In a large population-based study among adults in northern Europe the relation between occupational exposure and new-onset asthma was studied. The study comprised 13 284 subjects born between 1945 and 1973, who answered a questionnaire 19891992 and again 19992001. Asthma was defined as Asthma diagnosed by a physician with reported year of diagnose. Hazard ratios (HR), for new-onset adult asthma during 19802000, were calculated using a modified job-exposure matrix as well as high-risk occupations in Cox regression models. The analyses were made separately for men and women and were also stratified for atopy. During the observation period there were 429 subjects with new-onset asthma with an asthma incidence of 1.3 cases per 1000 person-years for men and 2.4 for women. A significant increase in new-onset asthma was seen for men exposed to plant-associated antigens (HR 3.6; 95% CI [confidence interval] 1.49.0), epoxy (HR 2.4; 95% CI 1.34.5), diisocyanates (HR 2.1; 95% CI 1.23.7) and accidental peak exposures to irritants (HR 2.4; 95% CI 1.34.7). Both men and women exposed to cleaning agents had an increased asthma risk. When stratifying for atopy an increased asthma risk were seen in non-atopic men exposed to acrylates (HR 3.3; 95% CI 1.47.5), epoxy compounds (HR 3.6; 95% CI 1.67.9), diisocyanates and accidental peak exposures to irritants (HR 3.0; 95% CI 1.27.2). Population attributable risk for occupational asthma was 14% for men and 7% for women. This population-based study showed that men exposed to epoxy, diisocyanates and acrylates had an increased risk of new-onset asthma. Non-atopics seemed to be at higher risk than atopics, except for exposure to high molecular weight agents. Increased asthma risks among cleaners, spray painters, plumbers, and hairdressers were confirmed.

Il est bien établi que l'exposition à court terme aux particules fines dans l’air ambiant en milieu urbain a des effets sur la santé. Toutefois, peu d'études épidémiologiques ont évalué la relation entre les particules fines (PM2.5) de sources spécifiques comme celles dérivées de feux de forêt et les effets sur la santé. Pour l’instant, les risques de mortalité et de morbidité associés aux PM2.5 résultant de la combustion de végétation semblent similaires à ceux des PM2.5 urbaines. Dans le présent mémoire, nous avons comparé deux méthodes pour quantifier les risques de mortalité et de morbidité associés à l'augmentation des niveaux de PM2.5 à Montréal, dérivées de deux épisodes des feux de forêts majeurs dans le Nord du Québec. La première approche consistait à comparer les décès et les visites aux urgences observées enregistrées au cours des deux épisodes à Montréal à leurs moyennes respectives attendues durant des jours de référence. Nous avons également calculé la surmortalité et la surmorbidité prédites attribuables aux PM2.5 lors des épisodes, en projetant les risques relatifs (RR) rapportés par l’Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) des États-Unis pour les PM2.5 urbaines, ainsi qu’en appliquant des fonctions de risque estimées à partir des données estivales spécifiques à Montréal. Suivant la première approche, nous avons estimé une surmortalité de +10% pendant les deux épisodes. Cependant, aucune tendance claire n'a été observée pour les visites à l'urgence. Et suivant la 2e approche, la surmortalité prédite attribuable aux niveaux des PM2.5 dérivées des feux de forêt étaient moins élevés que ceux observés, soit de 1 à 4 cas seulement. Une faible surmortalité attribuable aux niveaux élevés des PM2.5 issues de feux de la forêt boréale du Québec a été estimée par les fonctions de risque ainsi que par la méthode de comparaison des décès observés aux moyennes attendues, sur l’Île de Montréal, située à des centaines de km des sites de feux. / The association between adverse health effects and short term exposure to urban particulate matter in ambient air is well established. Few epidemiological studies have assessed the relation between fine particles (PM2.5) of specific sources like forest fires, and health effects. According to the published literature to date, risks of mortality and morbidity associated with PM2.5 from combustion sources appear similar to those of urban PM2.5. In the present thesis, we compared two methods to quantify mortality and morbidity risks associated with the increase in PM2.5 levels in Montreal, due to two major forest fire episodes in Northern Quebec. In the first approach we compared mortality and emergency room visits counts recorded during the episodes to their respective averages expected on “usual” days. We also calculated deaths and emergency room visits attributable to PM2.5 levels on episode days, using the range of relative risks (RRs) reported by the United-States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for urban PM2.5 levels, as well as specific risk functions developed with Montreal summer data. With the first method, increases of deaths of more than 10% were observed for both episodes. However no clear tendency was observed in emergency room visits. Estimated attributable deaths associated with the increase in PM2.5 levels were smaller than those observed and ranged between 1 to 4 cases. PM2.5 from Quebec boreal forest fires were associated with small increases in mortality estimated either with the risk function method or by contrasting observed deaths on “episode” days to“usual” days, on the Island of Montreal, hundreds of kilometers away from the fire sites.

Contexto: O Acinetobacter spp. é um cocobacilo gram-negativo, considerado patógeno oportunista e de grande importância nas infecções hospitalares. Estão envolvidos em amplo espectro de infecções nosocomiais, incluindo bacteremia, meningite secundária e infecção do trato urinário, mas sua maior prevalência é como agente de pneumonia associada à ventilação mecânica em pacientes internados em unidades de terapia intensiva (UTIs); podendo ocasionar um agravamento do quadro clínico e o óbito desses pacientes. Considera-se como um patógeno de baixa virulência, podendo permanecer sobre a pele ou dentro do corpo humano sem causar doença. A disseminação pelas mãos dos profissionais de saúde geralmente não é detectada e quando as infecções pelo Acinetobacter tornam-se aparentes o número de pacientes colonizados é, provavelmente, muito elevado. Assim sendo, as precauções para prevenir um surto tornam-se tardias. Estudos prévios indicaram como fatores de risco para aquisição de infecção por Acinetobacter a gravidade da doença dos pacientes, uso prévio de antimicrobiano, número de dias com procedimento invasivo, tempo de permanência no hospital, contaminação ambiental. Os fatores de risco associados à mortalidade de pacientes com A. baumannii ainda não foram totalmente elucidados pela literatura, mas a idade, colonização prévia por esta bactéria, neutropenia, escore de gravidade APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) elevado, procedimentos como ventilação mecânica, terapia antimicrobiana inapropriada são apontados como alguns dos fatores relacionados. Objetivos: Caracterizar a mortalidade atribuível a infecções causadas por Acinetobacter baumannii resistente à carbapenêmicos (CRAB) em um surto no 13 Centro de Terapia Intensiva adulto de um hospital universitário. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo de coorte retrospectivo pareado como parte da investigação do surto de pacientes no Centro de Tratamento Intensivo (CTI) Adulto infectados com a bactéria Acinetobacter baumannii apresentando resistência à carbapenêmicos. Os pacientes foram selecionados entre 01/01/2007 a 31/07/2008 e foram considerados como casos os pacientes com cultura positiva para CRAB. Os controles foram pacientes internados no CTI no mesmo período que os casos, mas que não apresentaram infecção na qual foi isolada a presença da bactéria em questão. Os fatores avaliados como possível associação com o risco de mortalidade foram avaliados. Determinou-se a mortalidade atribuível a infecções causadas por CRAB e através da curva de sobrevivência avaliou-se essa distribuição entre casos e controles. Resultados: Foram selecionados 90 pacientes como casos e 179 pacientes pareados como controles. A média de idade, as proporções de pacientes com Escore de Chalson ³ 2, de pacientes internados não eletivamente, as reinternações e a freqüência de realização de cirurgias foram muito semelhantes entre os grupos estudados. Entre os casos, houve maior proporção de pacientes transferidos de outro hospital (P<0,001), internados em área contígua à presença de casos de colonização ou infecção por CRAB (P<0,001), de pacientes submetidos a alimentação parenteral (P<0,001); ventilação mecânica (P<0,001), cateteres urinários (P=0,031), cateteres para acesso vascular central (P=0,006) e cateteres para hemodiálise (P<0,001) comparativamente aos controles. Da mesma maneira, casos apresentaram maior freqüência de exposição prévia a antimicrobianos, comparativamente aos controles: penicilinas (P<0,001), cefalosporinas de 1ª e/ou 2ª gerações (P<0,001), carbapenêmicos (P<0,001), aminoglicosídeos (P=0,046), quinolonas (P=0,004) e 14 glicopeptídeos (P=0,001). Os casos apresentaram tempo médio de internação superior aos controles, incluindo duração total da internação (P=0,002), permanência na CTI (P<0,001) e permanência na CTI antes da infecção por CRAB (P=0,03). O escore de APACHE II por ocasião da admissão no CTI também teve média significativamente maior entre os casos comparativamente aos controles (P<0,001). Houve diferença na taxa de mortalidade bruta intra-hospitalar entre casos e controles, respectivamente, 58,9% (53/90) e 36,9% (66/179) (P=0,001). A mortalidade atribuível foi 22% (IC 95%; 8,8%-35,2%) e as curvas de sobrevivência cumulativa para casos e controles não apresentaram diferença significativa entre os grupos (P=0,207; log rank test) A análise multivariável indica que pacientes com escore de APACHE II maiores e que mais freqüentemente foram submetidos a procedimentos invasivos como ventilação mecânica, suporte nutricional (dieta parenteral) e que permaneceram um período maior no hospital estiveram mais propensos a risco de mortalidade associada à infecção por CRAB. Conclusões: Nesse estudo os fatores associados com a mortalidade e a taxa de mortalidade atribuível identificados vão ao encontro da literatura e indica que pacientes mais graves estão mais propensos a risco de morte associada à infecção por CRAB. A literatura enfatiza também a necessidade de consistentes estratégias de controle de infecção para prevenir infecções por Acinetobacter multirresistente. A investigação da mortalidade atribuível ao A. baumannii apresenta muitas limitações e ainda não é conclusiva. / Context: Acinetobacter spp. is a bacilli gram-negative considered an opportunistic pathogen and of great importance in nosocomial infections. They are involved in a wide spectrum of nosocomial infections, including bacteremia, secondary meningitis and urinary tract infection, but is prevalent as an agent of mechanical ventilatorassociated pneumonia in patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs); this factor can lead to an increase morbidity and mortality of these patients. It is considered as a pathogen of low virulence and may remain on or within the human body without causing disease. The spread by the hands of clinical staff is often not detected and when Acinetobacter infections become apparent, the number of colonized patients is probably very high, therefore, precautions to prevent an outbreak are late. Previous studies have observed as risk factors for acquisition of Acinetobacter infection by the disease severity of patients, prior use of antimicrobials, number of days with invasive procedures, length of stay in hospital environmental contamination. Risk factors associated with mortality of patients with A. baumannii have not been fully elucidated in the literature, but showed that age, previous colonization by this bacterium, neutropenia, high severity score APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation), procedures such as mechanical ventilation, inappropriate antimicrobial therapy as some of the factors related to mortality. Objectives: To characterize attributable mortality to infections caused by Acinetobacter baumannii resistant to carbapenem (CRAB) in an outbreak in the adult intensive care unit of a university hospital. 16 Methods: We performed a matched retrospective cohort as part of outbreak investigation of patients in the ICU adult infected with the bacteria Acinetobacter baumannii exhibiting resistance to carbapenems. Patients were selected from 01/01/2007 to 31/07/2008 and the cases were considered patients with positive culture for CRAB. Controls were patients admitted to the ICU during the same period as cases, but showed no infection in which was isolated the presence of the bacterium in question. Factors evaluated as possible association with the risk of mortality were evaluated. Determined the attributable mortality to infections caused by CRAB and through the survival curve was evaluated this distribution between cases and controls. Results: 90 patients were selected as cases and 179 patients matched as controls. The average age, the proportions of patients with a Chalson score ³ 2 from inpatients not elective, the frequency of hospitalizations and surgeries were similar among studied groups. Among the cases, a greater proportion of patients transferred from another hospital (P <0.001), admitted in an area contiguous to the presence of cases of colonization or infection by CRAB (P <0.001) in patients undergoing parenteral nutrition (P <0.001) ; mechanical ventilation (P <0.001), urinary catheters (P = 0.031), central catheters for vascular access (P = 0.006) and catheters for hemodialysis (P <0.001) compared to controls. Likewise, cases had higher frequency of prior exposure to antimicrobials, compared with controls: penicillin (P <0.001), cephalosporins of 1st and / or 2nd generation (P <0.001), carbapenems (P <0.001), aminoglycosides (P = 0.046), quinolones (P = 0.004) and glycopeptides (P = 0.001). The cases presented mean length of stay higher than controls, including total duration of hospitalization (P = 0.002), stay in ICU (P <0.001) and stay in the ICU before 17 infection by CRAB (P = 0.03). The APACHE II score on admission to the ICU was also significantly higher average among cases compared with controls (P <0.001). There was a difference in the rate of in-hospital crude mortality among cases and controls, respectively, 58,9% (53/90) e 36,9% (66/179) (P = 0.001). The attributable mortality was 22% (95% CI 8.8% -35.2%) and cumulative survival curves for cases and controls showed no significant difference between groups (P = 0.207, log rank test) Multivariate analysis indicates that patients with APACHE II score higher and more frequently underwent invasive procedures such as mechanical ventilation, nutritional support (parenteral nutrition) and remained a longer period in hospital were more likely to risk of mortality associated with infection by CRAB. Conclusions: In this study the factors associated with mortality and the attributable mortality rate identified are in line with the literature and indicates that more severe patients are more prone to risk of mortality associated with infection by CRAB. The literature also emphasizes the need for consistent infection control strategies to prevent infection by multidrug resistant Acinetobacter. The investigation of attributable mortality to A. baumannii has many limitations and is not conclusive yet.

Contexto: O Acinetobacter spp. é um cocobacilo gram-negativo, considerado patógeno oportunista e de grande importância nas infecções hospitalares. Estão envolvidos em amplo espectro de infecções nosocomiais, incluindo bacteremia, meningite secundária e infecção do trato urinário, mas sua maior prevalência é como agente de pneumonia associada à ventilação mecânica em pacientes internados em unidades de terapia intensiva (UTIs); podendo ocasionar um agravamento do quadro clínico e o óbito desses pacientes. Considera-se como um patógeno de baixa virulência, podendo permanecer sobre a pele ou dentro do corpo humano sem causar doença. A disseminação pelas mãos dos profissionais de saúde geralmente não é detectada e quando as infecções pelo Acinetobacter tornam-se aparentes o número de pacientes colonizados é, provavelmente, muito elevado. Assim sendo, as precauções para prevenir um surto tornam-se tardias. Estudos prévios indicaram como fatores de risco para aquisição de infecção por Acinetobacter a gravidade da doença dos pacientes, uso prévio de antimicrobiano, número de dias com procedimento invasivo, tempo de permanência no hospital, contaminação ambiental. Os fatores de risco associados à mortalidade de pacientes com A. baumannii ainda não foram totalmente elucidados pela literatura, mas a idade, colonização prévia por esta bactéria, neutropenia, escore de gravidade APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) elevado, procedimentos como ventilação mecânica, terapia antimicrobiana inapropriada são apontados como alguns dos fatores relacionados. Objetivos: Caracterizar a mortalidade atribuível a infecções causadas por Acinetobacter baumannii resistente à carbapenêmicos (CRAB) em um surto no 13 Centro de Terapia Intensiva adulto de um hospital universitário. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo de coorte retrospectivo pareado como parte da investigação do surto de pacientes no Centro de Tratamento Intensivo (CTI) Adulto infectados com a bactéria Acinetobacter baumannii apresentando resistência à carbapenêmicos. Os pacientes foram selecionados entre 01/01/2007 a 31/07/2008 e foram considerados como casos os pacientes com cultura positiva para CRAB. Os controles foram pacientes internados no CTI no mesmo período que os casos, mas que não apresentaram infecção na qual foi isolada a presença da bactéria em questão. Os fatores avaliados como possível associação com o risco de mortalidade foram avaliados. Determinou-se a mortalidade atribuível a infecções causadas por CRAB e através da curva de sobrevivência avaliou-se essa distribuição entre casos e controles. Resultados: Foram selecionados 90 pacientes como casos e 179 pacientes pareados como controles. A média de idade, as proporções de pacientes com Escore de Chalson ³ 2, de pacientes internados não eletivamente, as reinternações e a freqüência de realização de cirurgias foram muito semelhantes entre os grupos estudados. Entre os casos, houve maior proporção de pacientes transferidos de outro hospital (P<0,001), internados em área contígua à presença de casos de colonização ou infecção por CRAB (P<0,001), de pacientes submetidos a alimentação parenteral (P<0,001); ventilação mecânica (P<0,001), cateteres urinários (P=0,031), cateteres para acesso vascular central (P=0,006) e cateteres para hemodiálise (P<0,001) comparativamente aos controles. Da mesma maneira, casos apresentaram maior freqüência de exposição prévia a antimicrobianos, comparativamente aos controles: penicilinas (P<0,001), cefalosporinas de 1ª e/ou 2ª gerações (P<0,001), carbapenêmicos (P<0,001), aminoglicosídeos (P=0,046), quinolonas (P=0,004) e 14 glicopeptídeos (P=0,001). Os casos apresentaram tempo médio de internação superior aos controles, incluindo duração total da internação (P=0,002), permanência na CTI (P<0,001) e permanência na CTI antes da infecção por CRAB (P=0,03). O escore de APACHE II por ocasião da admissão no CTI também teve média significativamente maior entre os casos comparativamente aos controles (P<0,001). Houve diferença na taxa de mortalidade bruta intra-hospitalar entre casos e controles, respectivamente, 58,9% (53/90) e 36,9% (66/179) (P=0,001). A mortalidade atribuível foi 22% (IC 95%; 8,8%-35,2%) e as curvas de sobrevivência cumulativa para casos e controles não apresentaram diferença significativa entre os grupos (P=0,207; log rank test) A análise multivariável indica que pacientes com escore de APACHE II maiores e que mais freqüentemente foram submetidos a procedimentos invasivos como ventilação mecânica, suporte nutricional (dieta parenteral) e que permaneceram um período maior no hospital estiveram mais propensos a risco de mortalidade associada à infecção por CRAB. Conclusões: Nesse estudo os fatores associados com a mortalidade e a taxa de mortalidade atribuível identificados vão ao encontro da literatura e indica que pacientes mais graves estão mais propensos a risco de morte associada à infecção por CRAB. A literatura enfatiza também a necessidade de consistentes estratégias de controle de infecção para prevenir infecções por Acinetobacter multirresistente. A investigação da mortalidade atribuível ao A. baumannii apresenta muitas limitações e ainda não é conclusiva. / Context: Acinetobacter spp. is a bacilli gram-negative considered an opportunistic pathogen and of great importance in nosocomial infections. They are involved in a wide spectrum of nosocomial infections, including bacteremia, secondary meningitis and urinary tract infection, but is prevalent as an agent of mechanical ventilatorassociated pneumonia in patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs); this factor can lead to an increase morbidity and mortality of these patients. It is considered as a pathogen of low virulence and may remain on or within the human body without causing disease. The spread by the hands of clinical staff is often not detected and when Acinetobacter infections become apparent, the number of colonized patients is probably very high, therefore, precautions to prevent an outbreak are late. Previous studies have observed as risk factors for acquisition of Acinetobacter infection by the disease severity of patients, prior use of antimicrobials, number of days with invasive procedures, length of stay in hospital environmental contamination. Risk factors associated with mortality of patients with A. baumannii have not been fully elucidated in the literature, but showed that age, previous colonization by this bacterium, neutropenia, high severity score APACHE II (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation), procedures such as mechanical ventilation, inappropriate antimicrobial therapy as some of the factors related to mortality. Objectives: To characterize attributable mortality to infections caused by Acinetobacter baumannii resistant to carbapenem (CRAB) in an outbreak in the adult intensive care unit of a university hospital. 16 Methods: We performed a matched retrospective cohort as part of outbreak investigation of patients in the ICU adult infected with the bacteria Acinetobacter baumannii exhibiting resistance to carbapenems. Patients were selected from 01/01/2007 to 31/07/2008 and the cases were considered patients with positive culture for CRAB. Controls were patients admitted to the ICU during the same period as cases, but showed no infection in which was isolated the presence of the bacterium in question. Factors evaluated as possible association with the risk of mortality were evaluated. Determined the attributable mortality to infections caused by CRAB and through the survival curve was evaluated this distribution between cases and controls. Results: 90 patients were selected as cases and 179 patients matched as controls. The average age, the proportions of patients with a Chalson score ³ 2 from inpatients not elective, the frequency of hospitalizations and surgeries were similar among studied groups. Among the cases, a greater proportion of patients transferred from another hospital (P <0.001), admitted in an area contiguous to the presence of cases of colonization or infection by CRAB (P <0.001) in patients undergoing parenteral nutrition (P <0.001) ; mechanical ventilation (P <0.001), urinary catheters (P = 0.031), central catheters for vascular access (P = 0.006) and catheters for hemodialysis (P <0.001) compared to controls. Likewise, cases had higher frequency of prior exposure to antimicrobials, compared with controls: penicillin (P <0.001), cephalosporins of 1st and / or 2nd generation (P <0.001), carbapenems (P <0.001), aminoglycosides (P = 0.046), quinolones (P = 0.004) and glycopeptides (P = 0.001). The cases presented mean length of stay higher than controls, including total duration of hospitalization (P = 0.002), stay in ICU (P <0.001) and stay in the ICU before 17 infection by CRAB (P = 0.03). The APACHE II score on admission to the ICU was also significantly higher average among cases compared with controls (P <0.001). There was a difference in the rate of in-hospital crude mortality among cases and controls, respectively, 58,9% (53/90) e 36,9% (66/179) (P = 0.001). The attributable mortality was 22% (95% CI 8.8% -35.2%) and cumulative survival curves for cases and controls showed no significant difference between groups (P = 0.207, log rank test) Multivariate analysis indicates that patients with APACHE II score higher and more frequently underwent invasive procedures such as mechanical ventilation, nutritional support (parenteral nutrition) and remained a longer period in hospital were more likely to risk of mortality associated with infection by CRAB. Conclusions: In this study the factors associated with mortality and the attributable mortality rate identified are in line with the literature and indicates that more severe patients are more prone to risk of mortality associated with infection by CRAB. The literature also emphasizes the need for consistent infection control strategies to prevent infection by multidrug resistant Acinetobacter. The investigation of attributable mortality to A. baumannii has many limitations and is not conclusive yet.

L’objectif principal de cette thèse est d’évaluer le coût social des cancers des voies respiratoires d’origine professionnelle en France. Une synthèse des données épidémiologiques disponibles dans la littérature est réalisée. La méthode des risques attribuables est mobilisée pour estimer les nombres de cas (incidents, prévalents et de décès) de cancers du poumon, des naso-sinus et des mésothéliomes de la plèvre imputables à l’amiante, aux fumées d’échappement des moteurs diesel, aux peintres, à la silice cristalline, aux poussières de bois et aux poussières de cuir. Nous évaluons ensuite le coût que représentent ces cas de cancer pour la société selon la méthode du coût de la maladie. Pour prendre en compte de manière exhaustive les coûts indirects nous développons un arbre de décision permettant d’estimer la probabilité d’être concerné par chaque catégorie de coût. Nous mettons en place des modèles d’évaluations spécifiques des cancers pour chaque catégorie de coût qui nous permettent d’estimer, selon les approches par l’incidence et par la prévalence, les coûts directs (hospitaliers et soins de ville), indirects de morbidité (absentéisme et présentéisme) et de mortalité dans les sphères marchande et non marchande. Pour l’année 2010, le coût social des cancers du poumon, des naso-sinus et des mésothéliomes de la plèvre imputables à l’amiante, aux fumées d’échappement des moteurs diesel, aux peintres, à la silice cristalline, aux poussières de bois et aux poussières de cuir est estimé en France entre 986 et 1 248 millions d’euros selon l’approche par la prévalence et entre 1 223 et 1 586 millions d’euros selon l’approche par l’incidence dont 760 à 806 millions d’euros uniquement pour l’amiante. / The main objective of this thesis is to evaluate the social cost of respiratory cancer attributable to occupational risk factors in France. A summary of the available epidemiological data in the literature is performed. By using the Medline database, a review of the literature restricted to meta-analysis highlights the relative risk data available. The method of Attributable Risks (AR) is mobilized to estimate the numbers of lung, sinonasal and mesothelioma cancer cases caused by asbestos, exhaust fumes from diesel engines, painters, crystalline silica, wood dust and leather dust. We then assess the costs of these cancer cases for the french society using the Cost Of Illness (COI) method. To take into account all indirect costs we develop a decision tree to estimate the probability of being involved in each cost category. We set up cancer-specific assessment models for each category of costs that allow us to estimate, according to incidence-based and prevalence-based approaches, direct costs (hospital and ambulatory care), indirect costs of morbidity (absenteeism and presenteeism) and mortality in the market and nonmarket spheres. For 2010, the social cost of lung, sinonasal and mesothelioma cancer cases caused by asbestos, exhaust fumes from diesel engines, painters, crystalline silica, dust wood and leather dust in France is estimated between 986 and 1 248 million euros according to prevalence-based approach and between 1 223 and 1 586 million euros according to incidence-based approach among which 760 to 806 million euros only for asbestos.

Le terme analyse de survie fait référence aux méthodes utilisées pour modéliser le temps d'apparition d'un ou plusieurs événements en tenant compte de la censure. L'événement d’intérêt peut être l'apparition, la récidive d'une maladie, ou le décès. Les causes de décès peuvent présenter des valeurs absentes, une situation qui peut être modélisée par des méthodes d’imputation. Dans la première partie de cette thèse nous avons passer en revue les méthodes de gestion des données manquantes. Puis nous avons détaillé les procédures qui permettent une imputation multiple des causes de décès. Nous avons développé ces méthodes dans une cohorte issue d’une étude européenne, l’ERSPC (European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer), qui étudiait le dépistage et la mortalité par cancer de la prostate. Nous avons proposé une formulation théorique des règles de Rubin après transformation log-log complémentaire afin de combiner les estimations de survie. De plus, nous mettons à disposition le code R afférent. Dans la deuxième partie, nous présentons les méthodes d'analyse de survie, en proposant une écriture unifiée basée sur les définitions des survies brute et nette, que l’on s'intéresse à toutes les causes de décès ou à une seule cause. Cela implique la prise en compte de la censure qui peut alors être informative. Nous avons considéré les méthodes dites classiques (Kaplan-Meier, Nelson-Aalen, Cox et paramétriques), les méthodes des risques compétitifs (en considérant un modèle multi-états ou un modèle de temps latents), les méthodes dites spécifiques avec correction IPCW (Inverse Ponderation Censoring Weighting) et les méthodes de survie relative. Les méthodes dites classiques reposent sur l'hypothèse de censure non informative. Quand on s'intéresse aux décès de toutes causes, cette hypothèse est souvent valide. En revanche, pour un décès de cause particulière, les décès d'autres causes sont considérés comme une censure, et cette censure par décès d'autres causes est en général informative. Nous introduisons une approche basée sur la méthode IPCW afin de corriger cette censure informative, et nous fournissons une fonction R qui permet d’appliquer cette approche directement. Toutes les méthodes présentées dans ce chapitre sont appliquées aux bases de données complétées par imputation multiple.Enfin, dans une dernière partie nous avons cherché à déterminer le pourcentage de décès expliqué par une ou plusieurs variables en utilisant les fractions attribuables. Nous présentons les formulations théoriques des fractions attribuables, indépendantes du temps puis dépendantes du temps qui s’expriment sous la forme de survie. Nous illustrons ces concepts en utilisant toutes les méthodes de survie de la partie précédente et comparons les résultats. Les estimations obtenues avec les différentes méthodes sont très proches. / The term survival analysis refers to methods used for modeling the time of occurrence of one or more events taking censoring into account. The event of interest may be either the onset or the recurrence of a disease, or death. The causes of death may have missing values, a status that may be modeled by imputation methods.
In the first section of this thesis we made a review of the methods used to deal with these missing data. Then, we detailed the procedures that enable multiple imputation of causes of death. We have developed these methods in a subset of the ERSPC (European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer), which studied screening and mortality for prostate cancer. We proposed a theoretical formulation of Rubin rules after a complementary log-log transformation to combine estimates of survival. In addition, we provided the related R code.
In a second section, we presented the survival analysis methods, by proposing a unified writing based on the definitions of crude and net survival, while considering either all-cause or specific cause of death. This involves consideration of censoring which can then be informative. We considered the so-called traditional methods (Kaplan-Meier, Nelson-Aalen, Cox and parametric) methods of competing risks (considering a multistate model or a latent failure time model), methods called specific that are corrected using IPCW (Inverse Ponderation Censoring Weighting) and relative survival methods. The classical methods are based on a non-informative censoring assumption. When we are interested in deaths from all causes, this assumption is often valid. However, for a particular cause of death, other causes of death are considered as a censoring. In this case, censoring by other causes of death is generally considered informative. We introduced an approach based on the IPCW method to correct this informative censoring, and we provided an R function to apply this approach directly. All methods presented in this chapter were applied to datasets completed by multiple imputation.
Finally, in a last part we sought to determine the percentage of deaths explained by one or more variables using attributable fractions. We presented the theoretical formulations of attributable fractions, time-independent and time-dependent that are expressed as survival. We illustrated these concepts using all the survival methods presented in section 2, and compared the results. Estimates obtained with the different methods were very similar.

En zone urbaine, la pollution atmosphérique représente un enjeu majeur de santé publique. La caractérisation du risque associé dépend fortement de la qualité de l’estimation des expositions. Si les études étiologiques s’appuient maintenant souvent sur des modèles ayant une résolution spatiale fine, les études d’impact sanitaire (EIS) reposent encore généralement sur des approches avec une faible résolution spatiale. Ces contrastes spatiaux pourraient entraîner des inégalités sociales dans la distribution de l’impact sanitaire des polluants atmosphériques. D’autres facteurs, et en particulier le bruit, partagent les mêmes sources et ont potentiellement des effets sur la santé, et devraient aussi être pris en compte dans les études épidémiologiques. Les objectifs étaient : 1. D’étudier la possibilité de modéliser la distribution des particules ultrafines (UFP) en milieu urbain, et d’évaluer la corrélation entre UFP et bruit ; 2. De réaliser une EIS des particules fines avec une résolution spatiale fine, et d’investiguer les inégalités socio-économiques dans le fardeau de maladie généré par les particules ; 3. D’estimer les bénéfices sanitaires de scénarios théoriques de réduction de la pollution de l’air à l’échelle urbaine.Le premier objectif fait partie du projet Tri-tabs, conduit dans les villes de Bâle, Gérone et Grenoble. Des mesures de 20 min du bruit routier et du trafic, mais pas des UFP, étaient fortement reproductibles sur plusieurs mois. Sur des mesures simultanées, la corrélation entre le bruit et les UFP était modérée, ce qui ouvre la possibilité d’un ajustement réciproque pour de futures études épidémiologiques, permettant ainsi de démêler leurs potentiels effets court terme.Le second objectif se focalise sur le long terme. La plupart du temps, les études d’impact sanitaire ne prennent pas en compte les variations spatiales des concentrations en polluants en zone urbaine. Dans les agglomérations de Grenoble et Lyon en 2012, l’exposition aux PM2.5 a été estimée à une échelle de 10×10 m en combinant un modèle de dispersion à des données de densité de population. Les événements de santé retenus étaient la mortalité ainsi que l’incidence du cancer du poumon (Grenoble) et des petits poids des naissances à terme. Les estimations de l’impact sanitaire ont été répétées en considérant les concentrations en polluants de façon homogène au sein de chaque agglomération. La proportion de cas attribuables à la pollution de l’air était de 3–8% pour la mortalité et 9–43% pour les petits poids de naissances à terme. A Grenoble, 6,8% des nouveaux cas de cancer du poumon étaient attribuables à la pollution de l’air. L’impact était sous-estimé de 8 à 20% lorsque les stations de mesure de fond étaient utilisées. Le risque attribuable était plus important dans les quartiers dont le niveau de défaveur sociale était intermédiaire ou légèrement au-delà.Nous avons estimé l’impact de scénarios de réduction des niveaux de particules fines. Les scénarios visant une réduction de ces niveaux de 5% permettraient une réduction d’environ 10% des décès attribuables aux particules, tandis que les actions visant à réduire uniquement la pollution chez les 10% d’habitants les plus exposés ne procureraient qu’un gain sanitaire marginal (environ 1%). En conclusion, nous avons montré que les mesures à court terme ne peuvent pas être utilisées pour modéliser les UFP en zone urbaine ; nous avons été parmi les premiers à réaliser une EIS s’appuyant sur un modèle de dispersion à résolution spatiale fine, et à avoir intégré les petits poids de naissances. Nos estimations ont montré que les stations de fond utilisées couramment en France pour les EIS tendent à sous-estimer les expositions, comparées à un modèle de dispersion. Notre estimation de la réduction des niveaux de particules fines nécessaire pour atteindre une réduction significative de l’impact sanitaire de la pollution de l’air en zone urbaine pourrait servir de guide à des politiques publiques. / In urban areas, atmospheric pollution represents a major threat to human health. The accurate characterization of this threat relies centrally on the quality of exposure assessment. It also requires assessment of other factors sharing the same sources and also possibly impacting health, such as noise. Fine-scale exposure assessment of air pollution levels may allow identifying spatial contrasts. Such spatial variations may lead to social differences in the distribution of the health impact of these pollutants.The general aims of the PhD were: 1. To study the possibility to model ultrafine particles distribution in urban areas and assess the correlation of ultrafine particles levels with road traffic noise; 2. To assess the risk incurred by air pollution exposure with a fine-scale modelling approach and investigate the potential socio-economic disparities in health burden induced by particulate matter; 3. To investigate the health benefits expected from hypothetical scenarios of reduction of air pollution levels at the urban scale.The first aim relies on Tri-tabs project, conducted in three European cities (Basel, Girona, Grenoble). Measurements during 20 minutes of outdoor noise and traffic, but not of UFP, were strongly reproducible over durations of a couple of days or months. In these areas, on the short-term, noise levels and UFP concentrations exhibited relatively moderate correlations, which may allow adjustment for mutual confounding in epidemiological studies, thus allowing to disentangle their possible short-term health effects.The second aim introduces health effects, and focuses on the longer term. Risk assessment studies often ignore within-city spatial variations of air pollutants. In Grenoble and Lyon areas (0.4 and 1.2 million inhabitants, respectively) in 2012, PM2.5 exposure was estimated on a 10×10 m grid by coupling a dispersion model to fine-scale data on population density. Outcomes were mortality, lung cancer and term low birth weight incidences. The numbers of cases attributable to air pollution were estimated overall and stratifying areas according to the European Deprivation Index, a measure of social deprivation. Estimations were repeated assuming spatial homogeneity of air pollutants within city. The proportion of cases attributable to air pollution was in the 3-8% range for mortality and 9–43% range for term low birth weight. In Grenoble, 6.8% (95% CI: 3.1–10.1%) of incident lung cancer cases were attributable to air pollution. The impact was underestimated by 8 to 20% when background monitoring stations were used to assess exposure, compared to fine-scale dispersion modeling. Health impact was highest in neighborhoods with intermediate to higher social deprivation.Several countries across Europe have implemented air pollution regulation policies, or low emission zones, France being an exception. We estimated the health impact of air pollution under different scenarios of reduction of fine particulate matter concentrations. Scenarios targeting a reduction in the PM2.5 annual averages by 5% led to a 10% decrease of the health burden, while actions aiming at only reducing the exposure of the population exposed above the 90th percentile did not yield a significant reduction of the health burden (around 1%).In conclusion, we have shown that short-term measurements cannot be used to model ultrafine particles levels in urban areas; we were among the first to rely on a fine-scale exposure model for estimating the health impact of air pollution, and quantify its impact on term low birth weight. Our estimations showed that background air quality monitoring stations used classically in France for health impact assessment studies tend to underestimate exposure, compared to a spatially-resolved dispersion model. We have provided an estimate of the air pollution decrease required to obtain a significant reduction of the health impact of air pollutants in urban areas.

Souvent diagnostiqué à un stade avancé, le cancer du pancréas (CP) est un cancer particulièrement létal pour lequel il n’y a, à ce jour, que très peu de possibilités de traitement et de diagnostic anticipé. L’identification de facteurs de risque modifiables pourrait fournir des données épidémiologiques nécessaires au soutien de la mise en place de mesures préventives. Cette thèse a pour but d’étudier l’étiologie du CP en évaluant le rôle de la consommation d’alcool et du mode de vie dans l’étude prospective européenne sur le cancer et la nutrition (EPIC), cohorte multicentrique de plus de 500,000 sujets provenant de 10 pays européens. La consommation d’alcool a d’abord été évaluée en regard du risque de CP. Les rôles des différents types d’alcools ainsi que du tabagisme dans la relation entre l’alcool et le CP ont été examinés. Cette évaluation a montré qu’une consommation d’alcool élevée était associée à une augmentation du risque de CP. Ensuite, la relation entre le Healthy Lifestyle Index, un indicateur combinant le passé tabagique, la consommation d’alcool, l’alimentation, l’anthropométrie et l’activité physique, et le risque de CP a été étudiée. Pour quantifier l’impact de l’amélioration de ces facteurs, des fractions de CP attribuables ont été estimées en considérant des scénarios hypothétiques où les participants adopteraient des modes de vie plus sains. L’adhérence à des habitudes saines était fortement et inversement associée au risque de CP. Ces travaux ont apporté des connaissances informatives sur l’étiologie du CP, et soutiennent le développement de mesures de santé publique promouvant la prévention du CP par l’adoption de modes de vie sains / Commonly diagnosed at late stage, pancreatic cancer (PC) is a highly fatal cancer with limited opportunities for early detection and effective treatment. The identification of modifiable risk factors may offer relevant scientific evidence for PC prevention. This doctoral research program investigated PC etiology through a comprehensive examination of the role of alcohol consumption and other lifestyle determinants in the occurrence of PC within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study, a multi-center cohort involving more than 500,000 participants from 10 European countries. Alcohol intake was evaluated with respect to the risk of PC. The role of different alcoholic beverages and potential effect modification by smoking habits on PC risk were also examined. Findings from this evaluation provided epidemiological evidence that large intakes of alcohol were associated with an increased risk of PC.The association between the healthy lifestyle index, a score combining information on smoking history, alcohol intake, diet, obesity, and physical activity and the risk of PC was examined. To quantify the impact of modifying several lifestyle factors, population attributable fractions were estimated assuming counterfactual scenarios whereby study participants hypothetically moved towards healthier behaviors. Adherence to healthy lifestyle habits was strongly inversely related to PC. This comprehensive evaluation provides informative insights on the etiology of PC and supports the development and implementation of public health guidelines to promote individuals’ adoption of healthy lifestyle habits for PC prevention

Hintergrund. Deutschland gehörte im Jahr 2019 zu den Ländern mit dem weltweit höchsten Pro-Kopf-Alkoholkonsum, welcher wesentlich zur Krankheitslast beiträgt. Fragestellung. In dieser Modellierungsstudie schätzen wir, wie viele alkoholbedingte inzidente Krankheits- sowie Todesfälle in Deutschland im Jahr 2019 hätten vermieden werden können, wenn die derzeitigen Verbrauchssteuern auf Alkohol um 20%, 50% und 100%erhöht worden wären. Methodik. Ausgangspunkt für die Modellierung sind die spezifischen Verbrauchssteuern auf alkoholische Getränke in Deutschland. Drei Szenarien wurden unter der Annahme, dass die resultierende Steuererhöhung vollständig in den Verkaufspreis übertragen wird, und unter Verwendung von getränkespezifischen Preiselastizitäten modelliert. Mittels des sich daraus ergebenden Rückgangs im jährlichen Pro-Kopf-Konsum und der krankheitsspezifischen Risikofunktionen wurde die vermeidbare alkoholbedingte Inzidenz bzw. Mortalität geschätzt. Berücksichtigt wurden alkoholbedingte Erkrankungen des Herz-Kreislauf- und Verdauungssystems, Alkoholabhängigkeit, Epilepsie, Infektionskrankheiten sowie Verletzungen und Unfälle. Ergebnisse. Insgesamt hätten durch eine Verdoppelung der spezifischen Verbrauchssteuern auf Alkohol im Jahr 2019 bis zu 200.400 alkoholbedingte Erkrankungs- und Verletzungsfälle sowie 2800 Todesfälle vermieden werden können. Dies entspricht knapp 7% der berücksichtigten alkoholbedingten Krankheits- bzw. Todesfälle in Deutschland. Diskussion. Alkoholbedingte Erkrankungen und Verletzungen sind vermeidbar und eine Erhöhung der spezifischen Verbrauchssteuern auf alkoholische Getränke in Deutschland könnte die alkoholbedingte Krankheitslast substanziell reduzieren. / Background. In 2019, Germany was among the countries with the highest alcohol per capita consumption in the world, which contributes significantly to the burden of disease. Aim. In this modelling study, we estimate how many alcohol-attributable diseases and deaths in Germany could have been avoided in 2019 if current alcohol excise taxes were increased by 20%, 50%, and 100%. Methods. The starting point for the modelling was the national beverage-specific alcohol taxes. Three scenarios were modelled under the assumption that the resulting tax increase would be fully transferred to the retail prices. Beverage-specific price elasticities were used. Based on the estimated resulting decline in annual per capita consumption and the disease-specific risk functions, we modelled the avoidable incidence and mortality for alcohol-attributable diseases for 2019. Alcohol-attributable diseases of the cardiovascular and digestive systems, alcohol dependence, epilepsy, and infectious diseases as well as injuries and accidentswere considered. Results. Overall, doubling the beveragespecific alcohol taxes could have avoided up to 200,400 alcohol-attributable cases of disease and injury as well as 2800 deaths in Germany in 2019. This corresponds to just under 7% of the modelled new alcohol-attributable cases of disease and death in Germany. Discussion. Alcohol-attributable diseases and injuries are preventable and an increase in the alcohol taxes could substantially reduce the alcohol-attributable burden of disease in Germany.

Le risque attribuable (RA) mesure la proportion de cas de maladie qui peuvent être attribués à une exposition au niveau de la population. Plusieurs définitions et méthodes d'estimation du RA ont été proposées pour des données de survie. En utilisant des simulations, nous comparons quatre méthodes d'estimation du RA dans le contexte de l'analyse de survie : deux méthodes non paramétriques basées sur l'estimateur de Kaplan-Meier, une méthode semi-paramétrique basée sur le modèle de Cox à risques proportionnels et une méthode paramétrique basée sur un modèle à risques proportionnels avec un risque de base constant par morceaux. Nos travaux suggèrent d'utiliser les approches semi-paramétrique et paramétrique pour l'estimation du RA lorsque l'hypothèse des risques proportionnels est vérifiée. Nous appliquons nos méthodes aux données de la cohorte E3N pour estimer la proportion de cas de cancer du sein invasif attribuables à l'utilisation de traitements hormonaux de la ménopause (THM). Nous estimons qu'environ 9 % des cas de cancer du sein sont attribuables à l'utilisation des THM à l'inclusion. Dans le cas d'une exposition protectrice, une alternative au RA est la fraction préventive (FP) qui mesure la proportion de cas de maladie évités. Cette mesure n'a pas été considérée dans le contexte de l'analyse de survie. Nous proposons une définition de la FP dans ce contexte et des méthodes d'estimation en utilisant des approches semi-paramétrique et paramétrique avec une extension permettant de prendre en compte les risques concurrents. L'application aux données de la cohorte des Trois Cités (3C) estime qu'environ 9 % de cas d'accident vasculaire cérébral peuvent être évités chez les personnes âgées par l'utilisation des hypolipémiants. Notre étude montre que la FP peut être utilisée pour évaluer l'impact des médicaments bénéfiques dans les études de cohorte tout en tenant compte des facteurs de confusion potentiels et des risques concurrents. / The attributable risk (AR) measures the proportion of disease cases that can be attributed to an exposure in the population. Several definitions and estimation methods have been proposed for survival data. Using simulations, we compared four methods for estimating AR defined in terms of survival functions: two nonparametric methods based on Kaplan-Meier's estimator, one semiparametric based on Cox's model, and one parametric based on the piecewise constant hazards model. Our results suggest to use the semiparametric or parametric approaches to estimate AR if the proportional hazards assumption appears appropriate. These methods were applied to the E3N women cohort data to estimate the AR of breast cancer due to menopausal hormone therapy (MHT). We showed that about 9% of cases of breast cancer were attributable to MHT use at baseline. In case of a protective exposure, an alternative to the AR is the prevented fraction (PF) which measures the proportion of disease cases that could be avoided in the presence of a protective exposure in the population. The definition and estimation of PF have never been considered for cohort studies in the survival analysis context. We defined the PF in cohort studies with survival data and proposed two estimation methods: a semiparametric method based on Cox’s proportional hazards model and a parametric method based on a piecewise constant hazards model with an extension to competing risks. Using data of the Three-City (3C) cohort study, we found that approximately 9% of cases of stroke could be avoided using lipid-lowering drugs (statins or fibrates) in the elderly population. Our study shows that the PF can be estimated to evaluate the impact of beneficial drugs in observational cohort studies while taking potential confounding factors and competing risks into account.