MSc (Statistics) / Department of Statistics / Wind offers an environmentally sustainable energy resource that has seen increasing global adoption in recent years. However, its intermittent, unstable and stochastic nature hampers its representation among other renewable energy sources. This work addresses the forecasting of wind speed, a primary input needed for wind energy generation, using data obtained from the South African Wind Atlas Project. Forecasting is carried out on a two days ahead time horizon. We investigate the predictive performance of artificial neural networks (ANN) trained with Bayesian regularisation, decision trees based stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) and generalised additive models (GAMs). The results of the comparative analysis suggest that ANN displays superior predictive performance based on root mean square error (RMSE). In contrast, SGB shows outperformance in terms of mean average error (MAE) and the related mean average percentage error (MAPE). A further comparison of two forecast combination methods involving the linear and additive quantile regression averaging show the latter forecast combination method as yielding lower prediction accuracy. The additive quantile regression averaging based prediction intervals also show outperformance in terms of validity, reliability, quality and accuracy. Interval combination methods show the median method as better than its pure average counterpart. Point forecasts combination and interval forecasting methods are found to improve forecast performance. / NRF

Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis (IUPUI) / A gearless hydraulic wind energy transfer system utilizes the hydraulic power transmission principles to integrate the energy of multiple wind turbines in a central power generation location. The gearless wind power transfer technology may replace the current energy harvesting system to reduce the cost of operation and increase the reliability of wind power generation. It also allows for the integration of multiple wind turbines to one central generation unit, unlike the traditional wind power generation with dedicated generator and gearbox. A Hydraulic Transmission (HT) can transmit high power and can operate over a wide range of torque-to-speed ratios, allowing efficient transmission of intermittent wind power. The torque to speed ratios illustrates the relationship between the torque and speed of a motor (or pump) from the moment of start to when full-load torque is reached at the manufacturer recommended rated speed. In this thesis, a gearless hydraulic wind energy harvesting and transfer system is mathematically modeled and verified by experimental results. The mathematical model is therefore required to consider the system dynamics and be used in control system development. Mathematical modeling also provided a method to determine the losses of the system as well as overall efficiency. The energy is harvested by a low speed-high torque wind turbine connected to a high fixed-displacement hydraulic pump, which is connected to hydraulic motors. Through mathematical modeling of the system, an enhanced understanding of the HTS through analysis was gained that lead to a highly efficient hydraulic energy transmission system. It was determined which factors significantly influenced the system operation and its efficiency more. It was also established how the overall system operated in a multiple wind turbine configuration. The quality of transferred power from the wind turbine to the generator is important to maintaining the systems power balance, frequency droop control in grid-connected applications, and to ensure that the maximum output power is obtained. A hydraulic transmission system can transfer large amounts of power and has more flexibility than a mechanical and electrical system. However high-pressure hydraulic systems have shown low efficiency in wind power transfer when interfaced with a single turbine to a ground-level generator. HT’s generally have acceptable efficiency at full load and drop efficiency as the loading changes, typically having a peak around 60%. The efficiency of a HT is dependent on several parameters including volumetric flow rate, rotational speed and torque at the pump shaft, and the pressure difference across the inlet and outlet of the hydraulic pump and motor. It has been demonstrated that using a central generation unit for a group of wind turbines and transferring the power of each turbine through hydraulic system increases the efficiency of the overall system versus one turbine to one central generation unit. The efficiency enhancement depends on the rotational speed of the hydraulic pumps. Therefore, it is proven that the multiple-turbine hydraulic power transfer system reaches higher efficiencies at lower rotational speeds. This suggests that the gearbox can be eliminated from the wind powertrains if multiple turbines are connected to the central generation unit. Computer simulations and experimental results are provided to quantify the efficiency enhancements obtained by adding the second wind turbine hydraulic pump to the system.

Vattenkraftens påverkan på rinnande vatten är välbeskriven i litteraturen. Med ökat intresse för vindkraft och andra energislag med begränsad klimatpåverkan, ökar även behovet av reglerkraft. Effekten av korttidsreglerad vattenkraft på ekosystem är ett aktuellt ämne med kunskapsluckor i stort behov av fler studier. Indalsälven passerar Järkvissle kraftverk några mil norr om Sundsvall. Den lokala harrpopulationen har minskat kraftigt och misstankar finns om kopplingar till korttidsregleringen i Järkvissle kraftverk. Vid förvaltning av ekosystem och djuren i dem är kunskapen om interaktioner och beteenden bland det viktigaste att etablera. Detta för att kunna avgöra om artens beteende påverkas av korttidsreglering. Bristande kunskap om lokala lekbeteenden innebar således att harren nedan Järkvissle kraftverk studerades inför förväntad lekperiod. Studien baserades på två antaganden 1) harr förflyttar sig uppströms mot grundområden, lämpade för lek, när vattentemperaturen ökar. 2) harr är mer aktiv när flödesvariationen är hög, eftersom lekplatsernas beskaffenhet påverkas av flödesförhållanden. Harr (n = 20) från sträckan nedan Järkvissle kraftverk märktes med radiosändare, för att studera rörelsemönster och beteenden i anslutning till lek under perioden 28 april till 29 maj 2022. Vid 24 handpejlingstillfällen registrerades de märkta individernas position och djup. En Multipel linjär regression med bakåtvänd eliminering gav tre signifikanta resultat. Det observerades en ökad aktivitet i form av euklidisk förflyttning vid höga flöden motsvarande en förflyttning om 1,0 m (± 1 m) för varje 1,0 m3 s-1 ökat flöde. Det observerades även ett temperaturberoende val av ståndplats där en ökning om 1,0 ºC resulterade i en förflyttning till en ståndplats som var 0,21 ± 0,03 m grundare, på ett avstånd som var 65,2 ± 12,5 m längre bort från dammen. Studien bör kompletteras med kartläggning av optimala värden för flödesförändring som gynnar harr, samt om det finns andra variabler som bättre kan förutse tidpunkt och plats för lek. Om avsikten är att stoppa minskandet av harrbeståndet i Järkvissle, bör Järkvissle kraftstation övervaka vattentemperatur och anpassa sin flödesregim. Detta för mjukare övergångar mellan högt och lågt flöde samt att flödet hålls stabilt under lek med fyra extra veckors utrymme för inkubering. / The effect of hydroelectric powerplants (HEP) on waterways is extensive and has been well documented in the literature. But with an increased interest in wind power and other green alternatives, a higher demand for regulated hydroelectric power has emerged, so as not to put stress on the electric grid. Hydropeaking and its effect on ecosystems are a hot topic with gaps in knowledge calling for more research. Indalsälven runs through Järkvissle HEP a few miles north of Sundsvall. The local grayling population has seen a large decline and there are suspicions of a connection to the hydropeaking at Järkvissle HEP. When managing ecosystems and the animals within them it is vital to establish a firm understanding of interactions and behaviour. This can be used to determine the effect of hydropeaking on the behaviours of grayling. A lack in knowledge of local spawning behaviour thus led to a study of the grayling2population below Järkvissle HEP leading up to the expected spawning period. The study was based around two assumptions: 1) grayling move upstream towards shallower areas suitable for spawning as the temperature in the water rises, and 2) grayling are more active when the variation in flow is high, because the number of suitable spawning grounds are limited by flow. Graylings (n = 20) in the area below the Järkvissle HEP were tagged with radio transmitters, to study the movement and behaviour exhibited before the expected spawning period between April 28th and May 29th, 2022. On 24 occasions hand tracking was performed and position and depth of the marked individuals were recorded. Through a multiple linear regression with backwards stepwise elimination three significant results were found. There was an observed increase in activity in the form of Euclidean movement represented by a 1,0 m (± 1 m) movement for every 1,0 m3 s-1 of increased flow. We also observed a temperature dependency when it came to habitat choice, where an increase of 1,0 ºC in water temperature resulted in a movement to an area 0,21 ± 0,03 m shallower, at a distance that was 65,2 ± 12,5 m further from the dam. The findings of this study should be expanded upon with further research into optimal values for flow variation that best suit grayling, and additionally explore whether there are other variables to better predict time and place for spawning. If the intention is to stop the decline of the grayling population, Järkvissle HEP should monitor the water temperature and adapt their flow regime to make softer transitions between high and low flow and keeping the flow at a stable interval during spawning and an additional four weeks to leave room for incubation.

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The project Austerland Energi at the eastern tip of the island of Gotland called Östergarnslandet was started as a response to the larger project Omställning Gotland funded by the Swedish government as an effort for a pilot project to convert to renewable energy to reach zero CO2-emissions for the country in 2045. The current plan for the Austerland energy system is a solar PV and wind production base with energy storage in the form of batteries and hydrogen which also can be used as vehicle fuel. The system will also continue to be connected to the grid and the annual electricity consumption for the area is 3.4 GWh, including both households and agricultural activities. The energy system has been modeled by Energenious, a company based in Berlin, Germany, who recommended a battery storage and electrically driven vehicles. The total investment cost of which was 30.099 MSEK and the operation and maintenance cost was 2,780 kSEK/year and the emission rate was 138 ton/year.  The yearly global horizontal irradiance is approximately 1,060 kWh/m2 at the location, the average wind speed is 7.5-8.5 m/s at 100 m hub height, but the wind turbine would have to be lower because of the Östergarnslandet being a protected area for the beautiful scenery. The heat production is mostly individual for each household or farm with either heat pumps or biomass boilers. There are no options for hydropower at the location and there is a desalination plant and a water treatment facility which provides the households and farms with drinking and irrigation water. The alternative energy storage solutions investigated in this thesis includes Flywheel, Redox flow battery, Pumped hydro, Deep Sea pumped hydro, Supercapacitors, Compressed air energy storage and Thermal energy storage. The first three of which were included in the models of the system. For the Future scenario changes of the energy consumption, the patterns of change for the households were based on national and regional trends the last 25 years.  The Austerland energy system was modeled using the software Homer Pro, where the base case of using batteries and batteries together with hydrogen storage was analyzed. The batteries were then switched to flywheels, a redox flow battery and a pumped hydro system respectively and analyzed with and without the hydrogen storage. The results showed that the recommended storage solution was still the batteries since the flywheel storage has too short storage duration, the flow battery storage is more expensive, and the pumped hydro storage has a complicated installation process. However, the recommended size of the batteries was half that of the recommended size provided by the Energenious models and the results also showed that the system would be suitable for a future change of the consumption patterns.  Lastly, the sustainability analysis showed that all the alternative energy storage devices have a slightly less CO2-emission rate, but none of the systems had a emission rate as low as that calculated by Energenious. However, when considering any of the components in an energy system, a more thorough investigation of environmental and social issues of the production process should be made. The investigation should include studying working conditions, wages, suspicions about child labour, process waste streams and other emissions streams and ethical values at the production company. / Projektet Austerland Energi är lokaliserat på ön Gotlands östra spets kallat Östergarnslandet. Projektet startades som ett efterfrågat initiativ genom det större projektet Omställning Gotland vilket är finansierat av den svenska regeringen. Omställning Gotland är för ett pilotprojekt för att ställa om till förnybar energi i landet och för att nå netto noll CO2-utsläpp i landet år 2045. Den nuvarande planen för Östergarns energisystem är en solcells- och vind produktions bas med energilagring i form av batterier och vätgas vilket också kan användas som fordonsbränsle. Systemet kommer även fortsättningsvis att vara anslutet till det lokala elnätet och den årliga elförbrukningen för området är 3.4 GWh inklusive både hushåll och lantbruksverksamhet. Energisystemet har modellerats av Energenious, ett företag baserat i Berlin, Tyskland, som rekommenderade batterilagring och elfordon snarare än att använda vätgas. Den totala investeringskostnaden var beräknad till 30,099 MSEK och drift- och underhållskostnaden var 2,780 kSEK/år och CO2-utsläppen var 138 ton/år.  Den årliga solinstrålningen på Östergarn är cirka 1,060 kWh/m2, medelvindhastigheten är 7.5-8.5 m/s vid 100 m navhöjd, men vindkraftverket måste vara lägre än så eftersom Östergarnslandet är ett skyddat område på grund av det vackra landskapet. Värme förses mestadels individuellt för varje hushåll eller gård med hjälp av antingen värmepumpar eller värmepannor som använder biomassa. Det finns ingen möjlighet för vattenkraft på denna del av Gotland men det finns en avsaltningsanläggning och en vattenreningsanläggning som förser hushållen och gårdarna med dricksvatten och vatten för bevattnings. De alternativa energilagrings lösningar som undersöks i denna avhandling inkluderar svänghjul, redox flödesbatteri, ett pumpkraftverk antingen på land eller till havs, superkondensatorer, trycklufts lagring och lagring av termisk energi. De tre förstnämnda alternativen ingick i modelleringen utförd i detta arbete. För undersökningen av framtida energiförbruknings förändringar, undersöktes utvecklingen för hushållen på nationella och regional nivå under de senaste 25 åren. Austerlands energisystem modellerades med hjälp av programvaran Homer Pro, där originalmodellen med endast eller batterier tillsammans med vätgaslagring analyserades. Batterierna byttes sedan till svänghjul, ett redox flödesbatteri respektive ett pumpkraftverk och analyserades med och utan vätgaslagringen. Resultaten visade att den rekommenderade lagringslösningen fortfarande var batterierna eftersom svänghjulet har för kort lagringstid, flödesbatteriet är för dyrt och pumpkraftverket har en mycket mer komplicerad installationsprocess. Den rekommenderade storleken på batterierna visade sig dock vara hälften av den rekommenderade storleken från Energenious-modellerna och resultaten visade också att systemet kommer vara lämpligt för den beräknade framtida konsumtionen. Slutligen visade hållbarhetsanalysen att alla alternativa energi lagringstyper har en något lägre koldioxidutsläpp, men inget av systemen hade en så lågt utsläpp som beräknat av Energenious. När någon av komponenterna i ett energisystem övervägs bör dock en mer grundlig undersökning av miljömässiga och sociala frågor i produktionsprocessen göras. Undersökningen bör omfatta arbetsvillkor, löner, misstankar om barnarbete, avfallshantering och andra utsläpp under produktionsprocessen och etiska värderingar hos produktionsföretaget.

This report travels through multiple disciplines to seek innovative and sustainable energy solutions for wastewater treatment plants. The first subject is a report about increased global temperatures and an over-exploitation of natural resources that threatens ecosystems worldwide. The situation is urgent where the current trend is a 2°C increase of global temperatures already in 2040. Furthermore, the energy-land nexus becomes increasingly apparent where the world is going from a dependence on easily accessible fossil resources to renewables limited by land allocation. A direction of the required transition is suggested where all actors of the society must contribute to quickly construct a new carbon-neutral resource and energy system. Wastewater treatment is as required today as it is in the future, but it may move towards a more emphasized role where resource management and energy recovery will be increasingly important. This report is a master’s thesis in energy engineering with an ambition to provide some clues, with a focus on energy, to how wastewater treatment plants can be successfully integrated within the future society. A background check is conducted in the cross section between science, society, politics and wastewater treatment. Above this, a layer of technological insights is applied, from where accessible energy pathways can be identified and evaluated. A not so distant step for wastewater treatment plants would be to absorb surplus renewable electricity and store it in chemical storage mediums, since biogas is already commonly produced and many times also refined to vehicle fuel. Such extra steps could be excellent ways of improving the integration of wastewater treatment plants into the society. New and innovative electric grid-connected energy storage technologies are required when large synchronous electric generators are being replaced by ‘smaller’ wind turbines and solar cells which are intermittent (variable) by nature. A transition of the society requires energy storages, balancing of electric grids, waste-resource utilization, energy efficiency measures etcetera… This interdisciplinary approach aims to identify relevant energy technologies for wastewater treatment plants that could represent decisive steps towards sustainability.

L'objectif de cette thèse est de proposer l'approche la plus appropriée afin de minimiser le coût d'intégration de petite éolienne dans un micro-réseau DC urbain. Une petit éolienne basé sur un machine synchrone à aimant permanent (MSAP) est considéré à étudier. Un état de l'art concernant les énergies renouvelables, micro-réseau DC, et la production d'énergie éolienne, est fait. Comme le capteur mécanique de cette structure est relativement d'un coût élevé, les différents types de contrôle pour un système de conversion éolienne sont présentés afin de choisir une structure active de conversion d'énergie et un MSAP sans capteur. Par conséquent, un estimateur de vitesse/position est nécessaire pour contrôler le système. Ainsi, les méthodes différentes proposées dans la littérature sont considérées et classifiées à étudier dans les détails, puis les plus efficaces et largement utilisés sont à vérifier dans la simulation et expérimentalement pour le système étudié. Les méthodes choisies sont: estimation de la flux de rotor avec boucle à verrouillage de phase (PLL), observateur à mode glissement (SMO), observateur de Luenberger d'ordre réduit, et filtre de Kalman étendu (EKF). Face à d'autres méthodes, l'estimateur basé sur un modèle EKF permet une commande sans capteur dans une large plage de vitesse et estime la vitesse de rotation avec une réponse rapide. Le réglage des paramètres EKF est le problème principal à sa mise en œuvre. Par conséquent, pour résoudre ce problème, la thèse présente une méthode adaptative, à savoir réglage-adaptatif d’EKF. En conséquence, et grâce à cette approche, le coût total du système de conversion est réduite et la performance est garantie et optimisée. / The aim of this thesis is to propose the most appropriate approach in order to minimize the cost of integration of a wind generator into a DC urban microgrid. A small-scale wind generator based on a permanent magnet synchronous machine (PMSM) is considered to be studied. A state of the art concerning the renewable energies, DC microgrid, and wind power generation is done. As the mechanical sensor for this structure is relatively of high cost, various types of wind conversion system control are presented in order to choose an energy conversion active structure and a sensorless PMSM. Therefore, a speed/position estimator is required to control the system. Thus, different methods proposed in literatures are considered and classified to be studied in details, and then the most effective and widely used ones are to be verified in simulation and experimentally for the studied system. The methods which are chosen are: rotor flux estimation with phase locked loop (PLL), sliding mode observer (SMO), Luenberger observer of reduced order, and extended Kalman filter (EKF). Facing to other methods, the EKF model-based estimator allows sensorless drive control in a wide speed range and estimates the rotation speed with a rapid response. The EKF parameters tuning is the main problem to its implementation. Hence, to solve this problem, the thesis introduces an adaptive method, i.e. adaptive-tuning EKF. As a result and grace to this approach, the total cost of conversion system is reduced and the performance is guaranteed and optimized.

The objective of the first part of master’s thesis is mapping the potential of various types of renewable sources in Europe and Czech Republic, especially solar energy, wind energy, water energy and biomass. There are described principals and ways of energy generation from these sources, brief overview of current technologies, and also their advantages and limitations. An important part is electric supply continuity from renewable sources, there are large differences and the resulting to restrictions on construction and connecting the units to the power system. In this work there are mentioned some impacts on network and rates of change of supply, some sources are also evaluated in terms of maximum power, that can be connected to the power system in our country. The conclusion of the first part is dedicated to energy storage technologies, which are suitable and usable for renewable sources, there are described their principals, properties, status of development and types of aplications, in which these technologies are used. This chapter also focusses on the price level of each technology. The second part of the thesis deals with 1 MWp on-grid photovoltaic power plant design. This design includes also the redox flow batteries accumulation, the first variant calculates on 24-hour steady energy supply, the second optimalized variant calculates on daily energy supply. There are the accumulation system costs estimated and also the payback period for the both variants. Additionally there is also determined minimum penalization for cost-effective operation. The last part is dedicated to changes of impact on the local grid and changes of system impacts, after the accumulation system is installed.