Bakgrund och problem: IAS 19 genomgår en ny förändring då en av redovisningsmetoderna för aktuariella vinster och förluster avskaffas. Korridormetoden, som fungerar som en utjämningsmekanism är den mest frekvent tillämpade metoden av stora börsnoterade bolag i Sverige. Avskaffningen av metoden väntas få effekter på dessa företags finansiella ställning då företag 2013 kommer tvingas ta fram sina oredovisade aktuariella förluster och redovisa dessa i sin helhet. Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att studera berörda aktörers uppfattning om nya IAS 19 som träder i kraft 2013 samt vilken påverkan den förväntas ha på börsnoterade företag som idag tillämpar korridormetoden. Metod: Genom intervjuer inhämtade vi material av kvalitativ natur. Data av denna karaktär är bäst lämpad för vår studie då vi vill undersöka inställningar till en förändring som ännu inte har trätt i kraft och som kommer beröra företags finansiella rapportering. Resultat och slutsats: Kritiken från två av de tillfrågade gällande korridormetoden rör inte den utjämningsmekanism som finns, utan snarare att metoden inte har genomfört sitt syfte som man upptäckt på senare år.  Detta har i sin tur lett till att företag samlat på sig stora aktuariella förluster i samband med sina pensionsåtaganden. Då IAS 19 har krävt flera omarbetningar och den senaste modifieringen av standarden kan ses som en tillfällig lösning tills att man kommer fram till en metod som speglar skulden på ett mer korrekt sätt. Borttagandet av korridormetoden har enligt respondenterna fler fördelar än nackdelar vilket för pensionsredovisningen vidare i utvecklingen. Dock medger alla respondenter att komplexiteten fortfarande är för bred för att IAS 19 inte ska kräva ännu mera omarbetning. Vi ser ännu inte att problemen med pensionsredovisningen är nära att nå sitt slut. Respondenternas attityder kring problemet är att en förenkling eftersträvas men vägledning som leder till lösning på problemet är ännu mer avlägset. Ingen av våra respondenter har framfört att borttagandet av korridormetoden är självaste lösningen på problemet. Förslag till vidare forskning: Vi skulle tycka det vore intressant om man undersökte efter övergången till en av de andra två metoderna för att mäta de effekter som slopandet av korridormetoden medförde. Hur stora aktuariella förluster fick företag inom Large Cap? / Background to problem: IAS 19, is undergoing a new change when one of the accounting methods to actuarial gains and losses is eliminated. The corridor method, which acts as a clearing mechanism is the most frequently applied method of large listed companies. Abolishment of the method is expected to have an impact on their financial position starting in the year 2013. Companies are forced to report its unrecognized actuarial losses and account these entirely. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to study the actors' perception of the new IAS 19 which comes into force in 2013 and the expected impact on the large listed companies applying the corridor method at present. Methodology: We acquired materials of a qualitative nature through interviews. Data of this nature is best suited for our study because we want to examine the settings for a change that has not yet entered into force and is expected to affect the company’s financial reporting. Conclusions: The criticism from two of the surveyed does not concern the meaning of the standard IAS 19 parse, but rather that the method has not fulfilled its purpose as exposed in recent years. This has in turn led to accumulated actuarial losses related to its pension commitments.IAS 19 has required several revisions, and the latest modification of the standard can be viewed as a temporary solution until a method that reflects the debt in a more accurate way is achieved. Removal of the corridor method, according to respondents, has more advantages than disadvantages which leads the pension accounting further in development. However, all respondents admit that the complexity is still too wide for IAS 19, and will require more adjustments. We do not see that the problems with pension accounting are close to reaching its end. Respondents' attitudes to the problem are that the simplification is needed, but guidance that leads to the solution of the problem is even more remote. None of our respondents have said that the removal of the corridor approach is the solution to the major problem of pension accounting. Suggestions for further research: We would find it interesting if a study is made after the transition to one of the other two methods, measuring the impact of the abolition of the corridor approach. How large actuarial losses were companies in the large-cap hit of?

Health problems of the human beings in a society are one of the main components of the social security systems due to the dimension of the financial burden it might bring on individuals, employers, insurance companies and governments. Morbidity measures, such as incidence and prevalence of a specific disease in a certain population enable researchers to estimate for individuals the probability of being diagnosed or being prone to the diseases. This information is usually not tractable because of the non-availability of the convenient data or recordings for many countries as well as Turkey. Even if it is available, it is commonly limited with largely varying characteristics about the type and coverage of the diseases. In this regard, the pattern that a population follows for an acute disease may not be the same for chronic diseases. Having those indicators determined for a group of insureds will enable underwriters to have more profitable and economical premium calculation and precision on required reserve estimation. v Based on their characteristics such as acute or chronic behaviour, the gender, and the location of residency of people, the diseases show different behaviour on their occurrences. From the insurer

Background to problem: Pensions play a big role in people's lives when life expectancy continues to increase. Companies can choose different ways of reporting their pension plans, and within the defined benefit pension plan poses the actuarial gains and losses that can be reported based on three different methods. Only one method will exist from 2013, how will the companies that use the other two handle the new situation? Purpose: Investigate why different companies have chosen to report its actuarial gains and losses along the corridor approach, directly against income or directly in equity. How will the companies that use the corridor method manage the situation when it will only be allowed to report in other comprehensive income as of 2013 and how will this affect them. Methodology: Data was collected through qualitative questionnaires sent to companies listed on Nasdaq OMX Nordic Stockholm, Large Cap and Mid Cap, and a qualitative interview. We felt that the best way to getting the desired information was to use qualitative questionnaires and an interview. Conclusions: The corridor method is chosen mainly because the actuarial gains and losses do not affect the company as much as when using the other two methods. To report directly to equity is preferred as the result of the company is not affected. The change from the corridor method to recognize in other comprehensive income as of 2013 will mean that the pension liability and equity is adversely affected. Suggestions for further research: Study how companies were affected by the implementation of the revised IAS 19. What was the impact on businesses in the method transition? / Bakgrund och problem: Pensionen spelar en stor roll i människors liv då livslängden fortsätter att öka. Företag kan välja olika sätt att redovisa sina pensionsplaner, och inom den förmånsbestämda pensionsplanen uppkommer det aktuariella vinster och förluster som kan redovisas med tre olika metoder. Från 2013 kommer endast en metod att finnas kvar, hur kommer då företagen som använder sig utav de andra metoderna att hantera situationen? Syfte: Undersöka varför olika företag har valt att redovisa sina aktuariella vinster och förluster utefter korridormetoden, direkt mot resultatet eller direkt mot eget kapital. Hur kommer de företag som använder korridormetoden hantera situationen när det endast kommer vara tillåtet att redovisa i övrigt totalresultat från 2013 och hur kommer det här påverka dem. Metod: Data samlades in genom en kvalitativ intervju samt enkäter som skickades till börsnoterade företag. Att använda oss av enkäter samt en intervju ansåg vi var det bästa sättet för att få fram önskad information. Slutsats: Korridormetoden väljs främst för att de aktuariella vinsterna och förlusterna inte påverkar företaget i samma utsträckning som vid användning av de andra två metoderna. Att redovisa direkt mot eget kapital föredras eftersom resultatet i företaget inte påverkas. Bytet från korridormetoden till att redovisa i övrigt totalresultat från 2013 kommer innebära att pensionsskulden ökar och eget kapital påverkas negativt. Förslag på vidare forskning: Studera hur företagen påverkats av implementeringen av den omarbetade IAS 19. Vad blev det för konsekvenser för företagen vid metodbytet?

The aim of this thesis is to develop algorithmic methods for computing particular performance measures of interest for a general class of discrete-based insurance risk models. We build upon and generalize the insurance risk models considered by Drekic and Mera (2011) and Alfa and Drekic (2007), by incorporating a threshold-based dividend system in which dividends only get paid provided some period of good financial health is sustained above a pre-specified threshold level. We employ two fundamental methods for calculating the performance measures under the more general framework. The first method adopts the matrix-analytic approach originally used by Alfa and Drekic (2007) to calculate various ruin-related probabilities of interest such as the trivariate distribution of the time of ruin, the surplus prior to ruin, and the deficit at ruin. Specifically, we begin by introducing a particular trivariate Markov process and then expressing its transition probability matrix in a block-matrix form. From this characterization, we next identify an initial probability vector for the process, from which certain important conditional probability vectors are defined. For these vectors to be computed efficiently, we derive recursive expressions for each of them. Subsequently, using these probability vectors, we derive expressions which enable the calculation of conditional ruin probabilities and, from which, their unconditional counterparts naturally follow. The second method used involves the first claim conditioning approach (i.e., condition on knowing the time the first claim occurs and its size) employed in many ruin theoretic articles including Drekic and Mera (2011). We derive expressions for the finite-ruin time based Gerber-Shiu function as well as the moments of the total dividends paid by a finite time horizon or before ruin occurs, whichever happens first. It turns out that both functions can be expressed in elegant, albeit long, recursive formulas. With the algorithmic derivations obtained from the two fundamental methods, we next focus on computational aspects of the model class by comparing six different types of models belonging to this class and providing numerical calculations for several parametric examples, highlighting the robustness and versatility of our model class. Finally, we identify several potential areas for future research and possible ways to optimize numerical calculations.

According to the Joint United Nations Programme against HIV/AIDS 2009 AIDS epidemic update, there were a total of 33.3 million (31.4 million–35.3 million) people living with HIV worldwide in 2009. The majority of the epidemic occurs in Sub-Saharan Africa. Of the 33.3 million people living with HIV worldwide in 2009, a vast majority of 22.5 million (20.9 million-24.2 million) were from Sub-Saharan Africa. There were 1.8 million (1.6 million-2.0 million) new infections and 1.3 million (1.1 million-1.5 million) AIDS-related deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa in 2009 (UNAIDS, 2009). Statistical models and analysis are required in order to further understand the dynamics of HIV/AIDS and in the design of intervention and control strategies. Despite the prevalence of this disease, its pathogenesis is still poorly understood. A thorough understanding of HIV and factors that influence progression of the disease is required in order to prevent the further spread of the virus. Modelling provides us with a means to understand and predict the progression of the disease better. Certain genetic factors play a key role in the way the disease progresses in a human body. For example HLA-B types and IL-10 genotypes are some of the genetic factors that have been independently associated with the control of HIV infection. Both HLA-B and IL-10 may influence the quality and magnitude of immune responses and IL-10 has also been shown to down regulate the expression of certain HLA molecules. Studies are therefore required to investigate how HLA-B types and IL-10 genotypes may interact to affect HIV infection outcomes. This dissertation uses the Sinikithemba study data from the HIV Pathogenesis Programme (HPP) at the Medical School, University of KwaZulu-Natal involving 450 HIV positive and treatment naive individuals to model how certain outcome biomarkers (CD4+ counts and viral loads) are associated with immuno genetic parameters (HLA-B types and IL-10 genotypes). The work also seeks to exploit novel longitudinal data methods in Statistics in order to efficiently model longitudinally measured HIV outcome data. Statistical techniques such as linear mixed models and generalized estimating equations were used to model this data. The findings from the current work agree quite closely with what is expected from the biological understanding of the disease. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2011.

The prevalence and the incidence are two primary epidemiological parameters in infectious disease modelling. The incidence is also closely related to the force of infection or the hazard of infection in survival analysis terms. The two measures carry the same information about a disease because they measure the rate at which new infections occur. The disease prevalence gives the proportion of infected individuals in the population at a given time, while the incidence is the rate of new infections. The thesis discusses methods for estimating HIV prevalence, incidence rates and the force of infection, against age and time, using cross-sectional seroprevalence data for pregnant women attending antenatal clinics. The data was collected on women aged 12 to 47 in rural KwaZulu-Natal for each of the years 2001 to 2006. The generalized linear model for binomial response is used extensively. First the logistic regression model is used to estimate annual HIV prevalence by age. It was found that the estimated prevalence for each year increases with age, to peaks of between 36% and 57% in the mid to late twenties, before declining steadily toward the forties. Fitted prevalence for 2001 is lower than for the other years across all ages. Several models for estimating the force of infection are discussed and applied. The fitted force of infection rises with age to a peak of 0.074 at age 15, and then decreases toward higher ages. The force of infection measures the potential risk of infection per individual per unit time. A proportional hazards model of the age to infection is applied to the data, and shows that additional variables such as partner’s age and the number of previous pregnancies do have a significant effect on the infection hazard. Studies for estimating incidence from multiple prevalence surveys are reviewed. The relative inclusion rate (RIR), accounting for the fact that the probability of inclusion in a prevalence sample depends on the individual’s HIV status, and its role in incidence estimation is discussed as a possible future approach of extending the current work. / Thesis (M.Sc.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2011.

本文利用隨機控制理論，延續Chang et al. ( 2002 )，採用總和精算成本法，考慮提撥率風險( Haberman and Sung ( 1994 ) )極小的情況下，推導確定給付退休基金之最適提撥與資產配置策略封閉解，資產配置部分考慮股票市場投資組合、永續債券、現金三種部位。 套用公務人員退撫基金第四次精算報告之數據，透過Matlab重覆模擬1,000次，數值結果如下： 1.正常成本與提撥金額呈遞增趨勢，且兩數據差距甚小，符合風險評估函數所設定之提撥率風險極小化的要求。十年控制期間中，正常成本成長5.32倍，從1.03億增加至5.49億；提撥金額成長16.65倍，從0.33億增加至5.56億。275期以前正常成本大於提撥；275之後提撥大於正常成本。 2.初期提撥金額小於給付金額，且投資報酬不足以彌補其差額，因此造成基金規模縮小，但由於提撥金額成長速率大於給付支出，使得基金規模下降程度趨緩，隨後開始穩定成長。十年控制期間中，基金規模從起始的1,000億下降至840億，再上升至約1,314億。 3.股票與債券之持有或放空的部位越多，基金報酬率波動越大，基金規模越大時，可承擔風險的容量增加，因此傾向高風險投資；基金規模越小時，風險承受度變小，所以投資策略反而趨向保守。股票最多持有99.18%、放空90%；債券最多持有293.5%、放空140.14%。 / In this study, we continue using the model of Chang et al. ( 2002 ), which is based on stochastic control theory to study the dynamic funding policy and investment strategy for defined benefit pension plans. The model includes three investable assets: stock market portfolio, consol bond, and cash. We apply “Aggregate Actuarial Cost Method,” so only the contribution rate risk proposed in Haberman and Sung ( 1994 ) is considered when measuring the performance. In addition, we analyzed the data from Taiwan Public Employees Retirement System (Tai-PERS) investigate the optimal contribution and asset allocation through the proposed model and arrived at the following conclusion: 1.The trend of increasing normal cost and contribution as well as the small disparity tally with the requirement of minimum contribution risk as defined in the loss function. 2.In the beginning, the return of investment and contribution are insufficient to cover the benefit payment, causing the fund level to shrink; but as the rate of contribution increases over time and surpasses the benefit payments, the fund level will cease to shrink, and start to grow gradually. 3.There is a positive correlation between the fund level and the risk of investment. In other words, the larger the size of the fund level, the higher the possibility of holding or short selling risky assets.

A indústria de seguros é uma atividade econômica relativamente jovem, possuindo raízes na revolução industrial. O desenvolvimento dessa indústria ocorreu de forma bastante intensa durante o século passado, quando a atividade passou a ser inserida na área de gestão de riscos. As Companhias de Seguros que trabalham nesse ambiente de negócio fundamentam todo o processo de precificação dos seus produtos em rígidas bases técnicas e atuariais. O presente trabalho dedica-se ao estudo dessas questões, abordando especificamente os seguros de vida, com ênfase à cobertura de morte. A pesquisa tem por objetivo comparar duas modalidades distintas de seguros que são ofertadas ao mercado: o seguro de vida individual e o seguro de vida em grupo. Embora ofereçam aos consumidores coberturas bastante similares, ambas as modalidades devem obedecer a requisitos e princípios técnicos diferenciados por parte das instituições que fazem a sua gestão. / The insurance industry is a relatively young economic activity; its bases are found in the industrial revolution. The development of such industry occurred in a very intense way in the last century, when the activity started being placed in the area of management of risks. The insurance companies that work in this business environment base the whole pricing process of their products on rigid technical and actuarial bases. The present work aims at studying these questions, focusing on the life insurance, with emphasis on the death coverage. The research intends to explore and compare two distinct modalities of insurance that are offered to the market: the individual life insurance and the group life insurance. Even though they offer similar coverage, they must fulfill requirements and different technical principles ruled by the institutions which are responsible for their management.

A indústria de seguros é uma atividade econômica relativamente jovem, possuindo raízes na revolução industrial. O desenvolvimento dessa indústria ocorreu de forma bastante intensa durante o século passado, quando a atividade passou a ser inserida na área de gestão de riscos. As Companhias de Seguros que trabalham nesse ambiente de negócio fundamentam todo o processo de precificação dos seus produtos em rígidas bases técnicas e atuariais. O presente trabalho dedica-se ao estudo dessas questões, abordando especificamente os seguros de vida, com ênfase à cobertura de morte. A pesquisa tem por objetivo comparar duas modalidades distintas de seguros que são ofertadas ao mercado: o seguro de vida individual e o seguro de vida em grupo. Embora ofereçam aos consumidores coberturas bastante similares, ambas as modalidades devem obedecer a requisitos e princípios técnicos diferenciados por parte das instituições que fazem a sua gestão. / The insurance industry is a relatively young economic activity; its bases are found in the industrial revolution. The development of such industry occurred in a very intense way in the last century, when the activity started being placed in the area of management of risks. The insurance companies that work in this business environment base the whole pricing process of their products on rigid technical and actuarial bases. The present work aims at studying these questions, focusing on the life insurance, with emphasis on the death coverage. The research intends to explore and compare two distinct modalities of insurance that are offered to the market: the individual life insurance and the group life insurance. Even though they offer similar coverage, they must fulfill requirements and different technical principles ruled by the institutions which are responsible for their management.

A indústria de seguros é uma atividade econômica relativamente jovem, possuindo raízes na revolução industrial. O desenvolvimento dessa indústria ocorreu de forma bastante intensa durante o século passado, quando a atividade passou a ser inserida na área de gestão de riscos. As Companhias de Seguros que trabalham nesse ambiente de negócio fundamentam todo o processo de precificação dos seus produtos em rígidas bases técnicas e atuariais. O presente trabalho dedica-se ao estudo dessas questões, abordando especificamente os seguros de vida, com ênfase à cobertura de morte. A pesquisa tem por objetivo comparar duas modalidades distintas de seguros que são ofertadas ao mercado: o seguro de vida individual e o seguro de vida em grupo. Embora ofereçam aos consumidores coberturas bastante similares, ambas as modalidades devem obedecer a requisitos e princípios técnicos diferenciados por parte das instituições que fazem a sua gestão. / The insurance industry is a relatively young economic activity; its bases are found in the industrial revolution. The development of such industry occurred in a very intense way in the last century, when the activity started being placed in the area of management of risks. The insurance companies that work in this business environment base the whole pricing process of their products on rigid technical and actuarial bases. The present work aims at studying these questions, focusing on the life insurance, with emphasis on the death coverage. The research intends to explore and compare two distinct modalities of insurance that are offered to the market: the individual life insurance and the group life insurance. Even though they offer similar coverage, they must fulfill requirements and different technical principles ruled by the institutions which are responsible for their management.