vir sy eie keuses en om doelbewus 'n nuwe lewensdroom te skep. / Social Work / M. Diac. (Play Therapy)

Apart from rapid economic growth, China has also experienced significant demographic changes over the past few decades. The People's Republic of China's family planning policies led to a sharp drop in the fertility rate. This MS Thesis aims to assess the possible consequences of the family planning policies on future growth of Chinese economy. The theoretical part defines population policy, assess the connections between population growth and economic growth and deals with the development of population theory over the years. The analytical part describes the family planning policy in China, its principles and instruments. Next it identifies the possible consequences of the demographic changes caused by the drop in fertility rate. The last part of the thesis focuses on two economically most severe consequences - population ageing and shrinking working age population - and evaluates its implications on future growth of Chinese economy.

This thesis is concerned with nonlinear analyses of BWR stability behaviour, contributing to a deeper understanding in this field. Despite negative feedback-coefficients of a BWR, there are operational points (OP) at which oscillatory instabilities occur. So far, a comprehensive and an in-depth understanding of the nonlinear BWR stability behaviour are missing, even though the impact of the significant physical parameters is well known. In particular, this concerns parameter regions in which linear stability indicators, like the asymptotic decay ratio, lose their meaning. Nonlinear stability analyses are usually carried out using integral (system) codes, describing the dynamical system by a system of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDE). One aspect of nonlinear BWR stability analyses is to get an overview about different types of nonlinear stability behaviour and to examine the conditions of their occurrence. For these studies the application of system codes alone is inappropriate. Hence, in the context of this thesis, a novel approach to nonlinear BWR stability analyses, called RAM-ROM method, is developed. In the framework of this approach, system codes and reduced order models (ROM) are used as complementary tools to examine the stability characteristics of fixed points and periodic solutions of the system of nonlinear differential equations, describing the stability behaviour of a BWR loop. The main advantage of a ROM, which is a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE), is the possible coupling with specific methods of the nonlinear dynamics. This method reveals nonlinear phenomena in certain regions of system parameters without the need for solving the system of ROM equations. The stability properties of limit cycles generated in Hopf bifurcation points and the conditions of their occurrence are of particular interest. Finally, the nonlinear phenomena predicted by the ROM will be analysed in more details by the system code. Hence, the thesis is not focused on rendering more precisely linear stability indicators like DR. The objective of the ROM development is to develop a model as simple as possible from the mathematical and numerical point of view, while preserving the physics of the BWR stability behaviour. The ODEs of the ROM are deduced from the PDEs describing the dynamics of a BWR. The system of ODEs includes all spatial effects in an approximated (spatial averaged) manner, e.g. the space-time dependent neutron flux is expanded in terms of a complete set of orthogonal spatial neutron flux modes. In order to simulate the stability characteristics of the in-phase and out-of-phase oscillation mode, it is only necessary to take into account the fundamental mode and the first azimuthal mode. The ROM, originally developed at PSI in collaboration with the University of Illinois (PSI-Illinois-ROM), was upgraded in significant points: • Development and implementation of a new calculation methodology for the mode feedback reactivity coefficients (void and fuel temperature reactivity) • Development and implementation of a recirculation loop model; analysis and discussion of its impact on the in-phase and out-of-phase oscillation mode • Development of a novel physically justified approach for the calculation of the ROM input data • Discussion of the necessity of consideration of the effect of subcooled boiling in an approximate manner With the upgraded ROM, nonlinear BWR stability analyses are performed for three OPs (one for NPP Leibstadt (cycle7), one for NPP Ringhals (cycle14) and one for NPP Brunsbüttel (cycle16) for which measuring data of stability tests are available. In this thesis, the novel approach to nonlinear BWR stability analyses is extensively presented for NPP Leibstadt. In particular, the nonlinear analysis is carried out for an operational point (OP), in which an out-of-phase power oscillation has been observed in the scope of a stability test at the beginning of cycle 7 (KKLc7_rec4). The ROM predicts a saddle-node bifurcation of cycles, occurring in the linear stable region, close to the KKLc7_rec4-OP. This result allows a new interpretation of the stability behaviour around the KKLc7_rec4-OP. The results of this thesis confirm that the RAM-ROM methodology is qualified for nonlinear BWR stability analyses. / Die vorliegende Dissertation leistet einen Beitrag zum tieferen Verständnis des nichtlinearen Stabilitätsverhaltens von Siedewasserreaktoren (SWR). Trotz der Tatsache, dass in diesem technischen System nur negative innere Rückkopplungskoeffizienten auftreten, können in bestimmten Arbeitspunkten oszillatorische Instabilitäten auftreten. Obwohl relativ gute Kenntnisse über die signifikanten physikalischen Einflussgrößen vorliegen, fehlt bisher ein umfassendes Verständnis des SWR-Stabilitätsverhaltens. Das betrifft insbesondere die Bereiche der Systemparameter, in denen lineare Stabilitätsindikatoren, wie zum Beispiel das asymptotische Decay Ratio (DR), ihren Sinn verlieren. Die nichtlineare Stabilitätsanalyse wird im Allgemeinen mit Systemcodes (nichtlineare partielle Differentialgleichungen, PDG) durchgeführt. Jedoch kann mit Systemcodes kein oder nur ein sehr lückenhafter Überblick über die Typen von nichtlinearen Phänomenen, die in bestimmten System-Parameterbereichen auftreten, erhalten werden. Deshalb wurde im Rahmen der vorliegenden Arbeit eine neuartige Methode (RAM-ROM Methode) zur nichtlinearen SWR-Stabilitätsanalyse erprobt, bei der integrale Systemcodes und sog. vereinfachte SWR-Modelle (ROM) als sich gegenseitig ergänzende Methoden eingesetzt werden, um die Stabilitätseigenschaften von Fixpunkten und periodischen Lösungen (Grenzzyklen) des nichtlinearen Differentialgleichungssystems, welches das Stabilitätsverhalten des SWR beschreibt, zu bestimmen. Das ROM, in denen das dynamische System durch gewöhnliche Differentialgleichungen (GDG) beschrieben wird, kann relativ einfach mit leistungsfähigen Methoden aus der nichtlinearen Dynamik, wie zum Beispiel die semianalytische Bifurkationsanalyse, gekoppelt werden. Mit solchen Verfahren kann, ohne das DG-System explizit lösen zu müssen, ein Überblick über mögliche Typen von stabilen und instabilen oszillatorischen Verhalten des SWR erhalten werden. Insbesondere sind die Stabilitätseigenschaften von Grenzzyklen, die in Hopf-Bifurkationspunkten entstehen, und die Bedingungen, unter denen sie auftreten, von Interesse. Mit dem Systemcode (RAMONA5) werden dann die mit dem ROM vorhergesagten Phänomene in den entsprechenden Parameterbereichen detaillierter untersucht (Validierung des ROM). Die Methodik dient daher nicht der Verfeinerung der Berechnung linearer Stabilitätsindikatoren (wie das DR). Das ROM-Gleichungssystem entsteht aus den PDGs des Systemcodes durch geeignete (nichttriviale) räumliche Mittelung der PDG. Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass die Reduzierung der räumlichen Komplexität die Stabilitätseigenschaften des SWR nicht signifikant verfälschen, da durch geeignete Mittlungsverfahren, räumliche Effekte näherungsweise in den GDGs berücksichtig werden. Beispielsweise wird die raum- und zeitabhängige Neutronenflussdichte nach räumlichen Moden entwickelt, wobei für eine Simulation der Stabilitätseigenschaften der In-phase- und Out-of-Phase-Leistungsoszillationen nur der Fundamentalmode und der erste azimuthale Mode berücksichtigt werden muss. Das ROM, welches ursprünglich am Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI, Schweiz) in Zusammenarbeit mit der Universität Illinois (USA) entwickelt wurde, ist in zwei wesentlichen Punkten erweitert und verbessert worden: • Entwicklung und Implementierung einer neuen Methode zur Berechnung der Rückkopplungsreaktivitäten • Entwicklung und Implementierung eines Modells zur Beschreibung der Rezirkulationsschleife (insbesondere wurde der Einfluss der Rezirkulationsschleife auf den In-Phase-Oszillationszustand und auf den Out-of-Phase-Oszillationszustand untersucht) • Entwicklung einer physikalisch begründeten Methode zur Berechnung der ROM-Inputdaten • Abschätzung des Einflusses des unterkühlten Siedens im Rahmen der ROM-Näherungen Mit dem erweiterten ROM wurden nichtlineare Stabilitätsanalysen für drei Arbeitspunkte (KKW Leibstadt (Zyklus 7) KKW Ringhals (Zyklus 14) und KKW Brunsbüttel (Zyklus 16)), für die Messdaten vorliegen, durchgeführt. In der Dissertationsschrift wird die RAM-ROM Methode ausführlich am Beispiel eines Arbeitspunktes (OP) des KKW Leibstadt (KKLc7_rec4-OP), in dem eine aufklingende regionale Leistungsoszillation bei einem Stabilitätstest gemessen worden ist, demonstriert. Das ROM sagt die Existenz eines Umkehrpunktes (saddle-node bifurcation of cycles, fold-bifurcation) voraus, der sich im linear stabilen Gebiet nahe der Stabilitätsgrenze befindet. Mit diesem ROM-Ergebnis ist eine neue Interpretation der Stabilitätseigenschaften des KKLc7_rec4-OP möglich. Die Resultate der in der Dissertation durchgeführten RAM-ROM Analyse bestätigen, dass das weiterentwickelte ROM für die Analyse des Stabilitätsverhaltens realer Leistungsreaktoren qualifiziert wurde.

Sudden personal transformation (SPT) was defined as a subjectively reported, positive, profound, and lasting personal change that follows a relatively brief and memorable inner experience. Although such change has been described in numerous biographies, works of fiction, and religious and scholarly texts, a consistent definition and systematic program of research is lacking in the psychological literature. Moreover, almost nothing is known about what causes such change from the subjective point of view of individuals who have experienced it first hand. This study used semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis to explore the common beliefs of three participants about the factors that facilitated and the mechanisms that caused their SPT. Findings reveal that all participants reported a life transition, feeling miserable, feeling exhausted, feeling unable to resolve adverse circumstances, reaching a breaking point, and support from others facilitated their individual SPT’s. All participants also indicated that a formalized activity or ceremony as well as a process outside of their conscious control (either a higher power or a deep inner wisdom) produced or caused their SPT’s. Implications for future research and counselling practice are discussed. / Graduate