Title: M&A activity and the macroeconomic environment - a quantitative study on the impact of the macroeconomic environment on aggregate merger and acquisition activity in the US Background: There is a lack of established theories on what drives M&A activity. A subject that has received much attention in literature but produced few compelling results. The full explanation of the dynamics of aggregate M&A activity has yet to be captured. An explanation which could provide useful insights for central banks, corporate managers and any other parties affected by this prominent feature of the US economy which have come to shape and dominate the corporate landscape. Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to investigate the relationship between the dynamics of aggregate M&A activity and macroeconomic variables representing the state of the economy in the US. Method: The methodology that is used in the thesis is based on a deductive research approach with a quantitative research design. In addition, the thesis has also made use of a longitudinal panel research. The thesis hypotheses have been formulated using earlier research and existing theories about the subject of mergers and acquisitions as well as macroeconomic factors. Further on, the data set that has been analyzed consisted of 73137 transactions during the time period January 1, 1980 - January 1, 2020. Conclusion: The study finds that there are signs of relationships between macroeconomic variables and aggregate M&A activity, although the precise characteristics of these relationships has not been established. The result of the study indicates that the macroeconomic environment as a whole affects aggregate M&A activity and that it can be an important part of the explanation for the dynamics of aggregate M&A activity. It cannot be established that macroeconomic variables can be used to predict M&A activity, however there are interesting indications suggesting this might be the case.

In the present study, a neoclassical general equilibrium model is developed to study the dualistic economic development of a predominantly agrarian economy, Bangladesh. Quantitative analysis is undertaken in order to make assessments of several development strategies within the framework of the model. The linkages between the agricultural (rural) and the manufacturing (urban) sectors via the output and labour markets are incorporated in the model and empirical analysis. In specifying the aggregate relations in the model especially those of the rural sector, the analysis is based on the microeconomic relations of a 'representative peasant household'. The approach is to first estimate the structural parameters of the model (simultaneous system) and then to perform simulation exercises. These simulations permit us to move beyond the restrictions of growth theory, since the direction of influences on different variables and their quantitative dimensions may be assessed. The aim is to determine the differential impact of exogenous investments and related public policy measares on the two sectors, especially on the level of employment, output and wages. Within a disequilibrium growth process which allows for differences in wages in the two sectors, the impact of rural-urban migration of people on the economy of Bangladesh and its policy implications are assessed. The policy simulations suggest that strategies which favour agricultural rather than industrial development have a more positive impact on output, employment, and the reduction of rural-to-urban migration of people. / Thesis / Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

This thesis presents a foreign policy decision-making analysis of Kazakhstan's foreign relations in the initial post-independence period. The study applies a neoclassical realist theoretical framework in order to provide the understanding of Kazakhstan's external behaviour. The thesis conceptually assumes that the integration of the presidential decision-making element in the analysis of the republic's foreign policy is essential to account for Kazakhstan's foreign strategies, which would otherwise appear to be anomalous from the deterministic perspective of the structural theories of international relations. The set objective of the work is to produce a theoretically informed historical narratives of Almaty's policymaking during three episodes in the republic's diplomatic history – the elaboration of a distinct balancing strategy; the relinquishment of the nuclear arsenal; and the Nagorno-Karabakh peace mission. The reconstruction of events behind the decisions made by president Nursultan Nazarbayev and his key advisors through the assessment of primary materials sourced from the archives of Kazakhstani foreign policy demonstrates that foreign decision-making process played a crucial role in the identification of national interests and development of appropriate policy responses in each of the episodes under examination. Chapter IV illustrates how the nation's policymakers developed a unique balancing strategy to ascertain the country's sovereignty and eliminate security risks under overwhelming geopolitical pressures that emanated from Russia and China. Chapter V discusses the episode when Nazarbayev was subjected to direct international pressure to surrender the inherited Soviet nuclear arsenal on the terms imposed by the USA, in response to which Nazarbayev devised a deliberately ambivalent and protracted strategy in regard to the republic's nuclear status. Chapter VI reveals the adaptability of the republic's policymaking to the changing international context as the regression of the Nagorno-Karabakh peace initiative demonstrates. The exposition of intricate policy planning and profound diplomatic endeavours reflected in archival documents reinforces the thesis's premise about the non-deterministic nature of Kazakhstan's foreign policy.

This thesis asks why Japan decided to procure BMD if it meant building an infrastructure which, because of its technological nature, had the potential to disrupt Japan’s preferred security strategy of hedging, that is, maintaining ambiguity of commitment, vis-à-vis China and the US. The investigation was divided into three parts dealing with the following questions – Why did Japan's BMD procurement matter? Who mattered? Why were the BMD and related decisions made? Such a structure of research was informed by “neoclassical realism,” according to which the relative material power of a country sets the parameters of its foreign policy, but the policy choices within these international constraints are made by political elites. A range of policymaking heuristics were used to investigate the domestic element of the approach. In addition to the conventionally specified policymaking actors such as MOD, MOFA, Prime Ministers, an original attempt was made to identify the possible influences of several elite networks. On the basis of the notes from the Japan-US Security Strategy Conference, two elite networks were analysed, namely the Japan’s Congressional National Security Research Group and Japan-US Centre for Peace and Cultural Exchange. It was concluded that they have probably had some influence on shaping Japan's BMD decisions. The conclusion of this research is that BMD was procured despite its disruptive potential because it was a tool of shifting Japanese policy from one hedging policy to another, that is, from one based on self-imposed restraints toward one exercised from the position of military strength. An analysis of international relations in East Asia in 1994-2007 and an analysis of the views of the security elites make Japan's transition toward a military strength-based hedging appear rational and confirm BMD's utility as a tool in this transition. Some negative consequences of a possible disruption to hedging, induced by BMD, can be contained exactly because of such a reformatting of hedging.

A maioria dos trabalhos sobre o impacto macroeconômico da abertura da conta de capital não encontra nenhum efeito da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais. No entanto, uma leitura cuidadosa desta literatura revela que a maioria destes estudos não trata realmente da teoria que se propõe a testar. Aqueles que defendem um impacto positivo da liberalização financeira sobre o crescimento econômico aceitam as previsões do modelo de crescimento neoclássico de redução permanente no custo do capital e aumento temporário no investimento nos mercados emergentes, quando estes liberalizam suas contas de capital. A maior parte dos artigos que não encontram efeitos da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais não testa estas previsões. Uma ramificação pequena, mas crescente, desta literatura sobre a relação entre liberalização da conta de capital e crescimento econômico, que leva em conta a natureza temporal das previsões do modelo neoclássico (os artigos que adotam o chamado enfoque do experimento de política), encontra evidências de que a abertura da conta de capital em um país emergente gera efeitos significativos sobre o investimento e crescimento econômico. A desagregação dos dados, ou seja, a aplicação do enfoque do experimento de política a dados de firmas, fornece uma ligação mais forte com a teoria e graus de liberdade suficientes para se adotar uma nova estratégia de identificação que permite testar a eficiência na alocação dos recursos dentro do país em desenvolvimento que abriu sua conta de capital. O objetivo desta dissertação é tratar das teorias e evidências do impacto da liberalização da conta de capital nos países emergentes sobre o crescimento de suas economias, analisando-se as metodologias empíricas existentes aplicadas no teste desta relação, enfatizando as teorias que dão suporte a seus testes empíricos, bem como suas principais descobertas. Os efeitos da abertura da conta de capital no Brasil, na década de 90, serão analisados, utilizando-se uma estratégia de identificação recente a partir de dados de firmas, para se checar a validade empírica das previsões do modelo de crescimento neoclássico nesta situação. / Most writings on the macroeconomic impact of capital account openness find no effects of liberalization on real variables. However, a critical reading of this literature reveals that most of these studies do not really address the theory they set out to test. Those who defend a positive impact of financial liberalization on economic growth accept the neoclassical growth model’s predictions of permanent reduction on the cost of capital and temporary increase in investment in emerging markets when they liberalize their capital account. The lion’s share of papers that find no effect of liberalization on real variables do not test these predictions. A small but growing branch of this literature on the relationship between capital account liberalization and economic growth that takes the time series nature of the neoclassical model’s predictions seriously (papers that adopt the policy-experiment approach) find that opening the capital account within an emerging country generates significant effects on investment and economic growth. Disaggregating the data, that is to say, applying the policy-experiment approach to firm-level data, provides a tighter link to the theory than aggregate data and enough degrees of freedom to adopt a new identification strategy that allows of the test on the efficiency of capital allocation within the developing country that opened its capital account. The objective of this dissertation is to address the theories and evidences of the impact of capital account liberalization in emerging countries on their economic growth, analyzing the existing empirical methodologies applied to test this relationship, emphasizing the theories that support their empirical tests as well as their main findings. The effects of capital account opening in Brazil, in the 90’s, will be analyzed, using the recent firm-level data identification strategy, to check the empirical validity of the neoclassical growth model’s predictions in this situation.

Nous étudions les liens entre commerce international et soutenabilité. D’un point de vue théorique, la soutenabilitéest l’application de la théorie utilitariste à la théorie du capital. La soutenabilité se définit par unegestion équitable des moyens du développement. Il s’agit de préserver un certain niveau de consommation etde richesse tout en développant l’équité inter- et intragénérationnelle sous la contrainte du niveau socialementdéfini de substituabilité en valeur monétire des composants de la richesse. Les gains à l’échange issus du commerceinternational doivent être épargnés et réinvestis dans la mesure où ils sont le fruit d’une réallocationdes ressources au sein du pays considéré. La nature du commerce international a également un impact sur lessentiers de développement. La présence de rendements d’échelle croissants dans la division internationale desprocessus productifs a également un impact sur la soutenabilité. Nous montrons la façon dont les incitationsvenant du commerce international ont un impact joint sur la gestion des dotations dans les pays riches enressources naturelles. Un commerce inter-industries dans les secteurs des biens intensifs en ressources naturellesest un signe probable d’un sentier de développement insoutenable. Nous proposons d’étudier les pays issus del’Union Soviétique pour mieux comprendre les interactions entre institutions et soutenabilité. l’Epargne NetteAjustée (ENA) en Russie évolue de concert avec celle des pays voisins, sans lien avec celle d’autre pays ayantune même dotation en ressources naturelles. Nous préconisons d’utiliser des études contrefactuelles pour évaluerles trajectoires de développement dans un contexte d’uncertitude sur les niveaux réels de richesse globale.L’ensemble de ces éléments nous conduit à revisiter les logiques d’intégration économique dans une optique desoutenabilité. / We endeavour to explore the many ways by which international trade has an impact on sustainability.From a theoretical perspective, sustainability is the application of the utilitarian theory of value on capitaltheory, used to define the interactions between human-being and their environment. We show how sustainabilitycan be understood as sound and equitable management of the means of development, preserving consumptionand wealth over time while fostering intragenerational and intergenerational equity and controlling for moneyvaluesubstitutability. We use Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) to assess how opening economies to trade altersdevelopment paths. We then show how international trade should lead to additional savings, as gains fromtrade resulting from resources reallocation should be reinvested and not consumed. We explore how the natureof trade impacts development paths, showing how increasing returns to scale in the international division of theproduction processes changes factor prices. This should lead to more gains from trade saved and reinvested.We investigate how institutions and trade incentives interact in hindering sustainable management of naturalcapital in resource abundant countries. We show how inter-industry trade in natural resources intensive goodsmight be a sign for unsustainable development paths. To better understand interactions between institutionsand sustainability, we suggest the dislocation of the Soviet Union as a natural experiment. We show how theevolution of ANS in the Russian Federation is closely correlated with the neighbouring countries, regardless ofresources abundance. Counterfactual studies should be used to monitor sustainable development in the wakeof uncertainty and scarce data on comprehensive wealth depreciation. Those elements lead us to conclude onthe necessity to reconsider the rationale for economic integration on sustainability lines.

Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2007

Syftet med den här studien är att undersöka om utbildningens kvalitet har en signifikant påverkan på ekonomisk tillväxt. I uppsatsen tillämpas en regressionsanalys baserad på sekundärdata. Den beroende variabeln är real BNP per capita tillväxt vilken används för att mäta ekonomisk tillväxt. Den oberoende variabeln i fokus är testresultat från internationella prov och används som mått för utbildningens kvalitet. Kontrollvariabler i uppsatsen är initial BNP per capita, genomsnittlig utbildningstid, fertilitet, investeringar och graden av handelsöppenhet. I studien ingår data för 49 länder och omfattar åren från 2000 till och med 2010. I regressionsmodellen som inkluderar samtliga kontrollvariabler visar testresultatvariabeln en signifikant positiv relation till ekonomisk tillväxt. Det här betyder alltså att utbildningens kvalitet har en påverkan på ekonomisk tillväxt. Utifrån detta går det att härleda ett antal teoretiska förklarningar till hur utbildningens kvalitet har kunnat påverka ekonomisk tillväxt. I och med innovationer i informationsteknik samt den generella teknologiutvecklingen som präglat 2000-talet, dras slutsatsen att utbildningens kvalitet troligtvis har påverkat utvecklandet av färdigheter relaterade till innovationsförmåga och anpassningsbarhet till ny teknologi hos individer. Det här i följd har påverkat den ekonomiska tillväxten i ett land. / The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the quality of education has a significant impact on economic growth. This paper applied a regression analysis based on secondary data. The dependent variable is real GDP per capita growth, which is used to measure economic growth. The independent variable in focus is test results from international tests and is used as a measure of educational quality. Control variables in the paper are initial GDP per capita, average years of schooling, fertility, investments and the degree of trade openness. The study includes data for 49 countries and covers the years from 2000 to 2010. The regression model that includes all control variables shows that the test result variable has a significant positive relationship to economic growth. This means that the quality of education has an impact on economic growth. Based on this it is possible to derive a number of theoretical explanations of how the quality of education has been able to influence economic growth. With innovations in information technology, as well as the general technology trend that characterized the 2000s, it’s concluded that the quality of education is likely to have influenced the development of skills related to innovation and adaptability to new technologies in individuals. Consequently, this affects the economic growth of a country.

Lietuvoje vyrauja dideli ir augantys tarpregioniniai skirtumai, kurie matomi ne tik tarp pirmaujančių ir atsiliekančių regionų, bet ir tarp regionų lyderių. Todėl iškyla dilema ar regioninė politika suformuluota ir nukreipta taip, kad ateityje bus pajėgi ne tik skatinti regionų plėtrą, bet ir mažinti netolygumus. Regiono plėtra yra sudėtingas procesas, kuriam suprasti ir paaiškinti tikslinga naudoti ekonominius modelius. Iš ekonominių modelių įvairovės darbe pasirinkta naudoti pritaikytą regionų augimui neoklasikinį augimo modelį, nes būtent šis modelis aiškina regionų netolygaus augimo priežastis, vietinių išteklių pagrindu. Darbą sudaro dvi dalys. Pirmoje dalyje „Regioninė plėtra ir regioninė politika: teoriniai ir taikomieji aspektai“ aprašomos regiono ir regioninės plėtros koncepcijos, teorijos, žmogiškųjų išteklių, kapitalo ir technologijų pažangos įtaka regionų vystymuisi. Šioje dalyje pateikiami regioninės politikos pagrindiniai teoriniai aspektai bei aprašomos regioninės politikos priemonės regionų plėtrai skatinti. Antroje darbo dalyje „Vilniaus ir Alytaus regionų plėtros tyrimas“ socialinių-ekonominių rodiklių pagalba įvertinama Vilniaus ir Alytaus regionų sanglauda ir techninės pažangos augimo modelio pagrindu identifikuojamos netolygaus regionų augimo priežastys. Be to, analizuojama Lietuvos regioninė politika, politikos tikslai ir įgyvendinimo priemonių efektyvumas. Šioje darbo dalyje išskiriama Lietuvos regionų augimo skatinimo specifika, analizuojama Europos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / Regional development becomes important issue of the European Union and Lithuania regional politics, because only developed region can entrench the secured position in the globalized world. Moreover, regional development is closely related with people and their well-being. In order to achieve this, stable and coordinated regional development is needed. This should be done by integrating effective regional policy instruments. Regional development is complexible process. So, economical models is needed and used to explain regional development. From variety of economical models the neoclassical growth model was chosen to explore the causes of widening regional growth disparities. The work consists of two parts. The first part deals with general theoretical and adaptable aspects of the region, its development as well as the regional growth and development models for regional development. In this part the explanation of impact of human resources, capital and technical progress is given. Also, this part proposes the theoretical overview about regional policy, including the conception of regional policy, the instruments which influence regional development. In the second part economical and social indicators are used for analysis of Vilnius and Alytus regions, the convergence of regions is evaluated and regional growth disparities between Vilnius and Alytus regions is evaluated by using neoclassical growth model. The second part analyzes the regional policy and its goals of... [to full text]

A maioria dos trabalhos sobre o impacto macroeconômico da abertura da conta de capital não encontra nenhum efeito da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais. No entanto, uma leitura cuidadosa desta literatura revela que a maioria destes estudos não trata realmente da teoria que se propõe a testar. Aqueles que defendem um impacto positivo da liberalização financeira sobre o crescimento econômico aceitam as previsões do modelo de crescimento neoclássico de redução permanente no custo do capital e aumento temporário no investimento nos mercados emergentes, quando estes liberalizam suas contas de capital. A maior parte dos artigos que não encontram efeitos da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais não testa estas previsões. Uma ramificação pequena, mas crescente, desta literatura sobre a relação entre liberalização da conta de capital e crescimento econômico, que leva em conta a natureza temporal das previsões do modelo neoclássico (os artigos que adotam o chamado enfoque do experimento de política), encontra evidências de que a abertura da conta de capital em um país emergente gera efeitos significativos sobre o investimento e crescimento econômico. A desagregação dos dados, ou seja, a aplicação do enfoque do experimento de política a dados de firmas, fornece uma ligação mais forte com a teoria e graus de liberdade suficientes para se adotar uma nova estratégia de identificação que permite testar a eficiência na alocação dos recursos dentro do país em desenvolvimento que abriu sua conta de capital. O objetivo desta dissertação é tratar das teorias e evidências do impacto da liberalização da conta de capital nos países emergentes sobre o crescimento de suas economias, analisando-se as metodologias empíricas existentes aplicadas no teste desta relação, enfatizando as teorias que dão suporte a seus testes empíricos, bem como suas principais descobertas. Os efeitos da abertura da conta de capital no Brasil, na década de 90, serão analisados, utilizando-se uma estratégia de identificação recente a partir de dados de firmas, para se checar a validade empírica das previsões do modelo de crescimento neoclássico nesta situação. / Most writings on the macroeconomic impact of capital account openness find no effects of liberalization on real variables. However, a critical reading of this literature reveals that most of these studies do not really address the theory they set out to test. Those who defend a positive impact of financial liberalization on economic growth accept the neoclassical growth model’s predictions of permanent reduction on the cost of capital and temporary increase in investment in emerging markets when they liberalize their capital account. The lion’s share of papers that find no effect of liberalization on real variables do not test these predictions. A small but growing branch of this literature on the relationship between capital account liberalization and economic growth that takes the time series nature of the neoclassical model’s predictions seriously (papers that adopt the policy-experiment approach) find that opening the capital account within an emerging country generates significant effects on investment and economic growth. Disaggregating the data, that is to say, applying the policy-experiment approach to firm-level data, provides a tighter link to the theory than aggregate data and enough degrees of freedom to adopt a new identification strategy that allows of the test on the efficiency of capital allocation within the developing country that opened its capital account. The objective of this dissertation is to address the theories and evidences of the impact of capital account liberalization in emerging countries on their economic growth, analyzing the existing empirical methodologies applied to test this relationship, emphasizing the theories that support their empirical tests as well as their main findings. The effects of capital account opening in Brazil, in the 90’s, will be analyzed, using the recent firm-level data identification strategy, to check the empirical validity of the neoclassical growth model’s predictions in this situation.