保險業的清償能力一直是保險監理機關關心的重點，保險公司一旦失卻清償能力，所影響的將不只是該公司，還有龐大的保戶及社會大眾。自西元1988年開始，即有許多學者提出早期預警模型，針對保險公司的清償能力作預測，希望可以及早發覺問題保險公司，直到西元1994年，開始有學者以類神經網路作為預測工具，結果發現，其預測準確度較過去多篇文獻所認為的邏輯斯迴歸來的精確。 　　本論文的目的在利用新的類神經網路建構保險公司失卻清償能力的早期預警系統，並將其結果與邏輯斯迴歸之結果作比較，樣本為美國產險公司，實證結果顯示，若以類神經網路作為預測的工具，在預測破產公司方面，其結果較邏輯斯迴歸好；但若是在預測健全公司方面，則為邏輯斯迴歸較好。另外，就整體的預測準確度而言，則以類神經網路的預測結果較好。 / The solvency of insurance industry plays an important role in society and has been the focus of insurance regulation. The insurer insolvency will affect not only company itself, but also the policyholders and society. The better method up to 1994 to identify insurer insolvencies in most prior researches is logistic regression. Some scholars use neural networks to predict insurer insolvencies. The result showed that neural network performed better than logistic regression model. 　　The purpose of this paper aims to construct an early warning system for property and casualty insurer insolvencies prediction and to compare the predictive ability of neural network and logistic regression model. The results show that neural network performs better than logistic regression model in classifying insolvent insurers. On contrast, logistic regression model performs better in classifying solvent insurers. Overall, the neural network performs better than its counterpart based on all sample firms.

Marktaustrittsprozesse und förmliche Konkurs- und Sanierungsverfahren gelten als grundlegende Elemente funktionsfähiger Marktwirtschaften und können in diesem Sinne als Indikatoren eines erfolgreichen Transformationsprozesses interpretiert werden. Diese Arbeit untersucht, unter welchen Bedingungen sie sich im litauischen Übergang von der Befehls- zur Marktwirtschaft herausbildeten. Es wird gezeigt, dass bereits die frühen Reformen der Liberalisierung und makroökonomischen Stabilisierung Marktaustritte hervorriefen. Diese waren fast ausschließlich informeller Natur. Angesicht seiner mangelhaften institutionellen Voraussetzungen war das Konkursrecht in der Frühphase der litauischen Transformation nicht in der Lage die Funktionen zu erfüllen, die ihm in reifen Marktwirtschaften zukommt. Seine strikte Anwendung hätte daher die wirtschaftliche Krise verstärken können. Erst als diese überwunden schien und sich zunehmend alle Elemente einer Wettbewerbsordnung etablierten, konnte und musste auch das Insolvenzsystem an Bedeutung und Funktionalität gewinnen.

The cash conversion cycle which is a very important indicator measures how efficient a company manages its working capital. This indicator clearly points the effect of a company business operation from the cash flow point of view. Basically, it is an excellent systematic financial system that includes the function which will fully describe the important parts of daily operation behavior of a company. According to this study, the cash conversion cycle can completely show the skeleton of working capital management and its own business operation character of a company. By using the cash conversion cycle as a base, the model of working capital management cycle is created from a system dynamics method. A close-tight and highly dependent relationship between revenue and profit growth rate with the cash conversion cycle is illustrated in this model by inputting some criteria. The illustration shows: 1.The cash conversion cycle will affect a company¡¦s profitability. 2.The cash conversion cycle will affect Cash flow shortage risk. 3.The cash conversion cycle focuses on the period of time between ¡§payment and receiving¡¨. When a company¡¦s revenue increases substantially but profit is not increased accordingly, the length of time between payments and receiving shows a gap is created by increasing cash payments on production but less increasing or decreasing cash receiving on sales. This gap will gradually cause cash outflow greater than cash inflow. Although the account indicates that the company is profitable, the company business operation will still suffer from the cash shortage eventually. Of course, the company¡¦s strong refinancing ability may solve this problem. However, if the company has problem of refinancing and increasing its operation capital, the raising cash outflow from the gap will trigger off a counterintuitive of ¡§bankruptcy from the technical insolvency ¡§.

Die zentralen Fragestellungen der Arbeit sind, wie die Insolvenzwahrscheinlichkeiten von Unternehmen prognostiziert und wie sie durch zielgerichtetes Handeln beeinflusst werden können. Hierzu gibt der Autor zunächst einen ausführlichen Überblick über die derzeit in Wissenschaft und Praxis verwendeten Ansätze zur Prognose von Unternehmensinsolvenzen, Schätzgütemaßen von Insolvenzprognosen sowie Datenquellen, die für die Prognose von Unternehmensinsolvenzen zur Verfügung stehen. Anschließend entwickelt er ein kausales Unternehmensmodell, das er mit stochastischen Simulationsverfahren analysiert. Das Modell wird validiert und mit Benchmarkverfahren verglichen. Abschließend zeigt der Autor, wie das Modell zur Ableitung von Handlungsempfehlungen zur Beeinflussung der individuellen Insolvenzwahrscheinlichkeit von Unternehmen herangezogen werden kann.

Introduction Recently, companies’ bankruptcy law in Lithuania is being changed most frequently. The experience in using formal laws is ignored by legislative power while paying no attention toward it as a new source of the law. Nowadays, the legal acts involve only procedure of bankruptcy of companies, there is few theoretical and conceptual basics of the bankruptcy law. Therefore Lithuania has had no research of bankruptcy and insolvency law. Because of the predictable basic changes there are no scientists being able to make precise forecast of some changes. Therefore the need for new law ideas and issues is evidently present. Today it is common to adopt the law of other states, but it is still required to conform it to the European Union’s law standards as well as it is possible to create legal acts that are specifically accommodated to Lithuania. Nevertheless it is confirmed that many problems, which exist today, were also faced and solved in the past. That is why these solutions can be improved and used today. Research problem: Acceptation of legal acts, which have had different experience of the bankruptcy law application and adjustment of the relations between insolvent debtors and their creditors, were influenced by the diversity of law that existed in 1918 – 1940 in the Republic of Lithuania and analysis of the most significant elements that influenced the development of bankruptcy law from 1918 to 2007. During all the research period the problem of bankruptcy... [to full text] / Tiriamoji problema. Bankroto teisės suvienodinimo galimybės ir vystymasis 1918-1940 m. Lietuvos Respublikoje bei galima to laikotarpio bankroto teisės ir kitų veiksnių įtaka šiuolaikinės bankroto teisės raidai. 1918-1940 metais Lietuvos Respublikoje reguliuojant nemokių skolininkų ir jų kreditorių teisinius santykius įvairiose Respublikos dalyse buvo recepuota kelių valstybių bankroto teisė. Tiriamuoju laikotarpiu egzistavo bankroto, konkurso (kaip vienos iš bankroto rūšių), prekybos proceso įstatymų suvienodinimo problema, kuri iki 1940 m. Lietuvoje taip ir nebuvo iki galo išspręsta. Tačiau nepaisant to, kad paveldėtas visuomeninių santykių modelis nebuvo pakeistas kokybiškai nauju, visgi susistemintuose recepuotuose teisės dokumentuose buvo daromos pataisos, užtikrinusios tolimesnį kokybinį bankroto teisės vystimąsi, atitikusį tuometinius socialinius – ekonominius poreikius Lietuvos Respublikoje. Nagrinėjamu laikotarpiu jau buvo aiškūs skolininkų nemokumo, bankroto bei konkurso institutų teisinio sureguliavimo trūkumai, apibrėžtos problemos, moksliniame lygmenyje (lyginamuoju aspektu pasinaudojant kitų valstybių mokslininkų darbais) pasiūlyti jų sprendimo būdai, suformuluotos naujos idėjos bei domimasi kaimyninių valstybių, išgyvenusių analogišką bankroto teisės raidos etapą (pvz., Lenkijos), patirtimi. Darbe, analizuojant bankroto teisės taikymo problemas 1918-1940 m., nagrinėjami trys pagrindiniai to laikotarpio teisės institutai, susiję su skolininko nemokumo paskelbimu... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]

Bill C-55 proposes amendments to the Canadian Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act and the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act tailored on the procedural framework contemplated by the UNCITRAL Model Law on Cross-Border Insolvency. This thesis demonstrates that implementation of these amendments will bring Canadian insolvency law into closer---but by no means complete---alignment with the doctrine of modified universalism reflected in the Model Law. To this end, the thesis undertakes an analysis of the different theoretical approaches to cross-border insolvency, shows the importance of instrument choice in determining the level of global harmonization attained, and reviews recent projects of harmonization. This is followed by a close comparative analysis of the extent of compliance of the provisions of Bill C-55 with the Model Law, an analysis that demonstrates the shortcomings of model laws and, somewhat paradoxically, their important role and function in eventually bringing about global legal harmonization.

This article addresses the issue referred to the permanent concern over the debate about adjustment that national bankruptcy systems should have to adapt to the needs of the users, in this case, companies in difficulties, creditors, employeesand others.In the case of Peru, the author indicates the analysis of the benefits of the reform introduced in August 2015 regarding the Bankruptcy System. Despite this, the reform is minimal as to provide appropriate proposals and solutions to the underlying problems. Therefore, the bankruptcy system is not developed asa complete and efficient system for market agents. / El presente artículo aborda la temática referida a la permanente preocupación respecto del debate sobre el ajuste que los sistemas concursales nacionales deben tener para adecuarse a las necesidades de los usuarios, en este caso, empresas en dificultades, acreedores, trabajadores y otros. En el caso de Perú, se plantea el análisis de los beneficios que introdujo la reforma de agosto 2015 respecto del Sistema Concursal. Pese a esto, la reforma queda corta en cuanto a aportar propuestas o soluciones adecuadas a los problemas de fondo. Por ello, el Sistema Concursal no termina de cuajar como un sistema completo y eficiente para los agentes del mercado.

Submitted by Edileide Reis (leyde-landy@hotmail.com) on 2013-04-17T12:23:54Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Maurício Branco.pdf: 971985 bytes, checksum: b693fa8568fcc5476a46da32fc8892c9 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Rodrigo Meirelles(rodrigomei@ufba.br) on 2013-05-09T18:14:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Maurício Branco.pdf: 971985 bytes, checksum: b693fa8568fcc5476a46da32fc8892c9 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2013-05-09T18:14:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Maurício Branco.pdf: 971985 bytes, checksum: b693fa8568fcc5476a46da32fc8892c9 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2009 / O presente trabalho tem por objetivo conceituar o direito fundamental de acesso ao crédito trabalhista como um princípio informador do tratamento legislativo conferido pelo Estado às relações de emprego. Com este escopo trabalha a noção de direitos fundamentais a partir do seu fundamento de materialidade aqui identificado simultaneamente como os princípios da dignidade da pessoa humana e do estado democrático de direito. Partindo deste fundamento alcança o ideal de promoção do bem estar social como finalidade última do Estado que possui o dever de avançar na implementação deste objetivo. Em seguida analisa como reconhecimento do princípio do acesso ao crédito trabalhista atua na promoção do desenvolvimento social a partir da melhor identificação dos direitos sociais do trabalho com a raiz dignidade da pessoa humana. Traçados estes conceitos parte o estudo para análise do dever de desenvolvimento social a partir da proteção conferida ao crédito trabalhista na lei nº11.101/2005. Para tanto analisa o sistema de proteção ao crédito trabalhista contra o insucesso da empresa existente até o advento da referida Lei o que é feito através de três vetores: a teoria do risco da empresa o privilégio concursal conferido aos salários e a regra de sucessão de empregadores. Visando dispor de elementos conceituais segue o trabalho delimitando os princípios informadores do processo de insolvência da empresa positivados na Lei nº 11.101/2005 a partir dos quais analisa os mecanismos de sua superação: falência e recuperação da empresa. Uma vez identificados estes elementos passa ao estudo das modificações observadas no sistema de proteção ao crédito trabalhista contra o insucesso da empresa na Lei 11.105/2005. Por fim analisa a legalidade de tais modificações considerando o princípio de acesso ao crédito trabalhista e o dever do estado inerente à sua promoção ao que conclui indicando a inconstitucionalidade dos dispositivos que limitam o acesso ao crédito trabalhista em face do retrocesso social. / Salvador

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The current view is of magnifying of operations of credit destined to physical persons. This growing justifies by the contract of financings and loans with larger terms of paying, increasing of income and job. Being thus, in the same way as if it expands the search for credit in the financial institutions, it occurs the increasing of the index of insolvency of these operations. With this, it appears the necessity of an efficient management and control of risk making that these institutions try to perfect the quantitative techniques used in its process of analyze of concession of credit and administration of risk. Thus, the objective of this research was to propose a model of risk of credit for to esteem the probability of insolvency in the segment of physical persons in a Credit Cooperative, located in Pelotas/RS. It was identified too the profile of the cooperated from information registered in cadastre that themselves relate to the institution, trying by means of them to verify what are the variables able to explain the suggested model of risk. It was developed a study of case, based on the period of December, 2010 and it was used for analyzing data the multivaried statistic technique of multiple logistic regression. It was obtained a sample of 400 cooperated and it was tested 29 co-varied of the respective bank of data of the Unicred Automation System (UAS). In this study, the variable dependent corresponds to the situation or no of the insolvency of the cooperated in the operations of credit. The results gotten from the adjusted model indicate that only two predatory variables were statistically significant (p<0,05) for esteeming the probability of the insolvency , that are: profession dentist (OR = 7,147) and if it has the monthly income over 10 thousand until 20 thousand Reals (OR = 4,339). / O panorama atual é de ampliação das operações de crédito destinadas às pessoas físicas. Este crescimento justifica-se pela contratação de financiamentos e empréstimos com maiores prazos de pagamentos, aumento da renda e de emprego. Sendo assim, da mesma forma como se expande a procura pelo crédito nas instituições financeiras, ocorre o aumento dos índices de inadimplência destas operações. Com isso, surge a necessidade de um eficaz gerenciamento e controle do risco, fazendo com que estas instituições busquem aperfeiçoar as técnicas quantitativas utilizadas em seu processo de análise de concessão de crédito e administração do risco. Assim, o objetivo desta investigação foi propor um modelo de risco de inadimplência para estimar se um cooperado pessoa física será inadimplente ou não em uma operação de crédito junto a uma Cooperativa de Crédito Mútuo, situada em Pelotas/RS. Também, identificou-se o perfil do cooperado, a partir das informações cadastrais que os mesmos informam à instituição, buscando, por meio dessas, verificar quais as variáveis capazes de explicar o modelo de risco sugerido. Desenvolveu-se um estudo de caso, tendo como base o período de dezembro de 2010 e, utilizou-se para análise dos dados a técnica estatística multivariada de regressão logística múltipla. Obteve-se uma amostra de 400 cooperados e foram testadas 29 covariáveis do respectivo banco de dados do Sistema de Automação Unicred (SAU). Neste estudo, a variável dependente corresponde à situação ou não da inadimplência dos cooperados nas operações de crédito. Os resultados obtidos no modelo ajustado indicam que somente duas variáveis preditoras foram estatisticamente significativas (p<0,05) para estimar a probabilidade da inadimplência, que são: profissão dentista (OR = 7,147) e se possui a renda mensal acima de 10 mil até 20 mil reais (OR = 4,339).

LL.M. (Commercial Law) / When a debtor runs into financial problems and starts neglecting to satisfy his financial obligations as and when they fall due, there are various statutory procedures or remedies available to both the debtor and his creditor(s). The first and most obvious remedy available to the creditor is to demand the satisfaction of the outstanding claim by the issuance of a letter of demand, followed by a summons and subsequent court proceedings in which the creditor will claim what is due to him. If the debtor still neglects to satisfy the judgement debt, the creditor may proceed to have the judgement enforced by means of a warrant of execution in terms of which the debtor’s property will be attached and be sold at a public auction. Another procedure that is available is for either party to apply for a sequestration order in terms of the Insolvency Act.3 The Insolvency Act provides for two ways in which a debtor’s estate may be sequestrated. These two ways have their own separate requirements. The two ways are: 1. Voluntary surrender; and 2. Compulsory sequestration.