Diese Dissertation beinhaltet drei eigenständige Aufsätze, die die Interaktionen von Bewertungsmodellen für Wertpapiere, Finanzmärkten und der Volkswirtschaft untersuchen. Alle drei Papiere tragen zu einem besseren Verständnis von Verknüpfungen zwischen Finanzmärkten und Realwirtschaft. Im Mittelpunkt dieser Arbeit stehen Gewohnheitspräferenzen und Bayesianische Schätzmethoden, um sowohl theoretische als auch empirische Erkenntnisse zu liefern, die helfen, die makroökonomische und die Finanzliteratur stärker zu verbinden. Das erste Essay beschäftigt sich mit Gewohnheitspräferenzen und deren Fähigkeit, verschiedene Aktienrenditen in einem Portfolio zu erklären. Die zugrunde gelegten konsumbasierten Bewertungsmodelle basieren auf mikrofundierten Präferenzen und implizieren somit individuelles und aggregiertes Verhalten von Individuen. Aus diesem Grund werden Bayesianische Methoden genutzt, um diese a priori Information in die Schätzung einfließen zu lassen. Im zweiten Essay, einer gemeinsamen Arbeit mit Harald Uhlig, schätzen wir ein DSGE-Modell. Hervorzuheben ist, dass wir sowohl die Momente zweiter Ordnung für Wertpapierrenditen berücksichtigen als auch die a priori Wahrscheinlichkeiten für stilisierte Fakten wie Frisch-Elastizität und Sharpe ratio. Dieses Vorgehen liefert eine Modellschätzung, die gleichzeitig Fakten der Konjunkturzyklen, Momente zweiter Ordnung von Wertpapierrenditen sowie Finanzmarktfakten besser erklären kann. Das dritte Essay präsentiert ein DSGE-Modell, das die Interaktionen der Aktienmarktbooms zum Ende der 1980er und 1990er Jahre mit der Realwirtschaft erklären kann. Mit Hilfe nichtseparabler Präferenzen und nominaler Rigiditäten lässt sich der simultane Anstieg von BIP, Konsum, Investitionen, geleisteten Arbeitsstunden und Löhnen in dieser Zeit erklären. Abschließend wird die Rolle der Geldpolitik während Aktienmarktbooms diskutiert, und es werden optimale geldpolitische Regeln hergeleitet. / This thesis consists of three self-contained essays that investigate the interaction of asset prices and financial markets with the macroeconomy. All papers extend the existing literature in order to enhance the understanding of the strong degree of cross-linking between financial markets and the ‘rest of the economy’. In particular, the thesis focuses on habitually formed preferences and Bayesian techniques to yield theoretical and empirical insights, which help to reduce the existing gap between asset pricing and macroeconomic literature. The first essay examines and compares the ability of habitually formed preferences to explain the cross section of asset returns compared to successful factor models. Such consumption-based asset pricing models are based on micro- founded preferences, implying a linkage to individual and aggregate behavior. For this reason, the essay uses a Bayesian approach with a priori information derived from the empirical Business Cycle literature. In the second essay which is joint work with Harald Uhlig, we use Bayesian techniques to estimate a DSGE model. Especially, we explore a way to include conditional second moments of asset returns into the estimation. Moreover, we constrain the estimation by a priori probabilities on the Sharpe ratio and the Frisch elasticity. By doing so, the estimated model can well jointly explain key business cycle facts, different volatilities of several asset returns, and the empirically observed equity premium. The third essay presents a DSGE model, which covers the observed co-movements of stock market boom and bust episodes in the 1980''s and 1990''s and the economy. By including non-separable preferences and nominal rigidities, the model explains the simultaneous rise of consumption, output, investments, hours worked, and wages during a boom and the subsequent bust. Finally, the role of monetary policy during stock market booms is discussed, and optimal monetary policy rules are evaluated.

Consumption-based asset pricing models (CCAPMs) connect asset returns with consumption growth. The poor empirical performance of early consumption models has led to the development of a number of more sophisticated models. Nevertheless, most models focus on the US markets, and very few CCAPMs have been examined in the Australian context. Given the importance of CCAPMs, the purpose of this thesis is to examine the connections between asset returns in the Australian market and consumption variables. The thesis also extends the analysis to examine CCAPMs in an international setting. There are four essays in this thesis. The first essay undertakes a thorough investigation of the empirical support for consumption-based asset pricing models in the context of several major Australian asset classes. Using the generalised method of moments (GMM) econometric approach, my study begins with the classic CCAPM originally tested by Hansen and Singleton (1982, 1983). The empirical analysis is then extended to test more-recent specifications of the CCAPM, including the habit-formation models of Abel (1990) and Campbell and Cochrane (2000), and the time nonseparable model of Epstein and Zin (1991). For each of the models examined, the results provide cautious support for the CCAPM especially in relation to equity returns. Size-sorted portfolios (in particular, portfolios of small stocks) and fixed-income returns cause the CCAPM restriction to be rejected. It also presents results that raise questions over the benefits from extensions of the classic CCAPM, such as habit-persistence and recursive utility models. The second essay studies the empirical performance of a linearised version of the classic CCAPM in the Australian market. The studies of Faff and Oliver (1998) and Faff (1998) are extended by employing more recent data and examining 25 size/BM portfolios as well as industry portfolios. It is found that by using the lagged portfolio returns, the linearised CCAPM for both industry portfolios and 25 size/BM portfolios is generally not rejected. The third essay empirically examines conditional CCAPMs where the conditioning variables are consumption factors such as the consumption-wealth ratio proposed by Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a, 2001b), the surplus consumption ratio (Campbell and Cochrane, 1999), and the labour income to consumption ratio (Santos and Veronesi, 2006). Here long-horizon return predictability tests are conducted using these factors and cross-sectional tests on whether these factors are priced using both 25 Size/BM portfolios and industry portfolios. Utilising the Fama-MacBeth (1973) procedure, it is found that conditional models perform better than unconditional models. However, these conditional models do not outperform the Fama-French three-factor model. The fourth essay tests the world CCAPMs. Using data for 17 countries, the following are tested: the classic world CCAPM under the assumption of complete international markets integration, the heterogeneous world CCAPM under the framework of Constantinides and Duffie (1996) and the world habit models. The finding here is that a large risk aversion is needed to resolve the equity premium puzzle for the classic world CCAPM; however, adding a cross-country consumption dispersion factor into the model significantly lowers the coefficients of consumption risk aversion. Unconditional linear factor models are also studied where it is found that the world consumption growth and the dispersion of the cross-sectional consumption growth provide some explanatory basis for the variation in the cross section of excess stock returns. More sophisticated consumption models perform better than the classic world CCAPM. This thesis makes a worthwhile contribution to the research literature on CCAPMs in Australia which up to now has been limited. It performs out-of-sample tests of major CCAPMs utilising several Australian asset classes. It not only provides some insights into the return predictability of the aggregate market index in Australia, but also presents some evidence of the explanation of the cross section of stock returns using consumption variables. Further, this thesis adds to the understanding of the

[pt] Este estudo visa a ensaiar alguns passos que permitam, através de parte da obra de Monteiro Lobato, entender a contribuição do contador de histórias no processo de formação do leitor. Mesmo que de forma breve, alguns pontos da própria história de Monteiro Lobato são apresentados para se chegar ao contador de histórias e verificar mais de perto, em parte da sua obra, em especial, o Sítio do Picapau Amarelo, de que forma este sujeito age e interfere na formação leitora. Neste percurso, faz-se necessário tratar da tradição cultural da escrita e também da oralidade, quando se registra a formação do contador de histórias. Após mapear de forma cuidadosa os principais contadores que transitaram no universo Lobatiano, selecionarmos e combinarmos alguns “ingredientes” que julgamos essenciais às práticas contadoras, para em seguida, verificar possíveis “frutos” desta prática. Estão indicadas as contribuições de autores como Walter Ong, Paul Zumthor, Walter Benjamin, Roland Barthes, Umberto Eco dentre outros. O método comparativo-analítico predomina, tomados os pressupostos teóricos sobre o tema para cruzá-los com passagens selecionadas de Monteiro Lobato. / [en] This study aims to test a few steps to allow through the work of Monteiro Lobato, understand the contribution of the storyteller in the process of formation of the reader. Even if briefly, some points of the history of Monteiro Lobato are presented to get to the storyteller and check more closely, in part of his work, especially the Sítio do Picapau Amarelo, how this acts and interfere with the formation of the reader. In this way, it’s necessary to address the cultural tradition of writing and orality also, when you register the formation of the storyteller. After carefully mapping the key counters that passed in the Lobato’s universe, selecting and combining some "ingredients" that we consider essential to the practice accountant, to then investigate possible "fruit" of this practice. Are shown the contributions of authors such as Walter Ong, Paul Zumthor, Walter Benjamin, Roland Barthes, Umberto Eco, among others. The comparative method-analytical predominates taken the theoretical assumptions on the subject to cross them with selected passages of Monteiro Lobato.

No description available.

With the internationalization of financial markets, short-term capital flows to emerging market economies have become an important phenomenon in the world. The papers in this dissertation are concerned with investigating the effects of such flows in the receiving countries. The analysis is cast in a dynamic general equilibrium framework for small open economies. Two of the papers are quantitative investigations of the forces at work in small and relatively poor economies that liberalize trade and capital flows. The common approach of these papers is that of a computational experiment: calibrated simulations constitute a test of whether the models can explain certain dynamics which we observe in the data. The first paper investigates whether a calibrated two-sector neoclassical growth model can explain the magnitudes and the timing of capital flows in the Baltic countries after the fall of the Soviet Union. The results indicate that it can, and that the large and persistent trade deficits which we observe in the data need not be a reason to worry. However, the model also tells us that a reversal of capital flows and large sectoral adjustments lie ahead of the Baltic countries. In the second paper, the focus is on modelling the observed co-movement between consumption and the real exchange rate in Spain, which experienced large capital inflows following the entry into the European Community in 1986. In accordance with episodes of trade liberalization elsewhere, consumption in Spain boomed and the real exchange rate appreciated for several years after 1986. Standard two-sector models with traded and non-traded goods have problems accounting for these facts. The paper explores some mechanisms that can improve the standard modelling framework, and evaluates their quantitative importance in calibrated simulations for Spain. The third paper studies the government’s optimal bailout policy in an environment where sudden stops of capital flows cause financial crises in a small open economy. Real world events, such as the financial crises in the South East Asian countries in 1997, motivate the analysis. Compared to the previous essays, the paper is different in its nature in that it develops a highly stylized environment to analytically study the government’s optimal bailout policy. The paper shows that the government should optimally commit to a policy that only partially protects private debtors against inefficient liquidation. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögsk., 2004

Submitted by Claudio Meilman Ferreira (claudio.meilman@gmail.com) on 2017-01-05T15:53:53Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudio_Ferreira - Dissertação_Final.pdf: 1435979 bytes, checksum: f28673c2b369335f45c63beb6e43c635 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by ÁUREA CORRÊA DA FONSECA CORRÊA DA FONSECA (aurea.fonseca@fgv.br) on 2017-01-06T13:51:55Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudio_Ferreira - Dissertação_Final.pdf: 1435979 bytes, checksum: f28673c2b369335f45c63beb6e43c635 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-01-17T12:18:01Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Claudio_Ferreira - Dissertação_Final.pdf: 1435979 bytes, checksum: f28673c2b369335f45c63beb6e43c635 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-06 / The impact of economic incentives on healthier eating is unclear, particularly in the long-term (i.e., after the intervention period). This research assessed the short- and long-term effectiveness of a private nutrition company’s promotion initiative in school cafeterias in Belo Horizonte, Brazil. Two hundred and eight children and adolescents from 3 schools participated in a short-lived, lottery-based incentives program contingent on the purchase of locally promoted healthy products. One hundred and forty-four children and adolescents from a fourth comparable school served as controls. A multilevel model compared the average number of promoted healthy products purchased daily per participant before (26 weekdays), during (9 weekdays), and after (28 weekdays) the intervention period. The results indicate a clear short-term effect. The incentives program significantly increased the purchase of promoted healthy products during (vs. before) the intervention period in the treated schools, specially among girls and younger children. On average, no long-term effect was observed. The purchase of the promoted healthy products returned to pre-intervention levels immediately after the removal of the incentives program. Interestingly, a detailed analysis revealed a rather heterogeneous long-term effect based on past consumption behavior. The incentive promoted a positive long-term effect on the children who had never consumed the incentivized healthier products prior to the intervention, whereas a negative long-term effect was noted for the already habitual consumers of the targeted healthier products. Past consumption behavior must be taken into consideration for a complete understanding of the long-term effects of incentives on healthier eating. / O impacto de incentivos econômicos sobre a alimentação saudável não é claro, particularmente no longo prazo (ou seja, após o período da intervenção). Esta pesquisa avaliou a eficácia de curto e longo prazo de uma iniciativa de promoção de uma empresa de nutrição privada em cantinas escolares em Belo Horizonte, Brasil. Duzentas e oito crianças e adolescentes de três escolas participaram de um programa de incentivos de curta duração baseado em um sorteio, condicionado à compra de produtos saudáveis promovidos localmente. Cento e quarenta e quatro crianças e adolescentes de uma quarta escola comparável serviram como controles. Um modelo multinível comparou o número médio de produtos saudáveis promovidos adquiridos diariamente por participante antes (26 dias úteis), durante (9 dias úteis) e após (28 dias úteis) o período da intervenção. Os resultados indicam um efeito claro de curto prazo. O programa de incentivos aumentou significativamente a compra de produtos saudáveis promovidos durante o período da intervenção (vs. antes) nas escolas tratadas, especialmente entre as meninas e crianças mais novas. Em média, nenhum efeito de longo prazo foi observado. A compra dos produtos saudáveis promovidos retornou aos níveis pré-intervenção imediatamente após a remoção do programa de incentivos. Curiosamente, uma análise detalhada revelou um efeito bastante heterogêneo de longo prazo baseado no comportamento prévio de consumo dos indivíduos. O incentivo promoveu um efeito positivo de longo prazo sobre as crianças que nunca haviam consumido os produtos promovidos e saudáveis antes da intervenção, ao passo que um efeito negativo de longo prazo foi observado para os consumidores já habituais dos produtos mais saudáveis visados. O comportamento do consumo passado deve ser levado em consideração para uma melhor compreensão dos efeitos de longo prazo de incentivos sobre uma alimentação mais saudável.

The polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) affects women or people with female reproductive organs negatively, by irregular periods, difficulties in getting pregnant, and excessive hair growth. The symptoms can be eased by taking on habits of regular physical exercise and a balanced diet. Taking on new habits is however a challenging task. This thesis aims at harnessing the affordances (if any) that the design of gamification in a mobile application for women with PCOS could bring. The theoretical lens of self-determination theory has been used to underpin the design of gamification elements that can engage the users of an app. After creating designs and implementations in the app, evaluations were made with 29 participants through surveys and interviews. The results from the user evaluations show that participants’ thoughts on features and elements differed and that they were interested in them being designed in different ways. Designing an app that allows the user flexibility was desirable, and even viewed as motivational. Another take is that one should be careful in designing elements in a health app that uses comparing elements of gamification, since it can generate negative feelings such as anxiety. In the future, it would be interesting to include more features in the app and let users test it for a longer time to see if that would have a significant impact on the user engagement, and if habits could form for a better well-being. / Polycystiskt ovarialsyndrom (PCOS) påverkar kvinnor eller människor med kvinnliga reproduktiva organ negativt, genom oregelbunden mens, svårigheter i att bli gravid, och ökad hårväxt. Symptomen kan lindras genom regelbunden fysisk aktivitet och en balanserad kost. Att skaffa nya vanor är en utmaning. Det här examensarbetet har i syfte att se vilka möjligheter (om några) som en design av spelifiering i en mobilapp för kvinnor med PCOS kan ge. Linsen av självbestämmande teorin har använts för att stödja designen av spelifiering element som kan engagera app användare. Utvärderingar gjordes med 29 deltagare i form av enkäter samt intervjuer efter att ha skapat designer samt gjort implementationer i appen. Resultaten, baserade på deltagar utvärderingarna, visar på att användarnas tankar kring funktioner och element skilde sig åt samt att de var intresserade i olika designer för dessa. Att designa en app som erbjuder användaren flexibilitet var önskvärt, och sågs även som motiverande. En annan insikt är att designa delar av en hälsoapp som använder sig av spelifiering element där man jämför sig med andra bör ske med omsorg, då det kan medföra användaren med negativa känslor såsom ångest. Vidare vore det intressant att inkludera fler funktioner i appen och låta användare testa den en längre period för att se om det skulle ha en signifikant påverkan på användarnas engagemang, samt om vanor kunde skapas för ett bättre välbefinnande.

The purpose of this thesis was to develop methodology by which treatments for the cognitive impairments in Huntington's disease (HD) could be tested. As such, the thesis focused mainly on evaluating rats with quinolinic acid (QA) lesions of the striatum, as this manipulation mimics some aspects of the neural damage in Huntington's disease, to try to identify cognitive deficits of HD resulting from cell loss in the striatum. In the first part (Chapters 3-5), the role of the striatum in implicit memory was investigated. Chapter 3 compared the performance of rats and humans on a reaction time task that evaluated implicit memory by presenting visual stimuli with differing probabilities which change over time. Although rats made higher percentage of incorrect responses and late errors, both groups showed a similar pattern of reaction times. Chapter 4 investigated whether implicit memory (the computation of probabilities to predict the location of a stimulus) was affected by selective blockade of dopaminergic transmission at the D1 or D2 receptors by SCH-23390 and raclopride, respectively. Reaction times were slower with SCH-23390 and raclopride, but only SCH-23390 reduced errors to the least probable target location. Chapter 5 used the same task to evaluate implicit memory in rats with QA lesions of the dorsomedial striatum (DMS). Implicit memory was not affected by lesions of the DMS, which suggested that once a task that requires implicit memory has been learned, the DMS was not involved in sustaining the performance of the task. The second part of this thesis (Chapter 6), explored the contribution of the DMS in habit formation. DMS lesioned rats did not show habitual responding, and were not impaired in learning a new goal-directed behaviour. The third part (Chapters 7 and 8), investigated the role of the dorsal striatum in reversal learning, attentional set-formation, and set-shifting. Dorsal striatum lesioned rats were not impaired in reversal learning, but had a diminished shift-cost, which suggested that dorsal striatum lesions disrupted the formation of attentional sets. These results showed that although QA lesions of the dorsal striatum mimic some aspects of the neural damage in HD, they did not result in the same cognitive deficits observed in patients with HD, at least using the tasks presented in this thesis. However, other animal models of HD could be evaluated using the different tasks presented in this thesis to continue the search of a reliable animal model of HD in which treatments for the disease could be evaluated.