The aim of this diploma thesis is to analyze the development of the prices of real estate in the Czech Republic. The thesis is divided into three main parts. The first one deals with the theoretical introduction to valuation of the real estate. Moreover, the thesis presents the current development of the prices of real estate on the Czech market. The last part focuses on co-integration analysis, within which an ADL model is created. This model serves as a base for an error correction model, which describes short-term as well as long-term relations within the time series. The explanatory variables are gross domestic product, consumer price index, the amount of finished apartments, interest rate of mortgage loans, common rate of unemployment, and average gross monthly income. It is the one-equation model which describes the relation among the already mentioned explanatory variables and the HPI index. analysis of the development of the prices of real estate

O tema proficiência tem sido bastante discutido em estudos na área de Linguística Aplicada, em função do `poder que os exames internacionais exercem na sociedade, servindo como instrumento destinado a atestar um `saber legitimado sobre o conhecimento do examinado e, consequentemente, como mecanismo de seleção e exclusão. Esta pesquisa objetiva fornecer subsídios aos professores de línguas, no que tange ao funcionamento e ao formato de exames de proficiência comunicativos/discursivos, como o Certificado de Proficiência em Língua Portuguesa para Estrangeiros (CELPE-BRAS); além de propiciar problematizações acerca da dicotomia existente entre teoria e prática. Para tal, propomo-nos a analisar a proposta comunicativa/discursiva CELPE-BRAS, à luz de alguns conceitos da Análise do Discurso de Língua Francesa (ADF), na interface com conceitos foucaultianos, atentando para o modo como a relação poder-saber incide nas práticas discursivo-pedagógicas, a fim de observarmos como o professor se subjetiva diante dessa proposta comunicativa/discursiva e quais as transformações que incidem em seu fazer docente. Partimos da hipótese de que há um regime de verdade (dos cursos e técnicas) que engendra os exames comunicativos/discursivos e que foge ao alcance dos professores/avaliadores que, possivelmente, ainda adotam uma abordagem tradicional para preparar/avaliar os candidatos sem que, na maioria das vezes, notem tais incoerências/contradições. Para responder aos nossos questionamentos, apresentamos, primeiramente, algumas especificidades e aspectos da nova proposta do referido exame para, posteriormente, contrapô-las aos depoimentos de professores de Português para estrangeiros, atuantes na Colômbia e no Brasil. A análise empreendida nos permitiu vislumbrar, sobretudo através dos mecanismos de denegação e confissão, a heterogeneidade de vozes presentes no intradiscurso dos pesquisados (sujeitos camaleônicos), vozes essas que também ecoam no Manual e na grade de correção do exame e que apontam para resquícios de uma prática tradicional/estruturalista de avaliar, o que não poderia deixar de ser, pois não temos, enquanto sujeitos de linguagem, meios de silenciar nossa memória discursiva que é evocada nas práticas discursivas. Observou-se, também, que o referido exame exerce um poder na preparação e/ou realização das aulas (efeito retroativo) e também na sociedade, servindo para classificar, selecionar e `descartar candidatos. De modo geral, os sujeitos pesquisados reproduzem a proposta do exame analisado, reproduzindo-a em seu dizer-fazer, a fim de que seu saber seja sacramentado e legitimado. Concluímos que, para que o professor se torne, de fato, discursivista, tal como propõe o exame analisado, considerado como ideal na contemporaneidade, é mister que ele consiga adentrar outras discursividades, singularizando a proposta do exame. / Language proficiency has been discussed in a number of Applied Linguistics studies due to the `power international exams have over society as a whole, being used as a tool that demonstrates a legitimate `knowledge on the examinees knowledge and, consequently, as a selection and exclusion method. This research seeks not only to provide support for language teachers on the features and format of communicative/discursive proficiency exams, such as the Certificado de Proficiência em Língua Portuguesa para Estrangeiros (CELPE-BRAS), but also to promote problematization on the dichotomy between theory and practice. To do so, we propose to analyze the CELPE-BRAS communicative/discursive proposal, based on French Discourse Analysis and its interfaces with foucaultian concepts, paying careful attention to the way the knowledge-power relation incurs in the discursive-pedagogical practices. By doing so, we intend to observe how teachers subjectify themselves when facing this communicative/discursive proposal and which changes occur in their teaching. Our hypothesis is that there is a (courses and techniques) truth regimen that engenders the communicative/discursive exams that is out of teachers and evaluators reach that may still follow a traditional/structural approach to prepare/evaluate candidates, many times, without even noticing such incoherence. In order to find answers to these questions, first we present some specificities and aspects of the new proposal of the exam and then confront them with the sayings of Portuguese for foreigners teachers who work in Colombia and in Brazil. The analysis performed let us notice, especially by means of the denegation and confession mechanisms, the heterogeneity of voices present in the subjects intradiscourse (chameleonic subjects). These voices also echo in the manual and correction criteria and point to reminiscences of a traditional/structural evaluation practice, which is expected since, as language subjects, there is no way to silence our discursive memory evoked in discursive practices. It was also observed that the exam has a power over the class preparation and/or delivery (washback retroactive effect) and in society, being used to classify, select, and `discard candidates. On the whole, the subjects stick to the exam proposal, reproducing it in their classes, so as their knowledge is sacred and legitimated. We concluded that for the teacher to become discursivist, as the exam proposes, considered as ideal in the contemporaneity, they must access other discursivities that mobilize their practice, thus singularize the exam proposal.

Chemical sensor based systems that are used for detection, identification, or quantification of various gases are very complex in nature. Sensor response data collected as a multivariate time series signals encounters gradual change of the sensor characteristics(known as sensor drift) due to several reasons. In this thesis, drift component of a silicon carbide Field-Effect Transistor (SiC-FET) sensor data was analyzed using time series. The data was collected from an experiment measuring output response of the sensor with respect to gases emitted by certain experimental object at different temperatures. Augmented Dickey Fuller Test (ADF) was carried out to analyze the sensor drift which revealed that stochastic trend along with deterministic trend characterized the drift components of the sensor. The drift started to rise in daily measurements which contributed to the total drift. / Traditional Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and deep learning based Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm were carried out to forecast the sensor drift in reduced set of data. However, reduction of the data size degraded the forecasting accuracy and imposed loss of information. Therefore, careful selection of data using only one temperature from the temperature cycle was chosen instead of all time points. This chosen data from sensor array outperformed forecasting of sensor drift than reduced dataset using both traditional and deep learning methods.

Partant du constat d’une faible connaissance et d’une utilisation encore limitée des données climatiques en économie du développement, cette thèse propose une exploitation originale à la fois macroéconomique et microéconomique des données climatiques. Elle répond à un double objectif consistant d’une part, à enrichir les connaissances concernant les données climatiques en fournissant une nouvelle base de données mondiale directement exploitable par les économistes, d’autre part, à en proposer des exploitations variées et à différentes échelles de l’économie. La première partie propose une utilisation macroéconomique des données climatiques. Elle doit permettre une meilleure appréhension des données climatiques mondiales, afin d’améliorer des connaissances sur les caractéristiques du changement climatique d’un point de vue économique. Le chapitre 1 produit une base de données climatiques disponible pour près de 200 pays au niveau mensuel pour la période 1900-2008. S’appuyant sur ce premier travail, le chapitre 2 propose une utilisation originale de la base en construisant un indicateur de vulnérabilité physique au changement climatique pouvant servir d’outil pour guider l’allocation de l’aide à l’adaptation au changement climatique. La seconde partie de cette thèse est constituée de deux études microéconomiques dont le but est d’analyser les réactions des agents face à un choc climatique. Dans ces deux chapitres, les données pluviométriques pallient le manque de données concernant la production agricole. Au niveau du ménage agricole d’abord, le chapitre 3 s’intéresse aux conséquences d’un épisode de baisse de la pluviométrie sur l’état nutritionnel des enfants de moins de cinq ans et révèle que les ménages ruraux n’ont pas la capacité d’assurer ou d’absorber ces chocs climatiques. Au niveau d’un marché céréalier ensuite, le chapitre 4 s’attache à étudier la réaction des prix face à un choc pluviométrique et met en évidence la présence d’une spéculation, particulièrement sur des marchés mal intégrés et de petite taille. / Acknowledging a limited knowledge and use of climate data in development economics, this thesis proposes a new perspective on the use of both macroeconomic and microeconomic climate data. This thesis has a two-Fold objective: to deepen knowledge on climate data through the production of a new global database directly exploitable by economists, and to propose several applications of this database at different economic scales. The first part focuses on the macroeconomic aspect of the climate data. Its aim is to empower researchers with a deeper understanding of global climate data and to increase economic knowledge on the characteristics of climate change. Chapter 1 contains a climate database available monthly over the 1900-2008 period for nearly 200 countries. Based on this initial work, Chapter 2 proposes an original use of the database with the construction of a physical indicator of vulnerability to climate change, a tool which can be used as a basis for the allocation of aid for climate change adaptation. The second part of this thesis is composed of two microeconomic studies whose aim is to analyse the behaviour of agents facing a rainfall shock. In those two chapters, rainfall data is used to compensate for the lack of data on agricultural production. At the household level, Chapter 3 focuses on the implications of an episode of reduced rainfall on the nutritional status of children under five years old. It shows that rural households do not have the capacity to provide for or absorb climate shocks. At the grain market level, Chapter 4 studies the response of prices to a shock front rainfall. It reveals the presence of speculation, especially in small and poorly integrated markets.

關於貨幣政策傳導機制的探討,包含了傳統的貨幣觀點以及信用觀點,由於傳統貨幣觀點之貨幣政策傳導機制並無法完全解釋經濟變數之變動,因此信用觀點逐漸受到許多學者的重視與討論。信用觀點所探討的貨幣政策傳導機制稱為信用管道,包含了廣義的信用管道(資產負債表管道)與狹義的信用管道(銀行借貸管道)兩種。在本文中,擬從狹義的信用觀點出發,探討不同金融機構是否存在銀行借貸管道。 在本文對信用管道的研究中,我們有別以往以向量自我迴歸模型(VAR模型)、結構化向量自我迴歸模型(SVAR模型)、或將資料一階差分進行一般最小平方法(OLS法)實證研究分析,我們從資料的原始值出發並探討變數之共整合關係(Cointegration),並利用完全修正最小平方法(FMOLS法)對迴歸式進行係數之估計,探討貨幣政策變動下,不同銀行,包括一般銀行、中小企銀、及基層金融機構(農漁會信用部與信用合作社)之放款對於貨幣政策的反應,探討信用管道是否存在於台灣的事實。

Partant du constat d'une faible connaissance et d'une utilisation encore limitée des données climatiques en économie du développement, cette thèse propose une exploitation originale à la fois macroéconomique et microéconomique des données climatiques. Elle répond à un double objectif consistant d'une part, à enrichir les connaissances concernant les données climatiques en fournissant une nouvelle base de données mondiale directement exploitable par les économistes, d'autre part, à en proposer des exploitations variées et à différentes échelles de l'économie. La première partie propose une utilisation macroéconomique des données climatiques. Elle doit permettre une meilleure appréhension des données climatiques mondiales, afin d'améliorer des connaissances sur les caractéristiques du changement climatique d'un point de vue économique. Le chapitre 1 produit une base de données climatiques disponible pour près de 200 pays au niveau mensuel pour la période 1900-2008. S'appuyant sur ce premier travail, le chapitre 2 propose une utilisation originale de la base en construisant un indicateur de vulnérabilité physique au changement climatique pouvant servir d'outil pour guider l'allocation de l'aide à l'adaptation au changement climatique. La seconde partie de cette thèse est constituée de deux études microéconomiques dont le but est d'analyser les réactions des agents face à un choc climatique. Dans ces deux chapitres, les données pluviométriques pallient le manque de données concernant la production agricole. Au niveau du ménage agricole d'abord, le chapitre 3 s'intéresse aux conséquences d'un épisode de baisse de la pluviométrie sur l'état nutritionnel des enfants de moins de cinq ans et révèle que les ménages ruraux n'ont pas la capacité d'assurer ou d'absorber ces chocs climatiques. Au niveau d'un marché céréalier ensuite, le chapitre 4 s'attache à étudier la réaction des prix face à un choc pluviométrique et met en évidence la présence d'une spéculation, particulièrement sur des marchés mal intégrés et de petite taille.

Submitted by Caroline Xavier (caroline.xavier@pucrs.br) on 2017-10-24T11:35:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DIS_CARLOS_DAVID_GODWARD_COMPLETO.pdf: 1317478 bytes, checksum: b5114678f308871a52be8844a408fe66 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Caroline Xavier (caroline.xavier@pucrs.br) on 2017-10-24T11:35:49Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DIS_CARLOS_DAVID_GODWARD_COMPLETO.pdf: 1317478 bytes, checksum: b5114678f308871a52be8844a408fe66 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-10-24T11:36:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DIS_CARLOS_DAVID_GODWARD_COMPLETO.pdf: 1317478 bytes, checksum: b5114678f308871a52be8844a408fe66 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-08-11 / Conditional Income Transfer Programs, Bolsa Fam?lia Program in Brazil, became an innovative instrument for reducing social inequality in many countries, specifically, in Latin America, where they were widely adopted. These programs have proven effective in several aspects such as reducing poverty and inequality, improving schooling rates, etc. An aspect that has remained unmentioned of these programs was their potential to encourage targeted workers of the program to migrate to the informal labour market in order to remain "invisible" to program managers and, thus, receive the benefits even when they do not qualify according to program standards. This study applies VECM (Vector Error Corrector Model) to show this issue may be occurring in the six Brazilian state capitals, included in the IBGE Monthly Employment Survey, from the creation of the program, in 2004, until March 2016. / Os Programas de Transfer?ncia de Renda Condicionada, Programa Bolsa Fam?lia no Brasil, foram uma forma inovadora de reduzir a desigualdade social em muitos pa?ses, principalmente da Am?rica Latina. Estes programas se mostraram eficientes em v?rios aspectos, como reduzir a pobreza, a desigualdade, melhorar ?ndices de escolaridade, etc. Mas, um aspecto pouco mencionado destes programas, ? o potencial de incentivar os trabalhadores - alvo do programa - a migrar para o mercado laboral informal, com o objetivo de ficarem ?invis?veis? aos gestores do programa e, assim, receberem os benef?cios, ainda que n?o se qualifiquem a eles, pelos n?veis de renda definidos pelo programa. Este trabalho utiliza o VECM (modelo Vector Corretor de Erros) para mostrar que este fato pode estar ocorrendo nas seis capitais do Brasil, que conformaram a Pesquisa Mensal de Emprego do IBGE, desde a cria??o do programa at? mar?o de 2016.

<p>Denna rapport syftar till att, på Å&R Carton i Norrköping, analysera de interna flödena och processerna samt ge förslag på hur ledtider ska kunna reduceras väsentligt. Ett sätt att uppfylla syftet är att dela in verksamheten i processer genom olika metoder och kriterier förprocessbestämning. Valda metoder i rapporten är; kvalitativ ansats med hög validitet och reliabilitet, processbaserad verksamhetsanalys och procedurbeskrivning. </p><p>Genom omfattande litteraturstudier, insamlande av data i form av intervjuer, benchmarking, platsundersökningar och interna dokument har nulägesmodeller arbetats fram. Analysen av dessa visar bland annat på att såväl planeringsprocessen som inköpsprocessen idag inte fungerar värdeadderande och bör ses över. Därutöver finns också andra processer som bidrar till ett komplext flöde. Dessa behöver effektiviseras eller ändras för att korta ledtider. Vidare visar analysen på att en omfattande attitydsundersökning behövs, dels för att komma till rätta med vissa stämningar och dels för att på sikt skapa en effektiv arbetsmiljö. </p><p>Till förbättringsförslagen hör, förutom en attitydsundersökning, förslaget att utarbeta tydliga mål och strategier. Sedan måste dessa kommuniceras till samtliga anställda, till exempel genom arbetsgrupper. Vidare föreslås att Å&R Carton tittar på automatisk datafångst som ett mycket kostnadseffektivt sätt att kontrollera det totala flödet. På lång sikt bör också företaget titta på att implementera processorientering. Dock behöver företaget först och främst se till att skapa en förändringsvillig attityd för att nå framgång i sitt effektiviseringsarbete. Slutsatsen blir att Å&R Carton har stor potential att väsentligt förkorta sina ledtider om företaget hanterar situationen rätt. För att lyckas kan delar av denna rapport användas där det viktigaste är att en engagerad ledning visar vägen. </p> / <p>The purpose of this final thesis is to analyse the internal processes at Å&R Carton in Norrköping and give proposals to reduce time in the Supply Chain. One way to fulfill the purpose is to use Process Based Analys and split the organisation in different processes. Process Based Models have then been constructed by studying litterature, benchmarking, internal documents and making a lot of interviews. The analys shows that different processes must be changed to make the flow through the Supply Chain more efficient. The analys give us also recommendations like attitude investigations and implementation of ECR. The conclusion is that Å&R Carton have great potential to reduce time in the Supply Chain if the management are active, follow the recommendations and show the employees the way about.</p>

Denna rapport syftar till att, på Å&amp;R Carton i Norrköping, analysera de interna flödena och processerna samt ge förslag på hur ledtider ska kunna reduceras väsentligt. Ett sätt att uppfylla syftet är att dela in verksamheten i processer genom olika metoder och kriterier förprocessbestämning. Valda metoder i rapporten är; kvalitativ ansats med hög validitet och reliabilitet, processbaserad verksamhetsanalys och procedurbeskrivning. Genom omfattande litteraturstudier, insamlande av data i form av intervjuer, benchmarking, platsundersökningar och interna dokument har nulägesmodeller arbetats fram. Analysen av dessa visar bland annat på att såväl planeringsprocessen som inköpsprocessen idag inte fungerar värdeadderande och bör ses över. Därutöver finns också andra processer som bidrar till ett komplext flöde. Dessa behöver effektiviseras eller ändras för att korta ledtider. Vidare visar analysen på att en omfattande attitydsundersökning behövs, dels för att komma till rätta med vissa stämningar och dels för att på sikt skapa en effektiv arbetsmiljö. Till förbättringsförslagen hör, förutom en attitydsundersökning, förslaget att utarbeta tydliga mål och strategier. Sedan måste dessa kommuniceras till samtliga anställda, till exempel genom arbetsgrupper. Vidare föreslås att Å&amp;R Carton tittar på automatisk datafångst som ett mycket kostnadseffektivt sätt att kontrollera det totala flödet. På lång sikt bör också företaget titta på att implementera processorientering. Dock behöver företaget först och främst se till att skapa en förändringsvillig attityd för att nå framgång i sitt effektiviseringsarbete. Slutsatsen blir att Å&amp;R Carton har stor potential att väsentligt förkorta sina ledtider om företaget hanterar situationen rätt. För att lyckas kan delar av denna rapport användas där det viktigaste är att en engagerad ledning visar vägen. / The purpose of this final thesis is to analyse the internal processes at Å&amp;R Carton in Norrköping and give proposals to reduce time in the Supply Chain. One way to fulfill the purpose is to use Process Based Analys and split the organisation in different processes. Process Based Models have then been constructed by studying litterature, benchmarking, internal documents and making a lot of interviews. The analys shows that different processes must be changed to make the flow through the Supply Chain more efficient. The analys give us also recommendations like attitude investigations and implementation of ECR. The conclusion is that Å&amp;R Carton have great potential to reduce time in the Supply Chain if the management are active, follow the recommendations and show the employees the way about.

In this thesis, we study the unit root tests which includes the ADF, PP and KPSS tests, the long memory tests such as the R/S and GPH tests, and the applications of these methods in high frequency financial data analysis. The software SPLUS was adopted to analyze data and correction of the SPLUS program in unit tests are also proposed. To apply these two test methods in high frequency data, we quoted the library, HFlibrary designed by Yan and Zivot in 2003 for preliminary data analysis and propose a new library HFanalysis, which can be used in correcting high frequency data (excluding N.A. value, sorting transactions and retrieve a certain time of transactions), obtaining equi-distanced time intervals and testing for unit root and long memory properties. In additions, we apply this proposed library to simulate the power of traditional unit root methods such as the ADF test and long memory test method such as the R/S and to perform an empirical study. Finally, we explore the power of the ADF for testing data simulated from a threshold unit root model and simulate the percentiles of the null distribution of the following threshold unit root tests: WALD, LM, LR and W£f.