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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
1061

Régénération électrochimique de carbones nanoporeux utilisés pour le piégeage de micropolluants / Electrochemical regeneration of nanoporous carbons for micropollutants trapping

Gineys, Mickael 03 July 2015 (has links)
Les carbones activés, de par leur nanotexture développée, sont performants pour l’élimination de micropolluants organiques à l’état de traces. Ils trouvent une place prépondérante au sein des usines de traitement pour la dépollution de l’eau. Néanmoins, l’adsorption de ces composés, conduit à la saturation du matériau selon un processus d’adsorption irréversible. Un procédé électrochimique capable d’opérer à la régénération in situ des adsorbants carbonés chargés en polluants est proposé. L’applicabilité du procédé a été évaluée sur une grande diversité de micropolluants rencontrés dans les effluents traités. Ces molécules s’adsorbent préférentiellement au niveau des ultramicropores via des interactions dispersives de type π-π. La régénération électrochimique de l’adsorbant s’effectue grâce à l’application d’une polarisation, qui génère une interface chargée et induit un champ électrostatique entre les deux électrodes. La décomposition de l’électrolyte, confiné dans les pores, engendre des effets de pH localisés, responsables de la dissociation de la molécule adsorbée. La désorption sous polarisation fait intervenir des répulsions électrostatiques entre la surface chargée du matériau carboné et le polluant dissocié. Ce procédé de régénération, applicable à de nombreux micropolluants, montre des efficacités différentes selon de la nature du polluant adsorbé. La désorption est favorisée pour des polluants de petite taille, facilement ionisables et solubles ; des efficacités de régénération élevées (jusqu’à 80 %) à partir du quatrième cycle sont reportées. Une partie des polluants est piégée irréversiblement soit parce qu’ils sont bloqués dans les ultramicropores, soit parce qu’ils s’adsorbent au niveau de sites énergétiques ou via des interactions plus spécifiques. L’obstruction cumulative de la porosité par un adsorbat volumineux par exemple, engendre une diminution des efficacités de régénération avec la répétition des cycles. / Due to their developed porosity, the activated carbons are efficient for the removal of organic micropollutants at trace concentration. They find an important place in wastewater treatment for water decontamination. Nevertheless, the adsorption of these compounds leads to the adsorbent saturation and therefore makes the process irreversible. We have developed an electrochemical process which is able to operate to the in situ adsorbent regeneration. The process applicability was assessed on a wide range of micropollutants, found in the treated effluents. These molecules are adsorbed in the ultramicropores through π-π interactions. The electrochemical regeneration of the loaded adsorbent is performed by applying a polarization, which generates an electrically charged carbon surface and induced an electrostatic field between the two electrodes. The electrochemical decomposition of the electrolyte inside the porosity, leads to local pH effects which are responsible of the dissociation of the adsorbed molecule. The desorption under polarization implies electrostatic repulsions between the polarized carbon surface and the dissociated pollutant. This regeneration process can be broadened to numerous micropollutants and shows an efficiency which depends on the adsorbat nature. We have shown that the desorption of small pollutants which are easily ionisable and soluble is promoted. High desorption levels until 80 % after four desorption cycle are indeed reported. A part of the adsorbed molecules is trapped irreversibly either because they are blocked in the ultramicropores or due to the micropollutant adsorption at high energy sites and/or through specific strong interactions. For example, the porosity obstruction caused by a voluminous molecule leads to the decrease of the regeneration efficiency along the cycles repetition.
1062

A volatilidade da taxa de câmbio nos países emergentes : uma análise para a economia brasileira

Blumm, Carla Luisa January 2011 (has links)
As décadas de 1990 e 2000 foram marcadas por uma série de crises cambiais e financeiras no mundo, atingindo tanto os países emergentes quantos os países desenvolvidos, causando desajustes estruturais, financeiros e reais, nesses países. Identificar as crises cambiais e financeiras é mais complexo no mundo real do que na teoria, uma vez que os regimes cambiais em geral são flexíveis, mas administrados pelas autoridades monetárias, e as taxa de juros, em um contexto de livre mobilidade de capitais, são bastante voláteis. O objetivo do trabalho é centrar a atenção na condução da política cambial por parte das autoridades monetárias, em especial às dos países emergentes, como estratégia de estabilização dos preços e, marginalmente, de crescimento econômico, levando-se em consideração que uma taxa de câmbio de desequilíbrio tende não somente a afetar a dinâmica de preços e a trajetória de crescimento da atividade econômica, mas, também, a protagonizar desequilíbrios de balanço de pagamentos e, por conseguinte, crises cambiais. Diante deste contexto, procura-se verificar a relação de causalidade entre a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio e algumas variáveis macroeconômicas selecionadas, com o propósito de tentar encontrar elementos comuns que permitam entender os motivos que determinam o surgimento de crises cambiais nos países, independente do regime cambial vigente. Para tanto, torna-se necessário uma análise, através tanto da revisão bibliográfica quanto da estatística-descritiva, do funcionamento do mercado de câmbio, dos modelos de crises cambiais e dos desdobramentos das crises que afetaram os países emergentes, nas décadas de 1990 e 2000. Por fim, analisar os movimentos das variáveis macroeconômicas selecionadas e sua relação com o mercado de câmbio nos permite entender, ou verificar, quais fatores, com ou sem relação direta com os fundamentos macroeconômicos, influenciam a dinâmica econômica e a ocorrência de crises cambiais. / The decades of 1990 and 2000 were marked by a series of exchange rate and financial crises in the world, affecting both emerging and developed countries, and causing structural, financial, and real maladjustments in such countries. Identifying the exchange rate and financial crises is more complex in the real world than it is in theory, since exchange rate regimes in general are flexible, but administered by monetary authorities. In addition, the interest rates, in a context of free capital mobility, are quite volatile. The objective of this paper is to focus the attention on the conduct of the exchange rate policy by the monetary authorities, particularly those in emerging countries, as a strategy for the stabilization of prices and, to a smaller extent, of economic growth, taking into consideration that an imbalanced exchange rate tends not only to affect the price dynamics and the growth path of economic activity, but also to bring about disequilibria in balance of payments, and, as a consequence, exchange rate crises. In light of this context, it seeks to check whether there is a causal link between the volatility of the exchange rate and some selected macroeconomic variables, with a view to seeking common elements that enable an understanding of the reasons that determine the emergence of exchange rate crises in the countries, regardless of the existing exchange rate regime. To this end, it is necessary to carry out analysis, both through bibliographic review and descriptive statistics, of the functioning of the exchange market, of the currency crisis models, and of the outcomes of the crises that affected emerging countries in the decades of 1990 and 2000. Finally, analyzing the movements of the selected macroeconomic variables and their relation to the exchange market enables us to understand, or verify, which factors – either directly related to the macroeconomic fundamentals or not – influence the economic dynamics and the occurrence of exchange rate crises.
1063

The influence of the global crisis on the slowdown of the emerging markets / A influência da crise global sobre o abrandamento dos mercados emergentes

Rocha, Beatriz de Sousa 14 November 2014 (has links)
Submitted by Beatriz Sousa Rocha (sousarocha.beatriz@gmail.com) on 2015-03-10T15:30:30Z No. of bitstreams: 1 BeatrizRocha_The influence of the global crisis on the slowdown of the EM.pdf: 1365314 bytes, checksum: 82f9b310310d1e4103974d5d4aceeb3c (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br) on 2015-03-10T18:01:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 BeatrizRocha_The influence of the global crisis on the slowdown of the EM.pdf: 1365314 bytes, checksum: 82f9b310310d1e4103974d5d4aceeb3c (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-11T12:48:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 BeatrizRocha_The influence of the global crisis on the slowdown of the EM.pdf: 1365314 bytes, checksum: 82f9b310310d1e4103974d5d4aceeb3c (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-11-14 / This paper investigates the empirical relationship between the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the 2010-2012 sovereign debt crisis and the recent emerging equity markets slowdown. The exposure of the emerging markets to the crisis of the developed markets is quantified using an interdependence factor model. The results show that emerging markets did suffer a shock from both crisis, yet they recovered while the developed markets were still struggling. After the sovereign debt crisis emerging markets slowed down synchronized with the developed market’s recovery. The paper further analyses whether capital flows explain the connection between these two events, finding this relationship exists. / A presente dissertação investiga a relação empírica entre a crise financeira de 2007-2009, a crise da dívida soberana de 2010-2012 e a recente desaceleração dos mercados de capitais nos mercados emergentes. A exposição dos mercados emergentes à crise nos desenvolvidos é quantificada através de um modelo de interdependência de factores. Os resultados mostram que estes sofreram, de facto, um choque provocado por ambas as crises. No entanto, este foi um choque de curta duração enquanto os mercados desenvolvidos ainda lutavam com as consequências resultantes das sucessivas crises financeiras. A análise do modelo mostra ainda que após a crise da divida soberana, enquanto os mercados desenvolvidos iniciam a sua recuperação, os emergentes desaceleram o seu crescimento. De forma a completar a análise do modelo foi efectuado um estudo sobre a influência dos fluxos de capitais entre os mercados emergentes e desenvolvidos na direcção do seu crescimento, revelando que existe uma relação entre estes dois eventos.
1064

Dinamicity and unpredictability of emerging markets: an implementation of Goetzamnn and Jorion (1999)

Toto, Stefano 27 February 2015 (has links)
Submitted by Stefano Toto (stefanototo92@gmail.com) on 2015-03-24T18:06:58Z No. of bitstreams: 1 FInal version Stefano Toto .pdf: 2666174 bytes, checksum: a92ae5ee1fd88876c05d33145bf36d74 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br) on 2015-03-30T13:27:41Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 FInal version Stefano Toto .pdf: 2666174 bytes, checksum: a92ae5ee1fd88876c05d33145bf36d74 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-03-30T13:36:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 FInal version Stefano Toto .pdf: 2666174 bytes, checksum: a92ae5ee1fd88876c05d33145bf36d74 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-02-27 / This research is to be considered as an implementation of Goetzmann and Jorion (1999). In order to provide a more realistic scenario, we have implemented a Garch (1,1) approach for the residuals of returns and a multifactor model thus to better replicate the systematic risk of a market. The new simulations reveal some new aspects of emerging markets’ expected returns: the unpredictability of the emerging markets’ returns with the global factor does not depend on the year of emergence and that the unsystematic risk explains the returns of emerging markets for a much larger period of time. The results also reveal the high impact of Exchange rate, Commodities index and of the Global factor in emerging markets’ expected return.
1065

Risky business: social media metrics and political risk analysis

Nelson, Laura Kathleen January 2015 (has links)
Submitted by Laura Nelson (nelson.lkn@gmail.com) on 2015-04-13T21:22:34Z No. of bitstreams: 1 L Nelson - MPGI Thesis 2015.pdf: 3337611 bytes, checksum: 0d2c94b96220464f0b91982c3a7f727d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br) on 2015-04-14T12:04:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 L Nelson - MPGI Thesis 2015.pdf: 3337611 bytes, checksum: 0d2c94b96220464f0b91982c3a7f727d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-04-14T12:19:03Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 L Nelson - MPGI Thesis 2015.pdf: 3337611 bytes, checksum: 0d2c94b96220464f0b91982c3a7f727d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015 / Quantifying country risk – and in particular, political risk – poses great difficulties for business, institutions, and investors alike. As economic indicators are updated far less frequently than Facebook feeds, it can be challenging for political risk analysts to understand, and more importantly measure, what is taking place in real time on the ground. However, with the growing availability of big data from social media platforms such as Twitter, now is an opportune moment to examine the types of social media metrics that are available and the limitations to applying them to country risk analysis, particularly during episodes of political upheaval. This study, using the qualitative method of bibliographical research, identifies the current landscape of data available from Twitter, analyzes the current and potential methods of analysis, and discusses their possible application to the field of political risk analysis. After a thorough review of the field to date, and given the expected near- to medium-term technological advancements, this study concludes that despite obstacles like the cost of data storage, limitations of real-time analysis, and the potential for data manipulation, the potential benefits of the application of social media metrics to the field of political risk analysis, particularly for structured-qualitative and quantitative models, outweigh the challenges. / A quantificação do risco país – e do risco político em particular – levanta várias dificuldades às empresas, instituições, e investidores. Como os indicadores econômicos são atualizados com muito menos freqüência do que o Facebook, compreender, e mais precisamente, medir – o que está ocorrendo no terreno em tempo real pode constituir um desafio para os analistas de risco político. No entanto, com a crescente disponibilidade de 'big data' de ferramentas sociais como o Twitter, agora é o momento oportuno para examinar os tipos de métricas das ferramentas sociais que estão disponíveis e as limitações da sua aplicação para a análise de risco país, especialmente durante episódios de violência política. Utilizando o método qualitativo de pesquisa bibliográfica, este estudo identifica a paisagem atual de dados disponíveis a partir do Twitter, analisa os métodos atuais e potenciais de análise, e discute a sua possível aplicação no campo da análise de risco político. Depois de uma revisão completa do campo até hoje, e tendo em conta os avanços tecnológicos esperados a curto e médio prazo, este estudo conclui que, apesar de obstáculos como o custo de armazenamento de informação, as limitações da análise em tempo real, e o potencial para a manipulação de dados, os benefícios potenciais da aplicação de métricas de ferramentas sociais para o campo da análise de risco político, particularmente para os modelos qualitativos-estruturados e quantitativos, claramente superam os desafios.
1066

Effect of price and in-store promotion on sales: a study of distinct regions in an emerging market

Sanchez, Juan Machado 11 May 2016 (has links)
Submitted by Juan Sanchez (juan_msanchez@msn.com) on 2016-06-06T13:44:26Z No. of bitstreams: 1 marketing-sanchez-projeto VF 6.pdf: 1259869 bytes, checksum: e6fdb1cce68a5d409ee6ccd47f4f1771 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ana Luiza Holme (ana.holme@fgv.br) on 2016-06-06T13:46:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 marketing-sanchez-projeto VF 6.pdf: 1259869 bytes, checksum: e6fdb1cce68a5d409ee6ccd47f4f1771 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-06T15:11:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 marketing-sanchez-projeto VF 6.pdf: 1259869 bytes, checksum: e6fdb1cce68a5d409ee6ccd47f4f1771 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-05-11 / Increasing competition caused by globalization, high growth of some emerging markets and stagnation of developed economies motivate Consumer Packaged Goods (CPGs) manufacturers to drive their attention to emerging markets. These companies are expected to adapt their marketing activities to the particularities of these markets in order to succeed. In a country classified as emerging market, regions are not alike and some contrasts can be identified. In addition, divergences of marketing variables effect can also be observed in the different retail formats. The retail formats in emerging markets can be segregated in chain self-service and traditional full-service. Thus, understanding the effectiveness of marketing mix not only in country aggregated level data can be an important contribution. Inasmuch as companies aim to generate profits from emerging markets, price is an important marketing variable in the process of creating competitive advantage. Along with price, promotional variables such as in-store displays and price cut are often viewed as temporary incentives to increase short-term sales. Managers defend the usage of promotions as being the most reliable and fastest manner to increase sales and then short-term profits. However, some authors alert about sales promotions disadvantages; mainly in the long-term. This study investigates the effect of price and in-store promotions on sales volume in different regions within an emerging market. The database used is at SKU level for juice, being segregated in the Brazilian northeast and southeast regions and corresponding to the period from January 2011 to January 2013. The methodological approach is descriptive quantitative involving validation tests, application of multivariate and temporal series analysis method. The Vector-Autoregressive (VAR) model was used to perform the analysis. Results suggest similar price sensitivity in the northeast and southeast region and greater in-store promotion sensitivity in the northeast. Price reductions show negative results in the long-term (persistent sales in six months) and in-store promotion, positive results. In-store promotion shows no significant influence on sales in chain self-service stores while price demonstrates no relevant impact on sales in traditional full-service stores. Hence, this study contributes to the business environment for companies wishing to manage price and sales promotions for consumer brands in regions with different features within an emerging market. As a theoretical contribution, this study fills an academic gap providing a dedicated price and sales promotion study to contrast regions in an emerging market. / O aumento da competição causada pela globalização, alto crescimento dos mercados emergentes e a estagnação dos mercados em países desenvolvidos levaram empresas de Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) a direcionar sua atenção aos mercados emergentes. Estas empresas devem adaptar suas atividades de marketing as particularidades destes mercados para obter sucesso. Em um país classificado como emergente, diferentes regiões possuem distintas características. Adicionalmente, divergências no efeito das variáveis de marketing também podem ser observadas nos diferentes formatos de varejo. Os formatos de varejo em um mercado emergente podem ser classificados em autosserviço (chain self-service) e tradicional de serviço (traditional full-service). Desta forma, entender a eficácia do marketing mix não apenas no nível agregado de país pode ser uma contribuição importante. Na medida em que as empresas visam gerar lucros em mercados emergentes, o preço é uma importante variável de marketing no processo de criação de uma vantagem competitiva. Junto com o preço, variáveis de promoção como displays nas lojas e redução de preços são muitas vezes vistos como incentivos temporários para aumentar as vendas no curto prazo. Executivos defendem o uso de promoções como sendo a maneira mais confiável e mais rápida de aumentar vendas e o lucro no curto prazo. No entanto, alguns autores alertam sobre as desvantagens de promoção de vendas; principalmente, no longo prazo. Este estudo investiga o efeito de preço e promoção em lojas no volume de vendas em diferentes regiões dentro de um mercado emergente. A base de dados utilizada esta no nível SKU para o suco, sendo segregada nas regiões do sudeste e nordeste brasileiro, correspondendo ao período entre janeiro de 2011 a janeiro de 2013. A abordagem metodológica de validação é quantitativa descritiva, sendo aplicado um método de análise de séries multivariadas e temporais. O modelo de vetor autorregressivo (VAR) foi utilizado para realizar a análise. Os resultados sugerem uma sensibilidade de preço semelhante na região do nordeste e do sudeste e maior sensibilidade de promoção em lojas no nordeste. Reduções de preço mostram resultados negativos no longo prazo (persistência do volume de vendas em seis meses) enquanto promoção em lojas teve resultados positivos. Promoção em lojas não mostra influência significativa sobre as vendas em lojas de autosserviço, por outro lado, preço demonstra não ter impacto relevante sobre as vendas em lojas tradicionais de serviço. Assim, este estudo contribui ao cenário executivo para empresas que almejam aperfeiçoar a promoções de vendas e precificação de suas marcas em regiões com diferentes características dentro de um mercado emergente. Como contribuição teórica, este estudo preenche uma lacuna acadêmica fornecendo um estudo de preço e promoção de vendas dedicado ao contraste de regiões em um mercado emergente.
1067

Sequential relationship: innovation, exportation and performance, and effect of government subsidy - evidence from emerging economies

Lee, Luda 22 February 2017 (has links)
Submitted by Luda Lee (luda.lee.sc@gmail.com) on 2017-05-03T20:29:55Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertation_EBAPE_mestrado_Luda Lee_Final.pdf: 1581307 bytes, checksum: 547ae26c1c51f28e87c3cc2c14cc27f0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2017-05-05T12:21:08Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertation_EBAPE_mestrado_Luda Lee_Final.pdf: 1581307 bytes, checksum: 547ae26c1c51f28e87c3cc2c14cc27f0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-05-16T14:52:51Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertation_EBAPE_mestrado_Luda Lee_Final.pdf: 1581307 bytes, checksum: 547ae26c1c51f28e87c3cc2c14cc27f0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-02-22 / This study examines the sequential relationship between a firm’s innovation activity, export intensity and performance in emerging economies. Hypotheses were generated based on this framework, and they also modeled the roles played by government subsidy as moderator. Our hypotheses were tested on a sample that includes Chinese, Indian and Russian manufacturing firms. Results in a sequential model show that (1) innovation activity positively and indirectly affects firm performance through exporting, (2) government subsidy strengthens the positive relationship between export intensity and firm performance in emerging economies. However, although previous studies have theoretically identified that the government has a significant role on the relation between firm innovation and export performance, no empirical evidence could be found through this study. Our findings uphold previous theories that the effort of firms to develop their innovation leads to a firm’s increase of export and profit, and the moderating role of the government substantially affect export intensity in emerging economies.
1068

A ascensão da China e os seus impactos para o leste asiático

Silva, Athos Munhoz Moreira da January 2015 (has links)
O eixo central deste trabalho é a análise dos impactos que a ascensão da China poderá trazer ao Leste Asiático. Para cumprir esta tarefa, divide-se o desenvolvimento do trabalho em três capítulos. O primeiro investiga o fenômeno chamado de ascensão da China, que consiste no incremento das capacidades desse país e da consequente elevação de seu status relativo em âmbito regional (e global). Considera-se que este processo deve ser tomado em perspectiva histórica a partir do modo como o país e sua sociedade tradicionalmente se relacionaram com o exterior. Argumenta-se que a ascensão da China provoca uma alteração fundamental na polaridade e na polarização regionais, com implicações em âmbito global. Desta feita, o segundo capítulo consiste em examinar o contexto regional a partir de análises das políticas externa e de segurança dos principais atores regionais para o Leste Asiático. Isso é feito através de dois pontos de vista: a atuação regional e as relações com a China, incluindo a reação à ascensão da China. Constata-se que diante da rivalidade estratégica entre a potência hegemônica e a potência ascendente — respectivamente, Estados Unidos e China — os demais atores regionais buscam manter sua autonomia e margem de manobra entre as duas potências. O terceiro e último capítulo tem por propósito elaborar uma série de possíveis perspectivas para os desdobramentos regionais, baseado nas implicações para a polaridade, para a polarização e para as possibilidades de conflito e concertação regionais. Para tanto, utiliza-se os indicadores levantados nos capítulos anteriores e nas análises e proposições já feitas sobre o assunto. Considera-se três possíveis perspectivas: uma hegemonia chinesa sem ocorrência de guerra central; o acirramento das tensões entre Pequim e Washington, com possibilidade de guerra central; e concertação e criação de mecanismos de governança entre os atores regionais, podendo esta concertação ser anárquica — sem líderes aparentes — ou hierárquica — condomínio de potências —. Considera-se que a primeira e a terceira perspectivas apresentam a possibilidade do surgimento uma nova ordem regional sem guerra central, enquanto o segundo considera que não haverá novo tipo de governança no contexto da rivalidade estratégica entre China e Estados Unidos. Por fim, vislumbram-se algumas possibilidades para o Brasil e futuras agendas de pesquisa. / The central axis of this work is the analysis of the impacts of China's rise may have on East Asia. In order to accomplish this, research is divided in three chapters. The first explores the China's rise as a phenomenon which consists of the increase of Chinese capabilities and the consequent elevation of its relative status on a regional (and global) level. This process must be taken into account within a historical perspective, considering how the country and its society traditionally relate with the exterior. The proposed argument is that China's rise generates a fundamental change in the regional polarity and polarization, with global and regional-level implications. Thus, the second chapter consists of a study of the regional context based on an analysis of the foreign and defense policies of the main regional actors in East Asia. Two points are considered for this: their regional actions and their relations with China, more specifically, how they deal with the Chinese change of status. Accordingly, these regional actors seek to maintain their autonomy and leeway vis-à-vis the strategic rivalry between the hegemon and the rising power: the US and China respectively. The third and last chapter elaborates a series of possible regional scenarios, based on their implications to polarity, polarization, and the likelihood of conflict or regional concertation. To achieve this, this assessment uses indicators presented in the previous chapters and from analyses and propositions by other authors. Three main scenarios are considered: a Chinese hegemony without a central war, the intensification of tensions between Beijing and Washington (with a likely central war), and the creation of governance and concertation mechanisms between the regional actors. These mechanisms might be anarchical — without apparent leaders — or hierarchical. Further examination shows that the first and third scenarios present the possibility of the emergence of a new regional order without a central war, while the second scenario deems that there will not be a new governance type within the strategic rivalry context. Lastly, this work offers some of the opportunities this phenomenon may bring to Brazil, as well as suggests a further research agenda.
1069

A política externa na promoção do desenvolvimento : os casos brasileiro e turco

Spohr, Alexandre Piffero January 2016 (has links)
O papel da política externa na promoção do desenvolvimento de um país é um elemento de grande importância para o entendimento de sua trajetória nacional, tendo especial relevância quando analisados os casos de países emergentes. A presente dissertação visa a analisar as linhas de ação da política externa que auxiliam a estratégia de desenvolvimento de países emergentes. Para tanto, ele parte da hipótese de que seis linhas de ação se coadunam para atingir esse objetivo: (a) promoção comercial; (b) política de investimentos; (c) negociações econômicas, financeiras e comerciais; (d) direitos de exploração de recursos; (e) cooperação internacional; e (f) projeção internacional. Para desenvolver essas linhas de ação, a pesquisa se vale de literatura especializada das áreas de economia política e política internacional, como Immanuel Wallerstein, Giovanni Arrighi, Hélio Jaguaribe, Ha-Joon Chang, Alice Amsden, e Celso Furtado. Para verificar sua aplicabilidade, são analisados os casos de Brasil e Turquia, dois países emergentes. As mudanças testemunhadas na política externa dos dois países desde 2002/2003 se relacionam à eleição do Partido dos Trabalhadores no Brasil e do Partido da Justiça e Desenvolvimento na Turquia, que passaram a questionar as assimetrias de poder global em fóruns internacionais. A pesquisa é conduzida através de dois métodos qualitativos principais: literatura especializada na economia política e na política externa dos dois países e entrevistas com representantes dos ministérios das relações exteriores e acadêmicos. / Foreign policy’s role in promoting a country’s development is a matter of great importance to understand its national trajectory, especially in emerging countries’ case. This dissertation aims to analyze foreign policy’s lines of action that help emerging countries’ development strategy. In order to do so, it has as its main hypothesis that six lines of action work together toward that goal: (a) trade promotion; (b) investment policy; (c) economic, financial and commercial negotiations; (d) resource exploration rights; (e) international cooperation; and (f) international projection. To develop these lines of action, the research uses a set of specialized literature both from political economy and international politics, such as Immanuel Wallerstein, Giovanni Arrighi, Hélio Jaguaribe, Ha-Joon Chang, Alice Amsden, and Celso Furtado. To check their applicability, it analyzes the cases of Brazil and Turkey, two emerging countries. The changes undergone in both countries’ foreign policy since 2002/2003 are related to the election of Brazilian Worker’s Party and Turkish Justice and Development Party, which questioned global power asymmetries in international forums. The research is conducted through two main qualitative methods: specialized literature on both countries’ political economy and foreign policy, and interviews with foreign ministries’ representatives and scholars. / El papel de la política exterior en la promoción del desarrollo de un país es un elemento de gran importancia para la comprensión de su trayectoria nacional, teniendo especial relevancia cuando analizados los casos de países emergentes. Esta investigación visa a analizar las líneas de acción de la política exterior que ayudan la estrategia de desarrollo de países emergentes. Para eso, él parte de la hipótesis de que seis líneas de acción trabajan juntas para alcanzar ese objetivo: (a) promoción comercial; (b) política de investimentos; (c) negociaciones económicas, financieras y comerciales; (d) derechos de exploración de recursos; (e) cooperación internacional; y (f) proyección internacional. Para desarrollar esas líneas de acción, la disertación emplea literatura especializada de las áreas de economía política y de política internacional, como Immanuel Wallerstein, Giovanni Arrighi, Hélio Jaguaribe, Ha- Joon Chang, Alice Amsden, y Celso Furtado. Para verificar su aplicabilidad, son analizados los casos de Brasil y Turquía, dos países emergentes. Los cambios observados en la política exterior de los dos países desde 2002/2003 se relacionan a la elección del Partido de los Trabajadores en Brasil y del Partido de la Justicia y Desarrollo en Turquía, que pasaron a cuestionar las asimetrías de poder global en foros internacionales. La investigación es conducida a través de dos métodos cualitativos principales: literatura especializada en la economía política y en la política exterior de los dos países y entrevistas con representantes de los ministerios de relaciones exteriores y académicos.
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The impact of financial sector development on foreign direct investment in emerging markets

Tsaurai, Kunofiwa 02 1900 (has links)
The study investigates the financial sector development threshold levels that would influence FDI inflows. The threshold levels identified are 41.27% of stock market capitalisation for stock market turnover, 53.55% of GDP for stock market value traded, 121.53% of GDP for stock market capitalisation, 114.43% of GDP for domestic credit to private sector by banks, 144.06% of GDP for domestic credit provided by financial sector, 0.22% of GDP for outstanding domestic private debt securities and 41.26% of GDP for outstanding domestic public debt securities. The results show that higher stock market and banking sector development above the threshold level positively and significantly influence FDI inflows whilst the influence of lower stock market and banking sector development on FDI inflows was weak and less significant. Levels of private bond market development equal to or greater than the threshold level are found to have a positive but non-significant impact on FDI inflows whereas private bond market development levels less than the threshold has a weaker positive and non-significant influence on FDI inflows. On the contrary, public bond market development levels equal to or greater than the threshold level negatively influenced FDI inflows whilst levels of public bond market development less than the threshold positively but non-significantly attracted FDI inflows into emerging markets. / Business Management / Ph. D. (Management Studies)

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