nÃo hà / Este estudo objetiva analisar, comparativamente, o nÃvel de desenvolvimento previdenciÃrio dos Regimes PrÃprios de PrevidÃncia Social (RPPSs) dos municÃpios do Estado do Cearà no perÃodo de 2006 a 2008 que possuem dados disponÃveis na internet. Para esse fim, fez-se uso de pesquisa bibliogrÃfica e coleta de dados. Trata-se de um estudo que envolveu informaÃÃes do Demonstrativo Anual das AvaliaÃÃes Atuariais (DRAA), Demonstrativo PrevidenciÃrio e outros. ApÃs a coleta dos dados, foi realizado o cÃlculo dos indicadores que compÃem o Ãndice de Desenvolvimento PrevidenciÃrio (IDP). SÃo eles: Reservas ConstituÃdas (IRC), Comprometimento da RCL (DPI), Maturidade PrevidenciÃria (IMP), Comprometimento Corrente (ICC), Comprometimento Fiscal com Pessoal (IFP) e Enquadramento Legal (CRP). Os resultados do estudo mostram que as recentes mudanÃas ocorridas na legislaÃÃo estÃo permitindo a construÃÃo e o crescimento de sistemas previdenciÃrios sustentÃveis, pois, dos vinte e nove municÃpios analisados, a maioria apresentou uma evoluÃÃo no nÃvel de desenvolvimento previdenciÃrio no decorrer dos anos 2006 a 2008, bem como sugere a inclusÃo do custo suplementar como mais um indicador de gestÃo do IDP, cuja influÃncia foi demonstrada atravÃs de um modelo economÃtrico. / The study aims to analyze comparatively the level of development of the social security to the public sector (RPPSs - Regimes PrÃprios de PrevidÃncia Social) in cities of the State of Cearà â Brazil, from the period of 2006 to 2008, with available data on the Internet. To this end, it was made use of bibliography and data collection. The study dealt with information taken from the Annual Statement of Actuarial Valuations (DRAA â Demonstrativo Anual das AvaliaÃÃes Atuariais), Social Security Statement and others. After collecting the data, it was performed the calculation of the indicators that construct the Social Security Development Index (IDP â Ãndice de Desenvolvimento PrevidenciÃrio). They are indicators of: 1) incorporated reserves (IRC â Indicador das Reservas ConstituÃdas); 2) impairment of net current revenues (DPI â DÃvida PÃblica ImplÃcita); 3) pension plans maturity (IMP â Indicador de Maturidade PrevidenciÃria); 4) commitment current (ICC â Indicador de Comprometimento Corrente); 5) commitment to personal tax (IFP â Indicador de Comprometimento Fiscal com Pessoal); and 6) legal framework (CRP â Certificado de Regularidade PrevidenciÃria). The results of the study show that recent changes in legislation are allowing the construction and growth of sustainable pension systems, since most of the twenty-nine cities examined showed a change in level of pension plans development in the years 2006 to 2008, and suggests the inclusion of additional cost as another indicator of management of the IDP, whose influence was demonstrated by an econometric model.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:33:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Narlon Gutierre Nogueira.pdf: 3001919 bytes, checksum: b237d647dfd92e71274680800baeb9e8 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-03-15 / Fundo Mackenzie de Pesquisa / Study of the systems pertaining to social security of public employees in Brazil, with emphasis on financial and actuarial balance. Analyze the relationship between the concept of citizenship and social rights, and the process of constitutionalization and the affirmation of international law. Describes the emergence and consolidation of the right to social security in the world and models of social insurance and social security. Studies the evolution of social security in Brazil, emphasizing its relations with the political, social and economic. Addresses the crisis and reforms of pension systems, occurred in recent decades, particularly in Latin America and Europe. Analyze the political process and content of pension reform in Brazil. Studies the emergence and evolution of security systems for public servants in Brazil, its three main periods (up to 1988, from 1988 to 1998 and after 1998), and its relations with the legal hiring servers. Details the constitutional principle of financial and actuarial balance of pension schemes. Study the concepts of public policy. Argues that the construction of financial and actuarial balance of pension schemes for public servants should be treated as a public policy of the State. Analyzes the situation of the pension pertaining to social security schemes of civil servants in Brazil, in all the entities of the federation who have adopted them, constructing indicators based on the relationship between actuarial deficit, the current net revenue, staff costs and quantity of active servers and retireds. Addresses issues that impact the financial and actuarial balance of pension schemes for public servants and that may be consideredin future reforms. / Estudo sobre os regimes próprios de previdência social dos servidores públicos no Brasil, com ênfase no equilíbrio financeiro e atuarial. Analisa a relação entre o conceito de cidadania e os direitos sociais, e o processo de constitucionalização e afirmação destes no âmbito do direito internacional. Descreve o surgimento e a consolidação do direito à previdência social no mundo e os modelos de seguro social e seguridade social. Estuda a evolução da previdência social no Brasil, enfatizando suas relações com a esfera política, social e econômica. Aborda a crise e as reformas dos sistemas previdenciários, ocorridas nas últimas décadas, em especial nos países da América Latina e da Europa. Analisa o processo político e o conteúdo das reformas previdenciárias no Brasil. Estuda o surgimento e evolução dos regimes de previdência dos servidores públicos no Brasil, em seus três períodos principais (até 1988; de 1988 a 1998; após 1998), e suas relações com o regime jurídico de contratação dos servidores. Detalha o princípio constitucional do equilíbrio financeiro e atuarial dos regimes de previdência. Estuda os conceitos de políticas públicas. Sustenta que a construção do equilíbrio financeiro e atuarial dos regimes de previdência dos servidores públicos deve ser tratada como uma política pública de Estado. Analisa a situação atuarial dos regimes próprios de previdência social dos servidores públicos civis no Brasil, em todos os entes da federação que os adotaram, construindo indicadores a partir da relação entre déficit atuarial, receita corrente líquida, despesas com pessoal e quantitativo de servidores ativos e inativos. Aborda questões que impactam o equilíbrio financeiro e atuarial dos regimes de previdência dos servidores públicos e que poderão ser consideradas em futuras reformas.

Le pilotage technique des risques en Afrique subsaharienne francophone est une notion souvent absente dans la pratique. En effet, dans cette zone, il est très facile de rencontrer des banques, compagnies d'assurance et institutions de retraite, menées leurs activités sans intégrer le risque1 au coeur de leur gestion. Cette situation explique, a priori, l'absence des bases de données fiables pour des études quantitatives. La présente thèse, qui se veut complémentaire aux travaux de KAMEGA A2., s'intéresse à la conception des outils actuariels pertinents adaptés au pilotage technique des risques en Afrique subsaharienne francophone, qui peuvent être utilisés aussi bien par les gouvernements de cette zone que dans l'industrie des assurances et des banques. Au regard du développement progressif des pays de la zone CIPRES, nous estimons que le générateur de scénarios économiques (GSE) est l'outil commun au pilotage technique des risques liés aux activités des États et de l'industrie des banques et des assurances. Notons que le GSE est un outil capable de projeter les variables économiques et financières dans un système cohérent. Cette information riche permettra, par exemple, aux gouvernements de ces pays, d'élaborer leurs budgets, de mobiliser des ressources sur le marché financier local et de piloter techniquement la dette publique. Dans le contexte de la conception du GSE, l'apport de cette thèse consiste à spécifier dans un premier temps des modèles mathématiques, adaptés au contexte de la zone CIPRES, couvrant un nombre important de variables économiques et financières. Dans un second temps, des méthodes de calibrage sont présentées dans le contexte d'absence de données (avis des experts) ou de présence des données (approches statistiques). Une attention particulière est accordée à l'extension du GSE dans l'optique de prendre en compte les besoins futurs des professionnels de la zone CIPRES. Cette thèse accorde également une importance aux application du GSE dans le développement des pays de la zone CIPRES à travers l'apport de la courbe des taux dans l'analyse et la conduite de la politique monétaire, la prévision des grandeurs économiques et financières, l'estimation des probabilités de défaut implicites et des taux de recouvrement des États et des entreprises dans un contexte de notation en monnaie locale et d'application du dispositif Bâle II/III dans le courant de 2018. Dans le cadre des régimes de retraite, ces outils actuariels sont utiles pour déterminer les paramètres de pilotage du régime, notamment l'évaluation « best estimate » des engagements du régime, le financement et la stratégie d'allocation des actifs / The technical management of risks in Francophone Sub-Saharan Africa is often lacking in practice. In fact, in this zone, it is very easy to meet banks, insurance companies and pension institutions, doing their activities without integrating risk at the core of their management. This situation explains, a priori, the absence of reliable databases for quantitative studies. This thesis, which is complementary to work of KAMEGA A., focuses on the design of relevant actuarial tools adapted to technical risk management in sub-Saharan Africa, which can be used by both the governments of this zone and the insurance and banks industry. In view of the gradual development of the countries in the CIPRES zone, we believe that the economic scenario generator (ESG) is the common tool for the technical management of risks linked to the activities of the states and the banking and insurance industry. Note that the GSE is a tool able to forecast the economic and financial variables into a coherent system. This rich information will allow, for example, the governments of these countries to draw up their budgets mobilize resources on the local financial market and manage technically the public debt. In the context of the design of the GSE, the contribution of this thesis consists to specify initially mathematical models, adapted to the context of the CIPRES zone, covering a large number of economic and financial variables. In a second step, calibration methods are presented in the context of lack of data (expert opinion) or presence of data (statistical approaches). Particular attention is given to the extension of the GSE in order to take into account the future needs of professionals of the CIPRES zone. This thesis also gives importance to the application of the GSE in the development of the countries of the CIPRES zone through the contribution of the yield curve in the analysis and conduct of monetary policy, the forecasting of economic and financial quantities, Estimation of the probabilities of implicit defaults and the recovery rates of states and firms in the context of a local currency rating and the application of the Basel II / III framework in the course of 2018. Under the pension plans, these actuarial tools are useful in determining of the management parameters of the plan, including the "best estimate" of plan commitments, funding and asset allocation strategy

Cette thèse traite de portefeuilles d’assurance avec risques dépendants en théorie du risque.<p>Le premier chapitre traite les modèles avec risques équicorrelés. Nous proposons une structure mathématique qui amène à une fonction génératrice de probabilités particulière (fgp) proposé par Tallis. Cette fgp implique des variables équicorrelées. Puis, nous étudions l’effet de ce type de dépendance sur des quantités d’intérêt dans la littérature actuarielle telle que la fonction de répartition de la somme des montants des sinistres, les primes stop-loss et les probabilités de ruine sur horizon fini. Nous utilisons la structure proposée pour corriger des erreurs dans la littérature dues au fait que plusieurs auteurs agissaient comme si la somme des variables aléatoires équicorrélés aient nécessairement la fgp proposée par Tallis. <p><p>Dans le second chapitre, nous proposons un modèle qui combine les modèles avec chocs et les modèles avec mélanges communs en introduisant une variable qui contrôle le niveau du choc. Dans le cadre de ce nouveau modèle, nous considérons deux applications où nous généralisons le modèle de Bernoulli avec choc et le modèle de Poisson avec choc. Nous étudions, dans les deux applications, l’effet de la dépendance sur la fonction de répartition des montants des sinistres, les primes stop-loss et les probabilités de ruine sur horizon fini et infini. Pour la deuxième application, nous proposons une construction basée sur les copules qui permet de contrôler le niveau de dépendance avec le niveau du choc.<p><p>Dans le troisième chapitre, nous proposons, une généralisation du modèle classique de Poisson où les montants des sinistres et les intersinistres sont supposés dépendants. Nous calculons la transformée de Laplace des probabilités de survie. Dans le cas particulier où les montants des sinistres ont une distribution exponentielle nous obtenons des formules explicites pour les probabilités de survie. <p><p>Dans le quatrième chapitre nous généralisons le modèle classique de Poisson en introduisant de la dépendance entre les intersinistres. Nous utilisons le lien entre les files fluides et le processus du risque pour modéliser la dépendance. Nous calculons les probabilités de survie en utilisant un algorithme numérique et nous traitons le cas où les montants de<p>sinistres et les intersinistres ont des distributions de type phase.<p> / Doctorat en Sciences / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Cette thèse a pour objectif d’explorer plusieurs approches pour traiter des comportements extrêmes. Nous commençons par définir une nouvelle classe M de fonctions positives et mesurables à support R^+ ayant un comportement asymptotique polynomial, strictement plus grande que la classe de fonctions à variation régulière (RV). Les fonctions U∊M sont identifiées à un indice réel, appelé le M -indice de U, correspondant à l’indice de RV si U est RV. Nous démontrons des propriétés algébriques et analytiques, ainsi que plusieurs caractérisations de M. Nous pouvons étendre M et certaines de ses propriétés à deux classes, M_∞ et M_(-∞), ensembles de fonctions dont le comportement asymptotique est de type e^x et e^(-x) respectivement. Nous généralisons également le théorème de Karamata et le théorème Taubérien de Karamata à M, et mettons en relation le domaine d’attraction de Fréchet et M, ainsi que celui de Gumbel et M_(-∞). Nous pouvons proposer une preuve unifiée des théorèmes Taubériens de type exponentiel donnés par Kohlbecker, de Bruijn, et Kasahara, en utilisant une caractérisation de M. La seconde partie de la thèse traite d’une part de l’analyse empirique des avantages économiques générées par le partenariat de Swiss Life France avec un organisme tiers, révélant des relations non linéaires entre les variables impliquées dans l’étude; d’autre part de l’analyse empirique des relations entre les risques de mortalité et de marché mettant en évidence une dépendance faible entre ces extrêmes. Dans la dernière partie de la thèse, nous proposons un nouveau modèle relationnel à risque accéléré, intégré dans une régression de Poisson, montrant un excellent ajustement aux données réelles. / The main objective of this thesis is to explore several approaches to deal with extreme behaviors. We start defining a new class M of positive and measurable functions with support R^+ and polynomial asymptotic tail behavior, strictly larger than the class of regularly varying (RV) functions. The functions U∊M are identified by a real index, called the M-index of U, which corresponds to the RV index when U is RV. Algebraic and analytic properties and characterizations of M are given. M is extended into two classes, called M_∞ and M_(-∞), of which functions have exponential asymptotic tail behaviors of the types e^x and e^(-x) respectively. Properties satisfied on M also hold on those classes. Extensions on M of Karamata’s theorem and Karamata’s Tauberian theorem are given. Relations between the domain of attraction of Fréchet and M, as well as that of Gumbel and M_(-∞) are provided. Using a characterization of M, a unified proof of the Tauberian theorems of exponential type given by Kohlbecker, de Bruijn, and Kasahara is given. The second part of the thesis presents on one hand an empirical analysis on the economic benefits generated by the partnership of Swiss Life France with a third-party organization revealing non-linear relations between variables involved in the study; on the other hand, an empirical study on relations between mortality and market risks provides evidence of weak dependence between these extremes. The last part of the thesis presents an accelerated hazard relational model, embedded in a Poisson regression framework, showing an excellent fit to real data.

In this thesis, we first go through classical results from the field of credibility theory. One of the most well-known models in the field is the Büuhlmann-Straub model. The model is relatively straightforward to apply in practice and is widely used. A major advantage of the model is its simplicity and intuitive dependency on its model parameters. From our perspective, the main drawback is the assumption regarding uncorrelated data. We show that the correlation can be used to cancel observational noise and therefore obtain more accurate estimators. This leads to an extended credibility formula that contains the Bühlmann-Straub model as a special case. This comes at the cost of introducing singularities which may cause the estimator to behave unexpectedly under certain circumstances. Further research is needed to better understand how often the circumstances are met in practice and if transforming the optimal weights could be a way forward in such cases. Finally, a simulation study based on real-world data shows that the proposed model outperforms the Bühlmann-Straub model.

OPSOMMING Gebeurlikhede kan omskryf word as onsekere omstandighede van positiewe of negatiewe aard wat, onafhanklik van die verweerder se optrede en indien dit sou realiseer, waarskynlik 'n persoon se gesondheid, inkomste, verdienvermoë, lewenskwaliteit, lewensverwagting of onderhoudsafhanklikheid in die toekoms kan beïnvloed of in die verlede kon beïnvloed het en wat gevolglik op billike en realistiese wyse in ag geneem moet word ter bepaling van die skadevergoedingsbedrag. Die skadevergoedingsbedrag kan vanweë gebeurlikhede verminder of vermeerder word waar die eiser wel met `n oorwig van waarskynlikheid die volle omvang van die skade bewys het, maar die hof nie kon oortuig dat geen ander oorsaak die skade waarskynlik ook sou kon veroorsaak nie (sg "gebeurlikheids-aanpassings"). In gevalle waar die eiser nie die volle omvang van die skade op `n oorwig van waarskynlikheid kon bewys nie, kan die hof nogtans `n verminderde bedrag toeken op grond van die gebeurlikheid dat die skade wel waarskynlik in die toekoms kan realiseer (sg "gebeurlikheidstoekennings"). Die eiser moet getuienis voorlê van gebeurlikhede wat die skadevergoedingsbedrag sal verhoog, en die verweerder van gebeurlikhede wat die skadevergoedingsbedrag sal verlaag. Die waarskynlikheid dat die gebeurlikheid sal realiseer, moet deur die hof aan die hand van objektiewe maatstawwe en op grond van feitelike bewerings en logiese afleidings uit deskundige en ander getuienis in die vorm van `n waarskynlikheidsgraad van tussen vyf persent en tagtig persent uitgedruk word. Hipotetiese kousaliteit word deur die hof aangewend om gebeurlikhede op `n billike wyse in ag te neem en verwys na die kousale ketting van hipotetiese feite wat waarskynlik sou gerealiseer het indien die skadestigtende gebeurtenis nie plaasgevind het nie. Gebeurlikhede kan in twee kategorieë geklassifiseer word: Algemene gebeurlikhede wat gewoonlik in enige stadium by alle persone kan voorkom (bv vroeë dood, siekte ens) en spesifieke gebeurlikhede wat gewoonlik op spesifieke tydstippe by spesifieke individue kan voorkom (bv hertroue, egskeiding ens). Terwyl die hof geregtelik kennis behoort te kan neem van die invloed van algemene gebeurlikhede, behoort die hof hoofsaaklik op grond van ondersteunende getuienis van die invloed van spesifieke gebeurlikhede oortuig te word. Algemene gebeurlikheidsaanpassings is gewoonlik relatief laag (gemiddeld tien persent), terwyl gebeurlikheidsaanpassings vir spesifieke gebeurlikhede fluktueer (gewoonlik tussen vyf persent en vyftig persent), afhangende van die getuienis en omstandighede van die eiser. Gebeurlikheidstoekennings is gewoonlik laer as vyftig persent. SUMMARY Contingencies can be described as uncertain circumstances of a positive or negative nature which, independent of the defendant's conduct and if it should realise, would probably influence a person's health, income, earning capacity, quality of life, life expectancy or dependency on support in future or could have done so in the past, and which must consequently be taken into account in a fair and realistic manner in the quantification of damages. Contingencies can be used to increase or reduce damages in circumstances where the plaintiff succeeded in proving the full loss on a preponderance of probability, but could not convince the court that there was no probability that any other cause could also have given rise to the loss (so-called "contingency adjustments"). In circumstances where the plaintiff could not prove the full loss on a preponderance of probability, the court can nevertheless award a reduced amount on the basis of the contingency that loss could probably realise in future (so-called "contingency allowances"). The plaintiff must adduce evidence of contingencies that can increase damages, and the defendant of contingencies that can reduce damages. The degree of probability that the contingency will realise, must be expressed by the court as a percentage of between five percent and eighty percent, in view of objective measures and on the basis of factual allegations and logical deductions derived from expert and other evidence. Hypothetical causation assists the court in taking account of contingencies in a fair manner and refers to the causal link of hypothetical events which would probably have realised if the damage-causing event did not occur. Contingencies can be classified into two categories: General contingencies that usually can be present in the lives of all people at any point in time (eg early death, sickness, etc) and specific contingencies that usually are present in the lives of specific individuals at specific times (eg remarriage, divorce, etc). While the court should be able to take legal notice of the influence of general contingencies, the court should be convinced of the influence of specific contingencies primarily on the basis of supporting evidence. General contingency adjustments are usually relatively low (on average ten per cent), while contingency adjustments for specific contingencies fluctuate (usually between five per cent and fifty per cent), depending on the evidence and circumstances of the plaintiff. Contingency allowances are usually lower than fifty per cent. / Jurisprudence / LL.D

La thèse cherche à travers des critères économiques, sociaux et financiers à définir pour laFrance un système de retraite optimal. Elle procède à l’analyse critique de l’ensemble desréformes entreprises depuis la parution du Livre Blanc sur les retraites (1991), et engage despistes de mesures complémentaires pour les améliorer. Elle s’articule autour de deux idéesprincipales : d’une part, les principales réformes (Balladur, 1993 et Fillon, 2003) sont d’ordreparamétrique et entendent préserver la logique de solidarité intergénérationnelle ; d’autre part,sous certaines conditions, elles peuvent être améliorées par l’adjonction de mesuresstructurelles sous forme d’introduction d’une dose de capitalisation obligatoire.L’argumentation s’appuie à la fois sur une réflexion théorique, fondée notamment sur lesmodèles à générations imbriquées, la notion de taxe sur la poursuite d’activité aux âgesavancés, et sur une étude empirique internationale mesurant l’impact d’une capitalisationsupplémentaire sur l’épargne nationale. Globalement, l’objectif de la thèse est de montrerl’existence de deux dilemmes auxquels font face les pouvoirs publics dans la recherche desolutions à la crise des retraites: (1) garder le système de retraite actuel qui offre peud’incitations à la poursuite de toute activité professionnelle aux âges avancés ou aller versplus d’individualisation des droits au risque de sacrifier la solidarité intergénérationnelle ; (2)quelle dose, quelle(s) forme(s) et quelle réglementation de la capitalisation qui permettentd’augmenter l’épargne nationale au lieu de la réduire ? / This dissertation tries to define an optimal retirement system for France based on economic,social and financial criteria. It reviews the reforms that have been undertaken since thepublication of the Livre Blanc sur les retraites in 1991, and highlights additional measuresthat could be implemented to enhance these reforms. The dissertation is structured around twomain ideas: on the one hand, the main reforms (Balladur, 1993 and Fillon, 2003) are ofparametric nature and intend to preserve intergenerational solidarity; on the other hand, undercertain conditions, they can be improved by incorporating a funded system. The analysis relyon both a theoretical framework, notably overlapping generations models, and anempirical approach to assess the impact of additional capitalization on national saving.Overall, the dissertation aims to show that the authorities face two main dilemma whendealing with the retirement crisis: (1) keep the current retirement system, which does notencourage the elderly to remain in the workforce, or move toward a funded system at the riskof giving up intergenerational solidarity; (2) what dose, forms and regulations of fundingcould stimulate national savings?

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-25T16:44:47Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao Antonio Cordeiro Filho.pdf: 1123844 bytes, checksum: b272bb86eae7f543078eaba6f4f6d0a7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006-05-17 / Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo / The Brazilian Supplemental Health System has gone through several phases since it was first established and long before any regulations. The law number 9656/98 was responsible for establishing it and for establishing the National Agency of the Supplemental Health ANS as well. After this law, many alterations and adaptations took place, among them there were many provisional remedies and dozens of norms and regulations. Economical crises and income reduction were responsible for a loss of more than six million users in the market of supplemental health. These users now have to, one more time, search for assistance at the Unique System of Health SUS (a public system). There is, therefore, idleness in this sector (which is now concentrated in great corporations) and which could favor the population, if only technical, commercial, administrative and legal alterations and innovations were introduced. The present study, with this in mind, suggests an alternative for the increase of the health services rendered in this country. It is the capitation system, associated with the sharing among the public and private sectors. That system already works in the odontological area. The study also analyses the characteristics of the high complex illnesses, which can present great impediments for the development of the supplemental health. As we consider the commercialization alternatives of this differentiated plan: The capitation , it was possible to consider changes in the market extent. We concluded that this alternative is viable and it can bring great benefits to the market of supplemental health, specially for the small operators, it can also benefit its development and, consequently, the health of the Brazilian people / A saúde suplementar brasileira passou por várias fases desde sua criação, muito antes de qualquer marco regulatório. Este ocorreu com a aprovação da lei 9656/98, que deu origem à Agência Nacional da Saúde Suplementar - ANS. Após essa lei, ocorreram muitas alterações e adaptações, com medidas provisórias e dezenas de normas e regulamentações. Crises econômicas e queda de renda levaram o mercado de saúde suplementar a perder mais de seis milhões de usuários, que estão novamente às portas do Sistema Único de Saúde - SUS. Há, portanto, uma ociosidade no setor - atualmente concentrado em grandes corporações - que pode ser revertida a favor da população, mediante alterações e inovações de caráter técnico, comercial, administrativo e legal. Diante desse quadro, o presente estudo propõe uma alternativa para o desenvolvimento da prestação de serviços de saúde no país. Trata-se do sistema de capitation, acoplado ao compartilhamento entre os setores público e privado. Esse sistema já funciona na área odontológica. Considera ainda as características das enfermidades que envolvem a alta complexidade, as quais podem representar grandes entraves para o desenvolvimento da saúde suplementar. Para investigar a aceitação desse sistema para aplicação junto às PMEs com a formatação e variações propostas entre as operadoras de saúde suplementar - em vista de minha experiência no setor - foram efetuadas inúmeras visitas e reuniões à operadoras com perguntas básicas sobre o que se passa no mercado atual e suas possibilidades de mudança e solicitando reflexões à respeito. Com base nessas respostas e considerando alternativas de comercialização, desse plano diferenciado o capitation - foi possível refletir sobre possibilidades de mudança na abrangência do mercado, concluindo-se que essa alternativa é viável e pode trazer grandes benefícios ao mercado de saúde suplementar, seu desenvolvimento e conseqüentemente à saúde dos brasileiros.

退休金計畫依給付方式的設計，可以分為兩大體系：確定給付退休金計畫與確定提撥退休金計畫。無論是公共退休金計畫或是企業退休金計畫，最初實行時多採用確定給付的方式來實施。但隨著經濟環境的變遷，部份的國家與企業雇主，已開始傾向確定提撥方式的採用。本論文有鑑於退休金的改革潮流，欲探討確定提撥退休金計畫的實施回顧與給付的精算分析。 本論文分為四個主要部分，分別為：(1)確定提撥計畫的理論架構回顧；(2)主要國家制度的分析；(3)精算模型的建立與精算假設的分析；與(4)精算假設的給定與給付水準的模擬分析。在主要國家制度的回顧上，公共退休金計畫方面以新加坡「中央公積金制」與智利「公共退休金私有化」為探討的對象；在企業退休金計畫方面則以美國為討論對象。實證分析部分，則是先建立確定提撥退休金精算模型，再撰寫模擬程式介面，並以我國1998年「勞工退休金條例」草案為模擬對象，給定精算假設進行模擬，最後分析精算假設與模擬給付間的關係。 以台灣「勞工退休金條例」草案為例進行分析，其實證部分分為兩部分，先前給定平準的預定利率假設，而其他薪資成長率、通貨膨脹率、提撥率、開始工作提撥年齡、退休年齡、退休後各年存活率則根據台灣目前的經濟、就業環境給定；模擬結果發現， 6％合併提撥率無法達到模擬所給定50％-60％的退休後給付所得替代率；若將合併提撥率提高至12％以上，25歲開始工作65歲退休者才能累積足以支應適足所得替代率50％-60％的給付。 第二個模擬部份為給定利率時間序列的情境假設，在此給定簡單的七種利率情境假設，其他精算假設則同樣根據台灣的經濟環境給定之。模擬結果發現，若合併提撥率為9％，基金提撥累積期間40年，給付所得替代率對利率的變動敏感性高，只有在累積期間利率穩定成長的情形下，才能累積足夠的退休金，因此，可以表示9％的合併提撥率在其他非樂觀的利率情境假設下，無法達到50％-60的給付所得替代率。 略 / Due to population aging, the countries that operated their Social Security System on pay-as-you-go financial method have begun to encounter the solvency risk due to the growing financial burden. Since the defined contribution (DC) scheme is considered as a fully funded financial system, it could be one of the solutions to avert the upcoming financial crisis. Hence our study is motivated to investigate the current development of the DC scheme and scrutinize its financial adequacy on providing the retirement benefits to its plan participants. First, the features of current public pension programs in the form of the DC plan are surveyed and their progress is reviewed in Chapter 2. Practical applications applying the DC scheme in private sector are also compared and studied in Chapter 3. Secondly, the actuarial models of the proposed DC scheme are built to investigate the adequacy of the retirement benefits in Chapter 4. Computer codes that can be used to simulate the income-replacement ratios by giving the actuarial assumptions are programmed. Based on this approach, the relationship between income-replacement ratios and the actuarial assumptions (i.e., the interest rate, the salary increase and the inflation rate) can be obtained. In Chapter 5, sensitivity analyses of the benefit adequacy through computer simulations incorporating possible scenarios are performed. The recent proposal of reforming Taiwan Employee Retirement Income Security Act (TERISA) is investigated. An explicit actuarial model closely following this proposal is built to study its impact on the retirement benefits. Finally the empirical results based on this study are summarized. Based on the scenarios under the current economic perspectives, we found the contribution rate at 6% can not attain the income-replacement ratio at 50%. Only over certain optimal interest rates, the retiree can receive the projected income-replacement ratio given the contribution rate at 9%. Based on the proposed draft in reforming the benefit scheme, the retirement benefits are not sufficient to achieve the income-replacement ratio at 50% unless the contribution rates increase to 12%.