Submitted by LINO MEJIA (estebanllamosam@gmail.com) on 2017-06-22T20:39:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 MasterThesis_Lino_Mejia_FGV_Ficha.pdf: 4647982 bytes, checksum: 29d2e5446d8872f2ad94a5fac6a16c72 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Maria Tereza Fernandes Conselmo (maria.conselmo@fgv.br) on 2017-06-23T21:17:44Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 MasterThesis_Lino_Mejia_FGV_Ficha.pdf: 4647982 bytes, checksum: 29d2e5446d8872f2ad94a5fac6a16c72 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-06-23T21:47:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 MasterThesis_Lino_Mejia_FGV_Ficha.pdf: 4647982 bytes, checksum: 29d2e5446d8872f2ad94a5fac6a16c72 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-05-24 / Academics have performed several studies on variance decomposition of several types of performance in context of developed economies. Nevertheless, empirical research of variance decomposition in emerging economies is more limited than that of developed economies. This study analyzes the variance decomposition of Peruvian enterprises in the period between 2010 and 2014, employing multidimensional performance measures, and thus two objectives are present. Firstly; determine the financial performance variance composition and compare this with developed economies. Secondly; determine the variance composition of productivity and compare it with the variance structure of financial performance. This empirical research is based on an original longitudinal dataset which contains financial, production and labour market information at firm level and it uses the Hierarchical Lineal Model (HLM) which provides conceptual and robust statistics for analyzing the nested structure of the data. Regarding the first objective, the empirical results demonstrate that the industry effect account for 34% and the firm effect account for 66% of the variance explained. This differs with previous studies such as Makino et al. (2004) who presented an industry effect of 18% of the variance explained in a developed economy. Regarding the second objective, three measures of performance are used to capture the multidimensional nature of performance. The dimensions are financial (measured as ROA and ROS) and operational (measured as productivity). The findings show that operational productivity model explain 65% of their variability; whereas the ROA and ROS explain 55% and 61% respectively. This study also confirms that the variance structure impacts the performance of each aggregate sector separately. For manufacturing, the result show that the percentage of industry effect is stronger than that of other aggregate sectors. For service, the industry effect (when it uses profitability measures) show similar values with some studies in the Latin American context. Finally; for wholesale & retail trade, the results confirm that the industry effect is lower than the other aggregate sector, and shows values around 4%, and therefore, firm effect ranges between 40% and 70% of the total variance. / Académicos han realizado varios estudios sobre la descomposición de varianza utilizando diversas clases de desempeño y principalmente en contexto de economías desarrolladas. Sin embargo, investigaciones empíricas sobre descomposición de la varianza en economías emergentes es más limitada que en contexto de economías desarrolladas. El presente estudio analiza la descomposición de la varianza en una muestra de empresas peruanas durante el período 2010-2014, empleando medidas de desempeño multidimensionales y, por lo tanto, dos objetivos de investigación son presentados. Primero; determinar la composición de la variación del rendimiento financiero y comparar estos resultados con los estudios en economías desarrolladas. Segundo; determinar la composición de la varianza de la productividad y compararla con la estructura de la varianza del rendimiento financiero. Esta investigación empírica se sustenta en una exclusiva base de datos en panel, los cuales contienen información financiera, de producción y de mercado de trabajo a nivel de empresa y además utiliza el Modelo Lineal Jerárquico (MLJ) el cual proporciona un método conceptual e robusto para analizar datos jerárquicos. En cuanto al primer objetivo, los resultados empíricos demuestran que el efecto industria representa el 34% y el efecto firma representa el 66% de la varianza explicada. Estos resultados difieren con estudios previos como Makino et al. (2004), quienes encontraron un efecto industria del 18% de la varianza explicada en un contexto de economía desarrollada. Con respecto al segundo objetivo, se utilizan tres medidas de rendimiento para captar la naturaleza multidimensional del desempeño. Las dimensiones son financieras (medidas como ROA y ROS) y operacional (medidas como productividad). Los resultados muestran que el modelo de productividad operacional explica el 65% de su variabilidad; Mientras que el ROA y el ROS explican el 55% y el 61%, respectivamente. Este estudio también confirma que la estructura de la varianza depende del desempeño de cada sector agregado. En el sector de manufactura, el resultado muestra que el porcentaje del efecto industria es más fuerte que el de otros sectores agregados. Para el sector servicio, el efecto industria (cuando utiliza la rentabilidad) muestran valores similares en estudios en el contexto latinoamericano. Finalmente; para el sector de comercio, los resultados confirman que el efecto industria es menor en comparación a los otros sectores, y muestra valores alrededor del 4%, y por lo tanto, el efecto firma oscila entre 40% y 70% del total de la varianza. / Acadêmicos têm realizado vários estudos sobre a decomposição da variância de vários tipos de desempenho no contexto de economias desenvolvidas. Não obstante, a investigação empírica da decomposição da variância nas economias emergentes é mais limitada do que a das economias desenvolvidas. Este estudo analisa a decomposição da variância das empresas peruanas no período entre 2010 e 2014, empregando medidas de desempenho multidimensionais, e, portanto, dois objetivos se fazem presentes. Primeiramente; determinar a composição da variância do desempenho financeiro e compará-la com as das economias desenvolvidas. Em segundo lugar; determinar a composição da variância da produtividade e compará-la com a estrutura de variância do desempenho financeiro. Esta pesquisa empírica é baseada em um conjunto de dados longitudinal original, que contém informação financeira, de produção e do mercado de trabalho a nível de empresa e usa o Modelo Hierárquico Linear (MHL), que oferece estatísticas robustas para analisar a estrutura hierárquica dos dados. Em relação ao primeiro objetivo, os resultados empíricos demonstram que o efeito setor responde por 34% e o efeito firma corresponde por 66% da variância explicada. Isso difere de estudos anteriores, como o de Makino et al. (2004) , que apresentou um efeito setor de 18% da variância explicada numa economia desenvolvida. Quanto ao segundo objetivo, três medidas de desempenho são usadas para capturar a natureza multidimensional do desempenho. As dimensões são financeiras (medidas como ROA, ROS, crescimento de ativos e receitas) e operacional (medida como produtividade). Os resultados mostram que o modelo de produtividade operacional explica 65% da sua variabilidade; enquanto que o ROA e ROS explicam 55% e 61% respectivamente. Este estudo também confirma que a estrutura da variância muda para cada setor agregado separadamente. Para manufatura, o resultado mostra que a percentagem do efeito setor é maior do que em outros setores agregados. Para serviços, o efeito setor (quando usada medidas de rentabilidade) mostra valores semelhantes com alguns estudos realizados no contexto latino-americano. Finalmente; para comércio atacadista e varejista, os resultados confirmam que o efeito setor é menor do que o outro setor agregado, e mostra valores em torno de 4%, e, portanto, o efeito firma varia entre 40% e 70% da variância total.

Submitted by Pedro Guimarães (pedroengel@hotmail.com) on 2017-12-28T19:42:52Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese.pdf: 917520 bytes, checksum: cfa05ebb1d37a4a617f387942ee05a15 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2018-01-15T18:46:52Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese.pdf: 917520 bytes, checksum: cfa05ebb1d37a4a617f387942ee05a15 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-01-16T19:08:33Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Tese.pdf: 917520 bytes, checksum: cfa05ebb1d37a4a617f387942ee05a15 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-07-28 / This doctoral thesis is composed of three chapters related to portfolio theory and model uncertainty. The first paper investigates how ambiguity averse agents explain the equity premium puzzle for a large group of countries including both Advanced Economies (AE) and Emerging Markets (EM). In the second article, we develop a general robust allocation framework that is capable of dealing with parametric and non parametric asset allocation models. In the final paper, I investigate portfolio selection criteria and analyze a set of portfolios out of sample performance in terms of Sharpe ratio (SR) and Certainty Equivalent (CEQ)

Submitted by Flávia Coelho Branco Junqueira Ferraz (fla_ferraz@hotmail.com) on 2011-10-11T19:18:35Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Versao_Final_Flavia_Ferraz_2011_PDF.pdf: 402008 bytes, checksum: 1a3fe2225f59266cad2f3a3d5bfd1554 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Vitor Souza (vitor.souza@fgv.br) on 2011-11-17T19:21:57Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Versao_Final_Flavia_Ferraz_2011_PDF.pdf: 402008 bytes, checksum: 1a3fe2225f59266cad2f3a3d5bfd1554 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2012-05-09T19:38:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Versao_Final_Flavia_Ferraz_2011_PDF.pdf: 402008 bytes, checksum: 1a3fe2225f59266cad2f3a3d5bfd1554 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-05-30 / O objetivo deste trabalho é estimar os efeitos da crise financeira recente sobre os spreads dos títulos soberanos dos países emergentes. Os resultados corroboram a visão de que a atual crise financeira teve um impacto significativo sobre a percepção de risco dos países emergentes, elevando o prêmio de risco. A taxa de crescimento da economia, a taxa de câmbio real, as reservas internacionais, as dívidas interna e externa e o VIX também afetaram significativamente os spreads soberanos. Por fim, mostramos que a percepção de risco do Brasil foi menos afetada pela crise que nos demais países emergentes. / This study aims to estimate the effects of the recent economic crisis on the sovereign bonds spreads of emerging countries. The results support the view that the current financial crisis had a significant impact on the perception of emerging country risk, raising their risk premium. The economic growth rate, real exchange rate, international reserves, domestic and foreign debt and VIX also significantly affected the sovereign spreads. In addition, we also demonstrate that the perception of the Brazilian risk was less affected by the crisis than the remaining emerging countries.

Despite the meaningful impact that credit ratings have on sovereign countries and financial markets, research has not fully explored the determinants of these ratings in many emerging markets (EMs). The aim of this study was to identify and quantify the extent to which different macroeconomic factors impact sovereign ratings. Based on a review of the literature, an analysis of rating agencies' methodology papers, and economic intuition, it was hypothesised that measures of wealth, economic growth, monetary stability, fiscal trajectory, external accounts and governance would predict EM credit ratings. This hypothesis was largely supported by regression models that anticipated actual ratings with predictive power comparable to extant research, but across a much broader set of EM countries. By identifying the key drivers of these ratings, the current research suggests several areas that policymakers can address to improve their own sovereign ratings. / Economics / M. Com (Economics)

Les Technologies de l’Information et de la Communication pour l’Enseignement (TICE) peuvent transformer profondément les pratiques pédagogiques. Cependant, pour que ce bénéfice potentiel se réalise, il faut que les solutions produites en conception puissent à la fois s’intégrer à ces pratiques et être sources d’innovation potentielles, en termes de plus-values pour les activités d’enseignement et d’apprentissage. L’objectif de cette thèse est de mettre en avant des facteurs de conception qui permettent d’articuler ces enjeux dans le cadre d’un projet de conception sur technologie émergente pour l’enseignement. Ainsi, la recherche s’intéresse à une démarche participative mise en œuvre dans la conception conjointe d’un système technique (l’application sur table interactive) et des pratiques enseignantes (par l’intermédiaire de scénarios pédagogiques). Nos hypothèses concernent les effets de différents facteurs sur l’élaboration d’un compromis entre des enjeux d’intégration et d’innovation : implication de futurs utilisateurs « pionniers » ; opportunités de confrontation de leurs hypothèses de conception ; cadrage du champ des possibles. Les analyses portent sur l’ensemble de la démarche de conception, afin de caractériser ces effets d’un point de vue longitudinal en les situant par rapport aux différentes méthodes mobilisées et à l’avancement des solutions de conception. En particulier, les justifications des choix de conception relatifs à certaines composantes de l’artefact en cours d’élaboration sont étudiées pour caractériser, d’une part, les facteurs de la conception qui ont contextualisé ces choix et, d’autre part, leurs liens avec les enjeux d’innovation ou d’intégration, voire les deux. Les résultats montrent que : (i) la mobilisation et la redéfinition des scénarios pédagogiques, l’implication d’enseignants en tant que co-concepteurs, la confrontation des solutions de conception sur prototype et en simulation et enfin le recueil des besoins favorisent la définition de caractéristiques techniques et l’intégration du système technique ; (ii) la définition des caractéristiques techniques de l’application, l’implication d’enseignants pionniers, l’identification de leurs besoins et la simulation des solutions favorisent l’adaptation des pratiques enseignantes aux caractéristiques de la technologie en vue d’optimiser son intégration ; (iii) les différentes formes de confrontation à la nouvelle technologie ainsi que les apprentissages mutuels en conception participative vis-à-vis du potentiel technique et interactif des tables interactives contribuent à l’exploitation de ce potentiel par les concepteurs ; (iv) les caractéristiques innovantes des tables interactives, l’anticipation de leurs usages potentiels en salle de classe, la mise en œuvre des solutions de conception en situation réelle, la participation d’enseignants futurs utilisateurs leur permettant de s’approprier la nouvelle technologie et l’identification de leurs difficultés actuelles favorisent l’innovation dans les scénarios pédagogiques et l’amélioration des activités d’enseignement et d’apprentissage. / Information and Communication Technologies have the potential for deeply transforming teachers’ practices. However, this requires design solutions to be adapted to these practices and, at the same time, to foster innovations, in terms of improvements for teaching and learning activities. This thesis aims at highlighting design factors that allow the articulation between these goals, in the context of a design project with emerging technologies for education. The research focuses onthe design process: joint definition of a technical system (an application on an interactive tabletop) and of teaching practices (via pedagogical scenarios); involvement of future users; design hypothesis assessment modalities; framing the scope of design possibilities. Our hypotheses concern the potential effects of these factors on the reaching of a compromise between integration and innovation related goals.Analyses cover the entire design process, in order to longitudinally examine the various design techniques used and the design process advancement. In particular, design choices related to some of the features of the artifact are analyzed to investigate the links between design factors and integration/innovation related goals.Results show that: (i) using and redefining pedagogical scenarios, involving users as co-designers, confronting the design solutions with prototypes and simulations and identifying users’ needs facilitate the technical definition of the application and its integration in future teaching activities; (ii) defining the technical properties of an artifact, involving teachers as experimenters, identifying their needs and simulating on the design solution foster the adaptation of teachers’ practices to the specificities of the technologies and optimize its integration ; (iii) allowing participants to interact with the emerging technology in different ways and the mutual learning processes between designers, regarding tabletops technical and interactional potential,help them capitalize on this potential ; (iv) identifying the innovative features of tabletops, anticipating their potential uses, testing prototypes in real class situations and involving teachers, to let them learn how to use an emerging technology and to express the existing limits of in their teaching practices, foster innovation in their pedagogical scenarios and, thus, can improve teaching and learning activities.

The purpose of this study was to gain a deeper understanding of how women experience midlife. Social constructionism, which fits within the postmodern tradition, was the epistemological framework informing this study. Participants were asked to provide their life stories in text form. Texts were interpreted using the hermeneutic method of analysis. The researcher attempted to understand the midlife experience from the perspective of each participant whose meaning, attitudes and ideas have developed within a social context, keeping in mind that the researcher's own social context, ideas and values affected the interpretation of the texts. The research results add a new perspective to the `grand narrative' of midlife as a `crisis'. The new `voice' speaks of the possibility of positive development - of overcoming adversity; taking control; re-assessing life; breaking old patterns; discovering peace; putting down roots; confronting reality; gaining independence and finding new meaning. / Psychology / MA (Clinical Psychology)

Is inflation targeting an appropriate framework for monetary policy? Experience from the inflation-targeting countries countries are optimistic about inflation targeting as a monetary-policy framework. South Africa is also following this trend. The international literature review of the topic offers lessons to be learnt from the common experience of the countries considered. It shows that inflation targeting is not a universal remedy to modern economic ills -- there is an emerging danger of assigning monetary policy a larger role than that which it can perform; a danger of expecting monetary policy to accomplish tasks that it cannot achieve; and a danger of preventing monetary policy from making the contribution that it is capable of doing. Therefore, inflation targeting cannot address all the macroeconomic problems that face many countries, except for inflation. Nonetheless, it plays a crucial role in improving macroeconomic performance. / Economics / M.A. (Economics)

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-03T16:16:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DISSERTACAO_FINAL_SERGIO.pdf: 697978 bytes, checksum: f6e9a87885f7a3521497057b99ecc18f (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-01-26 / The purpose of this essay was, trough a theoretical research for a philosophical basis, to analyze how the deontology study, observing the influences of the Emerging Educational Paradigm, may contribute for the education of the Physical education Professional and how, adhering to Freire s human being concepts, Morin, Maturana and Varela and the ongoing legislation, the higher education in this context is situated. Ethical principles were observed as remarkable for the Professional development in Physical Education, and it was confirmed this necessity throughout the essay done. Analysis tools were used, basic philosophical concepts of moral and ethical distinction in La Taille and Severino; studies of the Ethical and Bioethical preparation in Tojal; new science paradigms according to the Santos studies; of the Emerging Educational paradigm in Moraes and of the teaching learning relations in the Higher Education through the thinking of authors like Severino, Libâneo, Saviani, Cunha, Dias Sobrinho and Arroyo. / O objetivo deste trabalho foi, através de pesquisa teórica para uma fundamentação filosófica, analisar como o estudo da Deontologia, observando as influências do Paradigma Educacional Emergente, pode contribuir com a formação do Profissional de Educação Física e como, com aderência aos conceitos de ser humano de Freire, Morin, Maturana e Varella e da legislação vigente, situa-se o ensino superior neste contexto. Princípios éticos foram observados como imprescindíveis para o desenvolvimento profissional em Educação Física, e confirmamos esta necessidade no decorrer do trabalho. Utilizamos como instrumentos de análise, conceitos filosóficos básicos da distinção de moral e ética em La Taille e Severino; estudos da preparação Ética e Bioética em Tojal; novos paradigmas da ciência segundo os estudos de Santos; do Paradigma Educacional Emergente em Moraes e das relações de ensino-aprendizagem do Ensino Superior através do pensamento de autores como Severino, Libâneo, Saviani, Cunha, Dias Sobrinho e Arroyo.

[pt] Nesta dissertação avalia-se o grau de associação entre pares de excessos de retornos, simultâneos e defasados no tempo, usando-se o conceito de cópulas. Cópulas assimétricas são ajustadas aos pares de distribuições de retornos e coeficientes de dependência de cauda, as medidas de interdependência e contágio baseadas nessas cópulas, são calculados para 10 pares de índices de mercados. Tais coeficientes balizam a escolha do par de ativos com melhor desempenho em períodos de estresse. Se excessos defasados são incluídos, então estes coeficientes também indicam a direção e intensidade de propagação das crises (contágio). Os resultados encontrados na nossa investigação mostram que a técnica utilizada é eficaz na montagem de carteiras em que se pretende aproveitar os ganhos extremos conjuntos dos ativos e, ao mesmo tempo, evitar perdas extremas conjuntas. O uso de retornos defasados, porém, foi um artifício pouco producente, refletindo possivelmente o contágio quase instantâneo entre os mercados financeiros mundiais, nos dias de hoje. / [en] In this dissertation we evaluate the degree of association between pairs of excess of returns, simultaneous and lagged, using the concept of copulas. Asymmetric copulas are fitted to 10 pairs of distributions of returns of world markets índices. From these copulas coefficients of tail dependence are obtained for the right and left tails. Isong those coefficients as measures of cross dependence and contagion between markets one can pick the pair of returns that show the best performance in periods of stress. If lagged excess of returns are included, then these coefficients provide information on the direction and intensity of the contagion spread. Our results have shown that such technique isd efficent in constructing a portfolio in which one wants to take advantage of joint extreme gains of pairs of returns and, simultaneously, avoid losses associated with the occurrence of joint negative extremes. The use of lagged returns in this context hás shown no extra gain, maybe reflecting the fact that, nowadays, the spread of contagion between world financial markets is almost instantaneous.

L’Eglise est en continuelle émergence. Parce qu’elle a vocation à naître à nouveau dans chaque nouveau contexte, là où elle se retrouve en situation de postchrétienté, l’Eglise doit relever à frais nouveaux le double défi de la fidélité à l’Evangile et de la pertinence culturelle. Dans un premier temps, cette thèse explore les nouvelles formes d’Eglises qui cherchent à relever ce défi et qui voient le jour depuis quelques années et ont été identifiées sous l’appellation d’Eglises émergentes. Se développant dans les pays occidentaux, au sein ou en marge de tout le spectre des champs confessionnels, ces communautés s’essayent à pratiquer la voie de Jésus au sein des cultures postmodernes. Elles cherchent donc à être fidèles à leurs lieux et à leur temps. Centrées sur la mission, sur le développement communautaire ou sur l’innovation liturgique, ces Eglises proposent des approches variées mais ont néanmoins des lignes de force communes. Elles ouvrent la voie à une réflexion plus large sur certains enjeux ecclésiologiques contemporains, qui constitue la deuxième partie de cette étude. Faisant notamment dialoguer les auteurs du mouvement des Eglises émergentes avec le théologien missionnaire anglais Lesslie Newbigin, se dessine une Eglise missionnelle, incarnationnelle et expérientielle. / The Church is constantly emerging. With a calling to be reborn in each new context, the Church in post-Christendom must rise to the dual challenge of remaining faithful to the Gospel while being fresh and culturally relevant. In the first section, this thesis examines new types of Churches, identified as “Emerging Churches” which, in recent years, have been trying to meet this challenge. These communities, developing in western countries either within or on the fringes of the entire denominational spectrum, are trying to practice the way of Jesus within postmodern cultures. They are, thus, seeking to be faithful to their place and time. These Churches, by focusing on mission, community development or innovative worship, offer various approaches while nevertheless sharing a common driving force. They pave the way for a more open consideration of certain contemporary ecclesiological issues which make up the second part of this study. Bringing together the writings and ideas of the authors and leaders of the Emerging Church movement with those of British missionary theologian Lesslie Newbigin creates a vision of a missional, incarnational and experiential Church.