As the UK energy sector moves to a greater contribution from low-carbon and renewable sources it faces significant challenges in delivering affordability, security of supply and sustainability. Although hydropower in Scotland emerged on a large scale in the mid-20th century against an influential, changing wider context of energy policy, environmental regulation and debate, it is now subject to an evolving renewables agenda. This further shapes the national and scheme level characteristics of hydropower and in turn outcomes for the water environment. Contingent upon these considerations, hydropower regulation must now deliver on EU obligations to protect and improve the ecological status of water bodies, whilst also supporting domestic efforts to meet high profile binding renewable energy targets. Yet, despite an acknowledged potential for energy policy to constrain the delivery of water policy objectives, there is little policy harmonisation between disciplines. As Scotland orientates itself as a leader in Europe on climate change, transitioning to increasing amounts of renewable generation across a handful of technologies, there is a gap in knowledge about how specific renewable policies and trends can influence hydropower sustainability outcomes and regulatory challenges. This thesis therefore contributes an innovative and timely critical examination of the effect a changing wider renewable energy and policy context has on hydropower sustainability in Scotland, at a scheme and national level. This research uses an interdisciplinary, temporal analysis to identify linkages and create dialogue between disciplines and scales, informing the pursuit of sustainable renewable energy through policy and regulation in a changing world. It finds firstly, that the changing national generation mix towards an increased contribution from renewable sources, including potentially intermittent technologies such as wind power, has contributed to an alteration in the operational characteristics and reservoir variability profile of Cruachan pumped-storage scheme, presenting positive outcomes for reservoir littoral habitats. Secondly, it finds that whilst not operating in isolation, renewable energy incentive policies, through their eligibility criteria, financial reward frameworks and timing, influence hydropower characteristics and sustainability challenges, providing trade-offs but also synergies for hydropower regulation. Finally, it finds that there is a degree of divergence in hydropower outcomes and challenges in Scotland and Norway, due to the characteristics and especially interaction of wider contextual elements such as topography, profile of precipitation input, national energy needs and the role of regional and municipal government. By highlighting these linkages, this thesis is of value to energy policy and environmental regulation in Scotland and across the EU, and is seen as a first step in addressing these uncertainties and supporting a more integrated and sustainable hydropower and renewables governance framework.

Småskaliga vattenkraftverk har varit en viktig del för landsbygden på många platser runt om i Värmland under en lång tid. Men vad som en gång var en vital del för landsbygdens utveckling är idag något som hotar de naturliga bestånden av fisk och vattenlevande fauna. Småskaliga kraftverk som inte är miljöanpassade står ofta i vägen för att ett vattendrag ska kunna uppnå god ekologisk status enligt EU:s miljömål. Detta görs för att skapa en hållbar utveckling för en hållbar framtid. Men att miljöanpassa ett kraftverk är en process som är mycket utmanande, tidskrävande och dyr för de enskilda kraftverksägarna. Bara processen kan kosta över hundra tusen kronor och då är inte kostnaderna för miljöanpassningarna inräknade. Miljöanpassningarna som ofta utgörs av konstruerandet av fiskvandringsvägar kan uppnå kostnader på flera miljoner kr. Om inte kraftverksägaren kan, vill eller tillåts tillståndsprövas hotas verksamheten av utrivning vilket även det resulterar i dyra kostnader och eventuellt polisanmälan för verksamhetsägaren. Hur än ägarna gör så är de ovilligt satta i situationer där de på ett och ett annat sätt kommer förlora stora summor och utsättas för psykiskt påfrestande processer. Denna uppsats ämnar att kritiskt granska just hur de ekologiska, ekonomiska och sociala principerna i hållbar utveckling vägs mot varandra i tillsyn och tillståndsprocesserna gällande småskaliga vattenkraftverk i Värmland. / Small scale hydropower stations have been a vital part for the rural areas in Värmland, Sweden for a long time. But what once was a vital part for the rural development in the areas is today threatening the natural habitats and species in the rivers. Small scale hydropower stations that are not environmentally adapted often hinder the streams they are in to achieve good ecological status according to the environmental goals set forth by the European Union. This is done so that sustainable development and a sustainable future can be set in motion. But to adapt a small scale hydropower station is no easy feat. It's a highly challenging, expensive and time demanding for the individual owners. The process itself can cost up to several hundreds of thousands in Swedish crowns, and that's without counting the environmental adaptations that might be installed. Fish ladders are often the preferred choice and the cost of constructing one could cost several millions of Swedish crowns. if the owner of the power plant is unable, not willing or not allowed to have his/hers power plant authorized the dam risks being torn down and the owner risk getting charged with criminal activity. Whatever the owners choose to act they are stuck in between a rock and a hard place. They are forced to pay huge sums regardless of the outcome not to speak of the mental strain the processes places upon the owners. This essay aims to critically review how the ecological, economic and social principles of sustainable development are weighed against one another in the oversight process and the permission process regarding small scale hydropower stations.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar o balanço econômico de uma política de incentivos para as fontes de energia renovável, analisando em particular o caso das PCHs (Pequenas Centrais Hidrelétrica) inseridas no Proinfa, o Programa de Incentivo às Fontes Alternativas de Energia Elétrica. A análise é desenvolvida tomando por base a internalização de custos e benefícios para a sociedade do referido Programa. Dentre os benefícios, estão destacados o desenvolvimento de uma fonte alternativa de energia que diminui os impactos ambientais devidos às emissões de gases poluentes, tal como o CO2, NOx o SO2 e o material particulado. Dentre seus custos, o imposto a ser cobrado se faz necessário para que programas dessa natureza se realizem. Para tanto, a revisão da literatura se concentra em assuntos concernentes à avaliação de programas de incentivos, bem como sobre o desenho de políticas de subsídio e das formas que a economia encontra para lidar com externalidades. Em seguida, analisam-se as estruturas propostas de incentivos, verificando-se, à luz da teoria, se essas estruturas são apropriadas aos seus fins e procedendo-se a uma análise de custo/benefício destas. / This work has the objective to evaluate the economic balance of an incentive policy for renewable energy source (RES), in particular it analyses the SHP (Small Hydropower Plant) case into the Context of Proinfa, the Brazilian alternative electrical energy source incentive program. This analysis is developed considering the point of view of internalizing the costs and benefits for the society. Among the benefits could be highlighted the development of a RES that reduces environmental impacts caused by pollutant gas emissions, such as CO2, NOx, SOx and particulated material, among the costs is the tax necessary to support this kind of program. To achieve this objective, the literature revision was focused on subjects related to evaluation of an incentive program as well as on the design of subsidy policies and how the economy deals with externalities. Also it is analyzed the incentives framework proposed, verifying based on the economic theory, if this framework is suitable to its own aims, and at the end it is proceed a cost benefit analysis of this structure.

Diese Arbeit liefert, in den ersten beiden Kapiteln einen allgemeinen Überblick über die klassischen Ansätze zur Optimierung unter Unsicherheit mit einem Schwerpunkt auf probabilistischen Randbedingung. Anschließend wird im dritten Kapitel eine neue Klasse von sogenannten Probust Randbedingungen beim Auftreten von Modellen mit unsicheren Parametern mit teilweise stochastischem und teilweise nicht-stochastischem Charakter eingeführt. Wir zeigen dabei die Relevanz dieser Aufgabentypen für zwei Problemstellungen in einem stationären Gasnetz auf. Erstens liegen beim Gastransport probabilistische Randbedingungen bezüglich der Gasnachfrage vor sowie auch robuste Randbedin- gungen bezüglich der Rauheitskoeffizienten in den Rohren, welche in der Regel unbekannt sind, da es keine zuverlässigen Messmöglichkeiten gibt. Zweitens lösen wir ein Problem für einen Netzbetreiber, der zum Ziel hat, die angebotene Kapazität für alte und neue Kunden zu maximieren. In diesem Fall ist man mit einer ungewis- sen Gesamtnachfrage konfrontiert, die sich aus der probabilistischen Nachfrage für Altkunden und der robusten Nachfrage für Neukunden zusammensetzt. Für beide Fälle zeigen wir, wie mit probusten Randbedingungen im Rahmen der sogenannten sphärisch-radialen Zerlegung multivariater Gauß-Verteilungen umgegangen werden kann. Starke und schwache Halbstetigkeitsergebnisse werden für den allgemeinen Fall, in Abhängigkeit davon ob Strategien in Lebesgue oder Sobolev Räumen angenommen werden, erstellt. Für ein ein- faches zweistufiges Modell werden überprüfbare Bedingungen für die Lipschitz- Stetigkeit und die Differenzierbarkeit dieser Wahrscheinlichkeitsfunktion abgeleitet und mit expliziten Ableitungsformeln unterstützt. Diese Werkzeuge werden dann verwendet, um das Problem des Bäckers und zwei Probleme des Wasserkraftmanagements zu lösen. / This thesis offers, in the first and second chapter, a general overview of the classical approaches to solving optimization under uncertainty, with a focus on probabilistic constraints. Then, in the third chapter, a new class of so-called Probust constraints is introduced in the presence of models with uncertain parameters having partially stochastic and partially non-stochastic character. We show the relevance of this class of approach and solve two problems in a stationary gas network. First, in the context of gas transportation, one ends up with a constraint, which is probabilistic with respect to the load of gas and robust with respect to the roughness coefficients of the pipes (which are uncertain due to a lack of attainable measurements). Secondly, we solve a problem for a network operator, who would like to maximize the offered capacity for old and new customers. In this case, one is faced with an uncertain total demand which is probabilistic for old clients and robust for new clients. In both problems, we demonstrate how probust constraints can be dealt within the framework of the so-called spheric-radial decomposition of multivariate Gaussian distributions. Furthermore, in chapter four, we present novel structural and numerical results for optimization problems under a dynamic joint probabilistic constraint. Strong and weak semicontinuity results are obtained for the general case depending on whether policies are supposed to be in Lebesgue or Sobolev spaces. For a simple two-stage model, verifiable conditions for Lipschitz continuity and differentiability of this probability function are derived and endowed with explicit derivative formulae. These tools are then used to solve the Baker's problem and two hydro-power management problems.

The growing share of installed wind power in the Swedish electricity system has caused concerns whether the available regulating power will be sufficient. Several studies have examined the need of regulating power using both statistical and modelling approaches. However, there is a risk that some aspects of the short-term regulation of hydropower might have been missed. By using one of Vattenfall’s hydropower planning tools, the short-term operation of The Lule River has been simulated with an increasing penetration of wind power. The tool includes detailed models of reservoirs, generating units including efficiency curves and start/stop costs. By introducing a day-by-day simulation with a seven-day window price forecast, updated with a new wind forecast for each iteration, a 21-days scenario has been simulated. Transmission limits are disregarded and the thermal production is reduced with the average wind production. To quantify and compare the regulation capacity, the regulation factor is introduced. It reflects the ability to utilise high-price hours and considering that the need of regulating power for the short-term perspective is reflected in the price it will also reflect the regulation capacity. It is shown that the regulating factor is correlated to the discharge factor,whichis the relation between the maximum discharge to the average statistical discharge for a plant. A high discharge factor provides the flexibility to utilise the fluctuations in price. The discharge factor is adapted to the plants placement in the reach, accounting for both reservoirs located upstream and downstream, especially for The Lule River which has been designed to regulate for the fluctuations in the load. The flexibility required by the rest of the Nordic rivers is quantified for future studies. It is concluded that The Lule River is able to meet some of the fluctuations of wind power production due to the overcapacity ininstalled power. The production can, at the expense of decreased efficiency of the generating units, alter the production to suit a more fluctuating price.It is important to emphasise that The Lule River alone cannot balance a large penetration of wind power. To fully take into account the effects of a large penetration of wind power the study must be expanded to include more scenarios. The study should include different types of hydrological prerequisites and the seasonal variations in power production as well as additional rivers.

This paper analyzes, from an auction design perspective, the results of the auction of renewable energy that the Peruvian State has initiated since 2008, allowing to show significant results such as the introduction of new technologies for power generation with low CO2 emissions, competitive prices and high levels of competition. Although they are also shown the outstanding issues as the lack of clear direction and heading for future of renewable energy, as well as the need to strengthen institutions to create areas of renewable energies to integrate synergies around the energy transition. / El presente artículo analiza, desde la perspectiva del diseño de subastas, los resultados obtenidos en las subastas de energías renovables que el Estado Peruano ha iniciado desde el año 2008, permitiendo mostrar importantes resultados como la introducción de nuevas tecnologías de generación de electricidad con bajas emisiones de CO2, precios competitivos y altos niveles de competencia. También se muestran los temas pendientes como la falta de dirección y rumbo claros para el futuro de las energías renovables, así como la necesidad de fortalecer las instituciones para crear áreas de energías renovables que integren las sinergiasexistentes en torno a la transición energética.

In order to cope with the changing climate, there will be a need for mitigating transformations of a scope, speed and magnitude that are unprecedented in human history, but the consensus- and market-driven approach is inhibiting this transformation. This thesis reviews how various discourses and debates on energy policy within Swedish governments have changed between 1974 and 2017, through the lenses of energy security and depoliticisation, and how a better understanding of these debates and discourses may inform the impending large-scale transformation required to meet the challenge of climate change. Some of the main findings are that (1) nuclear power and the result of the nuclear power referendum have been decisive for energy policy, and that nuclear power will remain of vital importance in the twenty-first century. (2) Energy has become increasingly depoliticised since the 1980s, ensuing the referendum on nuclear power. (3) The discourse on energy security has shifted towards market-based solutions: in the 2000s, climate change is to be mitigated through consumer- oriented solutions such as green certificates. Through privatisation, it essentially has become up to the consumer, deciding whether to participate in mitigation of climate change.

Este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar o balanço econômico de uma política de incentivos para as fontes de energia renovável, analisando em particular o caso das PCHs (Pequenas Centrais Hidrelétrica) inseridas no Proinfa, o Programa de Incentivo às Fontes Alternativas de Energia Elétrica. A análise é desenvolvida tomando por base a internalização de custos e benefícios para a sociedade do referido Programa. Dentre os benefícios, estão destacados o desenvolvimento de uma fonte alternativa de energia que diminui os impactos ambientais devidos às emissões de gases poluentes, tal como o CO2, NOx o SO2 e o material particulado. Dentre seus custos, o imposto a ser cobrado se faz necessário para que programas dessa natureza se realizem. Para tanto, a revisão da literatura se concentra em assuntos concernentes à avaliação de programas de incentivos, bem como sobre o desenho de políticas de subsídio e das formas que a economia encontra para lidar com externalidades. Em seguida, analisam-se as estruturas propostas de incentivos, verificando-se, à luz da teoria, se essas estruturas são apropriadas aos seus fins e procedendo-se a uma análise de custo/benefício destas. / This work has the objective to evaluate the economic balance of an incentive policy for renewable energy source (RES), in particular it analyses the SHP (Small Hydropower Plant) case into the Context of Proinfa, the Brazilian alternative electrical energy source incentive program. This analysis is developed considering the point of view of internalizing the costs and benefits for the society. Among the benefits could be highlighted the development of a RES that reduces environmental impacts caused by pollutant gas emissions, such as CO2, NOx, SOx and particulated material, among the costs is the tax necessary to support this kind of program. To achieve this objective, the literature revision was focused on subjects related to evaluation of an incentive program as well as on the design of subsidy policies and how the economy deals with externalities. Also it is analyzed the incentives framework proposed, verifying based on the economic theory, if this framework is suitable to its own aims, and at the end it is proceed a cost benefit analysis of this structure.

O setor elétrico brasileiro é composto, majoritariamente, por usinas hidrelétricas, cuja operação é realizada de forma centralizada pelo Operador Nacional do Sistema (ONS). Devido às características do setor, foi criado durante a década de 1990 o Mecanismo de Realocação de Energia (MRE) com o intuito de compartilhar o risco hidrológico entre as usinas participantes deste mecanismo, o qual é medido pelo Generation Scaling Factor (GSF). Entre os anos de 2014 e 2015, o Brasil enfrentou um período de escassez hídrica que impactou negativamente o caixa dos geradores hídricos. Estes, insatisfeitos com o cenário, articularam-se junto à Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica (ANEEL) e ao Ministério de Minas e Energia (MME) para que o risco hidrológico fosse transferido para os consumidores. A agência reguladora posicionou-se contrária ao pleito dos geradores na primeira fase da Audiência Pública 32/2015, que tratou do tema em questão, entretanto o governo editou a Medida Provisória 688/2015 que possibilitou a repactuação do risco hidrológico mediante um pagamento de prêmio de risco pelos geradores hídricos. Neste contexto, esta dissertação foi desenvolvida com o objetivo principal de avaliar o processo de repactuação do risco hidrológico, a partir dos estudos sobre a evolução da Teoria da Regulação, com foco na atuação dos grupos de interesse. Os resultados indicam possibilidade em aplicar os pressupostos da Teoria dos Grupos de Interesse, principalmente a abordagem de Pelztman (1976), no processo de repactuação do risco hidrológico, demonstrando que: (i) a regulação surge como demanda dos grupos de interesse; (ii) a regulação tende a beneficiar os grupos de interesse que forem mais ativos politicamente; (iii) os agentes envolvidos no processo de regulação atuam para maximizar sua própria utilidade; e (iv) a regulação tende a beneficiar grupos de interesse cujo benefício per capita seja maior. / The Brazilian Power sector consists of hydroelectric plants, whose operation is performed centrally by the mainly National System Operator. Due to the system characteristics, during the 1990s, was created the Energy Reallocation Mechanism in order to share hydrological risk among mechanism\'s participating, which is measured by the Generation Scaling Factor (GSF). Between 2014 and 2015, Brazil faced a water scarcity period that negatively affected the hydropower generators revenue. The generators unsatisfied with this situation have started seek to influence the electricity regulatory agency and the Ministry of Mines and Energy in order to transferred the hydrologic risk to consumers. The regulatory agency has positioned itself against the claim of the generators in the first phase of the Public Hearing 32/2015, but the government has published Interim Measure 688/2015 which allowed the renegotiation of the hydrological risk through a premium risk payment by hydropower generators. In this context, this work was developed with the main objective of analysing the renegotiation process of hydrological risk, such analysis was based on the evolution of regulation theory studies, focusing on the role of interest groups. The results indicate the possibility of applying the assumptions of Theory of Economics Regulation, mainly the Pelztman (1976) approach, on the renegotiation of the hydrological risk process demonstrating that: (i) regulation is supplied in reponse to the interest groups demand for regulation; (ii) regulation is most likely to benefit the interest groups that are more active politically; (iii) agents involved in the regulatory process act to maximize their own utility; and (iv) regulation trends to benefit interest groups which highest per capita benefit.

Submitted by Geandra Rodrigues (geandrar@gmail.com) on 2018-05-10T12:15:28Z No. of bitstreams: 1 alexandredasilvafernandes.pdf: 3326554 bytes, checksum: f4dfcfe70bde99c5ebe4501f03add83e (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2018-05-22T15:33:53Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 alexandredasilvafernandes.pdf: 3326554 bytes, checksum: f4dfcfe70bde99c5ebe4501f03add83e (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-05-22T15:33:53Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 alexandredasilvafernandes.pdf: 3326554 bytes, checksum: f4dfcfe70bde99c5ebe4501f03add83e (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-02-20 / O planejamento da operação do Sistema Interligado Nacional constitui-se uma tarefa de alta complexidade, seja pela quantidade acentuada de usinas hidrelétricas e termelétricas distribuídas nos quatro submercados interligados, ou pelas características marcantes da operação das hidrelétricas, no que diz respeito às incertezas dos cenários hidrológicos futuros e aos acoplamentos espacial e temporal. O objetivo deste planejamento é a determinação de uma política ótima de despacho das usinas do sistema de modo a minimizar o valor esperado dos custos operativos no horizonte considerado. Uma importante restrição do problema é o suprimento da demanda de energia elétrica, dado pela diferença entre a carga efetiva de cada submercado e a geração das usinas não simuladas, esta última composta pela energias alternativas (eólica, solar, biomassa), pequenas centrais hidrelétricas, entre outros. Entretanto, a crescente penetração da geração renovável, aliada às incertezas das fontes naturais como eólica e solar (pois dependem de fatores climáticos e por isso são imprevisíveis), contribui com a necessidade de representação da demanda em diversos cenários para um correto despacho das usinas e uma operação do sistema mais confiável. Sabendo que os modelos oficiais atuais tratam apenas as incertezas oriundas dos cenários hidrológicos, devido à dificuldade de implementação e alocação de memória na consideração de outras incertezas na Programação Dinâmica Dual Estocástica, o trabalho desenvolvido nesta dissertação propõe metodologias que incluem os diversos cenários de demanda, além de representar com maior detalhe a geração das hidrelétricas. Além disso, são propostos algoritmos de representação analítica da Função de Custo Imediato em sistemas isolados e com múltiplas áreas na busca por uma redução das dimensões do problema tratado. Finalmente, são realizados testes em sistemas tutorias e os resultados são analisados para avaliar as performances computacionais das metodologias propostas. / The operation schedulling of Brazilian System constitutes a task of high complexity, either due to the large number of hydro and thermal plants distributed in the four interconnected submarkets, or due to the outstanding characteristics of the hydro plants, with respect to the uncertainties in the hydrological scenarios future and due to spatial and temporal couplings. The objective of this planning is the determination of an optimal dispatch policy of plants that minimizes the expected value of the operating costs in the considered horizon. An important constraint is the supply of demand, which is obtained by the difference between the effective load of each submarket and the generation of non-simulated plants, composed of renewable energies (wind, solar, biomass), small hydropower plants, and others. However, the growing penetration of renewable generation, coupled with the uncertainties of natural sources such as wind and solar (because they depend on climatic factors and are therefore unpredictable), contributes to the need to represent demand in different scenarios for a correct dispatch of the plants and a more reliable system operation. Knowing that the current official models deal only with the uncertainties arising from the hydrological scenarios, due to the difficulty of implementation and memory allocation in the consideration of other uncertainties in Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming, this work proposes methodologies that include the several scenarios demand, besides representing in greater detail the generation of hydroelectric plants. In addition, algorithms are proposed for analytical representation of the Immediate Cost Function in isolated systems with multiple areas in the search for a reduction of the dimensions of the problem. Finally, tests are performed on tutorial systems and the results are analyzed to evaluate the computational performances of the proposed methodologies.